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WENEED
TOTALK
ABOUTGENERATIONSApril2023IPSOSVIEWSCONTENTSUnderstandinggenerationsINTRODUCTION:CONTEXT:GENERATION
MYTHS
ANDDEMOGRAPHICREALITIESPage08WHYGENERATIONALANALYSIS
MATTERSPage12PEAKPOPULATION:PREPARING
FOR
THEFALLPage18A
TOPIC
OFCONVERSATION:HOWDOPEOPLE
TALKABOUTGENERATIONS?Page25GENERATION
QUESTIONS:ISSUES
TO
THINK
ABOUTPage31HOW
TO
TELL
AMYTHFROM
AREALITYINUKGENERATIONSWESTERNGENERATIONALCONCEPTSDON’T
APPLYINSOUTH
AFRICAPage43WHY
WHERE
YO
ULIVEMATTERS
INUNDERSTANDINGGENERATIONS
ININDIAPage51Page38SUPER-AGEINGINPOST-PANDEMIC
SOUTHKOREAPage56POPULATION
BUST:HOWITALY
ISFINALLYFACING
ITSGREYRHINOPage62MEXICO:FROM
A
TEENAGECOUNTRY
TO
AN
ADULTONEIN
ACENTURYPage67Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations2IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoFOREWORDMarketingisoverrunwithstereotypes,hottakesandclichés.Someofthemostenduringinthefirsttwodecadesofthiscenturycentredonthepost-1980millennials,whowere
proclaimedasanewgenerationthatwouldcompletelydisruptbusiness.Nolonger.
Millennialsare
firmlyoutoffashionthesedays.ThebuzznowcentresonGenerationZ,born
post-1995andnowenteringtheworkforceinsignificantnumbers.Yet
therhythmofthechatteraboutgenerationsremainsthesame.Justlikethemillennialsbeforethem,articlesaboutGenZbeing“amajority”,demanding“fundamentallydifferent
things”atworkfrom
oldergenerations,orthattheirviewsontheenvironmentare“completelydifferent
toeveryoneelse”are
inabundance.BenPageGlobalChiefExecutive,IpsosBen.Page@IIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations3IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoButdecadesofresearch
showthatmuchofwhatpassesasstartlingnewinsightsaboutgenerationalchangecanbemisleadingorwrong.Fig.1
–GenerationsinthenewsLet’s
takeasanexamplethelineaboutGenerationZalreadybeinga“newmajority”.Aquicklookattheactualdatarevealsthat,evenifweincludedALLadultsintheworldtodayaged0-15inourcategorisation,weonlygetto40%ofthepopulation!Andtocontinuewithtoday’s
prevailing
GenZ
narrative,thisisa
group
whoare
oftenmadeouttobeobsessedabout‘brandpurpose’andclimatechange–
butit’s
actuallyolderpeoplethatare
more
likelytoboycottbrands.Meanwhile,ourIpsosGlobalTrends
research
tellsusthatallagegroupsare
equallyworriedaboutclimatechange.Whatyoungpeopleare
more
worriedaboutare
thoseveryimmediateissueslikelowincomesandhousing.Oftenpunditsandcommentatorsmaketwomistakes.FirsttheygetconfusedbetweengenuinecohorteffectswhichIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations4IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicodistinguishagenerationuniquely,
and“lifestageeffects”and“periodeffects”whichallgenerationspassthrough-e.g.youngpeopleofallgenerationstendtobemore
likelytogoout,exerciseetcthanolderpeople.Secondthewholeideathateveryoneborn
acrossa15-yearperiodwillbeidentical,orverysimilar,
itselfdoesnotworkbeyondsomebasicgeneralisations.Thisiswhatweunpickhere.Betteranalysiscanhelpusallseparatethemythsfromrealities.Inthisspirit,wehopethisreport
provides
ideas,informationandevensomeprovocation.
We’re
lookingforward
todiscussingourresearch
–
anditsimplications–
withyou.Happyreading!Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations5IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoAT
AGL
ANCE36countriesare
alreadyseeingtheir52%believeemployersvalueunder50smore
thanover50svs10%whobelieveover50sare
more
valuedBytheendofthecentury:populationdecline53%
63%SouthKorea’s
populationofUSBabyBoomersfeeltheyhada‘better’lifethantheirparentsisexpectedtofallby53%37%
47%
>2/5Overtwo-fifthsthinkbrandsItaly’s
populationisofTurkish
GenXersfeeltheyhada
‘better’lifethantheirparentsvs27%ofBabyBoomersandadvertisers(43%&41%,expectedtofallby37%respectively)valueunder50smoreIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations6IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoKEY
LEARNINGSA
lotofwhatiswrittenabout
Where
andwhen
We
needtoIt’s
timetoaskgenerationsis
youwereborn
getready
for
ourselvessomemisleadingorwrong
matters
populationdecline
hard
questionsYe
t
usinga
generationallensisa
reallyeffective
wayofunderstandinghowandwhysocietiesandconsumersPeopleborn
thesameyearbutinThirty-sixcountriesare
losingpopulation
•
Doweknowenoughabouthowtodifferent
placeswilloftenhavehadverydifferent
experiencesandtrajectories.already,
andmore
are
settofollowthem.Birthratesare
nowbelowreplacementratiopretty
mucheverywhere.
Urgentquestionsneedtobeaskedaround
theeconomicconsequencesofageing:theimpactoffewerworkersonthetaxmarkettotheover50s?•
Whatorder
ofimportanceshouldwereallybegivingtoGenZ?change.Thereal
taskbeingtoseparate
Considertwopeoplerespectively
bornthree
effects
thatexplainchangesamongconsumers:lifecycleeffects,periodeffects
andcohorteffects.
Ifwedothat,wecanunderstandtheinChinaandtheUnitedStatesin1973.Theformativeexperiencesoftoday’s50-year-olds,
growing
upinthe1980s,were
ratherdifferent.
Anyassertions•
Justwhat’s
happeningwithMillennialsthesedays?•
Are
GenX
abouttotakeovertheworld?receipts
thatsupportpublicservices,the
•
Whatare
thespecificdynamicsofthepresent
andpredict
thefuture
ina
more
andgeneralisationswemakeaboutimpactoffewerconsumersonspending“generations”doneedtobeconsidered
powerandtheimpactoffewercreativecarefully.
mindsonourinnovationpipelines.different
generationsinmycountry?•
Dothetermsthathavebecomesowidelyusedactuallyworkhere?meaningfulway.Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations7IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoINTRODUCTIONIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations8IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoGENERATION
MYTHSANDDEMOGRAPHICREALITIESWe
thinkthat’s
thewrong
response.We
absolutelydoneedtotalkaboutgenerations.Usingagenerationallensisaneffectivewayofunderstandinghowandwhysocietiesandconsumerschange.Thereal
taskbeingtoseparatethethree
effectsthatexplainchangesamongconsumers.Betteranalysiscanshinealightonthebigpopulationtrendsthatnow
need
First,whichpatternsare
simplelifecycleeffects–forexamplepeopletendtobemore
physicallyactiveortoshapeourthinkingaboutgenerations,datemore
whentheyare
young,andallgenerationsgochangeswhichare
notyet
gettingattention.throughthislifestage.Second,whichare
periodeffects–affectingallgenerations(suchastheCovidpandemic).Andfinally,
andmostimportantly,
whichare
cohorteffects,where
wecanseethataparticulargenerationisdifferent
from
othersatthesameageandisstayingdifferent.Ifwedothat,wecanpredictthefutureinamuchmore
meaningfulway.Someacademicsthinkweshouldstopallreferencetogenerations:acoupleofyearsagoanopenletterwassenttothePewResearchCenter,
signedby1801professorsandlecturers,callingonbusinesstoceaseusinggenerationaltermsasitgivesthemalegitimacytheydon’t
deserve.BetteranalysiscanshinealightonthebigpopulationtrendsthatnowneedtoshapeourthinkingaboutIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations9IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoFig.
2–World
population:Preparingforafallgenerations,changeswhichare
notyetgettingattention.Becausewealsoneedtotalkaboutdemographicrealities.15+0.5nincreasingnumberofcountriesaroundtheworldnowhaveamedianpopulationagewellover40.Indeed,ifwewere
producinga“GenerationalPowerIndex”,itisGenerationXandtheBabyBoomerswhowouldcomeoutontoponmanymeasures,notleastthoserelatingtofinancialresources
oreconomicandpoliticalpower.
AremarketersmissingatrickbyconcentratingtoomuchontheneedsandaspirationsofGenerationZ?8-0.5*765Thisisbeforeweturn
ourattentiontowhatisnowverymuchontheimmediatehorizon.432Fertilityratesare
nowbelowreplacementrates(2.1children)inmostpartsoftheworld.We
nowneedtoprepare
ourselvesforaworldwhichischaracterisedbypopulationdeclineratherthanpopulationgrowth.China,SouthKorea,andItalyare
justthree
ofthe41countries1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
210080%predictioninterval95%predictioninterval60sampletrajectoriesMedianObserved=/-0.5childSource:
2022UnitedNations,DESA,Populationdivision.World
PopulationProspects
2022./wpp/*
0.5overorundercurrent
replacement
fertilityrateof2.1children.
+0.5references
iftherateis2.6children,
while-0.5iftherateis1.6children.Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations10IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicocoveringamajorityoftheworld’s
population(5.4billionoutof8billion)where
it’s
happeningalready.
So,weneedtotalkaboutwhattheprospectofanEmptyPlanetmeansforbusinesses,forgovernments,forallofus–includingthegenerationstocome.2Thisreport
formspartofa
newIpsosresearch
programmetohelpusbetterunderstandthedynamicsofgenerationalanalysisanddemographicchange.We
havetriedtochallengethenaturaltemptationtomakegeneralisations,andground
ourselvesinevidence,witha
particularemphasisonunderstandingwhatishappeningontheground,
asseenthrough
thelensofa
seriesof“casestudy”countries.Fertilityrates
are
now
belowreplacement
rates
(2.1children)
inmostpartsoftheworld.
We
now
needtoprepare
ourselvesfora
world
which
ischaracterised
by
populationdeclineratherthanpopulationgrowth.Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations11IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoCONTEXTIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations12IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoWHYGENERATIONALANALYSIS
MATTERSFig.
3–DefiningthegenerationsGenerationagein2023Born
after2012GenerationAlpha*ages<11It’s
easytogetsweptupintheterminologyofgenerations,asweenthusiasticallydescribetheworldsofGenerationZ,Millennials,GenerationX,Boomers,theSilentBorn1996-2012GenerationZages11–27Generationand–comingsoon–GenerationAlpha.Born1980-95Millennialsages28–43Thesecohortnamesare
widelyusedthesedaysbyresearchersasamore
excitingversionoftheagebracketswewere
alltrainedon.Born1966-79GenerationXages44–57Born1945-65BabyBoomersButanyassertionaboutgenerationsdoesneedtobeconsideredcarefully.
We
mustbemindfulthattermslike“Millennial”carryalotmore
implicitbaggagethan“27-42-year-olds”.ages58–78Born1928-45Pre-Warages79–95192019401960198020002020Whenweusecohortnamesratherthanagegroups,weare
makingasubliminalstatementthatwebelievewhatweare
describingisacharacteristicwhichisanenduringfeatureofthegenerationunderquestion.*Nochronological
endpointhasbeensetforthisgroupSource:
IpsosIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations13IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoWhenusedwidely,
theyalsosuggestalevelofuniformity
Whenandwhereyouwerebornmattersofthoughtorbehaviouramongthegroup
whichisrarely"GenerationXismyparents’generation.Theirgrowthenvironment,educationbackground,andtheaccurate.Muchofthenarrativeongenerationshasitsroots
inanalysisfrom
theUnitedStates,aswitnessedbythelabelsweare
using,perhapsmostnotablyBabyBoomers.changesbroughttotheminthewaveofthewholeeraare
quitedifferentfrom
mine.However,
althoughyoungpeopleinthecityhavegainedbettereducationandgrowthresources,weare
stillundergoingtremendouspersonalpressure
inmodernisation.Thepressure
isnotthesameasbefore.We
squeezeinthesubway,andbendoverourphoneswearingfacemasks,aswe're
facedwiththechallengeofanewsocialenvironment.Thisistotallydifferent
from
thatinthe60s,70s,80sand90s."InsearchofdataGenerationalanalysisisnoteasy.
Notleastbecauserigorousresearch
onthistopicreliesontheavailabilityoflong-termdata.Take
theexampleofGenerationZ.Theevidencerequired
toprove
manyofthestatementsthatare
madeaboutthemisoftenjustnotavailable–sometimesbecausetheissuesthatmattertoyoungpeopletodaywere
notconsideredimportant10or20yearsago.Themore
we’velookedatthistopic,theclearerwe’vebecomeabouttheneedtobeverycautiousaboutmakingtoomanygeneralisationsaboutgenerations.We
shouldnotassumethatouranalysis,groundedinourowncountry’s
experiences,isportableandcanbeuniformlyexploredacrosstheworld.Whenyouwere
born
andwhere
youwereborn
matter.Peopleborn
thesameyearbutindifferent
placeswillButgenerationalanalysisismostcertainlyworththeeffort.
oftenhavehadverydifferent
experiencesandtrajectories.Where
wecanseegenerationaldifferences(andindeedsimilarities),theyhelpustounderstandwhatisgoingonConsidertwopeoplerespectively
born
inChinaandtheUnitedStatesin1973.Theformativeexperiencesoftoday’s–GenZ,Chinanow–andtheyalsoshinealightonhowchangehappens
50-year-olds,
growing
upinthe1980s,were
ratherdifferent.inasociety,
unlockingourabilitytoplanforthefuture.Source:
IpsosEthnographyCentre
ofExcellenceIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations14IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoGenerationX
intheUnitedStatesGenerationX,thoseaged44-57,currentlynumber65millionpeopleintheUSalone.Theyare
thefirsttoliveinfamiliesinwhichbothMomandDadworkedoutsidethe
65millionhome.By1981,whenthefirstmillennialbabieswere
beingborn,53%ofunder18shadmotherswhowere
employedorGenerationX,thoselookingforwork.
GenerationXwere
the3aged44-57,currentlyCourtesyofApple,Left1980s,Right1990schildrenwhowitnessedthischangeasnumber65millionpeopleintheUSalone.theygrew
up.Thismakesthemthefirstbabybustgenerationwithsmallerfamilies(whichdefinesthemdemographically).Theyarealsomore
likelytohavegrown
upinanurbanenvironmentthanBabyBoomerswere.
TheycameofageastheColdWar
wasendingandagainsta1990sTheyalsofoundthemselvesindirectcompetitionforeverything,includingjobsandhousing,withthebiggestgenerationinhumanhistorysofar,BabyBoomers.Butthisisoneagegroup,growingupinaveryparticularcontext.Doesthispicture,describedaseconomicbackdropwhichwasnotalways
GenerationX,workforthepeopleborncompletelyfavourable.
between1966and1979inyourcountry?CourtesyofGatorade,1992CourtesyofCalvinKlein,1992Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations15IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoBuildingblocksforanalysisWhenfacedwithanapparentdifferencebetweengenerationalcohorts,wetendtoconsiderwhythisisthecasethroughthree
lenses.010203Lifecycleeffects:People’s
orientationschangeastheyage,drivenbylifestagesorevents.Forexample,theymaytravel(domesticallyorinternationally)tofindwork,beforegettingmarriedandhavingPeriodeffects:Attitudesandbehavioursofallcohortschangeinasimilarwayoverthesameperiod.Ourresponsetothepandemiccouldfallintothiscategoryandpresentsarichseamforanalysis.Cohorteffects:Acohorthasdifferentviews,andthesestaydifferent
overtime.Theseare
perhapsthehardestforresearcherstoidentify,
butalsopotentiallythemostimpactful,helpingusdoabetterjobatpredictingfuturechange.children.People’s
incomesriseastheyget
NotonlydidCovidaffectpeoplearoundolder,
and(insomecountriesatleast),they
theworld,butitalsogeneratedalargewilltendtoaccumulatesavings.amountofattitudinalandbehaviouraldatatoexplore.Atamore
locallevel,differentcountrieswillhavetheirowndynamics.AsweshowinourSouth
Korea
analysis,
its“GenerationX”are
billedasthecountry’sfirstpost-democratisationgenerationanddisplayauniquesetofcharacteristics.Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations16IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoManyofthemisperceptions
weseeariseare
frompeoplemistakinga
periodorlifecycle
effectfora
truecohorteffect.Whenwecancarryoutthiskindofanalysiseffectively,
we
maynotbepoweringoursocietiesandeconomiesasseethatreal
shiftslikedeclineinreligiousbelieforloyaltytopoliticalparties,alongsideacceptanceofLGBTrightsinmanycountries,are
here
tostay-butthatotherapparentmuchasperceivedwisdomwouldlikeustobelieve.Take
Italyasanexample.Whenitcomestohowoldtheytrendslikedeclininghomeownershipmay(ormaynot)be
are,
the“averageItalian”isnotGenerationZ,orevenshorter-lived.aMillennial.Themedianpersonintheworld’s
eighth-largest
economyis48yearsold,whichputsthemfirmlyinthelittle-written-aboutGenerationXcategory.
Thisisagroup
thathasalotofspendingpowerandconsiderableinfluenceacrossmanyaspectsofpeople’s
lives,includingfamily,
business,andpolitics.Manyofthemisperceptionsweseeariseare
from
peoplemistakingaperiodorlifecycleeffectforatruecohorteffect.Identifyingwhatisatruecohorteffectisthereforekeytounderstandinghowagenerationmaybedifferentandwillremaindifferent
astheyage.Inthenextsections,wepickuponthesethemesandsetoutsomeofthequestionsarisingfrom
ourreview,
framedagainstthebackdropofthebigdemographicchangesunderwaywhichwillshapewhathappensnext.And,talkingofageing,weneedtobeclear,
wheneverweare
makingassertionsabouttheimplicationsofdifferentgenerations’attitudesorbehaviours,aboutthebroaderdemographiccontext.BecausetheyoungergenerationsIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations17IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoPEAKPOPULATIONIpsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations18IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoPREPARING
FORTHEFALLFig.
4–PopulationinthenewsNovember15th,2022wasthe“officialday”whentheworld’s
populationtoppedeightbillion.Ittookjust37yearsforthenumberofpeopleonearthtodoublefromthefourbillionrecorded
in1975.But,contrarytowhatyoumightthink,worldpopulationgrowthisslowingdown.Inthewords
oftheUN,“whileittooktheglobalpopulation12yearstogrow
from
seventoeightbillion,itwilltakeapproximately15years—until2037—forittoreach
ninebillion,asignthattheoverallgrowthrateoftheglobalpopulationisslowing.”Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations19IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoPopulationsuperpowers:preparingforafallAlthoughthetrajectoryisclear,
wehavebeenwitnessingsomethingofadebateaboutwhetherIndiahasalreadyovertakenChinaorwhetherthisissomethingabouttohappen.AccordingtotheUN’s
April2023release,thismilestoneissetformid-2023asIndia’s
populationexceedsthe1.42billionmarkandChina’s
startstofall.China’s
fallingfertilityratesare
nowwelldocumentedandstandat1.18,farbelowthereplacementrateof2.1.Earlierthisyear,
wesawaflurryofmediacoverageasjournalistsdescribedthenewsthatthepopulationofChinaisnowfalling,forthefirsttimein60years.38.5China’s
populationisnowageingveryfast.Themedianageofitspopulationrose
from
23.7yearsin1990to38.5in2022,and35%oftheChinesepopulationare
now50yearsoldorolder.ThemedianageofTogether,
thesetwopopulationsuperpowerscurrentlycomprise36%oftheworld’s
population.Theymayhaveverydifferent
historiesandcultures,butwhenitcomestotheirpopulationjourney,
thetwocountriesare
nowonthesametrack,albeitatdifferent
stages.China’s
populationrosefrom
23.7yearsin1990to38.5yearsin2022.35%oftheChinesepopulation
are
now
50yearsoldorolder.Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations20IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoMeanwhile,theriseinIndia’s
populationinabsolutetermshasdrawnattentionawayfrom
itsownfallingfertilityrates.Indeed,India’s
figureshavedeclinedmore
dramaticallythanChina’s
duringthepast20years,from
3.22to2.01,whichmeansthatitspopulationcouldstartdecreasingbeforetheendofthiscentury.Thosecountrieswhichhavehadalowfertilityrateforalongerperiod,likeJapan,ItalyorSouthKorea,are
ageingevenfaster.Together,
ChinaandIndiacurrently
comprise36%oftheworld’s
population.
Theymayhave
very
different
historiesandcultures,
butwhenitcomestotheirpopulationjourney,
theyare
now
onthesametrack,
albeitatdifferentstages.Italy’s
shrinkingpopulationisonlynowstartingtobecomeareal
issue,withsomequestionsabouttheprospectsforthelong-term“survival”ofadistinctItaliannation.Theveryshapeofitspopulationpyramidisstriking,withitsincreasinglytop-heavyfeatures,setagainstanarrowbase(see
page
35).PrimeMinisterGeorgia
MelonisaysItalyis“destined
to
disappear”unlessitchanges.Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations21IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoFig.
5–Falling
offthepopulationcliffManycountriesare
predictedtoseetheirpopulationpeakincomingdecades.Super-Ageing
SocietiesForsomethishasalreadystarted.Thesechangesallhaveveryreal
implicationsintermsofhowsocietyandtheeconomyoperate.Around36%ofItaliansunder30are
livinginasingle-personhousehold,whilejust50%haveadrivinglicence.And,whentheyareemployed(theyoungestworkingagegroupsbeingthreetimesmore
likelytobeunemployed),theyhaveonaveragehadbetweenfourandfivedifferent
jobssincetheyenteredthelabourmarket.Thispointstoaninsecure,unsettledlifestyle.IndiaProjectedPopulationItalyProjectedPopulation20001500100050006050403019501975200020252050207521001950197520002025205020752100SouthKoreaProjectedPopulationMexicoProjectedPopulationMeanwhile,SouthKorea
isexperiencingsimilarissues,withanextremelylowfertilityrate(nowatonly0.87)andageingveryfast–just22%are
under25,andtheyareoutnumberedbytheover60s(26%).6050403020150120906030019501975200020252050207521001950197520002025205020752100Source:
UnitedNations:World
PopulationProspects
2022Ipsos|
We
needtotalkabout
generations22IntroductionContextPeak
PopulationTheConversationQuestionsUKSouth
AfricaIndiaSouthKoreaItalyMexicoFig.
6–Thecountry
contextLowerfertilityratesandageingare
increasingtherelativesizeoftheoldergenerationsinnearlyallthebigeconomies,andtheyare
becomingclosetoamajorityinsomeofthekeyAsianandEuropeanmarkets.Thisraisesquestionsaroundhowmodernsocietiestreat
theoldergenerations–docompanies,brands,employers,andpoliticiansneedtorethinkhowtheyfocustheirefforts?We
pickuponthesethemesinthenextchapter.SouthSouthIndia
Mexico
USAChinaUKItalyAfricaKoreaMedianAge282970307538773940454882LifeExpectancy646%778283Percentage65+7%8%17%13%4%12%11%1%19%12%7%17%10%7%24%10%14%1.3Percentage15-24y.o.PopulationDecline:
Whatcanbedone?16%-10%2.318%-11%2.017%-9%1.8Diff65+/14-24Therealityoffallingpopulationsisnotlimitedtoafew“outliercountries”.New
analysis
byDarrellBrickerandJohnIbbitsonidentifies36countrieswhichare
losingpopulationalready,
withmore
settofollowthem.FertilityRatePeakFertility1.71.21.60.919581965195719591963196419571964TheBrickerand
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