J.正式版. 摩根-全球宏观策略之全球宏观数据观察-2021.5.28-83正式版

EconomicResearchMay28,2021GlobalDataWatch

DespiteAprildip,aDMconsumerspendingbounceisunderway

Growthsurgeavoidsinterestrate,energypricepitfalls,sofar

EM-DMgrowthconvergencehingesonvaccinationprogress

Nextweek:MayshowsUSjobsandglobalservicesPMIpickupContentsGlobalmobility:GoyourownwayJapan:NextprimeministerrestsonOlympicsandvaccinationIndia'ssecondwave:Arecoveryinterrupted10121519Straight,nochaserKorea:FiscalpolicyupdateRussia'sCBR:PredictablyunpredictableThereislittledoubtthatglobalgrowthissurgingthisquarterledbyaprojected10%arGDPgaininboththeUSandWesternEurope.Despitethisweek’sreportofastallinAprilUSrealconsumption,DMhouseholdsareleadingthissurge,reflect-inglargeUSfiscalsupportsandtheactivationofpent-updemandasEurope’sCOVID-19second-wavedragfades(Figure1).Currentperformancecanbeamis-leadingguidetowhatliesaheadandstronggrowthoftenmasksunderlyingvulnera-bilities.TwoimportantimbalancesemergingaswemovetowardmidyearposeriskstoourforecastforglobalGDPtoboomnearly7%annualizedin2H21:2123Mexico:Pricesandthereopening,andtheotherwayaroundGlobalEconomicOutlookSummaryGlobalCentralBankWatchNowcastofglobalgrowth467SelectedrecentresearchfromJ.P.MorganEconomics9DataWatchesUnitedStatesEuroareaJapanCanadaMexico

Asdemandsoars,supplystrugglestokeepup.Thepandemichascon-strainedthenormalelasticityofglobalsupplyinmeetingdemand.Throughthesecondhalfoflastyear,supplyshortagesinindustryextendeddeliverytimes,slowedthereboundinstock-building,andpushedcoregoodspricesabovetheirpre-pandemicpace.Therecentaccelerationingrowthisintensi-fyingthesepressures,withbottlenecksnowextendingtoUSlabormarkets.Inadditiontotheriskthatthesebottlenecksconstrainactivity,thereisalsoconcernthatrapidpriceincreasescouldweakendemand.25333841434547495153565860646670BrazilArgentinaPeruUnitedKingdomEmergingEuropeSouthAfrica&SSAAustraliaandNewZealandChina,HongKong,andTaiwanKorea

It’snotover’tilthevaccineladysings.DespiteboomyDMgrowth,wehavebeenlowering2QgrowthprojectionsforEM.ThisowesinparttoChina’spolicynormalization,butalsoCOVIDdragshaverearedupinEMAsia,Turkey,andLATAM.Inadditiontobeingareminderthatthepan-demicisnotyetover,EMunderperformanceisconcentratedincountriesal-readysignificantlylaggingtheglobalrecovery.ASEANIndiaRegionalDataCalendars72Theseheadwindsdonotdiminishouroptimismaboutgrowthfortheremain-derofthisyear.BolsteringourconfidenceisthatDMhouseholdshaveenor-mousfuelintheirtanks.Euroareaspendingstood10%belowitspre-pandemiclevellastquarterwhileitsconsumerconfidencehasreturnedtoitslong-termnorm.IntheUS,onlyalimitedamountofstimulussupporthasbeenspenttodate,evenasconsumptionhasgrownatan18.5%arthusfarFigure1:DMhouseholdactivityFigure2:USlaborcompandPCEpricesBruceKasmanIndex,4Q19=100%,saPercentchange,annualizedrate(1-212)834-5515bruce.c.kasman@JPMorganChaseBankNA1052415105LaborcompensationPCEpricesConsumption100952016128JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@JPMorganChaseBankNA90Savingrate2021MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@JPMorganChaseBankNA850201920204Q20YTDSource:J.P.MorganSource:BEA,J.P.MorganJPMorganChaseBankNAEconomicResearchBruceKasman(1-212)834-5515bruce.c.kasman@MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603GlobalDataWatchmichael.s.hanson@May28,2021JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@thisyear.Indeed,thehouseholdsavingratestoodat14.9%inAprilandUSlaborcompensationgainshavefaroutpacedinflationthroughthefirstfourmonthsoftheyear(Figure2).Nextweek’sMayemploymentreportislikelytomarkstrongmonthlygainsinjobsandlaborincome.donotfacethesupplyconstraintsevidentelsewhere.Asaresult,amoderationinenergypriceinflationshouldtemperadragonhouseholdpurchasingpowerfromcorepricepres-suresduring2H21(Figure4).Figure4:GlobalCPIWearealsoconfidentthatthelinkbetweenthevirusandmo-bilityisbeingpermanentlysevered.Tothisend,EMecono-mieslooklikelytofollowEurope’spathofcombiningtarget-edrestrictionswithacatch-upinvaccinationratesthatlaythegroundforreleasingpent-updemandlaterthisyear.Progressonthisfrontremainsmixedbuttherecentpickupinvaccina-tionratesinkeyEMcountriessendsanencouragingmessageforthepathahead.Followingananticipatedcontractionthisquarter,welookforEMex.ChinaGDPtogrowata6.5%arduring2H21.%oya,bothscales.Forecastthrough1Q225432103.0Core2.52.01.51.0Headline1500051020Source:J.P.MorganWithgrowthinfinaldemandstrong,itisunlikelythatsupplyconstraintswillbealleviatedquickly.However,thereisavail-ablecapacityandwelookforpressurestomoderategraduallyasthedisruptiveinfluenceofCOVID-19fades.Weexpectasignofthismoderationtocomefrommovestowardnormali-zationintheglobalPMIdeliverytimeandUSlaborforceparticipationnextquarter.Ascapacitycomesbackonline,therewillbeasignificantgrowthdividendasfirmswillneedtoaligninventoriesmorecloselywithdemand(Figure3).TheFedandothercentralbanksdeservecreditforthisfavor-ablebackdrop,havingmanagedthecrisiseffectivelyandcommittedtosustaininghighlyaccommodativepolicyratestancesuntiltheyareconvincedtheirobjectivesareachieved.However,acalibrationwillberequiredinthefaceofrapidlychangingdevelopments.TheRBNZsurprisedatthisweek’sdecisionbyflippingfromaneasingbiastoforecastinghikesin2022.Thisisaparticularlyabruptturn,andwiththenota-bleexceptionoftheBoE,otherDMcentralbanksarelikelytoremaincommittedtomaintainingratesonholdnextyear,in-terpretingthecurrentgrowthandinflationsurgeastransitory.However,theirlow-for-longguidancewillneedtobebal-ancedbycommitmentstomedium-terminflationcontrolthroughanacknowledgementthattheratenormalizationpathwillsteepenbeyond2022.Theywillalsobechallengedtode-linktheirrateguidancefrombalancesheetpoliciesthatwillneedtotapertooffsetfinancialstabilityrisksfromcontinuedpolicyaccommodation.Figure3:US:Inventories/finalsalesofgoodsandstructuresratio4.904.644.384.123.863.60Euroareareadiesforliftoff9702071217Source:J.P.MorganFallingCOVID-19infectionsandrisingvaccinationratessuggesttheEuroareaispoisedtobounce.However,thewide-spreadimpositionofstringentrestrictionsinAprildepressedactivityatthestartofthisquarter.Theclosureofnon-essentialshopsledtoan8.3%m/mAprilcollapseingoodsconsumptioninFrance,andweexpectnextweektoshowEuroarearetailsalesfell3.5%m/minApril.Butthereopen-ingofstoresthismonthshouldsetupasignificantrebound.OurGAI-modelforretailsalessuggestsa5.2%m/mjumpthismonth.Giventhis,togetherwithalargejumpinMaysurveys,webelievethatmomentumisbuildingquicklyandraisedour2Qgrowthforecastto7.5%q/q,saarthisweek.Apatontheback,aneedtocalibrateAnothervulnerabilityoftenassociatedwithboomygrowthistighteningfinancialmarketconditions.Theabsenceofafi-nancialmarketflashpointinthefaceoftherecentvolatilityingrowthandinflationisencouraging.Whilethereisbuildingevidenceofelevatedassetprices(includinghousing),absentistheexcessleverageofhouseholdbalancesheetscoupledwithcomplexandopaquematuritytransformationsacrossfundingmarketsthatunderpinnedtheGFC.Equallyimportantishowratesmarketssofarhavelookedthroughmuchofthenear-termspikeincoreinflation.Inaddition,energymarkets2JPMorganChaseBankNAEconomicResearchBruceKasman(1-212)834-5515bruce.c.kasman@MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603GlobalDataWatchmichael.s.hanson@May28,2021JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@Whileareboundinservice-sectoractivityshouldleadtheexpectedgrowthbounce,industrialoutputshouldgeneratestronggainsevenasitwaslargelysparedfromrestrictions.Anumberofcompanieshavefacedregionalorglobalsupplychainconstraints,whichisreflectedinthelengtheninginPMIdeliverytimes.Autoproductionhasbeenparticularlyhardhitbutcompaniessuggestthatpartshortagesshouldsoonease.UpcomingreportsonMayGermancarproduction(nextweek)andAprilEuroareaIP(intwoweeks)shouldprovidesomeinsight.RecentstrengthinthenewordersPMIandna-tionalsurveyspointtoapotentialsurgeinoutputoncetheseconstraintsease.therregulatoryforbearanceandliquiditymeasures,althoughtheefficacyoffurthermonetaryeasingfacessomedoubts.Elsewhere,risingcasesandtougherrestrictionsledustore-visedown2QgrowthinSingaporeto-5%arthisweek.Withcoreinflationforecastedtoremainbelow1%oyadespitearisingheadline,welookfortheMAStonormalizeitscrawl-ingNEERbasketpolicyinApril2022,ratherthanthisOcto-ber.Terms-of-tradeboostforSouthAfricaAsubstantialterms-of-tradelifthasbrightenedtheSouthAf-ricanoutlook,andwenowprojectGDPtorise5%thisyear,considerablyabovepolicymakers’currentprojectionsof4.3%.Theincomewindfallfromasharpriseincommodityexportpriceswillreverberate,narrowingthefiscalgap—to7.4%ofGDPfrom12.7%lastyear—asminingtaxreceiptsandroyaltiesareboosted.Weexpecttheauthoritiestoavoidastructuralincreaseinspendingbuttoutilizeadditionalpolicyspacetosupportasocialprotectionprogram.Moreover,theimprovementinexternalbalancesrelatedtothetermsoftradehasboostedtherandandiscurbinginflationrisk.WebelievetheSARBwillrespondtostrongergrowthbytighteninglatethisyear;welookforacontainedhikingcycleof75bpbyend-2022.JapangivesdelayedserviceJapan’sdecisiontoextendthestateofemergencythisweekdampensitsimmediateprospects,anditwilltaketimebeforethecountryjoinstheglobaleconomicreopeningbounce.Weloweredourcurrent-quarterGDPgrowthforecasttoa1.0%arthisweekandexpectanunusuallywidegapbetweengoods-andservice-sectoractivity.Indeed,exportscontinuetogrowatasolidpaceandweexpectnextweek’sAprilIPtoposta3.5%m/mgain.Embeddedinthisforecastisalargecontrac-tioninservicesconsumptionthisquarter.However,evenafterthestateofemergencyislifted,vaccinationratesthatremainwellbelow10%willweighdowntherecoveryinservicesspending.Conditionsforafull-fledgedrecoverywilllikelyonlybeinplaceaftertheOlympics,whenvaccinationoftheelderlyshouldbecompleteandthetravelsubsidyprogramlikelywillresumeaheadofthegeneralelection.Wethusex-pectJapan’s2H21reboundtobebackloaded,witha6%arGDPgainnextquarterfollowedbya12%arjumpin4Q21.Mexico:Bettergrowth,worseinflationInMarch,Mexico’sGDPproxyposteditsstrongestmonthlygainsincelastJuly,whenlockdownswerefirsteased.Broad-basedincreasesinagriculture,IP,andservicesledustoreviseup1QGDPgrowthto3.1%q/qsaarthisweek(from1.8%).Thesedataalsosetthestageforastrongaccelerationthisquarter;weforecast6.6%q/q,saargrowthin2Qandrevisedupfull-yeargrowthbytwo-tenthsto6.7%.Theexpectedre-boundinservicesfromthismonthshouldvalidateourabove-consensuscall—providedthereisnotanotherspikeinCOVID-19casesthatforcesanewlockdownthissummer.Inflationarypressureshaveaccompaniedthisgrowthpickup,andweraisedour2021forecastto5.2%.WelookforBanxicotofollowsuitinnextweek’sQuarterlyInflationReport.TheminutesreleasedthisweeksuggesttheBoardstillfavorsalow-for-longpolicystanceunderacentralscenarioof4.5%inflationthisyear,convergingbackto3%in2Q22.EMAsiacentralbanksstarttodivergeAcrossEMAsiathereisasplitbetweenthosecentralbanksthathavebegundownanormalizationpathastherecoverygainsstrengthandfinancialstabilityconcernsmovetothefore,andthosestillgrapplingwithvirus-relateddownsiderisks.Tighteningofcreditandhousingpoliciesalreadyisun-derwayinChina.ThelackofinterventionastheCNYhasmovedhigherinrecentweekshasraisedconcernthatthePBOCwasalsoemployingyuanstrengthasatool.Weareskepticalofthatview,andPBOCcommunicationsthisweekpushedbackagainstappreciatingthecurrencytocombatin-flation.TheBankofKoreatookitsfirststepstowardnormali-zationatitsmeetingthisweek,withamorehawkishtoneinitsstatementandpressconference.Wethuspulledforwardourcallforthefirstratehiketo4Q21.Bycontrast,inthewakeofalargesecondwaveinIndia,weexpecttheRBItoaddaccommodationatitsmeetingnextweek.Welookforadditionalbondpurchasesalongwithfur-Editor:GabrieldeKock(1-212)622-6718gabriel.s.dekock@3JPMorganChaseBankNAEconomicResearchCarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@Globaleconomicoutlooksum-maryJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@May28,2021GlobaleconomicoutlooksummaryRealGDPRealGDPConsumerprices%overayearago%overpreviousperiod,saar%overayearago2020202120224Q204.39.616.819.41Q212Q213Q214Q213.01Q223.54Q201.20.83.636.24.32.91.6-1.13.52Q214Q212Q22UnitedStatesCanadaLatinAmericaArgentinaBrazil-3.5

6.7

4.16.4

10.0

8.34.32.96.048.67.54.02.8-1.65.72.03.72.35.250.46.23.83.50.45.01.97.12.31.93.946.14.63.33.00.53.42.36.7↑↑↑-5.4-6.6

5.7-9.95.8-4.1

4.1

1.7

13.3-5.87.52.828.0-6.8

7.5

3.6

26.7

11.9-7.8-8.3-11.16.74.12.71.96.74.49.74.0-1.4-13.07.53.25.02.55.84.44.03.85.53.44.03.53.32.5↑↑↑↑↓↓↓↓↑2.3

-4.013.42.55.05.04.02.52.02.53.0Chile-3.02.6

2.56.6

-7.0ColombiaEcuadorMexico↑↓2.03.02.33.03.1-1.06.5

3.7

13.511.53.53.8↓↓↑↑↑PeruUruguay4.938.8-3.51.55.510.51.9↓9.6↑↓↓↓↓↑-5.9

2.8

3.06.80.0

0.52.74.06.9Asia/PacificJapanAustraliaNewZealandEMAsiaChina-1.1-4.7-2.47.02.84.25.23.82.813.411.613.14.8-5.12.30.91.04.23.30.75.6

-25.52.27.36.03.73.37.85.721.55.95.05.07.05.76.56.05.26.912.02.44.66.05.311.05.33.55.05.05.39.05.0

10.05.83.85.0

16.05.12.02.33.96.05.58.06.12.35.54.06.16.60.7-0.80.91.41.00.16.40.5-0.31.60.4-1.53.1-0.10.01.80.13.52.12.11.44.92.41.11.72.34.34.52.02.13.02.30.32.11.92.82.64.52.5↑2.62.42.33.4↑3.62.22.22.32.30.51.81.92.72.45.32.02.12.41.61.82.31.41.92.5↓↓↑↑↓↓↓↓↓↓↑↑↑↓-3.0

3.5

3.8

-3.8

-2.2

-0.28.15.614.07.32.3

9.0

5.6

14.1-7.3-2.8

5.4↓↑↓4.320.08.223.46.2India9.06.84.92.827.46.42.08.95.0-5.9

11.3

-1.5ExChina/IndiaHongKongIndonesiaKoreaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeTaiwan↓↑↓↑↑↑-6.18.01.06.0

3.0-2.1

5.0

4.8-1.0-5.6

6.3-9.5-5.4

7.03.17.0-6.1

3.9

8.24.64.15.46.56.6↓↓↑↓↓↑↑↑↑↑5.316.01.13.6-5.0-0.55.9

15.9

13.14.0↑5.84.312.90.7Thailand2.0

5.0-0.4WesternEuropeEuroareaGermanyFranceItalySpain-7.0-6.7

5.0-5.1-8.0-8.95.55.15.05.14.65.7-1.1-2.910.17.58.04.010.013.55.65.54.05.0↑6.03.84.04.04.04.56.53.03.02.83.7↓4.55.34.55.04.9-0.1-0.3-0.60.1-0.4-0.81.30.60.64.92.62.8-0.72.82.11.81.82.11.81.32.22.81.71.76.72.95.01.34.43.42.52.53.62.12.23.02.61.32.76.23.14.71.34.64.11.61.41.81.51.52.31.31.22.54.62.53.41.22.93.54.14.8↑↑↑↓↓↓↑↑↓↓-2.7

-2.513.516.011.514.0↓↓3.86.15.92.2-5.9-7.2-7.0-0.4-1.6↓↓↑↓↑↓-10.8

6.6

7.40.1

-2.0

10.0

15.0

11.0NorwaySweden-3.1-2.9-9.8-2.7

4.8↑-5.64.0-5.0

6.9

5.5

11.7-2.54.85.46.3-2.7

4.6

5.9

-2.0-3.98.06.519.7-3.0

4.2

2.7

9.3-7.15.02.56.31.8

4.8

4.1

6.9

-0.8

-2.03.54.78.13.93.45.94.05.58.30.05.27.22.5-4.13.4-5.92.8↑-1.27.8-6.53.611.75.02.84.010.05.015.65.1↑11.09.010.05.2

10.04.03.56.53.77.05.54.97.56.12.82.10.88.0

↑↑↑↓UnitedKingdomEMEAEMCzechRepublicHungaryIsraelPolandRomaniaRussia23.43.3↑5.0↓2.8

10.42.83.0

4.98.73.02.80.42.82.1↓4.54.53.213.5

17.15.84.85.35.014.7

10.4↓SouthAfricaTurkey↑↑↑↑↑↓↑Global-3.6-5.0

5.7-1.5-4.5

5.9

4.4

12.9-3.3

6.6↓

4.8

9.36.44.6↑7.53.613.43.5↓1.66.3↑7.8↑5.0

5.5↑8.60.8↓-3.1↓3.68.5↓5.1↑5.0↑5.3↓5.45.3↑4.11.10.51.93.41.63.02.83.33.12.83.64.5↑3.42.31.83.13.72.7DevelopedmarketsEmergingmarketsEmergingexChinaGlobal—PPPweighted4.49.73.45.3↑5.1↑4.5↓↑↓↑↓7.35.06.7↓7.68.7↓↑4.83.3↑Note:ForsomeemergingeconomiesseasonallyadjustedGDPdataareestimatedbyJ.P.Morgan.BolddenoteschangesfromlasteditionofGlobalDataWatch,witharrowsshow-ingthedirectionofchanges.UnderlineindicatesbeginningofJ.P.Morganforecasts.Unlessnoted,concurrentnominalGDPweightscalculatedwithcurrentFXratesareusedincomputingourglobalandregionalaggregates.RegionalCPIaggregatesexcludeArgentinaandEcuador.Source:J.P.Morgan.Anylong-formnomenclatureforreferencestoChina;HongKong;andTaiwanwithinthisresearchmaterialisMainlandChina;HongKongSAR(China)andTaiwan(China).4JPMorganChaseBankNAEconomicResearchGlobalDataWatchMay28,2021CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@G-3economicoutlookdetail202020212Q20221Q2020202120223Q4Q1Q3Q4QUnitedStatesRealGDPPrivateconsumptionEquipmentinvestment-3.5-3.9-5.0-11.01.76.1-77.41.1-12.9-9.3-2.6-0.7-0.21.26.78.417.4-6.08.914.6-2.41.74.414.97.60.5-1.43.44.14.06.66.67.84.934.54.95.28.94.60.2-0.72.42.42.0-7.86.24.03.533.441.068.2-17.48.463.0-3.7-4.859.693.130.16.64.32.36.411.313.4-5.816.912.7-92.95.8-2.96.710.4-2.8-1.21.910.010.919.03.35.02.0-64.53.78.89.210.00.68.38.012.06.09.07.0106.90.43.018.07.43.63.05.57.06.08.57.041.03.45.011.05.7-1.3-1.43.72.82.73.52.56.08.08.55.053.16.95.58.54.20.2-0.93.33.12.625.4-6.210.536.662.1-0.822.329.84.51.4-1.51.21.61.4Non-residentialconstructionIntellectualpropertyproductsResidentialconstructionInventorychange($bnsaar)GovernmentspendingExportsofgoodsandservicesImportsofgoodsandservicesDomesticfinalsalescontributionInventoriescontributionNettradecontributionConsumerprices(%oya)Excludingfoodandenergy(%oya)CorePCEdeflator(%oya)Federalbudgetbalance(%ofGDP,FY)Personalsavingrate(%)Unemploymentrate(%)Industrialproduction,manufacturingEuroarea-3.21.31.7-0.64.33.2-2.73.82.81.71.4-15.016.28.12.62.5-14.812.75.41.41.61.43.02.715.78.855.813.66.811.221.46.21.812.45.76.99.95.09.06.94.74.06.14.32.5-6.66.9RealGDPPrivateconsumptionCapitalinvestment-6.7-8.0-8.41.2-9.6-9.2-5.9-0.3-0.60.35.03.65.82.88.86.43.8-0.21.41.81.0-6.98.49.05.06.15.50.14.95.14.40.50.11.41.3-2.78.34.060.370.367.719.985.556.355.6-5.710.40.0-2.7-12.57.9-2.5-3.01.0-1.03.07.58.04.05.07.06.06.20.60.71.80.713.515.08.01.58.07.510.02.90.62.05.57.06.50.05.05.05.00.20.22.51.54.05.05.00.04.04.53.70.30.01.40.7GovernmentconsumptionExportsofgoodsandservicesImportsofgoodsandservicesDomesticfinalsalescontributionInventoriescontributionNettradecontributionConsumerprices(HICP,%oya)exfood,alcoholandenergyGeneralgovt.budgetbalance(%ofGDP,FY)Unemploymentrate(%)Industrialproduction1.216.819.1-5.22.7-0.2-0.30.21.0-1.6-1.91.01.11.20.7-8.88.00.60.88.681.68.318.38.23.28.55.08.55.08.45.08.44.0-8.5JapanRealGDPPrivateconsumptionBusinessinvestmentResidentialconstructionPublicinvestmentGovernmentconsumptionExportsofgoodsandservicesImportsofgoodsandservicesDomesticfinalsalescontributionInventoriescontributionNettradecontributionConsumerprices(%oya)exfoodandenergyGeneralgovt.netlending(%ofGDP,CY)Unemploymentrate(%)Industrialproduction-4.7-6.0-6.2-7.03.72.82.91.0-1.31.41.314.17.62.0-0.31.10.03.85.75.21.00.8-1.67.89.43.60.5-0.30.5-0.3-6.42.43.522.922.0-8.1-21.02.911.932.5-29.012.6-1.511.70.211.69.018.30.34.77.355.720.79.5-2.44.6-5.1-5.4-5.54.5-4.2-6.99.716.8-5.41.3-1.1-0.40.31.01.02.01.02.06.08.09.01.02.012.021.08.01.02.02.02.55.01.01.0-8.08.010.00.51.9-0.40.32.70.01.04.0-11.8-7.3-3.8-0.1-0.90.0-0.1-11.62.810.010.01.00.00.015.015.06.0-0.10.010.015.013.2-0.3-0.90.3-0.8-0.50.1-0.40.0-0.4-0.3-11.02.7-0.1-0.5-0.43.041.13.024.82.812.62.715.02.610.02.53.02.52.0-10.611.2Memo:Globalindustrialproduction%oya-5.410.34.269.7-3.843.60.24.25.66.620.97.39.14.65.73.55.5Note:MoreforecastdetailsfortheG-3andothercountriescanbefoundonJ.P.Morgan’sMorganMarketsclientwebsite.Source:J.P.Morgan5JPMorganChaseBankNAEconomicResearchGlobalCentralBankWatchMay28,2021JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@GlobalCentralBankWatchCurrentOfficialrate4-qrtrchange(bp)ForecastForecast(%pa)LastchangeNextmtgrate(%pa)Jun21Sep21Dec21Mar22Jun22LastNextnextchangeGlobalexcludingUS1.251.63-0.023.213.115.552.750.670.250.253.504.000.501.750.250.85-0.500.100.000.000.250.600.100.101.255.003.5019.002.100.100.25-0.100.502.950.503.504.001.752.000.501.125-343-1513-38157-7691.271.66-0.023.273.465.652.750.720.250.254.254.000.501.750.250.87-0.500.100.000.000.250.750.100.101.255.253.5019.002.100.100.25-0.100.502.950.503.504.001.752.000.501.131.301.70-0.023.344.075.592.750.800.250.255.504.000.502.000.250.86-0.500.100.250.000.500.900.100.101.255.503.5018.002.100.100.25-0.100.502.950.503.504.001.752.000.501.131.321.74-0.023.404.775.292.770.910.250.256.504.501.002.500.250.80-0.500.100.250.000.751.050.100.101.255.503.7516.002.110.100.25-0.100.502.950.753.504.001.752.000.501.131.311.72-0.023.364.824.982.770.910.250.256.504.501.252.500.750.74-0.500.100.500.000.751.200.100.101.255.504.001.291.69-0.023.314.894.592.770.920.250.256.504.501.502.751.250.66-0.500.100.500.001.001.200.100.101.505.754.00DevelopedEmergingLatinAmericaEMEAEMEMAsia015171-572TheAmericasUnitedStatesCanada-5250FedfundsO/Nrate015Mar20(-100bp)16Jun2127Mar20(-50bp)9Jun21Onhold004Q22(+25bp)May21(+75bp)Nov21(+25bp)Oct21(+25bp)3Q21(+25bp)1Q22(+25bp)BrazilSELICO/NReporateDiscrate50-152030050757550-1105May21(+75bp)16Jun2111Feb21(-25bp)24Jun21MexicoChile31Mar20(-50bp)8Jun21ColombiaPeruReporateReference-150025Sep20(-25bp)28Jun219Apr20(-100bp)10Jun21Europe/AfricaEuroarea6Deporate012Sep19(-10bp)10Jun2119Mar20(-15bp)24Jun217May20(-25bp)17Jun21OnholdOnholdUnitedKingdomBankrate00NorwaySwedenDeprate05003Q21(+25bp)OnholdReporate019Dec19(+25bp)1Jul21CzechRepublic2-wkrepo0506007May20(-75bp)23Jun2121Jul20(-15bp)22Jun216Apr20(-15bp)31May2128May20(-40bp)9Jun213Q21(+25bp)2Q21(+15bp)OnholdHungaryIsraelBaserateBaserate7-dayintervBaserateKeypolrateReporate1-wkrepo-300Poland004Q22(+15bp)2Q22(+25bp)Jun21(+25bp)Nov22(+25bp)Sep21(-100bp)RomaniaRussia-75-50-251075-7015Jan21(-25bp)23Apr21(+50bp)11Jun2123Jul20(-25bp)22Jul2118Mar21(+200bp)17Jun21-5050-5002SouthAfricaTurkey14.0011.00Asia/PacificAustraliaNewZealandJapan2.110.100.25-0.100.502.950.753.504.001.752.000.501.252.120.100.25-0.100.502.950.753.504.001.752.000.501.38CashrateCashratePolrateIOER1Disc.wndw1-yrMLF-15004Nov20(-15bp)1Jun21OnholdOnholdOnhold015Mar20(-75bp)18Aug2128Jan16(-20bp)17Jun21-40HongKongChina003Mar20(-50bp)15Apr20(-20bp)--Onhold00OnholdKoreaBaserateBIRRR025028May20(-25bp)15Jul2118Feb21(-25bp)17Jun2122May20(-40bp)4Jun214Q21(+25bp)OnholdIndonesiaIndia-1000ReporateO/Nrate0OnholdMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandTaiwan-25-75007Jul20(-25bp)19Nov(-25bp)8Jul21OnholdRevrepo023Jun21Onhold1-dayrepoOfficialdisc.020May20(-25bp)23Jun2119Mar20(-25bp)17Jun21Onhold0131Q22(+13bp)Source:J.P.Morgan.1BoJsetsthepolicyrateonIOER(O/N)andtargets10-yearJGByieldsaspolicyguidance.BolddenotesmovesincelastGDWandforecastchanges.Underlinedenotespolicymeetingduringupcomingweek.AggregatesareGDP-weightedaverages.Anylong-formnomenclatureforreferencestoChina;HongKong;andTaiwanwithinthisresearchmaterialisMainlandChina;HongKongSAR(China)andTaiwan(China).6JPMorganChaseBankNAEconomicResearchGlobalDataWatchMay28,2021