银行深度 -39家上市银行三季报综述与拆分:收入增速分化有收敛&收入展望_第1页
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银行深度 -39家上市银行三季报综述与拆分:收入增速分化有收敛&收入展望_第3页
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请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分分析师戴志锋分析师戴志锋基本状况行业总市值(百万元)行业-市场走势对比10% 相关报告投资要点需求不足带来的价格压力蔓延到全部板块,不同板块银行基于不同类型客群的定价润同比+2.5%;与营收不同,业绩的释放、板块间的分化还产质量压力处于不同阶段,对应的利润释放策略也不一致;其中资产质量包袱相对结构有所改善;贷款中票据有所提升,对价格有一定拖累。定价维度,预计价格进而存款利率定价相对更加刚性,挂牌利率的下调反映到息差预成本存款占比的提升一定程度拉低负债端综合成本,布存款结构明细的银行数据来看,定期存款尤其是成本较高的个人定期存款占比进(VS1H23同比增4.1%手续费和其他非息收入均有所放缓。1)请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-2-动造成的低基数基础上有望增速提高。去年四季度债市波动对其他非息收入造成比请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-3-一、三季度业绩情况:营收同比-1.2%;净利润同比+2.5% 二、收入端拆解:净利息同比-2%;净非息同比+1.3% 三、资产质量:整体稳健;新生不良下降;安全边际维持较高水平 五、其他财务指标分析 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-4-一、三季度业绩情况:营收同比-1.2%;净利润同比+2.5%1.1营收情况:同比-1.2%;板块间的增速差在收敛。大行、股份行、城商行和农商行分别同比-0.4%、-异化在收敛。请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-5-%%%%营收PPOP20211Q221H223Q2220221Q231H233Q23环比变动20211Q221H223Q2220221Q231H233Q23环比变动工商银行7.8%4.0%3.4%建设银行7.2%2.0%2.4%0.6%3.9%0.6%农业银行9.3%4.5%2.8%0.2%2.1%0.8%7.4%4.8%中国银行0.9%2.6%7.6%4.9%4.2%2.0%8.7%4.0%交通银行2.7%3.2%0.1%4.2%4.1%0.9%9.2%3.8%0.7%3.3%4.2%邮储银行7.8%3.5%2.0%8.1%4.0%%%招商银行8.3%3.7%8.7%4.1%3.8%中信银行4.1%2.7%3.4%3.3%2.8%浦发银行0.8%0.1%0.2%0.4%民生/银行兴业银行8.7%4.2%0.9%光大银行7.1%0.2%0.3%%0.0%4.2%0.6%华夏银行0.6%0.7%0.7%平安银行8.7%8.7%-9.9%7.4%浙商银行22.5%2.4%4.6%4.0%20.7%25.3%9.2%0.4%北京银行3.0%2.0%3.2%0.0%0.8% 南京银行20.5%9.0%3.3%%22.4%7.9%3.1%0.5%宁波银行28.4%9.7%8.4%9.3%-30.7%8.8%7.7% 江苏银行22.6%9.1%24.6%7.3%9.8%9.2%贵阳银行2.5%9.5%4.3%3.1%3.4%3.6%杭州银行7.5%8.4%3.7%4.1%2.7%上海银行2.9%0.9%0.5%7.0%2.0%0.7%0.5%成都银行22.5%9.7%9.5%24.4%9.0%9.4%7.8%长沙银行8.7%9.6%8.4%-7.2%8.8%9.7%-青岛银行4.5%2.0%2.9%4.0%4.5%0.5%郑州银行7.2%8.9%2.0%0.5%西安银行0.9%3.7%0.0%3.8%3.0%苏州银行4.5%8.2%8.7%2.0%-0.9%4.1%8.4%2.8%2.9%-厦门/银行3.5%齐鲁银行28.2%8.8%8.7%8.3%32.0%22.5%8.5%9.1%重庆银行3.0%江阴银行0.4%22.3%26.3%21.9%4.1%0.4%31.7%36.0%27.7%8.4% 无锡银行9.2%3.1%3.5%2.8%0.9%%8.9%4.5%0.1%2.4%常熟银行0.2%23.9%20.6%22.0%20.9%9.8%8.4%3.6%苏农银行2.2%0.3%0.5%0.2%9.2%8.0%9.0%4.0%2.3%0.9%张家港行7.0%4.6% 9.7%29.6%-青农商行7.6%7.3%4.9%2.6%4.9%3.0%紫金银行0.6%3.5%2.7%2.1%0.0%0.4%0.4%0.0%4.0%0.1%0.3%2.7%2.4%渝农商行9.3%0.9%0.1%8.8%0.1%2.6%上市银行7.8%4.1%4.2%2.7%0.6%0.6%0.0%-1.2%5.5%3.4%3.0%1.0%-1.4%-1.2%-2.1%-3.5%国有行8.3%3.8%4.3%2.2%0.1%1.8%0.7%-0.4%5.7%3.7%3.0%0.8%-1.7%0.1%-1.2%-2.8%股份行5.3%3.5%2.7%1.8%0.4%-3.0%-2.9%-4.0%3.3%1.6%1.2%-0.6%-1.9%-4.6%-4.9%-5.7%城商行13.4%8.9%10.0%10.4%5.4%3.8%3.8%2.0%11.9%8.4%9.9%9.4%3.4%1.3%1.1%-0.6%农商行8.5%4.5%4.5%2.6%-0.1%1.8%1.3%0.6%7.1%5.6%4.1%0.3%-3.2%-3.3%-1.7%-1.2%0.5%共同驱动对应的利润释放策略也不一致;其中资产质量包袱相对较小的上市城商备共同贡献利润释放。度最小主要是由于拨备反哺和税收贡献力度大所致。成都银行,同比增速在20%以上。与营收端高增匹配的是江苏、常熟和请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-6-3232成都银行。杭州和苏州银行在优异的资产质量下拨备反哺利润是第一贡3Q223Q23环比变动 --厦门/银行股份行城商行2.1净利息收入:同比拆解和环比变动分析请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-7-规模扩张放缓共同影响度净利息收入唯一正增长的子板块,城商行主要是低利率时期下主动负>大行(-1.9%股份行(-3.6%)。板块主要是息差边际降幅略大,核心原因也是负债端的支撑力度在边际行规模增速不低的同时、息差降幅也好于可比同业;青岛银行主要是息请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-8-.2..%%%.4%..2..%%%.4%.净利息收入同比增速生息资产同比增速20211Q221H223Q2220221Q231H233Q23同比环比变动20211Q221H223Q2220221Q231H233Q23同比环比变动工商银行6.8%6.2%4.3%3.0%0.4%6.0%8.5%建设银行5.1%8.5%7.3%7.8%6.2%7.6%8.9% 农业银行6.0%7.7%5.9%4.3%2.1%0.0%7.4%8.7%中国银行2.2%5.3%7.0%8.2%8.4%7.0%4.8%3.2% 6.4%6.4%8.9%8.8%%交通银行5.5%8.4%7.3%5.1%0.1%9.4%9.9%9.6%9.3%9.1%邮储银行6.3%4.1%3.8%2.3%2.3%3.1%0.8%招商银行8.4%7.6%7.0%0.1%8.8%9.3%8.9%9.9%中信银行0.6%7.3%5.4%5.7%8.7%6.1%6.9%6.2%3.3%浦发银行2.5%0.2%2.7%4.7%4.7%3.5%7.5%5.0%4.6%4.7%民生/银行0.3%3.6%4.2%6.2%4.3%5.4%兴业银行2.4%0.7%9.7%6.4%7.7%9.9%9.3%光大银行0.1%%%8.1%9.6%6.7%6.8%8.2%9.5%华夏银行8.2%9.2%7.4%5.5%4.8%5.6%6.3%平安银行6.1%7.3%7.9%8.7%8.1%0.5%8.6%7.1%8.4%6.9%7.1%6.6%浙商银行2.2%3.2%20.4%北京银行0.7%0.5%0.1%0.1%5.0%3.0%4.5%3.9%南京银行0.3%4.8%0.6%宁波银行8.3%8.0%25.7%30.8%23.3%20.4%江苏银行23.0%6.4%7.1%0.7%贵阳银行0.9%6.5%7.2%3.0%4.4%5.6%7.3%6.2%6.8%6.9%5.3% 杭州银行9.1%3.5%7.5%8.7%8.5%3.8%上海银行9.1%5.7%3.1%8.4%8.3%7.2%7.5%8.8%7.0%6.9%6.4%成都银行21.9%9.6%21.8%21.9%长沙银行7.7%8.7%7.0%8.9%青岛银行6.1%8.4%6.3%4.7%0.6%4.4%5.7%9.1%郑州银行6.3%8.3%8.2%2.6%0.5%4.0%3.4%5.9%2.9%5.2%5.6%4.3%西安银行9.2%9.5%7.5%21.8% 苏州银行0.1%4.0%7.9%7.3%4.0%厦门/银行7.7%7.4%8.1%0.8%20.1%6.6%0.8%4.5%齐鲁银行8.2%20.6%20.1%重庆银行4.9%0.6%9.8%9.6%9.4%9.3%江阴银行22.1%20.3%2.4%7.3%9.8%7.6%无锡银行6.9%5.5%2.5%9.3%5.9%3.6%5.0%8.9%9.0%常熟银行24.0%20.9%苏农银行5.5%4.5%3.4%0.1%张家港行2.5%5.7%6.5%5.7%6.1%6.1%3.5%0.6% 9.5%青农商行0.2%5.9%4.4%2.8%4.9%4.9%7.3%紫金银行3.1%3.2%0.3%0.8%2.5%8.8%9.1%渝农商行8.2%7.9%6.7%6.9%9.3%9.1%8.6%上市银行4.6%5.1%4.5%4.1%3.0%-1.8%-1.4%-2.0%8.3%8.8%10.0%10.9%11.8%12.7%12.1%11.2%国有行5.4%6.9%5.9%5.3%3.7%-2.0%-1.3%-1.9%8.0%8.6%10.7%12.4%13.4%14.5%13.7%12.4%股份行1.6%0.7%0.7%0.8%0.6%-3.3%-3.2%-3.6%7.5%8.2%7.7%6.9%7.5%8.0%7.6%7.3%城商行9.4%6.3%6.1%6.7%5.8%4.1%3.3%2.3%12.3%12.1%11.8%11.3%13.0%12.6%12.9%13.2%%农商行6.3%3.1%2.0%0.6%1.1%-0.2%-0.9%-1.4%10.0%9.7%8.0%7.5%7.9%10.2%9.9%9.7%中小行边际略扩大。请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-9-累积年化净息差同比变动20221Q231H233Q2320221Q231H233Q23工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行中信银行浦发银行民生/银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行北京银行南京银行宁波银行2.04%2.00%1.95%1.90%-0.23%-0.20%-0.01%-0.11%江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行2.41%2.35%2.35%2.34%-0.01%0.01%0.01%-0.05%青岛银行1.82%1.85%1.87%1.87%0.03%0.14%0.10%0.07%郑州银行西安银行苏州银行厦门/银行齐鲁银行重庆银行江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行2.95%3.02%2.95%2.90%-0.10%-0.01%-0.07%-0.14%苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行渝农商行上市银行1.92%1.75%1.73%1.70%-0.13%-0.25%-0.23%-0.24%国有行1.87%1.70%1.67%1.65%-0.13%-0.28%-0.26%-0.26%股份行2.04%1.89%1.86%1.85%-0.13%-0.21%-0.20%-0.21%城商行1.88%1.80%1.76%1.74%-0.11%-0.13%-0.14%-0.16%农商行2.09%1.96%1.93%1.91%-0.14%-0.17%-0.18%-0.19%+1.5%和-0.3%。城商行净利息收入环比实现正增,主要是由于生息资产资产规模环比负增,都对净利息收入造成了拖累。个股方面北京和紫金行业净息差环比继续下降4bp,降幅略超预期。大行、股份行、城商行率环比下行1bp。大行、股份行、城商行和农商行资产端收益率分别环结构进一步改善。信贷结构中对公和零售贷款占比均有所下降,票据占生息资产收益率计息负债付息率工商银行4Q221Q232Q233Q23Q1环比变动Q2环比变动Q3环比变动1Q232Q233Q23Q1环比变动Q2环比变动Q3环比变动建设银行农业银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行浦发银行民生/银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行北京银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行西安银行苏州银行厦门/银行齐鲁银行重庆银行江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行渝农商行上市银行3.72%3.66%3.64%3.62%2.03%2.06%2.09%0.02%0.03%0.03%股份行3.51%3.47%3.44%3.43%2.01%0.03%0.03%0.05%城商行4.14%4.04%4.01%4.00%2.19%2.23%2.24%0.01%0.03%0.01%农商行4.18%4.15%4.11%4.10%2.28%2.32%2.34%0.00%0.04%0.01%4.12%4.03%3.97%3.94%2.16%2.18%2.17%0.00%0.02%债成本环比仍保持上升,存款利率下调还需一定时间起效。随着资金市负债端综合成本,不过由于居民风险偏好降低,企业投资意愿不足,再明细的银行数据来看,定期存款尤其是成本较高的个人定期存款占比进一步上升,推动综合负债成本提升。工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行中信银行浦发银行民生/银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行北京银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行西安银行苏州银行江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行渝农商行厦门/银行齐鲁银行沪农商行重庆银行兰州银行瑞丰银行股份行城商行农商行总计存款同业负债发债1Q231H233Q23环比变动1Q231H233Q23环比变动1Q231H233Q23环比变动工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行中信银行浦发银行民生/银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行北京银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行西安银行苏州银行厦门/银行齐鲁银行重庆银行江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行渝农商行上市银行77.8%77.5%77.7%国有行83.3%82.5%82.9%5.4%5.4%5.6%股份行67.1%67.8%67.6%21.3%20.5%20.9%城商行66.8%65.5%65.3%20.1%农商行76.9%77.6%77.3%9.9%9.6%9.5%2.2净非息收入:同比+1.3%,手续费和其他非息增幅均放缓手续费和其他非息收入均有所放缓。三季度行业非息收入、净手续费和比相对较高,受资金市场利率波动影响也比较超35%。其中招商银行是手续费主要贡献,南京、宁波和杭州银行则是估计有部分是互联网贷款压降以后、手续费支出同步减少的影响。请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-20-结算与清算代理及受托银行卡手续费信贷承诺及融资咨询1H2220221H231H2220221H231H2220221H231H2220221H23工商银行建设银行43.3%40.6%40.3%农业银行中国银行交通银行47.6%45.9%46.8%邮储银行4.8%招商银行中信银行40.9%41.3%42.8%40.1%浦发银行40.6%40.5%民生//银行41.0%44.9%47.2%44.4%42.8%4.7%4.1%兴业银行41.2%42.2%光大银行40.4%43.4%41.0%华夏银行40.1%41.0%平安银行48.8%49.1%43.4%浙商银行42.3%46.1%41.0%44.6%北京银行49.1%4.6%南京银行44.7%宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行4.4%49.7%杭州银行上海银行4.6%成都银行4.8%长沙银行40.9%42.4%青岛银行4.7%郑州银行西安银行41.2%45.8%苏州银行4.3%4.3%4.7%4.3%厦门/银行49.7%齐鲁银行40.6%重庆银行44.5%江阴银行无锡银行常熟银行46.4%苏农银行张家港行青农商行49.8%46.0%紫金银行44.8%4.8%渝农商行49.9%42.6%上市银行16.5%16.7%17.2%39.5%38.2%38.3%19.7%21.9%20.5%17.6%15.9%17.5%国有行21.1%22.4%21.2%39.4%37.6%37.5%14.7%16.8%15.7%16.4%13.9%17.4%股份行9.3%8.6%10.4%34.8%33.9%36.1%31.3%33.0%32.3%19.4%19.2%16.9%城商行5.6%5.0%5.5%68.8%71.3%63.6%4.0%4.4%5.0%20.5%18.5%23.5%农商行15.6%14.1%15.8%55.0%57.9%50.0%8.9%11.7%15.3%5.2%三、资产质量:整体稳健;新生不良下降;安全边际维持较高水平3.1不良维度:新生不良压力减小;不良率环比持平且处历史低位请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-21-位,较年初下降3bp,全年维持波动改善趋势。板块方面,大行、农商请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-22-202020211H223Q2220221Q231H233Q233Q23环比变动3Q23较年初变动工商银行0.00%建设银行0.00%农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行0.88%0.82%0.83%0.82%0.84%0.82%0.81%0.81%0.00%招商银行0.91%0.95%0.95%0.96%0.95%0.95%0.96%0.00%0.00%中信银行0.02%浦发银行0.02%民生/银行兴业银行0.00%光大银行0.05%0.10%华夏银行0.00%平安银行0.01%浙商银行0.00%北京银行南京银行0.92%0.92%0.90%0.90%0.90%0.90%0.90%0.90%0.00%0.00%宁波银行0.79%0.77%0.77%0.77%0.75%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.00%0.01%江苏银行0.98%0.96%0.94%0.92%0.91%0.91%0.00%贵阳银行0.14%0.17%杭州银行0.86%0.79%0.77%0.77%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.00%上海银行成都银行0.98%0.83%0.81%0.78%0.76%0.72%0.71%0.00%长沙银行0.00%0.00%青岛银行0.00%郑州银行2.08%0.01%0.00%西安银行0.01%0.01%苏州银行0.90%0.88%0.88%0.87%0.86%0.84%厦门/银行0.98%0.91%0.90%0.86%0.86%0.86%0.80%0.79%齐鲁银行重庆银行0.12%江阴银行0.98%0.98%0.98%0.97%0.98%0.98%0.00%无锡银行0.93%0.87%0.86%0.81%0.78%0.77%0.78%0.00%常熟银行0.96%0.81%0.80%0.78%0.81%0.75%0.75%0.75%0.00%苏农银行0.95%0.94%0.95%0.94%0.92%0.91%0.00%张家港行0.94%0.91%0.90%0.89%0.85%0.88%0.95%0.07%0.06%青农商行2.19%2.09%紫金银行渝农商行上市银行1.48%1.34%1.33%1.31%1.30%1.27%1.28%1.27%0.00%国有行1.50%1.36%1.36%1.34%1.33%1.29%1.30%1.30%股份行1.47%1.33%1.32%1.30%1.29%1.27%1.26%1.27%0.01%城商行1.29%1.16%1.16%1.13%1.10%1.08%1.06%1.06%0.00%农商行1.33%1.24%1.17%1.19%1.22%1.19%1.16%1.16%请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-23-请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-24-2019202020213Q2220223Q23厦门/银行1.57%1.56%1.41%1.29%1.14%1.31%1.11%1.26%1.36%1.30%1.26%1.09%1.13%1.10%1.09%1.08%2.07%2.16%1.77%1.75%1.21%1.78%1.23%1.69%1.68%1.84%1.51%1.48%0.65%1.51%0.54%1.36%1.58%1.43%1.13%1.22%1.41%1.38%请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-25-拨备覆盖率拨贷比20221Q231H233Q233Q23环比较年初20221Q231H233Q233Q23环比较年初工商银行209.47%213.57%218.62%216.22%-2.40%6.75%2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0% .9% .1% .4%0%0.%3%1%6%%1.7%71.4%4股份行04%-.0%-.9%-.0%5%7.5%7.7.8%7.7%7.6%9%.1%.9%.3%6%-2.5%5%6%03%1.8%81.2%2城商行54%3.8%3.8%12.2%12.2%12.8%12.8%12.7%12.7%12.8%12.8%5%7%4%.5%9%-4.0%0%7%6%3.5 %52. %农商行-.1%1%1.3%6%8.6%9.1%9.1%9.3%9.3%9.4%9.4% 5% 3%.3%.9%9%0.%3%01%6%2. %1.9%9请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-29-%4622.531....%22....53783...%4622.531....%22....53783...净利润同比营收成本拨备税收20221Q231H233Q2320221Q231H233Q2320221Q231H233Q2320221Q231H233Q2320221Q231H233Q23工商银行3.5%0.0%1.2%0.8%-2.2%-2.7%-3.1%-4.2%-1.4%-2.8%-2.2%-2.3%3.0%1.7%2.2%3.3%3.6%4.3%4.1%4.0%4.0%建设银行7.1%0.3%3.4%3.1%-0.9%1.1%-0.5%-1.1%-1.0%-0.5%-0.7%-1.3%2.8%0.6%3.5%4.7%5.4%0.9%0.8%0.9%农业银行7.4%1.8%3.3%5.0%0.2%2.1%0.8%-0.6%-2.4%-1.0%-2.0%-2.5%5.7%-3.6%1.2%4.1%3.4%5.3%4.0%4.2%4.2%中国银行5.0%0.5%0.8%1.6%1.9%7.6%5.9%4.9%0.2%1.1%-0.2%-0.8%0.9%-1.1%-3.2%-2.3%1.6%-5.1%0.9%1.8%1.8%交通银行5.2%5.6%4.5%1.9%0.1%4.2%4.1%1.0%-1.4%-1.0%0.1%-1.3%5.8%1.8%4.7%4.1%-1.1%2.0%-3.4%-1.3%-1.3%邮储银行11.9%5.2%5.2%2.4%5.1%3.5%2.0%1.2%-6.2%-9.2%-9.2%-10.1%13.3%8.0%11.1%9.1%-0.6%2.7%1.4%2.2%2.2%招商银行15.1%7.8%9.1%6.5%3.7%-1.8%-0.5%-1.9%-1.0%1.4%2.6%1.7%0.1%-2.2%-1.9%-0.9%7.6%9.6%11.1%7.3%7.3%中信银行11.6%10.3%10.9%9.2%3.3%-4.9%-2.0%-2.6%-1.8%-3.9%-3.0%-2.6%10.5%15.4%14.4%10.4%-0.4%4.3%2.0%4.3%4.3%浦发银行-3.5%-18.3%-23.3%-30.8%-1.4%-4.0%-7.7%-7.8%-2.5%-1.3%-2.7%-2.2%-1.1%-8.9%-12.7%-20.0%1.7%-3.4%0.3%-0.4%-0.4%民生/银行2.6%3.7%-3.5%-0.6%-16.1%-0.1%-3.9%-2.4%-8.2%-2.3%-2.2%-1.9%28.7%5.7%-0.6%3.4%-1.8%0.4%3.0%0.3%0.3%兴业银行10.5%-8.9%-4.9%-9.5%1.0%-17.4%-6.7%-6.3%-5.5%-0.6%-2.3%-2.2%16.1%-1.0%0.6%-5.1%-1.2%0.1%1.0%3.1%3.1%光大银行3.2%5.3%3.3%3.0%-0.8%-1.5%-2.4%-4.4%-0.3%0.5%-1.4%-2.4%6.8%7.1%4.5%5.4%-2.5%-0.8%2.6%4.4%4.4%华夏银行6.4%4.1%5.1%5.1%-2.1%-3.6%-2.8%-3.9%-1.7%0.2%-0.3%-0.6%10.4%7.7%9.0%10.5%0.0%0.0%-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%平安银行25.3%13.6%14.9%8.1%6.2%-2.4%-3.7%-7.7%1.2%0.4%0.2%-0.2%17.4%15.5%18.4%14.1%0.5%0.1%0.0%1.9%1.9%浙商银行7.7%9.9%11.0%10.5%12.1%2.4%4.6%4.0%-2.8%-7.2%-5.4%-3.6%-3.6%21.2%11.3%8.9%2.6%-6.6%0.6%1.5%1.5%北京银行11.4%1.9%4.9%4.5%0.0%-6.9%-1.6%-3.2%-1.8%-6.4%-4.6%-6.0%9.1%14.5%11.7%13.6%4.0%0.7%-0.7%-0.1%-0.1%南京银行16.0%8.2%5.3%2.1%9.0%5.5%3.3%1.4%-1.2%-2.4%-4.2%-0.9%5.4%6.6%8.3%2.6%2.8%-1.0%-2.0%-1.0%-1.0%宁波银行18.1%15.3%14.9%12.6%9.6%8.5%9.3%5.4%-0.2%1.3%-4.7%-4.3%-0.9%-2.1%-1.6%-4.2%14.9%13.9%6.7%10.2%10.2%江苏银行28.9%24.8%27.2%25.2%10.5%10.3%10.6%9.1%-3.2%0.2%-0.8%0.1%15.9%13.0%20.5%17.9%5.9%0.9%-3.1%-1.8%-1.8%贵阳银行1.0%1.1%-2.3%-2.9%4.3%3.2%-3.1%-5.2%1.0%0.5%-1.6%-0.5%-5.3%-2.2%2.0%3.3%-0.2%-1.9%-0.2%-0.5%-0.5%杭州银行26.1%28.1%26.3%26.1%12.2%7.5%6.1%5.2%-3.8%-3.8%-1.9%-2.6%14.4%27.3%25.6%27.8%3.4%-2.9%-3.5%-4.4%-4.4%上海银行1.1%3.2%1.3%1.0%-5.5%-7.1%-5.6%-5.8%-1.8%-3.4%-4.6%-4.0%9.4%20.8%17.9%16.2%-1.0%-7.0%-6.4%-5.5%-5.5%成都银行28.2%17.5%25.1%20.8%13.1%9.7%11.1%9.5%-2.5%-0.6%-1.8%-1.7%22.3%11.3%21.8%20.2%-4.6%-3.0%-6.0%-7.2%-7.2%长沙银行8.0%8.7%10.6%9.2%9.6%12.9%12.1%8.4%0.1%3.7%1.7%1.6%-1.2%-5.8%-2.3%-2.0%0.3%0.1%1.1%1.4%1.4%青岛银行5.5%15.8%15.8%15.2%4.5%15.5%2.0%1.8%-1.6%2.0%2.0%2.7%-5.7%1.3%15.7%19.4%8.6%0.1%-3.1%-7.9%-7.9%郑州银行-24.9%1.9%-19.1%-19.2%2.0%-3.1%-8.5%-10.6%-0.1%-4.1%-4.4%-4.1%-31.5%7.9%-9.3%-8.5%6.1%0.3%2.4%3.6%3.6%西安银行-13.6%8.2%8.6%7.1%-8.9%17.2%5.3%3.7%-3.7%1.2%-1.5%-0.7%-6.6%-15.8%1.6%0.2%5.5%5.8%3.4%3.8%3.8%苏州银行26.1%20.8%21.0%21.4%8.6%5.8%5.6%2.0%-2.6%-3.1%-2.6%-3.2%20.0%18.7%16.4%20.2%-0.9%0.7%2.1%2.1%厦门/银行15.5%15.0%15.9%14.6%10.9%5.1%3.6%-3.5%0.0%-5.2%-5.2%-6.8%-6.2%21.0%27.9%36.8%11.4%-5.5%-9.5%-10.3%-10.3%齐鲁银行18.1%12.3%15.5%16.2%8.8%8.7%10.9%8.3%-0.4%1.9%0.7%0.9%7.3%-3.5%0.5%5.4%2.3%5.1%3.1%1.5%1.5%重庆银行4.4%2.7%4.3%0.7%-12.1%-2.2%1.3%-7.4%15.3%3.6%-2.6%2.4%2.1%2.4%6.7%6.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%江阴银行26.8%12.7%14.1%15.2%12.3%4.1%1.2%0.4%5.7%1.0%11.7%7.9%8.4%-12.0%15.4%18.7%-0.6%19.7%-1.0%-3.8%-3.8%无锡银行26.6%23.2%20.7%16.1%3.1%3.5%2.7%0.9%-3.0%-1.7%-0.4%-4.7%26.4%23.9%22.8%22.1%-1.9%-2.9%-4.1%-2.5%-2.5%常熟银行25.4%20.6%20.7%21.1%15.1%13.3%12.3%12.5%5.9%-3.5%-3.9%-0.5%3.8%9.7%12.0%9.3%0.2%1.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%苏农银行29.5%16.2%15.2%15.8%5.3%1.5%0.3%0.6%-1.2%0.8%-2.8%-2.1%31.6%12.0%14.3%20.2%-5.8%1.8%3.1%-2.8%-2.8%张家港行29.0%17.6%13.6%10.3%4.6%-0.8%1.2%-3.8%0.5%-12.2%-8.2%-6.8%30.2%31.8%21.1%24.6%-8.0%-2.6%-2.0%-3.7%-3.7%青农商行-24.4%5.6%8.2%8.8%-3.4%7.3%4.8%2.6%-1.3%-1.2%0.1%0.4%-32.8%-0.8%2.6%3.9%13.4%1.3%1.6%2.6%2.6%紫金银行5.6%5.5%5.7%5.8%0.0%1.6%0.3%0.4%-4.3%-1.4%-0.1%2.3%13.3%-6.6%1.1%3.3%-3.6%12.2%3.9%-0.3%-0.3%渝农商行5.8%9.2%9.5%7.7%-6.0%-3.3%-3.1%-3.0%-6.0%-7.8%-5.3%-2.8%15.2%19.0%20.0%14.1%4.6%1.4%-2.0%-0.6%-0.6%上市银行7.2.3%33.%2.0%.9%.8%.0%.2%6.3.4.4.2.%2%2.%国有行6.%2.%2.%07%.7%.8%.9%.4%3.%0.2.3.3.%9%2.2.%9.2.5%--9%-0%.3%-.6%-.0%-.7%116.6.3.0.02%0.113.11.7%11105%33.0%-.6%-.8%-.6%9.1213138%3%8%农商行8.1111107%%3%-.1%.1%-.0%-.7%101214122.%22%6%款定期化仍有一定持续。请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-30-20221Q231-3Q232023E1Q24E1H24E1-3Q24E2024E净利息收入同比增速农业银行交通银行招商银行民生/银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行北京银行南京银行宁波银行杭州银行上海银行青岛银行西安银行厦门/银行重庆银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行紫金银行渝农商行3.0%3.0%4.1%4.5%4.7%3.7%3.5%4.3%4.8%5.0%0.6%5.5%3.9%3.4%5.6%8.7%9.0%0.3%其他非息收入四季度在去年同期债市波动造成的低基数基础上有望增置特点影响、修复进程相对较慢,其他非息在低利率环境下预计对营收仍有一定的支撑。请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分-31-五、其他财务指标分析5.1成本收入比同比边际上升:收入端增速放缓拖累;银行着手成本端优化累积年化成本收入比业务及管理费同比增速3Q2220221Q231H233Q231H23同比变动3Q23同比变动3Q2220221Q231H233Q23工商银行23.6%27.3%20.7%23.2%25.0%7.7%5.5%2.4%建设银行23.5%28.1%21.5%23.6%24.5%0.5%3.0%2.8%3.2%农业银行27.8%33.3%24.7%27.6%29.4%5.9%4.5%4.8%6.0%5.3%中国银行27.9%30.4%26.4%27.4%28.5%0.2%0.6%0.9%4.8%6.5%7.0%交通银行31.5%32.0%32.0%31.3%32.5%0.1%8.4%3.1%7.2%4.4%4.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