csba -大集中小赌注以及中转进步的战争影响 -对JADC2的轨迹的三个担忧

BigCentralization,SmallBets,

andtheWarfightingImplications

ofMiddlingProgress

ThreeConcernsaboutJADC2’sTrajectory

April2023lTravisSharpandTylerHacker

“Itwouldbepleasanttopredictthatthemultiplicationofseparatesystemsisabouttobereversed;However,theprobabilityisthatinthenearfuturetherewillnotbeasignificantchangeinthismassivetrend.”

NormanC.Dalkey,CommandandControl—AGlanceattheFuture,RANDCorporation(1962)1

Warfarehasalwaysbeenacontestofincompleteinformationandimperfectcontrol,witheachsidestrainingtofindtheenemyinanunfavorablepositionandcoordinatehisdestruction.2Althoughthetechnologiesusedtosurveil,communicate,andattackhavechangedthroughouthistory,theadvantagesgainedfromscoutingandsynchronizingmoreeffectivelythanone’sopponenthaveendured.3Strippedofitsjargon,theJointAll-DomainCommandandControl(JADC2)visionofintegratingsensorsandshooterscomprisesmerelythelatestPentagonefforttoprovideU.S.forceswiththetimelessmilitaryadvantagesofsuperiorinformationandcontrol.ThisbasicthrustofJADC2representsavitalobjectiveworthpursuing–eveniftheidealizedoutcome,fullyinte-gratedC2,likelyremainsasunattainabletodayaswhentheepigramappeared60yearsago.

DespiteJADC2’sworthygoal,itsprogramsandgovernancepresentgreatdifficulties.Commonlycitedproblemsincludeambig-uousconcepts,disjointedprograms,andoveremphasisontechnology.4Tospurconstructivedialogue,thispolicybriefraisesthreeadditionalconcernsthathavereceivedlessattention.

1.AlthoughthePentagonhassteadilyaddedcentralizedcontrolstofocusJADC2efforts,furthercentralizationriskscurtailingthemessinessessentialtoinnovationandtransformingstakeholdersintoopponents.

2.JADC2’sannualfunding,whichweestimateat$1.4billionto$3.5billioninthefiscalyear2024request,appearsmodestrelativetoitscolossalambitions,indicatingapotentiallyriskyrelianceonsmallbetstoproducelargepayoffs.

3.IfJADC2ultimatelymakesonlymiddlingprogress,arealisticoutcomeregardlessofhowthePentagonhandlescentral-izationandfunding,policymakersshouldensurethattheU.S.militaryisnotmeaningfullyworseoffrelativetopotentialadversariesthanitwouldhavebeenotherwise.Putdifferently,anychangesintroducedbyJADC2,nomatterhowpiece-meal,shouldadheretoa“first,donoharm”principlewithrespecttofuturewarfighting.Modeling,simulation,andwargamingcanhelppolicymakersunderstandthepotentialconsequencesofvariedlevelsofJADC2realization.

1

2

3

4

N.C.Dalkey,CommandandControl–AGlanceattheFuture(SantaMonica,CA:RANDCorporation,1962),p.5,

/pubs/papers/P2675.html

.WayneP.HughesJr.andRobertP.Girrier,FleetTacticsandNavalOperations,ThirdEdition(Annapolis,MD:NavalInstitutePress,2018),pp.184–191,198–210.SunTzu,TheArtofWar,translatedbyLionelGiles(SaltLakeCity,UT:ProjectGutenbergeBook,lastupdated2021),“ChapterXIII.TheUseofSpies,”https://www./files/132/132-h/132-h.htm#chap21.

JohnR.Hoehn,JointAll-DomainCommandandControl:BackgroundandIssuesforCongress(Washington,DC:CongressionalResearchService[CRS],March18,2021),pp.13–17,

/product/pdf/R/R46725/2

;andAndrewMetrick,“TheSirenSong:Technology,JADC2,andtheFutureofWar,”BreakingDefense,January19,2023,

/2023/01/the-siren-song-technology-jadc2-and-the-future-of-war/

.

1667KSTREET,NW|SUITE900|WASHINGTON,DC20006|202-331-7990

1667KSTREET,NW|SUITE900|WASHINGTON,DC20006|202-331-7990

JADC2Vision:IntegratingSensorsandShooters

TheDepartmentofDefense(DoD)hasdescribedJADC2asanapproachtodevelopinginterconnectedjointforceC2capabilitiesthatsense,makesense,andactoninformationquickly.5Itbuildsuponlong-runningeffortstointegratemilitarybattlenetworksdatingbacktoatleastWorldWarII.6JADC2aimstoreplaceagingU.S.C2capabilitieswithnewtechnologies,connectingprevi-ouslyunintegratedtacticalnetworksintheprocess.ItenvisionsfieldingC2systemsthatcanprocessvoluminousdata,identifytargets,andautomaticallyrecommendtargetprosecutionoptionsacrossalldomains.Itintendstoexpeditekillchaincompletionbyacceleratinginformationsharingbetweensensorsandshooterstonearreal-time.7

Inourassessment,JADC2envisagestransformingthekillchainintwosteps(Figure1).First,itwilllinkselectsystemsintonewnetworks,withoptimalsensorsandshootersconnectedatoptimaltimes.Second,itwillmovefromlinkingselectsystemsinnewnetworkstolinkingallsystemsinonenetwork,withallsensorsandshootersconnectedallthetime.

FIGURE1:HOWJADC2INTENDSTOTRANSFORMU.S.MILITARYKILLCHAINS

Rigidpre-definedkiIIchain

OptimaIsensorsandshootersconnectedatoptimaItimes

AIIsensorsandshootersconnectedaIIthetime

Source:GraphiccreatedbyCSBA.

5

6

7

DepartmentofDefense(DoD),SummaryoftheJointAll-DomainCommand&Control(JADC2)Strategy,March2022,p.2,

/2022/

Mar/17/2002958406/-1/-1/1/SUMMARY-OF-THE-JOINT-ALL-DOMAIN-COMMAND-AND-CONTROL-STRATEGY.PDF.

Abattlenetworkcombinestargetacquisitionsensors,targetlocalizationsensors,commandandcontrol(C2)elements,weapons,weaponplatforms,andtheelectroniccommunicationslinkingthemtogether.JohnStillionandBryanClark,WhatItTakestoWin:Succeedingin21stCenturyBattleNetworkCompetitions(Washington,DC:CenterforStrategicandBudgetaryAssessments[CSBA],2015),p.1,

/research/publications/what-it-takes-to-win-succeeding-in-21st-

century-battle-network-competitions/publication/1;andBarryWatts,SixDecadesofGuidedMunitionsandBattleNetworks:ProgressandProspects(Washington,DC:CSBA,2007),p.17,

/research/publications/six-decades-of-guided-munitions-and-battle-networks-progress-and-prospects

.

SeeGeneralMarkMilley’scommentsinColinDemarestandCourtneyAlbon,“Pentagon’sJADC2StrategyFocuseson‘Approach’,”C4ISRNet,March18,2022,

/battlefield-tech/it-networks/2022/03/18/pentagons-jadc2-strategy-focuses-on-approach/

.

FlagshipJADC2InitiativesbytheMilitaryServices

AdvancedBattleManagementSystem/TransportLayer:TheDepartmentoftheAirForce’sprimaryJADC2effortistheAdvancedBattleManagementSystem(ABMS)datanetwork.8OriginallyintendedtoreplacetheE-3AirborneWarningandControlSystem,ABMShasevolvedintoabroaderC2initativeledbyanewprogramexecutiveoffice.9TheAirForcewantsABMScapabilitiestoincludesecureprocessing,connectivity,datamanagement,applications,sensorintegration,andeffectsintegration.10ABMSwillrelyontheSpaceForce’stransportlayer,aplannedconstellationofhundredsoflowearthorbitsatel-litestransmittingC2dataworldwide.11

ProjectOvermatch:TheDepartmentoftheNavy’scentralJADC2effortisProjectOvermatch,asecretiveprogramtodevelopdatanetworks,infrastructure,andarchitecture,alongwithtoolsandanalytics.12TheNavywantsOvermatchtoprovideconnec-tivityfordispersednavalmaneuveragainstenemyforces,theapproachenshrinedintheconceptsofDistributedMaritimeOperations(Navy)andExpeditionaryAdvancedBaseOperations(MarineCorps).13Accordingtomediareporting,theNavysignificantlyincreaseditsOvermatchspendingrequestin2023.14

ProjectConvergence:TheDepartmentoftheArmy’smainJADC2effortisProjectConvergence,acampaignoflearningaimedatdevelopingtechnologiesandtechniquestointegratetheArmywiththejointforce.15LedbyArmyFuturesCommand,Convergencehasemphasizedfivecomponents:soldiers,information,terrain,weapons,andC2.TheArmyhastestedadvance-mentsintheseareasduringannualConvergenceexercises,toincludeusingthenewIntegratedBattleCommandSystemtoC2airandmissiledefenseassets.16

JADC2InitiativesandGovernance:RisksofExcessiveCentralization

Overthepastthreeyears,JADC2initiativeshavegrowninnumber,activity,andresourcing.17ThemilitaryserviceshaveadvancedtheirflagshipJADC2initiativesandincreasedtheirshareofestimatedDoD-wideJADC2funding(seenextsection).RelyingontheservicestodriveJADC2developmenthasbeennecessary.Onlytheypossessthestatutoryauthority,organizationalcapacity,andwarfightingexpertisetoequipthemselveswithJADC2capabilities.Yetdisjointednesshasalsoappeared,predictably,withseniorofficialsinsideandoutsidetheserviceswarningaboutmisalignedJADC2efforts.18

8

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12

13

14

15

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DepartmentoftheAirForce,FiscalYear(FY)2023BudgetEstimates,Research,Development,Test&Evaluation,JustificationBookVolume2,April2022,p.97,

/Portals/84/documents/FY23/RDTE_/FY23%20Air%20Force%20Research%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation%20

Vol%20II.pdf?ver=LK67U_ThMsX7AwahfurKGw%3d%3d.

JohnR.Hoehn,AdvancedBattleManagementSystem(ABMS)(Washington,DC:CRS,February15,2022),p.1,

/crs/weapons/IF11866.pdf

;andGovernmentAccountabilityOffice(GAO),BattleManagement:DODandAirForceContinuetoDefineJointCommandandControlEfforts,January2023,pp.6–7,

/assets/gao-23-105495.pdf

.

GAO,BattleManagement,p.5.

SpaceDevelopmentAgency,“Transport,”accessedJanuary25,2023,

/transport/

.

ChiefofNavalOperationsMemorandumtoRearAdmiralDouglasW.Small,October1,2020,p.1,

/sites//files/

documents/2020/oct/10192020_overmatch.pdf.

MarineCorpsWarfightingLab,ExpeditionaryAdvancedBaseOperations(EABO)Handbook,June1,2018,/wp-content/uploads/Expeditionary-Advanced-Base-Operations-EABO-handbook-1.1.pdf.

NathanStrout,“NavyDramaticallyIncreasesFundingforSecretiveProjectOvermatch,”C4ISRNet,March28,2022,

/

it-networks/2022/03/28/navy-dramatically-increases-funding-for-secretive-project-overmatch/.

ArmyFuturesCommand,“ProjectConvergence,”accessedJanuary25,2023,/convergence/.

AndrewEversden,“Army’sIBCSPassedF-35SensorDatatoArtillerySystematProjectConvergence21,”BreakingDefense,January20,2022,https:///2022/01/armys-ibcs-passed-f-35-sensor-data-to-artillery-system-at-project-convergence-21/.

ThissectionandthenextdrawonmaterialfirstpublishedinTravisSharp,“JADC2SpendingIsSprawling.DoDShouldKeepWatch,ButLetItGo,”BreakingDefense,October20,2022,

/2022/10/jadc2-spending-is-sprawling-dod-should-keep-watch-but-let-it-go

.

BrandiVincent,“HicksWantsMoreHigh-LevelOversightofPentagon’sJADC2Efforts,”FedScoop,August23,2022,/hicks-wants-more-high-level-oversight-of-pentagons-jadc2-efforts/.

DoDhassteadilyaddedcentralizedcontrolstoencourageunityofeffort.InJanuary2020,theJointStaffJ6deputydirectorstartedchairingaJADC2cross-functionalteamtaskedwithcoordinatingday-to-dayeffortsandsynchronizingcommondatastan-dards.19InMay2021,DefenseSecretaryLloydAustinsignedaclassifiedJADC2strategyestablishinglinesofeffortandguidingprinciples.InMarch2022,DoDreleasedanunclassifiedsummaryofthestrategywhileDeputyDefenseSecretaryKathleenHicksapprovedaclassifiedimplementationplan.20Finally,inOctober2022,theOfficeoftheSecretaryDefense(OSD)createdanewacquisition,integration,andinteroperabilityofficetaskedwithoverseeingdepartmentwideJADC2efforts.21

Althoughthecentralizedcontrolsaddedtodateseemappropriate,takingfurtherstepstowardcentralization,suchascreatingajointprogramexecutiveofficetomanageallJADC2initiatives,riskscurtailingthemessinessessentialtoinnovationandtrans-formingstakeholdersintoopponents.22

ContainingMessinessRisksUnderminingInnovation

Successfulresearchanddevelopment(R&D)oftenrequiresmessinessanderrorsearlytoavoidthemlater.OverlycentralizingJADC2governance,whetherinOSDorintheserviceleaderships,risksunderminingthisknowledge-creationprocess.AsThomasMcNaugherconcludedinhisclassicstudyofweaponsacquisition,“TheconundrumofR&D,itmightbesaid,isthatunlessoneiswillingtowastemoneyearly,oneislikelytowastemuchmoremoneylater[…]Itiseasiertostopandstartprojectsintheirearlystages,butofcoursesuchchoicesaremadeonthebasisofcostandperformanceinformationthatisalmostalwayswrong.”23IfJADC2“isreallyasoftware-centricenterpriseproblem,”asHicksremarked,thensoftware-styleinnovation—bottom-upanditer-ative—shouldoutperformthetopdownanddirectiveapproachingrainedinDoDculture.24

AcriticmightcounterthatJADC2haslittleexcuseformessinessbecauseseveralinitiativesarenotearlystage.Rather,theyconglomeratelong-runningeffortsthatpreviouslyhaddifferentnames.Inthisview,forexample,ABMSisarebrandedcontinua-tionofolderprograms.25Iftheseeffortsshouldhavebeenfieldedinsomeformalready,orbeencanceledduetoinfeasibility,thencontinuingtodevelopthemunderJADC2isill-advised.

Althoughthistechnologicalmaturitycritiquemeritscontinuedattention,itisworthnotingthatseniorDoDofficials,includingthosewhohaveleftgovernment,havenotcriticizedJADC2asunnecessaryeventhoughtheyhaveincentivestostopwastefulness.26Instead,theyhavelamenteditsambiguity.AsHickssaid,“IfyouaskanytwopeoplewhattheythinkJADC2is,you’llprobablygetdifferentanswers.”27Observerscouldinterpretthiscommentindifferentways,butitseemsmoreindicativeoftheearlyprob-lem-definingstagewhenmessinessisavirtue,notavice.

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24

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26

27

GAO,BattleManagement,pp.16–22.

ColinDemarest,“Pentagon’sSecretJADC2Plan‘Evolving,’OfficialSays,asLawmakersSeekAudit,”DefenseNews,July11,2022,/battlefield-tech/it-networks/2022/07/11/pentagons-secret-jadc2-plan-evolving-official-says-as-lawmakers-seek-audit/.

JaspreetGill,“PentagonSeeksMore‘Jointness’forJADC2asOSDStandsUpNewOffice,”BreakingDefense,October27,2022,/2022/10/pentagon-seeks-more-jointness-for-jadc2-as-osd-stands-up-new-office/.

NicolasM.Chaillan,“Let’sCatch-UpwithChinawithin6Months,”LinkedIn,November24,2021,

/pulse/lets-catch-up-china-within-

6-months-nicolas-m-chaillan/;andCynthiaR.Cooketal.,PathwaystoImplementingComprehensiveandCollaborativeJADC2(Washington,DC:CenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies[CSIS],September2022),pp.4–6,

/s3fs-public/publication/220927_Cook_

Pathways_ImplementingJADC2_0.pdf?VersionId=UZ5C9IjGtH0RMlTUk0wJBuToEei92zGJ.

ThomasL.McNaugher,NewWeaponsOldPolitics(Washington,DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress,1989),pp.5,123.

Vincent,“HicksWantsMoreHigh-LevelOversight”;EricS.Raymond,“TheCathedralandtheBazaar,”FirstMonday3,no.3(March1998),

/

ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/578;andDefenseInnovationBoard,“SoftwareisNeverDone:RefactoringtheAcquisitionCodeforCompetitiveAdvantage,”May3,2019,

/2019/May/01/2002126691/-1/-1/0/SWAP%20FLYER.PDF

.

RobertK.Ackerman,“AirForceFliesintoNetwork-CentricAirspace,”Signal,February1,2005,

/signal-media/air-force-flies-network-

centric-airspace.

Chaillan,“Let’sCatch-UpwithChina.”

Vincent,“HicksWantsMoreHigh-LevelOversight.”

DictatingOutcomesRisksTurningStakeholdersintoOpponents

OverlycentralizingJADC2risksalienatingstakeholdersandwreckingtheadvocacynetworkthatsupportsJADC2inprinciplebutviewsitsambitionandnebulousnessskeptically.28NumerousJADC2initiativesareconductingexperimentation.Theservices’flagshipinitiativeshavehelddemonstrationsregularly.Inthecomingyears,experimentationwillintensifyduetonewcongres-sionalrequirementsincludedinthe2023NationalDefenseAuthorizationAct.29

Historyshowsthatifseniorofficialsappeartobepickingwinnersandlosersbeforeexperimentationhasproducedresults,keystakeholdersmayrevoltagainsttheentireundertaking.30Noleaderwantstolendtheircredibilitytoashamprocess.In2002,LieutenantGeneral(Ret.)PaulVanRiper’spublicaccusationsofscriptednessintheMilleniumChallengeexerciseweakenedsupportforthenewconceptsbeingdeveloped.31

Inlightofthisrisk,DoDshouldavoidpermittinganycentralizedauthoritytodictateJADC2outcomesuntilinitialexperimenta-tionhasprogressedfurther.Determininghowmuchexperimentationisenoughrepresentsajudgmentcall,butsuccessfuleffortshistoricallyhavetakenatleastafewyears.32

JADC2Funding:SmallBetsforLargePayoffs

DoDhasneverpubliclyreleasedafulllistofprogramsfallingunderJADC2,althoughitreportedlytracksthisinformationinter-nally.33Giventheabsenceofsuchalist,generatingadetailedestimateofJADC2fundingrequiressummingthecostsofindividualinitiativesthat,inone’sjudgment,directlysupportJADC2.Thisaggregationtechniquehasshortcomings,includingpotentialimprecisionandirreplicability.Still,itremainsawidelyusedandreasonablemethodforestimatingtotalfundingwhenDoDhasnotreleasedprogram-by-programcostfiguresfortheconceptofinteresttoananalyst.34

WesearchedDoDbudgetrequestsforkeywordssuchasABMS,Overmatch,andConvergence,identifyingasampleof23to

25initiativeswhosedescriptionsconveyed,inourjudgment,thattheydirectlysupportedJADC2(seeappendix).35TherangeexpressesuncertaintyabouttheextenttowhichtwoSpaceForceinitiatives,SpaceTechnologyDevelopmentandPrototypingandDefensiveCyberspaceOperations-Space,directlyoronlypartiallysupportJADC2.Futureresearchcanrefineourwork.

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DanGouré,“AretheWheelsComingOfftheJADC2Bus?”RealClearDefense,September6,2022,/articles/2022/09/06/are_the_wheels_coming_off_the_jadc2_bus_851924.html.

117thCongress,JamesM.InhofeNationalDefenseAuthorizationActforFiscalYear2023,H.R.7776,Section915,pp.358–361,

/117/

bills/hr7776/BILLS-117hr7776enr.pdf.

RyanC.Kendall,“PlayingWar:U.S.MilitaryExperimentationandInnovationDuringPeacetime,”Ph.D.dissertation,UniversityofTexasatAustin,May2022,

/bitstream/handle/2152/114777/KENDALL-DISSERTATION-2022.pdf

.

Ibid.,pp.258–259;andSeanD.Naylor,“RiggedWarGame?MillenniumChallengeFixed,OpposingForcesCommanderSays,”ArmyTimes,August26,2002.RobertG,Angevine,“InnovationandExperimentationintheU.S.Navy:TheUPTIDEAntisubmarineWarfareExperiments,1969–72,”JournalofStrategicStudies28,no.1(February2005),pp.77–105.

GAO,BattleManagement,p.23.

Path-breakingexamplesoftheaggregationtechniqueappearinStephenI.Schwartz,ed.,AtomicAudit:TheCostsandConsequencesofU.S.NuclearWeaponsSince1940(Washington,DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress,1998).

Wesearchedforthefollowingkeywords,includingspelledoutacronyms:JADC2,ABMS,MDC2,ProjectConvergence,ProjectOvermatch,Mosaic,FNC3,5GInfoCommsTech,andUDL.ThekeywordscamefromHoehn,JointAll-DomainCommandandControl,p.2ofPDF.Usingkeywordsfromanindependentthird-partysourceguardedagainstsamplingbias.Weaddedaninitiativetothesampleifthebudgetjustificationmaterialconveyed,inourassessment,thattheinitiativelikelywouldnotexistinitspresentformifJADC2didnotexist.

Billionscurrent$

FIGURE2:ESTIMATEDRANGEOFRDT&EFUNDINGFORJADC2,FY22TOFY24

$4.0

$3.0

$2.0

$1.0

$0.0

$3.5b

Defense-Wide

$2.2b

Defense-

Wide

Services

Defense-

Wide

Defense-

Wide

Services

Services

$1.4b

Defense-Wide

Defense-Wide

$1.2b

$1.1b

$2.2b

Services

Services

Services

LowHighLowHighLowHigh

FY22FY23FY24

(enacted)(enacted)(requested)

Source:FY24DoDbudgetrequestdocuments.Seeappendixfordataandsourcing.

Notes:Figuresrepresenttotalobligationalauthorityexpressedinbillionsofcurrent(i.e.non-inflationadjusted)dollars.JointWarfightingCloudCapabilityexcludedfromsamplebecauseDoDhasnotyetreleasedayear-to-yearspendingplanorobligatedanyfundstothefourcontractors(Google,Oracle,Amazon,Microsoft).36Forfiscalyear2024,theJADC2initiativesinoursampletogetherrequestedbetween$1.4billionand$3.5billion(Figure2),withtherangedrivenbywhetheroneincludes$2.1billionrequestedforSpaceTechnologyDevelopmentandPrototyping.37Theservicesrequested75percentofthefundsin2024underthelowestimate,upfrom57percentin2022.Innon-inflation-adjustedterms,theservices’JADC2fundinggrewbyover$400millionfrom2022to2024underthelowestimate,whiledefense-widefundingshrankbyabout$120millionoverthesameperiod.OursampleofJADC2programslikelydoesnotmatchperfectlywithDoD’sowninternaltracking,particularlysincewecannotseeintoclassifiedprograms.Still,ourestimatealignswithnewinformationreleasedbythePentagoninMarch2023.Inthefiscalyear2024budgetrequest,DoDrevealedthatitwasseeking$1.4billioninresearchanddevelopmentfundsforJADC2.38Totheauthors’knowledge,thisrepresentsthefirsttimethatDoDhasdisclosedafigurefortotalannualJADC2spending.ThecongruencebetweenDoD’s$1.4billionfigureandourlowestimatefor2024validatesouranalyticalapproach,especiallysince

36

37

38

DoD,“ContractsforDec.7,2022,”

/News/Contracts/Contract/Article/3239197/

.

Theappendixincludestherawdatausedinthisparagraph’scalculations.

DoD,“FY2024BudgetBriefing,”updatedMarch15,2023,p.15,/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2024/FY2024_Budget_Request.pdf.

wedisseminatedpreviousversionsofourestimatepriortoMarch2023–meaningouranalyticalapproachexistedpriortoDoDreleasinganofficialfigure.39

Zoomingoutfromthedetails,ourestimateindicatesastrikingmismatchbetweenJADC2’smodestfundinganditsimmodestvision.SpendingafewbillionperyearonJADC2representsasurprisinglysmallinvestmentgivenJADC2’scolossalambitionsoftransformingjointforceC2capabilities.40EvenifJADC2spendingincreasedbyafactorof10,reaching$14billion,thatamountwouldstillequallessthan$0.02ofeverydollarDoDspendsin2023,atinycommitmenttoabigpriority.41Tobefair,smallbudgetarybetshavesometimesproducedlargeoperationalpayoffsintheC2domain.TheGermanarmy’sinvestmentinlow-costradioscontributedtoitssuccessfultankoperationsin1939-40.42However,thecutting-edgetechnologyandforce-widetransfor-mationenvisionedbyJADC2stronglysuggestthatitwillnotsucceedonthecheap.

WarfightingImplicationsofMiddlingProgress

Realistically,weshouldexpectJADC2tomakeunevenprogressacrossthemilitaryservicesregardlessofDoD’sdecisionsaboutcentralizationandfunding.ThemixedsuccessofpastJADC2-likeinitiativessuggeststhatmiddlingprogressisthemostlikelyoutcome.43DifferentJADC2initiativeswillsurelyencounterdifferenttechnicalobstaclesduringtheirdevelopmentandimple-mentation,meaningsomeinitiativesandorganizationswillprogressfasterandfurtherthanothers.44Additionally,differencesinscaleamongtheserviceswillnaturallyleadtoimbalancedprogress.EquippingalltheAirForce’sactivecombat-codedfighterswithnewJADC2systemswouldinvolveupgradingover940aircraft.45Incontrast,equippingjustoneoftheArmy’selevenarmoredbrigadeswithnewsystemswouldinvolveupgradingover1,200vehicles.46

ThehighlikelihoodofmiddlingprogresscarriespotentiallydetrimentalconsequencesforU.S.militaryeffectiveness.IfJADC2fieldsunevenlyorlacksbackwardcompatibilitywithkeylegacysystems,thentheresultingdisjointednessinC2couldundermineU.S.militaryeffectiveness.IncompatibleC2systemshavecontributedtotragiceventsbefore,includingfatalfriendlyfireincidentsintheskiesovernorthernIraqin1994andbetweenairandgroundforcesinAfghanistanin2014.47EstablishingstandardizedC2betweenfrontandrearechelonsorbetweenwarfightingfunctionspresentsaconstantchallenge.Thesehazardsappearedduringthe2003invasionofIraqwhenforwardmaneuverunitsoperatedwithlittleofthesituationalawarenesspossesse