全球磷肥展望课件

ChinaPhosphateFertilizersandCompoundsTradeFair-Shandong-October2008GlobalPhosphateOutlook2008-2009全球磷肥展望

MichelPrud’hommeIFA–FranceNon-for-profitorganizationrepresentingtheglobalfertilizerindustryandrelatedservices.非营利组织，代表全球肥料工业及相关服务530membercompaniesin87countries.

有530个会员单位，来自于87个国家IFA’smandate:

IFA的使命Promotethesustainableandresponsibleproductionoffertilizers.促进可持续的和负责任的肥料生产Fosteranopenbusinessandtradeenvironment.

培育开放的商业和贸易环境Supportthedevelopmentofasustainableandefficientuseofplantnutrients.

支持可持续的和高效的利用作物养分的开发InternationalFertilizerIndustryAssociation国际肥料工业协会1-WorldAgricultureSituation

世界农业形势2-FertilizerandFertilizerPhosphateDemand

肥料及肥料磷酸盐的需求3-PhosphateRockandPhosphoricAcidOutlook

磷矿和磷酸市场展望4–ProcessedPhosphatesOutlook

精细磷化工市场展望Content

内容WorldCerealProductionandUtilization全球谷物生产和消费趋势Source:FAO,July2008BilliontonnesWorldCerealStocks全球谷物库存Source:FAO,July2008MilliontonnesWorldFertilizerDemand2005–2012全球肥料需求MilliontonnesnutrientsSource:IFA,2008+2.6%p.a.over2007+2.9%p.a.over2007NP2O5K2OWorldPhosphateFertilizerDemand全球磷肥需求MtP2O5+5.0%+3.1%+1.6%+4.5%42.140.840.238.536.6Source:IFA,2008PhosphateNutrientRegionalDemand分地区磷肥需求2007to2009Source:IFA,20085MtP2O520072009+3%+2%+4%+6%+8%050100150200250200720082009201020112012EastAsiaOthersWestAsiaAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaEuropeandEECAWorldPhosphateRockCapability全球磷矿石产能MtproductSource:IFA,2008233189194202214242Half-YearPhosphateRockProductionandTradeMtrockBasedonIFAQuarterlySample磷矿石生产及贸易Source:IFA,2008Half-YearPhosphoricAcidProductionandTradeMtP2O5Source:IFA,2008BasedonIFAQuarterlySample磷酸生产及贸易MainPhosphoricAcidCapacityDevelopments主要磷酸产能变化Source:IFA,2008KtP2O5MoroccoGlobalPhosphoricAcidSupply/Demand全球磷酸供/需Source:IFA,2008MtP2O5DemandSupplyPotentialSurplusWorldProcessedPhosphatesProductionMtP2O5Source:IFA,2008BasedonIFAQuarterlySample全球主要工艺磷肥产量WorldProcessedPhosphatesTradeMtP2O5Source:IFA,2008BasedonIFAQuarterlySample全球工艺磷肥贸易GlobalPhosphateCapacityAdditions全球磷肥产能变化MtP2O5Source:IFA,2008WorldDAP:Supply/Demand全球DAP供/需MtP2O50510152020082009201020112012MaximumPotentialproduction13.915.914.416.0DAPconsumption:+3.3%p.a.Source:IFA,2008PhosphateMarketOutlook磷肥市场展望2008和2009年，全球肥料需求相对坚挺,

预计年均增长约3%

，全球磷肥需求预计增长2.6%,

主要是高浓度磷肥的增长.

增长主要来自于几个国家，如巴西、印度、美国，也许还有中国.2008年全球各磷肥产品品种的生产将会表现不同,贸易量将低于预测.相对于DAP较强劲的进口需求,尤其是印度的进口，全球磷酸、MAP，还有TSP的贸易量预计会下降.中国2008年的出口政策已经导致减少了中国MAP和DAP向国际市场的有效输出.2008年和2009年预计中国以外的MAP-DAP的供