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CHAPTER5THEMARKETFORFOREIGNEXCHANGE
SUGGESTEDANSWERSANDSOLUTIONSTOEND-OF-CHAPTER
QUESTIONSANDPROBLEMS
QUESTIONS
1.Giveafulldefinitionofthemarketforforeignexchange.
Answer:Broadlydefined,theforeignexchange(FX)marketencompassestheconversionofpurchasingpowerfromonecurrencyintoanother,bankdepositsofforeigncurrency,theextensionofcreditdenominatedinaforeigncurrency,foreigntradefinancing,andtradinginforeigncurrencyoptionsandfuturescontracts.
2.Whatisthedifferencebetweentheretailorclientmarketandthewholesaleorinterbankmarketforforeignexchange?
Answer:Themarketforforeignexchangecanbeviewedasatwo-tiermarket.Onetieristhewholesaleorinterbankmarketandtheothertieristheretailorclientmarket.InternationalbanksprovidethecoreoftheFXmarket.Theystandwillingtobuyorsellforeigncurrencyfortheirownaccount.Theseinternationalbanksservetheirretailclients,corporationsorindividuals,inconductingforeigncommerceormakinginternationalinvestmentinfinancialassetsthatrequiresforeignexchange.Retailtransactionsaccountforonlyabout14percentofFXtrades.Theother86percentisinterbanktradesbetweeninternationalbanks,ornon-bankdealerslargeenoughtotransactintheinterbankmarket.
3.Whoarethemarketparticipantsintheforeignexchangemarket?
Answer:ThemarketparticipantsthatcomprisetheFXmarketcanbecategorizedintofivegroups:internationalbanks,bankcustomers,non-bankdealers,FXbrokers,andcentralbanks.InternationalbanksprovidethecoreoftheFXmarket.Approximately100to200banksworldwidemakeamarketinforeignexchange,i.e.,theystandwillingtobuyorsellforeigncurrencyfortheirownaccount.Theseinternationalbanksservetheirretailclients,thebankcustomers,inconductingforeigncommerceormakinginternationalinvestmentinfinancialassetsthatrequiresforeignexchange.Non-bankdealersarelargenon-bankfinancialinstitutions,suchasinvestmentbanks,mutualfunds,pensionfunds,andhedgefunds,whosesizeandfrequencyoftradesmakeitcost-effectivetoestablishtheirowndealingroomstotradedirectlyintheinterbankmarketfortheirforeignexchangeneeds.
Mostinterbanktradesarespeculativeorarbitragetransactionswheremarketparticipantsattempttocorrectlyjudgethefuturedirectionofpricemovementsinonecurrencyversusanotherorattempttoprofitfromtemporarypricediscrepanciesincurrenciesbetweencompetingdealers.
FXbrokersmatchdealerorderstobuyandsellcurrenciesforafee,butdonottakeapositionthemselves.Interbanktradersuseabrokerprimarilytodisseminateasquicklyaspossibleacurrencyquotetomanyotherdealers.
Centralbankssometimesinterveneintheforeignexchangemarketinanattempttoinfluencethepriceofitscurrencyagainstthatofamajortradingpartner,oracountrythatit“fixes”or“pegs”itscurrencyagainst.Interventionistheprocessofusingforeigncurrencyreservestobuyone’sowncurrencyinordertodecreaseitssupplyandthusincreaseitsvalueintheforeignexchangemarket,oralternatively,sellingone’sowncurrencyforforeigncurrencyinordertoincreaseitssupplyandloweritsprice.
4.Howareforeignexchangetransactionsbetweeninternationalbankssettled?
Answer:Theinterbankmarketisanetworkofcorrespondentbankingrelationships,withlargecommercialbanksmaintainingdemanddepositaccountswithoneanother,calledcorrespondentbankaccounts.Thecorrespondentbankaccountnetworkallowsfortheefficientfunctioningoftheforeignexchangemarket.Asanexampleofhowthenetworkofcorrespondentbankaccountsfacilitiesinternationalforeignexchangetransactions,consideraU.S.importerdesiringtopurchasemerchandiseinvoicedinguildersfromaDutchexporter.TheU.S.importerwillcontacthisbankandinquireabouttheexchangerate.IftheU.S.importeracceptstheofferedexchangerate,thebankwilldebittheU.S.importer’saccountforthepurchaseoftheDutchguilders.ThebankwillinstructitscorrespondentbankintheNetherlandstodebititscorrespondentbankaccounttheappropriateamountofguildersandtocredittheDutchexporter’sbankaccount.Theimporter’sbankwillthendebititsbookstooffsetthedebitofU.S.importer’saccount,reflectingthedecreaseinitscorrespondentbankaccountbalance.
5.Whatismeantbyacurrencytradingatadiscountoratapremiumintheforwardmarket?
Answer:Theforwardmarketinvolvescontractingtodayforthefuturepurchaseorsaleofforeignexchange.Theforwardpricemaybethesameasthespotprice,butusuallyitishigher(atapremium)orlower(atadiscount)thanthespotprice.
PROBLEMS
1.UsingExhibit5.4,calculateacross-ratematrixfortheeuro,Swissfranc,Japaneseyen,andtheBritishpound.UsethemostcurrentAmericantermquotestocalculatethecross-ratessothatthetriangularmatrixresultingissimilartotheportionabovethediagonalinExhibit5.6.
Solution:Thecross-rateformulawewanttouseis:
S(j/k)=S($/k)/S($/j).
Thetriangularmatrixwillcontain4x(4+1)/2=10elements.
¥
SF
£
$
Euro
138.05
1.5481
.6873
1.3112
Japan(100)
1.1214
.4979
.9498
Switzerland
.4440
.8470
U.K
1.9077
2.UsingExhibit5.4,calculatetheone-,three-,andsix-monthforwardcross-exchangeratesbetweentheCanadiandollarandtheSwissfrancusingthemostcurrentquotations.Statetheforwardcross-ratesin“Canadian”terms.
Solution:Theformulaswewanttouseare:
FN(CD/SF)=FN($/SF)/FN($/CD)
or
FN(CD/SF)=FN(CD/$)/FN(SF/$).
WewillusethetopformulathatusesAmericantermforwardexchangerates.
F1(CD/SF)=.8485/.8037=1.0557
F3(CD/SF)=.8517/.8043=1.0589
F6(CD/SF)=.8573/.8057=1.0640
3.Restatethefollowingone-,three-,andsix-monthoutrightforwardEuropeantermbid-askquotesinforwardpoints.
Spot 1.3431-1.3436
One-Month 1.3432-1.3442
Three-Month 1.3448-1.3463
Six-Month 1.3488-1.3508
Solution:
One-Month 01-06
Three-Month 17-27
Six-Month 57-72
4.Usingthespotandoutrightforwardquotesinproblem3,determinethecorrespondingbid-askspreadsinpoints.
Solution:
Spot 5
One-Month 10
Three-Month 15
Six-Month 20
5.UsingExhibit5.4,calculatetheone-,three-,andsix-monthforwardpremiumordiscountfortheCanadiandollarversustheU.S.dollarusingAmericantermquotations.Forsimplicity,assumeeachmonthhas30days.Whatistheinterpretationofyourresults?
Solution:Theformulawewanttouseis:
fN,CD=[(FN($/CD)-S($/CD/$)/S($/CD)]x360/N
f1,CD=[(.8037-.8037)/.8037]x360/30=.0000
f3,CD=[(.8043-.8037)/.8037]x360/90=.0030
f6,CD=[(.8057-.8037)/.8037]x360/180=.0050
ThepatternofforwardpremiumsindicatesthattheCanadiandollaristradingatanincreasingpremiumversustheU.S.dollar.Thatis,itbecomesmoreexpensive(inbothabsoluteandpercentageterms)tobuyaCanadiandollarforwardforU.S.dollarsthefurtherintothefutureonecontracts.
6.UsingExhibit5.4,calculatetheone-,three-,andsix-monthforwardpremiumordiscountfortheU.S.dollarversustheBritishpoundusingEuropeantermquotations.Forsimplicity,assumeeachmonthhas30days.Whatistheinterpretationofyourresults?
Solution:Theformulawewanttouseis:
fN,$=[(FN(£/$)-S(£/$))/S(£/$)]x360/N
f1,$=[(.5251-.5242)/.5242]x360/30=-.0023
f3,$=[(.5268-.5242)/.5242]x360/90=-.0198
f6,$=[(.5290-.5242)/.5242]x360/180=-.0183
ThepatternofforwardpremiumsindicatesthattheBritishpoundistradingatadiscountversustheU.S.dollar.Thatis,itbecomesmoreexpensivetobuyaU.S.dollarforwardforBritishpounds(inabsolutebutnotpercentageterms)thefurtherintothefutureonecontracts.
7.Giventhefollowinginformation,whataretheNZD/SGDcurrencyagainstcurrencybid-askquotations?
AmericanTerms EuropeanTerms
BankQuotations Bid Ask Bid Ask
NewZealanddollar .7265 .7272 1.3751 1.3765
Singaporedollar .6135 .6140 1.6287 1.6300
Solution:Equation5.12fromthetextimpliesSb(NZD/SGD)=Sb($/SGD)xSb(NZD/$)=.6135x1.3765=.8445.Thereciprocal,1/Sb(NZD/SGD)=Sa(SGD/NZD)=1.1841.Analogously,itisimpliedthatSa(NZD/SGD)=Sa($/SGD)xSa(NZD/$)=.6140x1.3765=.8452.Thereciprocal,1/Sa(NZD/SGD)=Sb(SGD/NZD)=1.1832.Thus,theNZD/SGDbid-askspreadisNZD0.8445-NZD0.8452andtheSGD/NZDspreadisSGD1.1832-SGD1.1841.
8. AssumeyouareatraderwithDeutscheBank.Fromthequotescreenonyourcomputerterminal,younoticethatDresdnerBankisquoting€0.7627/$1.00andCreditSuisseisofferingSF1.1806/$1.00.YoulearnthatUBSismakingadirectmarketbetweentheSwissfrancandtheeuro,withacurrent€/SFquoteof.6395.Showhowyoucanmakeatriangulararbitrageprofitbytradingattheseprices.(Ignorebid-askspreadsforthisproblem.)Assumeyouhave$5,000,000withwhichtoconductthearbitrage.WhathappensifyouinitiallyselldollarsforSwissfrancs?What€/SFpricewilleliminatetriangulararbitrage?
Solution:TomakeatriangulararbitrageprofittheDeutscheBanktraderwouldsell$5,000,000toDresdnerBankat€0.7627/$1.00.Thistradewouldyield€3,813,500=$5,000,000x.7627.TheDeutscheBanktraderwouldthenselltheeurosforSwissfrancstoUnionBankofSwitzerlandatapriceof€0.6395/SF1.00,yieldingSF5,963,253=€3,813,500/.6395.TheDeutscheBanktraderwillreselltheSwissfrancstoCreditSuissefor$5,051,036=SF5,963,253/1.1806,yieldingatriangulararbitrageprofitof$51,036.
IftheDeutscheBanktraderinitiallysold$5,000,000forSwissfrancs,insteadofeuros,thetradewouldyieldSF5,903,000=$5,000,000x1.1806.TheSwissfrancswouldinturnbetradedforeurostoUBSfor€3,774,969=SF5,903,000x.6395.TheeuroswouldberesoldtoDresdnerBankfor$4,949,481=€3,774,969/.7627,oralossof$50,519.Thus,itisnecessarytoconductthetriangulararbitrageinthecorrectorder.
TheS(€/SF)crossexchangerateshouldbe.7627/1.1806=.6460.Thisisanequilibriumrateatwhichatriangulararbitrageprofitwillnotexist.(Thestudentcandeterminethisforhimself.)AprofitresultsfromthetriangulararbitragewhendollarsarefirstsoldforeurosbecauseSwissfrancsarepurchasedforeurosattoolowarateincomparisontotheequilibriumcross-rate,i.e.,Swissfrancsarepurchasedforonly€0.6395/SF1.00insteadoftheno-arbitragerateof€0.6460/SF1.00.Similarly,whendollarsarefirstsoldforSwissfrancs,anarbitragelossresultsbecauseSwissfrancsaresoldforeurosattoolowarate,resultingintoofeweuros.Thatis,eachSwissfrancissoldfor€0.6395/SF1.00insteadofthehigherno-arbitragerateof€0.6460/SF1.00.
9. Thecurrentspotexchangerateis$1.95/£andthethree-monthforwardrateis$1.90/£.Basedonyouranalysisoftheexchangerate,youareprettyconfidentthatthespotexchangeratewillbe$1.92/£inthreemonths.Assumethatyouwouldliketobuyorsell£1,000,000.
a. Whatactionsdoyouneedtotaketospeculateintheforwardmarket?Whatistheexpecteddollarprofitfromspeculation?
b. Whatwouldbeyourspeculativeprofitindollartermsifthespotexchangerateactuallyturnsouttobe$1.86/£.
Solution:
a. Ifyoubelievethespotexchangeratewillbe$1.92/£inthreemonths,youshouldbuy£1,000,000forwardfor$1.90/£.Yourexpectedprofitwillbe:
$20,000=£1,000,000x($1.92-$1.90).
b. Ifthespotexchangerateactuallyturnsouttobe$1.86/£inthreemonths,yourlossfromthelongpositionwillbe:
-$40,000=£1,000,000x($1.86-$1.90).
10. OmniAdvisors,aninternationalpensionfundmanager,planstosellequitiesdenominatedinSwissFrancs(CHF)andpurchaseanequivalentamountofequitiesdenominatedinSouthAfricanRands(ZAR).
Omniwillrealizenetproceedsof3millionCHFattheendof30daysandwantstoeliminatetheriskthattheZARwillappreciaterelativetotheCHFduringthis30-dayperiod.ThefollowingexhibitshowscurrentexchangeratesbetweentheZAR,CHF,andtheU.S.dollar(USD).
CurrencyExchangeRates
ZAR/USD
ZAR/USD
CHF/USD
CHF/USD
Maturity
Bid
Ask
Bid
Ask
Spot
6.2681
6.2789
1.5282
1.5343
30-day
6.2538
6.2641
1.5226
1.5285
90-day
6.2104
6.2200
1.5058
1.5115
DescribethecurrencytransactionthatOmnishouldundertaketoeliminatecurrencyriskoverthe30-dayperiod.
Calculatethefollowing:
•TheCHF/ZARcross-currencyrateOmniwoulduseinvaluingtheSwissequityportfolio.
•ThecurrentvalueofOmni’sSwissequityportfolioinZAR.
•TheannualizedforwardpremiumordiscountatwhichtheZARistradingversustheCHF.
CFAGuidelineAnswer:
ToeliminatethecurrencyriskarisingfromthepossibilitythatZARwillappreciateagainsttheCHFoverthenext30-dayperiod,Omnishouldsell30-dayforwardCHFagainst30-dayforwardZARdelivery(sell30-dayforwardCHFagainstUSDandbuy30-dayforwardZARagainstUSD).
Thecalculationsareasfollows:
•Usingthecurrencycrossratesoftwoforwardforeigncurrenciesandthreecurrencies (CHF,ZAR,USD),theexchangewouldbeasfollows:
--30dayforwardCHFaresoldforUSD.Dollarsareboughtattheforwardselling priceofCHF1.5285=$1(doneatasksidebecausegoingfromcurrencyinto dollars)
--30dayforwardZARarepurchasedforUSD.Dollarsaresimultaneouslysoldto purchaseZARattherateof6.2538=$1(doneatthebidsidebecausegoingfrom dollarsintocurrency)
--Forevery1.5285CHFheld,6.2538ZARarereceived;thusthecrosscurrencyrateis 1.5285CHF/6.2538ZAR=0.244411398.
•Atthetimeofexecutionoftheforwardcontracts,thevalueofthe3millionCHF equityportfoliowouldbe3,000,000CHF/0.244411398=12,274,386.65ZAR.
•TocalculatetheannualizedpremiumordiscountoftheZARagainsttheCHFrequires comparisonofthespotsellingexchangeratetotheforwardsellingpriceofCHFfor ZAR.
Spotrate=1.5343CHF/6.2681ZAR=0.244779120
30dayforwardaskrate1.5285CHF/6.2538ZAR=0.244411398
Thepremium/discountformulais:
[(forwardrate–spotrate)/spotrate]x(360/#daycontract)=
[(0.244411398–0.24477912)/0.24477912]x(360/30)=
-1.8027126%=-1.80%discountZARtoCHF
MINICASE:SHREWSBURYHERBALPRODUCTS,LTD.
ShrewsburyHerbalProducts,locatedincentralEnglandclosetotheWelshborder,isanold-lineproducerofherbalteas,seasonings,andmedicines.ItsproductsaremarketedallovertheUnitedKingdomandinmanypartsofcontinentalEuropeaswell.
ShrewsburyHerbalgenerallyinvoicesinBritishpoundsterlingwhenitsellstoforeigncustomersinordertoguardagainstadverseexchangeratechanges.Nevertheless,ithasjustreceivedanorderfromalargewholesalerincentralFrancefor£320,000ofitsproducts,conditionalupondeliverybeingmadeinthreemonths’timeandtheorderinvoicedineuros.
Shrewsbury’scontroller,EltonPeters,isconcernedwithwhetherthepoundwillappreciateversustheeurooverthenextthreemonths,thuseliminatingallormostoftheprofitwhentheeuroreceivableispaid.Hethinksthisisanunlikelypossibility,buthedecidestocontactthefirm’sbankerforsuggestionsabouthedgingtheexchangerateexposure.
Mr.Peterslearnsfromthebankerthatthecurrentspotexchangerateis€/£is€1.4537,thustheinvoiceamountshouldbe€465,184.Mr.Petersalsolearnsthatthethree-monthforwardratesforthepoundandtheeuroversustheU.S.dollarare$1.8990/£1.00and$1.3154/€1.00,respectively.Thebankerofferstosetupaforwardhedgeforsellingtheeuroreceivableforpoundsterlingbasedonthe€/£forwardcross-exchangerateimplicitintheforwardratesagainstthedollar.
WhatwouldyoudoifyouwereMr.Peters?
SuggestedSolutiontoShrewsburyHerbalProducts,Ltd.
NotetoInstructor:Thiselementarycaseprovidesanintuitivelookathedgingexchangerateexposure.StudentsshouldnothavedifficultywithiteventhoughhedgingwillnotbeformallydiscusseduntilChapter8.ThecaseisconsistentwiththediscussionthataccompaniesExhibit5.9ofthetext.ProfessorofFinance,BanikantaMishra,ofXavierInstituteofManagement–Bhubaneswar,Indiacontributedtothissolution.
SupposeShrewsburysellsatatwentypercent
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