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Realestateindustryofourcountrymarkettrendexpectation
——Vankeasanexample
RealestateistheleadingindustryofthenationaleconomyinChina,inthemodernsocialeconomiclifeplaysavitalrole.Afteryearsofdevelopment,Chineserealestateindustryisinintoalarge-scale,thebrand,thescaleoftheoperationperiodoftransition,thegrowthmodeofrealestateisspeedtopayattentiontothescaleoflayparticularstressonbenefitandmarketsegmentationtransformationfromdependmainlyongovernmentregulationtorelyonmarketandtheregulationofthechangeinthepatternoftheenterpriseitself.
China'srealestatemanagementanddevelopment
In2006,Chinapromulgatedbythestandingcommitteeofthe"thesixcountries"includinghousingstructure,tax,credit,land,cheaprentandeconomyapplicableroomconstructiontopromotethehealthydevelopmentoftherealestate.InMarch2007toAugust,theChinacentralsixtimeinarowimprovebenchmarklendingrate,for13timesraisedepositreserverate,sixtimeinarowofaccumulationfundloaninterestrateincrease.Togovernmentcontinuestousecreditpolicyandtaxpolicytocurbtheriseinhouseprice,butthegovernmentcontrolofthepriceofthehouseunderpowered.
In2007,theU.S.Subprimemortgagecrisistriggeredglobalfinancialtsunami,atthesametimeforChina'seconomicpolicywasalsohashadconsiderableinfluence.ButtheU.S.creditcrisistoChina'srealestatemarket'sinfluenceisnotsingleagain,inashorthousingpricesfall,September2008toOctober,thecentralbankhastwocutbenchmarklendingrateandhousingaccumulationfundloaninterestrate,maketightenpolicybegantoloose.Soinearly2009,withsuchaspectacle:WhentheAmericanrealestatepricesfallinexpanding,andChina'srealestatebuttherewasupagainst.
Inordertoalleviatewarmsupagainhouseprices,thegovernmentputmoreattentiontoturntothehousingstructure.Theministryofconstructionin2009intheconstructionoflow-renthousingallspentmoneyintoashighas33billion.Theministryoflandandresourcesannouncedthe2010yearsforthehousingplan,plantohousinglandsupplyamountmorethan130%year-on-yeargrowth.Ina2011article"eightcountries",thecentalgovernmentagainincreasedsecurityroomconstructionforce,improvetheconstructiontargetto10millionsets.
China'srealestatemarketofthespecifictrends
Policy:Centraladhereregulationdoesnotshake,reasonablerequirement
protected
Thefirstquarterof2012,tofurtherconsolidatecontrolachievements,promotehousepricereasonableregression,thecentralgovernmenthasrepeatedlystressedtheinsistonrealestateregulationnotbemoved.berestrictedtobuypolicyimplementation.Relevantdepartmentshavesaidstrictenforcementmeasuresattitudetocontinue.Ontheotherhand,inspecificpolicyimplementation,controlpolicies"havekeeppressure",continuetoslowdowninvestmentdemandspeculationatthesametime,alsoproposedtotheautonomyofdemandprotection,continuetocarryoutthelawdisseminatingcreditpoliciestosupporttheloandemandfirstsuite.
Bridalchamber:thenationalinvestmentgrowthcontinuetostartback
Nationally,JantoFeb2012,investmentinrealestatedevelopmentandstartnewgrowthof27.8%and5.1%,respectively,continuetogrowfasterfallback.From20keycities,thetotalturnoverofthefirstquarterfell16percent,thelowestinrecentyearsoverthesameperiod,thethird-tiercitiesthelargestdecline,themostprominenteffortstoreboundinthesecond-tiercities.PricesinceSeptember2011,100-citypriceindexchainforsevenmonthsdown,declinetothehighestlevelinFebruary,thedeclineinFebruary,unchangedfromMarch,adropofstabilization;sub-urbanpointofview,thepriceadjustmentbythefirst-tiercitiestransferredtothesecondandthirdline;pricereductionprojectswithsmallandmedium-sizedroompricesbytheexpansionoftheLiberalbrandHousingprices,thespreadofsuburbsinsidethecity,diversificationofpromotionaltools.
Figure1:realestateandresidentialdevelopmenthasaccumulatedyear-on-yeargrowthandinvestment
Datasources:CREISmiddlefingerdata,
Developmentinvestmentgrowthcontinuestofall,butthehouseisgreaterthanthewholebyrealestate,growthhasbeenlowerthantheaveragelevelinnearlyfiveyears(about25%)
Land:pricevolumecontinuetodrop,premiumrateshavefallentohistoricminimum,clinchadealpriceofmainstream,sellone'sownthingsbyexpanding.
2012quarter,landmarketcontinuestoslump,floorallvalencetocontinuedown,premiumratesreachedanewlow,thecountry's300cityhousinglandappearanceallvalence12.2%year-on-yeardrop,premiumratesfelltothelowestinthepasttwoyears,only2.5%,clinchadealthepriceofthemainstream.Supplyand
Thefuturetrendprojection
Salesinthefirstquarter2012,Vankesalesdown,sales10%year-on-yeardrop,tothis,ChinaVankeenterprisewilladjustsalesstrategy,depreciatesalespromotioneffortscontinuetowiden,meansmorevaried.
Giveland,ChinaVankegivelandstillcautionsattitude,continuetotaketospendingless.
Capitalfunding,onlydepositsandadvancereceiptsayear-on-yeardecline,self-financingaccountedcontinuetoimprove.
Profit
Profitforecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
EPS(yuan)
0.8800
1.1163
1.3704
1.6679
BeforeJanuaryforecastearnings
0.8800
1.0964
1.3694
1.6847
Netassetsyield
19.8300
18.7935
19.1080
19.6826
Netincome(hundredmillion)
96.25
123.66
153.71
189.99
Businessincome(hundredmillion)
717.83
941.96
1199.96
1453.73
Predictionnumberofinstitution
47
36
20
Netassetspershare(yuan)
4.8200
China'srealestateindustrytrendanalysis
Therealestatemarketmatures
Fromthecurrentrealestateinvestmentandhousingmarketsperformanceanalysis,China'srealestateindustryisstillontherisestage,butfromthemarketperformancetosee,thehousingmarketisinanimmaturetomaturesetting,inthenextfewyears,themarkerwilleventuallyreturntoreason.Inaddition,fromtheeconomicstrengthandpurchasingpowerofurbanresidents,aslongasthenationaleconomymaintainedsteadygrowth,thepropertydoesnotappearthecaseofsevereshortage,thenthepropertymarketwillnevercrash.Moreover,throughthenationalpolicyadjustmentsontherealestateindustry,andguidetherealestateintoamatureandrationaldevelopmentofthemarketwillcontinuetomature.
Upstreamanddownstreamindustryintegration
AsChina'seconomicstrengthunceasinglyexpands,therapiddevelopmentofscienceandtechnologypower,realestateenterpriseisnolongerthewholeindustrychainasimplenode,buthavetakentheirkeytechnologyandcorecompetitiveness,theenterpriseoftheindustrylayouttocompleteindustrychainupstreamanddownstreamdirectionexpansion.
Housepriceappreciationisstable
Housepriceandthedevelopmentofthenationaleconomythantherelationshipwaspositively,solongasourcountrysteadyeconomicgrowth,governmentmacro-controlproper,housingpricewon'tappeartoobigwavemotion.Thelimitedlandresourcesisthehousepricerisingincentives,andchasedperiodofthelandpriceincreases,drivetheriseinhousepricessituation.Ontheonehand,thedeveloperinordertoimprovethegradeofrealestate,buildbrand,willleadtorisinghouseprices;theotherhand,withthenationaleconomicdevelopmentandtheimprovementofpeople'sincome,thedemandforhousing,moreandmorestrong,butinthemarketaswellasnationalpolicyunderthecontrolofgrowthofprices,theincreasinglystable.
Lastwords
Therealestateindustryistoinfluencethepeople'slivelihoodpilarindustry.Realestateisathirdfinancial,athirdarepolicy,athirdarerealestateproperties.Asarealestateenterprisetorespondtocountriescalledfor,strictlyabidebythepolicysets,andconstantlyunderstandingandlearningofnationalmacropolicies,andcarefullyevaluatedenterprisedevelopmentdynamic,graspingtheopportunityandprogress,makeourcountryforthehealthydevelopmentofrealestateindustryharmonious.
References
[1]ChinaIndexResearchInstitute.Chineserealestatemark
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