银行业2021年一季报回顾：改善与分化-20210505-中信正式版

改善与分化银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5中信证券研究部核心观点一季报显示，上市银行盈利处于稳步改善通道，反映宏观经济景气度的持续修复。一季度营收增速有所下滑，主要是年初贷款重定价以及其他非息高基数的阶段性扰动，年内后续有望呈现逐季改善趋势。个体银行经营两极化，一季度营收增速±20%银行并存，后续客户基础、业务结构、问题资产出清速度的差异或将使行业分化格局延续。▍一季度上市银行业绩增速延续回升趋势。2021年一季度上市银行归母净利润同比+4.6%（2020年累计同比+0.7%），业绩增速持续回升。拆分来看：1）收入端：一季度上市银行营收同比+3.7%（2020年累计同比+5.5%），贷款重定价及交投业务高基数对收入带来阶段性影响。2）成本端：一季度成本收入比同比提高

0.7pct至

23.5%，分子端部分优惠政策退出、分母端收入增速放缓共同所致。3）拨备端：一季度上市银行信用减值损失/拨备前利润比例同比下降

1.09pct至

38.62%，资产质量运行预期进一步趋稳带来拨备节约，当季拨备覆盖水平继续提升，为后续信用成本节约打下基础。▍资负：信贷及存款支撑资负增长。资产端，21Q1上市银行总资产增幅+4.0%（去年同期+5.5），总体保持稳步扩张趋势。一季度银行积极把握信贷需求旺盛的有力条件，强化高收益的信贷资产投放，贷款/总资产占比提高

0.5pct至

54.7%。负债端，一季度上市银行负债环比+4.1%，与资产增速匹配；其中，存款/总负债占比较年初提高

0.5pct至

75.3%，反映负债结构进一步改善，当季同业利率趋势向下，部分中小行亦阶段性提升了同业负债运用。▍息差：环比小幅下行，负债成本管理适度对冲贷款重定价的负向影响。以期初期末平均法测算显示（已还原信用卡分期收入重分类影响），2021年一季度净息差

2.08%，较去年全年下降

6bps。1）资产端，收益率较上年全年走低

13bps至

3.84%，年初存量贷款重定价行为带来一次性扰动；2）负债端，付息率较上年全年小幅走低

6bps至

1.90%，高息存款监管继续推进创造有利条件，同时上市银行亦主动强化负债成本管理，部分缓解息差下行压力。从披露数据看，2021年一季度上市银行整体息差有所下行，宁波、南京、招行等行息差实现逆势上升。▍非息：中收改善明显，其他非息受利率走势错位扰动。一季度上市银行非息收入同比+6.1%（去年全年+4.1%），分解而言：1）手续费及佣金净收入显著改善：一季度上市银行手续费及佣金净收入同比+11.1%（去年全年同比+7.0%），去年同期疫情所致低基数，叠加当季资本市场活跃带来的零售中间业务向好为主因。2）利率错位因素扰动其他非息增长：上市银行公允价值变动损益、投资收益分别较去年同期下降

100亿/262亿（同比-46.4%/-29.8%），去年一季度利率中枢快速下行抬高账面浮盈基数为主因；一季度，租赁、保险等行业景气度有所提升，使得其他业务收入中的子公司收入增长呈现改善态势。银行业评级强于大市（维持）▍资产质量：账面不良率持续压降，拨备覆盖水平提升。1）资产质量改善：一季度末上市银行不良贷款率为

1.40%，较年初下降

0.08pct，38家上市银行中仅

3家出现不良率小幅反弹。暴露与处置力度差异下，存量问题资产出清速度进一步分化，一季度不良率低于

1.1%的上市银行进一步增加至

9家。2）风险抵补能力夯实：一季度上市银行拨备覆盖率达到

220.28%，较年初提升

6.23pct，风险抵补能力进一步夯实，有助于长期稳健经营。▍风险因素：宏观经济增速超预期下滑，导致资产质量大幅恶化。▍投资策略：一季报显示，上市银行盈利处于稳步改善通道，反映宏观经济景气度的持续修复。一季度营收增速有所下滑，主要是年初贷款重定价以及其他非息高基数的阶段性扰动，年内后续有望呈现逐季改善趋势。个体银行经营两极化，一证券研究报告请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5季度营收增速±20%银行并存，后续客户基础、业务结构、问题资产出清速度的差异或将使行业分化格局延续。个股选择方面，可遵循两条线索：1）阿尔法品种打底，优选具备特色商业模式和可持续客户、业务模式和盈利趋势的优质银行，如招商银行、平安银行；2）贝塔品种增强弹性，兼具业绩弹性和估值弹性的品种具备“双击”潜力，可关注兴业银行、江苏银行、光大银行、南京银行和大行。重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级EPS（元）2021E4.31PB收盘价（元）简称评级2020A3.792022E5.042020A2.082021E1.851.400.812022E1.64招商银行平安银行兴业银行江苏银行光大银行南京银行52.7023.2921.74买入增持增持增持增持增持1.401.631.971.541.273.083.443.950.890.727.073.789.170.950.661.271.090.701.441.300.781.650.770.590.950.710.550.850.650.500.77资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部预测及

BVPS为归属普通股股东口径注：（1）股价为

2021年

4月

30日收盘价；（2）EPS证券研究报告请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5目录业绩概览：信用成本节约助力盈利增长

........................................................................1资产负债：信贷支撑资产扩张，负债增速保持平稳......................................................4资产投放：资产扩张积极，信贷为主要支撑

.................................................................4负债来源：存款增长为主，主动负债增速放缓..............................................................6息差：负债成本节约对冲存量贷款重定价影响

.............................................................8非息表现：中收改善显著，其他非息扰动...................................................................12低基数叠加市场向好，手续费及佣金净收入显著改善.................................................12利率走势错位致其他非息增速偏弱..............................................................................13资产质量：账面不良压降，拨备覆盖充足...................................................................15账面不良率持续下降，行际分化延续..........................................................................15拨备水平提升，风险抵御能力增强..............................................................................18风险因素

.....................................................................................................................21投资建议

.....................................................................................................................21请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分pOoNsMvMrQoOoRtQtMrNrQ7N9R9PtRoOsQmNiNoOqNlOnNqPaQmMqQwMqRpNuOoOtQ银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5插图目录图

1：上市银行营业收入、PPOP和归母净利润增速（累计同比）

.................................1图

2：上市银行总资产季度环比........................................................................................4图

3：一季度信贷投放保持积极........................................................................................5图

4：同业资产增速回升明显............................................................................................5图

5：上市银行总负债季度环比........................................................................................6图

6：一季度存款增长明显

...............................................................................................7图

7：同业负债增速下降...................................................................................................7图

8：21Q1上市银行中收增速进一步走高至

11.0%.....................................................12图

9：当季大行及城商行中收增速改善最为明显............................................................12图

10：上市银行非息收入及其他非息收入累计同比增速情况

.......................................14图

11：上市银行不良率..................................................................................................16图

12：上市银行拨备覆盖率

..........................................................................................18表格目录表

1：上市银行成本收入比（累计）.................................................................................1表

2：A股上市银行收入及盈利增长情况（累计同比）....................................................3表

3：上市银行资产及细项同比增长情况

.........................................................................5表

4：上市银行负债及细项同比增长情况

.........................................................................7表

5：上市银行利息业务增速情况（累计同比）...............................................................8表

6：期初期末平均法计算各家银行息差情况

...............................................................10表

7：上市银行公布净息差

.............................................................................................11表

8：上市银行手续费及佣金净收入增速

......................................................................12表

9：上市银行其他非息收入规模

.................................................................................14表

10：各家银行不良贷款率情况...................................................................................16表

11：上市银行关注率及逾期率情况............................................................................17表

12：各家银行拨备覆盖率情况...................................................................................19表

13：上市银行信用成本及拨贷比情况........................................................................20表

14：上市银行盈利预测与估值对比............................................................................21请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5▍

业绩概览：信用成本节约助力盈利增长一季度上市银行业绩增速延续回升趋势。一季度上市银行归母净利润同比+4.6%（2020年累计同比+0.7%），业绩增速持续回升。拆分来看：1）收入端：一季度上市银行营收同比+3.7%（2020年累计同比+5.5%），贷款重定价及交投业务高基数对收入带来阶段性影响。2）成本端：一季度成本收入比同比提高

0.7pct至

23.5%，分子端部分优惠政策退出、分母端收入增速放缓共同所致。3）拨备端：一季度上市银行信用减值损失/拨备前利润比例同比下降

1.09pct至

38.62%，资产质量运行预期进一步趋稳带来拨备节约，当季拨备覆盖水平继续提升，为后续信用成本节约打下基础。图

1：上市银行营业收入、PPOP和归母净利润增速（累计同比）营业收入PPOP归母净利润17.5%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%13.7%12.0%10.3%9.0%15.5%6.8%7.0%5.8%5.3%6.1%5.5%12.4%7.2%4.6%3.7%11.7%7.7%10.2%6.9%7.3%5.6%6.3%2.5%0.0%2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q10.7%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-7.7%-9.4%资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部表

1：上市银行成本收入比（累计）成本收入比（累计）20Q320Q120Q218.5%19.5%24.6%23.4%27.5%51.8%24.2%22.1%28.2%20.0%21.0%21.3%25.4%24.8%27.3%23.3%20Q421Q117.6%18.9%22.3%23.4%26.0%51.9%23.2%23.7%26.5%21.8%19.8%22.6%24.8%24.8%28.1%25.1%工行建行农行中行交行邮储大银行中信招商民生兴业浦发光大华夏平安浙商16.6%17.8%22.7%23.9%27.2%52.0%22.9%22.1%25.6%18.9%19.0%18.8%24.5%23.1%27.9%25.8%19.5%22.3%23.7%29.2%26.7%26.8%57.9%28.0%26.7%33.3%26.2%23.8%23.8%26.4%27.9%29.1%26.0%20.8%26.0%24.8%27.9%54.1%25.5%23.0%29.9%23.1%21.8%22.3%24.8%24.7%27.5%27.2%请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分1银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5成本收入比（累计）20Q320Q122.5%15.1%22.0%33.7%24.9%20.2%22.4%16.0%21.3%19.0%27.5%23.0%19.4%25.5%24.3%18.3%21.7%28.7%27.2%40.2%31.3%31.5%21.2%20.8%25.1%26.6%22.8%20Q223.8%16.7%24.5%33.8%23.4%22.4%23.7%17.2%22.6%17.4%27.0%22.8%23.6%26.0%25.3%17.6%22.4%28.8%23.5%39.7%31.1%28.0%24.5%24.1%26.4%27.6%24.0%20Q427.4%22.1%28.5%38.0%23.5%23.8%26.3%18.9%23.9%22.4%29.7%33.6%25.2%29.2%28.6%20.6%25.6%31.5%27.1%42.8%32.7%31.3%30.4%28.8%27.1%30.0%27.7%21Q124.1%18.3%25.1%34.3%22.1%23.8%21.4%17.2%21.1%21.3%29.7%25.2%21.0%26.8%32.4%18.3%23.1%32.3%26.4%40.2%33.8%32.2%31.5%23.5%26.1%28.6%23.5%股份行北京25.0%18.9%26.3%34.9%22.6%23.0%24.6%17.7%22.2%18.9%27.5%26.6%24.2%27.4%29.3%18.1%23.4%28.3%24.2%40.2%32.3%29.7%25.6%26.4%26.6%28.4%25.2%南京宁波江苏贵阳杭州上海成都郑州长沙青岛西安苏州厦门重庆城商行江阴无锡常熟苏农张家港紫金青农商渝农商农商行合计资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部个体而言：行业内部分化趋势延续，优质银行增速回升至双位数。1、大银行经营稳定：一季度归母净利润同比+2.5%（2020年累计同比+1.9%），除邮储外其他五大行盈利增速均在

1%-3%附近。2、股份行内部分化明显：一季度同比+8.4%（2020年累计同比-3.3%），内部经营分化差异较大，平安、招行、兴业、华夏等利润增速超过

10%。3、城商行整体增速较快：一季度同比+10.2%（2020年累计同比+4.0%），江苏、宁波、杭州、青岛、苏州等行增速较快，整体经营改善明显。4、农商行整体平稳：一季度同比+6.0%（2020年同比-5.0%），部分农商行

PPOP增速下降较多。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5表

2：A股上市银行收入及盈利增长情况（累计同比）营业收入PPOP归母净利润2020Q43.2%7.1%4.9%3.0%5.9%3.4%4.6%3.8%7.7%2.5%12.0%3.0%7.3%12.5%11.3%2.9%6.9%1.9%6.2%17.2%15.7%9.6%15.9%1.9%14.7%8.3%5.9%9.6%4.3%10.0%23.2%9.2%8.7%-1.6%10.1%2.1%6.6%8.9%-4.2%9.6%5.8%5.3%5.5%2021Q13.2%2020Q44.3%7.5%6.4%3.5%6.0%0.3%5.2%5.3%5.3%3.0%14.8%1.2%8.4%16.7%12.0%3.2%7.2%3.1%4.4%10.6%19.0%13.4%19.6%3.1%18.8%14.3%7.3%6.4%4.6%13.5%23.6%10.6%9.5%-1.3%14.0%-5.4%9.7%8.7%-5.3%12.0%7.9%6.2%6.1%2021Q12.8%2020Q41.2%1.6%1.8%2.9%1.3%5.4%1.9%2.0%4.8%-36.3%1.2%-1.0%1.3%-2.9%2.6%-4.8%-3.3%0.2%5.2%9.7%3.1%2.1%8.1%2.9%8.5%-3.6%5.1%4.8%3.0%4.0%6.5%5.1%4.0%4.4%5.0%1.0%4.2%4.9%1.7%4.8%-13.9%-5.0%0.7%2021Q11.5%2.8%2.6%2.7%2.3%5.5%2.5%8.2%15.2%-11.4%13.7%7.7%6.3%10.6%18.5%1.1%8.4%3.5%9.3%18.3%22.8%4.4%16.3%6.0%18.1%2.8%5.1%16.3%-8.0%14.7%7.4%4.1%10.2%8.6%6.0%4.8%4.8%14.2%2.2%7.0%5.5%6.0%4.6%工行建行农行中行交行邮储大银行中信招商民生兴业浦发光大华夏平安浙商股份行北京南京宁波江苏贵阳杭州上海成都郑州长沙青岛西安苏州厦门重庆城商行江阴无锡常熟苏农张家港紫金青农商渝农商农商行合计3.4%3.4%4.1%3.8%6.6%3.2%5.1%10.2%7.3%7.1%4.4%3.9%0.8%-1.3%9.1%10.6%-12.7%10.8%-10.6%3.7%-16.1%9.5%-15.0%3.0%0.1%-2.0%10.0%-2.6%-0.5%-6.8%-2.6%21.0%21.4%-18.8%16.2%4.0%10.2%-3.4%1.7%-3.2%1.6%21.8%17.1%-14.7%14.2%5.6%19.9%-14.4%1.2%20.1%-17.1%-2.1%-5.4%5.5%-2.6%7.7%7.7%4.6%-16.1%10.4%5.9%-25.1%8.7%3.8%-4.3%3.6%-9.4%4.7%5.0%4.9%-0.8%6.7%-4.4%5.0%-22.1%-6.1%7.4%-32.9%-9.6%6.1%1.2%-1.7%2.5%3.7%资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分3银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5▍

资产负债：信贷支撑资产扩张，负债增速保持平稳资负：信贷及存款支撑资负增长。资产端，21Q1上市银行总资产增幅+4.0%（去年同期+5.5），总体保持稳步扩张趋势。一季度银行积极把握信贷需求旺盛的有力条件，强化高收益的信贷资产投放，贷款/总资产占比提高

0.5pct至

54.7%。负债端，一季度上市银行负债环比+4.1%，与资产增速匹配；其中，存款/总负债占比较年初提高

0.5pct至

75.3%，反映负债结构进一步改善，当季同业利率趋势向下，部分中小行亦阶段性提升了同业负债运用。资产投放：资产扩张积极，信贷为主要支撑总量来看，一季度银行业资产保持积极扩张。一季度上市银行总资产环比+4.0%，虽然比

2020年同期有所回落，但仍高于

2018及

2019年，整体资产扩张保持积极。预计后续社融增速将有所回落，一季度资产增速或为年内高点。图

2：上市银行总资产季度环比20182019202020216.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%5.5%4.0%3.6%2.3%2.0%2.1%1.8%1.2%1.8%1.6%1.6%0.9%0.5%Q1Q2Q3Q4资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部结构来看，一季度资产增长主要来自信贷投放积极。一季度上市银行资产增长主要来自信贷投放，一方面与信贷需求旺盛，银行追求“早投放、早收益”有关，另一方面也与货币政策回归常态化，资金市场利率较去年同期有所上升有关。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分4银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5图

3：一季度信贷投放保持积极图

4：同业资产增速回升明显贷款

投资

同业贷款QoQ投资QoQ同业QoQ(亿元)120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000025.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q1-5.0%-10.0%(20,000)资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：投资包含

FVTPL项下资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：投资包含

FVTPL项下资产资产个体而言，大银行及城农商行资产增速较快。一季度大银行、股份行、城商行、农商行总资产环比分别+4.5%/+2.4%/+5.0%/+4.8%。各家上市银行资产均保持正增长，苏州及常熟资产增速超过

10%，资产投放较为积极。表

3：上市银行资产及细项同比增长情况2020Q4(YoY)信贷2021Q1(YoY)总资产10.7%10.6%9.4%投资12.3%11.9%5.4%1.4%7.7%6.5%7.9%11.7%14.6%-2.9%7.2%10.5%16.5%11.8%9.2%2.0%8.8%1.0%7.1%20.5%8.0%0.6%22.0%同业总资产7.1%信贷投资6.8%同业3.2%工行建行农行中行交行邮储大银行中信招商民生兴业浦发光大华夏平安浙商股份行北京南京宁波江苏贵阳杭州11.1%11.7%13.6%8.8%-3.5%-5.6%22.5%18.9%-11.9%24.0%6.4%11.2%10.6%13.4%8.5%8.4%11.2%3.5%-22.2%12.4%1.3%8.8%7.2%7.5%5.0%8.0%10.3%14.9%11.5%11.9%12.0%10.5%15.2%14.1%11.0%12.6%14.8%16.3%12.8%8.4%6.9%10.7%14.2%11.2%11.8%12.3%90.9%15.1%15.3%9.1%1.6%8.7%11.1%9.6%10.8%8.1%7.1%6.0%6.2%-0.4%-7.0%-11.5%-20.9%-24.3%14.9%-38.8%92.2%38.2%81.1%-7.2%52.3%13.8%-48.5%86.1%43.9%10.3%11.3%12.7%4.0%23.0%18.0%-19.6%13.8%51.3%61.4%25.7%19.9%81.8%19.9%20.7%30.4%-33.9%34.0%10.1%-32.8%10.7%11.6%1.4%14.6%12.9%-8.0%2.8%10.5%13.5%13.4%12.5%13.4%13.7%11.3%6.0%7.8%10.5%6.7%2.8%11.0%10.1%1.6%11.6%10.7%12.7%8.8%10.6%13.7%15.4%22.9%13.4%17.8%25.9%15.8%12.3%19.2%2.8%5.2%8.7%-0.1%12.3%22.9%6.6%12.9%23.5%13.2%5.4%18.6%30.0%15.5%13.0%16.8%9.3%19.7%14.0%5.9%-2.3%18.0%14.2%18.1%请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分5银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.52020Q4(YoY)2021Q1(YoY)总资产10.1%16.8%9.5%信贷投资5.9%同业9.0%总资产11.6%24.6%4.1%信贷投资5.5%同业21.5%216.1%-53.1%4.6%上海12.9%22.5%21.5%21.0%19.6%12.4%17.3%30.0%14.4%15.9%14.3%17.4%19.8%15.1%18.8%18.4%21.9%16.2%17.7%12.2%15.7%28.8%21.5%20.1%19.3%10.7%16.6%30.3%16.6%17.5%15.0%19.1%17.6%15.0%18.9%18.0%19.8%19.6%18.6%14.7%成都5.1%99.3%81.8%-17.9%76.9%115.3%-37.3%21.0%-14.1%8.4%4.6%郑州-4.6%15.2%25.2%3.5%-8.4%17.8%21.1%5.9%长沙17.0%23.1%10.1%13.0%15.5%12.1%12.4%13.0%11.2%12.9%10.7%16.9%8.1%18.6%19.5%10.5%13.2%14.6%14.6%13.1%9.3%青岛120.7%116.7%9.8%西安苏州21.3%-1.3%19.6%8.9%10.5%-5.7%18.3%8.5%厦门77.6%9.5%重庆城商行江阴33.0%19.4%-32.9%42.9%-26.3%-5.6%37.2%68.6%-3.2%4.2%14.7%5.9%49.5%-0.2%-42.2%-18.9%135.9%11.4%76.2%-5.0%2.8%2.4%无锡12.6%18.2%8.3%11.5%16.6%10.7%16.2%4.0%常熟7.6%苏农19.4%17.1%4.9%张家港紫金16.5%11.2%20.9%13.4%14.3%8.7%青农商渝农商农商行合计19.1%10.3%12.2%10.3%12.6%13.9%12.4%8.3%19.2%15.5%14.0%6.3%9.4%0.1%资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：投资包含

FVTPL项下资产负债来源：存款增长为主，主动负债增速放缓总量来看，负债增速与资产匹配。一季度上市银行总负债环比+4.1%，增速与资产端匹配，负债增长有效支撑上市银行资产扩张。图

5：上市银行总负债季度环比20182019202020216.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%5.6%4.1%3.6%2.3%2.3%2.0%1.6%1.6%1.7%0.8%1.5%0.7%0.3%Q1Q2Q3Q4资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部结构来看，一季度负债增长以存款为主。一季度上市银行存款保持积极增长，资产收益下行趋势下，低成本的核心存款增长有助于缓解息差收窄压力。受货币政策回归常态化请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分6银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5影响，资金市场利率同比有所上升，以同业负债为代表的高成本的主动负债增速有所回落。图

6：一季度存款增长明显图

7：同业负债增速下降存款

债券

同业存款QoQ债券QoQ同业QoQ(亿元)100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000012.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q1(20,000)(40,000)资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部个体而言，负债结构差异明显。从一季度情况看，城农商行存款增长较快，大银行、股份行、城商行、农商行存款增速分别为+6.2%/+2.0%/+6.3%/+7.1%。宁波、常熟、南京、成都等存款增速超过

10%。表

4：上市银行负债及细项同比增长情况2020Q4(YoY)2021Q1(YoY)总负债11.0%11.0%9.1%存款债券7.4%同业21.7%1.8%总负债7.0%存款债券同业3.0%工行建行农行中行交行邮储大银行中信招商民生兴业浦发光大华夏平安浙商股份行北京南京宁波江苏贵阳9.3%12.0%9.8%8.2%12.1%11.7%6.7%9.9%10.8%9.8%8.6%12.8%-1.4%2.9%7.6%1.6%6.2%6.7%2.9%5.9%8.5%11.5%11.5%5.9%8.5%13.8%-2.8%18.9%32.7%17.5%-40.1%15.1%18.5%-22.4%17.0%32.2%17.8%42.4%19.8%37.5%66.5%21.2%-9.7%-7.8%12.0%11.9%-22.2%-12.7%23.8%13.5%23.2%-40.2%8.5%8.6%-18.8%-12.4%10.5%-4.3%2.8%0.6%8.6%7.0%6.7%0.9%7.7%7.8%8.9%-9.2%-17.4%4.3%6.6%10.4%9.6%11.2%9.7%10.5%8.0%-3.7%22.1%23.2%-3.8%-1.3%21.5%17.0%32.0%22.0%95.9%13.9%29.9%61.0%74.4%38.4%48.2%11.8%12.2%4.2%12.1%16.2%3.4%12.7%-40.1%17.2%5.4%12.2%28.7%-10.3%10.6%14.9%1.5%11.3%11.0%1.4%10.2%13.3%13.0%13.3%13.2%14.5%11.2%6.0%7.6%7.4%12.4%15.1%9.8%13.7%18.5%26.8%19.1%14.8%8.9%10.2%5.9%18.6%25.5%-25.9%9.4%12.3%11.1%13.5%8.7%9.7%16.6%11.3%7.1%-4.0%1.0%7.7%9.0%12.2%23.9%11.8%5.0%11.3%19.9%10.2%6.6%37.6%53.6%-13.0%35.4%8.5%-12.0%14.7%-18.4%20.0%12.7%5.6%请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分7银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.52020Q4(YoY)2021Q1(YoY)总负债13.2%10.3%16.0%9.0%存款债券3.0%同业5.5%总负债18.3%12.0%24.3%3.2%存款债券3.6%同业76.3%2.6%杭州13.7%9.4%14.3%12.7%20.9%-2.1%14.0%23.1%25.3%11.0%9.6%上海-0.6%6.4%10.2%42.0%25.5%1.2%30.1%36.5%-4.7%10.4%9.4%成都14.6%8.6%31.1%28.2%57.1%13.9%-48.7%35.0%6.2%郑州-11.5%4.9%长沙17.6%25.0%10.3%13.5%14.8%12.3%12.2%14.0%10.5%13.6%11.3%18.0%8.1%17.9%27.9%22.2%12.5%13.8%11.9%12.0%10.7%10.2%17.9%11.0%18.0%13.0%14.3%7.7%18.3%21.1%10.8%13.5%13.3%14.5%12.9%10.0%12.1%19.5%8.7%青岛-5.2%-31.5%-10.3%21.4%-4.1%-1.4%70.9%-19.7%-12.1%-20.4%-16.7%-31.1%15.0%1.1%48.7%58.4%-5.0%8.8%西安-28.0%-17.0%36.2%1.6%苏州厦门重庆20.8%13.0%-1.3%-54.4%-29.8%24.8%39.4%41.6%50.5%35.3%27.4%7.2%11.6%11.0%10.1%9.2%6.8%城商行江阴3.1%27.3%98.5%80.9%14.3%-61.5%11.3%-12.2%22.6%40.3%19.5%5.4%-71.1%-8.3%-36.8%1.6%无锡常熟21.8%16.4%18.7%16.2%16.7%8.2%苏农张家港紫金17.6%11.5%20.6%14.2%14.8%8.7%4.5%-2.7%23.3%22.3%12.4%15.4%青农商渝农商农商行合计19.2%10.7%12.6%10.2%11.1%10.2%-0.6%6.7%12.5%9.0%资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部▍

息差：负债成本节约对冲存量贷款重定价影响息差：环比小幅下行，负债成本管理适度对冲贷款重定价的负向影响。以期初期末平均法测算显示（已还原信用卡分期收入重分类影响），2021年一季度净息差

2.08%，较去年全年下降

6bps。1）资产端，收益率较上年全年走低

13bps至

3.84%，年初存量贷款重定价行为带来一次性扰动；2）负债端，付息率较上年全年小幅走低

6bps至

1.90%，高息存款监管继续推进创造有利条件，同时上市银行亦主动强化负债成本管理，部分缓解息差下行压力。表

5：上市银行利息业务增速情况（累计同比）利息收入利息支出利息净收入20Q42.8%8.8%6.6%0.3%0.4%6.5%4.5%3.4%21Q12.8%6.0%6.2%-1.9%-3.7%9.0%3.4%0.5%20Q43.4%21Q11.8%8.4%8.2%-7.8%-9.2%14.4%2.2%-0.3%20Q42.3%7.2%8.8%6.6%6.4%4.4%5.9%2.4%21Q13.5%4.3%4.8%3.7%4.9%5.8%4.3%1.3%工行建行农行中行交行邮储大银行中信10.9%3.6%-6.5%-3.4%10.0%2.7%4.4%请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分8银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5利息收入利息支出利息净收入20Q44.9%4.3%5.0%-0.9%5.4%8.0%5.4%7.4%4.2%1.4%5.7%18.7%11.5%9.3%9.7%5.2%14.0%10.7%11.5%18.3%13.8%8.5%14.5%13.5%8.8%6.2%6.9%6.6%4.5%11.6%-4.9%13.3%1.6%4.4%4.8%21Q11.9%-3.9%4.7%-0.6%2.2%7.3%3.0%6.5%1.6%-1.3%9.6%17.0%13.0%3.6%11.4%5.1%18.7%7.2%12.6%8.0%8.9%5.2%8.4%9.7%8.2%7.7%7.4%4.8%4.9%10.0%7.8%13.3%9.4%9.0%3.3%20Q42.1%-0.9%-4.0%2.1%2.5%2.2%-0.1%7.7%1.1%-0.3%2.8%13.1%-0.7%7.3%1.2%-1.0%14.9%0.6%9.6%17.6%17.5%1.7%2.2%8.2%3.3%8.9%3.9%12.6%7.2%9.5%-4.9%12.5%-0.7%3.5%2.3%21Q1-7.3%-7.8%-1.2%6.7%1.7%11.6%-3.5%5.9%-0.5%-2.6%4.2%3.8%0.7%8.0%7.0%1.9%17.5%9.7%14.9%14.3%9.2%4.4%6.7%9.3%4.1%15.7%8.2%13.2%7.5%26.0%13.4%20.0%9.4%12.6%1.7%20Q46.9%21Q18.2%0.7%12.1%-8.1%2.7%3.9%8.5%7.3%3.7%0.2%17.4%32.1%34.3%-1.2%17.1%9.8%19.9%4.3%10.3%1.4%8.6%6.1%9.3%10.3%13.5%0.0%6.5%-0.5%3.0%-1.0%2.2%7.2%9.5%5.8%4.8%招商民生兴业浦发光大华夏平安浙商股份行北京南京宁波江苏贵阳杭州上海成都郑州长沙青岛西安苏州厦门重庆城商行江阴无锡常熟苏农张家港紫金青农商渝农商农商行合计10.8%17.4%-4.1%8.6%13.2%10.8%7.0%7.4%3.5%10.4%25.3%36.9%11.3%22.1%14.6%13.2%24.6%13.3%19.0%9.8%17.1%36.3%20.9%16.6%3.5%10.6%2.9%2.4%13.1%-4.8%14.0%3.7%5.3%7.0%资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：2020年年报及

2021年一季报，部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述表格已进行重述处理负债成本节约缓解息差下行压力。考虑到

2020年年报及

2021年一季报中，部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，我们选择

2020年年报及2021年一季报中同口径下的可比数据进行分析。以期初期末平均法测算显示，2021年一季度上市银行净息差较去年一季度及去年全年均有所下降，主要是受存量贷款重定价影响，资产收益有所下行。同时，上市银行通过优化负债结构，压降负债成本，部分缓解了息差下行压力。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分9银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5表

6：期初期末平均法测算各家银行息差情况净息差（累计）生息资产收益率（累计）20Q121Q1计息负债成本率（累计）20Q12.19%2.23%2.18%1.82%1.55%2.42%2.10%2.19%2.59%2.15%2.06%2.30%2.35%2.64%2.97%2.32%2.35%1.99%1.93%2.35%1.78%2.56%1.94%1.66%2.14%2.37%2.62%2.32%2.17%2.48%1.62%2.20%2.13%2.17%2.06%3.32%2.52%2.93%1.97%2.52%2.35%2.43%2.16%20Q42.14%2.22%2.15%1.86%1.59%2.41%2.09%2.20%2.51%2.21%2.17%2.05%2.37%2.64%2.59%2.16%2.30%1.96%1.88%2.41%1.92%2.67%1.91%1.81%2.18%2.48%2.60%2.18%2.21%2.43%1.87%2.21%2.19%2.03%2.05%3.17%2.38%2.78%1.86%2.46%2.28%2.34%2.14%21Q12.09%2.14%2.08%1.77%1.53%2.38%2.02%2.13%2.54%1.73%2.16%1.88%2.27%2.50%2.93%2.21%2.21%1.91%2.05%2.63%2.09%2.42%1.99%1.75%2.10%2.33%2.45%1.99%2.14%2.25%1.53%2.15%2.19%1.93%1.94%2.92%2.36%2.53%1.86%2.19%2.32%2.28%2.08%20Q43.62%3.81%3.67%3.41%3.82%3.95%3.67%4.37%4.17%4.68%4.60%4.37%4.75%4.74%4.86%5.02%4.54%4.27%4.64%4.92%4.80%5.43%4.24%4.20%4.35%5.28%5.08%4.60%4.68%5.14%4.36%5.04%4.86%4.18%4.42%5.36%4.18%4.85%3.78%4.62%4.31%4.42%3.97%20Q11.64%1.76%1.69%1.84%2.69%1.54%1.78%2.51%1.90%2.68%2.55%2.40%2.49%2.35%2.62%2.87%2.44%2.50%2.68%2.45%2.91%2.79%2.53%2.44%2.22%2.67%2.48%2.41%2.69%2.60%2.71%3.04%2.60%2.23%2.48%2.32%2.03%2.24%2.10%2.16%2.34%2.27%2.02%20Q41.63%1.78%1.68%1.68%2.52%1.62%1.74%2.29%1.76%2.52%2.37%2.34%2.47%2.27%2.35%2.85%2.30%2.41%2.70%2.27%2.78%2.72%2.34%2.27%2.13%2.67%2.38%2.38%2.66%2.57%2.57%2.93%2.49%2.28%2.47%2.39%1.94%2.25%2.08%2.10%2.21%2.21%1.96%21Q11.54%1.75%1.68%1.60%2.32%1.61%1.69%2.26%1.60%2.43%2.34%2.30%2.33%2.35%2.27%2.68%2.23%2.28%2.54%2.12%2.64%2.88%2.36%2.26%2.19%2.78%2.44%2.27%2.69%2.41%2.58%2.94%2.42%2.32%2.44%2.29%2.01%2.41%2.19%2.18%2.29%2.27%1.90%工行建行农行中行交行邮储大银行中信招商民生兴业浦发光大华夏平安浙商股份行北京南京宁波江苏贵阳杭州上海成都郑州长沙青岛西安苏州厦门重庆城商行江阴无锡常熟苏农张家港紫金青农商渝农商农商行合计3.70%3.80%3.71%3.53%3.96%3.88%3.73%4.48%4.38%4.70%4.67%4.67%4.74%4.80%5.48%5.17%4.70%4.38%4.69%5.04%4.87%5.39%4.43%4.03%4.42%5.17%5.22%4.73%4.69%5.31%4.24%5.12%4.90%4.29%4.47%5.45%4.45%4.97%3.91%4.79%4.49%4.57%4.05%3.49%3.70%3.61%3.24%3.59%3.94%3.56%4.33%4.06%3.62%4.57%4.13%4.56%4.69%5.12%4.90%4.31%4.14%4.66%4.98%4.81%5.33%4.33%4.09%4.31%5.23%4.97%4.33%4.62%4.79%3.97%4.97%4.80%4.11%4.25%5.05%4.25%4.77%3.90%4.41%4.45%4.42%3.84%资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部测算

注：2020年年报及

2021年一季报，部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述表格已进行重述处理请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分10银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5一季度上市银行净息差整体有所下行。以

2021年一季度披露净息差的上市银行为样本，平均净息差较

2020年下行

3BP，宁波、南京、招行等息差表现较好，实现逆势上升，主要得益于资产结构优化、负债成本节约等因素。表

7：上市银行公布净息差20Q42.15%2.19%2.20%1.85%1.57%2.42%2.26%2.49%2.14%2.36%2.02%2.29%2.59%2.88%2.19%1.92%1.86%2.30%2.14%2.52%1.98%1.82%2.19%2.40%2.58%2.13%2.16%2.22%1.65%2.27%2.19%2.07%3.18%2.50%2.74%1.91%2.52%2.25%2.24%21Q12.14%2.13%未公布未公布1.54%2.40%未公布2.52%未公布未公布未公布未公布2.45%2.87%未公布未公布1.96%2.55%未公布2.23%未公布1.73%未公布未公布未公布2.02%未公布未公布未公布未公布未公布未公布未公布未公布未公布未公布未公布未公布2.21%变化-1bps-6bps工行建行农行中行交行-3bps-2bps邮储中信招商+3bps民生兴业浦发光大华夏-14bps-1bps平安浙商北京南京+10bps+25bps宁波江苏贵阳-29bps-9bps杭州上海成都郑州长沙青岛-11bps西安苏州厦门重庆江阴无锡常熟苏农张家港紫金青农商渝农商平均（有可比数据）-3bps资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分11银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5▍

非息表现：中收改善显著，其他非息扰动非息收入：中收改善明显，非息受利率走势错位扰动。1）手续费及佣金净收入显著改善：一季度上市银行手续费及佣金净收入同比+11.1%（去年全年同比+7.0%），去年同期低基数，叠加当季资本市场活跃带来的零售中间业务向好为主因。2）利率错位因素扰动非息增长：当季上市银行公允价值变动损益、投资收益分别较去年同期下降

100亿/262亿，去年一季度利率中枢快速下行抬高账面浮盈基数为主因。一季度，租赁、保险等行业景气度有所提升，使得其他业务收入中子公司收入增长呈现改善。低基数叠加市场向好，手续费及佣金净收入显著改善同期低基数，叠加零售中间业务向好，一季度上市银行手续费及佣金净收入增速走高至

11.1%。一季度上市银行手续费及佣金净收入同比增长

11.1%（去年全年同比+7.0%），主要源于：1）疫情期间低基数效应：去年一季度受疫情影响，银行部分柜面业务、现场业务开展受限，因此去年同期中收同比增速仅为

5.7%，上述因素为今年中收增长创造了较低的同比基数。2）一季度资本市场条件积极：一季度以代理基金为代表的零售代理业务持续向好（一季度公募基金份额同比增长接近

25%），驱动上市银行（尤其是零售型银行）的中收增长向好。如根据一季报披露，21Q1邮储银行代理业务净收入同比+128.6%，平安银行财富管理手续费同比+50.2%。图

8：21Q1上市银行中收增速进一步走高至

11.0%图

9：当季大行及城商行中收增速改善最为明显上市银行手续费及佣金净收入累计增速20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q111.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%7.0%6.7%5.7%5.6%0.0%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q1大银行股份行城商行农商行资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注

：2020年年报及

2021年一季报，部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述表格已进行重述处理资料来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：2020年年报及

2021年一季报，部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述表格已进行重述处理表

8：上市银行手续费及佣金净收入增速2020Q12020H0.5%4.3%2.9%2020Q30.3%2020N0.5%3.3%2.2%2021Q11.3%工行建行农行2.5%5.5%6.6%4.2%8.8%5.4%12.2%请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分12银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.52020Q12.1%2020H-0.4%5.0%2020Q30.6%2020N2.3%2021Q118.1%-0.5%中行交行邮储大银行中信招商民生兴业浦发光大华夏平安浙商股份行北京南京宁波江苏贵阳杭州上海成都郑州长沙青岛西安苏州厦门重庆城商行江阴无锡常熟苏农张家港紫金青农商渝农商农商行合计4.5%1.5%3.3%1.5%4.2%11.2%2.6%12.8%2.5%51.6%9.3%4.1%2.2%-4.1%15.2%4.1%5.9%1.0%7.9%24.0%23.3%-10.5%34.2%-14.5%6.7%8.5%10.7%0.9%11.2%-1.9%24.1%37.0%5.0%4.2%27.8%17.3%5.5%28.4%10.9%10.9%-4.1%7.2%27.4%26.5%8.1%-32.7%1.3%0.0%3.7%11.5%20.7%-14.3%13.2%-16.7%58.2%2.4%15.8%10.8%11.9%-6.8%16.6%41.8%10.5%-4.8%93.7%7.3%18.3%12.1%13.6%-9.8%25.0%24.1%17.9%18.1%101.7%9.5%111.5%8.0%15.4%9.8%-17.0%9.2%-13.7%21.4%46.5%12.7%8.9%47.9%3.1%48.3%-9.1%57.6%63.0%6.0%120.9%8.4%147.2%22.2%55.8%-16.8%2.7%41.2%16.8%-0.6%34.7%-27.9%10.7%-22.7%36.3%-4.3%92.6%-14.7%10.5%14.7%12.8%17.7%63.8%62.2%-5.8%73.5%69.2%-15.1%44.1%8.8%29.0%19.9%-0.9%63.4%-1.8%10.9%4.8%22.6%9.8%-6.3%39.0%8.5%8.2%29.0%63.8%24.8%-22.2%19.4%48.4%102.8%191.8%1.4%32.5%-0.1%9.3%4.3%16.4%16.9%48.8%50.1%-20.8%13.5%-25.8%22.0%49.8%8.2%9.7%15.9%1.2%32.4%46.1%-38.4%139.2%72.5%-46.6%35.8%22.6%15.0%5.7%90.6%-31.1%1.6%-234.2%-43.9%52.0%29.7%21.0%7.0%143.3%-45.7%92.7%-13.7%11.3%11.0%12.6%5.6%10.7%6.7%资料来源：公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：（1）2020年年报及

2021年一季报，部分银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述表格已进行重述处理利率走势错位致其他非息增速偏弱一季度上市银行非息收入同比-9.5%，利率走势错位使得投资交易类收入受到高基数请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分13银行业

2021年一季报回顾｜2021.5.5效应影响。拆分来看，一季度上市银行公允价值变动损益同比-47.2%，投资收益同比-27.4%，主要是去年一季度抗疫期间利率中枢下行导致部分银行账面浮盈增加抬高了基数，另外利率中枢仍处于修复过程，投资收益亦有一定程度负面影响。一季度保险、租赁等行业的经营转暖，使其他业务收入中的子公司贡献提升，从而起到一定抵补作用。图

10：上市银行非息收入及其他非息收入累计同比增速情况非息收入累计同比增速其他非息收入累计同比增速6.1%8.0%5.6%6.0%4.1%4.1%4.0%2.0%5.4%0.3%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%-10.0%-12.0%1.6%-6.0%-9.6%21Q1-9.6%20Q320Q120Q220Q4资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部

注；非息收入累计增速中，已根据

2020年年报以及

2021年一季报中对信用卡分期收入进行相应重述表

9：上市银行其他非息收入规模（单位：亿元）其他非息收入合计

#投资收益2020Q1#公允价值变动损益#汇兑损益其他业务收入2020Q1254305259240157552021Q1264283240258173482021Q175577457263332229531276321772020Q15852021Q1-18-52020Q12021Q12020Q12021Q1工行建行农行中行交行邮储大银行中信招