SAT真题汇编：201603北美及答案

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Questions1-10arebasedonthefollowingpassage.

ThispassageisadaptedfromMichaelChabon,TheAmazingAdventuresofKavalier&Clay.©2000byMichaelChabon.

RoseSaxon,theQueenofRomanceComics,wasatherdrawingboardinthegarageofherhouseinBloomtown,NewYork.

MissSaxonwasatworkonthetextofanewstory,

Tommyhadstartedkindergarten,andRosawas

30justbeginningtounderstandthetruehorrorofherdestiny,thearrantpurposelessnessofherlifewheneverhersonwasnotaround,onedaywhenSammycamehomeatlunch,harriedandfrantic,withanarmloadofBristolboard,abottleofHiggins

35ink,andabunchof3brushes,andbeggedRosatohelphimbydoingwhatshecould.Shehadstayedupallnightwiththepages—itwassomedreadfulGoldStarsuperherostrip,TheHumanGrenadeorThe

5whichsheintendedtobeginlayingoutthatnightafterhersonwenttobed.ItwouldbetheleadstoryfortheJuneissueofKissComics.Sheplannedtocallit“TheBombDestroyedMyMarriage.”Thestorywouldbebasedonanarticlethatshehadreadin

10Redbookaboutthehumorousdifficultiesofbeingmarriedtoanuclearphysicistemployedbythegovernmentatatop-secretfacilityinthemiddleoftheNewMexicodesert.Shewasnotwritingsomuchasplanningoutherpanels,onebyone,atthe

15typewriter.Overtheyears,Sammy’sscriptshadgrownnolessdetailedbutlooser;heneverbotheredwithtellinganartistwhattodraw.Rosacouldn’t

40PhantomStallion—andhadthejobfinishedbythetimeSammyleftforworkthenextmorning.ThereignoftheQueenhadcommenced.

RoseSaxonhademergedslowly,lendingherink

45brushatfirstonlynowandthen,unsignedanduncredited,toastoryoracoverthatshewouldspreadoutonthedinettetableinthekitchen.Rosahadalwayshadasteadyhand,astrongline,a

50goodsenseofshadow.Itwasworkdoneinakindofunreflectivecrisismode—wheneverSammywasinajamorshorthanded—butafterawhile,sherealizedthatshehadbeguntocraveintenselythedayswhenSammyhadsomethingforhertodo.

operatethatway;shehatedworkingfromSammy’s

scripts.Sheneededtohaveeverythingfiguredoutin

20advance—storyboarded,theycalleditinHollywood—shotbyshot,asitwere.

Rosahadgottenherstartincomicssoonafter

55 Thenonenight,astheylayinbed,talkinginthe

dark,SammytoldherthatherbrushworkalreadyfarexceededthatofthebestpeoplehecouldaffordtohireatlowlyGoldStar.Heaskedherifshehadevergivenanythoughttopenciling;tolayouts;toactually

Unauthorizedcopyingorreuseofanypartofthispageisillegal.

Ifyouseethisline,youarenotansweringthequestions.(＾▽＾) 2

Sammy’sreturntothebusiness,afterthewar.Upontakingovertheeditor’sdeskatGoldStar.Sammy’s

25firstmovehadbeentoclearoutmanyofthesubcompetentswholitteredthestaffthere.Itwasaboldandnecessarystep,butitlefthimwithanacuteshortageofartists,inparticularofinkers.

60writinganddrawingcomicbookstories.HeexplainedtoherthatSimonandKirbywerejustthenhavingconsiderablesuccesswithanewkindoffeaturethey’dcookedup,basedpartlyonteenfeatureslikeArchieandADatewithJudyandpartly

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ontheoldtrue-romancepulps(thelastoftheoldpulpgenrestobeexhumedandgivennewlifeinthecomics).ItwascalledYoungRomance.Itwasaimedatwomen,andthestoriesittoldwerecenteredonwomen.Womenhadbeenneglecteduntilnowasreadersofcomicbooks;itseemedtoSammythattheymightenjoyonethathadactuallybeenwrittenanddrawnbyoneoftheirown.RosahadacceptedSammy’sproposalatonce,withaflushofgratitudewhosepowerwasundiminishedevennow.

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Asusedinline16,”Iooser"mostnearlymeans

Asusedinline16,“looser”mostnearlymeans

Roomier

Moreinformal

Morecareless

Weaker

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Ifyouseethisline,followmeatWetchat:satxbs 3

Whichchoicebestsummarizesthepassage?

Asuccessfulartistthinksbackonthebeginningofhercareer.

Acomicbookgearedtowardwomenbecomesapopularbestseller.

Anownerofacomicbookcompanydevelopsanewkindofcomicbook.

Awomanhelpsherhusbandbuildasuccessfulcomicbookcompany.

Theauthorincludestheinformationinthefirstparagraphmostlikelyto

revealspecificinformationaboutRosa’sconflictlaterinthepassage.

provideabriefintroductiontothewomen’scomicbookindustry.

revealkeydetailsaboutthemaincharacterandsettingofthepassage.

provideaflashbacktoRosa’slifebeforeshebecameawifeandmother.

ThemainpurposeofincludingtheinformationaboutSammytakingoverastheeditoratGoldStaristo

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providecontextforthereasonRosastartedworkingforSammy.

explainwhymanypeoplestoppedpurchasingGoldStarcomics.

revealhowSammywassosuccessfulinhiscareeratsuchayoungage.

illustrateRosa’sgratitudeforajobopportunityatGoldStar.

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Accordingtothepassage,whywasSammysodesperateforRosatohelphim?

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Hehadnoartistswithcomicbookexperience.

Hewasnotconfidentthathewouldbeabletodotheworkhimself.

HehadashortageofartistsatGoldStarafterfiringmanymembersofthestaff.

HefeltitwouldbebeneficialforRosatospendtimeworkingonaproject.

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Ifyouseethisline,youarenotansweringthequestions.(＾▽＾) 4

Basedonthepassage,helpingSammyinkcomicswasespeciallyimportanttoRosabecauseshe

hadapassionforcomicbooks.

wasfeelinganemptinessinherlife.

likedtosupportherhusband’sgoals.

wantedtofindaninterestinghobby.

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Whichchoiceprovidesthebestevidencefortheanswertothepreviousquestion?

Lines8-13(“Thestory...desert”)

Lines29-36(“Tommy...could”)

Lines55-57(“Heasked...stories”)

Line64(“Itwascalled...Romance”)

Line67(“Itwascalled…Romance”)

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Theauthorusestheterm“Queen”inlines1and41mostlikelyto

stresshowsuccessfulRosahasbecomeatcreatingcomicbooks.

describeanewcharacterthatSammyisdevelopingatGoldStar.

showhowRosaviewsthewomenwhoreadhercomics.

explainwhyRosausesadifferentnamewhileworkingforGoldStar.

WithwhichideaaboutcomicbookswouldRosamostlikelyagree?

Drawingforcomicbooksisharderthandrawingforotherartforms.

Masteringcomicbooksketchingtakesyearsofformaltraining.

Developingcomicbooksrequiresarangeofskills.

Creatingcomicbooksiseasiestwhenthereisnottoomuchstructure.

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WhichchoicebestsupportstheideathatRosaisthrilledtobewritinganddrawingherowncomics?

Lines13-15(“Shewas...typewriter”)

36-39

Lines36-40(“Shehad...Stallion”)

47-51

Lines50-54(“Itwas...todo”)

D) 72-74

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Unauthorizedcopyingorreuseofanypartofthispageisillegal.

Ifyouseethisline,followmeatWetchat:satxbs 5

Questions11-21arebasedonthefollowingpassage.

Passage1isadaptedfromCesarChavez,“LetterfromDelano,”alettersenttoE.L.BarrJr.in1969.Passage2isfromMarkDay,FortyAcres:CesarChavezandtheFarmWorkers.©1971byPraegerPublishers,Inc.CesarChavezcofoundedtheNationalFarmWorkersAssociation.

E.L.BarrJr.wasthepresidentoftheCaliforniaGrapeandTreeFruitLeague.FortyAcresisahistoricalaccountwrittenbyamemberofChavez’smovement.

Passage1

Youmustunderstand-Imustmakeyouunderstand—thatourmembershipandthehopesandaspirationsofthehundredsofthousandsofthe

Linepooranddispossessedthathavebeenraisedonour

5accountare,aboveall,humanbeings,nobetterandnoworsethananyothercross-sectionofhumansociety;wearenotsaintsbecausewearepoor,butbythesamemeasureneitherareweimmoral.Wearemenandwomenwhohavesufferedandendured

10much,andnotonlybecauseofourabjectpovertybutbecausewehavebeenkeptpoor.Thecolorsofourskins,thelanguagesofourculturalandnative

origins,thelackofformaleducation,theexclusionfromthedemocraticprocess,thenumbersofour

15menslaininrecentwars—alltheseburdensgenerationaftergenerationhavesoughttodemoralizeus,tobreakourhumanspirit.ButGodknowsthatwearenotbeastsofburden,agriculturalimplements,orrentedslaves:wearemen.Andmark

20thiswell,Mr.Barr,wearemenlockedinadeathstruggleagainstman’sinhumanitytomanintheindustrythatyourepresent.Andthisstruggleitselfgivesmeaningtoourlifeandennoblesourdying.

Asyourindustryhasexperienced,ourstrikers

25hereinDelanoandthosewhorepresentusthroughouttheworldarewelltrainedforthis

struggle.Theyhavebeenunderthegun,theyhavebeenkickedandbeatenandherdedbydogs,they

havebeencursedandridiculed,theyhavebeen

30strippedandchainedandjailed,theyhavebeensprayedwiththepoisonsusedinthevineyards;buttheyhavebeentaughtnottoliedownanddienorto

fleeinshame,buttoresistwitheveryounceofhumanenduranceandspirit.Toresistnotwith

35retaliationinkindbuttoovercomewithloveandcompassion,withingenuityandcreativity,withhardworkandlongerhours,withstaminaandpatienttenacity,withtruthandpublicappeal,withfriendsandallies,withnobilityanddiscipline,withpolitics

40andlaw,andwithprayerandfasting.

Thisisnottopretendthatwehaveeverywherebeensuccessfulenoughorthatwehavenotmademistakes.

Andwhilewedonotbelittleorunderestimateouradversariestheyarethe

45richandthepowerfulandtheypossesstheland-wearenotafraidnordowecringefromtheconfrontation.Wewelcomeit!Wehaveplannedforit!Weknowthatourcauseisjust,thathistoryisastoryofsocialrevolution,andthatthepoorshall

50inherittheland.

Passage2

Intheearlyspringof1970,theleavesbeganappearingonthegrapevinesaroundDelano.Anendlesscyclerepeateditself;birth,fruition,thenthedeadandcoldofwinter.Untilrecently,farmworkers

55blendedinwiththisscenarioalmostunnoticeably.Peopletooktheirpoverty,theirhunger,andtheirdreary,hopelessexistenceforgranted.

ButinSeptember1965,acryforjusticewentforthfromDelano.Itwasacryofoutrageandacry

60ofhope.Thepicketlinesandthecrowdedstrikers’meetings,theexcitementintheair,spelledoutacommonlonging:justbecausethingswerebadlastyear,andtheyearbefore,andtheyearsbefore

that-theydidnothavetobethesamethisyear,orinthe

65yearstocome.

TheDelanostrikersbeganalong,uphillfightin1965.Theybegantochipawayattheoldfoundationoftheruralfarmeconomyinordertobuildanewlifeforthemselvesandtheirfamilies.

70Itwasanalmostimpossibletask.Theywithdrewtheirlaborfromthevineyardsandwerereplacedbyforeignlabor.Theysetuptheirpicketlinesandhadthemweakenedbypowerfulinjunction.

Theypledgedthemselvestononviolenceandhadto

75faceviolenceandhatredfromthegroweragentsandtheinstitutionalizedviolenceofcorruptcourts,brutalpolicemen,andself-seekingpoliticians.

But,inspiteofanendlessstreamoffrustratingobstacles,victorieshavebeenwonanddespairhas

80givenwaytohope.Farmworkersunionizedseveralranchesandhaveshouted“no”tothepaternalismandexploitationoftheirbosses.Theynowhaveimprovedwagesandworkingconditions.Theyhavedevelopedinspiringleadershipamongthemselveson

85theirranches.Theyhavelearnedthemachineryofunionism:grievanceprocedures,negotiations,andthenewsenseofdignityandpowereverymanneedsinordertofacethefuture.

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WhichchoicefromPassage1bestsupportstheconclusionthattheDelanostrikershavenotresortedtoviolence?

Lines17-19("ButGod...slaves")

Line27-31("Theyhavebeenunder...vineyards")

Lines34-36("Topassion")

Lines47-48("Wewelcome...forit”)

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ItcanreasonablybeinferredthattheauthorofPassage1viewstheDelanostrikeas

alastresortthatisnecessarybecausepreviousattemptstoachieveequalityhavefailed.

anoutwardexpressionofthehighmoralintegrityofsufferingworkers.

anhonorableundertakingwithconnectionstosimilarstrugglesofthepast.

anintimidatingbutultimatelynecessaryresponsetochangingconditions.

ThemainpurposeofthelastparagraphofPassage1isto

acknowledgesshortcomingsyetexpressafirmconvictionaboutthestrike.

Establishthecredibilityofthegroupthatisoverseeingthestrike.

Reiteratetheclaimthatthestrikersarenodifferentfromotherindividualsinsociety.

Recognizeanargumentmadebycriticsofthestrikeandpresentexamplestorefuteit.

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AccordingtotheauthorofPassage1,theactoffightingagainstmistreatmentgivesthestrikersandtheirsupportersasenseof

dignity

authority

contentment

hopelessness

Asusedinline62,”common”mostnearlymeans

routine

shared

standard

casual

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TheauthorofPassage2suggeststhattheDelanostrikewasprimarilydrivenbyadesireto

undermineestablishedpracticesthatweredetrimentaltothefarmworkers.

ensurethatevenlaborerswithoutformaltrainingwouldreceivesufficientwages.

putanendtotheinfluenceofcorruptgovernmentofficialsonfarmingprograms.

bringattentiontotheharshenvironmentalconditionsofvineyardsinthearea.

Whichofthefollowingstatementsbestdescribestherelationshipbetweenthepassages?

Passage1discussesingeneraltermsastrugglethatisdescribedindetailinPassage2.

Passage1detailstheoutcomeofaconflictthatisintroducedinPassage2.

Passage2offersbackgroundinformationabouttheauthorofPassage1.

Passage2providesmorecontextforthesituationthatisfocusofPassage1.

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Ifyouseethisline,followmeatWetchat:satxbs 7

Whichchoiceprovidesthebestevidencefortheanswertothepreviousquestion?

Lines56-57(“People...granted”)

Lines67-69(“Theybegan...families”)

Lines74-77(“Theypledged...politicians”)

Lines85-88(“Theyhave...future”)

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Asusedinline68,“foundation”mostnearlymeans

association.

underpinning.

justification.

genesis.

Whichpointabouttheexperiencesoffarmworkersismadeinbothpassages?

Workershavereliedonpicketingasameanstoadvancetheircause.

Workershavebeenheldbackanddiscouragedbypersistentcircumstances.

Workershavebeenreplacedbyworkersfromotherindustriesduringthestrike.

Workershaveidentifiedthemselvesasinstrumentsessentialtoagriculture.

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TheworkersdescribedinthefirstparagraphofPassage2aremostlikelymembersofwhichgroupreferredtoinPassage1?

The“dispossessed"(line4)

The"saints"(line7)

The“adversaries"(line44)

The“rich”(line45)

Unauthorizedcopyingorreuseofanypartofthispageisillegal.

Ifyouseethisline,youarenotansweringthequestions.(＾▽＾) 8

Questions22-32arebasedonthefollowingpassage.

ThispassageisadaptedfromRobertMartinHowWeDok.

©2013byRobertMartin

Rapidbraingrowthduringthefirstyearoflifeisconnectedwithanunusualfeatureofnewbornhumaninfants:theirstrikingplumpness.Inan

Lineaveragehumannewbornweighingsomesevenanda

5halfpounds,fattissueaccountsforoverapound,around14percentofbodyweight.Ourbabiesareamongtheplumpestfoundamongmammals.Humanbabiesatbirthlookmarkedlydifferentfromthescrawnynewbornsofotherprimates,suchas

10chimpanzeesandrhesusmonkeys.Theproportionoffattissueinanewbornhumanmatchesthatinmammalslivingunderarcticconditionsandactuallyexceedsthelevelfoundinbabyseals.AsanthropologistChristopherKuzawahasshown,a

15newbornhumanhasaboutfourtimesasmuchfatasexpectedforastandardnewbornmammalofthesamebodysize.Infact,theproportionofbodyfatin

ahumanbabyincreasesfurtheroverthefirstninemonthsafterbirth,buildinguptoaboutaquarterof

20bodyweight.Duringthatperiod,around70percentoftheenergyallocatedtogrowthisusedtodepositfat.Inshort,healthybabiesdonotlosetheirbabyfatafterbirthbutconsolidateitandmaintainitforuptothreeyears.Amother’sinvestmentinbuildingup

25herinfant’sfatreservescontinueslongafterbirth,largelythankstonursing.

Astandardexplanationforourplumpbabieshasbeenthatnaturalselectionfavoredanincreaseinbodyfattooffsetthelossofinsulatingbodyhair.

30Itisknownthattheoptimaltemperatureforahumaninfantkeptinanincubatorisabout90°F,socoolingcouldbeaproblem.Babyfatisdistinctivelydistributed,beingmainlylocatedjustbeneaththeskin.Incontrasttoadultfatstores,

35thereisrelativelylittlefatinthebellycavity.

AnthropologistBoguslawPawlowskisupportedthisview,arguingthatvariousfeaturesofthehumannewbornevolvedinearlyhumanstocounterexcessivecoolingduringnightsspentsleepingin

40opensavannah.Thosefeaturesincluderelativelylargesizeaswellasagreaterproportionofsubcutaneousfat.

However,Kuzawa’sstudiesyieldedonlyweakevidencefortheroleofsubcutaneousfat

45proposedbyPawlowski.Kuzawawentontoexploreamorelikelyexplanationforourexceptionally

plumpbabies:increasedfatreservesasacrucialenergybuffer.Thiswouldbeparticularlyadvantageousduringtheperiodofrapidbrain

50growthinthefirstyearoflife.Itcouldoffsetanydisruptionintheflowofresourcestothegrowinginfant.Goingastepfurther,a2003paperbytwonutritionists,StephenCunnaneandMichaelCrawford,arguedthatplumpbabiesarethekeyto

55theevolutionofthelargehumanbrain,andnotonlybecauseofenergysupply.Abouthalfthebrainconsistsoffat,andababy’sfatreservescontainspecialfats—long-chainpolyunsaturatedfattyacids(LCPUFAs)—thatareessentialfornormalbrain

60development.CalculationsindicatethatLCPUFAspresentinbabyfatatbirthshouldbeenoughtofuelthreemonthsofbraingrowth.Depositionoffatinthehumanfetustakesplaceonlyduringthelastthirdofpregnancy;almostnofatispresentduringthefirst

65sixmonths.Asaresult,fatreservesarewellbelownormalinprematurebabies.Ababybornfiveweeksearlyhasonlyhalftheusualamountoffat,andababyborntenweeksearlyhaslessthanasixth.

Insufficientfatdepositsmeanthatpreemiesarenot

70wellbufferedfortherapidbraingrowththattakesplaceafterbirth.Althoughnormalbraingrowthcanneverthelessoccurgivenadequatenutrition,itisvitaltorecognizedthespecialneedsofprematurebabies.Cunnaneaptlydescribesstoredfatinthenewborn

75humanas"insurance."

PercentageofBodyWeightComposedofFatinHumans

male

female

Fatpercentageofbodyweight

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25

20

15

10

5

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Age(months)

AdaptedfromChristopherKuzawa,“AdiposeTissueinHumanInfancyandChildhood.”©1998byWiley-Liss,Inc.

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Themainpurposeofthepassageisto

providedatatochallengeahypothesisabouthumangrowth.

evaluatethevalidityofresearchfindingsregardingearlybraindevelopment.

examineresearchcomparingtraitsofhumannewbornstotraitsofothernewbornmammals.

explorenewhypothesesabouttheimportanceoffatinhumaninfants.

Asusedinline40,“open”mostnearlymeans

porous.

accessible.

uncovered.

vacant.

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Acentralideaofthepassageisthat

reservesofspecialfatsinhumannewbornsandinfantshelpfueltheirbraindevelopment.

theamountoffatreservesinahumannewbornislargelydeterminedbythenewborn’senvironment.

theproportionofbodyfatinahumaninfantrisestosurprisinglevelsduringthefirsttwoyearsoflife.

differencesinfattyacidlevelsexplaindifferencesbetweenthebraingrowthrateofhumanadultsandthatofhumaninfants.

TheauthorsuggeststhatKuzawarejectedPawlowski’shypothesisabouthumanbabyfatbecauseKuzawa

believedthatPawlowskihadnotstudiedalargeenoughnumberofsubjects.

determinedthatPawlowskihadmisrepresenteddata.

consideredthedataonwhichPawlowskibasedhishypothesisoutdated.

foundinsufficientsupportforPawlowski’sconclusion.

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Unauthorizedcopyingorreuseofanypartofthispageisillegal.

Ifyouseethisline,followmeatWetchat:satxbs 9

Asusedinline27,“standard”mostnearlymeans

definitive.

accepted.

uniform.

technical.

Whichchoiceprovidesthebestevidencefortheanswertothepreviousquestion?

Lines36-40(“Anthropologist...savannah”)

Lines43-45(“However...Pawlowski”)

Lines45-48(“Kuzawa...buffer”)

Lines74-75(“Cunnane...insurance”)

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ThedescriptionofCunnaneandCrawford’sworkservesmainlyto

suggestthatearlierhypothesesaboutfatreservesareincomplete.

furthersupportKuzawa’shypothesisabouttheeffectoffatreservesonbraingrowth.

raiseadditionalquestionsaboutthefunctionoffattyacidsfoundinbabies.

reconcileconflictingtheoriesabouttheroleoffatreservesinprematurenewborns.

Accordingtothefigure,thedifferencesinthefatpercentageofbodyweightbetweenmalesandfemalesare

smallerafteranincreaseinfemales’growthratearound10monthsofage.

exactlythesameduringtheperiodfrombirthto60months.

initiallyveryslightbutbecomegreaterafterabout5monthsofage.

consistentwithbodylengthdifferencesbetweenmalesandfemalesuptoage60months.

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Whichchoicebestsupportstheconclusionthatthepercentageoffatinahumanfetus’sbrainincreasesbetween6and9months’gestation?

Lines52-56(“Going...supply”)

Lines56-60(“About...development”)

Lines60-62(“Calculations...growth”)

Lines62-65(“Deposition...months”)

Accordingtothedatainthefigure,thefatpercentageofbodyweightinhumanfemalesislessatage20monthsthanatage

10months.

30months.

40months.

60months.

Unauthorizedcopyingorreuseofanypartofthispageisillegal.

Ifyouseethisline,youarenotansweringthequestions.(＾▽＾) 10

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Thefigureindicatesthatthefatpercentageofbodyweightin60-month-oldmalesismostsimilartothefatpercentageofbodyweightthathumanspossessatage

0months.

10months.

20months.

40months.

Unauthorizedcopyingorreuseofanypartofthispageisillegal.

Ifyouseethisline,followmeatWetchat:satxbs 11

Questions33-42arebasedonthefollowingpassageandsupplementarymaterial.

AdaptedfromNealJ.RoeseandKathleenD.Vohs,“HindsightBias”2012byNeau.RoeseandKathleenD.Vons

Hindsightbiasisdefinedasthebeliefthataneventismorepredictableafteritbecomesknownthanitwasbeforeitbecameknown.Forexample,

Lineavotermightbelievethatafteracceptingthe

5DemocraticnominationforpresidentinAugust2008,BarackObama’schancesofwinningtheU.S.presidencywereabout60%.AfterObama’svictoryinNovember2008,thissamevotermightlookback,seethevictoryasmorepredictablethanitwasbeforethe

10outcomewasknown,andconcludethatObama’schanceswereatleast80%atthetimeoftheconvention.Sometimestermedthe“Knewitallalongeffect,”hindsightbiasinvolvestheinabilitytorecapturethefeelingofuncertaintythatprecededan

15event.Whenthereisaneedtounderstandpasteventsastheywereexperiencedatthetime,hindsightbiasthwartssoundappraisal.

Hindsightbiashasimportantconsequencesforthelegalsystem,particularlywithrespectto

20negligence,productliability,andmedicalmalpractice.Inlegalapplications,thedangerofhindsightbiasisclear,inthatlawofmany

nationsstatesthatadefendantmayonlybejudgedonthebasisofwhatheorshecouldreasonablyhave

25knownatthetimeofaction.Knowledgethatisgatheredlater,suchasfromaccidentsceneinvestigations,forensictests,orthearbitrarydiscoveryofanoddlymisusedproduct,isdeemedirrelevantinevaluatingthequalityofthedecisions

30madeinthemoment,thatis,beforeafocalmishapoccurred.Asempiricalstudieshaveshown,however,hindsightbiasroutinelyafflictsjudgmentsofadefendant’spastconduct.

Therealityofhindsightbiasissometimesdifficult

35toconveytoseasoneddecisionmakersbecausehindsightbiascanbeconfusedwithsimplelearningfromexperience.Individualandorganizationsinnovate,thrive,andprosperwhentheyanalyzemistakesandadjusttheirstrategiesaccordingly.

40Thisinterpretationfollowsalongthelinesof“onlyfoolswouldn’tknowmoreafterlearninganoutcomethanbeforeitoccurred.”When,then,isknowledgebornofhindsightabenefittobeembraced,andwhenisitabiastobeavoided?Theanswerisinthe

45timingofmakingaconclusion.Knowledgebornofhindsightisappropriateandusefulwhendirectedatcurrentactionsandfutureplans,inwhichitinformsongoingstrategy.Bycontrast,knowledgebornofhindsightmayinvolveerrorwhendirectedatpast

50momentsintime,asinevaluatingtheskillofdecisionmakerswhohadnocrystalballandsocouldnotpossiblyhaveknownwhatisknownnow.

Twomainexperimentalstrategiesdocumenthindsightbias:awithin-subjectmemorydesignanda

55between-subjecthypotheticaldesign.Inthememorydesign,eachparticipantgivestwojudgments,onebeforeandoneafterafocaloutcome.Forexample,beforeafootballgame,afanmightestimatethelikelihoodthatthehometeamwillwin.Aftera

60factualoutcomeisestablished(thehometeamdidinfactwin),thefanestimatesthelikelihoodofvictoryasitwasbeforethegamewasplayed(whichmayinvolveattemptingtoretrieveone'searlierestimatefrommemory).Hindsightbiasisdefinedasthe

65differencebetweentheforesightandhindsightlikelihoodestimates.

Thehypotheticaldesigninvolvesindependentexperimentalgroupsthateitherreceiveordonotreceiveoutcomeinformation.Returningtothe

70footballgameexample,bothgroupswouldwatch

thegame,butonlyonegroupwouldseetheendingandlearnthatthehometeamhadwon(outcome

conditionvs.no-outcomecondition).Thenparticipantsintheno-outcomeconditionestimate

75thelikelihoodofahometeamvictory,whereasparticipantsintheoutcomeconditionareinstructedtodisregardtheirknowledgeofhowthegameturnedoutandthenmakethissamelikelihoodjudgment