ITIF-气候技术值得关注：绿色氨（英）

Climate-Tech

to

Watch:

Green

AmmoniaHANNAHBOYLES

|

APRIL

2023Greenammoniahasattractedplentyofrecentattention.Thetechnologyispromising,butcostreductions,demonstrations,infrastructure,and

marketgrowthare

allstillneededif

it

is

torealize

itspotential.KEY

TAKEAWAYS.Thetransition

tonet-zero

CO

globalenergysystemswillrequirecountriestodeploya2rangeof

transformationaltechnologies.Greenammoniais

envisionedtoplayaroleintransitioningheavyindustryandagriculturesystemsaswell

asbeingalow-carbon

energycarrier.....Currentammoniaproduction

is

responsiblefor1.8percentofglobalCO

emissions.Producingthehydrogenneededto

make

ammoniafromwaterelectrolysis

andrenewableenergy

(e.g.,greenammonia)isarouteto

significantlyreduce

carbon

emissions.2Theglobalgreenammoniaindustry

is

stillin

its

earlystages,withonlyafewpilotprojectsinoperation,butithasattracted

theattentionof

industryplayersandgovernmentsaroundtheworld.Bringingthe

costsdown,

improvingefficiency,increasingproduction

scale,

andexpandingpipelineinfrastructurewill

becrucialfornewapplicationsandtheincreaseddemandenvisioned.DOEshouldenabletheuseofgreenhydrogeninexistingammoniaproductionbysupportingdemonstration-scaleprojectscoupledwithRD&Deffortsincatalysis,

reactordesign,andseparationstofurtherreduce

costs.Publicfundingfordemonstrationsofnewenduseswillhelpcreateamarketfor

green

ammonia.WHAT

IS

IT?Ammonia,acolorlessgaswidelyusedtoproducefertilizer,hasbecomethe

subjectofintenseinterestduetoitspromiseasanenergycarrierandzero-carbonfuel.Producingammonia

isenergy

intensiveand

typicallyinvolvesareaction

of

fossil-derivedhydrogen

andnitrogenobtainedfromtheatmosphere.Mostof

theassociatedcarbonemissionsarefromtheuseofnaturalgasasafeedstockforthehydrogenprecursor.Alternatively,producingthehydrogen

fromwaterelectrolysiswhereinrenewableelectricityis

theenergysource(e.g.,

greenammonia)isaroute

tosignificantlyreducethecarbonemissionsfromammoniaproduction.1WHY

IS

IT

IMPORTANT?

GREEN

AMMONIA

AS

A

CROSSCUTTING

CLIMATESOLUTIONThetransition

toanet-zerocarbondioxide

(CO

)globalenergysystemwillrequire

countriesto2deployawiderangeof

transformativelow-carbontechnologiesin

orderto

changehowenergyisgenerated,transported,andused.Green

ammoniaisenvisioned

toplayseveralrolesinbreakingthedependenciesbetweenenergyuseandCO

emissions(e.g.,decarbonization)

inheavy2industryand

agriculturesystemsas

wellasbeingalow-carbonenergycarrier.2Currentglobalammoniaproduction,

mainly

foruseasafeedstocktoproducefertilizer,

is

roughly194milliontonperyearandis

responsiblefor1.8percentofglobalCO

emissions.3

Widespread2adoptionofgreenammoniacouldtherefore

significantlyreduceagriculture’scarbon

footprint.Arecentstudyestimatesthatusinggreenammoniaforfertilizer,heat,andfuel

could

reducethefossilenergyconsumptionofcornandothersmallgrain

cropsby90percent.4Beyondagriculture,greenammonia

offers

additionaldecarbonizationoptionsacrossotherindustries.It

has

ahigh

energydensityand—unlikehydrogen—doesnotneedtobestoredatextremelylowtemperaturesorhighpressures,

makingit

easierto

transport.5

Thesepropertiesareespeciallyrelevantinthe

maritimesector,whichisresponsibleforroughly3percentofglobalemissions.6

TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)seesammoniaas

avitalsolutionfordecarbonizingshipping,

potentiallyaddressing45

percentofenergydemandby2050.7Greenammoniamayalsoplayan

importantroleas

anenergycarrierinthe

powersector.

It

is

agoodcandidate

for

transportinghydrogen,andcan

alsobeusedas

along-durationstoragemediumtoprovide

electricityat

timeswhenrenewablegeneration

is

low.In

this

case,

variablerenewableenergy(e.g.,wind,solar)couldbeused

tomakehydrogenand

thenammonia,whichcouldbestored.Wheneverenergyuse

isneeded,

theammoniacouldbe

reconvertedtoprovidethatenergy.And,asstoringpowerforinter-seasonalperiodsiscostly,ammoniacouldreducecosts

inthisarea.8INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

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APRIL2023PAGE2Figure

1:

Role

of

green

ammonia

in

future

energy

systemsINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

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APRIL2023PAGE3Scalingupglobalammoniaproductiondoes,however,comewithattendantrisks.Ammoniaistoxic,andthoughit

isnotitselfagreenhousegas,ammonia

leakscan

interactwithotherairbornechemicalsto

formfineparticulatematterthatultimatelyaffectsair

quality.9

Inaddition,burningammoniainstead

offossilfuelsgenerates

nitrogenoxides(NOx),althoughexistingtechnologiescan

minimizethese

emissions.10Figure

1illustratesthelandscapeofammoniageneration

anduses.GLOBAL

PROGRESSTheglobalgreenammoniaindustry

is

stillin

its

earlystages,but

it

hasattractedtheattentionofindustryplayersand

governmentsaround

theworld,withpilotplantsalreadyinoperation,includingthose

inBritain

andJapanthatarepoweredbywindenergy.Severalcompaniesalsohavecommercial-scaleplantsindevelopment.NorwegianchemicalcompanyYara

isbuildingaplanttoproduce3,500

tonsofgreenammoniaannuallyinAustralia.The

largestprojectannouncedto

date

is

in

SaudiArabia.Oncecomplete

in2025,it

willprovide1.2million

tonsofgreenammoniaannually.11Inparallel,

manycompaniesandgovernmentsaresupporting

research

into

newapplicationsforgreenammonia.

Mitsubishiisdevelopingturbinestodirectlycombustammonia,and

Japanhasfundedaprojecttoretrofitshipstorun

onammoniaby2024.LeadingmaritimeenginemanufacturersMANand

Wärtsilähavebothannouncedplans

to

makeinternalcombustionengines

thatcanrunonammoniacommerciallyavailableby2024.12PROGRESS

IN

THE

USGreenammoniaiscurrentlyonlyproduced

atapilotscaleintheUnitedStates,but

majoreffortsareunderwaytoachieve

commercialization.TheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)hasplayedaninstrumentalroleinfundingearly-stageresearch,development,anddemonstration

(RD&D)projects

for

producinggreenammonia.ThroughtheAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency-Energy(ARPA-E)REFUELprogram,DOEhasfundedcomponenttechnologiesandpilotsystemsfortheproductionanduseof

ammoniaas

acarbon-neutralliquidfuel.

FollowingtheREFUELprogram,ARPA-Eawardedan

additional$10

millionto

the

ResearchTriangleInstitutetodemonstratetheproductionanduseof

renewableammonia.13

Additionally,theDOEOfficeofBasicEnergySciencehas

fundedsixfundamentalresearchprojectstohelpdecarbonizetheexistingammoniamarket.14CFIndustries,theworld’slargestammoniaproducer,announcedplansto

buildagreen

ammoniaplantin2020inLouisiana.Itwill

produce20,000tonsof

greenammoniaperyearonce

itbeginsoperationsin2023.15KEY

POLICY

ISSUES:

INNOVATION

TO

ADDRESS

COST

AND

SCALE.Effortsby

industrytoproducegreen

ammoniaatscaleareaidedbyfederalsupportforlow-carbonhydrogenproduction.TheBipartisan

InfrastructureLawappropriates$9.5billiontosupportthegrowingcleanhydrogen

market,andtheInflationReductionAct

of2022providesfurtherincentives,includingaproduction

taxcredit.16Despite

recentincentives,greenammoniastillfacessignificantbarriersto

becomingcompetitive,especiallyin

newenduses

suchasshipping.At

itscurrentcost—roughly$794

to$1,543perton—greenammoniaisunlikelytobe

competitivein

theglobal

fertilizermarketor

asINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

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APRIL2023PAGE4asolution

inothersectors.Forexistingapplications,green

ammoniawillhaveto

meetthe

costsoffossilfuels,which

rangefrom$121

to$375perton.17Forgreenammoniatobecomeaviable

low-carbon

fuelforshipping,

itwillneedtobeeconomicallycompetitive

withthefossilfuelsthatarecurrentlyused

inshipping,includingheavyfueloil(HFO)and

marinegasoil(MGO).Greenammoniawillalsohavetocompeteagainstotherlow-carbon

alternatives

suchasbiodiesel.18Figure

2:

Comparative

cost

ranges

for

shipping

fuel,

per

gigajoule19LiquefiedNaturalGasHeavyFuelOilMarineGasoilBiodieselGreen

Ammonia$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70Usingammoniaforpowergeneration

orenergystorageintroducesadditionaleconomicandtechnicalconsiderations.

Onesuchfactoris

round-tripefficiency,whichmeasurestheefficiencyofconverting

renewableenergytoammonia,

storingandtransportingthe

ammonia,and

thenconverting

theammoniabackintoelectricity.Theend-to-endefficiencyofgreenammoniaisonlybetween11and19percent,meaning

the

resultingpowerwillbe

between

fiveandninetimesmore

expensive

than

the

originalpowerusedtoproducetheammonia.Modelingofammonia-firedpowerinJapanfindsthatgeneratingpowerfrom

ammoniawouldcostabouttwiceas

muchasrenewableenergyduetothe

lowround-tripefficiency.

While

theefficiencymayimprove,greenammoniaisunlikelytobecome

acompetitivepowersource.20Bringingthe

costsdown,

improvingefficiency,increasingproduction

scale,

andexpandingpipeline

infrastructurewill

becrucialfornewapplicationsand

theincreaseddemandenvisioned.DOEplaysan

importantrolein

overcoming

these

barriersbyfundingRD&Dtoaccelerateinnovation.Researchintosuchareasasnewcatalysts,

reactordesigns,and

separation

strategiescanimprovethe

efficiencyofammoniaproduction

andbringdowncosts.ARPA-EfundsseveralRD&Dprojectsrelatedto

low-carbonammoniathroughthe$36

millionREFUELprogram.PublicINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

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APRIL2023PAGE5RD&Dfundingisalsoneededtoaddressenvironmentaland

safetychallengesassociatedwithammonia

combustion,including

developingandtestingmethodsto

reduce

NOxemissions.

21Policies

thatsupportend-userdemandforgreenammoniaarealsoessential.Forexample,DOErecently

funded

twoprojectstostudythe

useof

ammoniaingas

turbines.22

Similarly,theInternationalMaritimeOrganizationisworkingto

develop

guidelinesforthesafeuseofammoniaasamarinefuel,which

wouldhelp

expanddemand.23LOOKING

FORWARDGreenammoniahasattractedplentyofrecentattention.The

technologyispromising,butcostreductions,demonstrations,infrastructure,and

marketgrowthare

allstillneededif

it

is

torealize

itspotential.

Inadditionto

thecostreductions,governmentRD&Disneededtosupporteffortsto

remove

technicalbarrierssuchas

lowround-tripefficiency.AcknowledgmentsTheauthorwouldliketothankEdRightorandRobinGasterfortheirhelpwith

thisreport.About

This

SeriesInnovationtomakeenergyclean,affordable,andreliableshouldbeacentralgoalofclimateandenergypolicy,becausethesoberingrealityis

that

climatechangecausedbyunabatedcombustionoffossilfuelswillcontinueuntilclean

systemsmatch

conventionalsystemsinpriceandperformance.But

thegoodnewsis

thatthereisawide

rangeof

opportunitiestodojustthat—ifinnovationpolicyhelpsthe

privatesector

unlockthem.Inthisseriesofbriefings,ITIF’sCenterfor

CleanEnergyInnovationprovidesoverviewsofpromisingclimatetechnologies,highlightingprogressthathasbeenmadeonthem,whatstillneedstobe

done,andwhattheUnitedStatescando

tobringthemtomaturitysotheycancontributetothetransitiontonet-zeroemissions.About

the

AuthorHannahBoylesisaresearchassistantwithITIF’sCenterforCleanEnergyInnovation.Previously,Boyleswas

aresearchassistantatthe

WeldonCooperCenter

andtheROMACLabinCharlottesville,Virginia,and

hasinternedwiththe

AmericanEnergySociety.Boylesholdsabachelor

ofsciencedegreein

aerospaceengineering

fromtheUniversityofVirginia.About

ITIFTheInformationTechnologyand

InnovationFoundation(ITIF)is

an

independent501(c)(3)nonprofit,nonpartisanresearchandeducationalinstitutethathasbeenrecognizedrepeatedlyastheworld’sleadingthinktankfor

scienceandtechnologypolicy.Itsmissionistoformulate,evaluate,andpromotepolicysolutionsthat

accelerateinnovationandboost

productivitytospurgrowth,opportunity,andprogress.

Formore

information,visit/about.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

|

APRIL2023PAGE6ENDNOTES1.

“Ammonia:zero-carbon

fertiliser,

fuelandenergystorage”(TheRoyalSociety,

February2020),/-/media/policy/projects/green-ammonia/green-ammonia-policy-briefing.pdf.2.

InternationalEnergyAgency

(IEA),

Ammonia

TechnologyRoadmapTowardsmoresustainablenitrogen

fertilizerproduction

(IEA,October2021),/assets/6ee41bb9-8e81-4b64-8701-2acc064ff6e4/AmmoniaTechnologyRoadmap.pdf.3.

“Ammonia”(TheRoyalSociety).4.

NicolaJones,

“From

FertilizertoFuel:Can‘Green’AmmoniaBeaClimateFix?”

Yale360,

January20,

2022/features/from-fertilizer-to-fuel-can-green-ammonia-be-a-climate-fix.5.

MariaGallucci,“WhytheShippingIndustryisBettingBigon

Ammonia,”

Spectrum

IEEE,February23,

2021,/why-the-shipping-industry-is-betting-big-on-ammonia.6.

Ibid.7.

IEA,NetZeroby2050ARoadmap

fortheGlobalEnergySector

(IEA,May2021),/assets/deebef5d-0c34-4539-9d0c-10b13d840027/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf.8.

IEA,

Ammonia

TechnologyRoadmap.9.

Jonathan

Lewis,“FuelsWithoutCarbon”(Clean

AirTaskForce(CATF),

December

2018),https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Fuels_Without_Carbon.pdf.10.

NickAshandTimScarbrough,

“Sailingon

SolarCould

green

ammoniadecarbonizeinternationalshipping?”(EnvironmentalDefenseFund(EDF),

May2019),/news/2019/02/05/shipping-can-reduce-climate-pollution-and-draw-investment-developing-countries;PaulWolfram

etal.,“Usingammonia

as

ashippingfuelcoulddisruptthe

nitrogen

cycle,”NatureEnergy(October2022),1112–1114,/10.1038/s41560-022-01124-4.11.

Jones,

“FromFertilizertoFuel.”12.

IEA,Ammonia

TechnologyRoadmap.13.

Research

Triangleinstitute(RTI),“RTIInternationalAwarded$10millionfromU.S.

DepartmentofEnergy’sARPA-EtoDemonstrateRenewableAmmonia

Production

andUse,”newsrelease,

May6,2021,

/news/rti-international-awarded-funding-us-department-energy;

“RenewableEnergytoFuelsThroughUtilizationofEnergy-DenseLiquids,”ARPA-e,

accessed

February16,

2023,/technologies/programs/refuel.14.

TrevorBrown,“USDOEfundingresearch

intosustainableammoniasynthesis,”

AmmoniaEnergyAssociation,

January27,

2017,

/articles/us-doe-funding-research-into-sustainable-ammonia-synthesis/.15.

Jones,

“From

FertilizertoFuel.”16.

U.S.Dep