JPMorgan Econ FI-Euro Area-103395559-此为英文文档

1

MarcoProtopapa(44-20)7742-7644topapa@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

GregFuzesi(44-20)7134-8310

greg.x.fuzesi@

RaphaelBrun-Aguerre(44-20)7134-8308raphael.x.brun-aguerre@

EuropeEconomicResearch

GlobalDataWatch

11August2023

EuroArea

•AddingmodestgrowthtoourforecastfollowingtheUSupwardrevision

•WenowexpecttheECBtoeasein3Q24,insteadof2Q24

•JuneEuroareaIPsetfor0.5%m/mgain,helpedbya13.1%Irishgain

Threeweeksago,theslideintheEuroareaPMIpromptedustorevisedownournear-termEuroareagrowthforecast(2Q23-3Q23).Atthesametime,wealsoreviseddownour2H24profile,takingonboardthelaggedimpactofmonetarypolicy.Thisweek,wemademodesttweakstothemiddlepartofourGDPforecast(slightlystrongergrowtharoundtheturnoftheyear)followingtheupwardrevisionoftheUSgrowthforecast.WealsomadeamodestchangetoourECBcallandnowexpectthecentralbanktostarteasingin3Q24,insteadof2Q24.

Abitmoregrowtharoundyear-end

TheUSgrowthforecastwasliftedby2%-ptsonaveragethrough2H23andby1%-ptin1Q24lastFriday.Growthwasalsoreviseddownby1%-ptonaveragein2H24.Thesechangesaresignificant,butweonlyrespondedtothesemod-estlythisweek,becauseEuroareaactivitydatahavebeenweakonboththedemandandproductionsides.Inparticular,theslideinthePMIsurveyleavesthepaceofactivityata0.3%arinJuly,significantlybelowthe0.75%GDPforecastweexpectin3Q23,andcreatesdownsiderisksaroundourcall.ThishighlightsthequestionsaroundEuroareaeconomynear-termmomentum.Forthisreason,weleftour3Q23GDPforecastunchangedandonlyrevisedour4Q24forecastupby0.25%-ptsto0.75%ar.EuroareagrowthshouldalsobenefitfromastrongerUSeconomyatthestartofnextyear.Wethusliftour1Q24GDPforecastto0.75%araswell.

Figure1:EuroareaGDP

%q/q,saar

GDP,actualPMImodel

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

1012141618202224

Source:Eurostat,S&PGlobal,J.P.Morgan

OurrevisionsarerelativelymodestcomparedtotheUSfore-castchange.Powerfuldragsareinplacethatshouldleavetheeconomyonasub-parpaceinthecomingquarters(Table1).

Wagesstillhaveyettocatchupwithprices,tightermonetaryconditionsarebitingandenergy-intensiveindustrieshavefailedtoreboundafterfromthegaspriceshock.Nonetheless,someofthesedragsshouldstillfade,alsohelpedbyatightlabormarketoverthecomingquartersand,therefore,currentdownsiderisksshouldfade.Werecentlyreviseddownour2H24growthforecastandleavethatunchangedthisweekdespitetheUS2H24downwardrevision,asweexpectdomesticmacrofundamentalstoimproveoverthemediumterm.

Table1:Euroareaforecasts

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

2023

2024

GDP(%q/qar)

0.1

1.1

0.75

0.75

0.75

0.75

1.00

1.00

0.7

0.8

U-rate(%)Inflation(%oya)

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.5

Headline

8.0

6.2

4.7

2.6

2.3

2.3

1.9

2.1

5.4

2.2

Core

5.5

5.5

5.2

4.1

3.3

2.8

2.3

2.4

5.1

2.7

ECBrate*(%)

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

3.75

3.50

4.00

3.50

*Depositrate.Source:Eurostat,ECB,J.P.Morgan

NowexpectinglaterECBeasing

Euroareacorepricepressurehascomedowninrecentmonths,butcoreinflationremainshigh(around5%whendis-tortionsarecontrolledfor).Tightlabormarketsandstrongerwagegrowthwill,inourview,putpressureontheECBtohikeinSeptember(weexpecta25bphike)butweakactivitydatahintatapossiblepauseintheratehikecycle(Figure2).TheupwardrevisionwemaketotheEuroareagrowthfore-castistoosmalltoimpactourinflationforecastsignificantly.Butdespitethemodestupwardrevisionaroundtheturnoftheyear,westillseeEuroareagrowthonasubduedpathinthecomingquarters.Thisshouldencouragemoremoderatepriceandwagesetting,whichshouldopenthedoorforpolicyratescutsnextyear.However,wenowexpectthesecutstotakeplaceatalaterstage.WhilewehadexpectedtheECBtostartcuttingitspolicyrateata25bpquarterlypacein2Q24,wenowexpectittostartin3Q24.

Figure2:ECBpolicyinterestrates

%

Marginallendingrate

6

5

Mainrefirate

4

Eonia/ESTR

3

2

1

Depositrate

0

-1

990409141924

Source:ECB,J.P.Morgan

Germanindustrydatastillweak

Germanindustrydatacontinuetoprintontheweakside.Aftera1.7%m/mdeclineinfactorysalesinJuneanda

2

110100908070

60

MarcoProtopapa(44-20)7742-7644topapa@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

GregFuzesi(44-20)7134-8310

greg.x.fuzesi@

RaphaelBrun-Aguerre(44-20)7134-8308raphael.x.brun-aguerre@

EuropeEconomicResearch

EuroArea

11August2023

2.6%m/mcontractioninex.bulkorderslastweek,totalJuneIPwasdown1.5%m/mthisweek.IPex.constructionwasdown1.3%m/mandmanufacturingoutputwasdown1.2%m/m.ThisleavesIPex.constructionin2Q2.9%arbelowthe1Qlevel(1.2%arbelowformanufacturing).

Figure3:Germanindustrialindicators

Order

1Q14=100,volumes,allindicatorsareformanufacturing

backlog

150

140

130

Orders,exbulk

120

110

100

IP

90

80

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:Destatis,J.P.Morgan

TheJunedetailsweremixed.Pharmaceuticalandelectricaloutputwereup.Butdeclineswereseeninmetals,machineryandespeciallycarproduction(-3.5%m/m).Twoforceshavebeenplayinginoppositedirectionsinrecentquarters.Energy-intensiveoutputfellduring2022,duetohighgasprices,whileautoproductionwasontheriselastyear(somenormal-izationfollowingtheCOVID-19relatedfall).Throughthenoise,therecentdynamicsseemtohavestabilizedinbothcases.Lastweek,theJulyVDAcardatacontracted16.5%,hintingatasignificantcarproductioncontractiononthatmonth.ButsummercarproductiondatacanbevolatileduetothetimingofholidaysacrossGermanstates,thuswearenotputtingmuchweightontheVDAdata.Excludingenergy-in-tensiveandcarproduction,IPhasbeenonatrenddowninrecentmonths.

Figure4:GermanIP

Motorvehicles

Jan-21=100

Other

Energy-intensiveproducts

202120222023

Source:ECB,J.P.Morgan

TheGermanmanufacturingoutputPMIsurveyfellbynearly10ptsinthethreemonthstoJuly.ThesignalfromthePMIoutputsurveyoflatehasbeenweakerthantheIPdata.ButthePMIhas,meantime,beenabetterindicatorfororders.

Figure5:Germanmanufacturingoutput

%3m/3msaar

DI,sa

80

70

60

50

40

30

IP-Manufacturing

ManufacturingPMI

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

11131517192123

Source:Destatis,Markit,J.P.Morgan

EuroareaIPsetfor0.5%m/mJunegain

JuneIPcountryreleasesamongthemaineconomiesoftheregionhavebeenweakoverall(Figure6).Beyondthe1.3%m/msadeclineinGermany(discussedabove),IPex.constructionwasdown0.9%m/mand1.0%inFranceandSpain,respectively,whileIPwasup1.0%inItaly.ButIrelandpostedahuge13.1%m/mIPex.constructionincrease(24.9%m/mformanufacturing).IrelandcanbevolatileduetomultinationalslocatedinIrelandandowningproductionfacil-itiesoutsideIrelandandowingtointellectualpropertyrights.IncludingIreland,EuroareaIPex.constructionissetfora0.5%m/mincrease,withthemanufacturingup2.8%m/m.ExcludingIreland,IPex.constructionshouldbedown0.9%m/mwhilemanufacturingoutputshouldbedown0.8%m/m.Onanex.Irelandbasis,EuroareaIPhasbeenonatrenddowninrecentquarters.

Figure6:EuroareaIPex.construction

Jan20=100

ItalySpain

GermanyFrance

105

100

95

90

201920202021202220232024

Source:Eurostat,Destatis,INSEE,Istat,INE,J.P.Morgan

3

MarcoProtopapa(44-20)7742-7644topapa@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

GregFuzesi(44-20)7134-8310

greg.x.fuzesi@

RaphaelBrun-Aguerre(44-20)7134-8308raphael.x.brun-aguerre@

EuropeEconomicResearch

GlobalDataWatch

11August2023

Datareleasesandforecasts

WeekofAugust14-18

Outputandsurveys

RealGDP

WedEuroarea(2ndestimate)Aug16%q/q,sa

11:00am%q/q,saar

%oya

GDPcomponents(%q/q,saar)PrivateconsumptionGovernmentconsumptionFixedinvestment

Exports

Imports

4Q22

-0.1

-0.2

1.8

-3.9

2.6

-2.2

-1.2

-5.8

1Q23

0.0

0.1

1.1

-1.2

-6.3

2.5

0.9

-4.6

2Q23¹

0.3

1.1

0.6

2Q23

0.31.10.6

ContributiontoGDPgrowth(%q/q,saar)

-2.0-0.5

2.3

-1.5-1.2

2.8

Domesticfinalsales

Inventories

Nettrade

1Flashestimate.

Accordingtotheflashrelease,EuroareaGDPwasup1.1%q/qarin2Q.Weexpectthesecondestimatetocomeininlinewiththisnumber.Thisnumberwas,toasignificantextent,liftedbyIreland,whichcanbevolatileduetomultinationalslocatedinIrelandandowningproductionfacilitiesoutsideIrelandandowingtointellectualpropertyrights.Ex.Ireland,GDPwasup0.6%arin2Q,inlinewiththegainseenin1Q.Importantly,thesignalfromthePMIhasdeclinedsharplyoflate.InApril,thePMIwassignalinggrowthofcloseto2%ar.InJuly,thesignalofthePMIwasconsistentwithonly0.3%argrowth.Thiscreatesdownsiderisksaroundour0.75%ar3QGDPestimate.No2QGDPdetailsaretobereleasednextweek,buthighfrequencydatasuggesttheman-ufacturingsectorhasunderperformedrelativetotheservicessector.

Industrialproduction

Mar

Apr

1.00.4

0.5

Jun

May

Euroarea

Indproduction(%m/m,sa)%oya,sa

0.2-2.1

1.3

0.5

-4.4-2.1

-5.5

Wed

Aug16

11:00am

2.8

Manufprod(%m/m,sa)

JuneIPcountryreleasesamongthemaineconomiesoftheregionhavebeenweakoverall.Amongthemaineconomiesoftheregion,IPex.constructiondeclined1.3%m/msainGermanyandwasdown0.9%m/mand1.0%inFranceandSpain,respectively,whileIPwasup1.0%inItaly.ButIrelandpostedahuge13.1%m/mIPex.constructionincrease(24.9%m/mformanufacturing).Irelandcanbevolatiledueto

multinationalslocatedinIrelandandowningproductionfacil-itiesoutsideIrelandandowingtointellectualpropertyrights.IncludingIreland,EuroareaIPex.constructionissetfora0.5%m/mincrease,withmanufacturingup2.8%m/m.Exclud-ingIreland,IPex.constructionshouldbedown0.9%m/m,whilemanufacturingoutputshouldbedown0.8%m/m.Onanex.irelandbasis,EuroareaIPhasbeenonatrenddowninrecentquarters.

Constructionoutput

Mar

-1.8

-0.6

Apr

-0.6

0.1

May

0.2

0.4

Jun

2Q23

Jun

Jul

-0.10.45.30.45.50.5

FriEuroarea

Aug18%m/m,sa

11:00am%oya,sa

Demandandlabormarkets

Employment

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

WedAug1611:00am

Euroarea(flash)

Sa

000s,diff.q/q

%q/q

%oya

513

0.3

1.8

Mar

12.3

-26.2

241.6

0.1

229.3

-5.8

521

0.3

1.6

Apr

-8.0

-34.6

232.4

-3.8

240.3

4.8

913

0.5

1.6

payments

Externaltradeand

Foreigntrade

May

ThuAug1711:00am

Euroarea

€bn,values,sa

Tradebalance

yearearlier

Exports

%m/m

Imports

%m/m

-0.9

-30.4

239.1

2.9

240.0

-0.1

Inflation

Jul¹

-0.1

0.4

5.3

0.4

5.5

May

0.0

-0.1

6.1

0.1

5.3

0.0

Jun

0.3

0.3

5.5

0.4

5.5

0.2

Consumerprices

FriAug1811:00am

Euroarea(final)

HICP(%m/m,nsa)

HICP(%m/m,saECB)

HICP(%oya,nsa)

HICPcore(%m/m,saECB)HICPcore(%oya,nsa)

HICP(%m/m,ex-tob.)

1Flashrelease.

Interpretingtherecentinflationprintisalsocomplicatedbytwodistortions(seedetails):abaseeffectlinkedtoGerman

4

RaphaelBrun-Aguerre(44-20)7134-8308raphael.x.brun-aguerre@

Industrial

-6.3

Jul

MarcoProtopapa(44-20)7742-7644

topapa@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

GregFuzesi(44-20)7134-8310

greg.x.fuzesi@

transportpricesandtheimpactofweightchangesintheHICPbasket.Thesetwodistortionsareliftingcoreinflationthissummer(bothareconcentratedinservices).Thefirsteffectisworth0.3%-ptsbetweenJuneandAugust.Thesecondeffectcanonlybeassessedwithfinaldetailsduenextweek.Butweestimatethatthiseffectcouldliftcoreinflationbyabout0.4%-ptsinJulyandcorepricesbyabout0.2%-pts.Control-lingforthesetwodistortionsoverallwouldleavecoreinfla-tionbelow5%(thusstillonadownwardtrend)andcorepric-esuparound0.2-0.3%m/msa(closetotheJunelevelandsignificantlybelowthe0.5%averagepaceseenaroundtheturnoftheyear).

Source:EuropeanCommission,Eurostat,ECB,FSO,Bundesbank,IFO,INSEE,ISAE,Istat,INE,

CBS,BNB,Markit,andJ.P.Morganforecasts

EuropeEconomicResearch

EuroArea

11August2023

Jul¹

Jun

Jul

Spain(final)

0.61.9

1.6

0.12.3

2.1

0.10.2

2.3

2.1

%m/m,nsa

%oya,nsa

HICP(%oya,nsa)

1Flashrelease.

Source:EuropeanCommission,Eurostat,ECB,FSO,Bundesbank,IFO,INSEE,ISAE,Istat,INE,

CBS,BNB,Markit,andJ.P.Morganforecasts

Reviewofpastweek’sdata

Outputandsurveys

Germany

production

Apr

May

Jun

Industryinclconstr(%m/m,sa)%oya,sa

Industryexconstr(%m/m,sa)Manufacturing(%m/m,sa)Construction(%m/m,sa)Energy(%m/m,sa)

Inflation

0.31.80.20.40.7-2.4

0.9

0.9

-0.20.8-0.20.2

-04

.

-0.1

0.1

0.4

-8.9

0.1-1.5

-1.8

0.1-1.3

-0.3-1.2

-2.8-1.4

Consumerprices

Germany(final)

%m/m,nsa

%oya,nsa

HICP(%oya)

France(final)

%m/m,nsa

Indexextobacco,nsa

%oya,nsa

HICP(%oya)

Italy(final)

%m/m,nsa

%oya,nsa

HICP(%oya,nsa)

Jun

0.3

6.4

6.8

Jun

0.2

116.75

4.5

5.3

Jun

0.0

6.4

6.7

Jul¹

0.3

6.3

6.5

Jul¹

0.0

4.3

5.0

Jul¹

0.1

6.0

6.4

0.3

6.2

6.3

6.5

Jul

0.0116.78

4.3

5.0

0.1116.81

5.1

Jul

0.1

6.0

6.4

0.05.9

6.3

5

MarcoProtopapa(44-20)7742-7644topapa@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

GregFuzesi(44-20)7134-8310

greg.x.fuzesi@

RaphaelBrun-Aguerre(44-20)7134-8308raphael.x.brun-aguerre@

EuropeEconomicResearch

GlobalDataWatch

11August2023

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MarcoProtopapa(44-20)7742-7644topapa@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

GregFuzesi(44-20)7134-8310

greg.x.fuzesi@

RaphaelBrun-Aguerre(44-20)7134-8308raphael.x.brun-aguerre@

EuropeEconomicResearch

EuroArea

11August2023

regulatedbytheDubaiFinancialServicesAuthority(DFSA)anditsregisteredaddressisDubaiInternationalFinancialCentre-TheGate,WestWing,Level3and9POBox506551,Dubai,UAE.ThismaterialhasbeendistributedbyJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,DubaiBranchtopersonsregardedasprofessionalclientsormarketcounterpartiesasdefinedundertheDFSArules.EuropeanEconomicArea(EEA):Unlessspecifiedtothecontrary,researchisdistributedintheEEAbyJ.P.MorganSE(“JPMSE”),whichissubjecttoprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBank(“ECB”)incooperationwithBaFinandDeutscheBundesbankinGermany.JPMSEisacompanyheadquarteredinFrankfurtwithregisteredaddressatTaunusTurm,Taunustor1,FrankfurtamMain,60310,Germany.ThematerialhasbeendistributedintheEEAtopersonsregardedasprofessionalinvestors(orequivalent)pursuanttoArt.4para.1no.10andAnnexIIofMiFIDIIanditsrespectiveimplementationintheirhomejurisdictions(“EEAprofessionalinvestors”).ThismaterialmustnotbeactedonorreliedonbypersonswhoarenotEEAprofessionalinvestors.AnyinvestmentorinvestmentactivitytowhichthismaterialrelatesisonlyavailabletoEEArelevantpersonsandwillbeengagedinonlywithEEArelevantpersons.HongKong:J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited(CEnumberAAJ321)isregulatedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityandtheSecuritiesandFuturesCommissioninHongKong,andJ.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited(CEnumberAAB027)isregulatedbytheSecuritiesandFuturesCommissioninHongKong.JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch(CENumberAAL996)isregulatedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityandtheSecuritiesandFuturesCommission,isorganizedunderthelawsoftheUnitedStateswithlimitedliability.WherethedistributionofthismaterialisaregulatedactivityinHongKong,thematerialisdistributedinHongKongbyorthroughJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedand/orJ.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited.India:J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited(CorporateIdentityNumber-U67120MH1992FTC068724),havingitsregisteredofficeatJ.P.MorganTower,Off.C.S.T.Road,Kalina,Santacruz-East,Mumbai–400098,isregisteredwiththeSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(SEBI)asa‘ResearchAnalyst’havingregistrationnumberINH000001873.J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedisalsoregisteredwithSEBIasamemberoftheNationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimitedandtheBombayStockExchangeLimited(SEBIRegistrationNumber–INZ000239730)andasaMerchantBanker(SEBIRegistrationNumber-MB/INM000002970).Telephone:91-22-61573000,Facsimile:91-22-61573990andWebsite:.JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.-MumbaiBranchislicensedbytheReserveBankofIndia(RBI)(LicenceNo.53/LicenceNo.BY.4/94;SEBI-IN/CUS/014/CDSL:IN-DP-CDSL-444-2008/IN-DP-NSDL-285-2008/INBI00000984/INE231311239)asaScheduledCommercialBankinIndia,whichisitsprimarylicenseallowingittocarryonBankingbusinessinIndiaandotheractivities,whichaBankbranchinIndiaarepermittedtoundertake.Fornon-localresearchmaterial,thismaterialisnotdistributedinIndiabyJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited.ComplianceOfficer:SpurthiGadamsetty;spurthi.gadamsetty@;+912261573225.GrievanceOfficer:RamprasadhK,jpmipl.research.feedback@;+912261573000.

Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybeforeinvesting.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcertificationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.

Indonesia:PTJ.P.MorganSekuritasIndonesiaisamemberoftheIndonesiaStockExchangeandisregisteredandsupervisedbytheOtoritasJasaKeuangan(OJK).Korea:J.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranch,isamemberoftheKoreaExchange(KRX).JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SeoulBranch,islicensedasabranchofficeofforeignbank(JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.)inKorea.BothentitiesareregulatedbytheFinancialServicesCommission(FSC)andtheFinancialSupervisoryService(FSS).Fornon-macroresearchmaterial,thematerialisdistributedinKoreabyorthroughJ.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranch.Japan:JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.andJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,TokyoBranchareregulatedbytheFinancialServicesAgencyinJapan.Malaysia:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedinMalaysiabyJPMorganSecurities(Malaysia)SdnBhd(18146-X),whichisaParticipatingOrganizationofBursaMalaysiaBerhadandholdsaCapitalMarketsServicesLicenseissuedbytheSecuritiesCommissioninMalaysia.Mexico:J.P.MorganCasadeBolsa,S.A.deC.V.andJ.P.MorganGrupoFinancieroaremembersoftheMexicanStockExchangeandareauthorizedtoactasabrokerdealerbytheNationalBankingandSecuritiesExchangeCommission.NewZealand:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedbyJPMSALinNewZealandonlyto"wholesaleclients"(asdefinedintheFinancialMarketsConductAct2013).JPMSALisregisteredasaFinan