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Chapter8
IntervalEstimationPopulationMean:sKnownPopulationMean:sUnknownDeterminingtheSampleSizePopulationProportionApointestimatorcannotbeexpectedtoprovidetheexactvalueofthepopulationparameter.Anintervalestimatecanbecomputedbyaddingandsubtractingamarginoferrortothepointestimate.
PointEstimate+/-MarginofErrorThepurposeofanintervalestimateistoprovideinformationabouthowclosethepointestimateistothevalueoftheparameter.MarginofErrorandtheIntervalEstimateThegeneralformofanintervalestimateofapopulationmeanis
MarginofErrorandtheIntervalEstimateIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sKnownInordertodevelopanintervalestimateofapopulationmean,themarginoferrormustbecomputedusingeither:thepopulationstandarddeviations,orthesamplestandarddeviationssisrarelyknownexactly,butoftenagoodestimatecanbeobtainedbasedonhistoricaldataorotherinformation.Werefertosuchcasesasthesknowncase.Thereisa1-
probabilitythatthevalueofasamplemeanwillprovideamarginoferroroforless.
/2
/21-
ofallvaluesSamplingdistributionofIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sKnown
/2
/21-
ofallvaluesSamplingdistributionof[--------------------------------------------------][--------------------------------------------------][--------------------------------------------------]intervaldoesnotincludemintervalincludesmintervalincludesmIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sKnownIntervalEstimateofmIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sKnownwhere:isthesamplemean 1-
istheconfidencecoefficient
z
/2isthezvalueprovidinganareaof
/2intheuppertailofthestandard normalprobabilitydistribution
sisthepopulationstandarddeviation
nisthesamplesizeIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sKnownValuesofza/2fortheMostCommonlyUsedConfidenceLevels90%.10.05.95001.645ConfidenceTableLevela
a/2Look-upAreaza/2
95%.05.025.97501.96099%.01.005.99502.576MeaningofConfidence
Because90%ofalltheintervalsconstructedusingwillcontainthepopulationmean,wesayweare90%confidentthattheintervalincludesthepopulationmeanm.
Wesaythatthisintervalhasbeenestablishedatthe90%confidencelevel.
Thevalue.90isreferredtoastheconfidence
coefficient.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
KnownExample:DiscountSounds DiscountSoundshas260retailoutletsthroughouttheUnitedStates.Thefirmisevaluatingapotentiallocationforanewoutlet,basedinpart,onthemeanannualincomeoftheindividualsinthemarketingareaofthenewlocation.Asampleofsizen=36wastaken;thesamplemeanincomeis$41,100.Thepopulationisnotbelievedtobehighlyskewed.Thepopulationstandarddeviationisestimatedtobe$4,500,andtheconfidencecoefficienttobeusedintheintervalestimateis.95.95%ofthesamplemeansthatcanbeobservedarewithin+1.96ofthepopulationmean
.Themarginoferroris:Thus,at95%confidence,themarginoferroris$1,470.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
KnownExample:DiscountSoundsIntervalestimateof
is:IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
KnownWeare95%confidentthattheintervalcontainsthepopulationmean.$41,100+$1,470or$39,630to$42,570Example:DiscountSoundsIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
Known90%3.2978.71to85.29ConfidenceMarginLevelofErrorIntervalEstimate95%3.9278.08to85.9299%5.1576.85to87.15Example:DiscountSoundsInordertohaveahigherdegreeofconfidence,themarginoferrorandthusthewidthoftheconfidenceintervalmustbelarger.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sKnownAdequateSampleSizeInmostapplications,asamplesizeofn=30isadequate.Ifthepopulationdistributionishighlyskewedorcontainsoutliers,asamplesizeof50ormoreisrecommended.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sKnownAdequateSampleSize(continued)Ifthepopulationisbelievedtobeatleastapproximatelynormal,asamplesizeoflessthan15canbeused.Ifthepopulationisnotnormallydistributedbutisroughlysymmetric,asamplesizeassmallas15willsuffice.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sUnknownIfanestimateofthepopulationstandarddeviationscannotbedevelopedpriortosampling,weusethesamplestandarddeviationstoestimates.Thisisthesunknowncase.Inthiscase,theintervalestimateformisbasedonthetdistribution.(We’llassumefornowthatthepopulationisnormallydistributed.)WilliamGosset,writingunderthename“Student”,isthefounderofthetdistribution.tDistributionGossetwasanOxfordgraduateinmathematicsandworkedfortheGuinnessBreweryinDublin.Hedevelopedthetdistributionwhileworkingonsmall-scalematerialsandtemperatureexperiments.Thetdistributionisafamilyofsimilarprobabilitydistributions.tDistributionAspecifictdistributiondependsonaparameterknownasthedegreesoffreedom.Degreesoffreedomrefertothenumberofindependentpiecesofinformationthatgointothecomputationofs.tDistributionAtdistributionwithmoredegreesoffreedomhaslessdispersion.Asthedegreesoffreedomincreases,thedifferencebetweenthetdistributionandthestandardnormalprobabilitydistributionbecomessmallerandsmaller.tDistributionStandardnormaldistributiontdistribution(20degreesoffreedom)tdistribution(10degreesoffreedom)0z,tFormorethan100degreesoffreedom,thestandardnormalzvalueprovidesagoodapproximationtothetvalue.tDistributionThestandardnormalzvaluescanbefoundintheinfinitedegrees(
)rowofthetdistributiontable.tDistributionStandardnormalzvaluesIntervalEstimatewhere:1-
=theconfidencecoefficient
t
/2=thetvalueprovidinganareaof
/2 intheuppertailofatdistribution withn-1degreesoffreedom
s=thesamplestandarddeviationIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sUnknownAreporterforastudentnewspaperiswritinganarticleonthecostofoff-campushousing.Asampleof16efficiencyapartmentswithinahalf-mileofcampusresultedinasamplemeanof$750permonthandasamplestandarddeviationof$55.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sUnknownExample:ApartmentRentsLetusprovidea95%confidenceintervalestimateofthemeanrentpermonthforthepopulationofefficiencyapartmentswithinahalf-mileofcampus.Wewillassumethispopulationtobenormallydistributed. At95%confidence,
=.05,and
/2=.025.Inthetdistributiontableweseethatt.025=2.131.t.025isbasedonn
-1=16-1=15degreesoffreedom.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sUnknownWeare95%confidentthatthemeanrentpermonthforthepopulationofefficiencyapartmentswithinahalf-mileofcampusisbetween$720.70and$779.30.IntervalEstimateIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
sUnknownMarginofErrorIntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
s
UnknownAdequateSampleSizeIfthepopulationdistributionishighlyskewedorcontainsoutliers,asamplesizeof50ormoreisrecommended.Inmostapplications,asamplesizeofn=30is
adequatewhenusingtheexpressiontodevelopanintervalestimateofapopulationmean.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationMean:
s
UnknownAdequateSampleSize(continued)Ifthepopulationisbelievedtobeatleastapproximatelynormal,asamplesizeoflessthan15canbeused.Ifthepopulationisnotnormallydistributedbutisroughlysymmetric,asamplesizeassmallas15willsuffice.SummaryofIntervalEstimationProceduresforaPopulationMeanCanthepopulationstandarddeviationsbeassumedknown?UseYesNoUsesKnownCasesUnknownCaseUsethesamplestandarddeviationstoestimatesLetE=thedesiredmarginoferror.
Eistheamountaddedtoandsubtractedfromthepointestimatetoobtainanintervalestimate.SampleSizeforanIntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationMeanIfadesiredmarginoferrorisselectedpriortosampling,thesamplesizenecessarytosatisfythemarginoferrorcanbedetermined.SampleSizeforanIntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationMeanMarginofError
NecessarySampleSize
SampleSizeforanIntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationMeanTheNecessarySampleSizeequationrequiresavalueforthepopulationstandarddeviations.Ifsisunknown,apreliminaryorplanningvalueforscanbeusedintheequation.1.Usetheestimateofthepopulationstandarddeviationcomputedinapreviousstudy.2.Useapilotstudytoselectapreliminarystudyandusethesamplestandarddeviationfromthestudy.3.Usejudgmentora“bestguess”forthevalueofs.
RecallthatDiscountSoundsisevaluatingapotentiallocationforanewretailoutlet,basedinpart,onthemeanannualincomeoftheindividualsinthemarketingareaofthenewlocation.SampleSizeforanIntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationMeanExample:DiscountSoundsSupposethatDiscountSounds’managementteamwantsanestimateofthepopulationmeansuchthatthereisa.95probabilitythatthesamplingerroris$500orless.Howlargeasamplesizeisneededtomeettherequiredprecision?
At95%confidence,z.025=1.96.Recallthat
=4,500.SampleSizeforanIntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationMeanAsampleofsize312isneededtoreachadesiredprecisionof+$500at95%confidence.Thegeneralformofanintervalestimateofapopulationproportionis
IntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationProportionIntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationProportionThesamplingdistributionofplaysakeyroleincomputingthemarginoferrorforthisintervalestimate.Thesamplingdistributionof
canbeapproximatedbyanormaldistributionwhenevernp
>5and
n(1–p)>5.
/2
/2IntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationProportionNormalApproximationofSamplingDistributionofSamplingdistributionofp1-
ofallvaluesIntervalEstimateIntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationProportionwhere:1-
istheconfidencecoefficient
z
/2isthezvalueprovidinganareaof
/2intheuppertailofthestandard normalprobabilitydistribution isthesampleproportionPoliticalScience,Inc.(PSI)specializesinvoterpollsandsurveysdesignedtokeeppoliticalofficeseekersinformedoftheirpositioninarace.Usingtelephonesurveys,PSIinterviewersaskregisteredvoterswhotheywouldvoteforiftheelectionwereheldthatday.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationProportionExample:PoliticalScience,Inc.Inacurrentelectioncampaign,PSIhasjustfoundthat220registeredvoters,outof500contacted,favoraparticularcandidate.PSIwantstodevelopa95%confidenceintervalestimatefortheproportionofthepopulationofregisteredvotersthatfavorthecandidate.IntervalEstimateofaPopulationProportionExample:PoliticalScience,Inc.where:n=500,=220/500=.44,z
/2=1.96IntervalEstimateofaPopulationProportionPSIis95%confidentthattheproportionofallvotersthatfavorthecandidateisbetween.3965and.4835.=.44+.0435Solvingforthenecessarysamplesize,wegetMarginofErrorSampleSizeforanIntervalEstimate
ofaPopulationProportionHowever,willnotbeknownuntilafterwehave
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