欧洲各国电动车产业吸引力指数

Chargingforward:EVCountryAttractivenessIndexfindingsJune

2023Jamie

MauleResearch

AnalystCornwallInsightj.maule@Cornwall

Insight

have

partnered

with

law

firm

Shoosmiths

to

create

the

Electric

Vehicle

CountryAttractiveness

(EVCA)

Index,

a

quarterly

ranking

which

charts

the

relative

attractiveness

of

majorEuropean

nations

for

investment

in

EVs

–

with

a

particular

focus

on

passenger

cars

–

and

EVcharging

infrastructure.

We

have

identified

a

variety

of

metrics

covering

a

range

of

factors

(frompurchase

subsidies

to

national

EV

charging

targets)

upon

which

nations

can

be

ranked

on

theirattractiveness.SincethepreviousiterationoftheEVCA

Index,publishedinMarch2023,therehavebeensomechangestotheEVlandscape.Newcountrieshaveemergedasleadersinbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)growthwhileothershavecontinuedtodeveloptheirchargingnetworksandmaintaineconomicstrengthatatimewhenenergypricesandinflationbothremainelevatedacrossmuchofEurope.Aswellasprovidinganupdatetoexistingmetrics,theindexhasalsobeenexpandedtoincludenewareasoftheEVmarket.OwingtotheirstatusasvitalcomponentsintheEVtransition,furthercharge-pointindicatorshavebeenaddedtotheindexandwillbediscussedindepthlater.Reflectingthesechangesanddataadditions,theindexhasseenashake-upinrankings.

Thisishighlightedonthemapandtablebelow–with1(darkershading)beingthehighestand13(lightershading)thelowest–andisfollowedbyadiscussionofthelatestdevelopmentsintherankedEVmarkets.Figure

1

–

EV

Country

Attractiveness

heatmap:EV

CountryAttractiveness

Index

findings

|

June

20232Figure

2

–

EV

Country

Attractiveness

index

scores

and

rankings:CountryNorwayNetherlandsFranceScoreRankingChange7.06.6120+2-16.536.506.496.23GermanySpain4-15+1-1United

KingdomBelgiumDenmarkIreland66.17+1+2-25.885.79Austria5.610111213-1Italy4.50Poland4.4+1-1Portugal4.2ExplainingtheshiftWhileNorwayretainsitsspotatoptheindex,asitsBEVmarketremainsby-farthemostdeveloped,manyoftheotherrankednationshaveseenashiftintheirpositions,thoughscoresremainclose.ReflectingcontinuedgrowthinBEVpenetrationanditsrobustandhighlydevelopedpublicchargingmarket,theNetherlandshasseenasignificantriseinitsrankedposition,movingfromfourthtosecond.Consequently,despitestronggrowthforbothBEVsandpubliccharge-points,bothFranceandGermanyhavemoveddownonepositionontheindex.Spainhasalsorisenuptheindex,movingfromsixthtofifth,asithasbeensuccessfulinoffsettingeconomicheadwinds,incentivisingBEVuptake,anddeployingincreasingnumbersofpubliccharge-points.Whilecontinuingtoperformstrongly,

theUKhasfallenonepositionontheindexduetoarelativelackofdevelopmentinpubliccharginginfrastructurealongsideadropinBEVsalesgrowth.NowleadingtheindexforBEVgrowthandperformingwellonpublicchargingindicators,Belgiumhasmovedfromeighthtoseventhontheindex.SimilarlytoSpain,Denmarkhasseensuccessbytacklinginflation,loweringthecostofelectricity,anddeployingpubliccharge-pointsatpace,movingfromtenthtoeighthasaresult.Ireland’sdropfromseventhtoninthreflectsitsunderdeveloped–butgrowing–publiccharge-pointmarketalongsidelossestoBEVgrowthamidcontinuedeconomicdifficulties.Despitehavingwell-developedandcomplimentaryBEVandpublicchargepointmarkets,Austriacontinuestodemonstratefairlylowgrowthacrossbothmarkets,seeingitfallfromninthtotenth.ThebottomofthetableremainslargelysimilarwithPolandandPortugalexchangingpositions.WhilebothnationscontinuetoholdbackinsomeareasofEVpolicy,

PolandhassuccessfullyrisenfromthirteenthtotwelfthduetomajorincreasesingrowthforbothitsBEVandpublicchargingmarkets.EV

CountryAttractiveness

Index

findings

|

June

20233FocusonchargingInthisseconditerationoftheEVCA

Index,wehaveincreasedthefocusonthegrowthandmaturityofcharge-pointsacrosstherankednationswiththeinclusionofthefollowingmetrics:•

BEVsperpubliclyaccessiblecharge-point•

Four-quarterlygrowthofpubliclyaccessiblecharge-points•

Achievementof

AlternativeFuelsInfrastructureRegulation(AFIR)fleet-basedcharge-pointtargetsThesemetricscomplementexistingindicatorslookingathigh-levelcharge-pointtargetsbygivingamoredynamic,on-the-ground,viewofprogresstowardskeyinfrastructuredevelopmentacrosstherankednations.Itmustbeacknowledged,however,

thatpubliccharge-pointindicatorscannotgiveacompleteviewofcharginginfrastructureinanyoftheindexednationsaswhiletheywillbeintegraltothedevelopmentofrobustEVmarkets,thevastmajorityofcharging(oftenaround80%)willbedoneathomeandattheworkplace.However,

inlieuofavailabledatasetsdisplayingprivatecharginginfrastructureacrosstheindexedcountries,publiccharge-pointindicatorsremainthebestwaytomeasurethedevelopmentofEVcharging.ChargingforwardTheintroductionofmoregranularpubliccharge-pointmetricshasstrengthenedtheindexasBEVdeploymentcanbebettermeasuredinaccordancewiththeroll-outofwidercharginginfrastructure.LeadingthewayReflectingitspositionasEurope’smostdevelopedEVchargingmarket,theNetherlandshasscoredhighlyoncharge-point

indicators.

The

Netherlands

has

one

publiclyaccessiblecharge-pointforevery~2.7BEVs–comparedtotheindexaverageof~10–and,consequently,ithasexceededits

AFIRpowerrequirementtargetsby424%.TheNetherlandshaslongdevelopeditspublicchargingnetworkbyfosteringsynergiesbetweengovernment,chargepointoperators,andinstitutions.ByofferingEV

CountryAttractiveness

Index

findings

|

June

20234generousinvestmentdeductionstobusinessesandallowingEVuserstoapplyforfreeinstallationofpubliccharge-pointswheretherearenoneneartheirhomeorplaceofwork,theNetherlandshasbeenabletobuildupanetworkrivallingallothersacrossEurope.FollowingcloselybehindtheNetherlands,Belgiumhas~3.7BEVsforeverypubliclyaccessiblecharge-point,andwithcharge-pointgrowthonanupwardtrend(at~117%

overthepastfourquarters)thisnumberappearssettoimprovefurther.

Thisisalsolargelytheresultoffavourableinvestmentdeductionsandsubsidiesforthedevelopmentofpubliccharginginfrastructureforbusinesses.

Alongsidethis,businessescandeduct75%ofelectricitycostsincurredbyEVchargingandinsomecitiesandmunicipalities,Belgianbusinessesandcitizenscanapplyforthefreeinstallationofapubliccharge-pointwheretheclosestoneismorethan250mfromtheirhomeorworkplace.Chargingincentivesdonotendthere,however,

asunlikeintheNetherlands,Belgianscanalsoapplyforprivatecharge-pointsubsidiesofupto€1,500.Alsoscoringhighoncharge-pointindicatorsisSpainwho,despitebeinganewerentranttotheEVscene,withBEVsonlymakingup0.4%percentofthetotalcarfleet,issuccessfullydevelopingarobustmarketforbothvehiclesandcharging.Withanadditional€400mnallocatedtotheMOVESiiischeme–bringingthetotalbudgetto€1.2bnuntilyear-end2023–SpainlookspoisedtoacceleratethepaceofitsEVtransition.Interestingly,however,

whilepubliccharginginfrastructureisrapidlygrowingtoservicethecurrentBEVfleet,with131%growthresultingin~4.8vehiclespercharge-pointand380%achievementof

AFIRtargets,themarketshareofBEVsremainslowatonly3.8%.

ThisisespeciallyinterestingasSpainisamongthecountriesofferingthestrongestincentivesforBEVs,atamaximumvalueof€7,000.DevelopmentonthehorizonWhileNorwaymaintainsitsleadacrosstheindex,ithasscoredpoorlyoncharge-pointindicators,withpubliccharge-pointgrowthatamodest~24.5%,and~25BEVsforeverypubliclyaccessiblecharge-pointcurrently.Although,thiscanbepartlyaccountedforas~31%ofEV

CountryAttractiveness

Index

findings

|

June

20235publiccharge-pointsare‘fast’

or‘ultra-fast’

andprivatecharge-pointsarerelativelyprevalentinNorway.WhiletheUKcurrentlyhas~11.2

BEVsperpubliclyaccessiblecharge-point,thisnumberappearssettoimprovethroughouttheyear.

WithgovernmentsupportfortheEVtransitionnowfocussingprimarilyonthefurtherbuild-outofcharginginfrastructure,theUKhasseena70%increaseinpubliccharge-pointsoverthepastfourquartersandnumbershavecontinuedtorisethroughoutQ22023.Similarly,

Irelandhasbeenexpandingitspublicchargingnetworkfollowingthepublicationofitsnationalchargingstrategyinearly2023,achievinggrowthof124%.IfthismomentumcanbesustainedIrelandalsolooksposedtoimproveitsratioofBEVstopubliccharge-points,whichiscurrentlyat~18.7.BEVgrowthacrosstheindexForthemostpart,2023hasheraldedpositivedevelopmentsforBEVuptakeacrosstheindex.HighgrowthhasbeensustainedinmanycountriesandadvancedsubstantiallyinothersasBEVsaregettingclosertoachievingpriceparitywithtraditionalinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicles.However,somecountrieshavealsoexperiencedsomesignificantreductionsintherateofgrowth.ThemostsignificantincreasestoBEVsaleshavecomefrommorenascentmarketsasBelgium,Poland,andPortugalhaveallprovensuccessfulinfurtherincentivisingBEVuptakeoverthepastfourquarters.

Attheotherendofthescale–whilestillmaintainingpositivetrends–Ireland,NorwayandtheUKhaveallexperiencedsignificantrecentdeclinesinBEVgrowth.Owingpartlytothenewfoundsuccessofits‘MobilityBudget’

schemeamidthemandatoryelectrificationofitscorporatefleets,BelgiumnowtopstheindexforBEVgrowthasoverthepastfourquarterssaleshaverisenfrom~28,000to~49,000vehicles,boastinggrowthof76.5%.ClosebehindarebothPolandandPortugalwhoexperiencedgrowthof72%and70%,respectively,assubsidiesareincreasinglymakingBEVsviablealternativestoICEvehicles.Inallthreecases,theserepresentsignificantincreasessincethepreviousindex,withgrowth10%and12%higherforBelgiumandPoland,respectively,andamajor35%higherforPortugal.Notably,

however,

bothPolandandPortugalcontinuetooccupythelowestechelonsoftheindexaswhiletheyhavesucceededingrowingtheirBEVmarkets,manyuncertaintiesremainonthepolicylandscape.PolandwererecentlychieflobbyistsinanattempttostoptheEU-widebanonthesaleofnewICEvehiclesbeyond2035,andPortugal’splansforthefutureofcharginginfrastructureareuncertainwithinvestmentsubsidiesremainingunderdeveloped.Withgrowthfallingfrom81%to52%,Irelandfacedthegreatestfall,althoughithascontinuedtoshowEV

CountryAttractiveness

Index

findings

|

June

20236strongpositivegrowthoverthepastfourquarters.

Thisdropcanbeinterpretedaspartofanexpectedlevelling-outoftheBEVmarketasitexitsitsnascentstages.InthecaseoftheUK,the15%dropingrowthoverthepastfourquarters(from40%to25%)canbepartlyattributedtothechangeineligibilityforthePlug-inGrant–nolongeropentopassengercarsthatarenotwheelchairaccessibleortaxis–inJune2022as,whilesaleshavecontinuedonapositivetrend,theyhavebeendoingsoatlowerratessincethegrantended.InNorway,

theintroductionofnewtaxratesinJanuary2023unsettledtheentirecarmarketandcausedallsalestodrop.BEVsalessawthemostsignificantdeclineasaresultofthesetaxratesbecause,whiletaxessimplyincreasedforothermodels,VAT

andweighttaxeswereintroducedtocertainBEVsforthefirsttime.Resultingly,Norway’sBEVgrowthfellfromasteady21.5%toamere7%.

Atthesametime,however,

thislosswassomewhatoffsetbyamajorriseinsalesduringQ42022asmanyNorwegianspurchasednewBEVspriortotheintroductionofthenewtaxesinJanuary2023.FutureoutlookInthenextiterationoftheEVCA

Index,welooktoseegrowthcontinuingtoflourishinbothBEVandchargingmarketsacrosstheindex.

Amongthecurrentleaders,itishopedthatassubsidieswane,increasedmarketpenetrationwillallowBEVstobecomemorecost-competitivewithICEvehicles.ItisalsoimperativethatincreasedfocusisgiventoEVcharging,bothpublicandprivate.Forthosenationsatthebottomoftheindex,furtherpolicyclarityisneededtopavethewayforcharginginfrastructure.Whilesomepositivedevelopmentshavecertainlyoccurredinthespace,thishaslargelybeenduetotheroleofprivatecapitalandshouldbefurthersupportedbynationalgovernmentcommitments.Changestothemacroeconomiclandscapeofmanyrankednationsshouldheraldsomepositivechangesinthenextiterationoftheindex.DespitethecontinuedimpactsoftheenergycrisisacrossmuchofEurope,manynationshavesuccessfullyloweredinflationrates–Denmarkhasroughlyhalvedinflationsincethelastiterationoftheindex–whileothershaveseenelectricitypricesfalltomorefavourablelevels–NorwaynowconvincinglytopsthisindicatorfollowingasignificantEV

CountryAttractiveness

Index

findings

|

June

20237declineinpowerprices.Withthesepositivetrendsreflectedacrossmuchoftheindex,morefavourablemacroeconomicconditionscouldresultinincreasinglydynamicandfruitfulBEVandEVchargingmarkets.Difficultiesstillremain,however,andthemacroeconomiclandscapecouldremainchallengingforsomerankednations,withPolandforexamplehavingexperiencedanincreaseininflationalongsideelectricitypricesremaininghigh.Indicators:A

rangeofindicators,subjecttodifferingweightings,havebeenutilisedintheproductionofthisindex.Theyarelistedasfollowswithoutregardtoimportanceorweightedvalue:•

Committedgovernmentfunding•

NationalEVsalestargets•

Rateofinflation•

ShareofBEVsinthepassengercarstock•

Four-quarterlygrowthofBEVsales•

BEVsperpubliclyaccessiblecharge-point•

NationalEVcharge-pointimplementationtargets•

SupportforICEvehiclerollbackorban•

Four-quarterlygrowthofpubliclyaccessiblecharge-points•

Availableinvestmentsubsidies,funds,andtaxbenefitsforEVsandEVcharge-points•

Achievementof

AlternativeFuelsInfrastructureRegulation(AFIR)fleet-basedcharge-pointtargets•

Availablepurchasesubsidies,funds,andtaxbenefitsforEVsandEVcharge-points•

Abilitytoconductbusiness•

WholesalecostofelectricityscaledtoGDPDisclaimerWhileCornwallInsightandShoosmithsconsiderthattheinformationandopinionsgiveninthispublicationandallotherdocumentationaresound,allpartiesmustrelyupontheirownskillandjudgementwhenmakinguseofit.CornwallInsightandShoosmithswillnotassumeanyliabilitytoanyoneforanylossordamagearisingoutoftheprovisionofthispublicationhowsoevercaused.Thepublicationmakesuseofinformationgatheredfromavarietyofsourcesinthepublicdomainandfromconfidentialresearchthathasnotbeensubjecttoindependentverification.NorepresentationorwarrantyisgivenbyCornwallInsightorShoosmithsastotheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationcontainedinthispublication.CornwallInsightandShoosmithsmakenowarranties,whetherexpress,implied,orstatutoryregardingorrelatingtothecontentsofthispublicationandspecificallydisclaimallimpliedwarranties,including,butnotlimitedto,theimpliedwarrantiesofmerchantablequalityandfitnessforaparticularpurpose.

Theinformationprovidedinthispublicationisforinformationonly,

anddoesnotconstitutefinancialadvice,investmentadvice,tradingadvice,oranysortofadvice.Numbersmaynotaddupduetorounding.EV

CountryAttractiveness

Index

findings

|

June

20238AboutCornwallInsightCornwallInsightisthepre-eminentproviderofresearch,analysis,consultingandtrainingtobusinessesandstakeholdersengagedinthe

Australian,GreatBritish,andIrishenergymarkets.To

supportourcustomers,weleverageapowerfulcombinationofanalyticalcapability,adetailedappreciationofregulationcodesandpolicyframeworks,andapracticalunderstandingofhowmarketsfunction.Understandingthatthee-mobilityandlowcarbonlandscapeisfast-pacedandoftencomplicated,ourserviceshelpyounavigatethisrapidlychangingarea.Ourproducts,forums,trainingandconsultancyservicesdistilthelatestnewsanddevelopmentsinthesector,

allowingyoutoassesstheopportunitiesandchallengesquickly.Withtheacceleratingadoptionofelectricvehiclesandthedeploymentofcharginginfrastructure,itisimportanttokeepupwiththischanginglandscape.Ourexperiencedteamofanalystsandconsultantscandojustthat,providingmarketinsightandadviceandsupportforprojects.OurEVInsightServicecanhelptoprovidetheseessentialinsightsconciselyandcomprehensively.Throughweeklynewsletters,in-depthreportingandalerts,andabi-monthlyuserforum,ourserviceprovidesinsightacrosskeycommercial,policyandregulatorydevelopmentsintheEVmarket,lookingacrossthevaluechainfromEVuptaketoinfrastructure,supplieractivityandfleetservices.Ourexpert-drivenserviceofmarketintelligenceandvitalinsightonhowmarketsaredevelopingwillenableyoutocreatethebestapproachforyourbusiness.Ben

ReadeSeniorBusinessDevelopmentManagerb.reade@+44(0)7866607963ForemoreinformationpleasecontactEV

CountryAttractiveness

Index

findings

|

June

20239AboutShoosmithsShoosmithsisthelawfirmclientschooseforexcellentservice,incisivethinkingandaboveallfortheirabilitytofocusonwhatmatters.FromofficesacrosstheUKandBrussels,thefirmsupportssomeoftheworld’smostexcitingandambitiousbusinesses;amazingclientsmakinganimpact.

A

keytenetofthefirm’sstrategyisitsfocusonfivesectors–Mobility,

Energy&Infrastructure,

Technology,

Living,andFinancialServices.Electricvehicle(EV)charginginfrastructuretouchesonallofthesesectorsand,assuch,isanareaofcombinedfocusforthefirm’ssectorgroups.Shoosmiths’

nationalmulti-disciplinarye-Mobility

&

infrastructure

team

hasaproventrackrecordsupportingtheEVsector.Theirspecialistsadvisecompaniesinvolvedthroughoutthesectorfrominitialcorporatefundraisingandinvestmenttoprojectsiteselection(includingrealestate,commercial,planningandconstructionadvice),toprojectoperationandmaintenance,tooperationalcommercialoffersforconsumersandthird-partyaccesstocharginginfrastructure,tofi