BP：2023年度能源展望

bp

Energy

Outlook2023

edition2|Energy

Outlook2023

exploresthe

key

trendsand

uncertaintiessurrounding

theenergy

transition.Energy

Outlook

2023

isfocusedonthreemainscenarios:Accelerated,Net

Zero

andNew

Momentum.Thesescenariosare

notpredictionsof

whatislikely

to

happenorwhatbpwouldlike

to

happen.Rathertheyexplorethepossibleimplicationsof

differentjudgementsandassumptionsconcerningthenatureof

theenergytransitionandtheuncertaintiesaroundthosejudgements.Thescenariosare

basedonexistingtechnologiesanddonotconsiderthepossibleimpactofentirelynew

orunknowntechnologies.Themanyuncertaintiessurroundingthetransitionof

theglobalenergysystemmeanthattheprobabilityof

any

oneof

thesescenariosmaterializingexactlyasdescribedisnegligible.Moreover,

thethreescenariosdonotprovideacomprehensiverangeof

possiblepathsforthetransitionahead.Theydo,however,

spanawiderangeof

possibleoutcomesandsohelpto

illustratethekey

uncertaintiessurroundingenergymarketsoutto

2050.Thescenariosinthisyear’s

Outlook

have

beenupdatedto

take

accountof

twomajordevelopmentsover

thepastyear:theRussia-Ukrainewarandthepassingof

theInflationReductionActintheUS.Asidefromupdatingfor

thosetwodevelopments,thescenariosare

basedlargelyontheanalysisandscenariosinEnergy

Outlook

2022.Theydonotincludeacomprehensiveassessmentof

allthechangesanddevelopmentssinceOutlook

2022.TheEnergy

Outlook

isproducedto

informbp’s

strategyandispublishedasacontributionto

thewiderdebateaboutthefactorsshapingtheenergytransition.ButtheOutlook

isonlyonesourceamongmanywhenconsideringthefutureof

globalenergymarketsandbpconsidersawiderangeof

otherexternalscenarios,analysisandinformationwhenformingitslong-termstrategy.3|bp

Energy

Outlook:

2023

edition4|Fromanenergyperspective,thedisruptionsto

Russianenergysuppliesandtheresultingglobalenergyshortagesseemlikely

toLastyear’s

Energy

Outlook

didnotincludeany

analysisof

thepossibleimplicationsofthewarinUkraine.ThescenariosinOutlookhave

amaterialandlastingimpact

2023

have

beenupdatedto

takeontheenergysystem.accountof

thewar,

aswell

asof

thepassingof

theInflationReductionActintheUS.Globalenergypoliciesanddiscussionsinrecentyearshavebeenfocusedontheimportanceof

decarbonizingtheenergysystemandthetransitionto

netzero.

Theevents

of

thepastyearhave

servedasareminderto

usallthatthistransitionalsoneedsto

take

accountof

thesecurityandaffordabilityof

energy.At

thetimeof

writing,thewariscontinuingwithnoendinsight.As

such,any

analysisofitspossibleimplicationsmustbetreatedaspreliminary.However,theexperiencefromthemajorenergysupplyshocksof

the1970s

suggeststhateventsthatheightenedenergysecurityconcernscanhave

significantandpersistentimpactsonenergymarkets.Welcome

to

the2023edition

of

bp’sEnergy

Outlook.ThepastyearhasbeenTogether

thesethreedimensionsof

theenergysystem–security,affordability,andsustainability–make

uptheenergytrilemma.Anysuccessfulandenduringenergytransitionneedstodominatedby

theterribleconsequencesof

theRussia-Ukrainewaranditsawfultollonlivesandcommunities.Ourthoughtsandhopesare

withallthoseaffected.addressallthreeelementsof

thetrilemma.Mostimportantly,thedesireof

countriesto

bolstertheirTheseissues,togetherwiththeinterconnectednessof

theglobalbroaderimplicationsof

theenergy

energysystemandtheneedtoenergysecurityby

reducingtheirdependencyonimportedenergy–dominatedby

fossilfuels–andinsteadhave

accessto

moredomesticallyproducedenergy–muchof

whichislikely

to

comefromrenewablesandothernon-fossilenergysources–suggeststhatthewarislikely

to

acceleratethepaceof

theenergytransition.transition,are

exploredinthisyear’s

Energy

Outlook

usingthreemainscenarios:Accelerated,Net

Zero

andNew

Momentum.Together

thesescenariosspanawiderangeof

thepossibleoutcomesfor

theglobalenergysystemover

thenext30

years.Understandingthisrangeofuncertaintyhelpsbpto

shapeastrategywhichisresilienttothedifferentspeedsandwaysinwhichtheenergysystemmaytransition.addressallthreedimensionsoftheenergytrilemma.Ihopethisyear’s

Energy

Outlook

isusefultoeveryonetryingto

navigatethisuncertainfutureandacceleratethetransitionto

globalnetzero.As

always,any

feedbackontheOutlook

andhowitcanbeimprovedwouldbemostwelcome.Thescaleof

theeconomicandsocialdisruptionsover

thepastyearassociatedwiththelossofjustafractionof

theworld’sfossilfuelshasalsohighlightedtheneedfor

thetransitionaway

fromhydrocarbonsto

beorderly,

suchthatthedemandfor

hydrocarbons

events

inrecentyearshighlightfallsinlinewithavailablesupplies,

moreclearlythanever

theavoidingfutureperiodsof

energyshortagesandhigherprices.Thecontinuingriseincarbonemissionsandtheincreasingfrequencyof

extremeweatherSpencerDaleChiefeconomistimportanceof

adecisiveshifttowardsanet-zero

future.

Theevents

of

thepastyearhavehighlightedthecomplexityand5|bp

Energy

Outlook:

2023

edition6|Core

BeliefsThisyear’sOutlook

canbeusedto

identifyaspectsoftheenergytransitionthatarecommonacrossthemainscenarios.Thesetrendshelpshapecorebeliefsabouthowtheenergysystemmayevolveoverthenext30

years.thedecarbonizationchallengesuggestsgreatersupportisrequiredglobally,includingpoliciesto

facilitatequickerpermittingandapprovaloflow-carbon

energyandinfrastructure.Thestructureofenergydemandchanges,withtheimportanceoffossilfuelsdeclining,replacedbyagrowingshareofrenewableenergyandbyincreasingelectrification.Thetransitionto

alow-carbonworldrequiresarangeofotherenergysourcesandtechnologies,includinglow-carbon

hydrogen,modernbioenergy,andcarboncapture,useandstorage.Thedisruptionto

globalenergysuppliesandassociatedenergyshortagescausedbytheRussia-Ukrainewarincreasestheimportanceattachedto

addressingallthreeelementsoftheenergytrilemma:security,affordability,andsustainability.Thecarbonbudgetisrunningout.Despitethemarkedincreaseingovernmentambitions,CO2emissionshaveincreasedeveryyearsincetheParisCOPin2015(bar2020).Thelongerthedelayintakingdecisiveactionto

reduceemissionsonasustainedbasis,thegreaterarethelikelyresultingeconomicandsocialcosts.Oildemanddeclinesovertheoutlook,drivenbyfallinguseinroadtransportastheefficiencyofthevehiclefleetimprovesandtheelectrificationofroadvehiclesaccelerates.Evenso,oilcontinuesto

playamajorroleintheglobalenergysystemforthenext15-20years.Thewarhaslong-lastingeffectsontheglobalenergysystem.Theheightenedfocusonenergysecurityincreasesdemandfordomesticallyproducedrenewablesandothernon-fossilfuels,helpingto

acceleratetheenergytransition.Governmentsupportfortheenergytransitionhasincreasedinanumberofcountries,includingthepassingoftheInflationReductionActintheUS.ButthescaleofTheprospectsfornaturalgasdependonthespeedoftheenergytransition,withincreasingdemandinemergingeconomiesastheygrowandindustrializeoffsetbythetransitionto

lowercarbonenergysources,ledbythedevelopedworld.Theglobalpowersystemhydrogenisdominatedbygreenandbluehydrogen,withgreenhydrogengrowinginimportanceovertime.Hydrogentradeisamixofregionalpipelinestransportingpurehydrogenandglobalseabornetradeinhydrogenderivatives.decarbonizes,ledbytheincreasingdominanceofwindandsolarpower.

Windandsolaraccountforallormostofthegrowthinpowergeneration,aidedbycontinuingcostcompetitivenessandanincreasingabilityto

integratehighproportions

ofthese

variable

powersourcesintopowersystems.Thegrowthinwindandsolarrequiresasignificantaccelerationinthefinancingandbuildingofnewcapacity.Carboncapture,useandstorageplaysacentralroleinenablingrapiddecarbonizationtrajectories:capturingindustrialprocessemissions,actingasasourceofcarbondioxideremoval,andabatingemissionsfromtheuseoffossilfuels.Therecentenergyshortagesandpricespikeshighlighttheimportanceofthetransitionawayfromhydrocarbonsbeingorderly,suchthatthedemandforhydrocarbonsfallsinlinewithavailablesupplies.Naturaldeclinesinexistingproductionsourcesmeanthereneedsto

becontinuingupstreaminvestmentinoilandnaturalgasoverthenext30

years.Theuseofmodernbioenergy–modernsolidbiomass,biofuelsandbiomethane–growsrapidly,helpingto

decarbonizehard-to-abatesectorsandprocesses.Arangeofmethodsforcarbondioxideremoval–includingbioenergycombinedwithcarboncaptureandstorage,naturalLow-carbon

hydrogenplaysaclimatesolutions,anddirectaircarboncapturewithstorage–willbeneededfortheworldto

achieveadeepandrapiddecarbonization.criticalroleindecarbonizingtheenergysystem,especiallyinhard-to-abate

processesandactivitiesinindustryandtransport.Low-carbon7|bp

Energy

Outlook:

2023

edition8|Contents38Overview10OilThree

scenarios:Net

Zero,

Acceleratedand

New

MomentumOil

demandOil

intransportOil

supply40424412141618Comparison

with

IPCC

pathwaysFinal

energy

demandTrends

inenergy

demandNatural

gas46Natural

gas

demandLNG

trade485052Changes

since

Energy

Outlook

202220Impacts

ofthe

Russia-Ukraine

warThe

effects

ofthe

war

on

economic

growthA

shifting

energy

mix2224262830323436LNG

exportsRenewable

energy54Oil

and

natural

gas

tradeWind

and

solarBioenergy5658Change

incarbon

emissionsRussian

productionofoil

and

gasEUnatural

gas

demand

and

sources

ofsupplyInflation

Reduction

ActElectricity60Investment

and

critical

minerals80Electricity

demand626466Levels

ofimplied

investment82Electricity

generation

byfuelElectricity

generation

byregionDemand

forcritical

minerals84Annex86Low-carbon

hydrogen68Data

tables88Low-carbon

hydrogen

demandLow-carbon

hydrogen

supply7072Modelling

the

impact

ofthe

Russia-Ukraine

warEconomic

impact

ofclimate

changeInvestmentmethodology9092949698Carbon

mitigation

and

removals74Carbon

emissions

definitions

and

sourcesOther

data

definitions

and

sourcesCarbon

capture

use

and

storageCarbon

dioxide

removals76789|bp

Energy

Outlook:

2023

edition10|Over

viewThree

scenarios

to

explore

the

uncertainties

surroundingthe

speedand

shapeof

the

energy

transition

to

2050Accelerated

and

Net

Zero

are

broadlyin

linewith

‘Paris

consistent’

IPCCscenariosFinal

energy

demand

peaks

in

all

three

scenariosas

gains

in

energy

efficiencyaccelerateThefuture

of

globalenergy

is

dominated

by

four

trends:

decliningrole

for

hydrocarbons,

rapidexpansion

in

renewables,

increasingelectrification,and

growing

use

of

low-carbonhydrogen11

|

bp

Energy

Outlook:

2023

edition12|OverviewThree

scenarios

to

explore

the

uncertainties

surroundingthe

speed

and

shape

of

the

energy

transition

to

2050Carbon

emissionsGt

of

CO

e24540353025201510Accelerated5Net

ZeroNew

Momentum0200020102020203020402050Carbon

emissionsincludeCO

emissionsfromenergyuse,industrialprocesses,2naturalgas

flaring,

andmethaneemissionsfromenergyproduction.Key

pointsbp’s

Energy

Outlook

2023

uses

threescenarios

(Accelerated,

Net

Zero

and

NewMomentum)

to

consider

a

range

of

possiblepathways

forthe

global

energy

system

to2050

and

to

help

shape

a

resilient

strategyforbp.The

scenarios

consider

carbon

emissionsfrom

energy

production

and

use,most

non-energy

related

industrialprocesses,

and

natural

gas

flaring

plusmethane

emissions

from

the

production,transmission,

and

distribution

of

fossilfuels

(see

pages

96-97

of

the

Annex

formore

details).The

carbon

emissions

remaining

in

NetZero

in

2050

could

be

eliminated

byeither

additional

changes

to

the

energysystem

or

bythe

deployment

of

carbondioxide

removal

(CDR)

(see

pages

78-79).This

will

depend

on

the

costs

of

CDR

andof

abating

greenhouse

gasses

emanatingfrom

outside

the

energy

system,

neitherof

which

are

explicitly

considered

in

theOutlook.The

scenarios

are

not

predictions

of

whatis

likely

to

happen

or

what

bp

would

liketohappen.

Rather,

the

scenarios

aredesigned

tospan

a

wide

range

of

theoutcomes

possible

out

to

2050.

In

doingso,

they

inform

bp’s

core

beliefs

aboutthe

energy

transition

and

help

shapea

strategy

that

is

resilient

to

the

manyuncertainties

surrounding

the

speed

andnatureof

the

energy

transition.Accelerated

and

Net

Zero

explorehow

different

elements

of

the

energysystem

might

change

in

order

toachieve

a

substantial

reduction

in

carbonemissions.

In

that

sense,

they

can

beviewed

as

‘what

if’

scenarios:

whatelements

of

the

energy

system

mightneed

tochange

if

the

world

collectivelyNew

Momentum

is

designed

to

capturethe

broad

trajectory

along

which

theglobal

energy

system

is

currentlytravelling.

It

places

weight

on

themarked

increase

in

global

ambitionfordecarbonization

in

recent

years,

aswell

as

on

the

manner

and

speed

ofdecarbonization

seen

over

the

recenttakesaction

forCO

-equivalent

emissionsThe

scenarios

in

thisyear’s

Outlook

havebeen

updated

to

take

account

of

twomajor

developments

over

the

past

year:the

Russia-Ukraine

war

and

the

passingof

the

Inflation

Reduction

Act

in

theUS.

Aside

from

updating

forthose

twodevelopments,

the

scenarios

arelargelybased

on

the

analysis

and

scenarios

inEnergy

Outlook

2022.2(CO

e)

to

fall

byaround

75%

by20502(relative

to

2019

levels)in

Acceleratedand

95%

in

Net

Zero.

Both

scenariosareconditioned

on

the

assumption

thatthere

is

a

significant

tightening

in

climatepolicies.

Net

Zero

also

embodies

a

shiftin

societal

behaviour

and

preferences,which

further

supports

gains

in

energyefficiency

and

the

adoption

of

low-carbonenergy.past.

CO

e

emissions

in

New

Momentum2peak

in

the

2020s

and

by2050

arearound

30%

below

2019

levels.13

|

bp

Energy

Outlook:

2023

edition14|OverviewAccelerated

and

Net

Zero

are

broadly

in

linewith

‘Paris

consistent’

IPCCscenariosCumulative

CO

e

emissions

from

energy

(2015-

2050)Change

infossil

fuels

inIPCC

1.5°Cscenarios2Gt

of

CO

e2019-2030

change212000%IPCC10th

-90thpercentileIPCC

1.5°Cinterquartilerange11001000900800700IPCCNet

Zero-20%25th

-75thpercentileNet

ZeroAccelerated-40%-60%-80%-100%6001.5°C2°COilNaturalgasCoalCumulativeCO

eemissionsin2015-2050

aretheaddition

ofCO

emissions1.5°Cscenarios

with

no

or

limitedovershootand

2°C

scenarioswith

immediateaction.

See

Annex

forselection

ofIPCC

scenarios22fromenergy

and

industrial

processes,

flaring,

and

methaneemissionsKey

pointsThe

pace

and

extent

of

decarbonizationin

Accelerated

and

Net

Zero

arebroadlyaligned

with

a

range

of

IPCC

scenarioswhich

areconsistent

with

maintainingglobal

average

temperature

rises

wellbelow

2ºC

and

1.5ºC

above

pre-industriallevelsin2100

respectively

(see

annexpages

96-97

formore

details

of

IPCCscenarios

used).Report

–

Climate

Change

2022:

Impacts,Adaptation

and

Vulnerability.The

fall

in

fossil

fuels

and

industrialemissions

in

the

median

IPCC

scenariois

driven

largely

bya

75%

fall

in

globalcoal

consumption

by2030,

with

moremodest

fallsof

around

10%

in

oil

andnatural

gas

consumption.

The

falls

inoil

and

natural

gas

by2030

in

Net

Zeroareconsistent

with

the

range

of

IPCC1.5ºC

scenarios,

but

the

fall

in

coalCumulative

CO

e

emissions

in2Accelerated

arebroadly

in

the

middle

ofthe

interquartile

range

of

well

below

2ºCIPCC

scenarios.

The

trajectory

forcarbonemissions

in

Accelerated

lies

within

theIPCC

range

over

the

entireoutlook.consumption

is

significantly

smaller.

Thatreflects

the

continuing

importance

of

coalas

an

affordable

and

relatively

abundantfuel

in

many

emerging

economies

whereenergy

demand

is

expanding

rapidly.For

Net

Zero,

cumulative

CO

e

emissionsThe

Energy

Outlook

scenarios

extendonly

to

2050

and

do

not

model

all

formsofgreenhouse

gasses

or

all

sectors

oftheeconomy.

As

such,

it

is

not

possible

tomap

directly

between

the

scenarios

andtheir

implications

forthe

carbon

budgetand

the

implied

increase

in

average

globaltemperatures

by2100.2arewithin

the

10th

to

90th

percentiles

ofIPCC

scenarios

consistent

with

1.5ºC(with

no

or

limited

overshoot),

but

area

little

above

the

interquartile

range.Carbon

emissions

in

Net

Zero

declinemore

slowly

than

the

range

of

IPCC

1.5ºCscenarios

out

to

2030,

before

falling

morequickly

than

the

median

scenario

furtherout.The

time

it

takesforparts

of

the

energysector

to

transition

awayfrom

fossilfuels

highlights

the

likely

importance

ofcarbon

dioxide

removal

(CDR)

in

helpingto

reduce

netcarbon

emissions

duringthe

transition

period

while

these

reformsareundertaken,

as

well

as

offsetting

anyremaining

gross

emissions

in

a

netzeroenergy

system

(see

pages

78-79).However,

it

is

possible

to

providean

indirect

inferencebycomparingthe

cumulative

carbon

emissions

inAccelerated

and

Net

Zero

forthe

energysector

over

the

period2015

to

2050with

the

ranges

of

corresponding

carbontrajectories

takenfrom

the

scenariosincluded

in

the

IPCC

Sixth

AssessmentIn

the

median

IPCC

scenario

consistentwith

1.5ºC

(with

no

or

limited

overshoot),netCO

emissions

decline

by48%

by22030

(relative

to

2019

levels).

Within

this,CO

emissions

from

‘fossil

fuels

and2industrial

processes’

fall

by40%.

Thiscompares

with

a

fall

of

30%

in

Net

Zero.15

|

bp

Energy

Outlook:

2023

edition16|OverviewFinal

energy

demand

peaks

in

all

three

scenariosas

gains

in

energy

efficiency

accelerateTotalfinal

consumptionTotalfinal

consumption

by

fuelEJEJ550500450400350300250200600OtherNewMomentumHydrogenElectricityCoal5004003002001000AcceleratedNaturalgasOilNet

ZeroAcceleratedNet

ZeroNew

Momentum20002010202020302040205020192050Key

pointsGlobal

energy

demand

measured

at

thefinal

point

ofuse

(total

final

consumption)peaks

in

all

three

scenarios

as

gains

inenergy

efficiency

accelerate,

more

thanoffsetting

the

upwards

impact

of

increasingliving

standards

across

much

of

theemerging

world.of

factors

including:

the

increasing

useof

electricity

at

the

final

point

of

use,more

efficient

useof

materials

throughincreased

recycling

and

reuse,and

agreater

focus

on

energy

conservation,given

greater

impetus

by

the

heightenedfocus

on

energy

security

(see

pages

22-23).Total

final

consumption

decarbonizes

asthe

direct

useof

fossil

fuels

declines,

theworld

electrifies

and

the

power

sector

isincreasingly

decarbonized.Within

TFC,

fossil

fuels

used

at

thefinal

point

of

energy

use

decline

from

ashareof

around

65%

in

2019

to

20-50%by2050

across

the

three

scenarios.Within

hydrocarbons,

the

shareof

coalfalls

particularly

sharply

as

the

worldincreasingly

shifts

to

the

useof

electricityand

low-carbon

hydrogen

in

industry,

asdoes

the

shareof

oil,

driven

primarily

bythe

falling

useof

oil

in

road

transport

(seepages

42-43).Total

final

consumption

(TFC)

peaks

inthe

mid-to-late

2020s

in

Accelerated

andNet

Zero,

with

final

energy

consumption15-30%

below

2019

levelsby2050.

Incontrast,

TFC

increases

until

around

2040in

New

Momentum,

after

which

it

broadlyplateaus

with

energy

consumption

in2050

around

10%

above

2019

levels.The

assumed

increase

in

the

pace

ofenergy

efficiency

improvements

inAccelerated

and

Net

Zero

is

a

centralelement

in

facilitating

a

rapid

reduction

incarbon

emissions,

without

which

therewould

need

to

be

even

faster

growth

inlow-carbon

energy

to

achieve

the

sameoutcome.The

main

factor

driving

these

differencesin

final

energy

consumption

is

the

paceof

improvement

in

energy

efficiency.

Thegains

in

global

energy

efficiency

overthe

outlook

–

measured

bycomparinggrowth

in

final

energy

demand

witheconomic

activity

–

aremuch

quickerthan

over

the

past

20

years

in

all

threescenarios,

particularly

in

Acceleratedand

Net

Zero.

That

reflects

a

numberThe

role

of

electricity

increasessubstantially

and

broadly

uniformlyacross

all

three

scenarios,

with

electricityconsumption

increasing

byaround

75%by2050.Final

energy

demand

in

emergingmarkets

continues

to

growover

thecoming

decade

and

beyond

in

NewMomentum

and

Accelerated,

drivenby

increasing

prosperity

and

improvingliving

standards.

In

contrast,

demand

indeveloped

economies

peaks

in

the

nextfew

years

in

all

three

scenarios.17

|

bp

Energy

Outlook:

2023

edition18|OverviewThefuture

of

global

energy

is

dominated

by

four

trends:

decliningrole

for

hydrocarbons,

rapid

expansion

in

renewables,

increasingelectrification,

and

growing

use

of

low-carbonhydrogenFossil

fuelsShare

of

primary

energy80%RenewablesShare

of

primary

energy80%60%40%20%0%60%40%20%0%20192025203020352040204520502019202520302035204020452050ElectricityLow-carbon

hydrogenShare

of

total

final

consumptionShare

of

primary

energy

used

in

production

of

hydrogen60%25%Accelerated20%Net

ZeroNew

Momentum40%20%0%15%10%5%0%20192019202520302035204020452050202520302035204020452050Key

pointsThe

changing

composition

of

energydemand

over

the

outlook

is

characterizedbyfourtrends:

a

gradual

decline

in

the

roleof

hydrocarbons,

rapid

growth

in

renewableenergy,

and

an

increasing

electrificationof

the

world,

supported

bylow-carbonhydrogen

in

processes

and

activities

whicharehard

to

electrify.Renewable

energy

is

largely

made

upThe

decarbonization

of

the

energyof

wind

and

solar

power

and

bioenergy,and

also

includes

geothermal

power.Renewables

expand

rapidly

over

theoutlook,

offsetting

the

declining

role

offossil

fuels.

The

shareof

renewables

inglobal

primary

energy

increases

fromaround

10%

in

2019

to

between

35-65%by2050,

driven

bythe

improved

costcompetitiveness

of

renewables,

togetherwith

the

increasing

prevalence

of

policiesencouraging

a

shift

to

low-carbon

energy.system,

especially

in

Accelerated

and

NetZero,

is

supported

bythe

growing

useof

low-carbon

hydrogen

in

hard-to-abateprocesses

which

aredifficult

or

costlyto

electrify.

The

shareof

primary

energyused

in

the

production

of

low-carbonhydrogen

increases

to

between

13-21%by2050

inAccelerated

and

Net

Zero.The

role

of

hydrocarbons

diminishes

asthe

world

transitions

to

lower

carbonenergy

sources.

The

shareof

fossil

fuelsin

primary

energy

declines

from

around80%

in

2019

to

between

55-20%

by2050.In

all

three

scenarios,

the

pace

at

whichrenewable

energy

penetrates

the

globalenergy

system

is

quicker

than

anyprevious

fuel

in

history.The

total

consumption

of

fossil

fuelsdeclines

in

all

three

scenarios

over

theoutlook.

This

would

be

the

first

time

inmodern

history

that

there

has

been

asustained

fall

in

the

demand

forany

fossilfuel.The