IRENA-能源转型的社会经济足迹：埃及（英）

Socio-economicfootprintoftheenergytransition

EGYPT

©IRENA2023

Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenoftheauthor(s)asthesourceandIRENAasthecopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.

ISBN:978-92-9260-557-5

Citation:IRENA(2023),Socio-economicfootprintoftheenergytransition:Egypt,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

AboutIRENA

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge,andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationoftheglobalenergysystem.Anintergovernmentalorganisationestablishedin2011,IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.

Acknowledgements

ThisreportwasdevelopedundertheguidanceofRabiaFerroukhi(ex-Director–KnowledgePolicyandFinanceCentre)andMichaelRenner(Head-PolicyandSocio-economics),andwasauthoredbyBishalParajuliandGondiaSokhnaSeck(IRENA),XavierCasalsandRaniaEl-Guindy(consultant),CarlosGuadarrama(ex-IRENA).ThemodellingresultswereprovidedbyAlistairSmith,HaBui,JamiePirieandJonStenning(E3ME,CambridgeEconometrics).

Thereportbenefitedfromthereviewsandinputsfrominternalandexternalexperts:AngelaKhanaliMutsotso,AsamiMiketa,ImenGherboudj,LarissaPinheiroPupoNogueira,NadeemGoussous,OmarMarzoukandSibghatUllah(IRENA),AlyAbdelfatah(MinistryofElectricityandRenewableEnergy,Egypt),MohamedElSisi(MinistryofElectricityandRenewableEnergy–Egypt,andEgyptianElectricityHoldingCompany).Thereportwascopy-editedbyJonathanGorvett.

IRENAwouldliketothanktheGovernmentofDenmarkforsupportingIRENAwiththeworkthatformedthebasisofthisreport.

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01

02

03

04

Contents

Figures04

Tables05

Boxes05

Abbreviations06

Executivesummary07

Introduction14

lt'senergysectorandtheneed

20

Socio-economicimpactoftheenergytransition

21

23

28

333...132WEEmceoplfnaloorymemiceinmtpact,asmeasuredbyGDP

Summaryandwayforward

29

34

39

48

References51

Appendix1:Carbonpricing,internationalcollaboration,

subsidiesandprogressivefiscalregimes56

Appendix2:EnergypolicyinEgypt

57

Figures

FIGURES1:EgyptianGDP:Differencebetweenthe1.5°CScenarioandthePES,2021-2050(%)09

FIGURES2:EmploymentinEgypt,2021-2050:Differencebetweenthe1.5°CScenario

andthePESbydriver(%)10

FIGURES3:Energysectorjobsunderthe1.5°CScenarioandPES,bysub-sector,2019-205011

FIGURES4:RenewableenergyjobsinthePESand1.5°CScenario,2019,2030and205011

FIGURES5:Welfareindexinthe1.5°CScenario(left)anddifferenceinwelfarebetween1.5°C

ScenarioandPESin2050(right)12

FIGURE1:Socio-economicassessmentframework16

FIGURE2:Reducingemissionsby2050throughsixtechnologicalavenues17

FIGURE3:Egypt:Totalenergysupply,2010-202022

FIGURE4:Egypt:Installedrenewablegenerationcapacity,2000-202223

FIGURE5:Householdconsumption,capitalinvestments,governmentspendingandbalanceof

tradeinEgypt,1980-202130

FIGURE6:EgyptianGDP:Differencebetweenthe1.5°CScenarioandthePES,2021-2050(%)31

FIGURE7:Unemploymentrate,2012-2022(%oflabourforce,15yearsoldandover)34

FIGURE8:EmploymentinEgypt,2021-2050:Differencebetweenthe1.5°CScenario

andthePESbydriver(%)36

FIGURE9:Energysectorjobsunderthe1.5°CScenarioandPES,bysub-sector,2019-205038

FIGURE10:RenewableenergyjobsinthePESand1.5°CScenario,2019,2030and205039

FIGURE11:StructureofIRENA’senergytransitionwelfareindex40

FIGURE12:Welfareindexinthe1.5°CScenario(left)anddifferenceinwelfarebetween1.5°C

ScenarioandPES(right),205041

FIGURE13:Mortalityrateattributedtohouseholdandambientairpollution,EgyptanditsNorth

Africanneighbours,2016(age-standardised,per100000population)42

FIGURE14:TotalandpercapitaGHGemissionsinNorthAfrica,201944

FIGURE15:Domesticmaterialconsumptionpercapita,2000-201945

FIGURE16:Renewableenergyregulations58

Tables

TABLE1:GDP,labourforceandpopulationgrowthprojectionsunderthePES18

TABLE2:ListofpoliciestoenablethedevelopmentofrenewablesinEgypt27

TABLE3:Energymixobjectivesfor203557

Boxes

BOX1:WorldEnergyTransitionOutlook:1.5°Cpathway17

BOX2:IRENA’sclimatepolicybaskets19

BOX3:DriversofGDPgrowth31

BOX4:Womenintheenergysector35

BOX5:Driversofemploymentgrowth36

BOX6:BiomassinEgypt58

Abbreviations

AfCFTA

AfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea

BECCS

bioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage

BEEC

buildingenergyefficiencycode

BOO

build-own-operate

BOOT

build-own-operate-transfer

CAGR

compoundannualgrowthrate

CAITClimateAnalysisIndicatorTool

CCScarboncaptureandstorageCO2carbondioxide

CSPconcentratedsolarpower

DMCdomesticmaterialconsumption

EDGAREmissionsDatabaseforGlobal

AtmosphericResearch

EEHCEgyptianElectricityHolding

Company

EFFextendedfundfacility

EGPEgyptianpound

EgyptERAEgyptianElectricityUtilityand

EV

FDI

FiT

GDP

GERD

GHG

GNI

GoE

GtCO2eq

GW

GWh

IPCC

IPP

IRENA

km2

ConsumerProtectionRegulatoryAgency

electricvehicle

foreigndirectinvestment

feed-in-tariff

grossdomesticproduct

GrandEthiopianRenaissanceDamgreenhousegas

grossnationalincome

GovernmentofEgypt

gigatonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent

gigawatt

gigawatthour

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange

independentpowerproducer

InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

squarekilometre

kWh

MENA

MoERE

MOIC

MoP

MoU

MRV

MtCO2eq

MW

NCCC

NCCS

NDC

NREA

NSRP

O&M

OECD

PJ

PM2.5

PPP

P2X

PV

R&D

SDG

TARES

Tcf

kilowatthour

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

MinistryofElectricityand

RenewableEnergy

MinistryofInternational

Co-operation

MinistryofPlanning

memorandumofunderstandingmonitoring,reportingand

verification

milliontonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent

megawatt

NationalCouncilforClimateChangeNationalClimateChangeStrategy

NationallyDeterminedContributionNewandRenewableEnergyAuthority

NationalStructuralReform

Programme

operationandmaintenance

OrganisationofEconomic

Co-operationandDevelopmentpetajoules

particulatematter2.5

purchasingpowerparity

power-to-X

photovoltaic

researchanddevelopment

SustainableDevelopmentGoal

TechnicalSupportProgrammeforRestructuringtheEnergySectorinEgypt

trillioncubicfeet

tCO2eq/captonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent

percapita

TFECtotalfinalenergyconsumption

TPEStotalprimaryenergysupply

UNIDOUnitedNationsIndustrial

DevelopmentOrganisation

USDUnitedStatesdollar

Unlessotherwisestated,theexchangeratefromUSdollars(USD)toEgyptianpounds(EGP)usedthroughoutthisreportisthatgivenbythe15March2023UNoperationalratesofexchange,i.e.USD1.00=EGP30.86.

07

Executivesummary

Egyptishometoapopulationofaround110millionpeople,withayoungandproductivemedianageof23.9yearsin2021(UNDESA,2022).Atpurchasingpowerparity(PPP),ithadagrossdomesticproduct(GDP)ofUSD1.33trillion1in2021,makingEgyptthethird-largesteconomyonthecontinent.UnderthecurrentWorldBankclassification,itisconsideredalower-middleincomecountry(WorldBank,n.d.).Despiteenjoyinggradualeconomicgrowth,Egyptfaceschallengesincludingdemographicpressuresonnaturalresources,employmentandsocialinfrastructure.

Egypt’spopulationgrowthrateandpovertyrate,with32.5%ofthepopulationlivingunderthenationalpovertylinein2018(WorldBank,n.d.),placessignificantfiscalandinfrastructureburdensonthecountry’ssocialservices.Fiscalspaceremainslimitedduetothelargeinterestburdenandlowrevenuemobilisation.Governmentspendingonenergysubsidiesremainshigh,leadingtocontinuedlimitedfiscalspaceforsocialspending.AccordingtotheWorldBank,allocationstothehealthandeducationsectorsremainlimited,representingaround1.5%and2.4%ofGDPinthe2021-2022financialyear.AlthoughEgyptstrengthenedsocialprotection,expandedexistingprogramsandintroducedkeypovertymitigationmeasuresduringtheearlystagesoftheCOVID-19pandemic,increasinginflationarypressurescallforfurtherintensificationofeffortstoreducepovertyandimprovewelfare.Improvingtheefficiencyofpublicspending,optimisingrevenuemobilisationtoadvancehumancapital,andpursuingstructuralreformstounleashthepotentialoftheprivatesectorindiversifiedactivitiesarenecessarytocreatejobsandimprovelivingstandards.

Thecountry’spopulationisheavilyconcentratedinasmallareaalongtheRiverNileandinitsdelta.Thisishavingasignificantimpactonhumansettlementandtheeconomy.Egypt’seconomyanditsmajorsettlementsrelyheavilyonnaturalresourcesandparticularlyontheRiverNile.Thisisusedforvariouspurposes,includingpotablewater,agriculture,industry,fishfarming,powergeneration,inlandrivernavigation,mining,oilandgasexploration,machinerycoolingandelectricitygeneration.ThisrelianceontherivermakesEgyptparticularlyvulnerabletorisingtemperaturesanddecreasedprecipitationinthehigherNileBasinsandtheeasternMediterraneancoastalzone.Overthepast30years,temperaturesinEgypthaveincreasedbyanaverageof0.53°Cperdecade(UNICEF,2022).Asaresult,thecountryisparticularlyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechange,whichcouldexacerbateexistinginequalitiesinhumandevelopmentandgeographicaldistribution.Thethreatofheatwaves,desertificationandlossofbiodiversityallposediverserisks,includingriskstofoodandwatersecurity.

1In2017USdollars.

08

AirpollutionandwastemanagementarealsomajorenvironmentalchallengesinEgypt.Airpollutionhasasignificantnegativeimpactonpublichealth,whilewasteproductionisincreasingduetopopulationgrowth,changesinconsumptionpatterns,changesinwastecharacteristicsandinadequatetechnologyforwastedisposal.TheseenvironmentalissueswillhaveasignificantimpactonEgypt’seconomy,particularlyonitsagriculturalsector.In2021,thissectoraccountedfor15%ofGDP,providedjobsfor25%oftheworkforceandprovidedfood,textilesandotherproducts(MOIC,2021).Duetotheexpectedincreaseintemperatureandpossibledeclinesinrainfall,demandforwaterforagriculturalpurposeswilllikelyincrease,exacerbatingthewaterscarcityproblem.

Egyptpossessessubstantialenergyresources,includingbothconventionalfossilfuelsandrenewableenergy,withtheformercrucialtothecountry’ssocio-economicdevelopment.Historicallyanetexporterofoilandgas,Egyptbecameanetimporterinthe2010sduetorisingenergyuseanddepletingenergyresources.Asaresult,theenergysectorhasfacednewchallengesandbarriers,suchasintermittentpoweroutages,whiletheeconomyhasfacedanincreasingfiscaldeficitduetohighsubsidiesonenergyprices–subsidiesthatthegovernmenthasbeenreducing.

EgyptisoneofAfrica’slargestenergymarkets.Thisisduetothesizeofitspopulationandthecountry’shistoricallyhighlevelsofaccesstomodernfuelsandelectricity.ThismakesEgyptstandoutfromitssouthernneighbours(IRENA,n.d.).Globally,theenergysectoristhelargestcontributortoemissions,andthisisalsothecaseinEgypt.Thetotalenergysupply(TES)increasedbyanaverageof1.5%peryearbetween2010and2020(UNSD,n.d.),andEgyptisstilllargelydependentonoilandgas(54.0%and33.7%oftheTESin2020,respectively).Indeed,naturalgassawanincreaseinusageof42%overthe2010-2020period,withtheinstallationofnewelectricitygeneratingcapacity.ThishikehasmadeEgyptAfrica’slargestgasmarket,accountingforoverathirdofthenaturalgasdemandoftheentireAfricancontinent(ClimateActiontracker,2022).Meanwhile,theshareofrenewablesislow,yetithasbeenincreasingoverthelastdecade,seeingarisefrom6.5%to7.1%between2010and2020.Renewablesaremainlydominatedbybioenergyintheformoftraditionalbiomass,whichaccountsforaroundtwo-thirdsoftotalrenewableenergysupplyandisstillusedbymanyruralhouseholds.Giventhepressingneedtoacceleratetheglobalenergytransition,thisdecadehasseenEgyptstepupitseffortstotransitionitsownenergysystem.

ThecountryhasbeenattheforefrontofrenewableenergydeploymentinAfrica,particularlythroughitslargehydroresources,tiedtotheRiverNile.Tomeetitsgrowingenergyneedsandcontributetojobcreation,Egypthassoughttodevelopseveralotherformsofmodernrenewableenergy,includingthroughsolarandwindprojects,sincethestartofthecentury.TheseincludetheZafaranawindfarmandambitiousplanssuchastheGreenCorridorInitiativeforEgypt’srenewableenergy,amemorandumofunderstanding(MoU)signedin2022tobuilda10GWonshorewindproject.Asof2020,thecountryhadthecontinent’ssecondlargestinstalledcapacityofsolarenergy,afterSouthAfrica.EgyptalsohadAfrica’sthirdlargestwindpowergenerationcapacity,accountingformorethanafifthofthecontinent’stotal(IRENA,n.d.).

09

GDP,percentagediference

between1.5°CScenarioandPES(%)

EXECUTIVESUMMARy

IRENA’smacro-econometricmodellinganalysisofEgyptshowsthattheenergytransitioncanboostthecountry’seconomy.Overthe2021-2050period,underthe1.5°CScenarioGDPis5.5%higher,onaverage,thanunderthePES–adifferencedrivenmainlybytrade(FigureS1).Thispositiveimpactisdrivenbythechangeinnettradeinfuels,attributabletoEgypt’senergytransition,energyintensityanddependenceonenergyimports.AlthoughEgyptiscurrentlyanetoilimporteranddespiteitbeingamajorgasexporter,itisatriskofbecominganetgasimportersinceitsnaturalresourceswilllikelynotbeabletokeepupwithdomesticenergydemand.Indeed,movingEgypt’senergystrategyawayfromfossilfuelstowardsrenewablesisexpectedtohaveasubstantialpositiveimpact,addingUSD63billion2tothecountry’sGDPin2050alone.Incumulativeterms,lowerfuelimportsareexpectedtoimprovethebalanceoftradebyaroundUSD1.3trillionoverthe2021-2050period.Thisrepresentsaround5.2%ofthecumulativeGDPunderthe1.5°CScenariooverthesameperiod.

FigureS1:EgyptianGDP:Differencebetweenthe1.5°CScenarioandthePES,2021‑2050(%)

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2021-20302031-20402041-2050

Investment-private

Induced:aggregatepricesChangeinGDP

Investment&expenditure-publicTrade

Induced:lump-sumpayments

Induced&indirect:other

Underthe1.5°CScenario,economy-wideemploymentis,onaverage,0.3%higherthaninthePESoverthe2021-2050period(FigureS2).Employmentpeaksintheyearsupto2030.From2030,thereisanoticeabledecreaseintheemploymentdifferencebetweenthescenarios,mainlydrivenbythelossininvestmentlinkedtofossilfuelsupply.Nevertheless,thisdecreaseisattenuatedprogressivelyinthefinalyears,creatingover27700additionaljobs(representingaround0.1%difference)in2050.Egyptisoneofthemainbeneficiariesofinternationalfinancialcollaborationflows,whilemakingarelativelysmallglobalfinancingcontribution.Increasinginternationaltransfersreducethetaxburdenonemploymentwagesandeffectivelyexpandthelaboursupplyduringtheinitialperiod.After2035,consumerexpenditurebecomesthedominantpositivefactor.ThistrendcloselyfollowsGDPresults,withanincreaseinconsumerexpenditurefromthelump-sumpaymentdriveroneofthedominantpositiveeffects.

2In2019USdollars.

10

Employment:Percentagediference

between1.5°CScenarioandPES(%)

FigureS2:EmploymentinEgypt,2021‑2050:Differencebetweenthe1.5°CScenarioandthePESbydriver(%)

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

2021-20302031-20402041-2050

Investment-privateInvestment&expenditure-publicTradeInducedandindirect

Changeinemployment

TheenergytransitionisnetpositiveforjobcreationinEgypt’senergysector(FigureS3).Totalenergysectoremploymentcouldreacharound1.5millionunderthePESandover2.4millionunderthe1.5°CScenarioby2050.Joblossesinfossilfuelsaremorethanoffsetbygainsinrenewablesandotherenergytransition-relatedsectors(i.e.energyefficiency,hydrogen,andpowergridsandflexibility,etc.).By2050,the1.5°CScenarioseesrenewablesaccountformorethan42.2%ofallenergysectorjobs.Italsoaccountsforaround24%ofalljobsinelectricitygridsandflexibility(0.6millionjobs).Energyefficiencyisresponsibleforafurther0.4millionjobs(representing16.1%ofenergysectoremployment).Itshouldalsobenotedthatenergyefficiencydominatesin2030,representingaround49%ofenergysectorjobs,becauseofthefrontloadednatureofinvestmentinthesector.In2050,10.9%ofjobslikelyremaininthefossilfuelsector–amajordecreasefromthecurrent62.7%(FigureS3).

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Jobs(inmillions)

Jobs(inthousands)

EXECUTIVESUMMARy

FigureS3:Energysectorjobsunderthe1.5°CScenarioandPES,bysub‑sector,2019‑2050

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0

2019PES1.5-SPES1.5-S

2050

2030

Renewables

Energyeiciency

Powergridsandenergyflexibility

Nuclear

Hydrogen

Fossilfuel

Note:1.5-S=1.5°CScenario;PES=PlannedEnergyScenario.

The1.5°CScenarioseesamoresignificantincreasethanthePES,withmorethanfivetimesthenumberofrenewablejobsin2030andover1millionjobsinrenewableenergyby2050(FigureS4).BecauseofEgypt’sfossilfueldependency,theuptakeofrenewablesisrelativelyslow,however,comparedtotheglobalaverage,intheearlyyearsofthe2021-2050period,withthetransitionoccurringmorerapidlyinlateryears.Solartechnologies(mainlyPV)areexpectedtostronglydominatejobsinrenewablesduringthetransitionoverall.Windwouldplayanimportantroleinfirstdecadeofthetransition(i.e.2021-2030),representingaround58%ofthetotalrenewablejobsin2030.

FigureS4:RenewableenergyjobsinthePESand1.5°CScenario,2019,2030and2050

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

2019PES1.5-SPES1.5-S

Wind

Solarwaterheater

Solar(PVandCSP)

Hydro

Geothermal

Bioenergy

2030

2050

Note:CSP=concentratedsolarpower;PV=photovoltaic;1.5-S=1.5°CScenario;PES=PlannedEnergyScenario.

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By2050,intermsofwelfare,the1.5°CScenariooutperformsthePESby12.2%,withthisdrivenmainlybythesocialandenvironmentaldimensions(rightpanelinFigureS5).Thisanalysishasalsohighlightedsomekeyareaswheregovernmentactioncouldboostlivingstandards,andthestudy’ssocial,economic,environmentalanddistributionaldimensionsshouldbeconsideredbypolicymakers(leftpanelinFigureS5).Increasesinsocialexpenditure,andincreasesinconsumptionandinvestmenttoimprovepresentandfuturewell-being,offerthegreatestpotentialforprogressintheeconomicandsocialdimension.Thereisanopportunityforimprovementinenvironmentalpolicyaswell,particularlyintheareaofGHGemissionsreduction.Improvingthedistributionaldimensionrequirespolicyactionaimedatexpandingthedistributionofwealthandprovidinggreaterbudgetaryflexibilityviahigherinternationalfinancialcollaborationflowsandcarbontaxes.

FigureS5:Welfareindexinthe1.5°CScenario(left)anddifferenceinwelfarebetween1.5°C

ScenarioandPESin2050(right)

Welfareindexbydimensionin2050

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Diferenceinwelfarebetween1.5˚CScenarioandPESin2050(in%)

EnvironmentalEconomicDistributionalSocialAccess

Note:Intheleftpanelthefivepetalsareonascalefrom0to1andrepresenttheabsolutevaluesofthefivedimensionsofthewelfareindex.Thenumberinthecentreisalsoonascalefrom0to1andrepresentstheabsolutevalueofthe

overallwelfareIndex.

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EXECUTIVESUMMARy

Forthesebenefitstoberealised,Egyptwillrequireacomprehensiveandholisticpolicyframeworkthatnotonlydrivesforwardthetransitionofenergysystems,butalsoprotectspeople,livelihoodsandjobs.HoldingthepresidencyofCOP27–the2022UnitedNationsclimatechangeconference–Egypthadtheopportunitytoplayaleadingroleinglobalclimatepolicyandaction.Addressingtheintersectionofclimateanddevelopmentrequiressignificantcommitments,institutions,regulationsandco-ordination.Thecountryhasalreadytakenimportantstepsinthisregard,withitsclimatepolicyevolvingfromsimplyadheringtointernationalcommitmentstodevelopingalong-termstrategytobecomearegionalleaderinaddressingclimatechange.Supportivepoliciestailoredtothecountry’ssocio-economiccircumstancesandchallengesshouldgointandemwiththeenergytransition.GivenEgypt’svulnerabilitytoclimatechange,thesecurityofwater,energy,andfoodareintertwined.Inordertoaccomplishefficientandintegratedplanningandmanagementofresources,itiscrucialtoaddressthedifferentlinksbetweenthedifferentsectors.AnexusstrategymustbeusedtotackletheseconnectedproblemsiftheworldistomeettheSDGsandreduceclimatethreats.Overall,asuccessful,justandinclusiveenergytransitioninEgyptcanbringaboutabrighter,moreprosperousandhealthierfutureforallEgyptians.

Introduction

15

EgyptislocatedinnortheastAfricaandcoversanareaofapproximately1millionsquarekilometres(km2).Atpurchasingpowerparity(PPP),ithadagrossdomesticproduct(GDP)ofUSD1.33trillion3in2021,makingEgyptthethird-largesteconomyonthecontinent.UndercurrentWorldBankclassification,itisconsideredalower-middleincomecountry(WorldBank,n.d.).

Egyptishometoapopulationofaround110millionpeople,withayoungandproductivemedianageof23.9yearsin2021(UNDESA,2022).Despiteenjoyinggradualeconomicgrowthovertheyears,Egyptfaceschal