建立英国零碳电网系统-Building a GB electricity netw ork ready for net zero

Buildingnetwork

Executivesummary

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

aGBelectricity

readyfornetzero

Executivesummary

Contents

Home

Returntothebeginningofthedocument.

Introductiontothechallengeahead

3

9

16

Executivesummary

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

1.Lowvoltagedistribution:

Glossary

Definitionsofenergysystemtermsandadditionalbackgroundinformation.

preparingforawaveofconsumer

electrification

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

24

2.Transmission-distributioninterface:

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Arrows

connectingonshorerenewablesand

storage

Clickforwardandbackwards

throughthedocument.

32

3.Transmission:

Sections

Clickonthetitlesinthemargintonavigatetodifferentsectionsinthereport.

connectingoffshoreandlarge-scale

generation

39

46

47

Investmenttogetthere

Glossary

Appendix

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

Executivesummary

Executivesummary

TransformingthegridiscriticaltotheUK’senergygoals

Introductiontothechallengeahead

Achievingnetzeromeansourelectricitynetworkconnectinggigawattsofnewrenewablegenerationandpoweringmillionsofelectricvehiclesandheatpumpsacrossthecountry.

InrecentmonthstheimportanceofthegridhascomeintofocusaspolicymakershaverecognisedthatourenergynetworksarecriticalinfrastructurefortheUK’senergygoals.

Thegridisnotbroken.Wehavesuccessfullyconnectedmanygigawattsofwindfarms,solarfarmsandbatteries,andthereisalargepipelineoflowcarbonprojectsindevelopmentwithgridconnectionagreements.

However,reformandinvestmentareurgentlyneeded.Leadtimesforcriticalnewlowcarbonprojectstoconnectarenowover15years.

Wehavedeliveredrapidgrowthofelectricitysysteminfrastructurebefore-between1950and1975,electricitygenerationandgridcapacityincreasedalmostfive-fold.

However,transformingthegridrequiresaclearstrategyandfocusondelivery.

Thekeyplayers–Government,Ofgem,theElectricitySystemOperatorandthenetworkoperators–haverecognisedthechallengeandsetoutactionplans.Theseinitiativesprovideaspringboardforaction.

Thekeymessageofthisreportisthatanetzeroreadygridisachievable.Theprioritynowismovingfromactionplanstodeliveringreformandinvestmentatpace.

Thisreportsetsout

•thescaleofthechallengetoupgradeournetworks

•theinitiativesunderway

•thekeyprioritiestoensurenetworkinfrastructureisnotabarriertonetzero

2.Transmission-

distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttoget

there

3

Executivesummary

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

1.1Networksmustinvestaheadofincreasingdemand

Networkoperatorshavedevelopedplansandinitiativestoensurepeoplecanconnect.However,theyneedtostepupthepaceofchangeinstrategicplanning,digitalisationanddevelopmentoftheirsupplychain.

1.3Governmentshouldcommittoelectrifyingheatandtransport

Itisincreasinglyclearfromtheevidencethathydrogenwillplayalimitedroleinhomeheating.However,untilthegovernmentmakesacleardecision,itisdifficultfornetworkstofullyplanandinvestfortheelectrificationofheatingthroughheatpumps.

Readyingthenetworksforheatandtransportelectrificationrequiresaclearplanandinvestment

4

Lowvoltagedistribution:preparingforawaveofconsumerelectrification

Thetransitiontonetzerowillcreateawaveofconsumerelectrificationaspeopleswitchtoelectricvehiclesandheatpumps,thepowerforwhichwillflowthroughthelow-voltagepartofthegrid.Upgradingthelow-voltagenetworkstoprepareforthisincreaseinelectricitydemandpresentsamajor

challenge.Withoutsufficientinvestment,theheadroomfornewconnectionsatstreetlevelwillrunout.

Networkoperatorsunderstandthescaleofthechallengeofconsumerelectrification.Theyhavenewbusinessplansfor2023-2028withstrategicplans,innovationandincreasedinvestment.However,thepaceofinvestmentandinnovationisnotyetfastenough.Asustainedcommitmentfromthegovernment,Ofgemandnetworkcompanieswillbenecessarytoensurethatconsumersupanddownthecountrycanconnecttheirelectriccarchargersandinstalltheirheatpumpsquicklyandeasily.

Recommendations

1.2Ofgemmustprovidestrategicleadershiptoenablenetzero

Theregulatorhastakenagamblewithnetzerobycuttingdistributionnetworkinvestmentplansagainstdraftbudgets.Theymustensurethattheregulatoryframeworkenablesnetworkstoinveststrategicallyfornetzero.

4

5

Executivesummary

Transmission-distributioninterface:connectingonshorerenewablesandstorageEnding15-yearconnectionleadtimesiskeytonetzero

Introductiontothechallengeahead

Connectingalargevolumeofrenewablegenerationandstorageprojectsis

criticaltodecarbonisingthepowersystemby2035.Between180and220GW

ofgrid-connectedpowergenerationcapacitywillbeneededtoachievethis.

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Developersarebringingforwardstorageandrenewableprojectsatthescalewe

need,andthereisalargepipelineofprojectswithgridconnectionagreements.

However,newprojectsarenowstuckbehindalongqueuewithtransmission

systemconnectionleadtimesofover15years.Thesedelaysareamajorbarrier

tonetzero.Thegovernment,systemoperatorandnetworkshaveplansto

speedupconnectiontimelines–deliveringontheseisnowurgent.

Recommendations

2.2Reformtheconnectionsprocess

Connectingthegigawattsofrenewablesandstorageneededfornetzerowillnotbepossiblewithoutdeliveringastreamlinedandeffectiveconnectionsprocess.TheESOandnetworkoperatorsmustmanagethequeueofprojectstoensurethoseabletoconnectarenotblockedandimplementasmarterconnectionsprocesstogetgigawattsofgenerationflowingontothegrid.

2.3Reformtheapproachforinteractionbetweentransmissionanddistributionnetworks

Theprocessforassessinghowprojectsconnectingatdistributionwillaffectthetransmissionnetworkisacriticalbarrierforconnectingnewgeneration.

TheESOandDNOsneedtoputinplaceanewprocesstoresolvetransmissionbarrierstodistributionconnectionsresultinginlongqueuestoconnect.

2.1Deliveroninvestmentaheadof

need

Movingtoagridinvestmentregimethat

deliversgriddevelopmentsincoordination

withandaheadofnewgeneration

connectionsiscritical.Thegovernmentand

Ofgemmustdeliverontheirproposalfor

“InvestandConnect”andensurethenew

FutureSystemOperatorisupandrunningto

leadaclearplanforgridinvestment.

6

Transmission:connectingoffshoreandlarge-scalegeneration

Executivesummary

Transmissioninvestmentwillmakeorbreak

Introductiontothechallengeahead

the50GWoffshorewindtarget

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

Thegridwillmakeorbreakthegovernment’stargettodeploy50GWof

offshorewindby2030.Investmentintransmissioncapacityisfallingbehind

deployment,leadingtocostsofmanagingconstraintsofover£1bnin2022.

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Ofgemhasadoptedamajorpolicyshiftbyenablingnetworkstoinvest

strategicallybasedonaCentralisedStrategicNetworkPlan.Thechallengeis

nowdeliveringthescaleofinvestmentrequired.Thegovernmentshouldfully

implementtherecommendationsofNickWinser,theElectricityNetworks

Commissioner,toensurenetworkplanningprocessesandsupplychainsarefit

forpurposeforcriticaltransmissioninvestmentprojects.

Recommendations

3.2Ensurethesupplychainhassufficientcapacitytodeliverprojects

Investmentintransmissionnetworksisgrowingrapidlyacrosstheglobe.Thegovernment,theFutureSystemOperatorandtransmissionnetworkoperatorsneedtoimplementaneffectivesupplychainplantoensurethattransmissionprojectsarenotdelayedbythesupplyofcriticalcomponentsorthecapacityofthesupplychaintodeliver.

3.3Speeduptheplanningand

consentingprocess

Thegovernmentneedstoissueanationalplanningpolicystatementontheimportanceofelectricitynetworkinfrastructure.Thisshouldensurethatnetzeroisgivenproperweightindecision-makingandthatcommunitybenefitsaredeliveredinareashostingcriticalenergyinfrastructure.

3.1TheFutureSystemOperatorneeds

acleartimelineandremit

EstablishingtheFSOasapublicbodywitha

remittooverseeaclearstrategicplanforthe

transmissionnetworkisakeystep.The

governmentmustensuretheFSOisupand

runningassoonaspossiblewithaclear

strategicdirectiontodelivernetzeroandthe

independenceandcapacitytodeliver.

7

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Wholesystem:investmenttoachievethetransformation

Executivesummary

Significantgridinvestmentisrequired,

butthiswilldelivervaluetohouseholds

Introductiontothe

challengeahead

ThegovernmentandOfgemestimatethat£170-210bnwillneedtobeinvestedinthegridby2050toachieveournetzeroandenergygoals.£70bnofthisisbaselineinvestment.Theextra£100-£140bnwillunlockmassivenetzeroandenergysecuritybenefitsforallofus.

Lowernetworkcostsperunitofelectricity

By2050electricitynetworkswillbeprovidingmorevaluetohouseholdsbydeliveringthepowerweneedtoheatourhomesandgetaround.Becauseofthis,thecostofthenetworkperunitofenergyweusecouldfalldespitetheextrainvestmentinthenetworkrequired.

Anetenergyexporterby2040

Bydoublingdownonhome-generatedrenewables,GreatBritaincouldturnitsnetenergyimportof725TWhtodayinto25TWhofnetexportby2040.

Lowercostelectricityforconsumers

Evenbeforethefossilfuelpricecrisis,thecostofrenewableshadfallenbelowthatoffossilfuelgeneration.Fit-for-purposegridinfrastructureandanefficientmarketwillenablecustomerstobenefitfromthesecostsavings.

Economicopportunityofthe21stcentury

Secure,cleanenergywillprovideafoundationforoureconomy.Thegovernmentexpectsgreenindustrieswillcreate480,000jobsby2030.

Asmoreelectricityflowsacrossthenetworks,investingfornetzerowillmeanlowernetworkcostsperunit

Average

network

costs

(£/MWh)

55

50

45

40

NetZerohighdemand

NetZerolowdemand

35Baseline

30

2020202520302035204020452050

Source:Electricitynetworksstrategicframework

AppendixI

Figure13,DepartmentforEnergySecurityandNetZero.

8

Executivesummary

Introductiontothe

challengeahead

1.Lowvoltage

distribution

2.Transmission-

distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Summary

Therearechallengesacrossthegrid

Network

1.Lowvoltage

distribution:

preparingforawaveofconsumerelectrification

Criticalchallenges

Upgradingthelow-voltagenetworksformillionsofEVsandheatpumpsisamajorundertaking.Thecurrentnetworkregulatoryregimedoesnotprovidetheframeworktosupportthistransformation.

Keyinitiatives

•Ofgemisconsultingonanewregulatoryregime

•Networksarecarryingoutstrategicreinforcementinformedbyfuturedemandmodellingandassetmonitoring

2.Transmission-

distributioninterface:

connectingonshorerenewablesandstorage

Afailuretoinveststrategicallyingridcapacitymeansleadtimesforconnectinglargerenewableandstorageprojectsareover15years.

•ShiftinOfgem’sinvestmentregimesogridcapacityisdevelopedreadyfornewlowcarbongenerationprojectstoconnect

•ESO’sGBConnectionsReform

3.Transmission:

connectingoffshoreandlarge-scalegeneration

Ofgemhasbeenslowtoapproveinvestmentinlargetransmissionprojects.Theseprojectsareinherentlychallengingwithlongleadtimes.

•NewframeworkforAcceleratedStrategic

TransmissionInvestment(ASTI)

•CentralisedStrategicNetworkPlantobedevelopedbytheFutureSystemOperator(FSO),anewpublicbody

Recommendations

1.1Networksmustinvestaheadof

increasingdemand

1.2Ofgemmustprovidestrategic

leadershiptoenablenetzero

1.3Governmentshouldcommitto

electrifyingheatandtransport

2.1Deliveroninvestmentaheadof

need

2.2Reformtheconnectionsprocess

2.3Reformtheapproachfor

interactionbetweentransmission

anddistributionnetworks

3.1TheFutureSystemOperator

needsacleartimelineandremit

3.2Ensurethesupplychainhas

sufficientcapacitytodeliverprojects

3.3Speeduptheplanningand

consentingprocess

Executivesummary

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Electricitynetworkinfrastructureis

criticaltonetzeroandenergysecurity

TheUKgovernmenthascommittedtoachievingnetzerocarbonemissionsby2050andshiftingfromimportedfossilfuelstodomesticrenewables.By2035,thegovernmentaimstohavedecarbonisedtheUK’selectricitysystem.

Gettingtonetzerowillincreaseelectricitydemandforheat,transportandindustrialactivities.Thisincreaseindemandwillbemetbygreaterdomesticpowergeneration,interconnectorsandenergystorage.Asaresult,generationcapacitywillincreasefromabout100GWto180-220GWin2035.

Thereisahugepipelineofgenerationandstorageprojectswithagreementstoconnecttothegrid.

However,afailuretoinveststrategicallymeansnetworkinfrastructureisnowasignificantbarriertoourpolicygoals.Thetimescaleforconnectinganewprojecttothetransmissionnetworkisnowtypicallyover15years.

ThegovernmentandOfgemhaverecognisedthecriticalroleofelectricitynetworks,andextensivechangesinourapproachtonetworksareunderway.

Thisreportaimstosetout

•thescaleofthechallengetoupgradeournetworks

•theinitiativesunderway

•thekeyprioritiestoensurenetworkinfrastructureisnotabarriertonetzero

20

Emissionspathwaytoadecarbonisedpowersystemin2035

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Emissions

(MtCO2e)

0

Source:DepartmentforEnergySecurityandNetZero,

NetZeroStrategy

.

9

10

Demandmetbyelectricityimport

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

Annualelectricitydemand

(TWh)

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Export

Electricitydemandwillnearlydoubleby2035

Demandforelectricitywill

increaseasitreplacesfossilfuels

forheating,transportand

industrialprocesses.Whilstsome

decarbonisationpathwaysare

stilltobedetermined,we

alreadyknowwithhigh

confidencethatheating,

transportandindustrialdemand

forelectricitywillincrease

substantiallyby2035.

Whilstelectricitydemandwill

increase,thehigherefficiencyof

electricvehiclesandheatpumps

willenableconsumerstotravel

andhavewarmhomesusingless

energyandsavingmoney.

2023202520272029203120332035

Source:ESOFutureEnergyScenarios2022,ConsumerTransformationscenario.

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Netzerorequiresapowersystemtransformation

Executivesummary

Electricity

demand

Electricitygeneration

11

Annual

generation

(TWh)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

FossilfuelsOtherrenewablesOnshorewind

Offshore

wind

Solar

CCS,biomass&hydrogenNuclear

2023202520272029203120332035

Note:50-100TWhofelectricitywillbeexportedannuallyviainterconnectorsby2035.Source:ESOFutureEnergyScenarios2022,ConsumerTransformationscenario.

Demandwillincreasinglybemetwithrenewablegeneration

Allnetzeropathwaysenvisage

veryhighlevelsofrenewable

electricitygeneration.By2035,

75-80%ofelectricitysupplywill

likelybesourcedfrom

renewables.

Resiliencewillbeprovidedby

technologicalandgeographical

diversityofrenewablegeneration

alongsideinterconnectionto

neighbouringcountries,flexible

demandandelectricitystorage.

Combiningthesetechnologies

willreducethefrequencyand

magnitudeoftimeswhenthereis

toomuchortoolittlegeneration.

Regen's

'DayintheLife'

reportwiththeElectricitySystem

Operatorshowshowanetzero

powersystemcouldwork.

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Netzerorequiresapowersystemtransformation

Executivesummary

Electricity

demand

Electricitygeneration

12

Executivesummary

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Thescaleofthechallenge

Theenergytransitionisstillatarelativelyearlystage.However,therearealreadysignsoftheneedtoinvestinthegridasacriticalpartofthetransition.Forexample,thenumberofapplicationstoconnecttothetransmissionnetworkinthefirstthreemonthsof2023wasmorethantwoandahalftimesthetotalforthewholeof2018.

Weknowwecanrisetothescaleofthechallenge.TheUKhasachievedrapidgrowthinelectricitysysteminfrastructureinthepast.

Between1950and1975,electricitygenerationandassociatedgridcapacityincreasedalmostfive-fold.

Rapidelectricitysystemexpansionhashappenedbefore

Capacity

(GW)

100

80

60

40

20

0

195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020

Generationcapacity

Peak

demand

Source:

Ofgem

,Consultationonframeworksforfuturesystemsandnetworkregulation:enablinganenergysystemforthefuture.

13

Introductiontothechallengeahead

Executivesummary

Thisreportsetsoutthe

scaleofthechallengeacross

thegrid

1.Lowvoltage

distribution

2.Transmission-

distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

Executivesummary

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

ESO

ElectricitySystemOperator

Transmissionoperators

Extrahighvoltageoperation(400kV,275kV,132kV)

33kV,11kV,<1kV)

Keyparticipants

Ofgem

Regulator

Distributionnetworkoperators

Generators

Highandlowvoltageoperation(typically132kV,

Electricitygenerationcanconnecttoeitherthe

transmissionordistributionnetwork.

Generationover50MWtendstobe

connectedattransmissionlevel,andprojects

withlowercapacityaretypicallyconnectedto

thedistributionnetwork.

Interconnection

High-voltagecablesconnectGB

totheelectricitysystemsof

neighbouringcountriesin

IrelandandmainlandEurope.

Storage

Thereiscurrentlyabout2.5GW/3GWhofbatterystorageconnectedacrosstransmissionanddistributionnetworks.Thiscapacitycoulddoubleby2024.

Transmission-

Energyconsumers

connecteddemand

Somelargeindustrialandtransportdemandsareconnecteddirectlytothetransmissionnetwork.

14

Alldomesticandmostcommercialconsumersareconnectedtothedistributionnetwork.

Executivesummary

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

15

Networkoperationandregulation

TheelectricitynetworkinGreatBritainconsistsofahigh-voltageonshoreandoffshoretransmissionnetworkandalower-voltagedistributionnetwork.

Theonshoreelectricitynetworkconsistsofapproximately20,000kmofhigh-voltagetransmissioncablesand800,000kmoflower-voltagedistributionlines.Electricityistransportedathighvoltagetominimiseenergylostintheformofheat,andsubstationstransformthepowertolowervoltagesforusebyconsumers.

ThegridisownedandoperatedbyprivatisednetworkoperatorsunderaframeworkofmonopolyregulationsetbyOfgem,theindustryregulator.Thenetworksarenaturalmonopolies:customerscannotswitchtoadifferentnetworkwithoutphysicallymovingtoadifferentlicencearea.

Theregulatorusespricecontrolperiodstosettheallowedrevenuesfornetworkcompanies.Theserevenuesaresetatalevelthatcoversthecompanies’costsandallowsthemtoearnareasonablereturnsubjecttothemdeliveringvalueforconsumersandachievingtheirtargetsassetbytheregulator.

Thecurrentregulatorymodel,RIIO(Revenue=Incentives+

Innovation+Outputs),wasintroducedtoincentivisenetworksto

deliverarangeofoutputsandbetteroverallperformance.The

transmissionpricecontrolsanddistributionpricecontrolsare

managedseparatelyoverdifferentperiods.

Pricecontroltimeline

RIIO-ET1

RIIO-ED1RIIO-ED2

RIIO-ET2

TheElectricitySystemOperator(ESO)managestheelectricitysysteminrealtime.CurrentlyownedbyNationalGrid,theESOwillbecomepartofthenewFutureSystemOperator(ayet-to-be-establishedindependentpublicsectorbody).

ElectricityTransmission(ET)

ElectricityDistribution(ED)

16

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

1.Lowvoltagedistribution:

Executivesummary

Introductiontothechallengeahead

preparingfora

waveofconsumer

electrification

2.Transmission-

distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

17

Domesticheating

By2035,80%ofvehiclesontheroadcouldbeelectric,and41%ofhouseholdscoulduseelectricityastheirenergysourceforheating.Thiswillincreaseelectricitydemand.However,overallprimaryenergydemandfortransportationandheatingwillfallduetothehighenergyconversionefficienciesofelectricvehicles(EVs)andheatpumpscomparedtointernalcombustionenginesandgasboilers.

Introductiontothechallengeahead

1.Lowvoltagedistribution

2.Transmission-distributioninterface

3.Transmission

Investmenttogetthere

EVsandheatpumpswilldriveconsumerelectricitydemand

Executivesummary

Domesticvehicles

100%

Homeheatingsource(%)

Inanetzeroscenario,itispossiblethatby2035oversevenmillionhouseholds(23%)willuseaheatpumpfortheirspaceandwaterheating.Thegovernmentisaimingforover600,000heatpumpinstallationsperyearby2028.

Heatpumpsdeliveraroundthreeunitsofheatforeachunitofelectricityused.So,whilstthenumberofhomesheatedwithelectricitycouldincreaseninefoldby2050,theannualelectricitydemandfordomesticheatingwouldonlyincreasebyafactorof3.5.

77%

50%

Almostninetimes

asmanyhouseholdsusingelectricityforheating…

0%

9%

20222026203020342038204220462050

500

400

300

200

100

0

Annualenergydemand(TWh)

…butonly3.5xtheannualelectricitydemandduetothehighefficiencyofheatpumps

Thereisstilluncertaintyovertherateof

electrification,butitisincreasinglyclearfromthe

evidence

thathydrogenwillhavealimitedrolein

heatingourhomes.Thegridmustbereadyfora

veryfastroll-outofheatpumps.Preparationfor

thishasbeenattheheartofthedistribution

networks’five-yearbusinessplans.

22TWh

81TWh

Note:AllfiguresfromNationalGrid’sFutureEnergy

Scenarios(2022),ConsumerTransformation

scenario.

20222026203020342038204220462050

18

Domesticheating

By2035,80%ofvehiclesontheroadcouldbeelectric,and41%ofhouseholdscoulduseelectricityastheirenergysourceforheating.Thiswillincreaseelectricitydeman