中国经济半年度展望

目录Content摘要ABSTRACT 1回顾Review 3策Policy 4资Investment 6费Consumption 12口Export 15GDPGrossDomesticProduct 16免责明 19Disclaimer 20回顾Review一季度中国经济恢复好于预期，但二季度经济增长动能明显减弱。一季度经济表现较好主要因为积压需求的释放。二季度经济增长动能减弱有三个原因。Chinaeconomyrecoveredbetterthanexpectedin2023Q1,butthegrowthsloweddownin2023Q2,excludingthebaseeffect.Thebetter-than-expectedeconomicperformancein2023Q1wasmainlyduetothereleaseofbacklogdemand.Therearethreereasonsfortheslowdownofeconomicgrowthin2023Q2.42.8%8%的水平。Firstly,thereleaseofbacklogdemandhassignificantlydecreased.Thebacklogdemandforconsumptionandcommercialhousingsaleswasmostlyreleasedin2023Q1,andthebacklogofexportdemandwasreleasedfullybyApril.Secondly,weakenedrealestateexpectationsuppressedthesalesofcommercialbuildingsandtheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopment.Finally,therecoveryofconsumerconfidenceremainsslow.Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswasonly2.8%in2023Q2,farlowerthanthegrowthrateof8%beforeCOVIDpandemic.政策Policy7245%左右的GDP增长目标。OnJuly24,thePoliticalBureauoftheCommunistPartyofChina(CPC)CentralCommitteeheldameetingtoanalyzethecurrenteconomicsituationandplanforeconomicworkforthesecondhalfof2023.Basedonourunderstanding,thegovernmentwillmakeeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemandin2023H2andtoachieveanannualGDPgrowthtargetofaround5%.的发展韧性和潜力，长期向好的基本面没有改变。ThepolitburomeetingpointedoutthatChina'seconomyisfacingnewdifficultiesandchallenges,whichmainlyarisefrominsufficientdomesticdemand,difficultiesintheoperationofsomeenterprises,risksandhiddendangersinkeyareas,aswellasagrimandcomplexexternalenvironment.Chinaeconomyhasenormousdevelopmentresilienceandpotential,andpositivefundamentalshavenotchangedinthelongterm.会议要求，精准有力实施宏观调控，加强逆周期调节和政策储备。这意味着，如果国内经济不能稳住，还会有进一步的稳经济措施出台。Themeetingcalledforcarryingoutmacroeconomicregulationwithprecisionandforce,strengtheningcounter-cyclicalmeasures,andmakingmorepolicyoptionsavailable,indicatingthatmorepoliciesaimtostabilizetheeconomywillbeintroducedifthedomesticeconomycannotimprove.这意味着经济发展不会重走老路，不会过度GDP同比增长%左右。Themeetingalsocalledfortheimplementationofthenewdevelopmentconcept,whichmeansthateconomicdevelopmentwillnotbethesamewayasitwas,willnotexcessivelyborrowforconstruction,andwillnotexcessivelystimulateconsumption.Thepolicygoalistopromotetheeffectiveimprovementofqualityandreasonablegrowthofquantityintheeconomy,withGDPincreasingbyabout5.0%投资方面，政治局会议要求“更好发挥政府投资带动作用，加快地方政府专项债券Themeetingnecessitatedeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemand.Intermsofconsumption,themeetingmentionedthat“consumptionofmajoritemsincludingautomobiles,electronicproductsandhouseholditemsshouldbeboosted”.Relevantpolicieshavebeenreleasedrecently.Intermsofinvestment,themeetingdemandedthatgovernmentinvestmentshouldbetterplaytheroleofdrivingoverallinvestment,withfasterissuanceanduseoflocalgovernmentspecial-purposebonds.Themeetingalsodemandedthatmorepoliciesshouldbeformulatedandrolledouttospurprivateinvestment,andthesepoliceshavebeenreleased.这意味着大中城从而防范房地产炒作。政策的目标是促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。Intermsofrealestate,themeetingdemandedthatreal-estatepoliciesshouldbeadjustedandoptimizedinatimelymanner,whichmeansrelativelytightpoliciessuchaspurchaserestrictionsandloanrestrictionsinlargeandmedium-sizedcitiesinChinawillbeappropriatelyrelaxed.However,therelaxationofpoliciesmaynotbefullyimplementedallatoncetopreventrealestatespeculation.Thepolicyobjectiveistoadvancethestableandsounddevelopmentoftherealestatemarket.Investment6月增速已企稳回升3.0%2.16月固定资产投资增速已经51.3个百分点。ChinafixedassetinvestmentgrewatarelativelyslowpaceinQ2,butthegrowthratereboundedinJune.Theinvestmentinfixedassetsgrewby+3.0%YoYinQ2,2.1%lowerthanQ1.However,itreboundedinJune,withitsYoYandtwo-yearaveragegrowthratesbothincreasingby+1.3%comparedwithMay.图表1：固定资产投资当月同比(,21年为两年平均增速)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

图表2：固定资产投资当月同比(21与23年为两年平均增速)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)固定资产投资 房地产 基建 制造业 固定资产投资 房地产 基建 制造业FixedAssetInvestment RealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing2520151050-5-10-15-20

FixedAsset2520151050-5-10-15-20

RealEstateInfrastructure

ManufacturingDec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23

Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF房地产投资Realestateinvestment中国房地产行业调整已经较为充分，进一步下行空间并不大。2021年下半年22022年下半年疫12019年同期的增速大体呈现筑底特征。因此，房地产进一步下行空间不大。TheadjustmentofChina'srealestateindustryhasbeenrelativelysufficient,andfurtherdownwardspaceislimited.Since2021H2,therealestateindustryhasexperiencedatwo-yearretreat,whichwasrelativelysufficientfromtheperspectiveoftime.Theresidents'willingnesstopurchasehouseswassignificantlysuppressedbytheepidemicin2022H2,whichmeansthattheinvestmentandspeculativedemandforcommercialhousingshouldhavebeenfullysqueezedout.Thegrowthratesofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandnewlystartedhasgenerallyshownabottomingoutfeature,comparedwiththesameperiodof2019.Thereisnotmuchroomforfurtherdeclineinrealestateindustry.图表3(,2021RealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

图表4：房地产相关指标当月值相对于2019年同期的增()ChangeratesofRealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthcomparedtothesameperiodin2019,FloorspaceofbuildingssoldYoYFloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoYInvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY

Growthrateoffloorspacesold(comparedto2019)Growthrateoffloorspacenewlystarted(comparedto2019)Growthrateofrealestateinvestment(comparedto2019)20100-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23

3020100-10-20-30-40-50-60-70Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF近期居民购房观望情绪浓厚以及二手房供应增加使得新房销售面临一些下行的压力730二手房分流了一些新房需求。这两个因素使得短期新房销售面临一些下行压力。Thestrongwait-and-seesentimentamongresidentsinpurchasinghouses,andtheincreaseinsupplyofsecond-handhousinghaveputsomedownwardpressureonnewhousingsales.Sincethefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcitieshasfurtherdeclined.Therearetworeasonsforthis.Firstly,thedeclineinhousingpriceshasledtoastrongwait-and-seesentimentamongresidentswhenpurchasinghouses.Secondly,weakenedexpectationsofhousingpriceshasledtoanincreaseinthesupplyofsecond-handhousing,whichhasdivertedsomedemandfornewhousing.Thesefactorshaveputsomedownwardpressureontheshort-termnewhousingsales.图表5：30大中城市每日商品房成交面积:MA7（万平方米）Floorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcities(7-daymeanaverage,10,000squaremeters)

图表6：70个大中城市二手住宅价格比()70MajorCitiesSecond-HandHousingPricesMoM1009080706050403020100

2023 2022 2020 2019

1.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0

70城 一线 二线 三线70Cities Tier1 Tier2 Tier3J F M A M J J A S O N D Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF710724Thestrengtheningpolicysupportisexpectedtorelievedownwardpressureonrealestate,andtherealestateinvestmentmaybottomoutin2023H2.OnJuly10th,ThePeople'sBankofChinaandtheStateAdministrationofFinancialRegulationannouncedtheextensionofthepolicyperiodrelatedtofinancialsupportforthestableandhealthydevelopmentoftherealestateindustry,whichhelpsmaintainthestabilityofrealestatedevelopers'cashflow.OnJuly24th,thePolitburomeetingdemandedthatreal-estatepoliciesshouldbeadjustedandoptimizedinatimelymanner,whichmeansrelativelytightpoliciessuchaspurchaserestrictionsandloanrestrictionsinlargeandmedium-sizedcitieswillbeappropriatelyrelaxed.Withpolicysupport,thefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandtheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentisexpectedtobottomoutin2023H2.基建投资Infrastructureinvestment由于稳增长力度加大，预计下半年基建投资增长将有所加快投资比长10.7增速较建资要于稳长据7Infrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2duetothestrengtheningpolicysupport.In2023H1,accumulatedinfrastructureinvestmentincreasedby+10.7%whichwasatarelativelyhighlevel.Thegrowthrateofinfrastructureinvestmentmainlydependsontheeffortstostabilizetheeconomy.AccordingtothespiritofthePolitburomeeting,moreeffortswillbemadetostabilizetheeconomyin2023H2,withfasterissuanceanduseoflocalgovernmentspecial-purposebondsandgovernmentinvestmentplayagreaterrole.Therefore,thegrowthofInfrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtospeedup.图表7(，2021InfrastructureInvestmentYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

图表8：新增专项债累计发行规模(亿元)Currentyearcumulativeissuanceamountofnewlyaddedlocalgovernmentspecial-purposebonds,100millionyuan20151050-5-10-15-20-25-30

CurrentyearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoYInfrastructureInvestmentinasinglemonthYoY

450004000035000300002500020000150001000050000

2023 2022 2021Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

J F M A M J J A S O N D资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF制造业投资Manufacturinginvestment预计下半年制造业投资增长小幅加快6.0%，增速居中。上半年制造业利润总额同比下降20%，不利于制造业投资增长。不过，政策积极支持制造业发展，640.3%，这有利于制造业投资增长。在政策的支持下，下半年制造业投资增长有望小幅加快。Itisexpectedthatthegrowthofinvestmentinmanufacturingindustrymay slightly accelerate in 2023H2. The accumulated investment manufacturingindustryincreasedby+6.0%in2023H1,whichwasatamediumlevel.In2023H1,thetotalprofitofthemanufacturingindustrydownedby-20%YoY,whichisnotconducivetothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.However,policiesstronglysupportthedevelopmentofthemanufacturingindustry.BytheendofJune,thegrowthrateofmid&long-termloanbalancestothemanufacturingindustrywasashighas+40.3%,whichisfavorabletothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.Withthesupportofpolicies,thegrowthofmanufacturinginvestmentwillmoderatelyquickenin2023H2.图表9(，21InvestmentinmanufacturingindustryYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

图表10：制造业中长期贷款与利润增速（）Outstandingmid&long-termloansandtotalprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY3020100-10-20-40

CurrentyearcumulativeinvestmentinmanufacturingYoY Outstandingmid&long-termLoanstomanufacturingindustryYoYManufacturingindustryinvestmentinasinglemonthYoY CurrentyearcumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY50403020100-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22

Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF投资展望：房地产投资总体处于筑底阶段，基建与制造业投资增长可能加快，下半年固定资产投资增长有望小幅加快。Tosummarize,therealestateinvestmentmaybebottomout,andthegrowthofinvestmentininfrastructureandmanufacturingmayaccelerate.Thegrowthoffixedassetsinvestmentisexpectedtomoderatelyimprovedin2023H2.Consumption6月消费增速企稳回升。4、5、6月份，2.6%、2.5%、3.1%3.5%、3.5%、4.0%，消费增速已经触底并开始企稳回升。TheconsumptiongrowthinQ2hasalreadyhitthebottom,withthegrowthratereboundedmoderatelyinJune.FromApriltoJune,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswere+2.6%,+2.5%,and+3.1%,andthefour-yearaveragegrowthrateswere+3.5%,+3.5%,and+4.0%,respectively.Theconsumptiongrowthratehasstartedtorebound.图表11：社会消费品零售总额的增速（，剔除基数效应TotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoY(excludingbaseeffect)

图表12：商品零售与餐饮收入当月同比（，剔除基数效应）CommodityRetailandIncomeofCateringIndustryYoY(excludingbaseeffect)RetailSalesYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein CommodityRetailYoY IncomeofCateringIndustryYoY2021and2023)20.0 RetailSalesYoY(two-year,four-yearaverage

(twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023,respectively)1515.010.05.00.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0

ratein2021and2023,respectively)

1050-5-10-15-20-25-30Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF中国消费的修复过程尚未完成，下半年消费尤其是服务消费有望进一步恢复。相对于疫情前（219年，二季度社会消费品零售总额增长1.6%，远低于居民收入29.4%的增速，反映消费仍存在较大的修复空间。其中，6月份商品零售与餐饮收201917.3%、13.6%，餐饮收入增速仍明显低于商品零售，反映服务消费的修复明显滞后。预计下半年中国消费尤其是服务消费进一步恢复。Therecoveryofconsumptionhasnotyetbeencompleted,andtheconsumption,especiallyserviceconsumption,isexpectedtofurtherrecoverin2023H2.Incomparisonwithpre-COVIDera(2019),theretailsalesofconsumergoodsraisedby+15%,13%lowerthanthegrowthrateofhouseholds’income,signifyingsomespaceforconsumptionrecovery.InJune,thegrowthrateoftheincomeofcateringindustrywas+13.6%comparedwithJune2019,whichwas3.7%lowerthanthatoftheretailsalesofcommodities,reflectingthattherecoveryofserviceconsumptionstilllagsbehind.ItisexpectedthatChinaconsumption,especiallyserviceconsumption,willfurtherrecoverin2023H2.0.30.40.3个百分点，比去年四季度的三年平均增速高0.9个百分点。Thegrowthofresidents'incomeisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2,whichwillalsodriveafasterconsumptiongrowth.Residents'incomemainlydependsonemployment.TheurbansurveyedunemploymentrateinQ2was5.2%,0.3%lowerthanQ1and0.4%lowerthan2022Q4.In2023Q2,thenationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentsgrewbyanaverageof6.7%overthepastfouryears,0.3%higherthanthefirstquarterand0.9%higherthanthethree-yearaveragegrowthratein2022Q4.总体来看，在国内防疫政策优化之后，居民整体失业率趋于降低，而居民收入增长趋于加快。下半年国内服务消费继续温和修复，服务业就业将进一步增加，失业率可能小幅回落，居民收入增长或将小幅加快。Overall,aftertheoptimizationofdomesticepidemicpreventionpolicies,theunemploymentratetendstodecrease,whilethegrowthofresidents'incometendstoaccelerate.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,domesticserviceconsumptionwillcontinuetorecovermoderately,employmentintheserviceindustrywillfurtherincrease,unemploymentratemayslightlydecline,andresidentincomegrowthmayslightlyaccelerate.Thus,theconsumptionmaygrowatafasterpace.已经先后发布。未来存量房贷利率也可能适当下调，这将减少居民利息支出，有助于消费加快增长。Inaddition,theenhancingpolicysupportwillalsohelpaccelerateconsumptiongrowthin2023H2.Thepolitburomeetingdemandedeffortstoactivelyexpandconsumptiondemand.Inmid-July,thepoliciestoboosttheconsumptionofmajoritemsincludingautomobiles,electronicproductsandhouseholditemshavebeenreleased.Inthefuture,theinterestratesonexistinghousingloansmayalsobeappropriatelylowered,whichwillreduceresidents'interestexpensesandhelpaccelerateconsumptiongrowth.图表13：居民收入与消费增速（，剔除基数效应）ThegrowthratesofResidentsIncomeandConsumption

图表14：居民收入增速与城镇调查失业率（）UnemploymentRateandthegrowthratesofIncomeCurrentyearaccumulativeResidentsIncomeYoY QuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoY (two-year,three-year,12840-8-12-16-20

CurrentyearaccumulativeRetailSalesYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and

four-yearaveragegrowthratein2021,2022andQuarterlyUnemploymentRate(rightaxis)1086420

6.05.25.04.24.0Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23 Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSFExport下半年中国外需可能小幅走弱，但低基数效应将推动出口同比增速回升。62023GDP0.4GDP0.7%，有望避免经济衰退。总体来看，下半年全球经济仍有韧性。China'sexternaldemandmayweakenslightlyin2023H2,buttheYoYgrowthrateofexportswillreboundduetothelowbaseeffect.TheWorldBankraised2023globalGDPgrowthprojectionby0.4%to+2.1%inJune,advancedeconomiesGDPisexpectedtogrowby+0.7%andmayavoideconomicrecession.Overall,globaleconomyisexpectedtostayresilient.25-50BP不会很大。考虑到低基数效应，中国出口同比增速或将回升。Inthesecondhalf,manyoverseaseconomiesstillneedhighinterestratetocurbinflationandrestrictdemand.Inparticular,theUSFedandECBmightraiseinterestrateby25to50bp.Inthisbackground,overseasdemandmayweaken.However,astheinterestratehikesgraduallystop,theimpactofhighinterestratesoncommoditydemandhasgenerallybeenreflected,andthedeclineinChina’sexternaldemandwillnotbesignificant.Becauseofthelowbaseeffect,thegrowthrateofChinaexportsmayreboundin2023H2.图表15：全球制造业PMI与我国出口速（）GlobalManufacturePMIandChinaExportGrowth,%

图表16：全球GDP增速及其预测（）GlobalGDPActualandProjectedGrowth,%J.P.MorganglobalmanufacturingPMI(leftExport(USD)YoY(two-yearaveragein2021)58565452504846

8246184122600-6 -2-12 -4

GDP同比:全球 发达经济体 发展中国家GlobalGDPYoY%AEGDPYoYGlobalGDPYoY%AEGDPYoY% EMGDPYoY44Feb-16Mar-17Apr-18May-19Jun-20Jul-21Aug-22

-18

-62020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f 2025f资料来源：中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：世界银行中信期货研究所Sources:WorldBank,CITICSFGDPGrossDomesticProduct二季度中国GDP3.3%GDP6.3%，.%.%的增速。Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofChinaGDPin2023Q2was3.3%,atarelativelylowlevel.ThegrowthrateofGDPin2023Q2was6.3%,thehighlevelwasmainlyduetothelowbaseeffect;however,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratewasonly3.3%,1.3%lowerthan2023Q1.图表17：GDP当季同比（）QuarterlyGDPYoY

图表18GDP，2123GDPYoY,byindustry(excludingbase20.016.012.08.04.00.0-4.0-8.0

GDP:当季同比QuarterlyGDPYoY

10.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0

GDP 第二产业 第三产业SecondaryIndustry TertiaryIndustry(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF根据估算，6GDP4.0%左右GDP增长