PMC各类预测方法对比

序号,日期,真实数值-销售数量/月,预测数值-销售数量/月,,,,,

,,,①简单移动平均法,②加权移动平均法,③指数平滑法,④多元回归分析-线性平移法,"⑤多元回归分析

-幂函数法",

1,2009年1月,"47,376","

=Average()

--无具体线性匹配","Y=α*X1+β*X2+γ*X3+δ*X4+ε*X5+θ*X6

（α+β+γ+δ+ε+θ）=1

其中各个权重可自由调整，但确保相对固定性","Qn+1=α*Qn（实际）+(1-α)*Qn（预测）

设α=0.2","

Y=36891X-27337

",Y=39334X1.0096,

2,2009年2月,"83,352",,,,,,

3,2009年3月,"49,392",,,,,,

4,2009年4月,"179,460",,,,,,

5,2009年5月,"253,296",,,,,,

6,2009年6月,"297,816",,,,,,

7,2009年7月,"403,072",,,,,,

8,2009年8月,"362,508",,,,,,

9,2009年9月,"305,250",,,,,,

10,2009年10月,"373,577",,,,,,

11,2009年11月,"431,982",,,,,,

12,2009年12月,"418,470",,,,,,

13,2010年1月,"592,584","408,010","389,520","429,280","506,920","524,089",

14,2010年2月,"467,472","312,563","443,847","524,053","543,811","564,806",

15,2010年3月,"797,874","344,573","466,125","528,543","580,702","605,550",

16,2010年4月,"600,084","406,947","559,501","624,136","617,593","646,320",

17,2010年5月,"874,414","441,999","595,318","614,091","654,484","687,115",

18,2010年6月,"802,602","493,759","678,502","698,470","691,375","727,933",

19,2010年7月,"804,427","535,824","735,328","713,620","728,266","768,772",

20,2010年8月,"1,042,019","569,270","769,814","743,498","765,157","809,633",

21,2010年9月,"952,272","625,896","853,196","820,529","802,048","850,513",

22,2010年10月,"1,041,065","679,815","897,294","832,093","838,939","891,411",

23,2010年11月,"1,037,316","735,439","951,383","879,364","875,830","932,328",

24,2010年12月,"1,139,370","785,883","986,925","908,127","912,721","973,261",

预测结果评估,,,一般,较好,一般,一般,较好,

如何有效的规避预测中存在的误差？-----滚动预测！,,,,,,,,

,,w1,w2,w3,w4,w5,w6,w7

,,10,8,11,