人工智能：经济发展新动力（英文版）

ByMarkPurdyandPaulDaugherty

CONTENTS

Thenewfactorofproduction4

ThreechannelsofAI-ledgrowth12

FactoringinAI15

ClearingthepathtoanAIfuture21

2|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Increasesincapitalandlaborarenolonger

drivingthelevelsofeconomicgrowththe

worldhasbecomeaccustomedtoanddesires.Fortunately,anewfactorofproductionisonthehorizon,anditpromisestotransformthebasisofeconomicgrowthforcountriesacrosstheworld.

Therehasbeenmarkeddeclineinthe

abilityofincreasesincapitalinvestment

andinlabortopropeleconomicprogress.Thesetwoleversarethetraditionaldriversofproduction,yettheyarenolongerabletosustainthesteadymarchofprosperityenjoyedinpreviousdecadesinmost

developedeconomies.

Butlong-termpessimismisunwarranted.Withtherecentconvergenceofa

transformativesetoftechnologies,

economiesareenteringanewerainwhichartificialintelligence(AI)hasthepotentialtoovercomethephysicallimitationsof

capitalandlaborandopenupnewsourcesofvalueandgrowth.

Indeed,Accentureanalyzed12developedeconomiesandfoundthatAIhasthe

potentialtodoubletheirannualeconomicgrowthratesby2035.

Toavoidmissingoutonthisopportunity,

policymakersandbusinessleadersmust

preparefor,andworktoward,afuture

withartificialintelligence.TheymustdosonotwiththeideathatAIissimplyanotherproductivityenhancer.Rather,theymust

seeAIasthetoolthatcantransformour

thinkingabouthowgrowthiscreated.

3|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

THENEWFACTOROFPRODUCTION

Acrosstheglobe,ratesofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthhavebeenshrinking.

Moreover,thishasbeentrueforthreedecades.Keymeasuresofeconomicefficiencyare

trendingsharplydownward,whilelabor-forcegrowthacrossthedevelopedworldislargelystagnant.Itisevenindeclineinsomecountries(seeFigures1to4).

Giventhispooroutlook,commentators

saythatastagnanteconomyisthe“new

normal.”Onanevenmorepessimisticnote,economistRobertGordonarguesthat

productivitygrowthoverthenextquartercenturywillcontinueatthesluggishpacewehaveexperiencedsince2004.1He

believesthatthepasttwocenturiesof

“GreatInventions,”suchasthesteamshipandtelegraph,areunlikelytoberepeated.Andthisdeficitofinnovation,combined

withunfavorabledemographictrends,

flaggingeducationalattainmentand

risingwealthinequality,willslow

economicprogress.

So,areweexperiencingtheendofgrowthandprosperityasweknowit?

Asgrimasmuchofthedataundoubtedlyis,itmissesanimportantpartofthestory.

Thatmissingelementishownew

technologiesaffectgrowthintheeconomy.

Traditionally,capitalandlaborarethe

“factorsofproduction”thatdrivegrowthintheeconomy(seeFigure5).Growthoccurswhenthestockofcapitalorlaborincrease,orwhentheyareusedmoreefficiently.Thegrowththatcomesfrominnovationsand

technologicalchangeintheeconomyis

capturedintotalfactorproductivity(TFP).

EconomistshavealwaysthoughtofnewtechnologiesasdrivinggrowththroughtheirabilitytoenhanceTFP.Thismadesenseforthetechnologiesthatwehaveseenuntilnow.Thegreattechnologicalbreakthroughsoverthelastcentury—

electricity,railwaysandIT—boostedproductivitydramaticallybutdidnotcreateentirelynewworkforces.

4|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Today,wearewitnessingthetake-

offofanothertransformativesetof

technologies,commonlyreferredtoas

artificialintelligence(see“Whatisartificialintelligence?”).ManyseeAIassimilarto

pasttechnologicalinventions.Ifwebelievethis,thenwecanexpectsomegrowth,butnothingtransformational.

ButwhatifAIhasthepotentialtobenot

justanotherdriverofTFP,butanentirely

newfactorofproduction?Howcanthisbe?

ThekeyistoseeAIasacapital-laborhybrid.AIcanreplicatelaboractivitiesatmuch

greaterscaleandspeed,andtoevenperform

sometasksbeyondthecapabilitiesof

humans.Nottomentionthatinsomeareasithastheabilitytolearnfasterthanhumans,ifnotyetasdeeply.Forexample,byusingvirtualassistants,1,000legaldocumentscanbereviewedinamatterofdaysinsteadoftakingthreepeoplesixmonthstocomplete.2

Similarly,AIcantaketheformofphysical

capitalsuchasrobotsandintelligent

machines.Andunlikeconventionalcapital,suchasmachinesandbuildings,itcan

actuallyimproveovertime,thankstoits

self-learningcapabilities.

Basedonouranalysisandmodeling,we

canillustratewhathappenswhenAIis

seenasanewfactorofproductionrather

thanjustaproductivityenhancer.The

impactonprojectedgrowthfortheUnitedStates,forexample,isdramatic.AsFigure6shows,thefirstscenarioisbusiness-as-

usual,assumingnoAIeffect.Thesecond

indicatesthetraditionalviewofAIasaTFP

enhancerwhereithasalimitedimpact

ongrowth.Thethirdscenarioshowswhat

happenswhenAIcanactasanewfactorofproduction—thereisatransformativeeffectongrowth.ThisabilityofAItocomplementandenhancetraditionalfactorsof

productioniswhereitstruepotentiallies.

TheadvanceofAIisleadingus

torethinkfundamentaleconomic

relationshipsandhowvalueiscreated.

DAVIDLEHRER,CEO,CONATIX

5|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Developedeconomies:Theendofgrowth?

Onavarietyofkeymeasures,economicdataseemstosupportamood

oflong-termpessimism.

FIGURE1:GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT

Sincethe1980s,GDPgrowthhassteadilyslowedinmanylargeeconomies.

5.0

JAPAN

FRANCE

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

3.0

UNITEDSTATES

UNITEDKINGDOM

ITALY

GERMANY

2.1

1.1

1.1

1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

-1.0

RealGDPgrowth(%,annualaverageovertheperiod)

NB:Datapointsacrossthedashedlinesindicatetheaverageforthesixcountries.

Source:OxfordEconomics

6|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

FIGURE2:PRODUCTIVITY

Akeymeasureofhowwellaneconomyusesitsexistingcapitalandpeopleis“totalfactorproductivity”(TFP).DatashowaweakeningofTFP,especiallyinthepast10years.

3.0

2.5

JAPAN

UNITEDSTATES

UNITEDKINGDOM

FRANCE

ITALY

GERMANY

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

Totalfactorproductivity(%,annualaverageovertheperiod)

Source:TheConferenceBoard,TotalEconomicDatabase

7|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

FIGURE3:CAPITALEFFICIENCY

Themarginalcapitalefficiencyrate,anindicatoroftheproductivityofcapitalsuchasmachinesandbuildings,hassteadilydroppedovera50-yearperiod.

50

JAPAN

UNITEDSTATES

GERMANY

UNITEDKINGDOM

25

0

19661971197619811986199119962001200620112016

Marginalcapitalefficiency(%,6-yearmovingaverage)

Source:EuropeanCommission,AnnualMacroeconomicDatabase

FIGURE4:LABOR

Aspopulationsageandbirthratesslow,fewerpeopleareavailabletopickuptheslackintheworkforce.

2000-20152016-2030

0.9

0.3

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.6

0

0.5

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.02

UNITED

STATES

-0.6

SPAIN

-0.1

UNITEDBELGIUMSWEDENAUSTRIA

KINGDOM

-0.05

-0.3

-0.3

FRANCENETHERLANDSITALY

-0.2

FINLAND

-0.1

-0.7

GERMANY

-0.69

-0.73

JAPAN

Workingagepopulation(%,annualaveragegrowthovertheperiod)

Source:OxfordEconomics

8|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

23,835

TRADITIONAL

GROWTHMODEL

GROWTH

▲

ADAPTEDGROWTHMODEL

FIGURE5:THEAIGROWTHMODEL

OurmodeladaptsthetraditionalgrowthmodelbyincludingAIasafactorofproduction.

Capital

Labor

TFP

Capital

Labor

AI

TFP

NB:indicatesthechangeinthatfactor.

Source:Accentureanalysis

FIGURE6:THREEGROWTHSCENARIOSFORTHEUNITEDSTATES’ECONOMY

AIasanewfactorofproductioncanleadtosignificantgrowthopportunitiesfortheUnitedStates’economy.

23,835

897

7,408

23,835

897

UNITEDSTATES’GVA

AI-INDUCEDTFP

ADDITIONAL

AI-INDUCEDGROWTH

Projectedgrowth

withoutAI

Projectedgrowth

withAI’simpact

limitedtoTFP

Projectedgrowth

withAIasnew

factorofproduction

UnitedStates’grossvalueadded(GVA)in2035(US$billion)

Source:AccentureandFrontierEconomics

9|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

CONTENTS

10|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

WHATISARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE?

AIisnotanewfield;muchofitstheoreticalandtechnologicalunderpinningwasdevelopedoverthepast70yearsbycomputerscientistssuchasAlan

Turing,MarvinMinskyandJohnMcCarthy.Today,thetermreferstomultipletechnologiesthatcanbecombinedindifferentwaysto:

Comprehend

Naturallanguage

processingandinferenceenginescanenable

AIsystemstoanalyze

andunderstandthe

informationcollected.

Thistechnologyisusedtopowerthelanguagetranslationfeatureof

searchengineresults.

Act

AnAIsystemcan

takeactionthroughtechnologiessuchasexpertsystemsandinferenceengines,or

undertakeactionsinthephysicalworld.Auto-pilotfeaturesandassisted-

brakingcapabilitiesin

carsareexamplesofthis.

Sense

Computervisionandaudio

processing,forexample,

areabletoactively

perceivetheworldaround

thembyacquiringand

processingimages,sounds

andspeech.Theuseof

facialrecognitionatborder

controlkiosksisone

practicalexampleofhowit

canimproveproductivity.

Allthreecapabilitiesareunderpinnedbytheabilitytolearnfromexperienceandadapt

overtime.AIalreadyexiststosomedegreeinmanyindustriesbuttheextenttowhichitisbecomingpartofourdailylivesissettogrowfast.

10|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

CONTENTS

11|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

TwokeyfactorsareenablingAIgrowth:

1.Unlimitedaccesstocomputingpower.

PubliccloudcomputingwasestimatedtoreachalmostUS$70billionin2015worldwide.Datastoragehasalsobecomeabundant.

2.Growthinbigdata.

Globaldatahasseenacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)ofmorethan50percentsince

2010asmoreofthedevicesaroundushavebecomeconnected.AsBarrySmyth,professorof

computerscienceatUniversityCollegeDublin,toldus:“DataistoAIwhatfoodistohumans.”

Soinamoredigitalworld,theexponentialgrowthofdataisconstantlyfeedingAIimprovements.

EmergingAItechnologies

AITECHNOLOGIES

ILLUSTRATIVESOLUTIONS

ComputerVision

VirtualAgents

AudioProcessing

Sense

Identity

Analytics

CognitiveRobotics

NaturalLanguageProcessing

KnowledgeRepresentation

Comprehend

Speech

Analytics

RecommendationSystems

DataVisualization

MachineLearning

ExpertSystems

Act

Source:Accentureanalysis

11|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

THREECHANNELS

OFAI-LEDGROWTH

WithAIasthenewfactorofproduction,itcandrivegrowthinatleastthreeimportant

ways.First,itcancreateanewvirtualworkforce—whatwecall“intelligentautomation.”Second,AIcancomplementandenhancetheskillsandabilityofexistingworkforces

andphysicalcapital.Third,likeotherprevioustechnologies,AIcandriveinnovationsintheeconomy.Overtime,thisbecomesacatalystforbroadstructuraltransformationaseconomiesusingAInotonlydothingsdifferently,theywillalsododifferentthings.

Intelligentautomation

ThenewAI-poweredwaveofintelligentautomationisalreadycreatinggrowth

throughasetoffeaturesunlikethoseoftraditionalautomationsolutions.

Thefirstfeatureisitsabilitytoautomate

complexphysicalworldtasksthatrequireadaptabilityandagility.Considertheworkofretrievingitemsinawarehouse,wherecompanieshavereliedonpeople’sabilitytonavigatecrowdedspacesandavoid

movingobstacles.Now,robotsfromFetchRoboticsuselasersand3Ddepth-sensorstonavigatesafelyandworkalongside

warehouseworkers.Usedintandemwith

people,therobotscanhandlethevast

majorityofitemsinatypicalwarehouse.3

Whereastraditionalautomationtechnologyistaskspecific,theseconddistinctfeatureofAI-poweredintelligentautomationisitsabilitytosolveproblemsacrossindustriesandjobtitles.Forinstance,Amelia—anAI

platformbyIPsoftwithnaturallanguageprocessingcapabilities—hassupportedmaintenanceengineersinremote

locations.Havingreadallthemanuals,

Ameliacandiagnoseaproblemand

suggestasolution.4Thisplatformhasalsolearnedtheanswerstothe120questions

mostfrequentlyaskedbymortgagebrokersandhasbeenusedinabanktohandle

suchfinancialqueries,traditionallyalabor-intensivetask.5

12|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Thethirdandmostpowerfulfeatureof

intelligentautomationisself-learning,

enabledbyrepeatabilityatscale.Amelia,

likeaconscientiousemployee,recognizesthegapsinherownknowledgeandtakesstepstoclosethem.IfAmeliaispresentedwithaquestionthatshecannotanswer,

sheescalatesittoahumancolleague,

thenobserveshowthepersonsolvesthe

problem.Theself-learningaspectofAIis

afundamentalchange.Whereastraditionalautomationcapitaldegradesovertime,

intelligentautomationassets

constantlyimprove.

Laborandcapitalaugmentation

AsignificantpartoftheeconomicgrowthfromAIwillcomenotfromreplacing

existinglaborandcapital,butinenablingthemtobeusedmuchmoreeffectively.

Forexample,AIcanenablehumansto

focusonpartsoftheirrolethataddthe

mostvalue.Hotelstaffspendalotof

theirtimemakingroutineroomdeliveries.WhynotassignthetasktoRelay,an

autonomousserviceindustryrobot

developedbySavioke,instead?Lastyear,theRelayfleetmademorethan11,000

guestdeliveriesinthefivelargehotel

chainswhereitisdeployed.AsSteve

Cousins,CEOofSavioke,toldus:“Relayenablesstafftoredirecttheirtimetoward

increasingcustomersatisfaction.”

Also,AIaugmentslaborbycomplementing

humancapabilities,offeringemployeesnewtoolstoenhancetheirnatural

intelligence.Forexample,Praedicat,acompanyprovidingriskmodeling

servicestopropertyandcasualtyinsurers,isimprovingunderwriters’risk-pricing

abilities.Usingmachinelearningand

bigdataprocessingtechnologies,itsAI

platformreadsmorethan22millionpeer-reviewedscientificpaperstoidentify

seriousemergingrisks.Asaresult,

underwriterscannotonlypriceriskmoreaccurately,butalsocreatenewinsuranceproducts.6

AIcanalsoimprovecapitalefficiency—

acrucialfactorinindustrieswhereit

representsalargesunkcost.Forinstance,inmanufacturing,industrialrobotics

companyFanuchasteamedupwithCiscoandotherfirmstocreateaplatformto

reducefactorydowntime—estimatedat

onemajorautomotivemanufacturerto

costUS$20,000perminute.7TheFanuc

IntelligentEdgeLinkandDrive(FIELD)

systemisananalyticsplatformpowered

byadvancedmachinelearning.Itcapturesandanalyzesdatafromdisparateparts

ofthemanufacturingprocesstoimprovemanufacturingproduction.AlreadyFIELDhasbeendeployedinan18-month“zerodowntime”trialatonemanufacturer,

whereitrealizedsignificantcostsavings.8

13|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

OftenpeopleonlythinkofAIboosting

growthbysubstitutinghumans,

butactuallyhugevalueisgoingtocomefromthenewgoods,services

andinnovationsAIwillenable.

DAVIDAUTOR,PROFESSOROFECONOMICS,MIT

Innovationdiffusion

Oneoftheleast-discussedbenefitsof

artificialintelligenceisitsabilityto

propelinnovationsasitdiffusesthroughtheeconomy.

Takedriverlessvehicles.Usinga

combinationoflasers,globalpositioningsystems,radar,cameras,computer

visionandmachinelearningalgorithms,driverlessvehiclescanenableamachine

tosenseitssurroundingsandact

accordingly.NotonlyareSiliconValleytechnologycompaniesenteringthe

market,buttraditionalcompaniesare

buildingnewpartnershipstostayrelevant.

Forinstance,BMWiscollaboratingwith

ChineseInternetsearchgiantBaidu9;FordisworkingwithMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT)andStanfordUniversity.10

Asinnovationbegetsinnovation,the

potentialimpactofdriverlessvehicleson

economiescouldeventuallyextendwell

beyondtheautomotiveindustry.Mobile

serviceproviderscouldseeevenmore

demandfromsubscribersasdrivers,

nowfreetoenjoyleisureactivitieswhile

traveling,spendmoretimeontheInternet,which,inturn,couldcreatenew

advertisingopportunitiesfortheservice

providersandsellingopportunitiesfor

theirretailerpartners.

14|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Theinsuranceindustrycouldcreatenewrevenuestreamsfromthemassesofdata

thatself-drivingvehiclesgenerate.By

combiningvehicledatawithotherstreams

suchassmartphonesandpublictransport

systems,theycouldnotonlybuildupamorecompletepictureoftheircustomers,butalsotheycouldcreatenewpoliciesthatinsure

totalcustomermobility,notjustdriving.

Real-time,accurateroadandtrafficdata

generatedbydriverlessvehiclescould

supplementothersourcesofinformationtoenablelocalauthoritiestochangethewaytheychargeforroadusage.Standardvehicleregistrationcouldbereplacedwithmoreequitableandconvenientpay-per-useroadtolls,withinstantlyupdatedpricestohelpreducecongestion.

Therecouldevenbesignificantsocial

benefits.Driverlessvehiclesareexpectedtoreducethenumberofroadaccidents

andtrafficfatalitiesdramatically,making

thetechnologypotentiallyoneofthe

mosttransformativepublichealth

initiativesinhumanhistory.Theycouldalsogivebackindependencetopeoplewhocannotdriveduetodisability,

enablingthemtotakeupjobsfrom

whichtheywerepreviouslyexcluded.And,evenamongthosewhocandrive,driverlesscarswillmaketravelingfar

moreconvenient,freeinguptimethatpeoplecandedicatetoworkorleisure.

FACTORINGINAI

TounderstandthevalueofAIasanewfactorofproduction,Accenture,in

associationwithFrontierEconomics,modeledthepotentialimpactofAIfor12

developedeconomiesthattogethergeneratemorethan50percentoftheworld’seconomicoutput.11

Ourresultsrevealunprecedentedopportunitiesforvaluecreation.Wefind

thatAIhasthepotentialtodoubleannualeconomicgrowthratesacrossthesecountries—apowerfulremedyforslowingratesinrecentyears.

15|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Boostingnationaleconomicgrowth

Toestimatetheeconomicpotentialof

AIwecomparedtwoscenariosforeach

country.Thefirstisthebaseline,which

showstheexpectedannualeconomic

growthrateundercurrentassumptions

aboutthefuture.ThesecondistheAI

scenario,whichshowsexpectedeconomicgrowthoncetheimpactofAIhasbeen

absorbedintotheeconomy.Asittakes

timefortheimpactofanewtechnologytofeedthrough,weused2035astheyearofcomparison.(see“Appendix:ModelingtheGVAimpactofAI”).

Accordingtoourresearch,AIyieldsthe

highesteconomicbenefitsfortheUnited

Statesinabsoluteterms,culminatingina4.6percentgrowthrateby2035(seeFigure7).Japancouldmorethantripleitsgrossvalueadded(GVA)growthduringthesameperiod,

raisingitfrom0.8percentto2.7percent.

Germany,Austria,Swedenandthe

Netherlandscouldseetheirannual

economicgrowthratesdouble(see“AI’spotentialimpactonnationalgrowth”).

Cross-countrycomparisonsmaskthe

significantimpactthatAIcouldhaveonseeminglylaggingeconomies,suchas

Italy,SpainandBelgium.Whiletheleveloftechnologicalmaturityandpublic

investmentdoesnotyetmatchthatof

theirleadingpeers,thesecountriesarealsosettobenefitfromAI.Forinstance,AIisexpectedtoraiseItaly’sgrowthrateto1.8percentby2035—thelowestGVArateincreaseinthecountriesanalyzed—butthisisstillasizeableamount(nearlyUS$230billionor15percentofthe

country’scurrentGVA).

FIGURE7:THEECONOMICIMPACTOFAI

AIhasthepotentialtodoubleannualeconomicgrowthratesinthecountriesthatweanalyzedintermsofgrossvalueadded(acloseapproximationofGDP).

4.6

2.6

4.1

2.1

3.9

2.5

3.6

1.7

3.2

1.6

3.0

1.4

2.9

3.0

1.7

1.4

BASELINE

2.7

2.7

1.6

1.7

0.8

AISTEADYSTATE

2.5

1.8

1.0

UNITEDSTATES

FINLAND

UNITEDKINGDOM

SWEDEN

NETHERLANDSGERMANYAUSTRIA

FRANCEJAPANBELGIUM

SPAINITALY

Realgrossvalueadded(GVA)(%,growth)

Source:AccentureandFrontierEconomics

16|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

FIGURE8:INCREASEINLABORPRODUCTIVITYINANAIWORLD

Artificialintelligencepromisestosignificantlyboosttheproductivityoflaborindevelopedeconomies.

Sweden

Netherlands

37%

27%

Finland

UnitedKingdom

36%

25%

UnitedStates

France

35%

20%

Japan

Belgium

34%

17%

Austria

Italy

30%

12%

Germany

Spain

29%

11%

Percentagedifferencebetweenbaselinein2035andAIsteadystatein2035

Source:AccentureandFrontierEconomics

Laborproductivityrevival

AIhasthepotentialtoboostlabor

productivitybyupto40percentin2035inthecountrieswestudied(seeFigure8).Thisriseinlaborproductivitywillnotbe

drivenbylongerhoursbutbyinnovativetechnologiesenablingpeopletomake

moreefficientuseoftheirtime.

Thislaborproductivityincreasedramatically

reducesthenumberofyearsrequired

forouranalyzedcountries’economiestodoubleinsize(seeFigure9).Theresultsareprimarilydrivenbyacountry’sabilitytodiffusetechnologicalinnovationsintoitswidereconomicinfrastructure.Whilethegainsvaryfromcountrytocountry,ourresultsareindicativeofAI’sability

totranscendregionalandstructural

disparities,enablinghuge,rapidleapsinlaborproductivity.

17|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

FIGURE9:TIMEFORECONOMIESTODOUBLEINSIZE

AIpavesthewaytofastereconomicgrowth.

UnitedStates

France

UnitedKingdom

Japan

Germany

Italy

BaselineAIsteadystate

Numberofyearsfortheeconomytodoubleinsize(afullcirclerepresents100years)

Source:AccentureandFrontierEconomics

Overall,AIisexpectedtounleashremarkablebenefitsacrosscountries,counteringdismaleconomicgrowthprospectsandredefining“thenewnormal”asaperiodofhighandlong-lastingeconomicgrowth.

18|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

CONTENTS

19|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

AI’SPOTENTIALIMPACTON

NATIONALECONOMICGROWTH

Byfocusingonindividualcountries,wecananalyzetheimpactofAIinmoredetail.Wecomparethesizeofeacheconomyin2035ina

baselinescenariowiththeAIscenario,whereAIhasbeenabsorbedintotheeconomy.Wecanalsoseetherelativeimportanceofthe

threechannelsthroughwhichAIhasaneffect.

AIsteadystate

897

3,372

+US$8,305B

Baseline

4,036

UnitedStates

AstrongentrepreneurialbusinessclimateandadvancedinfrastructurepositiontheUnited

Statestobenefitfromtheeconomicpotential

23,835

23,835

ofAI.AccentureresearchforecastsasignificantincreaseinUnitedStates’GVAgrowth,from

2.6percentto4.6percentin2035—alevelnotseensincetheeconomicpeakinthe1980s.

ThistranslatestoanadditionalUS$8.3trillionGVAin2035—equivalenttotoday’scombinedGVAofJapan,GermanyandSweden.

TotalGVA:

US$32,140B

IntelligentAutomation

Augmentation

Totalfactorproductivity(TFP)

19|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

78

3,735

Baseline

3,206

AIsteadystate

319

416

3,206

TotalGVA:

US$4,020B

+US$814B

UnitedKingdom

AIcouldaddanadditionalUS$814billionin

2035totheUK’seconomy—withgrowthratesincreasingfrom2.5percentto3.9percent

in2035.Thegrowthboostwillresultin

approximatelyequalpartsfromtheaugmentationandintelligentautomationchannels.Whilethe

UK’sdominantservicesectorcanadoptAItofueltheproductivityofknowledgeworkers,Britain’sstrongpharmaceuticalandaerospaceindustry

couldalsocapitalizeonintelligentsystemstooptimizeproduction.

Baseline

6,059

AIsteadystate

162

+US$2,068B

958

948

6,059

TotalGVA:

US$8,128B

Japan

Inourmodel,AIwillaccelerateexpected

growthfrom0.8percentto2.7percentin2035,resultinginUS$2.1trillionofadditionalGVAfor

Japan.Amongthecountrieswestudied,Japanisexpectedtobenefitconsiderablyfromadditionalinnovationeffectsdrivenbyitssophisticated

researchnetworks,dominanceinpatent

applicationsandlongstandingprowessinfieldslikerobotics.Consideringitslargeelectronics

goodsindustry,JapanoffersafavorablecontextforAItostimulatewidergrowthimpact.

AIsteadystate

87

Baseline

+US$1,079B

447

545

3,735

TotalGVA:

US$4,814B

IntelligentAutomation

Augmentation

Totalfactorproductivity(TFP)

Germany

AIcouldcontributeanadditionalUS$1.1trillion

GVAforGermanyin2035.Thebulkofeconomicrewardswillstemfromintelligentautomation.Itsadvancedmanufacturingsector,coupledwith

initiativeslikeIndustry4.0,offerprimeconditionsforaseamlessintegrationofintelligentsystemsintoproductionprocesses.

20|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

CLEARINGTHEPATH

TOANAIFUTURE

EntrepreneurElonMuskhaswarnedthatartificialintelligencecouldbecomehumanity’s“biggestexistentialthreat.”ThemoreoptimisticviewoffuturistRayKurzweilisthatAIcanhelpustomake“majorstridesinaddressingthe[world’s]grandchallenges.”

Thetruthis,italldependsonhowwemanagethetransitiontoaneraofAI.

TofulfilthepromiseofAIasanewfactorofproductionthatcanreigniteeconomic

growth,relevantstakeholdersmustbethoroughlyprepared—intellectually,technologically,politically,ethically,socially—toaddressthechallengesthatariseasartificialintellige