具有中国特色的绿证：绿证将帮助中国清洁能源转型么

JulyteswithChinesecharacteristicsWillgreencertificateshelpChina’stransitionRCECHINAAndersHove,SeniorResearchFellow,OIES&GarySipengXiePolicyAdvisorandBritishColumbiaAdvisortonadasMinisterofNaturalResourcesThecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsmembers.Copyright©2023OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies(RegisteredCharity,No.286084)Thispublicationmaybereproducedinpartforeducationalornon-profitpurposeswithoutspecialpermissionfromthecopyrightholder,providedacknowledgmentofthesourceismade.NouseofthispublicationmaybemadeforresaleorforanyothercommercialpurposewhatsoeverwithoutpriorpermissioninwritingfromtheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies.ISBN978-1-78467-213-3Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.i‘AcknowledgementsTheauthorsgratefullyacknowledgethehelpfuladviceandcommentsprovidedbyPhilipAndrews-SpeedofOIES,SharonFengofAzureInternational,MichalMeidanofOIES,YanQinofRefinitiv,YeRuiqiofGreenpeaceEastAsia,ZhangSufangofNorthChinaElectricPowerUniversityandXuZhengofBP.Anyerrorsaretheresponsibilityoftheauthors.Thispaperwasfirstpublishedon1August2023.Itwasupdatedandre-postedon8August2023toreflectanewpolicyreleaseon3August2023.Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.‘yGreenpowertradingisapotentialmarket-orientedapproachtopromotingacleanenergytransitioninChinaandshiftingawayfromthesubsidy-andplanning-basedapproachusedsofar.Inpractice,however,China’sleadinginstrumentforthispolicy,thegreencertificate,hasfacedseriousobstaclestoacceptance.Whilenewpoliciesandexistingtrendswillhelpresolvesomeoftheseobstacles,moremustbeovercomebeforeChina’sgreencertificatescanplayasignificantroleinacceleratingthecountry’sadoptionofclean,renewableenergy.Chinaisaleaderinrenewableenergy,includingwind,solar,andhydro.Windandsolar,knowninChinaas‘newenergy’,havebeensupportedbysubsidizedfeed-intariffs,minimumpurchaseamounts,quotas,andauctionsunderthegridparityprogramme,aswellasadditionalprogrammesfordistributedsolar.Mostwindandsolarcapacityisownedbystate-ownedpowercompanies,andthemajorityofitsoutputissoldtothegridwithoutanydirectparticipationbytheprivatesector,thoughthisischanginggradually.Foryears,Chinahasalsohadvariouspoliciestopromotetheprivatepurchaseofrenewableelectricity,mostnotablythegreencertificateprogramme.AChinagreencertificaterepresentsthefinancialpurchaseof1,000kWhofwindorsolarelectricity;thecertificatesareissuedbyaregulatoryentitytoqualifiedwindandsolargenerators,whichcanthensellthecertificatestoprivateorstate-ownedpurchasers,whichbuycertificatesonavoluntarybasis.Theinitialphaseofthisprogrammeproducedfewresults,butanuptickinmarketinterestsince2021andrecentpolicydocumentssuggestgreenpowerpurchasingislikelytoplayalargerroleinChina’spowersystem.JustasChina’sinternalelectricitymarketandsystemhavetendedtodivergefrominternationalexamples,China’sgreencertificatesystemisunique,andthecompatibilityofChina’sgreencertificateswithinternationalpracticesisunclear.Originallydesignedtohelpphaseoutgovernmentsubsidiesforwindandsolar,greencertificatesareundergoingatransitiontowardssupportingunsubsidizedwindandsolar.However,China’sgreencertificatemarketfacessignificantnear-termobstaclesaroundtransparency,regulation,anditsrole—whetherinmeetingthelow-carbongoalofprivatecompaniesorincontributingtotheprovincialtargetsandquotasonenergyconsumptionandrenewableintegration.Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.‘Acknowledgements iiExecutivesummary iiiContents ivFiguresandTables ivIntroduction 1BackgroundonChina’srenewableenergypolicies:Priorpolicysupportandsubsidiesforwindandsolar 2China’sgreencertificatepoliciesandmarket:Historyandpresentsituation 6Earlyhistoryofthemarket 6Electricpowermarketreformsanddirectgreenpowertrading 9Potentialresolutionoffeed-intariffsubsidydeficit 9ProblemsandchallengesforChina’sgreencertificatemarket 10Lowtradingvolumes 10Lackofadditionality 11Double-counting 12Lackoftransparency 13CompetitionwithInternationalRenewableEnergyCertificates 14Internationalrecognition 15EvolutionofgreencertificatesoutsideofChinaandpotentialimpactonChina’smarket 17Conclusions:Variousbarriersremainbeforegreencertificatescanplayalargerrole 18sFigure1:Chinarenewableenergysurchargelevelsovertime,2006–2023,RMB/kWh 3Table1:Cumulativegreencertificatessoldasapercentageoftotalgreencertificatesissued 11Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.‘Foralmostadecade,Chinahassoughttointroducemoremarketelementsintoitselectricitysector,bothtoimprovethesector’seconomicefficiencybyprovidingmoremarketpricesignalsforinvestmentandoperationandtoencourageparticipationofnewplayers,onboththegenerationsideandtheconsumptionside.Forrenewableenergy,whereChinahassoughttoreducedependenceongovernmentsubsidies,marketinstrumentssuchasgreencertificatesofferthepotentialtoinvolvepublicandprivatecompaniesinthecountry’scleanenergydeploymentwhilelesseningitssubsidyburden.In2017,whenChinalauncheditsgreencertificateprogramme,thecountrywasalreadytheworld’sleadinginstallerofrenewableenergyintermsofwind,solar,andhydro.Theinitialgreencertificatepolicyhadseveralstatedgoals,buttheleadingpurposewastoraiserevenuesforrenewablesfromtheprivatesector—particularlyfromprivatecompaniessuchasmultinationalconsumerbrands—andreducetheneedforsubsidiesandotherpolicysupport.Intheyearssince,subsidieshavebeenwithdrawnfornewprojectsandlimitedforolderprojects,butgreencertificateshavestillstruggledtotakeoff.Morerecently,tradingvolumeshaverisen,andinmid-2023amajornewreformintroducedthatcouldexpandtheroleofgreencertificates.ThepurposeofthispaperistotakestockofChina’sgreencertificateprogrammeandanswerthefollowingimportantquestions:(1)Towhatextenthavegreencertificateshelpedacceleratethedeploymentofrenewables,andwillthischangeinthenearterm?(2)Whyaregreencertificatepurchasevolumesincreasing,andwhateffectwillthishave?(3)HowattractiveareChina’sgreencertificatestoprivatecompanies—particularlyinternationalcompanies—andareChina’sgreencertificatesrecognizedinternationally?Thepaperisstructuredinfoursections.ThefirstsectiongivesbackgroundinformationonChina’srenewableenergypolicies,especiallyastheyrelatetogovernmentsubsidies,giventhatgreencertificatesbeganasastrategyforphasingoutandreplacingsuchsubsidies.ThesecondsectionprovidesanexplanationofthehistoryandpresentsituationofChina’sgreencertificatepoliciesandmarket.Thethirdsectiondiscussesproblemsandchallengesfacedbythegreencertificatemarket.ThefourthsectionevaluatestheextenttowhichChina’sgreencertificatesarelikelytoberecognizedbyinternationalcompaniesactiveinpurchasingrenewableenergyandrelatedinstruments.TheevolutionofrenewableenergypolicyinChinaandthegradualintroductionofmarket-orientedelementsintowholesaleelectricitytradingpointtoabrighterfutureforgreencertificatetrading.Thereasonsare:Whilethegovernmentstillseekstousegreencertificatesasatooltoraiserevenueforrenewableenergy—byencouragingbusinessesandindividualstopurchasecertificates,withpaymentoffsettinggovernmentsubsidyobligations—recentgovernmentpoliciestotopupthesubsidyfundmeanthereislessurgencytousesuchrevenuestosubstituteforthefeed-intariffdeficitowedbythegovernment.Thislessensthemarket’sperceptionthatgreencertificateslackadditionality,whichwasamajorobstacleintheearlyyearsoftheprogramme.Thetrendtowardsaresolutionoftherenewablesubsidydeficitmakesaddressingthisdeficitalesssalientpolicygoalforgreencertificates,butifgreencertificatesbecomesuccessful,thiscouldleadtofurthermovestoshiftolderwindandsolaroffoffeed-intariffs.Policymakersthereforehaveanincentivetoincreasetheattractivenessofgreencertificatesinthehopeoffurtherreducingthegovernmentsubsidyburden,evenafterthefeed-intariffdeficitisresolved.Anincreasingsupplyofwindandsolaroutputwithunsubsidizedelectricityproductionisavailableformarketingwithgreencertificates,andtheselower-costgreencertificatesissuedbyunsubsidizedwindandsolarprojectsaremoreeconomicallyattractiveforpurchasebytheprivatesectorrelativetogreencertificatesfromsubsidizedprojectsinthepast.However,despitethesepositivedevelopments,thereremainmanyobstaclestothedevelopmentofavibrantandactivegreencertificatemarketthatwouldcontributetoChina’slow-carbonpolicygoals.ThefutureevolutionofChina’sgreencertificatemarketishighlyuncertain,asistheextenttowhichgreencertificateswillberecognizedinternationally.OutsideofChina,thereisanincreasingshiftfrompoliciesthatsimplyaddmorerenewablecapacitytoensuringrenewablesareconsumedwhereandwhentheyareneeded.ThishasledtoapushinEuropeandNorthAmericatowardstime-matchedrenewablemarkets,whichcouldmeanChina’sgreencertificateswillbeoutofstepwithchangesinotherregions.Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.Theydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviews1oftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.nChinasrenewableenergypoliciesPriorpolicysupportandsubsidiesforwindandsolarThebackgroundofChina’sgreencertificatemarket,whichproperlybeganin2017asanadditionalsupportpolicyforwindandsolarenergy,islinkedtothehistoryofrenewableenergysubsidiesinChinathatdatebacktwodecades,andparticularlytothedeficitinsubsidypaymentsrelatedtothedesignofthecountry’sfeed-intariffforwindandsolarelectricitygeneration.Chinabeganpromotingwindandsolartechnologiesasearlyasthe1990s,andthecountry’sdomesticwindmarketreachedgigawattscaleinthemid-2000s,inpartduetotheCleanDevelopmentMechanismundertheKyotoProtocol,whichresultedinfinancialtransfersforChinesewindprojectsfromWesterncountriesseekingtocomplywithcarbonemissiontargets.1TherealinflexionpointforwindandsolarcapacityinChinatookplacearound2010–11.In2009,afterseveralyearsofpromotingwindpowerviasubsidizedcapacityauctions,Chinaintroducedasubsidizedfeed-intariffforwindenergy,grantingafixedpaymenttarifffor20yearstonewprojectsapprovedunderthescheme.2Subsidiesforwindcapacityauctionsandsubsequentfeed-intariffswerefundedthroughthecollectionofasurchargeonelectricitysalestomostcustomers.Agenerousfeed-intariffwasalsointroducedtocoversolarphotovoltaic(PV)in2011.3Theintroductionofthesesubsidizedfeed-intariffscoincidedwiththetake-offofthetwotechnologiesinChina:windpowercapacityrosefrom12GWin2008to63GWin2011,andsolarPVcapacityrosefromunder1GWin2010to3GWin2011andto16GWin2013.TheChinesefeed-intariffwasmodelledonthefeed-intariffintheGermanrenewableenergylaw4andsufferedfromsomesimilardrawbacks.Inparticular,China’sfeed-intariffwasadjustedonanannualbasis,andtypicallysuchadjustmentslaggedtheindustry’sprogressinreducingcosts.Thisresultedinaboom–bustpatternofwindinstallations—and,startingin2011,solarPVinstallations—thatultimatelyledwindandsolarcapacitytogrowfarbeyondgovernment-settargets.UnderChina’sRenewableEnergyLaw,gridcompanieswereobligatedtopurchasealltheelectricityoutputofwindandsolargenerators,andalloutputqualifiedforsubsidizedfeed-intarifflevels.However,gridcompanieshadlittleincentivetodispatchwindandsolarpowerovercoalpower,leadingtohighratesofcurtailedwindandsolaroutput:curtailmentreachedover17percentatitspeakforwindpowerin2016,and12percentforsolarPVin2015.5Further,governmentfeed-intariffsubsidyobligationsdramaticallyexceededrenewableenergysurchargerevenues,leadingtoanongoingproblemofrenewablesurchargedeficits,6eventhoughthecentralgovernmentsteadilyraisedthesurcharge,fromRMB0.001/kWhin2006toRMB0.019/kWhin2016(Figure1).AtRMB0.019/kWh,thesurchargerepresenteda3.2percentpremiumontheaverageretailelectricitypriceofRMB0.611/kWh.7After2016thegovernmentsignalledthatnofurthersurcharge1Zhen-YuZhaoetal.,‘TheimpactoftheCDM(cleandevelopmentmechanism)onthecostpriceofwindpowerelectricity:AChinastudy,’Energy,69,18April2014,at/10.1016/j.energy.2013.10.050.2‘国家发展改革委关于完善风力发电上网电价政策的通知,发改价格(2009)1906号[NDRCnoticeonimprovingthefeed-intariffpolicyforwindpowergenerationNDRCPricingNo.1906],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,20July2009,at/xxgk/zcfb/tz/200907/t20090727_965206.html.3‘关于完善太阳能光伏发电上网电价政策的通知,发改价格[2011]1594号[Noticeonimprovingthefeed-intariffpolicyforsolarPVpowergenerationNDRCPricingNo94],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,24July2011,at/2011-08/01/c_131097437.htm.LiJunfengetalAstudyonthepricingpolicyofwindpower,’ChinaRenewableEnergyIndustryAssociation,GreenpeaceInternational,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil,2012,at/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Report-wind-power-price-policy-china.pdf;‘TheGermanfeed-intariff,’FuturePolicy,accessed31May2023at/climate-stability/renewable-energies/the-german-feed-in-tariff.5‘2019Q1&2windpowerinstallationsandproductionbyprovince,’ChinaEnergyPortal,26July2019,at/en/2019-q2-wind-power-installations-and-production-by-province/;‘2015-2020年中国弃风弃光率,’GokuResearch,12January2020,at/chart/21742.html.6YukiYu,‘HowtoharvestfromChina’srenewableassetsales:Subsidy-not-receivablethebiggestthreat,’EnergyIceberg,2er7Retailpriceof¥0.611/kWhbasedon‘我国电价的国际比较分析[Chinaelectricitypriceinternationalcomparisonanalysis],’StateownedAssetsSupervisionandAdministrationCommissionoftheStateCouncil23March2020,at/n16582853/n16582883/c17715327/content.html.Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.2‘5428154281increaseswerelikely.8Asaresult,thesurchargedeficitcontinuedtogrow,reachingacumulativeRMB400billionby2021,withfollow-onimpactsonrenewableenergyequipmentprovidersandfinancingcostsforrenewableenergyprojects.9Figure1:Chinarenewableenergysurchargelevelsovertime,2006–2023,RMB/kWhRMB/kWh0.019 Source:OIES,basedondatafromtheChinaNationalEnergyAdministration.8‘IIGF观点|我国绿证交易现状分析及未来展望,’Envirunion,8March2022,at/newsinfo-33592.html;ChangSu源企业由于可再生能源补贴被拖欠濒临倒闭，困局将如何破解？[Renewableenergycompaniesareonthevergeofbankruptcyduetoarrearsofrenewableenergysubsidies.Howwillthedilemmaberesolved?],’SolarOfWeek,13August2018,at/2018-08/ART-260006-8440-30256761.html.WangZhixuan策评述及改革建议[WangZhixuan:China’sgreenpowermarketpolicyandreformsuggestions],’ChinaElectricityCouncil,18January2023,at/upload/1/pdf/1611189701502.pdf.Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.3‘TimelineofkeypolicydevelopmentsrelatedtogreenpowerandgreencertificatesinChina2006:Introductionofrenewableenergysurcharge102009:Beginningofsubsidizedfeed-intariffforwindpower112011:Beginningofsubsidizedfeed-intariffforsolarPV122015:Document#9onDeepeningReforminthePowerSector132016:Requirementforfullpurchaseofrenewableenergy,14followedbyadditionalpolicyonminimumpurchaseofcertainhours152017:LaunchofGreenElectricityCertificates162019:NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionannouncesmostsubsidizedfeed-intariffsforonshorewindwillbephasedoutbyyear-end2020172019:Approvaloffirstgridparity(unsubsidized)windandsolarPVprojects182019:Provincialrenewableenergyobligation(quota)192021,June:NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionannouncestheendofthefeed-intarifffordistributedandcentralsolarPVbytheendof2021202021,September:Cross-provincialgreenpowertransactionsannounced212022:ImplementationPlanforNewEnergyConsumptionstatesthatrenewableenergywouldnotcounttowards‘dualcontrol’targetsforenergyconsumptionandenergyintensity222023:2310‘可再生能源发电价格和费用分摊管理试行办法[Renewableenergyelectricitypriceandcostdistributionpilotpolicy],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,20January2006,at/ztzl/2006-01/20/content_165910.htm.11‘国家发展改革委关于完善风力发电上网电价政策的通知,发改价格(2009)1906号[NDRCnoticeonimprovingthefeed-intariffpolicyforwindpowergenerationNDRCPricingNo.1906],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,20July2009,at/xxgk/zcfb/tz/200907/t20090727_965206.html.12‘关于完善太阳能光伏发电上网电价政策的通知,发改价格[2011]1594号[Noticeonimprovingthefeed-intariffpolicyforsolarPVpowergenerationNDRCPricingNo94],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,24July2011,athttpwwwneagovcn011-08/01/c_131097437.htm.13‘关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见[Opinionsregardingdeepeningreformoftheelectricpowersector],’ChinaStateCouncil,March2015,at/xinwen/2015-03/09/content_2831228.htm.14‘关于做好风电、光伏发电全额保障性收购管理工作的通知[WindandPVguaranteedfullpurchasemanagementpolicynotice],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionandNationalEnergyAdministrationMay2016,at/xxgk/zcfb/tz/201605/t20160531_963079_ext.html.15‘风电、光伏保障性收购年利用小时数核定公布[Wind,PVguaranteedpurchasehourspublished],’XinhuaNet,1June2016,at/article-7249-1.html.16‘三部门关于试行可再生能源绿色电力证书核发及自愿认购交易制度的通知[NoticeonthreeministriesissuingpilotrenewableenergygreenelectricitycertificatesissuanceandpurchaseinstitutionsNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,MinistryofFinance,NationalEnergyAdministration,3February2017,at/xinwen/2017-/content_5164836.htm.17‘国家发展改革委关于完善风电上网电价政策的通知[Noticeonimprovingwindfeed-intariffpolicy],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,24May2019,at/xxgk/zcfb/tz/201905/t20190524_962453.html.门关于公布2019年第一批风电、光伏发电平价上网项目的通知[Noticeontwoministriesapprovalof2019batchofwindandPVgridparityprojectsNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionandNationalEnergyAdministration,23May2019,at/xinwen/2019-05/23/content_5393967.htm.19‘关于建立健全可再生能源电力消纳保障机制的通知发改能源〔2019〕807号[Noticeontheestablishmentandimprovementofasafeguardmechanismforrenewableelectricityconsumption],NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionandNationalEnergyAdministration,10May2019,at/auto87/201905/t20190515_3662.htm.20‘关于2021年新能源上网电价政策有关事项的通知[Noticeonthe2021newenergyfeed-intariffpolicyandrelatedprograms],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionJune1,at/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202106/t20210611_1283088.html.21‘我国绿色电力交易试点正式启动——绿电消费有了’中国方案’[Chinagreenelectricitytradingpilotkicksoff,greenpowerhasa“Chinesesolution”],’People’sGovernmentofChina,9September2021,at/xinwen/2021-09/09/content_5636363.htm.22‘促进绿色消费实施方案[Implementationplanforpromotinggreenconsumption],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,21January2021,at/xwdt/tzgg/202201/t20220121_1312525.html.23‘关于做好可再生能源绿色电力证书全覆盖工作促进可再生能源电力消费的通知[NoticeonCompletingWorktoEnableGreenCertificatestoFullyCoverRenewableEnergyandPromoteRenewableEnergyConsumption],’ChinaNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionAugust2023,at/web/iteminfo.jsp?id=20256Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.4‘Topreventanincreaseinsurchargedeficits,thecentralgovernmentplacedvariouslimitsonthewindandsolarcapacitydifferentprovincescouldaddtothegridunderthefeed-intariff.24Feed-intarifflevelsfornewprojectsweresteadilyreduced,and—ultimately—subsidizedfeed-intariffsforonshorewindandsolarPVwerephasedout,startingin2020.OnshorewindandcentralizedsolarPVplantscontinuetobesupportedbyvariouspolicies,particularlythe2019gridparityprogramme,whichprovidednewwindandsolarPVprojectswith20-yearnegotiatedpowerpurchaseagreements,providedtheycouldofferpricesatorbelowprevailinggridtariffs.25Suchprojectsdonotreceivethesubsidizedfeed-intariff,buttheproblemofthefeed-intariffdeficitremains,giventhatolderprojectscontinuetogenerateelectricitythatqualifiesforfeed-intariffpayments.26Further,recognizingthatsomeprovinceshadnotfulfilledthemandatorypurchasehoursrequirements—arequirementadoptedbyNEAtopreventarbitrarycurtailmentofwindandsolarinfavourofothergenerationsources—thecentralgovernmentreducedtheobligationofprovincestopaysubsidizedfeed-intariffsforolderprojects,specifyingthatprovinceswouldonlybeexpectedtopayfeed-intariffsubsidiesforalimitednumberof‘minimumoperatinghours’.27TheseminimumsweredefinedinJune2016,whentheminimumpurchasewassetas1,800–2,000hoursperyearforwindenergyand1,300–1,500hoursperyearforsolar.28Foryears,someprovincesfloutedeventhereducedminimumoperatinghoursrequirementsandpreventedrenewablesourcesfromsellingpowerbeyondobligatoryminimums.29In2020,theMinistryofFinanceclarifiedthatfeed-intariffswouldbepaidinmostprovincesaccordingtoacalculationof‘reasonablelifetimeoperatinghours’,basedonthefourwindresourceclassesandthreesolarresourceclassesestablishedforwindandsolarfeed-intariffs.30Thereasonableoperatinghourslistedinthepolicyworkouttoacapacityfactorbetween21percentand27percentforwind,andbetween12percentand17percentforsolar.Thesepolicieson‘guaranteed’,‘minimum’,and‘reasonable’operatinghoursencouragedprovincestosetupadditionalmarketsforselling‘excess’renewableenergyproductionbeyondtheseamounts,includingviainterprovincialtrading.Thenumberssetforminimumpurchase,andlaterforreasonableoperatinghours,effectivelycreatedagreaterincentiveforwindenergytosellintopowermarketsbylimitingfeed-intariffpayments.Nationally,in2021windproducedfor2,246hours,oracapacityfactorof25percent,withsomeprovincesabovea29percentcapacityfactor.Forsolar,thenationalaveragewas1,161hours,a13percentcapacityfactor,withsomeprovincesabove1,500hours(18percentcapacityfactor).31Inotherwords,theaveragewindpowerplantproduced10percentmoreelectricitythantheminimumpurchaserequirement,andtheaveragesolarplantproducedaboutthesameamountofelectricityastheminimumpurchaserequirement.Fewerprovinces,however,exceededthereasonableoperatinghoursstandard,andyear-to-yearchangesinoutputlikelymeanprovincesthatexceedthisstandardinoneyearwillnot24See,forexample,thelimitsplacedonvariousprovincesin2018in‘国家能源局关于发布2018年度风电投资监测预警结果的通知,’NationalEnergyAdministration,5March2018,at:4601/law?fn=chl543s485.txt.25‘国家发展改革委国家能源局关于积极推进风电光伏发电无补贴平价上网有关工作的通知,发改能源[2019]19号[NDRCandNEAnoticeonpromotingwindandPVgridintegrationwithoutsubsidiesNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionandNationalEnergyAdministration,7January2019,at/xxgk/zcfb/tz/201901/t20190109_962365.html.WangZhixuan化政策评述及改革建议[WangZhixuan:China’sgreenpowermarketpolicyandreformsuggestions],’ChinaElectricityCouncil,18January2023,at/upload/1/pdf/1611189701502.pdf.27‘关于做好风电、光伏发电全额保障性收购管理工作的通知:最低保障收购年利用小时数核定表[NoticeonwindandPVfullpurchaserequirementMinimumobligationonpurchasehourstable],’NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,1June2016,at/xinwen/2016-06/01/content_5078698.htm.28‘风电、光伏保障性收购年利用小时数核定公布[Wind,PVguaranteedpurchasehourspublished],’XinhuaNet,1June2016,at/article-7249-1.html.29‘刘汉元代表：落实可再生能源保障性收购和优先上网政策[LiuHanyuan:Fullyimplementrenewableguaranteedpurchaseandprioritydispatchpolicies],’SolarOfWeek,5March2021,at/2021-03/ART-260006-8440-8119.html.30‘财政部：按合理利用小时数核定可再生能源发电项目补贴资金额度[MinistryofFinance:SubsidypaymentstorenewableswillbebasedonaprojectsreasonableoperatinghourscalculationXinlangCaijing,21October2020,athttpsbaijiahaobaiducomsid22887191774130.31‘国家能源局举行新闻发布会发布2021年可再生能源并网运行情况等并答问[NEAholdspressconferencetoissue2021renewableintegrationstatisticsandrespondtoquestionsNationalEnergyAdministration29January2022,at/xinwen/2022-01/29/content_5671076.htm.Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors’soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.5‘exceeditinallyears.AccordingtoanunweightedaverageofoperatinghoursstatisticsforwindandsolarPVb