全球风能大会-从本地风电到全球出口枢纽

INDIAWINDENERGYMARKETOUTLOOK2023-2027

GWEC

GLOBALWINDENERGYCOUNCIL

FROMLOCALWINDPOWERTOGLOBALEXPORTHUB

GWEC.NET

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Attribution

Fromlocalwindpowertoglobalexporthub:Indiawindenergymarketoutlook2023-2027.GlobalWindEnergyCouncil

andMEC+,2023.

Authors

SidharthJain(MEC+);SwarnimSrivastava(MEC+);DishaSodani(MEC+)

FengZhao(GWEC);MartandShardul(GWEC);FrancisJayasurya(GWEC);AnjaliLathigara(GWEC);JoyceLee(GWEC)

ReportDesign

AspireDesign,NewDelhi

Imagecredits

GWECandpartners

Acknowledgements

Weexpressourappreciationforprovidinginsightsandindustryperspectivestothisreporttothefollowingorganisations:

DafaGroup;Danhydra;GERenewableEnergy;KKWindSolutions;Nibewind;NissensCoolingSolutions:Resolux;Rewair;

SynergyGreen;TPI;VenaEnergy;WEG;WindarRenovables

GWEC.NET3

4Fromlocalwindpowertoglobalexporthub:IndiaWindEnergyMarketOutlook2023-2027

AboutMEC+

MEC+workswithgovernment

entitiestobuildastrongcommercialunderstandingofareasrelatedto

windpower.WorkingwithGWECasaknowledgepartneronIndia,MEC+publishestheannualwindpower

marketoutlookandengagesinmulti-stakeholderdiscussionstopromotewindpower.

OurclientsincludethelargestglobalwindOEMs,utilities,oilandgas

companies,Supplychainplayers,Equityfunds,andIndependent

ServiceProviders.

MEC+,alsoknownasMEC

Intelligence,isaspecialistconsulting

firmfocusedonthewindand

renewablessectorforthelast10

years.MEC+comprisesahighly

skilledteamofconsultantswith

adeepunderstandingofturbine

technology,integrationopportunities

withbattery,hydrogen,projectsupply

chainsinoffshoreandonshorewind,

powermarketdesign,financing

/bidding/PPAstructuringand

regulatorymarket.

MEC+engageswithassetowners

andsupplychaincompaniesontheir

investmentandgrowthdecisions.

Thesupportprovidedextendsfrom

buildingbusinessplans,identification

andmitigationofrisks,andmanaging

innovationandsalesprocessesat

clientorganisations.InIndia,MEC+

hassupportedmultipleacquisitions

inthemarketonbothsupplychain

andassetplatforms.MEC+also

offersbiddingsupportandstrategy

buildingforIndia.

Forfurtherqueries,pleasevisit

AboutGWEC

TheGlobalWindEnergyCouncil

(GWEC)istheglobaltrade

associationforthewindpower

industry.Ourmissionistoensurethatwindpowerestablishesitselfastheanswertotoday’senergychallenges,providingsubstantialenvironmentalandeconomicbenefits.Wework

closelywithnationalgovernments,policymakersandinternational

institutionstogivethemtransparentinformationaboutthebenefitsandpotentialofwindpower,enablingthemtomakeinformeddecisionsaboutnationalenergypolicies.

ThemembersofGWECrepresent

over1,500companies,organisationsandinstitutionsinmorethan80

countries.Ourmembersarealsoallofthenationalwindindustrytrade

associations,frombothestablishedandemergingmarkets,including

theworld’slargestmarketsoftheUS,alltheEuropeanmarkets,IndiaandChina.

GWECisactivelyengagedwith

emergingmarketstounlocktheir

windpotentialwithprovensuccesses

inLatinAmerica,Africa,Indiaand

alsoSoutheastAsia.GWECalso

worksatthehighestinternational

politicalleveltocreateabetterpolicy

environmentforwindpower.Working

withtheUNFCCC,REN21,theIEA,

internationalfinancialinstitutions,the

IPCCandIRENA,GWECadvocates

forpoliciestohelpwindpowerreach

itsfullpotentialinaswideavarietyof

marketsaspossible.

GWECIndiawasestablishedin2020

asasingleadvocacyandresearch

bodyrepresentingtheentirevalue

chainofIndia’swindindustry.GWEC

Indiaworkscloselywithgovernment

stakeholders,companiesand

adjacenttechnologiestoaccelerate

themomentumaroundwindpower

developmentinIndiaandsupport

thecountryinachievingitsambitious

renewableenergytargets.

Forfurtherqueriespleasevisitorcontactfrancis.jayasurya@.

GWEC.NET7

Contents

Tables,FiguresandBoxes8

Abbreviations9

Definitions11

Foreword13

ExecutiveSummary21

1.India’swindenergysector:Background25

2.India’swindpipeline29

3.Wind’spositioninIndia’senergytransition33

4.Lookingaheadtooffshorewinddevelopment39

5.TheonshorewindoutlookinIndia:2023-202741

6.ExpandingtheIndiansupplychainfortheexportmarket45

7.Risinguptoglobalsupplychainopportunities51

8.Conclusionandrecommendationsforpolicymakers61

Appendix67

Tables,FiguresandBoxes

Table1:OnshorewinddemandandnacellesupplybenchmarkbetweenCY2023toCY203046

Table2:Standardtaxesforwindturbinemanufacturing-IndiavsChina58

Figure

1:YoYonshorewind,solarandhybridinstallationsbetweenCY2015toCY2022

26

Figure

2:Standaloneonshorewind&hybridprojects-CentraltendersfromCY2019toCY2023

30

Figure

3:Standaloneonshorewind&hybrid-StatetendersbetweenCY2019toCY2023

31

Figure

4:LCoEforstandaloneonshorewindandsolarprojectsinIndiabetween2020to2028

34

Figure

5:StatusofgridavailabilityforonshorewindbyCY2027andCY2030

36

Figure

6:TotalRPOdemandbetweenFY2023toFY2027

37

Figure

7:IndiaOffshorewind-differentmodelsandplannedtrajectory

40

Figure

8:ForecastYoYnewonshorewindinstallationsinIndiabetween2023to2027

43

Figure

9:YoYglobalwindinstallationbetweenCY2015to2022andforecastbetweenCY2023to2027

45

Figure

10:Globalwindkeycomponentsupplychainoverviewin2022

47

Figure

11:OEMwiseonshorewindinstallationdoneinCY2021andCY2022inIndia

48

Figure

12:Globalproducttechnologyroadmapforonshorewindturbinesbytop10countriesasperforecastinstallations

52

Figure

13:CostrangeofChinesevsIndianonshoreturbines

54

Box1:USCallsforCountervailingDutyonIndianWindEnergyOEMs53

Box2:Capitalexpendituresonmaterialsforonshoreandoffshorewind55

Box3:CostdifferentiationbetweenIndianandChinesecastingmanufacturing5

6

8Fromlocalwindpowertoglobalexporthub:IndiaWindEnergyMarketOutlook2023-2027

Abbreviations

AMPC

AD

ALMM

BCD

CY

CUF

CAPEX

CEA

CTUIL

CMCT

C&I

CAGR

CCDC

COP

CIT

CVD

CRMA

DISCOM

EU

AdvancedManufacturingProductionCredit

Antidumpingduty

ApprovedListofModelsand

Manufacturers

BasicCustomDuty

CalendarYear

CapacityUtilisationFactor

CapitalExpenditure

CentralElectricityAuthority

CentralTransmissionUtilityofIndiaLimited

CityMaintenance&ConstructionTaxCommercial&Industrial

CompoundAnnualGrowthRate

ConcessionalCustomDutyExemptionCertificate

ConferenceofParties

CorporateIncomeTax

CountervailingDuty

CriticalRawMaterialsAct

DistributionCompany

EuropeanUnion

FY

GW

GWEC

GST

GUVNL

IPP

INR

IRA

IEA

IGST

ISTS

kWh

LATAM

LCOE

L1

MW

MEIS

MNRE

MOP

NIWE

NTPC

OW

FinancialYear

Gigawatt

GlobalWindEnergyCouncil

GoodsandServicesTax

GujaratUrjaVikasNigamLimitedIndependentPowerProducer

IndianRupee

InflationReductionAct

InternationalEnergyAgency

InterstateGoodsandServicesTaxInter-StateTransmissionSystem

Kilowatt-hour

LatinAmerica

LevelisedCostofEnergy

Lowestprice

Megawatt

MerchandiseExportsfromIndia

Scheme

MinistryofNew&RenewableEnergyMinistryofPower

NationalInstituteofWindEnergy

NationalThermalPowerCorporationOffshoreWind

OEM

PLF

PPA

PGCIL

PLI

RoDTEP

RE

RPO

RfS

RLMM

RTC

SECI

UK

USA

UMCT

VAT

WTG

YoY

OriginalEquipmentManufacturer

PlantLoadFactor

PowerPurchaseAgreement

PowerGridCorporationofIndia

Limited

ProductionLinkedIncentive

RemissionofDutiesorTaxeson

ExportProductsScheme

RenewableEnergy

RenewablepurchaseObligation

RequestforSelection

RevisedListofModels&

Manufacturers

Round-the-clock

SolarEnergyCorporationofIndia

Limited

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStatesofAmerica

UrbanMaintenance&Construction

Tax

ValueAddedTax

WindTurbineGenerator

YearonYear

GWEC.NET9

10Fromlocalwindpowertoglobalexporthub:IndiaWindEnergyMarketOutlook2023-2027

Definitions

Decarbonisation

‘Decarbonisation’tendstorefertotheprocessofreducing‘carbonintensity’,loweringtheamount

CalendarYear

TheperiodoftimebeginningonJanuary1andendingonDecember31ofeachyear.

ofgreenhousegasemissionsproducedbytheburningoffossilfuels.Generally,thisinvolves

FinancialYear

FYisa12-monthaccountingperiodstartingfromApril1andendingonMarch31ofeachyear.

decreasingCO2outputperunitofelectricitygenerated.

Basecase

scenario

Thebasecasereferstoafundamentalor

standardscenariothatisusedasastartingpoint

HybridProjects/

Energyprojectsthatusetwoormoreenergy

orreferenceforanalysis,decision-making,or

tenders

sourcesforpowergeneration.Forexample,SECIHybridProjectsusesolarandwindincombination

evaluation.Itrepresentsthemostlikelyorrealisticsituationbasedontheavailableinformationand

NetZero

Atargetofcompletelynegatingtheamountof

greenhousegasesproducedbyhumanactivity,tobeachievedbyreducingemissions.

assumptions.Thebasecaseservesasabenchmarkagainstwhichotherscenariosorvariationscanbecomparedorassessed.

Renewable

UnderSection86(1)(e)oftheElectricityAct2003

Ambitiouscase

Anambitiouscasescenarioreferstoasituation

Purchase

andtheNationalTariffPolicy2006,Renewable

scenario

orprojectionthatassumesfavourableorpositive

Obligation(RPO)

purchaseobligation(RPO),isamechanismby

whichtheobligatedentitiesareobligedtoa

purchasecertainpercentageofelectricityfrom

RenewableEnergysources,asapercentageofthe

outcomes.Itisabest-caseorhighlypositive.It

representsanidealisticviewofthefuturewiththebeliefthatconditionswillbehighlyfavourableandresultinthebestpossibleoutcomes.

totalconsumptionofelectricity.

Conservative

Aconservativecasescenarioreferstoasituationor

Distribution

Alicenseeauthorisedtooperateandmaintaina

casescenario

projectionthatassumesunfavourableornegative

Licensee

distributionsystemforsupplyingelectricitytotheconsumersinhisareaofsupply.

outcomes.Itrepresentsacautiousorscepticalviewofthefuture,withthebeliefthatcircumstanceswill

SupplyChain

Asupplychainisanetworkofindividualsand

companieswhoareinvolvedincreatingaproductanddeliveringittotheendusercustomersorotherbusinesses.

bechallengingandresultintheleastfavourableoutcomes.

Pipeline/

Pipeliningisanongoing,continuousprocessin

pipelining

whichnewinstructions,ortasks,areaddedtothepipelineandcompletedtasksareremovedataspecifiedtime.

12Fromlocalwindpowertoglobalexporthub:IndiaWindEnergyMarketOutlook2023-2027

Foreword

Astemperaturesreachrecord-highsaroundtheworldthisyear,there

isgatheringmomentumamong

governmentsfortheglobalenergytransition.Globalrenewableenergycapacitymusttriplebytheendof

thedecadetoatleast11TWtokeepa1.5°Cwindowalive.Thiscallsforanunprecedentedaccelerationof

large-scalewindandsolarpowertomitigatethemostharmfuleffectsofclimatechange.International

leadershipandcooperationwillbecriticaltoachievingthis2030goal.

Thisyear,IndiapresidesovertheG20groupingofthelargesteconomies

oftheworldrepresenting85%of

globalGDPand80%ofglobal

carbonemissions.Inthisrole,Indiacanconvenecountriesaround

thesharedneedtoscaleupwind

energy,whichisalreadytransformingcommunitiesaroundtheworldwithcleanelectricity,greenjobsandan

influxofpublic/privatecapitalto

propeleconomicgrowth.Itmustbe

clearlyunderstoodthatrenewablesarenotonlythebestsolutionwehavetofightclimatechange,butalsoto

drivesustainabledevelopmentandindustrialpolicy.

Globalleadershipintheenergy

transitionmustbeginathomefor

India.Alreadythefourth-largest

windmarketintheworld,Indiahastremendouspotentialtoexpanditsdomesticwindcapacity.High-leveltargetshavebeensettoreach500GWofrenewableenergycapacityby2030,including140GWofwindenergy.Butrecentannualgrowthhasbeendampened,averaging1.74

GWoverthelastfiveyears,duetobottlenecksaroundgrid,downwardpricepressureandlandavailability.

Asthisreportdemonstrates,

policycorrectionscouldenablean

ambitiousscenarioofmorethan26

GWinwindinstallationsoverthenextfiveyearsthrough2027.Authoritiesarealreadytakingpromisingsteps

torealiseafasterpaceofgrowth,

suchasrevisingthewindtender

mechanismfromareverse-bidding

modeltoaclosed-envelopemodel

earlierthisyear,andpublishinga

clearroadmapforannualauctionsin

2024splitbyagencyandquarter.

ThestrengthofIndia’sdomestic

marketwillinturndeterminewhetherthecountryemergesasapower

playerinthewindindustry’sglobal

supplychain.Giventheexpansive

growthforwindpowerahead,GWECforeseesthatglobalsupplychain

constraintswillmaterialisefrom2026onward,duetoagapbetweenthe

sector’sproductioncapacityand

forecastdeploymentpipelines.IndiacanplayacriticalroleheretorampupmanufacturingandexportofwindcomponentstosupplytheindustryinAsiaandbeyond.

Meanwhile,ongoinginternational

dynamics–geopoliticaltensions,

aninflationaryenvironmentand

BenBackwell

CEO,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil

GWEC.NET13

thelessonslearnedfromthepricespikesandbottlenecksofthe

pandemic–havepromptedcountries

toundertakeastrategicshiftto

bolsterlocalrenewableenergy

supplychains.Industrialpackages

liketheUSInflationReductionAct

andtheEUGreenIndustrialDeal

aredesignedtostrengthenlocal

supplychaininvestmentandre-

shoreproductionactivity.Againstthisbackdropofevents,Indiahasplentyofcomparativeadvantagesasawindindustryhub,suchasanexisting

manufacturingbase,favourablelocationforexportandrelativelyattractivecostoflabour.

ButtocapitaliseonIndia’s

windpotentialathomeandits

opportunitiestobecomeaglobal

supplychainpower,afewkeyactionswillbeneeded:

1.EnablethegreenopenaccessmarketfortheC&Isegment,

toensureeconomicroutesfor

energy-intensiveuserstoaccessgreenelectricity.

2.Prioritisetheresolutionofoperationalandgrid-relatedchallengeswithsupportfor

bothISTSandnon-ISTSprojectsbystategovernmentsthroughawin-winpartnershipamongkeystakeholders.

3.Ensurecomplianceofthe

windRPOtosupporttheuptakeofwindpower,andaggregate

trajectoriessetbystatestooveralltargetsofthecountry.

4.Considerlogisticscorridorsandindexationtoeasesupplychainchallengesinproject

implementation,andaccount

forcommoditypricefluctuationtosupportthetimelyandcost-efficientcommissioningof

projects.

5.Promotedomesticinnovationinwindmanufacturing

throughinnovationandR&Dgrants.Atargetedproductionlinkedincentive(PLI)schemeforthewindsectorcould

alsoincentiviseinvestmentincomponentstoincreasetheverticalintegrationofthe

domesticmanufacturingindustryandimprovequalityoflocally

suppliedcomponents.

6.Lowerimportdutieson

rawmaterialandwork-in-

progressgoodsforthewind

sectortocreateamoreregionallyandgloballycompetitivecost

ofmanufacturingforIndiain

thewindindustry.Itwouldalsohelptoeasedocumentation

andapprovalsfortheduty

drawbackschemeandleverageFreeTradeAgreements(FTAs)todesignandimplementwindexportscorridorsfordomesticmanufacturers.

7.Nurtureanoffshorewind

ecosysteminGujaratandTamilNadutosetthefoundationto

achievetheGovernmentofIndia’sseabedleasetendertrajectoryof37GWinthisdecade.

Thisyear’sreporttheme–“Fromlocalwindpowertoglobalexporthub”–

conveysthestrategicopportunitieswhichIndiacanseizeifenhanced

governmentambitionandastrongplanforimplementationareinplace.Scalingupthetransitionathomecanthendemonstratethetransformativesocial,environmental,industrialandeconomicbenefitsbroughtbywindandrenewableenergytootherG20membersandcountries.

Iheartilyexpresscongratulations

totheGWECandMEC+teams

forthistimelyandrelevantreport.

Finally,IextendGWEC’ssupporttotheGovernmentofIndiatohosta

successfulG20Leaders’Summitlaterthisyear,andrealiseitsrenewable

energyambitionsinthisdecade.

14Fromlocalwindpowertoglobalexporthub:IndiaWindEnergyMarketOutlook2023-2027

Foreword

Astheplanetcontinuestowarm

andextremeweatherconditions

becomemorefrequent,theneed

forradicalcollectiveactionstobendtheemissionscurvecannotbe

emphasizedenough.Inthisspirit,

thethemeofIndia’sG20Presidency,“VasudhaivaKutumbakam”or“OneEarth·OneFamily·OneFuture”,isanimplicitmessagetobuildgreaterglobalconsensusforclimateaction,includingclimatechangemitigation.

AspertheIRENAEnergyTransitionsOutlook2023,inthe1.5degree

scenario,globalinstalledpower

generationcapacitymusthave77%and94%ofrenewableenergyin

2030and2050respectively.The

globaldeploymentofrenewable

energysourcesincludingwind

energymustincreasemulti-fold.

IRENAhasprojected2040GWof

onshorewindand500GWofoffshorewinddeploymentbytheendofthis

decade.EarlierGWEC’sGlobal

WindReport2023,emphasizedthe

historicmilestoneof1TWofglobal

windpowerdeploymentreached

thisyear.AnotherTWislikelyto

beachievedwithinthisdecade.

Translatingtheseprojectionsinto

realityimpliesproactivepolicymakingthatwillenablefast-pacedtendering,commissioningofprojectsanda

greatersupplychainreliance.

UndertheleadershipofHon’blePrimeMinisterNarendraModi

Ji,Indiahasundertakendecisive

measuresforenhancingtheshareofrenewableenergyinthegenerationmix,includingwindenergywhich

currentlyaccountsforslightlymorethan10%ofthecountry’soverall

powergenerationcapacity.In2023,thecentralgovernmentnotified

atrajectorytoauction10GWof

annualwindcapacityforthenext

fewyearsthisdecade.TheMinistryofPowernotified“Guidelinesfor

TariffBasedCompetitiveBiddingProcessforProcurementofFirm

andDispatchablePowerfromGrid

ConnectedRenewableEnergy

PowerProjectswithEnergyStorage

Systems”inJune2023.Thecentre

alsoreleasedaroadmapfor

strengtheningtheavailabilityofthe

gridnetworkforrenewableenergy

capacityadditioninthisdecade.Itis

worthcommendinghowtheMinistry

ofNewandRenewableEnergy

(MNRE)hasconsistentlybeenholdingmonthlymeetingswithcentral,state

andindustrystakeholderstoaddress

issuesaswellastotakefeedbackin

ordertoacceleratedeploymentof

windenergyprojects.

ThiseditionoftheIndiaWindEnergy

MarketOutlook2023-2027stresses

theneedforacceleratedeffortsby

theindustryandthegovernment

toachievethe2030target.As

comparedtothe140GWtarget,

severalagencieshaveprojectedthe

likelihoodof100GWofcumulative

capacityduetovariousreasons

thathavebeendiscussedinthis

edition.TheOutlookalsopresses

SumantSinha

ChairpersonGWECIndia,and

Founder,ChairmanandCEO,

ReNew

GWEC.NET15

foragreaterbalancebetween

manufacturingfordomesticand

exportmarkets.Thereisaneedfor

facilitatingtargetedincentives,for

exampletothecastingssegment,

forqualityupgradationaswellas

capacityenhancement.Global

WindEnergyCouncil’sGlobalWind

Report2023hasalreadyindicated

likelihoodofsupplychainshortfalls

intheUSandEurope,andthatthe

sparecapacityintheindustrybeingexhaustedby2026iftimelycorrectivemeasuresarenotundertakenthroughconsensus-building.

IcongratulatetheGWECIndiaand

theMEC+teamsforyetanother

enrichingandrelevanteditionofthe

Outlookwhichspellsoutpriorities

forthewindsectorinIndiaand

presentsacomprehensivepictureof

interventionsthatmustbeconvened

collaborativelytodrivesub-national,

national,regionalandglobalclean

energytransitionpriorities.

Arenewedpolicyenvironment,

likelihoodofdiversificationofwind

actionsacrosshigh-potentialstates

andathrustondecarbonizationinthe

C&Isegmentsarecertainlyreasons

forrenewedoptimism.Together,

windenergycapacityadditionand

scale-upofmanufacturingcapacities

shallfurtherdrivejobcreationand

investmentopportunitiesinthe

country.

16Fromlocalwindpowertoglobalexporthub:IndiaWindEnergyMarketOutlook2023-2027

Foreword

India’swindpowerindustryis

poisedtoharnessanumberof

opportunities.Theprospectsof

growthinthedomesticmarketand

shiftintheinternationalsupplychainrequirements,provideanopportunityforIndiancompaniestoincreasetheirparticipationintheglobalsupply

chain.

Domesticvolumesareontheup,

andpolicymeasuresareinlinewithadvocatedchanges

In2022,theIndianmarketexhibitedarobustexpansionwiththeawardof4.