Marqeta：在线旅游面临人口统计和技术的代际转变

OnlineTravelFaces

GenerationalShiftsin

Demographics&Tech

Areviewofrecentresearch

2

Anyindustrythatgrowsfromzerotoonetrilliondollarsduringthetimeittakesalilyplantedinasidewalkgardentosproutfromaseed,blossom,andproduceonefinalflowerisboundtoexperiencesometurbulence.

Intheshortspanofits25-yearexistence,theonlinetravelindustryhasseentheriseandfallofupstarts,incorporateddisruptivetechnologies,andconsolidatedaroundmajorbrandsofunprecedentedsize.Adaptabilityhaspaidenormousdividends.ThelastdecadebroughttorridgrowthforthelargestU.S.players.

Butasthepastyearhasmadeclear,nooneintheonlinetravelindustrycanaffordtorestontheirlaurels.In2019,growthinleisuretripsslowedto3.9%worldwide,apercentagepointbelow2018,andthefinancialresultsofflagshipcompanieslikeExpediaandBookingHoldingsfellshortofanalysts’targets.Thepossibilityofadownturnwasoneveryone’smind.“SignificantchallengescapableofthrowingtheU.S.travelindustry

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

offitsgrowthtrajectoryloomonthehorizon,”Deloittewarnedinareportthatwentontodiscusstheinfrastructuresqueeze,risingoperatingcosts,andashortageofqualifiedworkers.1Andtheseconcernspaledincomparisontotheimpactofaseriesofgenerationalshiftsalreadyunderway.

Areviewofrecentresearchhighlightsthemostsignificantchangesfacingonlinetravel.Massiveevolutionaryforces—bothdemographicanddigital—aresettoforceanewroundofadaptation.Companiesthatpositionthemselveswellwillprofitenormously.Forecastsprojectacompoundannualgrowthratefortheglobalonlinetravelbookingmarketof12.1%,climbingfrom$800billionin2018tonearly$2trillionin2026.Toputthesenumbersinperspective,theglobalmarketforsmartphones,whosesalesrecentlyplateaued,was$522billionin2018.2

3

Revenue

Billions

8.8

10.7

5.8

8.4

4.0

5.2

3.03

3.08

2.9

1.9

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

Onlinetravelexceedssmartphonesinmarketsize

A$2trillionopportunity

Theonlinetravelindustrytodayis1.5xbiggerthanthe

marketforsmartphones

Onlinetravel2026

Onlinetravel2018Smartphones2018

Sources:ZionMarketResearch,December2018andGrowthfromKnowledge2019

Adecadeoftorridgrowth

11.2

14.5

2008

201020122014

BookingHoldingsExpedia

2016

2018

4

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

Demographicsdrivedemand

InSeptember2018,theearth’spopulationpassedahistoricmilestone.Forthefirsttimesincepeoplebeganmeasuringtheirrelativewell-being,morethanhalfofhumanitycouldbeconsidered“middleclass”or“rich.”3Thevastmajorityofhumanbeingslivedincountriesthatwereclassifiedasmiddle-orhigh-income—only9percentlivedinlow-incomecountries,andthatnumberwasshrinkingeveryday.4AccordingtoHomiKharas,interimvicepresidentoftheBrookingsInstitution,fivepeoplejoinedtheglobalmiddleclasseverysecond.

Theimplicationsforthetravelindustry—bothonlineandoffline—werehuge.Amiddle-classfamily,definedasahouseholdthatcouldspend$11to$110perperson

perday,hadenoughdiscretionaryincometoafforddurablegoods,entertainment,andtravel.Atthelowerend,theycouldaffordabicycleoramotorcycle,gotothemoviesorarestaurant,andtakeaholidayawayfromhome.TheyhadaccesstotheInternetandabankaccountwithafinancialinstitutionoramobile-moneyproviderandadesiretoexperiencemoreoftheworld.5

Indeed,researchrevealsthereisnolongeranyreasontoassumethatfamiliesofmodestmeanswillrestricttheirvacationstofamiliarplaces.AccordingtoVisa,“By2025,nearlyhalfofallhouseholdsgloballyshouldbeabletoaffordtravelaspartofthenewtravelingclass.”6

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OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

Economicstabilitybringsoutnewtravelers

Demographicsdrivedemand

Tentimesasmanypeoplejointhemiddleclasseverysecondthanjointheranksoftherich

Themiddle-class

planetwecallhome

50%+

2people

movefrom“poor”to“vulnerable”every2seconds

10people

movefrom

1person

1personmovesfrom“middleclass”to“rich”every2seconds

peoplewhocanbe

considered“middleclass”

or“rich”

“vulnerable”to“middleclass”

every2seconds

9%

peoplewholiveinlow-in-

comecountries

Asmiddle-classfamiliesbuildwealth,theyprioritizetravel

Whatmiddle-classfamiliesbuy:

Refrigerators

(Householdswitha

spendingpowerof

$7to$16perday)

Transport&

mobilephones

(Householdswitha

spendingpowerof

$16to$17perday)

Washingmachines

(Householdswitha

spendingpowerof

$27to$55perday)

Leisuretravel

(Householdswitha

spendingpowerof

$50ormoreperday)

Sources:Brookings,“Aglobaltippingpoint:Halftheworldisnowmiddleclassorwealthier,”September27,2018;Factfulness,byHansRosling,NewYork:FlatironBooks,2018,p.31;andWorldDataLab.“EmergingTrendsinTheGlobalMiddleClass:APrivateConversationwithDr.HomriKharas,”April17,2019

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OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

Whatmoderntravelerswant

It’sthesoon-to-be$2trillionquestion.Whatdoesamoderntravelerwant?Atleasttensandpossiblyhundredsofthousandsofdollarsarespenteach

yeartryingtoparsetheneedsanddesiresofmoderntravelers,fromboomers,whoarethebiggestspenders,toGenZ,whoistheyoungestandmostbudget-consciousgroup.Andwhileeveryonewantstospendtimewithfamilyandfriends,getawayfromtheirday-to-dayroutine,andrelaxandrejuvenate,therearemarkedgenerationaldifferences.

GenX,bornbetween1965and1979,isoftencalledthesandwichgeneration,caughtbetweenlargergroupsofboomersandmillennials.Oncedismissedasslackers,theirachievementsbeliethestereotype.Theyarebettereducated—35%ofGenXershaveadegreeversus19%ofmillennials—andmoreentrepreneurialthanothergroups,makingup55%ofstartupfoundersasof2016.7Whenitcomestotravel,family-friendlylocationsandactivitiesareatoppriority.Soisthechancetotakeabreakfromdemandingjobs.Comparedtoboomers,GenXerstravelmoreandspendless.Theyaverage4.9tripsayearcomparedtotheboomeraverageof4.4trips.

MillennialsaverageasmanytripsasGenXers,butbecausetheyformalargercohort,theirpreferencesare

havinganoutsizedimpactontheindustry.Fouroutoffivemillennialssaytheyvalueexperiencingadifferentcultureoverpartying(twooutoffive)8orshopping(oneoutoffive).Forlocalimmersion,theyturnedtoneighborhoodandcommunityevents,theater,musicfestivals,andfoodandwinefestivals.Anxioustogettoknowachangingworldbeforeaspectsofitdisappearforever,theyexpressedapreferencetosavefortravelovermoretraditionalinvestments,includingbuyingahouse.9

SustainabletravelwasimportanttobothmillennialsandGenZ,theyoungandupcominggeneration,bornafter1995,whosesizeisprojectedtodwarfallthegenerationsthathavecomebeforeit.Alreadydescribedasmoresociallyandenvironmentallyaware,theyoungpeopleinGenZrecognizethattravelandtourismcanbedouble-edgedswords.Whiletheycreatejobs,drivedevelopment,andcanadvanceurbaninfrastructureandaccessibility,theyalsocontributetoclimatechangeandthedestructionoflocalhabitatsandcultures.Inarecentsurveyof18to26yearolds—ablendofmillennialsandGenZ—86%saiditwasimportanttothemtoconsideratravelcompany’scommitmenttosustainableoptionswhenbookingatrip,and90%saidthecompany’scommitmenttoethicaltravelwasimportant.10

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OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

Travelpreferences,theyareachanging

Travelisagenerationalafair

Timeaccessingtheinterneteachday

Hours,viaPC

24%Babyboomers9%Greatestgeneration

1:201:021:02

0:08

26%GenZ

GenX

Millennial

Babyboomer

GenZ

22%Millennials

Hours,viamobilephone

5:00

GenZ

20%GenX

Travelprioritiesareshi什ingintheU.S....andaroundtheworld

86%

4outof5millennials

wouldratherexperienceanewculturecomparedto1.5outof5whowouldrathershop

52%

1outof2millennialsandGenZ

travelerswouldvisitlesser-knowndestinationsovermorepopularonesifitmeanshavinglessofanimpactontheenvironment

37%

1outof3millennialsandGenZ

travelersarelikelytowanttovolunteerwhiletraveling

400million

thenumberofChinesemillennials

isgreaterthanthepopulationoftheU.S.

andCanadacombined

90%

ofChinesemillennialshaveasmartphone

83%

ofpaymentsinChinaweremadethrough

mobiledevicesin2018

Sources:NielsenTotalAudienceReport,MarketingLand,“Moveovermillennials,GenZisnowthelargestsinglepopulationsegment,”July17,2017;IBM,“UniquelyGenerationZ”;TopdeckTravel;andB;NewYorkPost,“ChinesemillennialsareabouttokickU.S.millennialsbutts,”February17,2018;DaxueConsulting

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Thebiggestshake-up

Twodistinctlynewgenerationsoftravelersandtheprojectedmassiveincreaseindemand—combinedwithanevolutionaryshifttoopentechnologies—areputtingintensepressureonalltheplayersinthetravelvaluechain.

Companiesineveryindustryarecontendingwiththeopportunityandthethreatposedbythecloud,mobile,bigdata,machinelearning,artificialintelligence,IoT,andotheremergingtechnologies.Astheynavigatetheirdigitaltransformations,travelplayershaveadditionalconsiderations.TheNewDistributionCapability(NDC)currentlybeingrolledoutacrosstheindustry,willgivetravelsuppliersgreatercontroloverhowtheyprice,merchandise,andmarkettheirproducts.

AnAPI-enabled,XML-basedmessagingprotocol,NDCisdesignedtoenableairlinestomaketravelersintelligent,differentiatedtraveloffers.

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

AccordingtoveterantravelindustryanalystHenryHarteveldtofAtmosphereResearch,airlinesinthefuture“willmoveawayfromtermslike‘fare’and‘ticket’andtowardtermslike‘price,’‘journey,’and‘experience.”11ThiskindofpersonalizationreflectsthestatedpreferencesofbothmillennialandGenZtravelersandispotentiallyagamechangerfortheindustry.

“Massivedisruption.Theendofanera.Theendoftheindustryasweknowit,”ishowAndersBernström,asolutionsexpert,describedNDC.“Thismightsoundlikeadoomsdayscenario,butwe’reabouttofacethebiggestshakeupthetravelindustryhaseverseen.”12

9

Ofers

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

TheNewDistributionCapability

NDCisunleashingnew,morecompellingwaysofsellingtravel

Legroom

Extraluggage

FreeWifi

Gourmetmeal

Families

Solosenior

Businessperson

GenZ

Thedigitalimperative

TheadventofNDCraisesthequestion:Istheonlinetravelbookingindustrypreparedtocopewithanothernewtechnology?AccordingtoMcKinsey&Company,astudyofthecross-deviceclickstreamdataofatypicalcustomer’sattempttopurchaseaccommodationsrevealedthatcompaniescontinuetostruggletoprovideagoodexperiencefortravelersusingdigitalchannels.“Thedatashowedrightawaythatfindingtravelaccommodationsisprotracted,complex,and

sometimesannoying:Anaveragepurchasejourneyforasinglehotelroomlasts36days;hits45touchpoints,

distributedamongsearchenginesandthesitesofintermediariesandsuppliers;andinvolvesmultipledevices,”AlexDichter,aseniorpartnerintheconsultingfirm,reported.13

Whenasked,customersvoicedaclearpreferenceforbookingaccommodationsdirectly.Incustomersatisfactionsurveys,onlinetravelagenciesreceivedascoreof79versus86forthedirectbookingexperience.14

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Ontopofacumbersomeuserexperience,onlinetravelbookingcompaniesareuniquelychallengedbybadactors.Creditcard,ACH,check,andwirefraudarealargeandgrowingproblemacrossindustries.Accordingtothe

AssociationforFinancialProfessionals,82%offinanceprofessionalsreportedtheircompanieswerevictimsofpaymentfraudin2018.15E-commercebusinesses,likeonlinetravelbookingcompanies,areprimetargets.

Whileonlinetravelisyetasmallsegmentofthe$8.8trilliontravelindustry—just9%—itisespeciallyvulnerabletofraudduetotheneedtoacceptcreditcardsoverthewebinwhatareknownas“cardnotpresent”transactions.These“cardnotpresent”transactionsbecameaprimarytargetoffraudstersfollowingtheintroductionofcreditcardsembeddedwithEMVchipsin2011.AccordingtoVisa,chipcardshavecausedan87%declineincounterfeitfraud—whendatafromstolencardsareprintedonfakecardsandusedtomakein-personpayments.

“Chipcardsareincreasinglybecomingthenorm”forin-personpayments,Visanoted.16Asaconsequence,fraudstersaredoublingdownone-commerce.In2019,creditcardfraudincreasedto64%offraudlossesformid/largee-commercemerchants,upfrom47%ofallfraudlossesin2018.17Whilecreditcardfraudisaproblemforonlinetravelcompanies,costingthem$3.13foreverydollartargetedbyafraudster,thepricepaidbyconsumersisevensteeper.18

Whenaskediftheyhadexperiencedfraudontheircreditcardinthelastfiveyears,nearlyoneintwoAmericanssaidyes.19Victimsoffraudwhoalsohadtheiridentitystolensufferedeverythingfromfearandsuicidalthoughtstothelossoftheirhomesortheabilitytotakecareoftheirfamilies.20

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

Virtualcards,oneofthemosteffectiveresponsestofraud,havebeengainingtraction.Nearlyoneinthreecompaniessurveyedsaidtheyusedvirtualcardstopayforemployees’hotelaccommodationcostsin2019,upfromjust8%in2015.21Somesay2020willbethetippingpoint,whenthe16-digitnumbers,freedfromtheirplasticencasing,becomewidelyused.Unlikeregularcreditcards,itiscommontouseavirtualcardjustonce,eliminatingthedamagethatcanbedoneifthenumberweretofallintothewronghands.Bothvirtualandphysicalcardscanalsobeauthorizedforuseatcertainmerchants,atcertaintimesofday,evenatcertainterminals.

Theideaofavirtualcardisalsogainingtractionasconsumersincreasinglyadoptdigitalwallets.AccordingtoJuniperResearch,consumeruseofdigitalwalletswillriseto$790billionthisyear,up40%.22

TheU.S.travelindustryhastakennotice.InanarticleinPhocusWire,MortenLarsen,headofproductmarketingatB,reportedthatoneinfivecustomerswillabandonareservationiftheirpaymentmethodofchoiceisunavailable.Thisbehaviorunderscoredtheneedforcompaniestoadapttoaneweraofonlinepayments,hesaid.23

“Beingonestepaheadisnevereasy,particularlywhenconsumerbehaviordiffersmarketbymarket,”Larsenwrote.“Andwhilemuchremainstobeseenregardingwherethiswillleadinthefuture,onethingiscertain:Everythingpointstowardstheimportanceofonlinepayments,suchase-walletsandothersolutionsthataremoredigitallyadvancedthantraditionalcreditcards.”24

11

45%

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

Onlinetravelhasroomforimprovement

Behindtheheadlines,onlinetraveliscomplexandmessy

36

days

averagepurchasejourneyforasinglehotelroom

45

touchpoints

averagepurchasejourneyforasinglehotelroom

5weekstobook1room

engine

Search

OTA

Hotel

Onlinepaymentfraudis

growingfast

82%

offinanceprofessionalsreportedtheircompanieswerevictimsofpaymentfraudin2018

amountcompaniessupportingretailtransactionswillspendonfrauddetectionandprevention

$130billion

$9.6billion

amountresearchersstandtoloseon

fraudulentcard-not-presenttransactionsbetween2019and2023

Atargetispaintedonmid/large

e-commercemerchants

Lossesfromcreditcardfraudclimbedfrom47%in2018to64%in2019formid/largee-commercemerchants

64%

2018

2019

$3.13

costofeverydollartargetedbyafraudster

Sources:McKinsey&Company,“Howtoservetoday’sdigitaltraveler,”December2018;Skift;J.P.Morgan,“HowCommercialCardsHelpKeepFraudatBay,”byBrianMcGoldrick,October31,2019;JuniperResearch;Chargeback,“2019TrueCostofFraudReport,”bySydneyVaccaro,October8,2019

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Onlinetravelin2045

In2045,thelifespanofonlinetravelwillbedoublewhat

itistoday.Whatwilltheindustrylooklikethen?Itistemptingtopredictthatdigitaltravelwilldominate,thatpeoplewilloverwhelminglycarrydigitalwallets,andthatthefinancialsystemthatfacilitatesthepurchaseoftransportationandaccommodationswillbelargelyoverhauled.

Inreality,thehighlycomplexandinterconnectednatureoffinancial,social,governmental,political,andenvironmentalsystemsmakesforecastingtricky.Tomorrow’stravelersmaycontinuetoseeklocalculturalexperiences,ortheymaybemorestronglyattracted

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

toexclusiveenclavesthatcateronlytothem.Theymaycontinuetodemandsustainability,ortheymaysurrendertoaworldwhosecharacterhaschangedforever.Whatweknowforsureisthattheywillbemorenumerousandthateachgenerationislikelytohavedistinctpreferences.

Asmuchascompanieswanttoprepareforthefuture,sometimesareadinesstochangecourseisthebestlong-termplan.Thelessonfromthefirsttwenty-fiveyearsoftheonlinetravelindustry’sexistenceisthatifonecharacteristictrumpsallothers,itisadaptability.

OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech

Notes

1Deloitte,2019USTravelandHospitalityOutlook,

/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consumer-business/us-consumer-2019-

us-travel-and-hospitality-outlook.pdf

2MorningstarResearch,“Onlinetravelstockswithroomtorun,”May5,2019;GrowthfromKnowledge,“Globalsmartphonesalesreached$522billionin2019,February22,2019;MotleyFool,“IDC:SmartphoneMarkettoReturntoGrowthin2020,”September9,2019

3Brookings,“Aglobaltippingpoint:Halfofworldisnow