Capgemini-汽车供应链-追求长期韧性（英）-2023

AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceAutomotivesupply

chainPURSUING

LONG-TERM

RESILIENCE#GetTheFutureYouWant2AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceThe

nearshoring

ofautomotive

procurementadds

resilience

tothesupply

chainHowever,suppliers

are

bearing

most

of

the

financial

burdenof

such

a

short-term

strategy,

usually

paying

higher

rates

ofinterest

than

OEMs

do,

making

it

non-viable

in

the

long

term.01Sustainability

effortsare

faltering

as

automotive

organizationsfire-fight

supply

chain

crises03According

to

our

survey

findings,

the

proportion

ofsupply

obtained

from

offshore

locations

has

fallen

by

22percent

over

the

past

two

years.

This

has

contributed

toan

improvement

in

supply

chain

resilience,

as

evidencedby

increased

market

confidence

and

a

reduction

in

orderbacklogs.

Weexpect

this

trend

to

accelerate,

driven

byregulatory

and

government

policy,

in

particular

thatpertaining

to

the

growing

adoption

of

electric

vehicles

(EVs)and

semiconductors.Successive

supply

chain

crises

have

sapped

automakers’time

and

diverted

focus

and

money

away

from

sustainabilityinitiatives.

This

is

particularly

true

of

suppliers,

whosesustainability

investments

have

dropped

significantly

(in22%While

inventory

building

has

boostedshort-term

resilience,

it

is

not

afeasible

long-term

strategy02Increases

in

inventory,

funded

by

working

capital,

have

beenused

by

both

OEMs

and

suppliers

to

inject

resilience

into

thesupply

chain.

Higher

stock

levels

mean

that

manufacturingcan

continue

without

disruption,

even

if

supply

is

interrupted.the

proportion

of

supply

obtained

fromoffshore

locations

has

fallen

by

22percentover

the

past

two

yearsCapgemini

Research

Institute20233AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResiliencecontrast,

OEMs’

investments

have

increased

slightly).

Onein

three

automotive

companies

still

lacks

a

comprehensivesustainability

strategy,

with

many

existing

initiatives

puton

hold.

A

shortage

of

suppliers

of

recycled

materials(and

of

the

materials

themselves)

has

delayed

scaling

ofcircular-economy

initiatives.HOWCAN

SUPPLYCHAINSBEASOURCEOFCOMPETITIVEADVANTAGE

TOTHEAUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRY?A

lack

of

trust,

transparency,

anddata-driven

intelligence

is

hamperingsupply

chain

management04Developadata-drive,agilesupplychaintalent

andcultureDevelopaworkforcemanagementplanforthetransitiontoelectricLeveragetechnologytobuildanintelligent,data-drivensupplychainthathelpsoptimizeBuildtrusttoimprovesuppliercollaborationandBuildpartnershipsinthebatteryvaluechaintosustainLeveragesustainabilityandcircularitytobuildresilienceandconsumerloyaltyOEMs

and

suppliers

often

seem

locked

into

a

viciouscircle,

in

which

lack

of

transparency

feeds

mutual

mistrustand

vice

versa.

Suppliers

mistrust

OEMs’

manufacturingrequirements

data

(largely

owing

to

a

perceptionthat

OEMs

overorder),

while

OEMs

lack

confidence

insuppliers’

self-reported

sustainability

data.

This

generallack

of

transparency

hampers

business-critical

activitiessuch

as

risk

management

and

sustainability

initiatives,as

well

as

exacerbating

challenges

in

procurement

andreplenishment.

Underlying

all

this

is

the

lack

of

a

maturedata-driven

intelligent

supply

chain.transparencyfuturegrowthvehiclesandautomationinventoryCapgemini

Research

Institute20234AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceWho

shouldread

this

report

and

why?This

report

intends

to

offer

actionableThis

report

is

based

on

the

findings

of

acomprehensive

industry

survey

of

1,004

seniorexecutives

(director

level

and

above)

fromleading

global

automotive

organizations.These

organizations

are

automotive

OEMswith

annual

revenue

above

$1

billion

andautomotive

suppliers

with

annual

revenueabove

$500

million.

Approximately

70%ofsurveyed

executives

belonged

to

supply

chainfunctions,

while

the

remaining

30%

came

fromother

relevant

business

functions.

See

ResearchMethodology

at

the

end

of

the

report

formore

details.recommendations

for

automotive

executivesto

assist

them

in

creating

resilient,

connected,intelligent,

and

sustainable

supply

chains.

Itprimarily

caters

to

automotive

supply

chainleaders

across

supply

chain

strategy,

inbound/outbound

logistics,

sourcing

&

procurement,IT,demand

planning,

sales

and

operationsplanning,

and

finance,

among

other

supplychain

functions.

Given

the

importance

of

supplychains

for

automotive

business,

this

reportis

also

useful

to

automotive

business

leadersfrom

general

management,

strategy,

product,manufacturing,

and

sustainability

executivesfor

their

supply

chain

initiatives.Capgemini

Research

Institute20235AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceCapgemini

Research

Institute20236AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceWhen

“just

in

time”istoo

late“Supply

chain

architecture,

in

general,

is

changing.

This

just-in-time

process

that

we've

enjoyed

for

decades

now,

whenthere

was

frictionless

trade

across

the

world,

that

time

hasgone,

and

people

are

now

rearchitecting

the

supply

chain

tomake

it

more

resilient.”1Recent

disruption

to

the

global

automotive

supply

chain

hascalled

into

question

the

industry’s

conventional

wisdom,including

the

viability

of

the

just-in-time

(JIT)

methodology.Originated

by

Toyota,

JIT

has

long

been

a

cornerstone

ofautomotive

supply

chain

philosophy,

owing

to

the

benefits

itbrings

of

reduced

waste,

lower

warehousing

costs,

and

thepotential

to

free

up

working

capital.Wesee

the

solution

as

being

in

building

a

resilient,connected,

intelligent,

and

sustainable

supply

chain

–one

that

can

adapt

to

the

procurement

of

scarce

resources,such

as

minerals

for

batteries

and

semiconductors.

Given

theindustry’s

growing

complexity,

however,this

transformationis

challenging.

The

automotive

supply

chain

can

span

multipleregions

and

countries,

rendering

it

vulnerable

to

globaldisruptions

such

as

natural

disasters,

political

instability,

andtrade

disputes.However,the

volatile

business

landscape

has

also

revealedthe

downside

of

JIT;for

many

organizations,

the

transitionto

an

alternative

approach

is

already

underway.

As

JamesRowan,

CEO,President,

and

Director

of

VolvoCars

confirms:Capgemini

Research

Institute20237AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceSustainability

and

the

circular

economy

will

be

keycomponents

of

the

supply

chain

of

the

future.

On

itscurrent

trajectory,

automotive

is

set

to

overshoot

itscarbon

budget

to

meet

the

Paris

Agreement

by

at

least75

percent.

This

is

likely

to

lead

to

increased

regulatory2pressure

to

adhere

to

sustainability.This

report

is

intended

to

guide

automotive

companiesthrough

the

process

of

supply

chain

transformation.Drawing

on

the

latest

research,

it

explores

the

challengesof

supply

chain

management

in

today’s

automotiveindustry

and

suggests

strategies

for

building

the

supplychain

of

tomorrow.“One

of

our

primary

strategies

for

oursupply

chain

is

to

become

morecustomer-centric.

Another

is

ensuring

that

ourprocesses

remain

agile.

A

bigportion

of

ourperformance

is

going

to

be

focused

on

thecapability,

skills,

and

competencies

of

thefuturefor

our

people.”GEORGEKURIANVice

President

Supply

Chain

andLogistics,

MichelinCapgemini

Research

Institute20238AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceFIGURE.

1KeyareasoffocusforthisresearchSupply

chain

resilienceGeopoliticalriskIntelligentsupplychainJust-in-caseresilienceElectronicsand

semiconductorsEVBatteryKey

issues

insupply

chain

characteristicsKey

componentsCircularcarBatteryrecyclingNet

zeroEnvironmental

sustainability

&

circularityCapgemini

Research

Institute20239AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceAbout

our

researchIn

June

and

July

2023,we

conducted

a

survey

of

1,004industry

leaders

(director

level

and

above)

from

449automotive

original

equipment

manufacturers

(OEMs)

andsuppliers

across

10

countries

(see

Research

Methodology).Wealso

held

in-depth

interviews

with

24

senior

executivesfrom

market-leading

automotive

firms.This

report

offers

insights

and

recommendationssupported

by

the

findings

of

this

research.75%the

amount

of

overshootthe

automotive

industry

is

currentlyprojected

to

make

on

its

carbon

budget

tomeet

the

Paris

AgreementCapgemini

Research

Institute202310AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilience01NEARSHORINGINJECTS

RESILIENCE

INTOSUPPLY

CHAINCapgemini

Research

Institute202311AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceValue

procured

fromoffshorelocations

hasfallen

by

22

percent

in

thepast

two

yearsFIGURE.

2Procurementfromoffshorelocationshasfallenby22percentoverthepasttwo

yearsDISTRIBUTIONOFPROCUREMENTLOCATION,INTERMSOFDOLLAR

VALUEThe

automotive

supply

chain

is

currently

undergoingdeglobalization.

Procurement

from

offshore

locations

hasdropped

by

8

percentage

points

in

absolute

terms

since

2021.This

is

equivalent

to

a

22-percent

drop

in

the

proportion

(byvalue)

of

procurement

that

relates

to

offshore

locations.Weexpect

a

further

decline

of

19

percent

over

the

nexttwo

years.

This

nearshoring

fortifies

supply

chain

resilience,as

explained

by

a

general

manager

at

a

European

OEM:"Nearshoring

is

a

strategic

goal

for

us.

In

view

of

politicalpressures

and

raw-material

availability,

at

least

75

percentof

the

supply

chain

needs

to

be

nearshored

or

moved

to32%36%38%40%32%36%-22%-19%36%28%202322%20212025domestic

markets

in

the

long

run.”4OffshoringNearshoringDomesticmarketsRelativepercentagedropSource:

Capgemini

Research

Institute,

Automotive

supply

chain

survey,

June-July

2023;N

=

592respondents,

primarily

from

thesupply

chain

function.Note:

Procurement

from

nearshoring:

This

involves

a

business

relocating

procurement

to

a

geographically

nearer

country

to

thatcurrently

used.

For

example,

for

an

organization

with

final

consumers

in

Western

Europe,

nearshoring

could

mean

procuring

fromEastern

Europe,

rather

than

Asia,

for

example.Capgemini

Research

Institute202312AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceEurope

has

led

this

nearshoring

trend,

with

a

25-percentreduction

in

offshore

procurement

in

terms

of

dollar

value,followed

by

Asia-Pacific

and

the

US.

This

closely

corroboratesour

perception

of

a

shift

across

industries.

According

tothe

US

Census

Bureau,

Chinese

imports

to

the

US

fell

by24

percent

through

May

2023,while

Mexico

is

now

theFIGURE.

3Europehasreducedprocurementfromoffshorelocationsby25percent,agreaterreductionthanotherregionsPERCENTAGEREDUCTION

OFOFFSHORINGPROCUREMENT(INDOLLAR

VALUE),2023COMPARED

TO

2021US’sleading

trade

partner.automotive

procurement

from

Mexico,country

to

attract

foreign

direct

investment

(FDI)

worth

$2billion

in

October

2022alone.

Mexico’s

Ministry

of

Economy5This

shift

can

also

be

seen

in6which

helped

the7stated

that

automotive

part

manufacturers

were

among

thelargest

foreign

investors

in

the

country

in

2022.-18%-20%-22%-25%OverallAPACUSEuropeSource:

Capgemini

Research

Institute,

Automotive

supply

chain

survey,

June-July

2023;N

=

592respondents

primarily

from

thesupply

chain

function.Capgemini

Research

Institute202313AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceTo

shorten

the

automotive

supply

chain

and

createemployment

opportunities,

the

Japanese

governmenthas

created

a

$2.2

billion

assistance

package

to

facilitateJapanese

manufacturers

in

moving

production

from

Chinaback

to

Japan.8India

has

a

similar

initiative

with

its

Production

LinkedIncentive

(PLI)

program,

which

has

resulted

in

Boschimplementing

its

“Local

for

Local”

strategy

to

increaseits

localization

footprint,

with

an

emphasis

on

electricpowertrains.9Federico

Baiocco,

Head

of

Global

Supply

Chain

and

S&OP,Iveco

Group,

adds:

“We

are

multi-sourcing

our

supplychain

to

build

back-up

solutions

for

disruptions.

There

aretwo

targets:

the

availability

of

materials

and

avoidingdependency

on

one

single

supplier

during

a

crisis.”1025%the

magnitude

of

reductionof

European

procurement

fromoffshore

locationsCapgemini

Research

Institute202314AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceSeveral

factors

contributeto

this

sharp

decline

inoffshoringFIGURE.

4Regulatoryconcerns,transparency,andreliabilityarethetopdriversofnearshoringPERCENTAGEOFRESPONDENTSWHOHAVE

RANKED

THEFOLLOWINGAS

THETOPTHREEREASONS

FORADOPTING

MORELOCALIZATIONWesee

addressing

regulations,

improving

transparency,and

increasing

reliability

as

the

principal

drivers

of

thenearshoring

of

procurement

and

supply

chains

(see

Figure

4).Other

reasons

are

the

need

to

improve

sustainability

metricsand

to

increase

circularity.13%12%11%8%8%8%19%AddressingexistingandnewImprovingtransparencyIncreasing

Improvingsustainability

IncreasingReducingcostofcomponentsandmaterialreliabilityofsupplymetricscircularityregulationsThe

magnitude

of

reductionof

procurement

from

offshorelocations,

expected

over

the

nexttwo

years.Source:

Capgemini

Research

Institute,

Automotive

supply

chain

survey,

June-July

2023;N

=

435respondents

primarily

from

thesupply

chain

function.Capgemini

Research

Institute202315AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceRegulatory

policy

incentivizes

reshoringwhile

adding

compliance

costs•

The

Indian

government

is

supporting

the

country’sautomotive

industry

in

reshoring

its

supply

chain

toincrease

global

competitiveness

and

reduce

dependenceon

imports;

it

is

also

encouraging

the

semiconductorecosystem

in

this

respect

via

its

Production

LinkedIncentive

(PLI)

program.16The

contrast

between

new

and

existing

regulationshighlights

the

significance

of

government

influence

insupply

chain

decisions

–

specifically

in

terms

of

organizationsimplementing

“de-risking”

strategies.11

For

example:Apart

from

these

incentive-based

regulations,

newcompliance-based

and

sustainability-oriented

regulationswill

increase

the

cost

of

operating

supply

chains

in

lightlyregulated

countries

that

lack

transparency

and

traceability:•

The

United

States-Mexico-Canada

Agreement

(USMCA)12states

that,

to

be

sold

tariff-free,

at

least

75

percentof

a

vehicle’s

components

should

be

manufactured

inNorth

America.

This

has

resulted

in

North

Americanautomotive

organizations

localizing,

as

explained

by

OlaKällenius,

Chairman

of

the

Management

Board

and

CEO

ofMercedes-Benz

Group:

“By

the

middle

of

this

decade,

wewill

have

Americanized

(or,rather,

‘North-Americanized’)our

supply

chain

for

battery

cells

in

the

US.

We

havealready

sat

down

with

each

player

and

looked

at

wherethe

raw

materials

are

going

to

come

from,

where

therefining

capacity

is,

and

so

on.”

13“We

are

multi-sourcing

oursupply

chain

to

buildback-upsolutions

for

disruptions.

Thereare

two

targets:

the

availabilityof

materials

and

avoidingdependency

on

one

singlesupplier

during

a

crisis.”•

The

EU’s

Corporate

Sustainability

Due

Diligence

Directive(CSDDD)

obliges

organizations

to

carry

out

due

diligenceregarding

human

rights

and

environmental

responsibility,right

along

the

supply

chain.17•

The

EU's

new

Circular

Economy

Action

Plan

for

theautomotive

industry

proposes

that,

in

order

to

supportthe

EU's

environmental

and

climate

goals,

automotivemanufacturers

will

have

to

develop

circular

supply

chainsusing

recycled

materials.18

Such

circular-economy

initiativesrequire

reverse

logistics,

which

globalized

supply

chainscannot

readily

support.•

The

US

Inflation

Reduction

Act

(IRA)

202214

provides

taxcredits

for

vehicles

that

source

battery

materials

in

NorthAmerica

to

encourage

onshore

investment.

For

example,General

Motors

is

investing

$50million

in

Texas-basedlithium

technology

start-up

EnergyX

as

it

expands

into

theminingsector.15FEDERICOBAIOCCOHead

of

Global

Supply

Chain

andS&OP,Iveco

Group•

The

US’sUyghur

Forced

Labor

Prevention

Act

(UFLPA)dictates

that

goods

mined,

produced,

or

manufacturedwholly

or

in

part

in

Xinjiang

or

by

an

entity

on

the

UFLPACapgemini

Research

Institute202316AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceEntity

List

are

prohibited

from

being

imported

into

theUS.

However,current

automotive

procurement

generallylacks

the

level

of

transparency

and

traceability

required

tocomply

with

this

law.19A

shift

to

EVs

and

reshoring

of

semiconductorswill

accelerate

nearshoringbest

explained

by

Marc-Oliver

Nandy,

Director

Global

SupplyChain

at

Mercedes-Benz:

“The

industry

cannot

nearshoreovernight

because

companies

already

have

an

establishedsupply

base.

However,

they

can

make

different

sourcing

andfootprint

decisions

for

the

new

products

they

plan

to

launch.That

is

why

I

expect

the

rate

of

nearshoring

to

increase

in

thecoming

years.”

20The

creation

of

new

supply

chains

for

electric

vehicles

(EVs)will

lead

to

increased

reshoring

of

sourcing

and

procurement.Nearly

three

out

of

five

OEMs

state

that

investment

inbattery

and

EV

supply

chains

is

primarily

governed

byregulation,

political

mandates,

and

geopolitical

concerns,

allof

which

are

likely

to

accelerate

reshoring.

This

acceleration

isThe

due

diligence

required

to

comply

with

regulations

of

thistype

increases

the

overall

compliance

cost

of

procuring

fromoffshore

locations.

Such

regulation,

therefore,

encouragesnearshoring

or

using

domestic

suppliers.70%of

our

survey

respondentsthat

they

currently

obtain

a

majorityof

semiconductors

from

China,Taiwan,Japan,

and

KoreaCapgemini

Research

Institute202317AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceRegulations

such

as

the

European

Chips

Act21

(ECA)

and

theUS’sCHIPS

and

Science

Act22

aim

to

encourage

localizedsemiconductor

production

in

order

to

enhance

supplychain

resilience

for

national

security

reasons.

These

lawsaddress

the

concentration

of

semiconductor

suppliesin

China,

Taiwan,Japan,

and

Korea,

where

70percent

ofour

survey

respondents

currently

obtain

most

of

theirsemiconductors.

The

ECA

is

intended

to

double

Europe’sshare

of

the

semiconductor

market

from

10

to

20percent

by2030Companies

are

already

responding

to

these

laws.

Forexample:“The

industry

cannot

nearshore

overnight

becausecompanies

already

havean

established

supply

base.However,

they

can

make

different

sourcing

andfootprint

decisions

for

the

new

products

they

plan

tolaunch.

That

is

why

I

expect

the

rate

of

nearshoringto

increase

in

the

coming

years.”•

German

supplier

Bosch

has

invested

$1.2billion

to

set

up

asemiconductor

and

sensor

factory

in

Germany.23•

TSMC,

a

Taiwanese

chip

manufacturer,

has

also

announcedit

will

build

two

semiconductor

production

plants

inArizona,

USA,

by

2024,with

an

investment

of

about

$40billion.24•

Intel

is

investing

€30

billion

(US$33billion)

in

a

chipmanufacturing

site

in

Germany

as

part

of

its

expansion

inEurope.25MARC-OLIVERNANDYDirector

Global

Supply

Chainat

Mercedes-BenzSemiconductor

investments

also

take

some

time

to

reach

fullcapacity

and

yields.Capgemini

Research

Institute202318AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceHOW

HAVEFIGURE.

5Theaverageproportionofvehiclecostattributedtosemiconductorsandsensorshasincreasedbymorethanhalfbetween2021

and2023AUTOMOTIVE

SUPPLYCHAINS

RESPONDED

TOTHE

SEMICONDUCTORSHORTAGE?PERCENTAGE

VALUE(INTERMSOFOVERALL

COSTOFAVEHICLE)THAT

ISATTRIBUTEDTOSEMICONDUCTORSANDSENSORS15.5%Semiconductor

shortages

were

among

the

toptwo

disruptive

events

in

2022as

cited

by

oursurvey

respondents.

This

along

with

the

increasedadoption

of

advanced

driver-assistance

systems(ADAS)

and

autonomous

driving

as

well

as

themove

to

“software-defined

vehicles”

will

furtherincrease

this

demand.

Between

2021and

2023,the

average

proportion

of

vehicle

value

attributedto

semiconductors

and

sensors

increased

by

51percent

and

is

expected

to

increase

by

a

further46

percent

between

2023and

2025(see

Figure5).Doug

Parks,

Executive

Vice

President

of

GlobalProduct

Development,

Purchasing

and

SupplyChain

at

General

Motors

affirms

this

prediction:"We

see

our

semiconductor

requirements

morethan

doubling

over

the

next

several

years

asvehicles

become

technology

platforms.”2646%10.1%7.0%202151%20232025Average(%)Percentage

increaseSource:

Capgemini

Research

Institute,

Automotive

supply

chain

survey,

June-July

2023;N

=

132

OEM

respondentsprimarily

from

product

and

manufacturing

functions.Capgemini

Research

Institute202319AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceEric

Moreau,

Vice

President,

Global

Supply

Chainand

Industrial

Strategy

at

Forvia

Electronicscomments,:

“The

demand

for

semiconductors

isgrowing

exponentially;

today’s

vehicles

alreadyuse

many

more

semiconductors

than

those

madea

few

years

back.

We

have

a

different

strategy

forthe

new

generation

of

semiconductors,

backed

bysignificant

investments.”27FIGURE.

6OEMsaremovingawayfromtier-1

and-2

supplierstoachievegreatersecurityofsemiconductorsuppliesAt

present,

50

percent

of

the

current

supply

ofsemiconductor

components

is

still

not

consideredsufficiently

secure,

with

full

stack

computingplatforms

and

microcontrollers

being

the

leastsecure

according

to

our

survey.

Figure

6

indicatestake-up

of

the

two

strategies

OEMs

are

adoptingto

achieve

security:

investing

in

semiconductorcapacity

and

bringing

software

developmentin

house.56%60%Investinginsecuresemiconductorsupplycapacityasanalternativetotraditionaltier1and2suppliersBringingsoftwaredevelopmenttraditionallyundertakenbytier-1suppliersinhouseSurce:

Capgemini

Research

Institute,

Automotive

supply

chain

survey,

June-July

2023;N

=

528

OEM

respondents

primarilyfrom

supply

chain,

general

management,

product,

and

manufacturing

functions.Capgemini

Research

Institute202320AutomotiveSupplyChain:PursuingLong-TermResilienceOne

of

the

most

common

strategies

foraddressing

the

issue,

as

mentioned

by63percentof

respondents,

is

allocating

more

working

capitalto

increasing

inventories

of

semiconductors

(seeFigure

7).FIGURE.

7BuildinginventoriesisthemostpopularwaytoaddresssemiconductorsupplyissuesPERCENTAGEOF

OEMRESPONDENTSBY

STRATEGICAPPROACHTO

INCREASINGSEMICONDUCT