2021年安防技术重要趋势报告

askananalyst@ConnectingtheDots:

PhysicalSecurityTechnologies–TopTrendsin2021

IntroductionForourannualtechnologytrendswhitepaper,2021,weincludetrendsfromanalystscoveringthephysicalsecuritytechnologiesandcriticalcommunicationsindustries.Comingoutof2019,our2020whitepaperforecastacontinuationofpositivegrowth.Theworldwidephysicalsecuritymarketgrewby9%from2019to2020,withsomeregionalmarkets,likeIndiaandSoutheastAsia,expandingevenmorerapidly.However,againstabackdropofglobalindustrydisruptionfromCOVID-19andcontinuedtradedisputesbetweentheUSandChina—theworld’stwolargesteconomiesandalsothetwobiggestplayersinthephysicalsecuritymarket—thephysicalsecurityequipmentindustryexperiencedsignificantlyslowergrowthoflessthan2%in2020.Despitemanytechnologiesexperiencingnegativerevenuegrowthin2020,Omdiaispositiveontheoutlookfor2021.Optimismsurroundingnewtechnologydevelopments,coupledwithmarketsopeningupandfewerrestrictionsonpeoples’movementslaterintheyearasvaccinationprogramstakeeffect,areexpectedtodriveworldwidegrowthof7%thisyear.So,whatwillbethebigstoriesin2021?Video-centricIOT,AI-drivenhybridVSaaSsolutions,andfrictionlessbiometricsarejustsomeofthetrendsdiscussedinoureleventhannualwhitepaperontrendsfortheyearahead.Thepredictionsonthefollowingaretoprovidesomeguidanceonopportunitiesacrosssecuritytechnologiesin2021:Video-centricIOTAIattheedgeforeveryoneChinaremainstheworld’sbiggestvideosurveillancemarketHybridPSaaSsolutiontodriveAIadoptionFrictionlessBiometricsBodyworncameraadoptioninnon-lawenforcementapplicationsMission-criticalLTEadoptionhitscriticalmassSmartpublicsafetyservicesThermalcamerasforbodytemperatureandintrusionclassificationIfyouwouldliketospeakwithoneofouranalystsonanyofthetopicscoveredinthispaper,ortodiscussourserviceofferings,pleasecontactus.OliverPhilippou,ResearchManager–PhysicalSecurityTechnologiesPage2©2021OmdiaVideo-centricIoTAsvideosurveillancegoes“beyondsecurity”Page3©2021OmdiaVideo-centricIoTAsvideosurveillancegoes“beyondsecurity,”video-centricIoTisaconceptbeingincreasinglymarketed.Video-centricIoTplatformsarebuiltontheconceptthatintelligentcamerascanusethelatestvideoanalyticstoprovidemultifunctionmetadataratherthanhavingseveralindependentsensors,eachprovidingdatafordifferentapplications.Additionalsensorsanddevicesarealsointegrated,yet,camerasasakeystonesensorandaninbuiltproficiencyinmanagingvideodataoffersplatformsarchitectedinthiswayapotentialadvantageoverotherplatformswhichmayaddincamerasasjustanothersensor.

Currently,thetrendofvideo-centricplatformsismanifestingitselfinthedevelopmentofcamera-firstecosystemswithdedicateddeviceoperatingsystems.Thesealsocenteraroundcamerasasmultiusesensorswith“software-defined”capabilitiesbeingofferedviaapplicationdevelopers.Thisisn’tnew,butthe“appification”ofcamerasviaappstoremodelsthatofferlessfrictionthanpreviousecosystemsisadevelopmenttowatch.Competingecosystemshavearangeof“openness.”Someofferarangeofhardwareandsoftwareappsfromthirdparties,someonlyoffersoftwarefromthirdparties,andsomeoffereverythingfromasinglevendor.TotakethisconceptintotherealmoftrueIoTecosystems,itischallengingtoseehowasinglevendorcouldofferafullrangeofIoTdevices,thusadegreeof“openness”islikelyrequiredtoachieveadominantglobalvideo-centricIoTplatform:Avideo-centricIoTplatformwhichcanaggregatedatafromsurveillancecamerasandarangeofdifferentsensorsinordertoserveawiderrangeofapplications“beyondsecurity.”

Page4Source:Omdia©2021Omdia©2021OmdiaAIattheedgeforeveryoneAItotransitionintothemid-rangecameramarketPage5©2021OmdiaAIattheedgeforeveryonePage6Inboththe2019and2020trendswhitepaper,akeydiscussionpointwasthedevelopmentofadvancedsystem-on-chips(SOCs)foranalyticsattheedge—inparticular,fordeeplearninganalyticsattheedge.Inprofessionalvideosurveillanceapplications,OmdiaexpectstheincreaseddeploymentsofAIoncamerain2021tocontinue.Aswithmostnewtechnologies,AIattheedgehasbeenfocusedonthehigh-endofthecameramarket.Butin2021,Omdiaexpectsthistechnologytoincreasinglymakeitswayintothemid-market.OmdiadoesnotexpectAI-basedcamerastosignificantlypenetratethelow-endmarketforseveralyears.Announcementsin2020regardingdevelopmentsofAIcamerasweremadebysoftwarevendors,cameramanufactures,andsemiconductorcompaniesalike.AsignificantannouncementofnotewasmadebyAmbarella.InNovember2020,AmbarellaannouncedthedevelopmentofthenewCV28Mchipset.AnadditiontotheCVfamilyofSOC’s.Thischipset’sperformanceandpricewouldbemoremoderatethattheCV22andCV25productofferings.In2020,Omdiaestimatesthatonly16%ofallnetworkcamerasshippedwereAIcameras.However,developmentofimageprocessers,andthereleaseofAIcamerasbyleadingmanufactures,isexpecteddrivethedevelopmentofthismarket.In2024,thepercentageofsurveillancecamerasshippedwhichareAIcamerasisforecasttohavegrownto58%,meaningthatthistechnologywillbeavailabletolargepartsofthemid-marketsector.Source:Omdia©2021Omdia©2021OmdiaChinaremainstheworld’sbiggestvideosurveillancemarketChineseprofessionalvideosurveillanceequipmentmarketrevenuereached$10.6billionin2019Page7©2021OmdiaChinaremainstheworld’sbiggestvideosurveillancemarketChinacontinuestodrivethegrowthofglobalvideosurveillancemarketItisestimatedthatChineseprofessionalvideosurveillanceequipmentmarketrevenuereached$10.6billionin2019,accountingfor48%ofglobalrevenue.AlthoughtheChinesemarketisforecasttogrowonly4.1%in2020duetotheimpactsofcoronavirus,itisforecastedtogrowatafive-yearCAGRof9.5%to$16.7billionin2024.Thegovernment’snewinfrastructureconstructionplanisamajordriverofdemandinChina.MarketgrowthisalsobolsteredbyfastadoptionofadvancedtechnologiessuchasvideoanalyticssoftwareandunderlyingITinfrastructure.AIanalyticsalongwithsupportinginfrastructurewillboomWithagreaternumberofcamerasdeployed,thestorage,analysis,andsearchofvideofootagebecomesparticularlychallenging.WiththehelpofAIvideoanalytics,objectclassificationandvideosearchcanbefasterandeasier.AImetadatacanbegeneratedviaanalysiscompletedonboardthecamera(theedge)orattheserver/recorder(thecore),oftenacombination.Omdiaestimatesthat19%ofnetworkcamerasshippedinChinain2020wereAIcameras(embeddedwithdeep-learninganalytics).Thepenetrationratewillgrowto63%in2024.AlthoughAIismovingtotheedgequickly,videoanalyticsprocessedatthecenterwillstillshowrobustgrowth.ThiswilldrivethedemandforICTsupportinginfrastructure(includingserver,HCI,andexternalstorage).Omdiaforecaststhatthesupportinginfrastructuremarketwillonaveragegrow11.8%annuallyto2024.Page8©2021OmdiaChinaremainstheworld’sbiggestvideosurveillancemarketTheChinesemarketgetsconcentratedAlthoughtherehavebeensomesignificantnewentrantsintothevideosurveillancemarketinrecentyears—AIstartupssuchasSenseTimeandinternetgiantssuchasAlibabainparticular—thesupplybaseforChineseprofessionalvideosurveillanceequipmentisgraduallybecomingmoreconcentrated.Thetopthreelargestvideosurveillancevendorsaccountedfor59%ofChinesevideosurveillanceequipmentrevenuein2019.However,newentrantswithexpertiseinAI,bigdata,andcloudaregainingsharesfromsmallertraditionalvideosurveillancevendors.Amajorfactoristheadoptionoftheadvancedtechnologiesinwhichthesevendorshaveabackground.GoingforwardChinawillcontinuetobethelargestmarketforvideosurveillanceequipment,withthelargestinstalledbaseofcameras.Theinvestmentsinthefuturewillconcentrateontheutilizationofvideofootagegeneratedbythelargeinstalledbase.AscamerasbecomeanintegralpartofIoTnetworks,anIoTsystemthatcanextractusefulinformationfromcamerasandsensors,analyzinginter-relationshipsamongdata,andgeneratingactionableinsights,willprovidesignificantvaluetostakeholders.AIanalytics,alongwiththesupportinginfrastructuremarket,willcontinuetoseefastgrowthinthecomingyears.Page9©2021OmdiaHybridPSaaSsolutiontodriveAIadoptionAIwilldriveplatformsthatofferbothcentralmanagementandintegrationwithintelligentapplicationsPage10©2021OmdiaHybridsolutioncouldbeanefficientwayforPSaaS,asAIpenetrationgrowsinthephysicalsecuritymarketAsAIisincreasinglyadoptedbythevideosurveillancemarket,end-users’requirementsarealsobecomingincreasinglymorevaried.Inthesecases,apowerfulplatformthatoffersbothcentralmanagementandintegrateswithintelligentapplicationsisbecomingincreasinglyessential.CurrentlyPhysical-Security-as-a-Service(PSaaS)vendorssuchasCiscoMerakialreadyoffersuchsolutions.However,bandwidthconstraintscontinuetolimitdevelopmentofPSaaSsolutions.Despitetelecommunicationscompaniescontinuallyimprovingnetworkspeed,thisfocushasbeenonimprovingdownloadspeedsratherthanuploadspeeds.Moreover,thereareanincreasingamountofIoTsensorsandhigh-qualityvideosthathaveenabledbetteranalyticsapplications,butwhicharealsochallengingtouploadthisvideoanddatatothecloud.Ahybridsolutioncouldbethemostefficientwayforabetterend-userexperience.Usually,itwouldbesmartedgewithcloudwindowpane,whichmeansprocessingis

onpremise,whilestorage(orpartsofstorage)andmanagementareinthecloud.Thismodecouldoffergreaterchoiceofapplications,compatibility,lowerburdenofbandwidth,managementofstorage,andmoreefficientuseofanalytics.Specifically,inChina,thishybridsolutionalsofitstheneedsoffixedassetsforsomegovernmentprojects.OmdiaforecaststhatrevenuefromhybridVSaaSwillgrowthefastest,withaCAGRof30%from2019to2024.Page11Source:Omdia©2021Omdia©2021OmdiaFrictionlessbiometricsTheCOVID-19pandemicisexpectedtoaccelerateatransitiontofrictionlessbiometricsPage12©2021OmdiaFacialrecognitionandfrictionlessfingerprintreaderswillfuelthegrowthofbiometrictechnologiesinaccesscontrolsystemsAfrictionlessbiometricreaderisadevicethatiscapableofscanningandprocessingauser’sbiometricdatawithoutrequiringtheusertopauseandinitiatephysicalcontactwiththedevice.Nearlyeveryfacialrecognitionreader,mostirisrecognitionreaders,andanewlyemergingclassoffrictionlessfingerprintreadersinstalledinaccesscontrolsystemstodayaredefinedasfrictionlessbiometricmodalities.Growthintheuseoffacialrecognitionreaderswillbesupportedbyimproved3DfacialrecognitionAIandadvancedalgorithmsinaccesscontrolsoftware.Thesealgorithmsarecapableofsuccessfullyidentifyingindividualsbasedonmorediscretefeaturesandexpressionsthatcanbedetectedevenwhenlightingconditionschange,andwhenanentrant’sfacialfeaturesarepartiallyobscured.TheCOVID-19pandemicisexpectedtoaccelerateatransitiontofrictionlessbiometricsasenduserswillseektoinvestinhygienicalternativestoreadersthatrequirephysicalinteractionwithsurfacesthatcouldactasvectorsforviruses.Omdiaprojectsthatthemarketforfrictionlessbiometricreaderswillgrowover15%in2021to$196.7million,whiledemandforfrictionreaderswillgrowlessthan5%thatyear.Page13©2021OmdiaBody-worncameraadoptioninnon-lawenforcementapplicationsIntheUSalone,thenumberofprivatesecurityguardsoutnumberpoliceofficersalmosttwo-to-onePage14©2021OmdiaFeaturesetexpansionforbody-worncamerasspursadoptioninnon-lawenforcementapplicationsThepotentialtotaladdressablemarketforprivatesecuritydwarfsthatoflawenforcement.Featuresetexpansionforbodyworncameras,includinglivestreamingcapabilitiesandlocation-basedservices,aresettospuradoptionofbodyworncamerasoutsideofthetraditionallawenforcementapplicationsinwhichtheindustrybegan.Thebodyworncameraindustryisstillinitsinfancy,withproductspecificationsandcustomerrequirementscontinuingtoevolveasthewaythetechnologyisusedcontinuestoberefinedatanorganisationallevel.IntheUSalone,thenumberofprivatesecurityguardsoutnumberpoliceofficersalmosttwo-to-one.Eventhisimbalancedoesnotincludealloftheothernon-lawenforcementroles—ticketinspectors,trafficwardens,healthinspectors,doorstaff,etc.Evenoutsideofthesetraditionalenforcementtyperoles,newusersareemergingintheformofretailstaff.InJuly2020,theCo-op,oneofthelargestfoodretailersintheUKwithmorethan4,000shops,begansupplyingfrontlinestorestaffacross250storeswithbodyworncamerasinresponsetoa“crimeandviolence”epidemic.Andtheyplanforawiderrollouttosome600stores.Thebodyworncamerasdeployedcanstreamlivevideo,whenrequested,toaremotemonitoringstation.LivestreamingviaLTEandGPSintegrationinbodyworncamerasarethetwolargestdriversofthefeaturesetexpansionoccurringinbodyworncameraproductstoday.Itisclearthatalongsidefeaturesetexpansionforproductsalsocomestotaladdressablemarketexpansionfortheindustry.Page15©2021OmdiaMission-criticalLTEadoptionhitscriticalmassBringingthepowerofthecloudtofirstrespondersPage16©2021OmdiaMobilenetworkoperatorsemergeaskeypartnersforpublicsafetymission-criticalnetworksThemodelfornationalmission-criticalLTEnetworkshasbeeningestationsincetheUSbattlefortheD-BlockculminatedinestablishingtheFirstNetAuthorityin2012.EffortsintheUK,Korea,andtheUAEembracedadiversesetofapproacheswithvaryingdegreesofgovernmentnetworkownership.In2021,pathsareconverginguponpublic/privatepartnershipmodels,asexemplifiedbytheUSgovernment's2017contractwithAT&T,theUK'scontractwithEE,andFinland'sdealwithElisa.Subsequentnationaldecisionswillleveragethemobilenetworkoperator'sgeographiccoverageadvantageand3GPPmission-criticalfeaturespecificationtocost-effectivelydeliverservices.Asnationsgainconfidenceinthepublic/privatemodel,theadoptiontrendofnationalpublicsafetybroadbandnetworkswillsignificantlyaccelerate.By2024,Omdiaprojects5.6millionpush-to-talkovercellularsubscriptionsthatwillbeinplace.Byconvergingvoice/dataoperationsonasingledevice,lawenforcementandemergencymedicalserviceswilldramaticallyexpandaccesstocloud-basedapplicationsforincreasedoperationalefficiency.Beyondaccesstocloudapplications,theshifttomission-criticalLTEnetworksforpublicsafetyenablesbroaderaccesstomobilevideoapplications.Flowingvideofromvehiclesandbody-worncamerastocontrolroomshelpsboostsituationalawarenessforincidentcommanders.Likewise,thegrowinguseofdroneplatformsforvideotransmissionwilldrivefurthermission-criticaldatagrowth.Page17Source:Omdia©2021Omdia©2021OmdiaSmartpublicsafetyservicesAdoptionofsmarttechnologiesinthephysicalsecurityindustryhasbeguntricklingdownintothepublicsafetysectorwithAItechnologies,IoT,andcloudapplicationsrevolutionisingemergencyresponse,policing,anddisasterreliefcapabilitiesPage18©2021OmdiaSmartpublicsafetyagenciesareakeyelementofsmartandsafecitiesofthefutureandthepresentIoTtechnologiespromisetocreatesmarterpublicsafetyforces,withwearabledeviceskeepingawatchfuleyeonthewellbeingoffirefightersandpoliceofficers,whilesmartsensorsandcamerasdeployedinwildforestsworktowarnofimpendingfirebeforetheyengulflargeswathsofareasandthreatennearbylivelihoods.Crimesolvinginthe21st

centuryhingesondigitalevidence.However,withthegrowingnumberofnewsourcesofdatasuchasbodyworncamerafeedsandever-expandingcitysurveillancesystems,itisachallengeforinvestigatorstomakethebestuseofalloftheseresources.Currently,detectivesoftenhavetologontoadozensystemsandmanuallysearchforconnectionsbetweencases,whichwastestimeandincreasesthelikelihoodthatcrucialevidencewillbemissed.Scalable,cloud-baseddigitalinvestigationandevidencemanagementsolutionssolvetheseproblemsbyconsolidatingsilosintoasinglelogon,andbyprovidingbuilt-inevidencecollection,crowdsourcing,contentanalytics,visualization,andevidencesharingtoolstomakeinvestigatorsmoreefficientandeffectivecrime-solvers.Dronesarebecomingakeypartnerofpoliceforces.Theiradoptionisfastgrowing,andthelatestusecasescontinuetoexpandbeyondcrimeorfirescenemonitoring.WhenBeyondVisualLineOfSight(BVLOS)operationsbecomemainstream,awholenewrangeofpublicsafetymissionswillopen.ExistingtechnologyisjustaboutreadytosupportinitialwidespreadBVLOSmissions;however,thebiggestbarrierhasbeenthestrictregulatoryenvironment.TheregulatoryenvironmentdiffersbetweencountriesandregionsandmanycountriesareatopposingspectrumsofadoptionofBVLOSasaconceptforpublicsafetywork,butnewregulationbreakthroughsareexpectedintheverynearfuture.AdoptionofmachinelearningtosupportBVLOSmodeswillservetoalignconcernsoversafetyofextended-range,autonomousflights.Page19COVID-19hasforcedarethinkingoftraditionalwaysofworking,andhasandforcedmanybusinessestorethinktheirbusinessmodels.Inthepublicsafetysector,thepressureofthepandemichasputasignificantstrainondailymissionsofpublicsafetyagencies.Howevernewtechnologiesarepromisingtoincreasetheefficiencyandeffectivenessoftheirdailymissionsandthestressofthepandemicislikelytospeeduptheiradoption.©2021OmdiaThermalcamerasforbodytemperatureandintrusionclassificationAIadoptionforthermalcameraimaginghasgainedmomentuminthelastcoupleofyears,andisexpectedtobecomeanindustrystandardthrough2024Page20©2021OmdiaThermalcamerasusedforbodytemperaturescreeningshaveemergedasanew(buttemporary)marketWiththeCOVID-19pandemicdisruptingtheglobaleconomy,businesseshavesearchedforalternativemeasurestogetbacktobusinessassafeaspossible.Oneofthesolutionshasbeenmeasuringthebodytemperatureofemployeesandcustomers.Thermalcamerasuppliershaveproducedinfraredsolutionsthatdetectelevatedskintemperatures.Thesesolutionsareparticularlypopularinairports,factories,retail,andgovernmentfacilities.Infraredthermographycandetectelevatedskintemperatures,whichmayindicatethepresenceofafever.Whenfollowedbyascreeningwithamedicaldevice,theuseofaninfraredcameraasanadjunctivediagnostictoolmayhelpcontainorlimitthespreadofviraldiseasessuchasbirdflu,swineflu,orCOVID-19.Researchhasshownthatthecorneroftheeye—theregionmediallyadjacenttotheinnercanthus—providesamoreaccurateestimateofcorebodytemperaturethanotherareasofskin.Thisisbecauseskinatthecanthiisthin(decreasinginsulatingeffects),lessexposedtoenvironmentalfactors,anddirectlyovermajorarteries,whichincreasebloodflowandheattransfer.Omdiaclassifiesthemarketforthermalcamerasforbodytemperatureasacompletelydifferentmarketthantheoneforperimetersecu