美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国短期能源展望2023年9月

Short-Term

EnergyOutlook

STEO

September2023

September2023

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

2

Short-TermEnergyOutlook

Overview

U.S.energymarketindicators202220232024

Brentcrudeoilspotprice(dollarsperbarrel)

$101

$84

$88

Retailgasolineprice(dollarspergallon)

$3.97

$3.60

$3.52

U.S.crudeoilproduction(millionbarrelsperday)

11.91

12.78

13.16

NaturalgaspriceatHenryHub(dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)

$6.42

$2.58

$3.24

U.S.liquefiednaturalgasgrossexports(billioncubicfeetperday)

10.6

11.6

13.2

SharesofU.S.electricitygeneration

Naturalgas

39%

42%

40%

Coal

20%

16%

15%

Renewables

22%

22%

25%

Nuclear

19%

19%

19%

U.S.GDP(percentagechange)

2.1%

2.2%

1.4%

U.S.CO2emissions(billionmetrictons)

4.96

4.79

4.75

Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023

.Globaloilproduction.ThisShort-TermEnergyOutlook(STEO)incorporatesSaudiArabia’s

September5announcementtocontinueitsvoluntarycrudeoilproductioncutof1millionbarrels

perday(b/d)throughtheendofthisyear.Previously,thevoluntarycutwassettoexpireattheendofSeptember.Globaloilinventoriesinourforecastfallby0.2millionb/dinthefourthquarterof2023(4Q23)basedontheextensionofthisproductioncut.

.Crudeoilprices.WeexpecttheBrentcrudeoilpricetoaverage$93perbarrel(b)during4Q23,upfrom$86/binAugust.AdeclineinglobaloilinventoriesinthecomingmonthssupportstheBrent

priceinourforecast.Thepriceeasestoanaverageof$87/bbythesecondhalfof2024becauseweexpectglobaloilinventoriestoriseduringthatperiod.

.U.S.gasolineconsumption.WereducedourU.S.gasolineconsumptionforecastbecausetheU.S.CensusBureaureviseditspopulationestimatesfortheUnitedStatestoincludefewerpeopleof

workingageandmorepeopleofretirementage,whotendtodriveless.Therevisedpopulation

estimateshavealsoresultedinadownwardrevisionofou

rvehiclemilestravele

d(VMT)forecast,whichdirectlyaffectsmotorgasolineconsumption.WeforecastU.S.gasolineconsumptionwill

average8.9millionb/din2023and8.7millionb/din2024.Our2024forecastisdownby0.2millionb/dfromourAugustSTEO.

.TotalU.S.liquidfuelsconsumption.Inourforecast,U.S.liquidfuelsconsumptionaverages20.1

millionb/din2023,down0.3millionb/dfromlastmonth’sforecast.Inadditiontoreducedgasoline

September2023

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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consumption,thisforecastincorporate

schangestothePetroleumSupplyMonthl

ythatreclassifiednaturalgasolineandunfinishedoilsfromproductsuppliedtocrudeoilsupplytomoreaccurately

representtheuseoftheseproducts.Thesechangesalsoreduceourforecast2024consumptionby0.5millionb/dto20.3millionb/d.

.Naturalgasconsumption.U.S.naturalgasconsumptioninourforecastaverages80.5billioncubic

feetperday(Bcf/d)inSeptember,anincreaseof5%fromlastSeptemberandarecordfor

September.Theincreasefollowsaperiodofelevatednaturalgas-firedelectricitygenerationfromstrongU.S.air-conditioningdemandinresponsetosummerheataswellasreducedgenerationfromcoal-firedplants.

.Electricitygeneration.Weforecastelectricitygenerationin3Q23willincreaseby2%intheUnitedStatesfromthesameperiodlastyear.Theincreaselargelyreflectswarmertemperaturesthis

summeranditfollowsayear-over-year4%declineinelectricityoutputduringthefirsthalfof2023.

.Propaneprice.BeginningwiththisSTEO,wearepublishingaforecastfortheMontBelvieupropanespotprice.Oneofou

rBetweentheLines

supplementsthismonthdiscussesthisforecastinmoredetail.

Notableforecastchanges

currentforecast:September12,2023;previousforecast:August8,202320232024

TotalU.S.liquidfuelsconsumption(currentforecast)(millionbarrelsper

day)

20.1

20.3

Previousforecast

20.5

20.7

Percentagechange

-1.6%

-2.2%

U.S.gasolineconsumption(currentforecast)(millionbarrelsperday)

8.9

8.7

Previousforecast

8.9

8.9

Percentagechange

-0.4%

-2.0%

U.S.dieselretailprice(currentforecast)(dollarspergallon)

$4.31

$4.07

Previousforecast

$4.17

$3.94

Percentagechange

3.5%

3.4%

U.S.naturalgasconsumptionintheelectricpowersector(currentforecast)(billioncubicfeetperday)

35.3

33.9

Previousforecast

34.8

33.5

Percentagechange

1.5%

1.3%

U.S.Realgrossdomesticproduct(currentforecast)(percentage)

2.2%

1.4%

Previousforecast

1.9%

1.2%

Percentagepointchange

0.3

0.2

Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023

September2023

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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GlobalOilMarkets

Globaloilprices

FollowingSaudiArabia’sSeptember5announcementtoextenditsvoluntary1millionbarrelperday

(b/d)productioncutthroughtheendofthisyear,weexpectthatglobaloilinventorieswillfalloverthatperiod,addingupwardpressuretooilpricesinthecomingmonths.TheBrentcrudeoilspotpriceinourforecastaverages$93dollarsperbarrel(b)inthefourthquarterof2023(4Q23).Pricesshoulddeclinebeginningin2024asoilinventoriesbuild,withpricesaveraging$88/bnextyear.Theinventorybuildsnextyearlargelyreflectslowingoildemandgrowth,non-OPECoilproductiongrowth,andtheendof

SaudiArabia’svoluntaryproductioncuts.

TheBrentspotpriceaveraged$86/binAugust,up$11/bsinceJune.OilpricesincreasedinAugust

primarilybecauseSaudiArabiaextendedvoluntarycrudeoilproductioncutsthroughSeptemberand

U.S.commercialcrudeoilinventories

endedAugustattheirlowestlevelsinceDecember2022.

Globaloildemandandinventories

Ourcurrentassessmentisthatglobaloilinventoriesarefallingby0.6millionb/din3Q23.Inventorydrawsmoderateto0.2millionin4Q23,butOPEC+cutstooilproductionkeepglobaloilproduction

lowerthanglobaloildemand.Asaresult,weexpecttheBrentspotpricewillremainabove$90/b

through1Q24beforeaveraging$87/bovertheremainingthreequartersofnextyear.However,thepotentialforcontinuedvoluntaryproductioncutscreatessomeupsideriskforoilprices.

Globaloilsupply

Weforecastgloballiquidfuelsproductionwillincreaseby1.2millionb/din2023despiterecent

voluntarydecreasesinproductionfromOPEC+.Globalproductioninourforecastincreasesby1.7

millionb/din2024.Non-OPECproductionisthemaindriverofglobalproductiongrowthinourforecast,

September2023

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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increasingby2.0millionb/din2023and1.3millionb/din2024,ledbytheUnitedStates,Brazil,Canada,andGuyana.WeexpectRussia’sproductionwilldeclineby0.3millionb/donaveragethisyearand

remainrelativelyunchangedin2024.WeforecastthatOPECcrudeoilproductionwillfallby0.8millionb/din2023andincreaseby0.4millionb/din2024.

PetroleumProducts

U.S.motorgasolineconsumption

Wereducedou

rvehiclemilestraveled

(VMT)forecast—whichdirectlyaffectsmotorgasoline

consumption—followingthereleaseofnewpopulationestimatesfromt

heU.S.CensusBurea

u.TherevisionincreasedtheshareoftheU.S.populationover65,whichreducedourforecastforVMTand

gasolineconsumptionbecauseitdecreasedourestimateoftheworking-agepopulationcommuters.InourSeptemberSTEOforecast,theshareoftheU.S.populationthatwillbeover65is18.2%in2024,upfromourAugustSTEOforecastof18.0%.Thisseeminglysmallincreaseadds0.7millionindividualsto

thepopulationofadultsover65.Althoughthetotalpopulationremainedunchanged,theU.S.CensusBureaurevisedthepopulationundertheageof15downby0.5millionandtheworking-agepopulationdownby0.2millionpeople.Wedefinetheworking-agepopulationasages15–64becausethisgroup

accountsforthebulkoftheworkforceandregularcommuting.

InourSeptemberSTEO,weforecastU.S.gasolineconsumptionwillaverage8.9millionbarrelsperday(b/d)in2023and8.7millionb/din2024(downfromourAugustSTEOforecastof8.9millionb/din

2024).Asaresultoftherevisions,weforecastthatgasolineconsumptionwilldeclineby1.6%in2024comparedwiththisyear.

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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U.S.dieselcrackspread

Weraisedourdieselpriceforecastbecauseofhigher-than-expectedAugust

dieselcrackspreads

(thepriceofagallonofdieselminusthepriceofagallonofcrudeoil)andourexpectationforlowerdistillateinventoriesinthefall.

Announcedmaintenance

attheIrvingOilrefineryinSt.John,NewBrunswick,andattheMonroeEnergyrefineryinTrainer,Pennsylvania,willreducedistillatefueloilsuppliestotheEastCoast.TotaldistillateinventoriesintheUnitedStateshavebeenwellbelowaveragesincelastyear,andwecurrentlyestimateU.S.distillateinventorieswilldeclinebyabout11millionbarrelsinOctober,morethantheaverageOctoberdrawfrom2018–22ofnearly8millionbarrels,largelybecauseofthe

maintenance.ThedrawwillcontributetoadditionalincreasesinthedistillatecrackspreadinOctober,whichweestimatewillaverage$1.29pergallon(gal),a31-centincreasecomparedwiththeAugust

STEO.

Bothseasonalincreasesindemandalongwithrefinerymaintenancewillreducedistillateinventories.Increasedseasonaldemandwillalsoreduceinventories.EastCoastdistillatedemandtendstoincreaseinthewintermonthsbecausemanyhouseholdsintheU.S.Northeastusedistillateheatingoil,while

MidwestdistillatedemandtendstoincreaseinSeptemberandOctoberbecauseofagriculturaldemand

associatedwiththeharvestseason.Refinerymaintenanceandincreasedend-of-yeardistillate

consumptionaretypicalinmostyears,butouroutlookforhigherdistillatecrackspreadsalsoreflectslowglobaldistillateinventories.

NaturalGas

Naturalgasconsumption

WeforecastU.S.naturalgasconsumptioninSeptembertoaverage80.5billioncubicfeetperday

(Bcf/d),arecordhighforSeptemberandup5%fromthepreviousrecordsetinSeptember2022.Based

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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onourestimates,SeptemberwouldbethethirdstraightmonthofrecordnaturalgasconsumptionintheUnitedStates,afterrecordsinJuly(86.5Bcf/d)andinAugust(86.7Bcf/d).

TheincreaseinnaturalgasconsumptioninthesummerhasledtoaslightincreaseinU.S.naturalgas

consumptionin2023.WeforecastU.S.naturalgasconsumptiontoaverage89.7Bcf/dforallof2023,up1%from2022.AnnualU.S.naturalgasconsumptionsetitspreviousrecordhighin2022,averaging88.6Bcf/dfortheyear.

Electricpowersectorconsumptionofnaturalgas

WeforecastnaturalgasconsumptionintheU.S.electricpowersectorwillaverage40.1Bcf/din

September,arecordforthemonthandanincreaseof7%,or2.7Bcf/d,fromthepreviousrecordsetinSeptember2022.Naturalgasconsumptionforelectricpoweralsosetmonthlyrecordsof47.3Bcf/dinbothJulyandAugust,basedonSTEOestimates.WeforecastU.S.naturalgasconsumptionintheelectricpowersectortoaverage35.3Bcf/dforallof2023,anincreaseof6%,or2.1Bcf/d,fromtheprevious

recordsetin2022.

September2023

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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forecast

U.S.naturalgasconsumptionforelectricpowerinsummermonths

billioncubicfeetperday

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2021

20222023

June

202120222023

July

202120222023

August

202120222023

September

Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023

Note:September2023isaforecast.

IntheUnitedStates,naturalgasprovidesmostofthefuelfortheincreaseinsummerelectricity

generation.U.S.naturalgasconsumptionforelectricpowerhassetrecordsthepasttwosummersashotweatherhasincreaseddemandforairconditioningacrossthecountry,particularlyinlargely

populatedareassuchasTexas,Florida,andSouthernCalifornia.Increasesinair-conditioningdemandhaveledtoincreasesinoverallelectricitygeneration.Theportionofelectricitygenerationthatcomes

fromnaturalgashasalsorisenthepasttwosummersreflectingadeclineincoal-firedelectricity

generation,resultingfromth

eretirementofcoal-firedpowerplant

s.In2023,naturalgaspricesfortheelectricpowersectorhaveaveragedabout$2.65/MMBtufromJunethroughAugust,makingnaturalgasamorecompetitivesourceofelectricitygenerationcomparedwithcoal.Inaddition,

severalnewnatural

gas-firedpowerplantsenteredservicein2022and2023,

whichincreasedtheelectricgeneration

capacityavailablefromnaturalgas.

In2024,weforecastannualU.S.naturalgasconsumptioninthepowersectortodeclinebetween1to2

Bcf/din(about4%)comparedwith2023.Thisdeclinereflectscompetitionfromgrowingelectric

generationcapacityfromrenewableenergysources,anditdrivesasmalldeclineintotalnaturalgasconsumptionnextyear.

Electricity,coal,andrenewables

Electricitygeneration

WeexpectthathightemperaturesovermuchofthenationthissummerhaveraisedU.S.electricitygenerationbyabout2%duringthethirdquarterof2023(3Q23)comparedwith3Q22.Theincreasecomesafterrelativelylowelectricitydemandinthefirsthalfof2023reducedgenerationby4%.

WeexpectU.S.naturalgas-firedpowerplantswillgeneratearecordofmorethan1,700billion

kilowatthours(kWh)in2023,anincreaseof7%from2022.IncreasedU.S.naturalgasgenerationhas

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beenstimulatedbyasubstantialdeclineinfuelcosts,whichweforecasttoaveragenear$3.30per

millionBritishthermalunits(MMBtu)in2023,downmorethan50%from2022.Between8gigawatts(GW)and9GWo

fnewnaturalgas-firedgeneratingcapacity

thisyearisalsocontributingtothe

increasedgeneration.Althoughnaturalgas-firedgenerationwillremainthemainsourceofU.S.

electricityin2024,weforecastthatitwilldeclineby3%in2024becauseofincreasedgenerationfromrenewableenergysources.

Solarandwindhavebeena

growingsourceofU.S.electricitygeneration

inrecentyears.Theadditionofnewgeneratingcapacityfromsolar(upby11GW)andwind(upby8GW)slowedslightlyin2022

comparedwith2021duetosupplychainissuesthatraisedcosts.However,favorablefinancialincentivesnowinplacearedrivingincreasesinutility-scalesolarcapacityof26GWin2023and33GWin2024,

whichwouldbethemostsolarinstallationsforanyyearonrecord.

Renewablecapacityadditionstendtooccurattheendofthecalendaryearandsoaffectgenerationtrendsthefollowingyear.WeforecastU.S.generationfromrenewablesotherthanhydropowerwillincreaseby22billionkWhin2023(up4%)andby91billionkWhin2024(up14%).

Electricityprices

WeforecasttheaveragepriceofelectricitytoU.S.residentialcustomerswillincreaseby4%in2023to15.7cents/kWh.Electricitypricesroseabout11%in2022to15.1cents/kWhduetoincreasesinthecostofproducingelectricity.Reductionsinthewholesalepriceofelectricity,largelyduetolowernaturalgaspricesin2023,shouldhelplowerresidentialpricesinthefuture;ourforecastshowsaverageU.S.

residentialelectricitypricesdecliningslightlyin2024to15.6cents/kWh.

SomeofthelowestretailelectricitypricesintheUnitedStatesareinthemidwesternstates.For

example,theresidentialpriceintheWestNorthCentralCensusDivisionaveragedabout13cents/kWhin2022,andwholesalepricesattheMidcontinentISOaveraged7.4cents/kWh.Incontrast,residential

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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electricitypricesinNewEnglandaveraged25cents/kWhin2022,andtheISO-NewEnglandwholesalepriceaveraged9.2cents/kWh.

Wholesalepowerpricesaregoodindicatorsofthecurrentcostsofelectricitygeneration.Butretail

pricesalsoreflect

longer-termcosts

suchasmaintainingthetransmissionanddistributionsystemandprocuringcapacitytosupplyfuturedemand.Alagexistsbetweenwhencostsareincurredandwhen

theyarereflectedonretailelectricitybills.Theselonger-termcostcomponentstendtocauseretailpriceincreasesovertime,despitefluctuationsinwholesaleelectricityprices.

WeforecastthatwholesalepricesforboththeMidcontinentandNewEnglandindependentsystem

operatorsin2023and2024willaverageabout40%–50%lowerthanin2022.ElectricitycustomersintheWestNorthCentralCensusDivisionmayseeslightlylowerratesin2023and2024,reflectingthelowernear-termcostsofpowergeneration.However,long-termcostsofsupplyingpowercontinuetoincreaseinNewEnglandbecauseofcapacityconstraintsintheregionandtherelianceonhigh-costpetroleum-firedelectricitygenerationduringperiodsofverycoldweather.Thesedynamicsarereflectedinour

expectedNewEnglandretailrateincreaseof16%in2023followedbya2%reductionin2024.

Coalmarkets

Coalproductioninourforecastfallsto583millionshorttons(MMst)in2023,2%lessthanthe597

MMstminedin2022.Weexpectasteeperdeclinein2024whencoalproductiondrops20%to464

MMst.Thereductionin2024isduelargelytoa20%decreaseinelectricpowersectorcoalusethisyear.Thedelayedresponseofproductiontothedropincoal-firedgenerationresultsfromcoalproducers

fulfillingsupplycontractsalreadyinplacefor2023andthecontractsnotbeingrenewedfor2024.

Atprevailingprices,coal-firedplantsareunabletocompeteeffectivelywithlower-pricednaturalgas-firedandrenewableenergygeneration.Pooreconomicsforcoalarealsoresultinginanestimated9.8GW(5%)ofcoal-firedgeneratingcapacitybeingpermanentlyretiredthisyear.Becauseofgreatly

September2023

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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reducedpowergenerationfromcoal,weforecastthatinventoriesofcoalheldbypowercompanieswillincrease60%in3Q23comparedwith3Q22.Eventhoughweforecastcoalstockstodeclineslightlyby

early2024,thegapbetweencoalproducedandconsumedwillremainwidein2023comparedwith

2022,whenhighnaturalgaspricesincreasedsummerdemandforcoal,butlaborshortagesslowedcoalproductionanddelivery,depletingcoalstocks.

Coalstocksallowutilitiestogenerateelectricityintimesofhighdemandandwhencoalproductionisloworcoaldeliveryisslow.Almost60GWofcoal-firedgenerationhasretiredsincetheendof2018,areductionof25%,andbecauseolderunitsareusuallyretiredfirst,thecurrentfleetismoreenergy

efficientandneedslessstocktoproducethesameamountofburndays.AsoftheendofAugust,weestimateutilitiesheldcoalstocksthatwouldcover140daysofpowerburn,comparedwithanaverageof76daysoverthepastfiveAugusts.

Economy,Weather,andCO2

U.S.macroeconomics

OurU.S.macroeconomicforecastsarebasedonS&PGlobal’smacroeconomicmodel.WeincorporateSTEOenergypriceforecastsintothemodeltogeneratethefinalmacroeconomicassumptions.

OurforecastassumesU.S.realGDPgrowthwillaverage2.2%in2023and1.4%in2024.WeincreasedtheGDPforecastafterdataforsecond-quarter2023(2Q23)GDPgrowthfromtheU.S.Bureauof

EconomicAnalysiswasstrongerthanwhatwehadassumedinlastmonth’sSTEO.

Inflation,measuredasthe12-monthgrowthrateoftheConsumerPriceIndex,declinedfrom6.3%inJanuaryto3.5%inAugust,butitremainshigherthantheFederalReserve’sgoalof2.0%.Thedeclineininflationwasnotaccompaniedbythepreviouslyexpectedriseintheunemploymentrate.IntheJanuary2023STEO,ourforecastshowedtheunemploymentratepeakingat5.2%in4Q23.Ourforecastnow

September2023

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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assumestheunemploymentratewillaverage3.5%in2023and3.9%in2024.Bothestimateswere

revisedlowerby0.1percentagepointfromtheAugustSTEO.Ourforecastcurrentlyassumesthe

FederalReservewillraisethetargetrangefortheFederalFundsrateby0.25percentagepointsto5.50-5.75%beforetheendof2024.

Emissions

Totalenergy-relatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsinourforecastdecreaseby3%in2023comparedwith2022.ThelargestreductioninCO2emissionscomesfromreduceduseofcoal,withemissions

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|Short-TermEnergyOutlook

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decliningby20%relativeto2022.Emissionsfrompetroleumdecreaseby1%,andemissionsfromnaturalgasincreaseby2%.

OurcurrentforecastsofCO2emissionsin2023are2%lowerthanwhatweforecastintheSeptember

2022STEO.Thedifferenceisprimarilyaresultofadownwardrevisionincoal-relatedemissions,whichweforecasttobe16%lowerthanlastyear’sestimates.Thedecreaseincoalemissionsispartiallyoffsetbyanincreaseinnaturalgasemissions,whichweforecasttobe6%higherthanlastyear’sforecast.Thechangesinthecoalandnaturalgasforecastsaremostlyduetofuelswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgas

forelectricpowergeneration.Relativepricesbetweennaturalgasandcoalareoftentheprimary

considerationinswitchingbetweenthetwofuels.Weforecastthecostofgeneratingelectricpower

fromcoalin2023tobe10%higherthanwhatwepredictedinSeptember2022,whilethecostofpowergenerationfromnaturalgasin2023isnearlyhalfofwhatweanticipatedintheSeptember2022STEO.Petroleum-relatedCO2emissionsareabout2%lowerin2023comparedwiththeSeptember2022STEO.Thisdecreaselargelyreflectstherecentreductionspetroleumconsumptionrelatedtoourincorporationof

changestothePetroleumSupplyMonthly

.Thesechangesreducedourestimatesofpetroleum-

relatedemissionsbecausenaturalgasolineandunfinishedoilswepreviouslyassessedwerebeing

consumedintheUnitedStateswereactuallybeingblendedintocrudeoilandeitherexportedandconsumedelsewhereorrunthroughU.S.refineriesandconsumedasotherproducts.TotalCO2

emissionsinourforecastremainrelativelyunchangedbetween2023and2024.

Weather

WeforecastthattheUnitedStateswillaverage22

2coolingdegreedays

(CDDs)inSeptember,22moreCDDsthanduringSeptember2022and18CDDsmorethantheten-yearSeptemberaverage.Asthe

summercomestoanendin3Q23,weexpectanaverageof1,481CDDsinallof2023,about5%fewerCDDsthanin2022.

Short-TermEnergyOutlook

ChartGallery

September12,2023

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationIndependentStatistics&Analysis

160

140

120

100

80

60

STEOforecast

NYMEX

futuresprice

95%NYMEXfuturespriceconfidence

interval

lowerbound

40

20

0

We

stTexas

Int

ermediate

(WTI)spo

tprice

WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpriceandNYMEXconfidenceintervals

95%NYMEXfuturespriceconfidence

interval

upperbound

dollarsperbarrel

2018201920202021202220232024

Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023,

CMEGroup,Bloomberg,L.P.,andRefinitivanLSEGBusiness

Note:Confidenceintervalderivedfromoptionsmarketinformationforthefivetradingdays

endingSeptember7,2023.Intervalsnotcalculatedformonthswithsparsetradinginnear-the-moneyoptionscontracts.

6

4

2

0

-2

Worldliquidfuelsproductionandconsumptionbalance

millionbarrelsperday

105

worldproduction

forecast

100

worldconsumption

95

90

85

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

//

0

2018201920202021202220232024

impliedstockbuil

d

impliedstockdraw

Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,Short-TermEnergyOutlook,September2023

Worldliquidfuelsproduction

millionbarrelsperday

Worldliquidfuelsconsumption

millionbarrelsperday

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

OrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)

non-OPEC

forecast

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Organizationfor

EconomicCooperation

andDevelopment(OECD)

non-OECD

forecast

2021202220232024

2021202220232024

Datasource:U.S.EnergyInformationAdm