巴塞罗那国际事务研究中心-欧盟南部地区城市的气候弹性.欧盟绿色协议的机遇（英）-2021.11-38正式版

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU’sSouthernNeighbourhood

Opportunitiesfor

theEUGreenDeal

HannahAbdullah,KarimElgendyandHanneKnaepen

Thestudyispublishedintheframeworkofthe

CascadingClimateImpacts(CASCADES)Project(2019–2023),fundedthroughtheEuropeanCommission’sHorizon2020programme,see

www.cascades.eu.

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU’sSouthern

Neighbourhood:OpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDeal

HannahAbdullah,KarimElgendyandHanneKnaepen

November2021

Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced

ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanicalincludingphotocopying,recordingoranyinformationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthecopyrightholder.Pleasedirectallenquiriestothepublishers.

Photocredit:Copyright©iStock

Contents

Acknowledgements

Summary

Introduction

UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilience

Acloserlookaturbanresilienceinthreecities

BringingtheGreenDealtotheSouthernNeighbourhood:Anopportunitytostepupcooperationwithcitiesaroundthewater-energy-foodnexus

Recommendations

Bibliography

Abouttheauthors

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ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU’sSouthernNeighbourhood

Acknowledgements

Wewouldliketothankthefollowingfortheircontributiontothisreport:SarahArbezofCitésUniesLiban;HajarKhamlichiofMediterraneanYouthClimateNetwork;AbdellatifMahmoudofAssociationFédérativedesExpertsetConsultantsdelaCoopérationTechniqueInternationale(AFECTI);MohamedSefiani,MayorofChefchaouen;GladaLahnandChrisAylettoftheEnvironmentandSocietyProgrammeatChathamHouse;AutumnForecast,RichCarterandIanBlenkinsopofSoapbox;andSarahFinch.

Summary

Summary

CitiesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaarealreadysufferingtheeffects

ofclimatechange.Weakurbanregulation,ineffectiveclimatepolicies,limiteddecentralizationandinsufficientempowermentoflocalauthoritiesandcivilsocietyfurtherdecreaseurbanresilience.Futureclimatescenariosandprojectedurbangrowththreatenthestabilityoftheregion;withpotentialnegativeknock-oneffectsonEurope.ThisCASCADESSpotlightStudyexaminesclimatevulnerabilities

inurbanareasincountriestothesouthoftheEUandthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionandadvocatesforsystemicapproachestoaddressingurbanclimateresiliencebystrengtheningthewater-energy-foodnexus,aswellasotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludeswithrecommendationsonhowtheEuropeanGreenDealcanhelpcitiesintheregionadapttoclimateimpacts,basedonawater-energy-foodnexusapproach.

Overthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhassteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience.AnincreasingnumberofprogrammesfinancedundertheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)Southhaveaddressedurbanclimateresilienceinresponsetotheregion’srapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities.

ThenumberofurbandwellersinthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionisestimatedtoreach527millionin2050,anincreaseof72%comparedto2020.Atthesametime,climateimpacts–includingbothslowonsetchangesandsuddendisasters–areputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.Thisstressisaggravatedbyweakurbanregulationsthathavecreatedunsustainabledevelopmenttrendswhichunderminethepotentialbenefitsofurbanizationandadverselyaffecturbanclimateresilience.Theprevalenceofhighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreformshamperlocalcapacitybuildinganddecision-making,whichareprerequisitesforeffectiveadaptationandresilience.

Theconvergenceoftheregion’sharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio-economicburdenscanexacerbateexistingpoliticalinstability,conflict-inducedmigrationandpoverty.ThesedevelopmentscouldcascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,tradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththeSouthernNeighbourhood.TheEU’sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonurbaninfrastructureandclimategovernanceisafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregion’sintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.However,thisapproachisstillintheearlystagesandthereisaneedtoreflectonlessonslearnedandhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolvingintheregion.

ThisstudysuggeststhattheEU’soverwhelmingfocusonsupportingcitiesintheregionwithenergyefficiencyandthetransitiontosustainableenergysystemsisnotenoughtostrengthenurbanclimateresilience.IncitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood,whichtypicallystrugglewithresourcemanagementandscarcity,climateresiliencewillincreasinglydependonlocalcapacitiestoformulateandimplementnexusapproaches,especiallyinthewater,energyandfoodsectors.Basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,thestudyadvocatesforasystemicapproachtoaddressingurbanclimate

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU’sSouthernNeighbourhood

resilienceinSouthernNeighbourhoodcities.Consideringtheestablishedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,thepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilealsohighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludesbyexploringhowfutureexternalactionaroundtheEuropeanGreenDealanditsambitionsforsystemictransformationcouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodaroundthewater-energy-foodnexus.

Introduction

Introduction

Overthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhasprogressivelysteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience,signallingitsrecognitionoftheimportantrolelocalgovernmentsplayinthetransitionto

aclimate-neutralEurope(Kern,2019;Abdullah,2021).Inlinewiththeseefforts,thestrategistsbehindtheEuropeanGreenDeal(EGD)stressthatcities“willhaveahugeroletoplayinthefundamentaltransformationthattheGreenDealistodriveinoursocieties”(EuropeanCommissionVicePresidentFransTimmermansquotedinEuropeanCommitteeoftheRegions,2019).ThenewClimate-NeutralandSmartCitiesmissionrunbytheHorizonEuroperesearchandinnovationprogramme,whichsupportsandshowcasescitiesasinnovationhubsthatcanaccelerateandleadontheEGD,isoneexampleofpioneeringinitiativesunderway(EuropeanCommission,n.d.a).Asurbanexperimentationwithclimatemitigationhasshown,citiesaretheoptimalscalefortheelaborationandimplementationofpolicyinnovation(Bulkeley&CastánBroto,2012).Theyarelargeenough

totestandpilotnewideasbeforemodellingsolutions,andsmallenoughtodiscardthemiftheydonotworkwellwithoutexcessivecosts.

Climateresilienceatsubnationallevelhasalsobecomeafocusareaofthe

EU’sworkwithitsneighbourstothesouth.TheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)isaforeignrelationsinstrumentforcooperationwithneighbouringcountriesandtheSouthernNeighbourhoodcoverstenpartnercountries:Algeria,Egypt,Israel,Jordan,Lebanon,Libya,Morocco,Palestine,SyriaandTunisia.Inresponsetotheregion’srapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities,

anincreasingnumberofprogrammesfinancedunderENP-Southaddressurbanclimateresilience.Inaddition,theUnionfortheMediterranean(UfM)–theintergovernmentalorganizationofthe27EUmemberstatesand15partnercountriesfromtheMediterraneanbasin–adopteditsfirstUrbanAgendain2017(UfM,2017),signallingthepoliticalwillingnesstoestablishamorecoordinatedapproachtourbanpolicy,includingonclimateresilience.

Despitebeinghometosomeoftheoldestcontinuouslyinhabitedcitiesoftheworld,theMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region,whichextendsfromtheMaghrebinnorthwestAfricatotheLevant,Iraq,andtheArabianPeninsula,isalatecomertourbanizationcomparedtoEuropeandNorthAmerica.WhilewesternEuropeurbanizedinthe19thcentury,reaching40%urbanpopulationatthebeginningofthe20thcentury,urbandwellersintheMENAregionrepresentedonly16%ofthetotalpopulationatthattime.Duringthe20thcentury,theglobalizationofhinterlandsallowedcitiesoftheMENAregiontoovercometheirlimitednaturalresources,whichfuelledrapidgrowthinurbanization.Theregion’surbanpopulationgrewfrom35%ofthetotalinthe1960sto65%today,andremainshigherthantheglobalaverage(WorldBank,2021;Elgendy&Abaza,2020).

Estimatesprojectthatthenumberofurbandwellersintheregionwillreach381millionin2030and527millionin2050,thenumberofcitieswithonetofivemillionresidentswillincreasesignificantly,andthemajorityofurbanagglomerationswillgrowatanannualrateofonetothreepercent(UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,2018b).Atthesametime,climatehazardsandchangeareputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.TheArabregionwillbecome

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU’sSouthernNeighbourhood

hotteranddrier,withexpectedincreasesinaverageannualtemperatures

of1.2°C–2.6°Cbythemiddleofthe21stcenturyandupto1.5°C–4.8°Cbytheendofthecentury,dependingontheclimatechangescenario.Temperatureincreasesareexpectedtobemorepronouncedinthesummer,andinnon-coastalcities.Averagemonthlyrainfallwillreduce,particularlyincoastalcities,whichwillleadtoincreasedaridity(UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2017).Theprojectedtemperatureincreasesdonotcapturethetemperatureextremes,whichareexacerbatedbyurbanbuild-upandalreadyexceedwhaturbaninfrastructurecanwithstandinmanyplaces.Citiesacrosstheregion,includingDamascusandBaghdad,witnessedrecordtemperaturesinthesummerof2020,increasinghealthriskstoresidents(Alahmadetal.,2020;Al-Bouwarthanetal.,2019).

Theseclimateimpactsandstressorsarefurtheraggravatedbygenerallyweakregulation(weaklawsorweakenforcementorboth)thathasallowedunsustainableurbandevelopmenttrendsthatadverselyaffecturbanclimateresilience.Energyandwaterinefficiency,inadequatedrainage,buildingonnaturalfloodplainsand

alackofalternativemobilitymodesarecommonfeatures.Inpart,thelackofurbanplanningisduetohighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreforms,whichhamperlocalcapacitybuildingandlocaldecision-making.Administrations,bothcentralandlocal,areoftenunabletokeepupwithurbanexpansionandrisingdemandforessentialservices,especiallywater,energyandwastemanagement.Theresulthasbeenanexplosionofinformalactivitiesandagrowinggapinstandardsbetweenprivateandpubliclymanagedspaces(Elgendy&Abaza,2020;Farhan&Al-Shawamreh,2019;Piffero,2009).

Theconvergenceofharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio-economicburdenswillexacerbateexistinginequalitiesandcauseincreasingpoverty.Thiscouldleadtosocialandpoliticalinstability,andpossiblytoconflictsthatwouldinturninducefurtherpovertyandmigration(Abouelnaga,2019).Europewillnotbeinsulatedfromthesepotentialchainsofevents,whichwilllikelycascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,supplychainandtradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththecountriesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood.

Theconvergenceofharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio-economicburdenswillexacerbateexistinginequalitiesandcauseincreasingpoverty

TheEU’sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonclimategovernanceintheSouthernNeighbourhoodhasbeenafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregion’sintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.ProgrammeslaunchedundertheENP(seeBox1,page25)havemainlyassistedmunicipalitiesandgovernorateswiththepreparationofsustainableenergyandclimateactionplans,andrecentyearshavealsoseennascentexperienceinfinancingandimplementationofthoseplans(Almasri&Sarkar,2021).Notably,themovetowardsworkingonurbanissuesunderENP-Southhasbeenpartofabroadershifttowardscity-levelclimateactiondrivenbyglobalinitiativesliketheC40CitiesClimateLeadershipGroup,ResilientCitiesNetworkandEBRD’sGreenCitiesActionPlan,whichincludecitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodamongtheirmembers.

Introduction

ButurbanclimatecooperationbetweenEuropeandtheSouthernNeighbourhoodisstillintheearlystagesandthereisfurtherneedtoreflect

onlessonslearnedandonhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolving.TheEuropeanCommission’snewagendafortheSouthernNeighbourhood(EuropeanCommission,2021b)highlightsthegreentransitionandclimateactionaspriorityareasandintegraltotheregion’sresilientpost-pandemicrecovery.

Yet,whileitrecognizesthelocalandurbandimensionsoftheseprocesses,thechallengesandopportunitiestheyposerequiremoreelaboration.

ClimatecooperationatthesubnationallevelcreatesnewchallengesfortheEU.Forexample,thereisgeneralconsensusthatanexusapproachtomanagingresourcesimprovesclimateresilience(Medinilla,2021;Mohtar,2017;UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2016).TheEU’sdevelopmentprojectsandplansintheSouthernNeighbourhoodthatfocusonnational-levelinfrastructureandagricultureoftenadoptasingle-systemapproach.EUcity-levelprogrammeshavesofarlargelyfocusedonfindingsectoralsolutionsforenergy(seeBox1,page25).Butasdemonstratedbytheregionalcasestudiesinthispaper,thetransformationofasingleurbansectorisnotenoughtostrengthencity-levelclimateresilience.Instead,exploringsynergiesbetweenurbansectors–inparticularwater,energyandfood–canprovidemoreresilientandsustainablesolutions(GIZ&ICLEI,2014).Thistypeofapproachhasnotbeenappliedmuchinurbancooperationprogrammes.

WiththeEUcurrentlychartingtheexternaldimensionoftheEGD(Council

oftheEuropeanUnion,2021),thisisanopportunemomenttoassesshowclimateandenergydiplomacycouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesaroundwater-energy-foodnexusapproaches.TheEGD’sambitionforsystemictransformationcallsforasystemicapproachtourbanclimateresilienceandsustainabilitythatidentifiestrade-offsandstrengthenssynergiesbetweensectors.

Thisstudyexaminesthespecificclimatevulnerabilitiesinurbanareas

intheSouthernNeighbourhoodandwiderMENAregion,and,basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,1Itadvocatesforaholisticvisionandsystemicapproachinaddressingurbanclimateresilienceincities.Consideringtheestablishedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,thepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinasystematicwayinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilehighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.Italsoidentifiesthewater-energy-foodnexusasaneffectiveentrypointforadvancingEGDgoalsintheSouthernNeighbourhood.

Thestructureofthepaperisasfollows:

Part1providesanoverviewoftheregion’sexposuretoimpactsofclimatechangethatincreasevulnerabilityandreduceresilienceofcitiesandurbanareas.Itanalysesfactorslimitingcities’capacitytoadaptandbarrierstointegratingurbansustainabilityandresilience,andtheregion’swater-energy-foodnexus.

Intermediarycitiesarecitieswithapopulationbetween50,000andonemillionpeoplethatgenerallyplayaprimaryroleinconnectingruralandurbanareastobasicfacilitiesandservices.

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU’sSouthernNeighbourhood

Part2presentscasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediarycitiesinMorocco(Chefchaouen),Lebanon(Hammana)andTunisia(Gabès)toexaminecurrentregionalapproachestourbanresilienceandsustainabilitywhichdonotalwaysexplorelinkageswithothersectors.

Part3exploreshowexternalactionaroundtheEGDprovidesanopportunitytomovebeyondsectoralurbancooperationandtowardsamoresystemicapproachthatsupportscitiesinformulatingandimplementingwater-energy-foodnexusapproaches.

ThepaperconcludeswithRecommendationsonhowtheEUcanbuildonthecooperationandpartnershipsithasalreadyestablishedwithsubnationalactorstobetterunlockthepotentialforbuildingclimateresilienceincitiesoftheSouthernPartnership.

UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilience

UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilience

Urbanclimateimpacts

CitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhoodandwiderMENAregion2faceanumberofclimaterisks.

Averageannualtemperaturesacrosstheregionarepredictedtoriseby1.5°C – 2.3°Cor3.2°C – 4.8°Cbytheendofthe21stcentury,dependingontheclimatechangescenarioused.Maximumtemperaturesareexpectedtorisefrom43°Cto50°C,especiallyininlandcities.Thewarmingeffectisexpectedtobestrongerinsummerthaninwinter,withthenumberofveryhotdayprojectedtoincreasesteeplyfromabout16daysayearintheperiod1986–2005to83–118daysannuallybymid-century(UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2017).Majorcitiesareexpectedtoexperiencemorewarmingthanotherareas(UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2017).Thesechangesareexpectedtoincreasebothheatstressandenergydemandforcooling,and

insomecitiesthiswouldbecompoundedbytheurbanheatislandeffect,whichoccurswhenanurbanareaissignificantlywarmerthanitssurroundingruralareasduetohumanactivities.

Citiesarealsoatriskfromincreasedvariabilityinrainfallandlikelihoodofextremeweathereventsandfloods.CitiesexposedtofloodingrisksincludeCasablancaandAmman.ThisiscompoundedbyconstructioninfloodplainsinCasablancaandthewadisinAmman.

Theincreasedruraldesertificationexpectedasaresultofreducedrainfallisalsoexpectedtoincreasetheprevalenceofsandandduststormsininlandcities.

Sealevelrisepresentsrisktosomecoastalcities,includingAlexandria,and

citiesintheNileDelta.ItisestimatedthathalfofthepopulationoftheArabregionliveswithin100kilometersofthecoast,andthatasealevelriseofjustonemetrewoulddirectlyaffect41,500squarekilometresofcoastallands,hometoatleast37millionpeople,and43portcities(Tolba&Saab,2009).

Climatechangeimpactsareexpectedtodirectlyaffectthewater,energyandfoodsectors.Highertemperaturesandheatwaves,especiallyduringthesummer,willrequireadditionalenergyforcoolingandwillleadtoincreasedevaporation,decreasedsoilmoisturecontentandincreasedrequirementforwaterforagriculture.Thereductioninprecipitationontheotherhand–coupledwithmismanagement

WhilethisstudyfocusesoncitiesintheEU’sSouthernNeighbourhood,insomeinstancesdataandanalysisrelatingtotheMENARegionandtheArabworldhavebeenusedduetothelimitedavailabilityofdataspecificallyontheSouthernNeighbourhood.

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU’sSouthernNeighbourhood

ofrangelandscausedbyovergrazing–willdirectlyaffectsurfacewater,theamountsofwaterstoredindams,groundwaterrecharge,andultimatelyreducewatersupplyforbothmunicipalandirrigationneeds.Thisisexpectedtoincreasedemandforenergyforgroundwaterextractionanddesalination.Reducedwatersupplyforirrigation,togetherwithlengtheningofthedryseason,desertification,extremeweatherevents,andlossofagriculturallandinareassuchastheNileDelta,areallexpectedtoreduceagriculturalproductivityandfoodsecurity.

Limitedurbanadaptivecapacity

Theconcentrationofresourcesandflowsofmaterial,energy,water,waste,etc,incitiesiswidelyrecognizedasapowerfuldriverofthetransitiontosustainabledevelopment(Parnell,2016).Theopportunitiesincludetheeconomic,social,andenvironmentalbenefitscreatedbyagglomeration,economiesofscale,andthenetworkeffect.Proximity,forexample,providesconditionsformoreefficientuseofenergyaswellaslowermobilitycosts.Thecostadvantagesofeconomiesofscaleenablehighereconomicefficiency,whilethenetworkeffectkeepsattractingfinancialandhumancapital.However,citiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhoodhavehadlimitedsuccessinreapingtheresourceefficiencybenefitsofurbanization,despitehavingeveryreasontoimprovetheefficiencyofnaturalresourceusagetomanagescarcity.

Regionalcities’failuretocapitalizeonurbanizationisduetotrendsthatundermineitandcounteractitsbenefits.Someofthesearerelatedtothespeedofurbanization,suchasthehighconcentrationofpopulationsincapitalcitiesasisthecaseofCairoandBeirut(UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,2018),thegrowthofinformalareasandinformalurbansystems,asisthecaseinBeirut,andtheconvergenceofnewruralmigrantsinto‘urbanvillages’withincities,asinCairo.Thesetrendshavepreventedcitiesfromachievingthefullpotentialofurbanization.

Othertrendsrelatetolowurbandensityandpoorpublictransportationnetworkswhichreduceoverallefficiencyandincreaseenvironmentalfootprint.Manyrecenturbandevelopmentsintheregionfollowedacar-dominantAmericanurbanmodelwhichisinappropriatetotheregionalclimaticconditionsandresultsinhighlevelsofenergyuseandcarbonemissions.Thistrendiscompoundedbyde-densification,aprocesswherethesizeofthecitygrowsfasterthanitspopulation,whichiscommonacrosstheregion(Elgendy,2021).

Rapidurbanizationanditstrends(concentration,informalityandurbanvillages),

aswellasthechallengesmentionedabove,haveallplacedsignificantpressures

oncitiesandadverselyaffectedcities’resilience,leavingthemvulnerabletoclimate

changeandothershocksandstresses,suchasdisplacement,andfoodpriceshocks

causedbyimportdependence.

Withurbaninfrastructurestrugglingtocatchupwithever-increasingdemandforenergy,waterandfood,andstrugglingtomanageissuessuchastrafficcongestion,airpollutionandpoorsolidwastemanagement,citieslacktheflexibility,redundancy,robustnessandintegrationofurbansystemsthatarenecessarytowithstandshocksandstresses.

MostcitiesintheMENAregionremaindependentononeortwosourcesofwater,onemodeoftransportandoneortwosourcesofenergy.Thislackofflexibilityandredundancyisastructuralvulnerabilityformanycities.Inaddition,otherchallengessuchasenvironmentaldegradation,socio-economicinequality,and–asweshow

UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilience

below–poorurbangovernanceandlackofinclusivityindecision-makinghaveallleftcitiesoftheregionwithlimitedadaptiveandabsorptivecapacitytodealwiththeimpactsofclimatechange,naturaldisasters,epidemicsorconflict.

Inaregionwheretwo-thirdsofthepopulationliveincities,improvingresourceefficiencyandincreasingurbanresiliencearenotonlycriticalforclimateactionbutarealsointertwined.Inacontextwherecitiesareunsustainable,astandardurbanresiliencemodel,wherecitiescanrecoverandrestoretheirfunctionalityfollowingshocksandstresses,onlymeansrestoringcitiestotheiroriginalunsustainablestate.Conversely,asteady-stateapproachtourbansustainabilityisunrealisticforcitieswhicharevulnerabletosocialshocksandstresses.Citiesthereforeneedamodelofurbanresiliencethatwouldtriggerachangetoamoresustainablestate,integratingurbansustainabilityinawaythatfacilitateslong-termresilience.Inthiscontext,synergiesbetweenstrategiesforurbansustainabilityandurbanresiliencearecrucial,andespeciallyinthehighlyinterlinkedwater-energy-foodnexus.

Water,energyandfoodinurbanareasunderclimatestress

Rapidurbanization,climatechangeandgrowingdemandforwater,energyandfoodincitiesareamongthekeymacrotrendsputtingregionalresourcesecurityatrisk.Thethreeissuesareinterlinked:climatechangeisexpectedtoresultinincreasedaveragetemperatures,reducewateravailability,andreduceagriculturalproductivity.Thiswillincreasethedemandforenergy,drivingupcompetitionforenergybetweencooling,desalinationandagricultureuses.Forexample,

asgroundwaterlevelsdropduetoreducedprecipitationandaquiferrecharge,additionalpumpingwillberequired.Andthedeeperthewaterispumpedfrom,thehigherthelikelihoodofsalinity,whichinturnwouldrequiremoreenergyfordesalination.Allthiswouldincreaseenergydemandandthecostoffoodproduction.Inaddition,ifenergyissourcedfromfossilfuelsources,

thiscouldresultinhighergreenhousegasemissions(Borgomeoetal.,2018).

InmanypartsoftheMENAregion,policyisskewedtowardsenergy,whichisusedtosupportlimitedwaterandfoodproductioncapability

Clearly,inthecontextofclimatechangeandincreasingpressureonlimitedresources,anexusapproachtomanagingnaturalresourcessuchaswater,energyandfoodcanimproveenvironmental,climate,humanandpoliticalsecurity(Mohtar,2017;UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2016;Medinilla,2021).

InmanypartsoftheMENAregion,policyisskewedtowardsenergy,whichisusedtosupportlimitedwaterandfoodproductioncapability.Energyisneededforgroundwaterextraction,desalination,treatment,conveyanceanddistributionaswellaswastewatertreatment.Energyisalsoneededfortheproduction,processing,transportationanddistributionoffood.Thewaterandfoodsystemsarealsointerdependent.Naturally,wateriscriticalforagricultureandanimal

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU’sSouthernNeighbourhood

breeding,butimpor