供给链预计习题

本文格式为Word版，下载可任意编辑——供给链预计习题2023-2023年我国社会消费品零售总额数据如下（单位：亿元）。月/年202320232023202320232023202320231977.51192.21602.21909.12288.52549.52662.12774.72892.51162.71491.51911.22213.52306.42538.42805.03942.31167.51533.31860.12130.92279.72403.12627.04941.31170.41548.71854.82100.52252.72356.82572.05962.21213.71585.41898.32108.22265.22364.02637.061005.71281.11639.71966.02164.72326.02428.82645.07963.81251.51623.61888.72102.52286.12380.32597.08959.81286.01637.11916.42104.42314.62410.92636.091023.31396.21756.02083.52239.62443.12604.32854.0101051.11444.11818.02148.32348.02536.02743.93029.0111102.01553.81935.22290.12454.92652.22781.53108.0121415.51932.22389.52848.62881.73131.43405.73680.0

（1）绘制时间序列线图，说明该序列的特点。

（2）利用分解预计法预计2023年各月份的社会消费品零售总额。1977.5977.511005.1510.972一月1.0363190.1712892.5178541026.7420.869二月0.9793035.6753942.32826.991048.3320.899三月0.9532974.9484941.33765.2161069.9230.880四月0.9352938.1075962.24811251091.5140.882五月0.9402975.05661005.76034.2361113.1050.904六月0.9593054.137963.86746.6491134.6960.849七月0.9242963.8648959.87678.4641156.2860.830八月0.9242982.07591023.39209.7811177.8770.869九月0.9813188.739101051.1105111001199.4680.876十月1.0103304.847111102121221211221.0590.902十一月1.0473449.663121415.5169861441242.6501.139十二月1.2644190.98

131192.215498.61691264.2400.943141162.716277.81961285.8310.904151167.517512.52251307.4220.893161170.418726.42561329.0130.881171213.720632.92891350.6040.899181281.123059.83241372.1940.934191251.523778.53611393.7850.898201286257204001415.3760.909

979899100101102103104105106107108

211396.229320.2221444.131770.2231553.835737.4241932.246372.8251602.240055261491.538779271533.341399.1281548.743363.6291585.445976.6301639.749191311623.650331.6321637.152387.23317565794834181861812351935.267732362389.586022371909.170636.7381911.272625.6391860.172543.9401854.874192411898.377830.342196682572431888.781214.1441916.484321.6452083.593757.5462148.398821.8472290.1107634.7482848.6136732.8492288.5112136.5502213.5110675512130.9108675.9522100.5109226532108.2111734.6542164.7116893.8552102.5115637.5562104.4117846.4572239.6127657.2582348136184592454.9144839.1602881.7172902612549.5155519.5622306.4142996.84411436.9674841458.5585291480.1485761501.7396251523.3306761544.9217291566.5117841588.1028411609.6939001631.2849611652.87510241674.46510891696.05611561717.64712251739.23812961760.82913691782.41914441804.01015211825.60116001847.19216811868.78317641890.37318491911.96419361933.5552025195573722091998.32723042023.91824012041.50925002063.10026012084.69127042106.28128092127.87229162149.46330252171.05431362192.64432492214.23533642235.82634812257.41736002279.00837212300.59838442322.1890.9720.9901.0501.2871.0520.9650.9790.9750.9851.0050.9820.9781.0351.0581.1131.3571.0711.0591.0191.0041.0161.0400.9880.9911.0661.0871.1461.4101.1211.0731.0220.9970.9911.0070.9680.9601.0111.0501.0871.2641.1080.993

143621.1

2252.7144172.82265.214723823261535162286.1153168.72314.6157392.82443.1168573.925361775202652.2188306.22279.76364656667686970712343.7802365.3712386.9622408.5522430.1432451.7342473.3252494.9162516.5063969

409642254356448946244761490050410.9730.9520.9490.9660.9410.9440.9881.0161.054723131.4225460.8732662.1194333.3742538.4187841.6752403.1180232.5762356.8179116.8772364182028782428.8189446.4792380.3188043.7802410.9192872812604.3210948.3822743.9224999.8832781.5230864.5843405.7286078.8852774.7235849.5862805241230872627228549882572226336892637234693902645238050912597236327922636242512932854265422943029284726953108295260963680353280

4656194948.511046676b=21.59a=983.56y=983.56+21.59x

5184532954765625577659296084624164006561672468897056722573967569774479218100828184648649883690259216

2995362538.0972559.6882581.2792602.8702624.4602646.0512667.6422689.2332710.8242732.4142754.0052775.5962797.1872818.7772840.3682861.9592883.5502905.1412926.7312948.3222969.9132991.5043013.0953034.6853056.276

1.2341.0400.9830.9230.8980.8930.9100.8850.8890.9530.9961.0021.2180.9840.9880.9180.8920.9080.9040.8810.8880.9541.0051.0241.204

40003700340031002800250022023900160013001000700020406080100120y=21.591x+983.56系列1

线性(系列1)

下面是一家物流企业过去18个月的营业额数据月份123456789营业额（万元）295283322355286379381431424月份101112131415161718营业额（万元）473470481449544601587644660

（1）用3期移动平均法预计第19个月的营业额。

（2）采用指数平滑法，分别用平滑系数a=0.3、a=0.4和a=0.5预计各月的营业额，分析预计误差，说明用哪一个平滑系数预计更适合？

123456789295295.00295.00295.000.000.000.00283295.00295.00295.0012.0012.0012.00322300.00291.40290.20289.0030.6031.8033.00355320.00300.58302.92305.5054.4252.0849.50286321.00316.91323.75330.2530.9137.7544.25379340.00307.63308.65308.1371.3770.3570.88381348.67329.04336.79343.5651.9644.2137.44431397.00344.63354.47362.2886.3776.5368.72424412.00370.54385.08396.6453.4638.9227.3610473442.67386.58400.65410.3286.4272.3511470455.67412.51429.59441.6657.4940.4112481474.67429.75445.75455.8351.2535.2513449466.67445.13459.85468.423.8710.8514544491.33446.29455.51458.7197.7188.4915601531.33475.60490.91501.35125.40110.0916587577.33513.22534.94551.1873.7852.0617644610.67535.36555.77569.09108.6488.2318660630.33567.95591.06606.5492.0568.94652.001087.69930.300.30.7060.4351.680.40.60

0.50.50700额业650营600550500450400350300月份25002468101214161820系列1系列2系列3系列4

62.6828.3425.1719.4285.2999.6535.8274.9153.46

827.87

45.99

某建材公司在作销售预计时，发现一个地区每年塑料的需求量和该地区新开工的工程项目数量有关，具体数据如表所示。试利用回归分析法预计2023年的需求量。时间19992000202320232023202320232023Y=-9.78+5.39x新开工项目数量1610392126241536塑料年需求量70502108015010090180198919901991199219931994199519961997

a=b=y=

130002340001200018000011000132000