Allianz+2022全球贸易调查

AllianzTrade

AllianzTrade

GlobalSurvey

Troubledtrade:

Howwillexportersadaptin2022?

AllianzTradeisthetrademarkusedtodesignatearangeofservicesprovidedbyEulerHermes.

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ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

AboutAllianzTrade

Wepredicttradeandcreditrisk

today,socompaniescanhave

confidenceintomorrow.

AllianzTradeisthegloballeaderintradecreditinsuranceandarecognizedspecialistintheareasofsurety,collections,structuredtradecreditandpoliticalrisk.

Ourproprietaryintelligencenetworkanalysesdailychangesin+80millioncorporatessolvency.Wegivecompaniestheconfidencetotradebysecuringtheirpayments.Wecompensateyourcompanyintheeventofabaddebt,butmoreimportantly,wehelpyouavoidbaddebtinthefirstplace.Wheneverweprovidetradecreditinsuranceorotherfinancesolutions,ourpriorityispredictiveprotection.But,whentheunexpectedarrives,ourAAcreditratingmeanswehavetheresources,backedbyAllianz,toprovidecompensationtomaintainyourbusiness.

HeadquarteredinParis,AllianzTradeispresentin52

countrieswith5,500employees.In2021,ourinsured

globalbusinesstransactionsrepresented€931billion

inexposure.

Formoreinformation,pleasevisit

AllianzTradeisthetrademarkusedtodesignatearangeofservicesprovidedbyEulerHermes.

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PAGE5

Afast-changinggloballandscape:Opportunitiesandrisks

PAGE11

Whatinternationalmodelarefirmstofacethischangingenvironment?

adopting

PAGE16

Aredigitalization&ESGreshapingthewaybusinessestradeglobally?

PAGE21

Statesupport:whatdocorporatesreallyexpectfromgovernments?

PAGE25

Methodology

ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

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Top3trendsfromtheAllianzTradeGlobalSurvey

Inthiswhitepaper,youwilldiscovertheresultsofourAllianzTradeGlobalSurvey2022,enrichedwithinsightsfromeightglobaltradeexperts:

NgoziOkonjo-Iweala,JeanPisani-Ferry,AilishCampbell,ElizabethDucottet,ChristopheLecourtier,SandyKemper,ChristianGreisbergerandKelvinTan.

PAGE26

Specialthanks

PAGE27

Contacts

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ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

Top3trendsfromthe

AllianzTradeGlobalSurvey

Howisthecurrentinternationalenvironmentaffectingexportersandtheirwillingnesstotrade?InourAllianzTradeGlobalSurvey2022,wedecidedtocheckthepulseofcompaniesintheUnitedStates,China,theUnitedKingdom,France,ItalyandGermany.Twosurveyswerecarriedout–onebeforethestartoftheinvasionofUkraineandoneafter,involvingnearly3,000corporates.

AnaBoata

HeadofEconomicResearch,Allianz

Trade

Aftertheoptimismoftheglobal“grandreopening”in2021,oursurveyshowsthat2022couldbemuchmoreofarockyroadforexporters.BothbusinessandconsumerconfidencehavetakenahitfromthewarinUkraine,andhighercommoditypricesandextendedsupply-chaindisruptionswillrampupthecostofexportingformonthstocome.

Whenwelookattheoverallresultsofoursurvey,threetrendsstandout:

1.

2.

Morebusinessesarebracingforahittoturnoversin2022.Inthefirstroundofoursurvey,just6%ofcompanieswereworriedaboutturnoverdroppingin2022;now,thesharehasrisento22%,mostlyinthechemicals,energy&utilitiesandmachinery&equipmentsectors.Tocopewiththeongoingslowdownindemand,companiesareplanningtodiversifyexportmarketsandincreaseinvestmentsinnewmarkets,provingthatexportambitionsremainresilient.Butthelongertheconflictlasts,thegreatertheriskoftheslowdownescalatingintoafull-fledgeddemandshock,whichcouldpushglobaltradeintoasevererecession.

ThelegacyoftheCovid-19era,statesupportisstillviewedastheultimatelifelineincrisistimes.Highenergyprices,geopoliticaltensions,increasedtransportationbottlenecks,sanctionsagainstRussiaandinputshortagesrankamongthetopconcernsforcompanies.Withtheadditionalpressureofrisingfinancingcostsandcurrencyrisks,aroundhalfofthecompanieswesurveyedbelievefinancingsupportviastate-guaranteedloansanddirectsubsidieswouldprotecttheirbusinessesfromthefalloutofthewar.However,intheabsenceofmuchmoresevereeconomicshock,weareunlikelytoseethereturnofextensive“whateverittakes”policysupportasseenduringtheCovid-19crisis.

3.

Non-paymentriskisback.Morethan40%ofEuropeanexportersexpectpaymenttermstoincreasefollowingtheinvasionofUkraineandmorethanhalfexpectariseinnon-paymentriskinthenextsixto12months,comparedtolessthanonethirdbeforethewar.Thisconfirmsthenormalizationinbusinessinsolvenciesthathadalreadybegunbeforethewar,albeitstillatamoderatepace.ForthemainEuropeanexportmarkets,weexpectinsolvenciestorisebymorethan+10%in2022.

56%

ofrespondentsareincreasinglyworriedabouthighenergyprices

42%

ofrespondents expecthigherfundingcoststobeachallengein2022

51%

ofrespondentsexpect

non-paymentriskinthenext

6to12monthstoincrease

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ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

Afast-changinggloballandscape:

Opportunitiesandrisks

2021wasablockbusteryearforexports

Lastyearwasanexceptionaloneforexporters:Overall,sevencompaniesoutof10declaretheyrecordedhigher-than-expectedexportperformancein2021.TheUSandGermanyperformedparticularlywell,with75%and76%ofcorporatessayingtheywitnessedhigher-than-expectedexports,respectively.Buttheydidhavetoadapttoanewnormalintradeinacontextoflingeringlockdownsandtransportbottlenecks.IntheUS,wherecompanies

weremostdisruptedbysupplyshocks,thisentailedincreasinginventories(48%),findingnewsuppliers(45%)andtargetingnewexportmarkets(43%)toboostgrowth.OverathirdofexportersinFrance,ItalyandtheUKsaytheyalsoreliedonfindingnewsupplierstocopewithsupply-chaindisruptions,while39%ofGermanexporterssaytheyfocusedonnewexportmarkets,mostlythoseclosetohomesuchasFranceandSpain.

AsCovid-19restrictionspushedevenmoreoftheworldonline,digitalizationbecamevitalforcompanies’exportstrategies:60%ofcompaniesinChina,48%inItalyand38%inGermanysaytheyfocusedondigitalizationin2021.Diversifyingchannelsofdistributionwasalsoapriority,especiallyforexportersinChina(56%),France(38%)andtheUK(35%).

Will2022bringevenmoreexportopportunities?BeforetheinvasionofUkraine,companiesinItalyandFrancecertainlyseemedoptimistic,with97%expectinganincrease(comparedwith93%inGermany).Unsurprisingly,thewarrattledtheseexpectations:Now,29%ofItalianfirms,23%ofthoseinFranceand16%ofthoseinGermanyareexpectingexportstodeclinein2022.IntheUK,companiesarefacingboth

thecostofBrexitandthemilitaryescalationinUkraine:Evenbeforethewar,11%ofUKcompaniessaidtheyexpectedexportstodecreasein2022,andthisshareroseto19%inthesecondroundofoursurvey.

Acrosssectors,aroundonethirdofrespondentsinthechemicals,energy&utilities,machinery&equipmentandmanufacturingsectorsnowexpectexportstodeclinein2022.Thiscompareswiththeoveralllevelof5%beforethewar.

Mostexportersareplanningtoexpandtheirbusinesstonewmarketsin2022,especiallythoseinChina(92%)andtheUS(84%),andthoseintheoilandgas,automotive,logistics,IT&telecomandconstructionsectors.Incontrast,morecompaniesintheUKandGermanylisttheirdomesticmarketsastheirtop3sourcesofrevenuesin2022.

Lookingattheexportstrategyfor2022,wefindthatChinese,ItalianandFrenchexportersarethemostdiversified,withmorethan5%oftotalexportrevenuescomingfrommorethansixmarkets,againstthreeinUS,UKandGermany.Butforallthisdiversification,thereisonemarketthatremainsthetopdestinationforexportersintheUK,Germany,ItalyandChina:theUS,whileitissecondforFrance,justafterChina.

-16pp

AftertheinvasionofUkraine,theshareofrespondentsexpectinganincreaseintheirexportturnoverdroppedfrom94%to78%

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ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

Exportmarketsmosttargetedin2021and2022

Topexportmarketbycountryin2021

–UnitedStates:UK(23%)

–UnitedKingdom:US(28%)

–France:US&Germany(17%)

–Germany:US(18%)

–Italy:US&UK(22%)

–China:US(22%)

Top3newexportmarketstargetedbycountryin2022

UnitedStates:France(10%),UK(9%),Canada(8%)

United-Kingdom:Spain(8%),Germany(7%),France(6%)

France:China,US&Germany(allat7%)

Germany:France(7%),US&Japan(5%)

Italy:France&Germany(9%),UK&Japan(7%)

China:Japan(7%),France,Germany&Canada(allat6%)

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ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

Energypriceswillsetthetonefor2022

The“grandreopening”oftheglobaleconomyin2021wasarollercoasterrideforcompaniesasglobalsupply-chaindisruptionssenttransportationcostsandenergypricessurgingtorecordhighs.Indeed,thecompanieswesurveyedsaidthatthetopfiverisksthataffectedexportgrowthin2021wereuncertaintyaboutdemandduetoCovid-19(40%),highenergyprices(35%),laborshortagesandcosts(35%),transportationcosts(33%)andinputshortages(30%).

Higherenergypriceswereasignificanthurdleforexportersinthechemicalsector(55%),followedbyutilities(48%),householdequipment(44%),construction(43%)andmachinery&equipment(38%).AndItalianexporterssufferedthemost:MorethanhalfoftheItaliancompanieswesurveyedsaidthattheyhadbeenstronglyimpactedbyhighenergyprices,followedbyUKandUSexporters.Incontrast,Chinesecompanieswerefarlessaffected,withlessthanathirdsayingtheyhadbeenstronglyimpactedbyhighenergyprices.

Laborshortagesposedaproblemmainlyintheutilities(34%),oilandgas(33%),construction(31%),IT&telecom(31%)andservices(30%)sectors,andparticularlyforUScompanies:78%ofUSexporterssaidtheyfacedasignificantormoderateimpactoflaborshortagesandrelatedcosts.ButthesharewassizableinFrance(72%),theUK(65%)andGermany(65%),too.

Will2022bringsomerespite?Companiesarenotentirelyconvinced.Manyarestillworriedaboutenergyprices,transportationcosts,andlaborandinputshortagesintheyearahead.Energypricesarebyfarthetopconcern,with72%ofcompaniessayingtheyexpectthemtoremainachallengein2022.Infact,overathirdofthecompanieswesurveyedalreadyexpectedenergypricestobecomemoreofachallengein2022evenbeforetheinvasionofUkraineinFebruary2022.Theshareofexportersexpectingenergypricestobecomemoreofachallengein2022ishighestinItaly(46%),followedbytheUS(38%)andFrance(37%).Incomparison,only27%ofcompaniesinChinaareworried.Lookingatsectors,companiesinconstruction(46%),utilities(43%),chemicals(43%)andmachinery&equipment(42%)arethemostconcerned.

SincetheinvasionofUkraine,highenergypriceshavebecomeevenmoreofaconcernforEuropeanexporters.TheshareofEuropeancorporatesthatexpecthighenergypricestobecomemoreofachallengehasincreasedfrom37%to56%,withmostworriedincountrieswiththehighestdependencyonimportsofgas:Italy(66%comparedto46%pre-war),theUK(62%comparedto47%pre-war)andGermany(52%against34%pre-war).ThefactthatFrancehasthelowestshareofcompaniesconcernedbyhighenergyprices(46%vs.37%pre-war)likelyreflectstheimplementationofthegovernment’s“ResiliencePlan”thattakesintoaccountthecostoftheenergybillformostcorporates.Lookingatsectors,amajorityofcorporatesinchemicals,energy&utilities,householdequipment,ITC,machinery&equipment,oil&gasandretailseehighenergypricesasanincreasingchallengefor2022.

Sincethebeginningofthewar,concernsabouttransportationbottlenecks(costanddeliverytimes)havealsoincreased,withabout49%ofEuropeancorporatesexpectingmorechallengesin2022,withtheUK(56%),Germany(53%)andItaly(52%)beingmostconcerned,comparedto34%inFrance.Incomparison,beforethewar,only22%ofEuropeanrespondents

wereconcernedabouthighertransportationtimesand27%wereconcernedabouthighertransportationcostsin2022.

ThesamegoesforshortagesorthehighcostofinputsforwhichtheshareofEuropeancorporatesexpectingadeteriorationhasincreasedfrom20%to46%.Corporatesinhouseholdequipment,oil&gas,machinery&equipment,chemicalsandITCarethemostworried.Italyhadthehighestshareofcompaniesworriedaboutworseningshortagesorthehighcostofinputs(51%ofcorporates,comparedto24%pre-war),followedbytheUKandGermany(47%comparedto32%and25%,respectively)andFrance(38%,comparedto26%pre-war).

Whileonly23%ofexporterssaygeopoliticaltensionshadasignificantimpactontheir2021performance,32%ofthemwerealreadycitingthemasagrowingconcernin2022evenbeforethewarinUkraine,especiallyintheUS,ItalyandChina.Sincethebeginningofthewar,this

ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

sharehasincreasedto50%inEurope,withtheUK(60%against38%pre-war)andItaly(58%against37%pre-war)themostworried.

Overall,theglobalcontextin2022isexpectedtoremainmarkedbythewarinUkraineanditsfallout:higherenergyprices,therisein(geo)politicalriskandpotentialtransportationbottlenecks.Exportersarelikelytofacelowerdemandprospectsalongwithgrowingrisks,whichwillimpacttheirturnovergrowthaswellastheirprofitability.

Top3concernsthatEuropeanexportersexpecttobecomemoreofachallengein2022

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

56%

50%

49%

37%

28%

27%

HighenergypricesGeopoliticsTransportationbottlenecks

BeforetheinvasionAftertheinvasion

Source:AllianzResearch

InternationalB2Bpayments:Longerandlonger,riskierandriskier

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Exportsareaprovenwaytodevelopbusinessbuttheyalsocomewithrisks,especiallywhenclosingtransactionswithnewpartnersinremotelocations:paymentdelays,dealingwithdifferentlegalframeworks,amongothers.Oursurveyshowsthatforamajorityoffirms,andupto65%inChina,66%inFranceand56%inGermany,non-paymentissueshada“moderate”or“significant”impactontheirexportsoverthepast12months.

Despitethestrongeconomicreboundin2021,cashhoardinginmanycorporates1andasolidrecoveryinglobaltrade,50%ofourrespondentsdeclarethatpaymenttimesgotlongerin2021.ThesharewashighestinFrance,where62%offirmsfacedlongerpaymenttimes,followedbyChinaandtheUS.(48%).Interestingly,amongfirmsthathaveundertakendigitalization–whichwewouldexpecttosmoothentransactions–58%ofrespondentsstillreportedlongerpaymenttimes.

However,thisisnotdissuadingcompaniesfromlookingfornewexportopportunities:55%offirmsthatrecordedlongerpaymenttimesalsosaythattheyplantoexporttonewmarketsin2022.And65%ofthemdeclarethattheywillseekmoreinvestmentsfortheircompanies’internationaldevelopmentin2022.

Fromasectorperspective,astransportationandenergycostshavebeenrisingsignificantly,itisnosurprisethat57%oflogisticsfirmsand67%ofoil&gascompaniesreportincreasedpaymenttimes.Incomparison,only36%of

1SeeourreportEuropeancorporates:Cash-richsectorsgetricher.

non-automanufacturingfirmsfacedthesame–thoughthiscouldalsobelinkedtoup-frontpaymentpoliciesinthesector.Morethanhalfofsmallerfirms(with20-99employees)alsoreportlongerpaymenttimes,alongside48%oflargecorporates(+1,000employees).

TheongoingwarinUkraineisalsoshiftingexpectationsanddrivingdownexporters’confidence.Followingtheinvasionandtheconsequentimpactontheglobaleconomy,morethanhalfofrespondentsnowexpectnon-paymentrisktoincreaseinthenextsixtotwelvemonths,comparedwithlessthan30%inFebruary2022.Similarly,over40%ofexportersnowexpectpaymenttermstolengthenafterthewarbrokeout,comparedto31%before.

Shareofrespondentsexpectingtheriskofnon-paymenttoincreaseinthenextsixtotwelvemonths

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

27%

51%

30%

58%

27%

53%

26%

49%

23%

43%

TotalGermanyUKFranceItaly

BeforetheinvasionAftertheinvasion

Source:AllianzResearch

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ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

Insight

Globaltrade:Caughtbetweenarockandahardplace?

LudovicSubran

Chiefeconomist,

Allianz

AftertheinvasionofUkraine,globaltradeisfacingadoublewhammy:aconfidenceshockthatcouldcostclosetohalfatrilliondollarsindemand,aswellasalreadyhighpricepressuressurgingevenhigher.

That’swhywenowexpecttradetogrowby+4.0%involumetermsin2022,-2pplowerthanwhatwasexpectedbeforethewar.Ontheotherhand,higheroilpricesandastrongerdollarwilldriveupthecostoftrade.Infact,since2020,Brentandcontainerfreightpriceshavestartedtomoveinsync,whichmeansfreightratescouldreacharecord-highpeakofUSD14,000/FEU.Asaresult,wehaverevisedupwardsourforecastforglobaltradepricegrowthbyawhopping+5.7pptocloseto+11%in2022.

Toaddtothis,itishardtoholdouthopeforanormalizationofsupplychainsthisyear.WithmajorcontainerlinesreroutingshipstolessdirectandmoreexpensiveroutestoavoidtheBlackSea,congestionislikelytoriseatotherEuropeanports.Andairfreightiscomplicatedbytheclosureofcriticalairspace.

Ontheothersideoftheglobe,renewedCovid-19outbreaksinChinaareanothercauseforconcern:Withportsseeingdrasticallyreducedactivity,orevenatriskofbeingclosedtocomplywiththezero-Covidstrategy,deliverytimeswillremainextendedthrough2022.Altogether,thiswillpushbackthenormalizationofglobalsupplychainswellinto2023.

Inthiscontext,itisnosurprisethathighenergyprices,geopoliticaltensionsandincreasedtransportationbottlenecksarethetopconcernsforEuropeanexporters.AsIwritethis,therisksofadouble-dipinglobaltradehaveconsiderablyincreased,andoursurveyconfirmsthatpessimismhasincreasedsincethestartofthewar.

Butcompaniescanandwilladapttheirexportstrategiestothisnewnormal,justliketheydidin2021,theyearsupply-chaindisruptionssentthegloballogisticsnetworkintocrisismode.ItisaverygoodsignthatmorethanhalfofthoseintheUK,Germany,FranceandItalyaretargetingnewexportmarketsin2022,aswellaslooking

fornewsuppliersandnewtransportationserviceproviders.Anothersilverlining:intensifiedgeopoliticaltensionsareunlikelytorollbackglobalization:Over40%ofexportersareplanningtoseekoutmoreinvestmentforinternationaldevelopmentthanplannedbeforethewar.

Atthesametime,anddespitetheircomfortablecashbuffers,companiesareflaggingfinancingasarisktowatchin2022.Therecord-highinflationratesweareseeingaroundtheworld,fueledbythefalloutfromthewarinUkraine,havealreadykickedoffmonetarypolicytighteninginseveraladvancedeconomies.Weexpectthistrendtointensifythrough2022and2023,whichexplainswhyover40%ofEuropeancorporatesexpectmorefundingchallengesthisyear,andwhymorethanhalfexpectanincreaseinnon-paymentriskinthenextsixto12months.Beforethewarbrokeout,only30%feltthesame.

Inthiscontext,whatmattersishowlongtheconflictlasts.Thelongeritcontinues,thehighertheriskofafull-fledgeddemandshockthatcouldpushglobaltradeintoarecession.Thingscouldgetworsebeforetheygetbetter!

Companiescanandwilladapttheirexportstrategiestothisnewnormal,justliketheydidin2021,theyearsupply-chaindisruptionssentthegloballogisticsnetworkintocrisismode.ItisaverygoodsignthatmorethanhalfofthoseintheUK,Germany,FranceandItalyaretargetingnewexportmarketsin2022,aswellaslookingfornewsuppliersandnewtransportationserviceproviders.

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ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

Insight

Externalgrowth,localset-upsandadaptationare

keytoexpandyourinternationalbusiness

ElizabethDucottet

CEOofThuasne

HowhasThuasnesucceededinternationally?

Externalgrowthisgoodfordevelopingyourinternationalnetwork:byacquiringcompaniesorfactoriesabroad,youcanestablishyourselfmoreeasilyinnewmarketsusingexistinginfrastructures.Forexample,asearlyas1989,wetappedintomarketopportunitiesinEasternEuropewiththefalloftheBerlinWalltolaunchsubsidiariesinGermany,HungaryandSlovakia.

Wealsofocusonhavinglocalset-ups.Ourbusinessmodelisveryintegrated:weself-managealargepartofourvaluechain,fromdesigntosale.Weproducelocallyandhavelocalsalesteamssothatwedonotneedtorelyonexistingdistributors.Thisallowsustocontrolourtransportcostsandoptimizeoursalescycles.

Finally,adaptingtolocalmarketsisessential.Forinstance,whenyousetupinRomania,youmustobservehowthingsoperatelocally,howpeoplework,theproductionprocessesandthenadoptthem.Youshouldalsoresearchlocalsuppliersandadaptyourpricingtothatmarket.

DidyouadoptthesameapproachfortheAmericanmarket?

SettingupintheUnitedStatesisverycomplicatedforaFrenchSME.IoftensaidthatyouhavetobeAmericantosucceedinAmerica,otherwiseindustryactorssuchasregulators,suppliersandcustomersdon’trecognizeyou.Togetintothismarket,youabsolutelyhavetobuyapieceofittobenefitfromhavinglocalcontacts.

Youalsoneedtoconsiderthespecificitiesoftheirconsumers.Inourcase,privatehealthcareisrootedintheAmericanmarket,contrarytofreehealthcareinEurope.WehadtoadaptoursalescyclesasAmericandoctors(ourtargetclients)aremuchlessneutralwhenchoosingwhichpatientmedicationstoprescribethanEuropeandoctors.

Whatchallengesdoyoucurrentlyface,and

howdoyouintendtoovercomethem?

Thepriceandaccesstorawmaterialsisarealissue.Inaspecificsectorlikeours,thismakesitmoredifficulttoadapt,becauseweneedinputsthatarenoteasilyreplaceableandourpricingisregulated.Profitabilitybecomesanissueandwemustfindwaystopreserveit,forexamplebyoptimizingourmodelandproductionpace.

Transportcostsisanothertensionasthey

havemultipliedbyfivesince2020.Facedwith

this,Ideeplybelieveinthecontinentalization

ofindustries.AtThuasne,wealreadyfavor

shortsupplychains,andIamconvincedthat

thisstrategywillbesoondemocratized.The

reindustrializationofEuropeandtheUnited

Stateswillbegin,ifithasnotalreadystarted.

TheprimaryuncertaintyrelatestoenergyandgassupplyfromRussia.Fordecades,we’vebeenspoiledwithabundantaccesstoenergyatrelativelylowprices.Today,wemustaskourselveshowtomoderateourenergyuse.Wehavetodigdeeperintotheissue,identifythewastagewithinourprocessesandlimitconsumptionwherepossible.WhenIseefactories,includingours,withtheirlightsonallnightdespitenotrunning,Itellmyselfthattherearecertainlyareasofimprovementintermsofenergywaste.

IoftensaidthatyouhavetobeAmericantosucceedinAmerica,otherwiseindustryactorssuchasregulators,suppliersandcustomersdon’trecognizeyou.Togetintothismarket,youabsolutelyhavetobuyapieceofittobenefitfromhavinglocalcontacts.

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ALLIANZTRADEGLOBALSURVEY

Whatinternationalmodelarefirmstofacethischangingenvironment?

adopting

Investmentin2022:Expandingtonewmarketstoreducetheimpactofthewar

Foralltheconcernsaboutthebeginningoftheendofglobalization,theCovid-19crisisdidnotsparkawaveofreshoringin2021.Butmostcompaniesinoursurveystillprefertoproduceonhomeground,rangingfrom74%intheUKto89%inChina.Thistrendisespeciallyvisibleinthemachinery&equipment,oil&gas,retailandlogisticssectors,withcompaniescitingbrandimageandquality,thequalityofthelaborforceandtheeconomicattractivenessoftheirhomecountryasthetopthreereasonsbehindthechoice.

Incontrast,wefindthattheenergy&utilities,agrifood,chemicals,IT&telecomandconstructionsectorsarethemostintegratedinglobalsupplychains,withahigherdependenceoninputsfromabroad.Forcompaniesinthesesectors,thelowercostsoftransportation,theeconomicattractivenessofthecountryofproductionandgeographicalproximitytosuppliersexplainthechoicetoexportfromaninternationallocation.Interestingly,ESGonlycomesfifthafterqualityoflabor.

Forthe24%ofFrenchcompaniesand23%ofUKcompaniesthatdoproducefromanoffshorelocation,themostcommonlycitedreasonsaregeographicalproximitytosuppliers,followedbyeconomicattractivenessofthecountryofproductionandlowertransportationcosts.

CompaniesinChinaandtheUShavethemostambitiousinvestmentplansfor2022,with78%and61%,respectively,planningtoinvestmorethisyearcomparedtolastyear.Unsurprisingly,thesectorsthatsawhigher-than-expectedexportperformancesin2021,andwhichhavethebestdemandprospectsfor2022,areatthetopofthislist,notablyhouseholdequipment,oilandgas,retail,logis