2022年成都商业与物流地产分析报告

2022202320222022……2022……IFS……2023202320232022202301020304050516611241733

|

©2023

仲量联行.110121212120102030405060708091056602023·203036210.760255.550%100%47SKP81.6SKP15.11,3002223912991512-180Top1019720224

|

©20235

|

©2023.70060050040030020010000.00.51.01.547.15

7.25

8.25911122019302.2383.01.2672020518.5331.1493.6427.50.6382021518.50.9522022518.50.825400.00.0200.0600.02023120226

|

©2023+5.3%+9.1%+2.9%8,186.7-2.1%6,880.11,306.6-0.3%-10.7%+3.1%+7.0%-2.7%+4.6%GDP

14,929.71.5%2,093.820222021GDP7,681.6+3.8%4,586.93,094.7+6.0%+0.7%2023120227

|

©2023GDPGDP14%12%10%8%16%14%12%10%8%2023

GDP5.5%5.2%6%*6%4.7%4%4%3.1%2022GDP3.0%1.5%2%2%0%0%2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

20232011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20222022

20232023120228

|

©20232019100040%30%20%10%0%8006004002000-10%-20%-30%-40%-2023120229

|

©202340%30%20%10%0%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-10%20231202210

|

©202325%20%15%10%5%40%30%20%10%0%0%-10%2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20221-112017201820192020202120221-1120231202211

|

©202310,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120221-1120231202212

|

©20232022GDP10.7%5.3%112.1%3.1%0.3%112.7%4.8%9.1%2.9%3.8%0.7%6.0%2023202313

|

©20232022“457

64959.7

26.810.4

18.31,124

27190.3

38.135.6

25.961644.151.410.6%28.0%

23.7%

12.4%

9.8%100.2

68.6395.2

774.8

21.220231202215

|

©202316

|

©2023.“2012520182020202220222.020232022202217

|

©20232022457.0

649.359.7

26.810.4

18.31,106.386.528.325.5%+3.528.0%23.7%+8.2+0.3100.2

68.6//81.8-1.6%-1.8-1.420231202218

|

©20232022GDP202205,00010,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000Top3*Top1Top5Top2Top42022GDP202202004006008001,000

1,200

1,400

1,60020231202220

|

©2023202220222022-40.2%-65.2%22.4%10.0%-81.2%-76.2%-57.0%-64.9%23.0%27.3%24.7%-47.1%55.2%-67.0%41.4%202210.457.0%28.1%-87.0%-71.9%-60.2%-92.4%-106.4%-112.3%-106.3%-240.4%27.5%35.6%20.5%17.6%2021202221.0%21.6%17.6%23.1%-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10011012013014015016020231202221

|

©20231009080706050403020100100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%202228.0%20.9%+8.2+1.02014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20222005

-

20112012

-

20172018

-

202220231202222

|

©2023353025201510535%30%25%20%15%10%5%28.0%12.512.52.02.000%-528.0%1.61234123412341234201920202021202220231202223

|

©2023100908070605040302010050%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20222005

-

20112012

-

20172018

-

202220231202224

|

©2023201510540%30%20%10%0%23.70%1,0000.1023.7%-51234123412341234201920202021202220231202225

|

©2023“2022202210.450%202257.0%202020%13.9%250%202213.5%801.0202211.818.31,00026

|

©202330-5.5-A2.19.22.328.912.7NIC620225010.72.1403020105.47.60C20231202227

|

©2023“2022201725.4%161059.7400457.028

|

©202327%1,605,90027.4%+4.6+19.9-4.2336,80022.8%+3.91,150,00027.0%955,10019.5%+1.7316,30044.6%20231202229

|

©2023564,60022.8%771,50029.1%+0.8+1.7+0.1-0.1+5.5-9.6332,40014.0%814,00030.5%504,20021.2%1,852,60023.0%+0.5+12.91,423,20017.4%184,00056.2%20231202230

|

©2023202248.1%402022115.027.0%19.912.9

5.59.6202231

|

©20231.5010204062022202203050%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%20231202233

|

©20232021-20222022100%0102030490%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%13.0%15.0%19.0%16.3%20.8%22.4%202123.5%202220231202234

|

©20232022202140.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%35.1%24.1%30.0%36.0%30.5%26.6%37.3%20.7%43.2%21.4%17.8%15.1%10.1%10.5%7.2%10.2%4.1%79.5%1.8%9.8%7.8%0.0%IT20231202235

|

©2023202220217.4%2.52.01.51.00.50.0174.4%9.5%36.1%47.1%31.4%177.6%12.2%76.7%321.1%73.9%/17.0%15.8%IPO20231202236

|

©202355.3%10.6%713.4%41.9%7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000034.2%62.6%202241.9%74.0%26.0%2021202220231202237

|

©20232022Top5202243.4%48.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%5.5%20231202238

|

©2023“202220.8%23.5%15.0%▪IT25%▪IT39

|

©2023““1,834.88.4%19.1%1.532.5%177.6%355.3%62.6%20229.0%18.7%202230.2%34.4%40

|

©2023100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%202253.4%37.9%8.7%202157.0%37.9%5.1%4.9%4.1%14.5%40.7%15.3%37.7%31.2%57.7%63.9%2022202151.8%25.9%15.9%6.4%4.8%47.0%44.8%38.1%44.4%28.1%22.7%20231202241

|

©20232,000202217.55.3%2021(2,00068.6%13.6%19.4%12.4%2022(2,00041.1%24.2%15.3%11.3%46.6%2022(71.1%11.6%

8.6%

8.7%19.1%23.1%20231202242

|

©20235002022100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1.8%3.9%87.2%3003.961.0%84.2%%71.6≥2,0001,500-2,0001,000-1,500500-1,000400-500300-400<30061.0%202257.1%202176.3%%≥50082.6<50020231202243

|

©202370.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%36.6%35.5%33.9%33.7%23.5%23.2%23.0%22.0%19.4%17.2%16.5%15.1%13.4%11.7%202220212%2023

1202245

|

©20231,00054.7%36.8%61.9%17.3%8.6%81.9%40%30%20%10%0%18.1%63.9%36.1%30.4%28.9%28.4%24.3%11.4%9.4%20231202246

|

©2023“2022801231,000202261.9%30%35.5%

33.9%33.7%47

|

©20232%202220225%-0.5%-0.4%-1.2%

-0.6%-3.4%-1.6%0%-1.8%-2.8%-2.9%-4.1%-1.4%-4.9%-5.2%-1.7%-2.0%-5%-10%-5.5%-4.9%-6.0%-6.5%-6.7%4003002001000336248199162141124118104

10098

9592

90

90

8982

7977

76(195

-336)68(130

-194)(92

-129)(77

-91)20231202249

|

©20231.1/202212010080604020064.162.5//-3.5%-1.2%97.185.8103.2-2.7%92.1-3.0%-2.4%-2.8%99.276.498.178.80.5%0.2%-2.1%-2.5%104.90.0%84.976.473.41

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4-0.4%-5.8%-7.5%2014201520162017201820192020202120222022Q1-0.3%2022Q2-0.5%2022Q32022Q4-0.3%-0.3%-0.7%-0.9%100.6-1.8%69.1-0.1%-0.2%-1.4%20231202250

|

©2023“1100.2

/5-6/1.8%0.5%20210.5%

0.7%1.1202010-11C20222.7%

3.0%250%1202051

|

©2023“341234202052

|

©202353

|

©20231009080706050403020100100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2023-20262023

1202254

|

©2023357060504030201007060504030201002023202420252026202320242025202620231202255

|

©2023100.0%90.0%80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%430.6%29.2%19.5%25.4%49.9%45.4%2023202420252026202320242025202620231202256

|

©2023100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%35.3%8.0%37.8%43.3%49.7%60.7%67.5%12.8%24.1%5.2%17.4%17.7%36.4%35.6%15.8%3.6%8.7%3.3%25.3%19.9%20.5%20.2%15.2%201015.9%2010-20142015-20192020-20222023-20262023-202620231202257

|

©202362.8202234.22023“73.7%50%202640%58

|

©2023140130120110100908020231202259

|

©2023“2023

1

8202357.860

|

©202361

|

©2023.“20221-118,186.72.1%IFSSKP20212,119.2202024.51-10THE

HALL5222022Maison

Margiela

Café2023SKP62

|

©2023.2022271.1

1,123.638.1

90.325.9

35.69.8%12.4%+0.4%+3.5%774.8

395.2-0.8%-2.7%20231202264

|

©2023.1401301201101009065%60%55%50%45%40%8020231202265

|

©2023.2022

1-112022

1-1114,97012,73212,704-0.5%-6.3%9,4978,8418,2418,187-2.4%-4.3%-2.9%2.2%10.7%-7.1%7,1016,6366,1080.6%-2.1%0.9%-9.1%4,7804,7782.6%-0.1%-0.4%4,4553.9%3,0253,0185.3%1.9%-0.3%5.7%2,488-9.1%10.7%2.3%02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,00020231202266

|

©2023.“20221139.93.80.1%5.9%

1-111-119.1%1-1167

|

©2023.20222022-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%19.6%8.8%15.0%13.4%8.4%9.2%11.9%4.1%12.3%12.4%14.0%12.3%10.4%16.0%10.4%亿元20223.9%17.7%20227.0%7.4%14.5%20223.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%20231202268

|

©2023.20223%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-2.8%2001,50020231202269

|

©2023.“20221-1159338%2.8%70

|

©2023.1,1242022Top2Top1Top

305001,0001,5002,00020231202271

|

©2023.“20227802021202329%202190120SKP72

|

©2023.46.11601401201008016%14%12%10%8%606%404%202%00%2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20222005

-

20112012

-

20172018

-

202220231202273

|

©2023.10080604020015%12%9%12.4%68.0568.047.86%47.83%0%-2012.4%0.71234123412341234201920202021202220231202274

|

©2023.230,0002022151,0002022niko

and…KTV

URi.tHermes

LouisVuittonChanel

Dior

Gucci47,000202280,0002022V9POPMART20231202275

|

©2023.118,600120,00020222022UniqoUR

Nitori

ChampionZaraUnited

Tokyo56,0002022100,0002022KFC20231202276

|

©2023.IFS40302010054.8%49.6%50.4%45.2%IFSSKPSKP403020100in

99SKPin99in99IFS太古里0%20%40%60%80%100%20231202277

|

©2023.2022SKP222in991,30034.1IFS31SKP7in99SKPIFS78

|

©2023.20213300100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%250200150100509.9%90.1%20208.9%15.4%41.7%57.4%91.1%84.6%58.3%042.6%200520102015202220231202279

|

©2023.“200557.4%202285.4%80

|

©2023.COSMORegularHuangshiArtStudioHOJACOSMOin

thePARK20231202281

|

©2023.“Cosmo1807

A

Few

Good

Kids82

|

©2023.886,80016.5%1,824,6006.6%20231202283

|

©2023.182,70027.0%1,128,00015.4%584,60013.2%1,129,20011.3%566,20013.4%842,40019.6%238,8008.2%351,00010.8%621,00014.6%20231202284

|

©2023.2022769,4009.1%588,3008.5%372,00027.9%339,1005.6%692,0008.0%20231202285

|

©2023.20229008007006005004003002001000227.4237.0-4.5%-0.8%-0.3%162.5286.5375.3154.0321.1259.2548.5287.0172.9-7.6%-3.6%-3.5%-3.8%-5.1%-5.2%-1.4%-3.6%-6.0%774.80.8%1,433.5261.5384.3494.6207.6-6.7%-2.4%-2.6%-2.8%310.4210.43.9%4.5%1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

42012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022364.0-2.3%20231202286

|

©2023.202220225.5%8.3%25.6%27.2%12.9%14.2%17.7%15.8%432023

1202287

|

©2023.1601401201008014916014012010080137111101949289767576

76747472727070706767656061565652604949

495060444137383534323240402927262724222015202000123456789101112123456789101112345678910111212345678910112021202220212022年2022

1-112021

1-115933850.657858251.05-24.5%-53.3%-38.1%/Daily2023

1202288

|

©2023.2022

1-112022

10-11201510501234567891011Daily2023

1202289

|

©2023.2022

10-114%202210-1124%46%6%15%9%3C/6%7%48%7%13/10-1112107%7%11%2%1%10-1114%Daily2023

1202290

|

©2023.2022

1-111-111-31-61-91-1140,70021,03416,78811,6888,1146,7905,8505,7234,5254,0053,6522,7702,7491,7001,459-0.319.79.3-5.714.29.90.414.09.10.311.08.5-0.95.9-6.50.4-4.00.7-5.8-3.00.36.61.32.09.19.79.49.24.3-0.66.70.2-3.33.511.810.61.84.75.76.84.9-2.5-1.38.2-2.72.2-3.10.87.611.83.86.95.3-2.9-9.0-4.9-8.4-5.8-7.7-7.120231202292

|

©2023.“2022

12

72023

1

82022320,3052010-201911.5%20198.0%202000

-20192020-202293

|

©2023.=-901,5001,00050013.012.011.010.09.0100-500-1,000-1,500-2,0008.07.02020202120226.02028382023

1202294

|

©2023.“2020-2022202020212021202020212022:1295

|

©2023.342096

|

©2023.20221.5.——————2.3.4.————6.——————7.8.20231202297

|

©2023.1.1/22022650600550500450400350300250200622>600590564>500483475445422404>40038237420231202298

|

©2023.1.2/22022

1-112021-202218016014012010080320%280%240%200%160%120%80%200180160140120100801200%1080%960%840%720%600%480%360%240%120%0%60604040%40200%200-40%088-1010-1515-2020-2525-3030-3535-4040-50

5020212022100%100%20231202299

|

©2023.2.2015-20255,9336,0004,8003,6002,4001,200025.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%5,2274,6064,0583,5753,1993,1502,6912,2141,9041,66920220.0%-5.0%2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022*

2023*

2024*

2025*BurtonSalomonKolon

Sport202312022100

|

©2023.3.1612840202312022101

|

©2023.4.202235302520151053,6762,4462,094885843202298327949763735659005001,0001,50020202,00020212,5002022.093,0003,5002019202312022102

|

©2023.5.2019-202225201510520SKP42102019202020212022IFS202312022103

|

©2023.6.40353025201510502022Q22022Q4202312022104

|

©2023.7.36322824201620%33.610%0%30.929.529.126.9-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%24.8202020229NCBD202312022105

|

©2023.8.2021-2022112019-202280%60%40%20%0%200%167.5%139.3%150%100%46.0%45.0%50%0%22.4%19.5%20.2%17.4%8.9%4.4%-20%-40%-17.1%-17.6%-31.3%-51.0%-50%-100%-41.5%-44.5%2021

vs20202021

vs20192022H1

vs

2021H1

2022H1

vs

2019H1Wind2023

12022106

|

©2023.“••KolonSport

Burton

Salomon••THE

HALLMaison

Margiela

Café107

|

©2023.“•CARITA

LaPerlaBeautyL'Artisan

Parfumeur•Bigoffs•2022•2022

1-1111,687.55.8%

20222022108

|

©2023.202201020304058040%30%20%10%0%6040200-4.6%-10%-20%-30%-40%-6.2%-28.1%202312022110

|

©2023.TOP520226420••271615%••85%48%52%202312022111

|

©2023.•••GAP202312022112

|

©2023.40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%202312022113

|

©2023.114

|

©2023.1601401201008016%14%12%10%8%606%404%202%00%202312022115

|

©2023.1009080706050403020100100908070605040302010020232024202520262023202420252026202312022116

|

©2023.7100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%45.5%67.0%27.5%20232024202520262023202420252026202312022117

|

©2023.16014012010080602023

20262023

12022118

|

©2023.4140.7%111.5%132.8%05010015020025020222023-2026202312022119

|

©2023.2020202020101801601401201008018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00008.0%16.0%12.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%4.0%60400.0%200-4.0%20202010202312022120

|

©2023.2010*2022*30030025020015010050250200150100500002,0004,0006,0008,00010,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,0002023120222020.2022121

|

©20232018-2022/450400350300250200150100506,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000006282322211817151411111087/2023

12022122

|

©2023.“2010-20202010202020105123

|

©2023.124

|

©2023.2022615.644.151.4+5.6-19.8+0.410.6%21.2(2009

-

2020(2021

-

2022))-1.7%//202312022125

|

©2023.20229.03.810.96.113.92.3(2009

-

20212022)202312022126

|

©2023.202220221,422,80013.5%-6.322.8%28.0%602,40010.6%9.31,989,9008.9%1.3801,1009.2%4.523.2%25.9%279,0002.0%-5.1202312022127

|

©2023.20223432304%2%0%19.6-6.0%25.2-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%0.0%27.224222021.1-3.0%3.1%//1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

42013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

202221.7%1.6%202312022128

|

©2023.“129

|

©2023.20222022130

|

©2023.132

|

©2023.••••••••ie.202312022133

|

©2023.•••••202312022134

|

©2023.50605040302010060%45%30%15%0%10080604020050%40%30%20%10%0%-10-201

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

42014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022202312022135

|

©2023.“2022202211,15413.7%2021146.1%2022

11

,31.9%

38.8%137

|

©2023.2022202280,00020%15%10%5%2,50025%20%15%10%5%2,0001,5001,00050060,00040,00020,00000%00%1-2345678910111234567891011-5%-10%-15%-5%-10%-15%202312022138

|

©2023.13.8%1601401201008040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%30.2%29.7%26.2%14.9%14.9%14.1%12.6%12.6%6011.2%8.0%402000%1234567891011-5%-10%-9.5%1-11202312022139

|

©2023.202212,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000090%75%60%45%30%15%0%202210,0008,0006,0004,0002,00009,340.0200%160%120%80%40%0%146.1%1,814.013.7%2.9%2016201720182019202020212022202312022140

|

©2023.////NDCNDCRDCCDCRDC/202312022141

|

©2023.•——••——4S——142

|

©2023.2022

1-116,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000060%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%202312022143

|

©2023.2022

1-1131.8%30.2%28.2%28.3%27.1%26.6%27.4%26.7%36.3%21.8%24020016012080240%200%160%120%80%16.6%4040%00%-40%202312022144

|

©2023.30%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%≥35%35%>≥30%30%>≥20%<20%53.5%38.8%31.9%202312022145

|

©2023.1-1118016014012010080400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%721.7%312.2%220.9%176.8%170.2%

169.3%60139.9%40121.0%50.1%50.8%46.6%33.2%31.8%2059.0%0%07.1%1.1%-20-50%202312022146

|

©2023.••148

|

©2023.20%20%10%11%2021-2022

112017-20182019/p>

4202169REITsREITsREITReal

Capital

Analytics202312022149

|

©2023.2020-20222022

1-1163.1%36.9%9008007006005004003002001000836.0202128.5%71.5%599.8202020192018201736.6%63.4%493.9427.651.3%48.7%361.6231.2201847.1%52.9%42.1%57.9%20172019202020210%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%2022

1-11Real

Capital

Analytics202312022150

|

©2023.2020

2022202020212022

1-11“4.74.78.443.615.639.716.161.428.3Real

Capital

Analytics202312022151

|

©2023.2021-2022

1132.3%5.7%7.2%2019-202066.6%2021-2022

1152.6%34.4%2017-201826.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%Real

Capital

Analytics202312022152

|

©2023.2021-20222022.112022.11ⅣAPG8640CBPCF

ILEEDCBPCF

I

CBPCF

IIALP

PSH2022.012022.082021.122021.012022.12SCIFHRAOF1401937128REIT30202312022153

|

©2023.+5.1%2021-2022

1158.9%12.9%+6.5%2019-202041.3%19.1%2017-201875.6%2.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Real

Capital

Analytics202312022154

|

©2023.2021-202211156.42019-20202017-201848.8131.802004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000Real

Capital

Analytics202312022155

|

©2023.222010080604020050%40%30%20%10%0%6-20-10%5%0%-5%-10%202312022156

|

©2023.202270605040302010063.750.243.718.017.520182019202020212022

1-11Real

Capital

Analytics202312022157

|

©2023.20227060504030201002022

1-11202194.7%83.6%202029.2%201990.7%2018100.0%20182019202020212022

1-110%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Real

Capital

Analytics202312022158

|

©2023.5.0%100%80%60%40%20%0%20221-1141.0%42.6%36.229.2%72.1%2021202020197.211.2%95.0%12.838.2%201922.5%2.00102030402018+202020212022年1-11月Real

Capital

Analytics202312022159

|

©2023.010203161

|

©2023.“+”+++162

|

©2023.•••——+••163

|

©2023.——+&••——+•164

|

©2023.2020250200150100500201720182019202020212022CREIS202312022165

|

©2023.250200150100500201720182019202020212022C