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Short-Term
EnergyOutlook
STEO
September2023
September2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
2
Short-TermEnergyOutlook
Overview
U.S.energymarketindicators202220232024
Brentcrudeoilspotprice(dollarsperbarrel)
$101
$84
$88
Retailgasolineprice(dollarspergallon)
$3.97
$3.60
$3.52
U.S.crudeoilproduction(millionbarrelsperday)
11.91
12.78
13.16
NaturalgaspriceatHenryHub(dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)
$6.42
$2.58
$3.24
U.S.liquefiednaturalgasgrossexports(billioncubicfeetperday)
10.6
11.6
13.2
SharesofU.S.electricitygeneration
Naturalgas
39%
42%
40%
Coal
20%
16%
15%
Renewables
22%
22%
25%
Nuclear
19%
19%
19%
U.S.GDP(percentagechange)
2.1%
2.2%
1.4%
U.S.CO2emissions(billionmetrictons)
4.96
4.79
4.75
Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023
.Globaloilproduction.ThisShort-TermEnergyOutlook(STEO)incorporatesSaudiArabia’s
September5announcementtocontinueitsvoluntarycrudeoilproductioncutof1millionbarrels
perday(b/d)throughtheendofthisyear.Previously,thevoluntarycutwassettoexpireattheendofSeptember.Globaloilinventoriesinourforecastfallby0.2millionb/dinthefourthquarterof2023(4Q23)basedontheextensionofthisproductioncut.
.Crudeoilprices.WeexpecttheBrentcrudeoilpricetoaverage$93perbarrel(b)during4Q23,upfrom$86/binAugust.AdeclineinglobaloilinventoriesinthecomingmonthssupportstheBrent
priceinourforecast.Thepriceeasestoanaverageof$87/bbythesecondhalfof2024becauseweexpectglobaloilinventoriestoriseduringthatperiod.
.U.S.gasolineconsumption.WereducedourU.S.gasolineconsumptionforecastbecausetheU.S.CensusBureaureviseditspopulationestimatesfortheUnitedStatestoincludefewerpeopleof
workingageandmorepeopleofretirementage,whotendtodriveless.Therevisedpopulation
estimateshavealsoresultedinadownwardrevisionofou
rvehiclemilestravele
d(VMT)forecast,whichdirectlyaffectsmotorgasolineconsumption.WeforecastU.S.gasolineconsumptionwill
average8.9millionb/din2023and8.7millionb/din2024.Our2024forecastisdownby0.2millionb/dfromourAugustSTEO.
.TotalU.S.liquidfuelsconsumption.Inourforecast,U.S.liquidfuelsconsumptionaverages20.1
millionb/din2023,down0.3millionb/dfromlastmonth’sforecast.Inadditiontoreducedgasoline
September2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
3
consumption,thisforecastincorporate
schangestothePetroleumSupplyMonthl
ythatreclassifiednaturalgasolineandunfinishedoilsfromproductsuppliedtocrudeoilsupplytomoreaccurately
representtheuseoftheseproducts.Thesechangesalsoreduceourforecast2024consumptionby0.5millionb/dto20.3millionb/d.
.Naturalgasconsumption.U.S.naturalgasconsumptioninourforecastaverages80.5billioncubic
feetperday(Bcf/d)inSeptember,anincreaseof5%fromlastSeptemberandarecordfor
September.Theincreasefollowsaperiodofelevatednaturalgas-firedelectricitygenerationfromstrongU.S.air-conditioningdemandinresponsetosummerheataswellasreducedgenerationfromcoal-firedplants.
.Electricitygeneration.Weforecastelectricitygenerationin3Q23willincreaseby2%intheUnitedStatesfromthesameperiodlastyear.Theincreaselargelyreflectswarmertemperaturesthis
summeranditfollowsayear-over-year4%declineinelectricityoutputduringthefirsthalfof2023.
.Propaneprice.BeginningwiththisSTEO,wearepublishingaforecastfortheMontBelvieupropanespotprice.Oneofou
rBetweentheLines
supplementsthismonthdiscussesthisforecastinmoredetail.
Notableforecastchanges
currentforecast:September12,2023;previousforecast:August8,202320232024
TotalU.S.liquidfuelsconsumption(currentforecast)(millionbarrelsper
day)
20.1
20.3
Previousforecast
20.5
20.7
Percentagechange
-1.6%
-2.2%
U.S.gasolineconsumption(currentforecast)(millionbarrelsperday)
8.9
8.7
Previousforecast
8.9
8.9
Percentagechange
-0.4%
-2.0%
U.S.dieselretailprice(currentforecast)(dollarspergallon)
$4.31
$4.07
Previousforecast
$4.17
$3.94
Percentagechange
3.5%
3.4%
U.S.naturalgasconsumptionintheelectricpowersector(currentforecast)(billioncubicfeetperday)
35.3
33.9
Previousforecast
34.8
33.5
Percentagechange
1.5%
1.3%
U.S.Realgrossdomesticproduct(currentforecast)(percentage)
2.2%
1.4%
Previousforecast
1.9%
1.2%
Percentagepointchange
0.3
0.2
Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023
September2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
4
GlobalOilMarkets
Globaloilprices
FollowingSaudiArabia’sSeptember5announcementtoextenditsvoluntary1millionbarrelperday
(b/d)productioncutthroughtheendofthisyear,weexpectthatglobaloilinventorieswillfalloverthatperiod,addingupwardpressuretooilpricesinthecomingmonths.TheBrentcrudeoilspotpriceinourforecastaverages$93dollarsperbarrel(b)inthefourthquarterof2023(4Q23).Pricesshoulddeclinebeginningin2024asoilinventoriesbuild,withpricesaveraging$88/bnextyear.Theinventorybuildsnextyearlargelyreflectslowingoildemandgrowth,non-OPECoilproductiongrowth,andtheendof
SaudiArabia’svoluntaryproductioncuts.
TheBrentspotpriceaveraged$86/binAugust,up$11/bsinceJune.OilpricesincreasedinAugust
primarilybecauseSaudiArabiaextendedvoluntarycrudeoilproductioncutsthroughSeptemberand
U.S.commercialcrudeoilinventories
endedAugustattheirlowestlevelsinceDecember2022.
Globaloildemandandinventories
Ourcurrentassessmentisthatglobaloilinventoriesarefallingby0.6millionb/din3Q23.Inventorydrawsmoderateto0.2millionin4Q23,butOPEC+cutstooilproductionkeepglobaloilproduction
lowerthanglobaloildemand.Asaresult,weexpecttheBrentspotpricewillremainabove$90/b
through1Q24beforeaveraging$87/bovertheremainingthreequartersofnextyear.However,thepotentialforcontinuedvoluntaryproductioncutscreatessomeupsideriskforoilprices.
Globaloilsupply
Weforecastgloballiquidfuelsproductionwillincreaseby1.2millionb/din2023despiterecent
voluntarydecreasesinproductionfromOPEC+.Globalproductioninourforecastincreasesby1.7
millionb/din2024.Non-OPECproductionisthemaindriverofglobalproductiongrowthinourforecast,
September2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
5
increasingby2.0millionb/din2023and1.3millionb/din2024,ledbytheUnitedStates,Brazil,Canada,andGuyana.WeexpectRussia’sproductionwilldeclineby0.3millionb/donaveragethisyearand
remainrelativelyunchangedin2024.WeforecastthatOPECcrudeoilproductionwillfallby0.8millionb/din2023andincreaseby0.4millionb/din2024.
PetroleumProducts
U.S.motorgasolineconsumption
Wereducedou
rvehiclemilestraveled
(VMT)forecast—whichdirectlyaffectsmotorgasoline
consumption—followingthereleaseofnewpopulationestimatesfromt
heU.S.CensusBurea
u.TherevisionincreasedtheshareoftheU.S.populationover65,whichreducedourforecastforVMTand
gasolineconsumptionbecauseitdecreasedourestimateoftheworking-agepopulationcommuters.InourSeptemberSTEOforecast,theshareoftheU.S.populationthatwillbeover65is18.2%in2024,upfromourAugustSTEOforecastof18.0%.Thisseeminglysmallincreaseadds0.7millionindividualsto
thepopulationofadultsover65.Althoughthetotalpopulationremainedunchanged,theU.S.CensusBureaurevisedthepopulationundertheageof15downby0.5millionandtheworking-agepopulationdownby0.2millionpeople.Wedefinetheworking-agepopulationasages15–64becausethisgroup
accountsforthebulkoftheworkforceandregularcommuting.
InourSeptemberSTEO,weforecastU.S.gasolineconsumptionwillaverage8.9millionbarrelsperday(b/d)in2023and8.7millionb/din2024(downfromourAugustSTEOforecastof8.9millionb/din
2024).Asaresultoftherevisions,weforecastthatgasolineconsumptionwilldeclineby1.6%in2024comparedwiththisyear.
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
6
U.S.dieselcrackspread
Weraisedourdieselpriceforecastbecauseofhigher-than-expectedAugust
dieselcrackspreads
(thepriceofagallonofdieselminusthepriceofagallonofcrudeoil)andourexpectationforlowerdistillateinventoriesinthefall.
Announcedmaintenance
attheIrvingOilrefineryinSt.John,NewBrunswick,andattheMonroeEnergyrefineryinTrainer,Pennsylvania,willreducedistillatefueloilsuppliestotheEastCoast.TotaldistillateinventoriesintheUnitedStateshavebeenwellbelowaveragesincelastyear,andwecurrentlyestimateU.S.distillateinventorieswilldeclinebyabout11millionbarrelsinOctober,morethantheaverageOctoberdrawfrom2018–22ofnearly8millionbarrels,largelybecauseofthe
maintenance.ThedrawwillcontributetoadditionalincreasesinthedistillatecrackspreadinOctober,whichweestimatewillaverage$1.29pergallon(gal),a31-centincreasecomparedwiththeAugust
STEO.
Bothseasonalincreasesindemandalongwithrefinerymaintenancewillreducedistillateinventories.Increasedseasonaldemandwillalsoreduceinventories.EastCoastdistillatedemandtendstoincreaseinthewintermonthsbecausemanyhouseholdsintheU.S.Northeastusedistillateheatingoil,while
MidwestdistillatedemandtendstoincreaseinSeptemberandOctoberbecauseofagriculturaldemand
associatedwiththeharvestseason.Refinerymaintenanceandincreasedend-of-yeardistillate
consumptionaretypicalinmostyears,butouroutlookforhigherdistillatecrackspreadsalsoreflectslowglobaldistillateinventories.
NaturalGas
Naturalgasconsumption
WeforecastU.S.naturalgasconsumptioninSeptembertoaverage80.5billioncubicfeetperday
(Bcf/d),arecordhighforSeptemberandup5%fromthepreviousrecordsetinSeptember2022.Based
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
7
onourestimates,SeptemberwouldbethethirdstraightmonthofrecordnaturalgasconsumptionintheUnitedStates,afterrecordsinJuly(86.5Bcf/d)andinAugust(86.7Bcf/d).
TheincreaseinnaturalgasconsumptioninthesummerhasledtoaslightincreaseinU.S.naturalgas
consumptionin2023.WeforecastU.S.naturalgasconsumptiontoaverage89.7Bcf/dforallof2023,up1%from2022.AnnualU.S.naturalgasconsumptionsetitspreviousrecordhighin2022,averaging88.6Bcf/dfortheyear.
Electricpowersectorconsumptionofnaturalgas
WeforecastnaturalgasconsumptionintheU.S.electricpowersectorwillaverage40.1Bcf/din
September,arecordforthemonthandanincreaseof7%,or2.7Bcf/d,fromthepreviousrecordsetinSeptember2022.Naturalgasconsumptionforelectricpoweralsosetmonthlyrecordsof47.3Bcf/dinbothJulyandAugust,basedonSTEOestimates.WeforecastU.S.naturalgasconsumptionintheelectricpowersectortoaverage35.3Bcf/dforallof2023,anincreaseof6%,or2.1Bcf/d,fromtheprevious
recordsetin2022.
September2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
8
forecast
U.S.naturalgasconsumptionforelectricpowerinsummermonths
billioncubicfeetperday
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2021
20222023
June
202120222023
July
202120222023
August
202120222023
September
Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023
Note:September2023isaforecast.
IntheUnitedStates,naturalgasprovidesmostofthefuelfortheincreaseinsummerelectricity
generation.U.S.naturalgasconsumptionforelectricpowerhassetrecordsthepasttwosummersashotweatherhasincreaseddemandforairconditioningacrossthecountry,particularlyinlargely
populatedareassuchasTexas,Florida,andSouthernCalifornia.Increasesinair-conditioningdemandhaveledtoincreasesinoverallelectricitygeneration.Theportionofelectricitygenerationthatcomes
fromnaturalgashasalsorisenthepasttwosummersreflectingadeclineincoal-firedelectricity
generation,resultingfromth
eretirementofcoal-firedpowerplant
s.In2023,naturalgaspricesfortheelectricpowersectorhaveaveragedabout$2.65/MMBtufromJunethroughAugust,makingnaturalgasamorecompetitivesourceofelectricitygenerationcomparedwithcoal.Inaddition,
severalnewnatural
gas-firedpowerplantsenteredservicein2022and2023,
whichincreasedtheelectricgeneration
capacityavailablefromnaturalgas.
In2024,weforecastannualU.S.naturalgasconsumptioninthepowersectortodeclinebetween1to2
Bcf/din(about4%)comparedwith2023.Thisdeclinereflectscompetitionfromgrowingelectric
generationcapacityfromrenewableenergysources,anditdrivesasmalldeclineintotalnaturalgasconsumptionnextyear.
Electricity,coal,andrenewables
Electricitygeneration
WeexpectthathightemperaturesovermuchofthenationthissummerhaveraisedU.S.electricitygenerationbyabout2%duringthethirdquarterof2023(3Q23)comparedwith3Q22.Theincreasecomesafterrelativelylowelectricitydemandinthefirsthalfof2023reducedgenerationby4%.
WeexpectU.S.naturalgas-firedpowerplantswillgeneratearecordofmorethan1,700billion
kilowatthours(kWh)in2023,anincreaseof7%from2022.IncreasedU.S.naturalgasgenerationhas
September2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
9
beenstimulatedbyasubstantialdeclineinfuelcosts,whichweforecasttoaveragenear$3.30per
millionBritishthermalunits(MMBtu)in2023,downmorethan50%from2022.Between8gigawatts(GW)and9GWo
fnewnaturalgas-firedgeneratingcapacity
thisyearisalsocontributingtothe
increasedgeneration.Althoughnaturalgas-firedgenerationwillremainthemainsourceofU.S.
electricityin2024,weforecastthatitwilldeclineby3%in2024becauseofincreasedgenerationfromrenewableenergysources.
Solarandwindhavebeena
growingsourceofU.S.electricitygeneration
inrecentyears.Theadditionofnewgeneratingcapacityfromsolar(upby11GW)andwind(upby8GW)slowedslightlyin2022
comparedwith2021duetosupplychainissuesthatraisedcosts.However,favorablefinancialincentivesnowinplacearedrivingincreasesinutility-scalesolarcapacityof26GWin2023and33GWin2024,
whichwouldbethemostsolarinstallationsforanyyearonrecord.
Renewablecapacityadditionstendtooccurattheendofthecalendaryearandsoaffectgenerationtrendsthefollowingyear.WeforecastU.S.generationfromrenewablesotherthanhydropowerwillincreaseby22billionkWhin2023(up4%)andby91billionkWhin2024(up14%).
Electricityprices
WeforecasttheaveragepriceofelectricitytoU.S.residentialcustomerswillincreaseby4%in2023to15.7cents/kWh.Electricitypricesroseabout11%in2022to15.1cents/kWhduetoincreasesinthecostofproducingelectricity.Reductionsinthewholesalepriceofelectricity,largelyduetolowernaturalgaspricesin2023,shouldhelplowerresidentialpricesinthefuture;ourforecastshowsaverageU.S.
residentialelectricitypricesdecliningslightlyin2024to15.6cents/kWh.
SomeofthelowestretailelectricitypricesintheUnitedStatesareinthemidwesternstates.For
example,theresidentialpriceintheWestNorthCentralCensusDivisionaveragedabout13cents/kWhin2022,andwholesalepricesattheMidcontinentISOaveraged7.4cents/kWh.Incontrast,residential
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
10
electricitypricesinNewEnglandaveraged25cents/kWhin2022,andtheISO-NewEnglandwholesalepriceaveraged9.2cents/kWh.
Wholesalepowerpricesaregoodindicatorsofthecurrentcostsofelectricitygeneration.Butretail
pricesalsoreflect
longer-termcosts
suchasmaintainingthetransmissionanddistributionsystemandprocuringcapacitytosupplyfuturedemand.Alagexistsbetweenwhencostsareincurredandwhen
theyarereflectedonretailelectricitybills.Theselonger-termcostcomponentstendtocauseretailpriceincreasesovertime,despitefluctuationsinwholesaleelectricityprices.
WeforecastthatwholesalepricesforboththeMidcontinentandNewEnglandindependentsystem
operatorsin2023and2024willaverageabout40%–50%lowerthanin2022.ElectricitycustomersintheWestNorthCentralCensusDivisionmayseeslightlylowerratesin2023and2024,reflectingthelowernear-termcostsofpowergeneration.However,long-termcostsofsupplyingpowercontinuetoincreaseinNewEnglandbecauseofcapacityconstraintsintheregionandtherelianceonhigh-costpetroleum-firedelectricitygenerationduringperiodsofverycoldweather.Thesedynamicsarereflectedinour
expectedNewEnglandretailrateincreaseof16%in2023followedbya2%reductionin2024.
Coalmarkets
Coalproductioninourforecastfallsto583millionshorttons(MMst)in2023,2%lessthanthe597
MMstminedin2022.Weexpectasteeperdeclinein2024whencoalproductiondrops20%to464
MMst.Thereductionin2024isduelargelytoa20%decreaseinelectricpowersectorcoalusethisyear.Thedelayedresponseofproductiontothedropincoal-firedgenerationresultsfromcoalproducers
fulfillingsupplycontractsalreadyinplacefor2023andthecontractsnotbeingrenewedfor2024.
Atprevailingprices,coal-firedplantsareunabletocompeteeffectivelywithlower-pricednaturalgas-firedandrenewableenergygeneration.Pooreconomicsforcoalarealsoresultinginanestimated9.8GW(5%)ofcoal-firedgeneratingcapacitybeingpermanentlyretiredthisyear.Becauseofgreatly
September2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
11
reducedpowergenerationfromcoal,weforecastthatinventoriesofcoalheldbypowercompanieswillincrease60%in3Q23comparedwith3Q22.Eventhoughweforecastcoalstockstodeclineslightlyby
early2024,thegapbetweencoalproducedandconsumedwillremainwidein2023comparedwith
2022,whenhighnaturalgaspricesincreasedsummerdemandforcoal,butlaborshortagesslowedcoalproductionanddelivery,depletingcoalstocks.
Coalstocksallowutilitiestogenerateelectricityintimesofhighdemandandwhencoalproductionisloworcoaldeliveryisslow.Almost60GWofcoal-firedgenerationhasretiredsincetheendof2018,areductionof25%,andbecauseolderunitsareusuallyretiredfirst,thecurrentfleetismoreenergy
efficientandneedslessstocktoproducethesameamountofburndays.AsoftheendofAugust,weestimateutilitiesheldcoalstocksthatwouldcover140daysofpowerburn,comparedwithanaverageof76daysoverthepastfiveAugusts.
Economy,Weather,andCO2
U.S.macroeconomics
OurU.S.macroeconomicforecastsarebasedonS&PGlobal’smacroeconomicmodel.WeincorporateSTEOenergypriceforecastsintothemodeltogeneratethefinalmacroeconomicassumptions.
OurforecastassumesU.S.realGDPgrowthwillaverage2.2%in2023and1.4%in2024.WeincreasedtheGDPforecastafterdataforsecond-quarter2023(2Q23)GDPgrowthfromtheU.S.Bureauof
EconomicAnalysiswasstrongerthanwhatwehadassumedinlastmonth’sSTEO.
Inflation,measuredasthe12-monthgrowthrateoftheConsumerPriceIndex,declinedfrom6.3%inJanuaryto3.5%inAugust,butitremainshigherthantheFederalReserve’sgoalof2.0%.Thedeclineininflationwasnotaccompaniedbythepreviouslyexpectedriseintheunemploymentrate.IntheJanuary2023STEO,ourforecastshowedtheunemploymentratepeakingat5.2%in4Q23.Ourforecastnow
September2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
12
assumestheunemploymentratewillaverage3.5%in2023and3.9%in2024.Bothestimateswere
revisedlowerby0.1percentagepointfromtheAugustSTEO.Ourforecastcurrentlyassumesthe
FederalReservewillraisethetargetrangefortheFederalFundsrateby0.25percentagepointsto5.50-5.75%beforetheendof2024.
Emissions
Totalenergy-relatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsinourforecastdecreaseby3%in2023comparedwith2022.ThelargestreductioninCO2emissionscomesfromreduceduseofcoal,withemissions
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook
13
decliningby20%relativeto2022.Emissionsfrompetroleumdecreaseby1%,andemissionsfromnaturalgasincreaseby2%.
OurcurrentforecastsofCO2emissionsin2023are2%lowerthanwhatweforecastintheSeptember
2022STEO.Thedifferenceisprimarilyaresultofadownwardrevisionincoal-relatedemissions,whichweforecasttobe16%lowerthanlastyear’sestimates.Thedecreaseincoalemissionsispartiallyoffsetbyanincreaseinnaturalgasemissions,whichweforecasttobe6%higherthanlastyear’sforecast.Thechangesinthecoalandnaturalgasforecastsaremostlyduetofuelswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgas
forelectricpowergeneration.Relativepricesbetweennaturalgasandcoalareoftentheprimary
considerationinswitchingbetweenthetwofuels.Weforecastthecostofgeneratingelectricpower
fromcoalin2023tobe10%higherthanwhatwepredictedinSeptember2022,whilethecostofpowergenerationfromnaturalgasin2023isnearlyhalfofwhatweanticipatedintheSeptember2022STEO.Petroleum-relatedCO2emissionsareabout2%lowerin2023comparedwiththeSeptember2022STEO.Thisdecreaselargelyreflectstherecentreductionspetroleumconsumptionrelatedtoourincorporationof
changestothePetroleumSupplyMonthly
.Thesechangesreducedourestimatesofpetroleum-
relatedemissionsbecausenaturalgasolineandunfinishedoilswepreviouslyassessedwerebeing
consumedintheUnitedStateswereactuallybeingblendedintocrudeoilandeitherexportedandconsumedelsewhereorrunthroughU.S.refineriesandconsumedasotherproducts.TotalCO2
emissionsinourforecastremainrelativelyunchangedbetween2023and2024.
Weather
WeforecastthattheUnitedStateswillaverage22
2coolingdegreedays
(CDDs)inSeptember,22moreCDDsthanduringSeptember2022and18CDDsmorethantheten-yearSeptemberaverage.Asthe
summercomestoanendin3Q23,weexpectanaverageof1,481CDDsinallof2023,about5%fewerCDDsthanin2022.
Short-TermEnergyOutlook
ChartGallery
September12,2023
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationIndependentStatistics&Analysis
160
140
120
100
80
60
STEOforecast
NYMEX
futuresprice
95%NYMEXfuturespriceconfidence
interval
lowerbound
40
20
0
We
stTexas
Int
ermediate
(WTI)spo
tprice
WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpriceandNYMEXconfidenceintervals
95%NYMEXfuturespriceconfidence
interval
upperbound
dollarsperbarrel
2018201920202021202220232024
Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023,
CMEGroup,Bloomberg,L.P.,andRefinitivanLSEGBusiness
Note:Confidenceintervalderivedfromoptionsmarketinformationforthefivetradingdays
endingSeptember7,2023.Intervalsnotcalculatedformonthswithsparsetradinginnear-the-moneyoptionscontracts.
6
4
2
0
-2
Worldliquidfuelsproductionandconsumptionbalance
millionbarrelsperday
105
worldproduction
forecast
100
worldconsumption
95
90
85
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
//
0
2018201920202021202220232024
impliedstockbuil
d
impliedstockdraw
Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023
Worldliquidfuelsproduction
millionbarrelsperday
Worldliquidfuelsconsumption
millionbarrelsperday
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
OrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)
non-OPEC
forecast
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Organizationfor
EconomicCooperation
andDevelopment(OECD)
non-OECD
forecast
2021202220232024
2021202220232024
Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdm
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