从财报看银行股配置逻辑的变化

CONTENTS目录经营概况：盈利增速回落至近年低位资产负债：积极扩表息差定价：底部运行非息业务：恢复进行时资产质量：夯实与稳定投资建议：板块配置当时风险因素21.1

财务概况：利润增速回落至近年最低位34家A股上市银行营收及盈利累计增速数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部营收增速底部运行：近两个季度上市银行营业收入增速分别为0.7

/1.4归母净利润增速走低：近两个季度上市银行归母净利润增速分别为7.6

/2.36.07.77.95.64.92.80.71.412.913.612.68.77.58.07.62.30.02.0 3.74.06.0

4.516.014.012.010.08.021Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1营业收入YoY 归母净利润YoY31.2

盈利拆分：净息、中收与拨备相对拖累，一季度其他非息正贡献4上市银行主要盈利要素同比增长情况（累计）数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部利息净收入增速继续下行：贷款重定价后置因素中间业务表现仍处修复期：主要受资本市场和财富市场波动影响其他非息收入“先抑后扬”：债券市场“V”型走势一季度拨备支撑作用有所收敛：信贷投放提速带来的拨备计提前置21Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1利息净收入，YoY5.0%5.1%4.5%4.0%2.7%-1.8%手续费及佣金净收入，YoY6.4%3.5%0.7%-0.7%-2.9%-4.2%其他非息收入，YoY31.6%11.4%12.6%0.6%-6.8%44.0%营业收入，YoY7.9%5.6%4.9%2.8%0.7%1.4%业务及管理费，YoY13.5%7.1%8.4%7.8%4.6%5.2%资产减值损失，YoY-4.1%-0.8%-1.0%-6.7%-12.2%-6.3%所得税，YoY12.0%-1.9%-5.3%-6.1%-7.8%-4.0%归母净利润，YoY12.6%8.7%7.5%8.0%7.6%2.3%1.3

各类银行表现：大行好于预期，股份行偏弱，区域行占优大型银行收入表现优于盈利表现股份行收入与盈利相对较为乏力城农商行业绩表现相对占优数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部各类上市银行营业收入累计同比增速各类上市银行归母净利润累计同比增速-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0022Q2 22Q322Q423Q1大银行 股份行 城商行 农商行2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%0.00%22Q2 22Q3数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部22Q423Q1大银行 股份行 城商行 农商行561.4

个体银行：盈利增速再分化经营区位景气、业务具备特色、扩表速度较快的银行，盈利表现更为占优营业收入累计，YoY归母净利润累计，YoY22Q222Q322Q423Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工商银行4.2%-0.1%-2.6%-1.1%4.9%5.6%3.5%0.0%建设银行4.7%1.0%-0.2%1.0%5.4%6.5%7.1%0.0%农业银行5.9%3.6%0.7%2.2%5.5%5.8%7.4%1.8%中国银行3.4%2.6%2.1%11.6%6.3%5.8%5.0%0.5%交通银行7.1%5.1%1.3%5.5%4.8%5.5%5.2%5.6%邮储银行10.0%7.8%5.1%3.5%14.9%14.5%11.9%5.2%大银行5.2%2.4%0.3%3.0%6.0%6.5%6.0%1.2%中信银行2.7%3.4%3.3%-4.9%12.0%12.8%11.6%10.3%招商银行6.1%5.3%4.1%-1.5%13.5%14.2%15.1%7.8%民生银行-15.5%-16.9%-15.6%0.4%-7.2%-4.8%2.6%3.7%兴业银行6.3%4.1%0.5%-6.7%11.9%12.1%10.5%-8.9%浦发银行1.3%0.1%-1.2%-3.8%1.1%-2.6%-3.5%-18.3%光大银行1.8%0.4%-0.7%-1.6%3.8%4.3%3.2%5.3%华夏银行0.7%0.6%-2.2%-3.7%5.0%5.4%6.4%4.1%平安银行8.7%8.7%6.2%-2.4%25.6%25.8%25.3%13.6%浙商银行22.5%18.1%12.1%2.5%1.8%9.1%7.7%9.9%股份行2.8%1.9%0.4%-2.9%8.6%9.4%9.8%1.5%南京银行16.3%16.1%9.0%5.5%20.1%21.3%16.1%8.2%宁波银行17.6%15.2%9.7%8.5%18.4%20.2%18.1%15.3%北京银行1.7%3.2%0.0%-6.9%7.9%6.5%11.4%1.9%江苏银行14.2%14.9%10.7%10.3%31.2%31.3%28.9%24.8%贵阳银行9.5%10.5%4.3%3.1%0.5%0.9%1.0%1.1%杭州银行16.3%16.5%12.2%7.5%31.7%31.8%26.1%28.1%上海银行0.9%0.5%-5.5%-7.1%3.2%3.1%1.1%3.2%营业收入累计，YoY归母净利润累计，YoY22Q222Q322Q423Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1成都银行17.0%16.1%13.1%9.7%31.5%31.6%28.2%17.5%郑州银行8.9%12.3%2.0%-3.0%3.1%2.1%-24.9%1.9%长沙银行8.7%10.2%9.6%12.9%2.9%6.2%8.0%8.7%青岛银行16.6%16.3%4.6%15.5%12.3%7.3%5.5%15.8%西安银行-8.5%-8.4%-8.8%17.0%-13.4%-12.4%-13.5%8.2%苏州银行8.0%11.5%8.6%5.3%25.1%25.9%26.1%20.8%厦门银行18.2%15.4%10.9%5.0%15.1%19.0%15.6%15.0%重庆银行-7.0%-4.7%-7.2%1.5%4.7%4.2%4.4%2.7%齐鲁银行19.1%17.2%8.8%8.7%18.0%19.9%18.2%12.3%兰州银行-3.0%-5.0%-4.9%12.0%10.5%7.4%10.7%10.5%城商行9.5%9.8%5.0%4.0%14.7%15.2%13.7%11.7%江阴银行26.0%21.9%12.3%4.0%22.1%22.4%26.9%12.8%无锡银行6.7%6.6%3.0%3.6%30.3%20.7%26.7%23.2%常熟银行18.9%18.6%15.1%13.3%20.0%25.2%25.4%20.6%苏农银行6.4%6.7%5.3%1.4%20.9%20.6%29.4%16.0%张家港行5.7%7.0%4.6%-0.6%27.8%30.1%29.0%17.4%紫金银行2.7%2.0%0.1%1.5%10.1%7.2%5.6%5.5%青农商行-3.1%-4.9%-3.4%7.2%5.1%2.4%-24.4%5.6%渝农商行1.0%-2.2%-6.0%-3.3%11.3%5.6%7.5%9.2%瑞丰银行13.4%10.6%6.5%8.1%20.4%21.3%20.2%16.2%沪农商行7.0%7.6%6.1%7.5%14.3%17.1%13.2%12.4%农商行5.4%4.1%1.6%3.5%14.4%13.0%11.1%11.8%合计4.9%2.8%0.7%1.4%7.5%8.0%7.6%2.3%数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部上市银行主要盈利要素同比增长情况（累计）1.5

小结盈利增速回落至近年最低位置4Q22与1Q23，A股上市银行营业收入增速分别为0.7

/1.4归母净利润增速分别为7.6

/2.3

，为2020年中以来的最低水平基本面要素景气低位上年度LPR降息带来贷款重定价的滞后影响，1Q23利息净收入同比-1.8银行信贷投放提速带来当期减值准备的计提增加，一季度资产减值同比增速较上年全年提高5.9pct资本市场波动对中间业务仍有扰动，当季手续费及佣金净收入同比-4.2银行个体分化再走扩优质区域+特色经营的银行个体经营业绩表现更优行业业绩修复可期伴随着贷款重定价因素的一次性体现，以及信贷投放回归常态后的减值计提常态化，预计年内后续季度行业营收与盈利增速都有望呈现修复趋势7CONTENTS目录经营概况：盈利增速回落至近年低位资产负债：积极扩表息差定价：底部运行非息业务：恢复进行时资产质量：夯实与稳定投资建议：板块配置当时风险因素82.1.1

资产端：一季度银行业资产扩张积极银行业资产扩张积极：上市银行2023Q1末总资产季度环比+5.6%（2022Q1末季度环比+4.8%）上市银行总资产季度环比增速5.5%2.1%1.8%0.6%4.0%1.8%0.8%1.1%4.8%3.0%1.8%1.4%5.6%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：由于瑞丰银行、沪农商行上市前部分季度盈利数据缺失，上述计算中对以上两家银行予以剔除2020 2021 2022 20239102.1.2

资产端：各类生息资产均有增长，信贷贡献主要增量上市银行2023Q1末贷款、投资、同业资产季度环比+5.4%/+3.7%/+18.0%（2022Q1末季度环比+4.7%/+2.7%/+14.4%）一季度上市银行各类生息资产均有增长，其中信贷投放贡献主要增量，同比多增近1.7万亿元2023Q1末投资资产、同业资产同比分别多增约9,300亿元/8,400亿元，反映了当季较为充裕的流动性环境上市银行一季度信贷投放高景气一季度银行各类生息资产均有增长(40,000)(20,000)020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,00021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：由于瑞丰银行、沪农商行上市前部分季度盈利数据缺失，上述计算中对以上两家银行予以剔除贷款 投资 同业（亿元）-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%21Q1

21Q2

21Q3

21Q4

22Q1

22Q2

22Q3

22Q4

23Q1贷款

QoQ 投资

QoQ 同业

QoQ数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：由于瑞丰银行、沪农商行上市前部分季度盈利数据缺失，上述计算中对以上两家银行予以剔除112.1.3

资产端：大行与高景气区域行表现更为积极分银行类型来看，大行与农商行资产扩张更为积极2023Q1末，大行、股份行、城商和农商行总资产季度环比分别+6.3

/+4.0

/+4.7

/+6.02022Q12022H2022Q32022N2023Q1大银行5.4%3.7%2.3%1.0%6.3%股份行3.4%1.4%0.5%2.0%4.0%城商行5.0%2.7%1.7%2.9%4.7%农商行3.8%1.2%1.5%2.1%6.0%各类型上市银行总资产季度环比增长情况数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部上市银行总资产季度环比增长情况22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工商银行6.0%3.9%2.1%0.1%6.1%上海银行3.9%2.1%2.4%-0.1%3.2%建设银行5.8%5.2%1.8%0.9%6.8%成都银行9.0%6.7%1.5%1.1%7.4%农业银行6.3%5.0%4.3%0.3%8.5%郑州银行0.0%1.6%2.0%-0.8%2.5%中国银行2.8%2.2%2.1%1.0%5.1%长沙银行3.8%4.0%2.2%3.0%5.5%交通银行5.6%2.1%0.9%2.4%5.1%青岛银行1.0%1.7%-1.0%-0.3%4.3%邮储银行5.5%1.1%0.7%4.0%4.5%西安银行-1.5%3.6%3.0%11.5%2.5%大银行5.4%3.7%2.3%1.0%6.3%苏州银行9.7%1.7%0.8%2.9%5.8%中信银行2.4%0.5%4.2%-0.9%2.8%厦门银行4.3%2.3%3.4%2.1%-1.6%招商银行1.8%3.3%-0.2%4.4%3.6%重庆银行3.9%3.2%1.0%2.1%3.6%民生银行2.9%2.3%-2.5%1.7%4.8%齐鲁银行4.5%4.2%3.9%3.1%4.5%兴业银行2.6%1.8%1.2%2.0%6.0%兰州银行3.1%4.9%0.9%-0.3%6.0%浦发银行3.5%1.0%-0.9%3.3%1.8%城商行5.0%2.7%1.7%2.9%4.7%光大银行5.8%0.2%0.1%0.6%6.3%江阴银行3.1%1.4%2.0%3.3%4.4%华夏银行4.0%0.5%0.0%1.5%3.3%无锡银行3.1%0.1%0.9%0.7%7.0%平安银行4.0%-0.2%1.7%2.4%2.5%常熟银行9.0%2.3%3.3%1.3%10.1%浙商银行8.5%1.6%0.9%3.1%4.8%苏农银行3.3%3.9%3.5%2.3%5.7%股份行3.4%1.4%0.5%2.0%4.0%张家港行6.5%1.3%4.1%1.5%3.4%南京银行7.6%1.6%1.7%5.9%4.3%紫金银行10.3%-0.2%-1.9%0.7%13.6%宁波银行10.1%0.9%3.4%2.2%6.7%青农商行2.8%0.4%-1.8%-0.3%6.5%北京银行2.6%1.9%-0.5%6.4%3.4%渝农商行3.4%0.5%1.1%1.6%5.9%江苏银行5.6%3.8%1.8%2.0%7.0%瑞丰银行4.8%6.0%4.2%0.8%13.7%贵阳银行2.5%0.9%1.6%1.0%2.8%沪农商行2.0%1.6%2.5%4.1%3.1%杭州银行4.8%5.2%2.0%3.4%4.9%农商行3.8%1.2%1.5%2.1%6.0%122.1.3

资产端：大行与高景气区域行表现更为积极数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部个体而言，大行与高景气区域行资产扩张更为积极2.1.3

资产端：大行与高景气区域行表现更为积极数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部各类型上市银行资产及细项同比增长情况总资产信贷投资同业总资产信贷投资同业大银行12.8%12.7%12.2%31.1%13.9%13.7%12.6%38.5%股份行7.4%6.9%11.2%0.3%8.0%7.3%13.0%0.3%城商行12.8%13.5%12.5%19.7%12.5%12.7%14.8%7.6%农商行8.9%10.6%12.2%-8.5%11.2%10.2%18.1%-4.8%132022(YoY) 2023Q1(YoY)2023Q1大行、城农商行信贷同比均达两位数增速，股份行信贷增速相对偏缓，推测受零售贷款增长乏力拖累各类型银行投资资产均保持高景气大行同业资产保持高增2.1.3

资产端：大行与高景气区域行表现更为积极上市银行资产及细项同比增长情况总资产工行建行农行中行交行邮储大银行中信招商民生兴业浦发光大华夏平安浙商股份行南京宁波北京江苏贵阳12.6%14.4%16.7%8.2%11.4%11.8%12.8%6.3%9.6%4.4%7.7%7.0%6.8%6.1%8.1%14.7%7.4%17.8%17.4%10.8%13.8%6.1%12.3%12.7%15.1%11.7%11.2%11.7%12.7%8.6%2.4%12.5%2.4%8.0%2.7%8.7%13.1%19.7%6.9%7.4%14.6%11.9%19.3%6.6%13.7%11.8%15.8%4.6%12.3%14.0%12.2%27.4%9.4%5.3%10.2%11.5%12.0%5.7%15.3%13.4%11.2%14.1%14.8%1.8%14.0%11.1%27.9%85.6%53.2%4.4%9.1%9.2%31.1%-21.0%8.5%-10.1%45.7%-26.6%12.2%52.9%-7.5%67.0%0.3%24.5%4.2%-30.1%1.6%15.1%12.7%15.4%19.2%10.7%10.8%10.7%13.9%6.7%11.6%6.2%11.4%5.2%7.2%5.3%6.6%10.7%8.0%14.1%13.8%11.5%15.3%6.5%13.5%14.1%16.4%12.6%10.9%12.0%13.7%7.9%10.0%3.5%11.0%2.5%7.5%2.5%9.0%11.7%7.3%17.2%18.0%2.8%14.8%13.5%15.7%12.0%14.9%6.8%12.2%11.3%12.6%5.3%25.4%12.4%11.4%15.7%11.3%15.8%2.1%15.9%13.0%12.9%18.3%20.0%17.1%2.6%23.4%89.7%55.1%30.3%6.9%9.3%38.5%6.3%-11.1%13.2%26.4%-15.9%-16.6%-22.5%31.9%-20.5%0.3%28.8%46.8%6.4%24.1%-66.2%

杭州 16.3% 25.2% 13.2% 15.8% 16.4% 19.0% 18.4% -22.3%数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部 2022(YoY) 2023Q1(YoY) 2022(YoY) 2023Q1(YoY)14信贷 投资 同业 总资产 信贷 投资 同业 总资产 信贷 投资 同业 总资产 信贷 投资同业上海成都郑州长沙青岛西安苏州厦门重庆齐鲁兰州城商行江阴无锡常熟苏农张家港紫金青农商渝农商瑞丰沪农商8.5%19.4%2.9%13.6%1.4%17.3%15.8%12.7%10.6%16.8%8.9%12.8%10.2%4.9%16.7%13.6%13.9%8.7%1.0%6.8%16.6%10.6%14.5%15.3%10.2%4.3%17.5%14.5%10.9%18.8%4.8%12.7%9.2%13.5%14.5%15.2%14.4%3.3%8.7%21.0%9.3%12.7%6.9%13.5%-7.3%7.1%6.4%40.2%9.5%7.3%12.2%18.1%5.8%9.4%-2.7%12.5%21.3%11.9%-6.2%-2.0%9.9%22.8%25.3%12.2%11.2%12.5%-21.6%146.8%-45.0%-12.8%44.4%44.1%-3.2%12.9%40.1%-15.5%25.6%19.7%-13.0%9.0%0.3%6.3%-5.5%-43.2%-13.1%31.1%0.3%19.7%7.7%17.6%5.4%15.5%4.8%22.1%11.6%6.3%10.3%16.7%12.0%12.5%11.6%8.9%18.0%16.2%10.6%12.0%4.7%9.4%26.6%11.8%6.9%29.6%11.7%17.9%10.8%6.6%17.2%11.8%12.0%17.9%9.8%12.7%12.0%9.7%18.1%13.4%11.3%11.5%2.9%9.3%21.8%8.6%11.6%11.5%-3.2%11.1%0.4%49.1%7.1%10.0%26.4%14.9%4.6%14.8%16.6%5.9%23.0%24.7%10.6%16.9%13.1%14.4%29.1%26.9%0.2%-2.9%-0.7%60.5%55.4%-13.9%6.5%2.3%-32.8%73.0%53.7%7.6%-38.4%48.0%-33.2%15.1%30.0%4.1%-16.4%-2.0%21.8%-9.8%农商行

8.9%

10.6%

12.2%

-8.5%

11.2%

10.2%

18.1%

-4.8%

2.2.1

负债端：一季度银行业负债增速与资产匹配银行业负债增速与资产匹配：上市银行2023Q1末总负债季度环比+5.9%（2022Q1末季度环比+5.0%）上市银行总负债季度环比增速5.6%2.3%1.7%0.5%4.1%1.8%0.6%0.9%5.0%3.3%1.6%1.3%5.9%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：由于瑞丰银行、沪农商行上市前部分季度盈利数据缺失，上述计算中对以上两家银行予以剔除2020 2021 2022 202315162.2.2

负债端：一季度负债增长以存款为主，同业负债增速下降上市银行2023Q1末存款、债券、同业负债季度环比+7.3%/-0.2%/+2.1%（2022Q1末季度环比+6.0%/+4.1%/-0.7%）一季度上市银行存款高增12.7万亿元，一方面居民投资风险偏好降低存在惯性，财富管理配置延续回流存款，另一方面亦受益于信贷积极投放派生当季资金市场利率有所抬升，以同业负债为代表的高成本的主动负债增速有所回落数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：由于瑞丰银行、沪农商行上市前部分季度盈利数据缺失，上述计算中对以上两家银行予以剔除上市银行一季度存款增长明显一季度上市银行存款增速大幅提升，增速同业负债增速下降数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部

注：由于瑞丰银行、沪农商行上市前部分季度盈利数据缺失，上述计算中对以上两家银行予以剔除(20,000)020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,00021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1存款 债券 同业（亿元）0%-1%-2%2%1%8%7%6%5%4%3%21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1存款

QoQ 债券

QoQ 同业

QoQ2.2.3

负债端：负债总量匹配资产但结构差异明显分银行类型来看，负债均匹配资产增速2023Q1末，大行、股份行、城商和农商行总负债季度环比分别+6.7

/+4.1

/+4.8

/+6.22022Q12022H2022Q32022N2023Q1大银行5.4%3.7%2.3%1.0%6.3%股份行3.4%1.4%0.5%2.0%4.0%城商行5.0%2.7%1.7%2.9%4.7%农商行3.8%1.2%1.5%2.1%6.0%各类型上市银行总负债季度环比增长情况17数据来源：各公司财报，中信证券研究部2.2.3

负债端：负债总量匹配资产但结构差异明显18数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部上市银行总负债季度环比增长情况22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工商银行6.4%4.3%2.0%-0.1%6.5%上海银行4.0%2.2%2.4%-0.3%3.2%建设银行6.1%5.8%1.5%0.8%7.1%成都银行9.3%7.2%1.2%0.8%7.6%农业银行6.4%5.5%4.3%0.2%9.0%郑州银行-0.2%1.5%2.1%1.1%2.5%中国银行2.8%2.2%2.0%0.9%5.4%长沙银行3.9%4.3%2.1%3.1%5.7%交通银行6.0%2.3%0.8%2.4%5.4%青岛银行0.0%1.8%-0.7%-0.3%4.4%邮储银行5.4%1.2%1.0%4.2%4.3%西安银行-1.8%4.0%3.1%12.4%2.5%大银行5.6%4.0%2.2%0.9%6.7%苏州银行9.5%1.8%0.6%3.1%6.0%中信银行2.4%0.5%4.3%-1.0%2.8%厦门银行4.5%2.5%3.5%2.1%-1.9%招商银行1.6%3.7%-0.6%4.6%3.6%重庆银行3.8%3.5%0.8%2.6%3.5%民生银行3.0%2.4%-2.9%1.8%5.0%齐鲁银行4.8%4.6%4.0%3.0%4.7%兴业银行2.4%2.1%1.0%1.9%6.3%兰州银行2.7%5.4%0.8%-0.3%6.4%浦发银行3.6%1.1%-1.1%3.5%1.8%城商行5.2%2.8%1.6%3.0%4.8%光大银行6.2%0.2%-0.1%0.5%6.3%江阴银行3.2%1.6%1.9%3.2%4.6%华夏银行4.3%0.6%-0.2%1.3%4.0%无锡银行3.2%-0.1%0.9%-0.6%7.5%平安银行4.1%-0.3%1.6%2.5%2.5%常熟银行9.4%2.5%3.0%1.3%10.7%浙商银行9.7%1.6%0.7%3.2%4.9%苏农银行3.3%4.1%3.3%2.7%5.9%股份行3.5%1.5%0.3%2.1%4.1%张家港行6.8%1.5%4.1%1.5%3.3%南京银行2.7%2.2%-0.8%7.1%3.5%紫金银行11.1%-0.3%-2.3%0.7%14.5%宁波银行7.9%1.5%1.5%5.1%4.3%青农商行2.9%0.3%-2.2%-0.2%6.9%北京银行10.6%0.7%3.5%2.2%7.0%渝农商行3.5%0.4%1.0%1.7%6.2%江苏银行5.8%4.1%1.7%2.0%7.3%瑞丰银行5.0%6.5%4.3%0.6%14.9%贵阳银行2.4%1.0%1.5%0.9%2.8%沪农商行1.9%1.8%2.4%4.3%3.1%杭州银行4.9%5.5%1.9%3.5%5.0%农商行3.9%1.3%1.4%2.1%6.2%2.2.3

负债端：负债总量匹配资产但结构差异明显分银行类型来看，负债结构差异明显大行和城商行存款增长较好大行和农商行应付债券增长较多股份行和城商行同业负债增长较多数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部各类型上市银行负债及细项同比增长情况总负债存款债券同业总负债存款债券同业大银行13.2%12.7%17.9%16.0%14.4%14.8%17.6%12.1%股份行7.5%10.9%-3.6%7.0%8.1%10.5%-10.4%18.4%城商行13.1%14.0%8.5%17.4%12.8%14.1%1.7%25.0%农商行8.9%10.6%12.2%-8.5%11.2%10.2%18.1%-4.8%192022(YoY) 2023Q1(YoY)2.2.3

负债端：负债总量匹配资产但结构差异明显数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部2022(YoY)2023Q1(YoY)交行11.9%12.9%5.4%1.5%11.2%13.4%6.2%-2.0%邮储12.3%12.0%25.2%31.5%11.1%11.1%9.9%15.4%大银行13.2%12.7%17.9%16.0%14.4%14.8%17.6%12.1%中信6.2%7.7%1.8%8.8%6.6%10.4%-4.1%4.6%招商9.6%18.9%-49.9%-12.5%11.8%16.5%-29.7%2.1%民生4.3%5.9%-8.8%19.0%6.3%6.6%-21.5%28.5%兴业7.6%9.9%3.4%5.1%11.6%11.2%-2.6%15.9%浦发7.2%9.6%1.0%7.5%5.3%8.1%-19.8%37.7%宁波17.8%23.3%14.2%23.4%13.9%22.3%-0.3%16.8%北京11.4%12.8%5.2%16.0%12.3%8.4%12.1%36.3%江苏14.2%12.2%10.5%35.7%15.8%13.6%11.5%42.1%贵阳5.9%7.0%1.2%-3.7%6.4%8.3%-17.8%25.2%杭州16.7%14.8%-0.5%60.3%16.8%15.8%0.0%69.2%总负债存款债券同业总负债存款债券同业总负债存款债券同业总负债存款债券同业工行13.2%13.0%14.5%14.4%13.2%14.3%32.1%0.7%上海8.6%8.5%15.5%-4.0%7.7%10.3%11.3%-2.5%建行14.8%11.8%24.4%40.3%15.9%15.1%23.1%30.3%成都19.5%20.3%49.7%-21.3%17.6%18.9%24.3%7.6%农行17.3%14.7%24.0%45.5%20.2%17.7%27.3%57.0%郑州4.5%6.3%5.5%0.7%7.4%9.7%8.3%-4.9%中行8.1%11.3%11.0%-12.4%10.8%14.3%-0.8%-10.9%长沙13.9%14.2%4.3%23.4%15.9%15.9%14.8%2.0%2022(YoY)2023Q1(YoY)青岛0.8%9.5%-18.8%2.7%5.3%16.3%-25.3%24.0%西安18.3%22.6%-7.2%67.6%23.6%24.2%16.3%-26.5%苏州15.6%16.3%19.6%28.4%11.9%19.5%-4.9%5.7%厦门13.1%11.6%4.8%39.2%6.2%8.5%11.5%-5.0%重庆11.1%13.0%12.6%28.2%10.8%12.4%3.4%56.9%齐鲁17.4%19.8%7.9%-1.5%17.3%21.7%-8.1%3.2%兰州8.8%5.7%13.0%70.4%12.7%5.5%105.0%81.9%光大6.9%6.6%14.7%4.5%7.0%7.3%-0.9%15.2%城商行13.1%14.0%8.5%17.4%12.8%14.1%1.7%25.0%华夏6.0%8.7%-3.1%13.9%5.7%5.9%-0.6%13.5%江阴10.3%10.5%69.8%-44.1%11.7%14.2%29.1%-33.3%平安8.0%12.1%-16.0%11.4%6.3%10.4%-15.5%40.2%无锡3.4%9.5%-55.1%-23.7%7.7%10.3%-45.8%99.2%浙商15.9%18.8%1.3%12.2%10.8%12.9%0.0%19.6%常熟17.0%16.9%-1.8%29.0%18.3%17.5%-29.7%86.8%股份行7.5%10.9%-3.6%7.0%8.1%10.5%-10.4%18.4%苏农14.1%14.0%14.8%11.9%16.9%19.5%-10.5%39.7%南京16.9%15.9%4.2%40.3%13.0%14.1%-37.6%125.8%张家港14.5%15.2%5.4%21.3%10.8%16.6%-25.9%-4.0%紫金8.9%12.7%-42.6%32.9%12.3%13.7%2.0%-3.3%青农商0.7%6.5%-9.6%-3.9%4.7%7.9%-0.8%3.0%渝农商6.6%8.6%-24.1%64.9%9.4%9.7%-19.6%69.5%瑞丰17.4%23.1%-2.5%3.5%28.4%24.8%58.5%172.0%沪农商10.8%12.4%2.2%1.6%12.1%10.9%40.1%14.0%农商行8.8%11.5%-14.8%23.6%11.4%12.1%-4.6%35.5%20个体而言，存款方面分化明显，大行、零售优势银行和部分城商行存款增长较好；部分城农商行在该季度大幅增加同业负债支撑信贷供给上市银行负债及细项同比增长情况2.3

小结资产端：扩张积极，信贷投放高景气总量来看，一季度上市银行资产扩张积极，上市银行总资产季度环比增幅为5.6结构来看，一季度银行各类生息资产均有增长，其中信贷投放贡献主要增量个体而言，大行与高景气区域行表现更为积极负债端：存款高增，主动负债分化总量来看，一季度上市银行负债增速与资产匹配，上市银行总负债季度环比增幅为5.9结构来看，一季度负债增长以存款为主，以同业负债为代表的高成本的主动负债增速有所回落个体而言，负债总量匹配资产但结构差异明显，大行和城商行存款增长较好；部分城农商行在该季度大幅增加同业负债支撑信贷供给21CONTENTS目录经营概况：盈利增速回落至近年低位资产负债：积极扩表息差定价：底部运行非息业务：恢复进行时资产质量：夯实与稳定投资建议：板块配置当时风险因素223.1

行业状况：息差延续拖累净利息收入上市银行2023Q1生息资产规模同比+12.5 ，而净利息收入同比-1.8 ，息差表现延续拖累净利息收入统计一季度上市银行净利息收入同比增速和生息资产同比增速差值，大银行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别为-16.5

/-11.0/-6.7/-10.5大银行息差对净利息收入拖累更为明显，城商行息差拖累相对较小各类型上市银行净利息收入及生息资产累计同比增长情况23Q1同比增速差值（净利息收入-22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1生息资产）大银行6.9%6.0%5.4%3.7%-2.0%8.6%10.6%12.2%13.3%14.5%-16.5%股份行0.7%0.7%0.8%0.6%-3.3%7.6%7.4%6.5%6.7%7.7%-11.0%城商行6.1%5.7%6.1%5.4%4.0%12.3%11.7%10.8%11.7%10.6%-6.7%农商行4.5%3.9%2.7%2.7%0.6%9.1%8.1%8.1%9.7%11.1%-10.5%合计5.1%4.5%4.2%3.0%-1.8%8.7%9.9%10.6%11.5%12.5%-14.3%23净利息收入（累计）（YoY）

生息资产（YoY）数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部3.1

行业状况：息差延续拖累净利息收入招商10.0%8.4%7.6%7.0%1.7%10.6%10.5%9.5%9.9%11.5%-9.7%民生-18.7%-16.6%-16.8%-14.6%-7.9%2.0%3.2%0.4%3.1%5.5%-13.4%兴业2.4%0.7%1.0%-0.3%-6.2%10.6%11.1%7.3%7.5%11.9%-18.1%浦发2.5%1.5%0.2%-1.7%-12.0%3.5%3.3%2.5%5.4%4.0%-16.1%光大0.1%1.4%1.5%1.3%-1.8%10.9%8.4%9.6%7.0%7.6%-9.4%华夏-7.5%-7.3%-6.9%-6.7%-6.3%6.5%6.1%4.0%2.2%1.6%-7.9%平安7.3%7.9%8.7%8.1%0.5%10.8%8.3%7.3%7.9%7.2%-6.7%浙商14.2%14.0%14.4%12.2%2.2%18.6%16.6%16.6%15.0%9.9%-7.7%股份行0.7%0.7%0.8%0.6%-3.3%7.6%7.4%6.5%6.7%7.7%-11.0%南京-0.9%-0.6%0.3%-0.5%4.8%9.9%9.9%9.8%13.8%9.9%-5.1%宁波北京江苏贵阳杭州上海12.6%0.7%13.6%0.9%1.4%9.1%8.3%0.5%14.1%10.2%3.5%5.7%11.3%1.9%12.8%11.5%7.5%1.7%14.8%0.1%14.9%6.5%8.7%-6.0%8.0%-3.4%10.3%7.1%13.6%-11.7%37.2%3.3%11.8%4.6%15.5%10.8%27.8%3.8%10.9%5.0%19.1%9.6%24.0%2.0%11.1%6.8%16.9%9.2%上市银行净利息收入及生息资产增长情况（累计同比）净利息收入（累计）（YoY）生息资产（YoY）23Q1同比增速净利息收入（累计）（YoY）生息资产（YoY）23Q1同比增速22Q122Q2 22Q3 22Q423Q122Q122Q2 22Q3 22Q423Q1差值（净利息收入-生息资产）22Q122Q2 22Q3 22Q423Q122Q122Q2 22Q3 22Q423Q1差值（净利息收入-生息资产）24数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部工行6.2%4.5%3.2%0.4%-4.8%9.0%10.2%11.6%13.2%13.4%-18.2%成都19.4%18.7%16.6%14.5%11.6%17.3%28.7%23.6%20.6%21.8%-10.2%建行8.5%7.2%7.7%6.2%-4.1%9.0%13.2%13.8%15.0%16.5%-20.6%郑州12.5%8.3%8.2%2.6%-4.3%3.9%1.2%5.0%2.5%5.4%-9.8%农行7.7%6.0%4.3%2.1%-3.5%9.3%13.8%16.8%16.9%19.2%-22.8%长沙8.7%7.0%8.9%11.5%15.9%11.8%11.3%10.3%13.9%16.6%-0.7%中行5.3%7.3%8.5%8.4%7.0%6.1%6.4%8.9%9.0%11.8%-4.8%青岛-4.7%1.7%6.1%8.4%14.7%7.8%4.2%7.0%2.5%9.7%5.0%交行10.3%8.4%7.4%5.1%-4.4%10.3%9.5%9.1%11.4%10.6%-15.0%西安-9.8%-9.8%-9.9%-8.1%-1.7%7.5%7.7%9.5%15.9%20.7%-22.3%邮储4.1%3.8%2.3%1.6%1.0%9.2%7.6%8.5%11.7%10.8%-9.8%苏州-1.0%4.0%7.9%10.7%11.1%13.0%15.5%11.1%13.7%14.0%-2.9%大银行6.9%6.0%5.4%3.7%-2.0%8.6%10.6%12.2%13.3%14.5%-16.5%厦门10.5%7.7%7.4%8.1%0.8%19.3%14.7%11.4%13.4%6.8%-6.1%中信-1.2%-0.3%0.6%1.9%-0.9%3.9%5.2%7.5%5.7%7.1%-7.9%重庆-6.6%-4.3%-4.9%-6.8%-5.3%11.6%9.2%9.3%10.0%9.4%-14.6%齐鲁14.3%16.0%12.7%14.6%12.7%19.2%16.7%17.0%16.2%16.2%-3.5%兰州-5.8%-6.5%-8.0%-2.1%4.7%-7.3%7.9%9.0%14.5%-9.7%城商行6.1%5.7%6.1%5.4%4.0%12.3%11.7%10.8%11.7%10.6%-6.7%江阴22.1%20.1%18.2%12.8%2.2%9.6%10.3%14.0%9.6%7.7%-5.4%无锡5.4%2.6%0.9%-0.5%-4.9%9.7%6.6%4.1%5.2%9.4%-14.3%常熟24.0%20.8%18.7%13.8%17.7%18.0%18.4%15.6%18.8%17.6%0.1%苏农5.6%4.5%-0.5%3.4%0.0%14.7%12.7%16.9%12.5%15.9%-15.9%张家港5.7%6.5%5.7%6.1%6.2%15.3%15.1%16.0%14.7%13.1%-7.0%紫金-2.0%-1.9%3.2%1.9%0.1%0.7%0.9%3.6%9.8%10.7%-10.5%22.3%15.1%-7.1%青农商-6.2%-5.2%-4.8%-2.6%0.2%5.7%3.9%2.6%1.8%5.0%-4.8%7.7%5.5%-8.8%渝农商-0.8%-2.4%-5.0%-3.2%-6.1%8.1%5.8%3.7%5.7%6.7%-12.8%10.6%10.0%0.4%瑞丰1.5%5.3%6.7%6.4%-3.2%6.9%11.6%14.4%16.4%27.9%-31.1%6.2%5.6%1.5%沪农商9.1%9.6%8.6%7.1%3.8%10.1%9.8%11.2%14.1%14.8%-11.1%17.7%17.4%-3.8%农商行4.5%3.9%2.7%2.7%0.6%9.1%8.1%8.1%9.7%11.1%-10.5%6.6%5.4%-17.1%合计5.1%4.5%4.2%3.0%-1.8%8.7%9.9%10.6%11.5%12.5%-14.3%253.2.1

因素分析：资产端与负债端共同拉低（利息收入和利息支出分析）上市银行数据来看，一季度利息收入同比+8.6

，而利息支出同比+20.4

，利息支出大幅抬升压制净利息收入一季度大银行利息收入增长最快，但利息支出增幅大幅超过其他类型银行股份行利息收入增长放缓，利息支出增幅相对刚性农商行利息收入增长最慢，但利息支出控制也相对较好各类型上市银行利息收入和利息支出增速情况（累计同比）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1大银行9.2%9.3%10.0%10.1%11.4%12.1%13.6%16.0%18.3%28.3%股份行3.0%3.0%3.1%3.0%3.3%5.4%5.4%5.5%5.4%10.0%城商行8.7%7.6%6.9%6.1%7.0%11.0%9.1%7.5%6.7%9.3%农商行7.1%5.7%4.2%3.7%2.8%9.8%7.5%5.8%4.6%4.8%合计7.4%7.3%7.7%7.6%8.6%9.9%10.5%11.7%12.9%20.4%利息收入（累计）(YoY) 利息支出（累计）(YoY)数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部263.2.1

因素分析：资产端与负债端共同拉低（利息收入和利息支出分析）上市银行利息收入和利息支出增速情况（累计同比）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工行9.5%10.0%10.7%10.2%11.7%14.2%18.1%21.8%24.4%34.9%建行9.2%9.5%10.7%10.6%7.9%10.3%12.6%14.8%16.6%23.8%农行10.2%10.0%10.3%10.0%10.5%13.7%15.4%18.4%20.6%28.6%中行8.1%8.3%9.9%11.8%20.8%11.2%9.5%11.6%15.7%36.8%交行10.3%10.1%10.5%10.7%12.4%10.3%11.4%12.8%14.9%24.9%邮储7.1%6.6%5.6%5.0%3.8%11.7%10.7%10.6%10.1%7.7%大银行9.2%9.3%10.0%10.1%11.4%12.1%13.6%16.0%18.3%28.3%中信1.0%1.4%1.9%2.4%3.0%3.1%2.9%3.2%3.0%6.7%招商9.2%8.6%8.2%8.0%8.2%8.0%8.8%9.2%9.8%19.2%民生-7.7%-6.4%-6.3%-5.3%0.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%2.4%6.0%兴业4.4%5.0%5.3%4.3%2.8%6.2%8.8%9.0%8.3%10.6%浦发1.7%0.6%0.4%-0.4%-0.6%1.0%-0.1%0.6%0.7%9.1%光大4.8%4.7%4.8%5.2%6.0%9.4%7.9%8.1%8.9%13.1%华夏0.2%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.7%8.9%8.1%6.7%5.2%2.8%平安8.2%7.6%7.4%7.2%4.2%9.3%7.2%5.8%6.0%9.0%浙商9.8%10.2%10.9%9.9%8.7%6.1%7.0%8.1%8.1%14.5%股份行3.0%3.0%3.1%3.0%3.3%5.4%5.4%5.5%5.4%10.0%南京5.7%6.6%7.0%7.3%13.2%10.9%12.0%11.9%13.0%19.1%宁波19.6%17.1%16.9%16.2%12.2%27.3%25.8%22.3%17.5%16.3%北京1.1%-0.7%-0.9%-1.5%2.8%1.4%-1.7%-3.1%-2.8%8.0%江苏10.5%10.1%9.2%10.3%10.2%8.1%7.0%6.4%6.8%10.0%贵阳0.7%2.8%2.2%-0.1%2.2%0.6%-3.3%-5.3%-5.4%-2.0%杭州12.4%13.2%13.7%12.9%13.4%21.6%21.0%18.6%16.2%13.3%上海8.7%5.6%3.1%-0.7%-1.4%8.4%5.5%4.1%3.5%6.4%22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1成都20.6%19.9%18.7%17.6%16.5%21.8%21.0%20.8%20.7%21.2%郑州3.4%0.8%0.5%-2.0%-3.2%-4.0%-5.6%-6.1%-6.0%-2.1%长沙9.2%8.1%9.0%9.9%11.7%9.8%9.3%9.1%8.2%7.7%青岛8.3%9.9%9.5%8.9%5.7%19.4%16.3%12.0%9.3%-0.4%西安1.5%-1.3%-1.3%-0.3%9.4%11.2%5.7%5.4%5.6%17.1%苏州10.7%10.1%9.8%10.0%8.3%21.2%15.1%11.3%9.4%6.2%厦门15.2%12.2%10.2%8.1%2.8%18.2%15.1%11.9%8.1%3.9%重庆1.7%2.6%1.5%0.5%0.8%8.0%7.6%6.3%5.8%4.7%齐鲁15.9%15.3%13.4%13.2%11.9%17.2%14.6%13.9%12.0%11.2%兰州13.4%7.5%1.5%1.2%-4.3%24.0%14.8%6.3%2.8%-8.1%城商行8.7%7.6%6.9%6.1%7.0%11.0%9.1%7.5%6.7%9.3%江阴12.0%11.7%11.1%8.6%3.8%3.1%4.1%4.5%4.5%5.4%无锡8.2%5.0%3.2%1.7%0.6%10.5%6.9%5.0%3.6%5.1%常熟23.8%21.2%18.5%15.2%16.6%23.6%21.7%18.2%17.3%15.2%苏农10.2%9.4%6.4%8.8%9.2%16.1%15.2%14.5%14.9%19.7%张家港11.4%11.0%9.8%9.0%9.3%18.0%16.0%14.3%12.2%12.4%紫金0.2%0.4%1.6%1.5%6.1%2.1%2.4%0.3%1.1%11.3%青农商1.7%0.8%-0.3%-0.2%-0.6%9.6%6.7%4.1%2.0%-1.3%渝农商5.0%2.3%-0.4%-0.9%-4.4%11.5%7.4%4.4%1.3%-2.7%瑞丰3.4%5.7%6.9%7.6%7.3%5.4%6.2%7.0%8.8%18.0%沪农商7.5%6.8%6.3%5.8%5.6%6.1%4.5%4.3%4.6%7.1%农商行7.1%5.7%4.2%3.7%2.8%9.8%7.5%5.8%4.6%4.8%合计7.4%7.3%7.7%7.6%8.6%9.9%10.5%11.7%12.9%20.4%利息收入（累计）(YoY) 利息支出（累计）(YoY) 利息收入（累计）(YoY) 利息支出（累计）(YoY)数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部273.2.2

因素分析：资产端与负债端共同拉低（收益率与付息率分析）期初期末平均法测算各类型银行生息资产收益率和计息负债成本率情况22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1大银行3.54%3.53%3.59%3.57%3.46%1.72%1.74%1.80%1.83%1.93%股份行4.20%4.18%4.21%4.18%4.05%2.14%2.16%2.18%2.17%2.18%城商行4.33%4.30%4.34%4.28%4.17%2.36%2.36%2.37%2.33%2.28%农商行4.20%4.18%4.20%4.11%3.91%2.22%2.21%2.22%2.19%2.12%合计3.78%3.76%3.81%3.78%3.66%1.89%1.91%1.96%1.97%2.03%生息资产收益率（累计） 计息负债成本率（累计）数据来源：Wind，中信证券研究部资产端：2023年一季度生息资产收益率为3.66

，较上年全年走低12bps，主要受年初重定价和市场定价低位运行影响负债端：2023年一季度计息负债成本率为2.03

，较上年全年抬升6bps，一方面居民风险偏好降低存在惯性，投资延续向定期储蓄转化；另一方面企业资金活化不足，企业结算资金等低成本的对公活期存款增长受限283.2.2

因素分析：资产端与负债端共同拉低（收益率与付息率分析）期初期末平均法测算各家银行生息资产收益率和计息负债成本率情况22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工行3.50%3.48%3.56%3.54%3.45%1.62%1.66%1.75%1.80%1.93%建行3.68%3.62%3.72%3.69%3.43%1.74%1.75%1.82%1.84%1.85%农行3.61%3.58%3.60%3.56%3.38%1.73%1.75%1.81%1.82%1.86%中行3.20%3.22%3.29%3.32%3.50%1.61%1.62%1.67%1.72%2.02%交行3.58%3.61%3.67%3.66%3.62%2.35%2.38%2.45%2.48%2.65%邮储3.83%3.84%3.85%3.77%3.57%1.60%1.63%1.64%1.62%1.54%大银行3.54%3.53%3.59%3.57%3.46%1.72%1.74%1.80%1.83%1.93%中信4.10%4.10%4.09%4.09%3.97%2.16%2.18%2.18%2.17%2.17%招商3.91%3.85%3.91%3.84%3.82%1.56%1.57%1.61%1.59%1.67%民生4.03%4.04%4.08%4.05%3.87%2.42%2.43%2.48%2.47%2.43%兴业4.27%4.23%4.25%4.21%4.00%2.23%2.27%2.31%2.29%2.25%浦发4.01%3.97%3.99%3.92%3.80%2.20%2.19%2.23%2.20%2.26%光大4.28%4.30%4.35%4.35%4.23%2.24%2.24%2.28%2.32%2.37%华夏4.38%4.38%4.38%4.35%4.22%2.29%2.28%2.27%2.25%2.22%平安4.96%4.95%4.98%4.95%4.80%2.19%2.19%2.19%2.17%2.23%浙商4.62%4.63%4.72%4.67%4.47%2.40%2.43%2.48%2.45%2.40%股份行4.20%4.18%4.21%4.18%4.05%2.14%2.16%2.18%2.17%2.18%南京4.45%4.44%4.51%4.45%4.51%1.43%1.46%1.49%1.47%1.52%宁波4.42%4.31%4.41%4.37%4.19%2.32%2.43%2.43%2.37%2.34%北京3.95%3.88%3.93%3.81%3.8