生活与风格的巴菲特方法论

Life&StylesofWarrenBuffetTaroAokiJenniferLiuNiravModyFezQamarRyanVaughn第一页，共四十页。AgendaBackgroundQualitativeAnalysisQuantitativeAnalysisMcDonald’sAnalysisConclusion第二页，共四十页。AnExceptionalChildSold6-packsofCokeforaprofitBoughthisfirstsharesatageelevenGraduatedfromcollegein3yearswhileworkingfulltimeOnlystudentatColumbiatoreceiveanA+inoneofBenjaminGraham’sclasses第三页，共四十页。AGreatBusinessmanThesecondrichestmanintheworldwith$20billionTurned$105,000into$300,000inoneyearandreturned1,156%onthesameportfolioafter10yearsDirectorofBerkshireHathawaywhichhashadstockhighsof$80,000第四页，共四十页。AGreatBusinessman(cont.)WasnamedCEOofSalomonBrothersinonedaytosolvebonddebaclePersonalinvestmentmovesaremimickedbythemarket第五页，共四十页。TenetsoftheOracleofOmahaMarginalgainsareastupidreasontoholdstock“Lethargy,borderingonsloth,shouldremainthecornerstoneofaninvestmentstyle”“Neverinvestinabusinessyoucannotunderstand”第六页，共四十页。InvestingisBusiness-LikeDoesnotbelieveintheEfficientMarketsHypothesisBelievesdiversificationisforidiotsDoesnotcareaboutmarketfluctuationsThinksinvestingisonlycorrectwhenitisbusiness-like第七页，共四十页。QualitativeAnalysis第八页，共四十页。InvestingFromaBusinessPerspectiveLookattheeconomicownershipofbusinessesthecommonstockrepresentsNotahorseracewithnumbersfoundeverymorningontheWallStreetJournal第九页，共四十页。WarrenLooksat…TheannualEPSfigureItspredictabilityThemarketprice第十页，共四十页。WallStreetLooksat…TheyworkforacommissionInterestedinsellingthepriciestsecuritytheycanfindDonotcareaboutthepriceatwhichtheysellyouthestock,soNObargains第十一页，共四十页。EarningsGivebackinformofdividends(-)Subjecttocapitalgainstax(-)CannotreinvestaswellRetainEarnings(+)Canreinvestbetter(+)Increasesvalueofstockprice第十二页，共四十页。TheCompoundingRateofReturnWarren’srealtrickistogetahighannualcompoundingrateofreturn5%10%15%20%10yrs

$162,889$259,374$404,555$619,17320yrs

$265,329$672,749$1,636,653$3,833,75930yrs

$432,194$1,744,940$6,621,177$23,737,631第十三页，共四十页。PhilosophiesWarrenadoptedFisherandMunger’sphilosophiesSuperioreconomicsworkingintheirfavorSellingatthe“right”priceWarrendidNOTadoptGraham’sphilosophySellingata“bargain”price第十四页，共四十页。Warren’sInvestingBeliefsConsumermonopoly,withexceptionalbusinesseconomics,andshareholder-orientedmanagementBasesinvestmentdecisionson8keyquestions第十五页，共四十页。8KeyQuestionstoInvestingDoesthebusinesshaveanidentifiableconsumermonopoly?Aretheearningsofthecompanystrongandshowinganupwardtrend?Isthecompanyconservativelyfinanced?Doesthebusinessconsistentlyearnahighrateofreturnonshareholdersequity?第十六页，共四十页。(cont.)Doesthebusinessretainitsearnings?Howmuchmoneydoesthebusinesshavetospendonmaintainingthecurrentoperations?Howgoodisthemanagementatreinvestingretainedearnings,earningsinbusinessopportunitiesandexpansionofoperations?Isthecompanyfreetoadjustpricestoinflation?第十七页，共四十页。WhenToBuyBusinessesattheirworstBusinesseswithexcellentmanagementwillsurviverecessionsandlikelycomeoutofitinabetterpositionStockmarketcancreatesituationsthatwhipsawsecuritypricesregardlessoftheunderlyingeconomicsofthebusiness.第十八页，共四十页。WhentoSellGraham’sApproachSellwhensecurityreachesintrinsicvalue

WarrensApproachHoldontostockaslongaspossible Possibleonlywheninvestinginexcellentbusiness.第十九页，共四十页。QuantitativeAnalysis第二十页，共四十页。ThreeInitialTestsTest#1:PredictabilityofEarningsIsthecompanystrong?Doesthecompany’sEPShaveanupwardtrend?Test#2:InitialRateofReturnInitialRateofReturn=EPS/sharepriceTest#3:PerShareGrowthRateUsePV/FVFormulaFV=PV(1+r)T第二十一页，共四十页。GrowthofRetainedEarnings

EPSStockPriceEarningsareeitherretainedorpaidasdividendsRetainedEarningsgrowatthesamerateasROECompoundingeffectstakesplacewhentheyearsofholdingincreaseInitialRateofReturn=第二十二页，共四十页。AnnualCompoundingRateofReturnProjectFutureEPSPVformulaProjecttheMarketPriceMarketPrice=P/ERatio*EPSProjecttheAnnualCompoundingRateofReturnPV/FVFormula第二十三页，共四十页。IncreasingShareholderValueStockRepurchasesDecreases#ofsharesoutstandingIncreasesEPSIncreaseinsharepriceInvestorreceiveshighreturn第二十四页，共四十页。HighRatesofReturnonEquityBuffettviewssomestocksasequity/bondbecauseofvariableratesofreturnHighROEEPSwillincreasefasterandatahigherrateRatesofreturncompetewiththerateofreturnpaidongovernmentbonds第二十五页，共四十页。ValuingRelativetoGovernmentBonds

CurrentpershareearningsRateofreturnforgovernmentbondsDeterminestheintrinsicvalueofthecompanyComparethispricewiththemarketpricePrice=第二十六页，共四十页。Short-TermArbitrageOpportunitiesOpportunitiesthatariseuponthemergersoracquisitionsoffirmsProfitisdeterminedbythepricespreadAnnualReturn=CG–L(100%-C)/YPC=expectedchanceofsuccess(%)G=expectedgainintheeventofsuccessL=expectedlossintheeventoffailureY=expectedtimeofholding(years)P=currentpriceofthesecurity第二十七页，共四十页。Let’sbegintheBuffetAnalysis!DoresearchandgatherannualreportonMcDonald’sCorporationDoesMcDonald’shaveanyidentifiableconsumermonopolyordotheysellacommodity-typeproduct?Isthecompanyconservativelyfinanced?LongTermDebtTotalLiabilities+Shareholder’sEquity=37%第二十八页，共四十页。BuffettologyAretheearningsofthecompanystrong,anddotheyshowanupwardtrend?HowdoesMcDonald’sallocatecapital?DoesMcDonald’smakebuybacks?YearEarnings1986$0.621987$0.721988$0.861989$0.981990$1.101991$1.181992$1.301993$1.451994$1.681995$1.971996$2.21第二十九页，共四十页。MoreBuffettologyDoesMcDonald’sincreaseshareholderearnings?13.8%rateofreturn$10.001986shareprice$47.00in1996Howisthecompany’sreturnonequity?Isthecompanyfreetoadjustpricestoinflation?YearROE198619.1%198718.8%198818.9%198920.5%199019.2%199117.8%199216.0%199317.3%199417.8%199518.2%199618.0%第三十页，共四十页。PriceAnalysisInitialRateofReturnandRelativeValuetoGovernmentBondsGovernmentbondw/staticrateofreturn:7%McDonald’sequityw/initialrateofreturn:5.2%increasingatanannualrateof13.5%McDonald’sStockasanEquity/BondAnnualcompoundingrateofreturn:14.6%ProjectAnnualCompoundingRateofReturnUsingHistoricalAnnualEPSGrowthFigureAnnualcompoundingrateofreturn:12.6%第三十一页，共四十页。AnEccentricManEatsthesamemealeverydayDrivesaVWBeetleHasalive-ingirlfriendwhowasintroducedtoWarrenbyhiswife第三十二页，共四十页。Questions?第三十三页，共四十页。第三十四页，共四十页。SomeexamplesTheWashingtonPostisagoodexampleofthis.Warrenbought1,727,765sharesin1973for$9,731,000andstillhasitwithhim.Todayitisworth$600million,givinghimacompoundingreturnofabout18.7%.GEICOisanotherexampleofthis.Hebought$45,713,000worthofsharesin1972.In1995,itwasworth$1,759,594,000givinghimacompoundingrateof17.2%.第三十五页，共四十页。WhatdoesitmeanWarrensaidthatifGrahambelievedthesharewasworth$62.50butwassellingat$50thenthestockwasundervaluedby$12.50.IfGrahaminvestedinthecompanyat$50andthestockroseto$62.50thenhewouldmake25%returnonhisinvestmentonthefirstyear.Butifitdroppedthenhewouldlosemoney.Thusifitkeepsdropping,thenhelosesmoneyandhasnoreturns.ThisistherealizationofthevalueproblemthatWarrensawanddecidedtoadopttheprinciplesofPhilipFisherandCharlesMunger.WarrenfeltthatthemethodsofGrahamlackeduncertaintyandheheldholdingsthatneverperformed.第三十六页，共四十页。ThreeExcellentBusinessesBusiness1Businessesthatmakeproductsthatwearoutfastorareusedupquickly,thathavebrandappeal,andthatmerchantshavetocarryorusetostayinbusinessSomeexamplesthatWarrensaysareperfectareCoca-Cola,HersheyFoodschocolate,Wrigleygum,andDoritos.Thesecompaniesnodoubtareexcellentbusinessesbecausealmosteveryconvenientstorehastheseproducts.ForclothingFruitoftheLoom,Nike,HanesandLevi’sareallgood.第三十七页，共四十页。Business2CommunicationsbusinessesthatprovidearepetitiveservicemanufacturersmustusetopersuadethepublictobuytheirproductsWarreninitiallyinvestedagreat