财务预测之回归分析法

一、选择历史数据所属会计期间,,,,,,,,,,

项目,1月,2月,3月,4月,5月,6月,7月,8月,9月,10月

销售收入,2850,3000,3150,3300,3450,3600,3750,3900,4050,4200

货币资金,50,56,57,60,62,70,78,80,85,95

短期投资,6,7,12,13,18,22,23,25,35,36

应收票据,8,12,24,30,40,44,58,66,78,82

应收股利,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2

应收利息,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1

应收账款,398,418,440,460,488,500,528,560,580,600

其他应收款,12,14,16,22,25,28,31,33,37,40

预付账款,22,23,27,30,33,38,41,45,50,55

应收补贴款,3,3.3,4,4.5,7.8,8.5,9,11,13,15

存货,120.2,121.3,126.5,129.4,130.8,133.8,136.5,141.3,144.4,150

待摊费用,32,32.5,35.8,36,36.6,37,38.8,40,42,45

一年内到期的长期债权投资,42,49,55,59,66,71,76.4,81.8,86.6,91.9

其他流动资产,3,4.8,6.9,8,13,13.8,14.8,16.8,20,23

长期投资合计,30,33,35,37,40,41,43.8,44,49,50

固定资产合计,1256,1279,1300,1333,1355,1380,1401,1428,1450,1480

无形资产及其他资产合计,9,10.8,11.2,12.8,13.6,14.4,15.5,16.3,17.9,19

递延税款借项,5,6,8,3,3,2,2,3,3,2

短期借款,60,62,66,68,50,0,40,48,50,30

应付票据,5,5,6,3,5,5,3,5,2,0

应付账款,100,110,122,133,144,155,169,172,190,205

预收账款,10,12.3,14.1,17.2,19.5,22.5,25.5,28.5,30,35

应付工资,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2

应付福利费,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12

应付股利,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

应交税金,5,8,12,13,13.8,15,15.5,16,16.8,18

其他应交款,1,1.2,1.3,1.44,1.5,1.55,1.75,1.9,2.3,2.5

其他应付款,2,1,2,0,1,0,3,4,1,2

预提费用,9,10.5,12.2,14.8,16.7,19.8,22,23.8,24.9,28.6

预计负债,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

一年内到期的长期负债,50,48,50,60,30,20,10,30,40,60

其他流动负债,2,2.8,3.2,4.8,5.5,7.9,8.6,12.4,15.5,20

长期负债合计,760,768.9,790,819.5,835.6,855.5,890,910,925,938.8

递延税款贷项,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

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二、各项目与销售收入散点图,,,,,,,,,,

销售收入,2850,3000,3150,3300,3450,3600,3750,3900,4050,4200

应收账款,398,418,440,460,488,500,528,560,580,600

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"三、计算相关系数,拟合回归方程",,,,,,,,,,

项目,与销售收入的相关系数,回归方程,,,,,与销售收入是否相关,预测值(销售收入=5000),,

货币资金,0.9815775,=-42.503+0.031717*销售收入,,,,,,116.08,,

短期投资,0.9834896,=-60.7697+0.022828*销售收入,,,,,,53.37,,

应收票据,0.9960034,=-158.897+0.057616*销售收入,,,,,,129.18,,

应收股利,0.0000000,0,,,,,,2.00,,

应收利息,0.0000000,1,,,,,,1.00,,

应收账款,0.9982163,=-39.4545+0.152242*销售收入,,,,,,721.76,,

其他应收款,0.9959995,=-49.4+0.021333*销售收入,,,,,,57.27,,

预付账款,0.9939336,=-51.0485+0.024808*销售收入,,,,,,72.99,,

应收补贴款,0.9810056,=-24.1497+0.009095*销售收入,,,,,,21.33,,

存货,0.9916395,=58.1915+0.021341*销售收入,,,,,,164.90,,

待摊费用,0.9722861,=7.1909+0.008618*销售收入,,,,,,50.28,,

一年内到期的长期债权投资,0.9991264,=-60.8103+0.036505*销售收入,,,,,,121.71,,

其他流动资产,0.9912358,=-10.7461+0.007034*销售收入,,,,,,24.42,,

长期投资合计,0.9931199,=-10.765+0.0145*销售收入,,,,,,25.00,,

固定资产合计,0.9994212,=784.8242+0.164929*销售收入,,,,,,"1,609.47",,

无形资产及其他资产合计,0.9961355,=-10.7461+0.007034*销售收入,,,,,,24.42,,

递延税款借项,-0.7054726,=14.667-0.0031*销售收入,,,,,,-,,

短期借款,-0.5188644,=129.72-0.0234*销售收入,,,,,,80.00,,

应付票据,-0.7031082,=14.012-0.0029*销售收入,,,,,,10.00,,

应付账款,0.9971020,=-116.903+0.075717*销售收入,,,,,,261.68,,

预收账款,0.9965317,=-42.46+0.018133*销售收入,,,,,,48.21,,

应付工资,0.0000000,2,,,,,,5.00,,

应付福利费,0.0000000,12,,,,,,15.00,,

应付股利,0.0000000,0,,,,,,1.00,,

应交税金,0.9368515,=-16.2145+0.008376*销售收入,,,,,,25.67,,

其他应交款,0.9701787,=-1.94224+0.001017*销售收入,,,,,,3.14,,

其他应付款,0.2611165,=-0.9636+0.0007*销售收入,,,,,,5.00,,

预提费用,0.9966641,=-33.0285+0.014541*销售收入,,,,,,39.68,,

预计负债,0.0000000,0,,,,,,3.00,,

一年内到期的长期负债,-0.2457120,=71.988-0.0091*销售收入,,,,,,25.00,,

其他流动负债,0.9534043,=-35.9812+0.012554*销售收入,,,,,,26.79,,

长期负债合计,0.9957962,=346.1024+0.14276*销售收入,,,,,,"1,059.90",,

递