美联储：2022年上半年美国货币政策报告

Foruseat11:00a.m.EDTJune17,2022

MonetaryPolicyrePort

June17,2022

BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem

LetteroftransmittaL

BoardofGovernorsofthe

FederalReserveSystem

Washington,D.C.,June17,2022

ThePresidentoftheSenate

TheSpeakeroftheHouseofRepresentatives

TheBoardofGovernorsispleasedtosubmititsMonetaryPolicyReportpursuanttosection2BoftheFederalReserveAct.

Sincerely,

JeromeH.Powell,Chair

StatementonLonger-rungoaLSandmonetaryPoLicyStrategy

AdoptedeffectiveJanuary24,2012;asreaffirmedeffectiveJanuary25,2022

TheFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)isfirmlycommittedtofulfillingitsstatutorymandatefromtheCongressofpromotingmaximumemployment,stableprices,andmoderatelong-terminterestrates.TheCommitteeseekstoexplainitsmonetarypolicydecisionstothepublicasclearlyaspossible.Suchclarityfacilitateswell-informeddecisionmakingbyhouseholdsandbusinesses,reduceseconomicandfinancialuncertainty,increasestheeffectivenessofmonetarypolicy,andenhancestransparencyandaccountability,whichareessentialinademocraticsociety.

Employment,inflation,andlong-terminterestratesfluctuateovertimeinresponsetoeconomicandfinancialdisturbances.Monetarypolicyplaysanimportantroleinstabilizingtheeconomyinresponsetothesedisturbances.TheCommittee’sprimarymeansofadjustingthestanceofmonetarypolicyisthroughchangesinthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrate.TheCommitteejudgesthatthelevelofthefederalfundsrateconsistentwithmaximumemploymentandpricestabilityoverthelongerrunhasdeclinedrelativetoitshistoricalaverage.Therefore,thefederalfundsrateislikelytobeconstrainedbyitseffectivelowerboundmorefrequentlythaninthepast.Owinginparttotheproximityofinterestratestotheeffectivelowerbound,theCommitteejudgesthatdownwardriskstoemploymentandinflationhaveincreased.TheCommitteeispreparedtouseitsfullrangeoftoolstoachieveitsmaximumemploymentandpricestabilitygoals.

Themaximumlevelofemploymentisabroad-basedandinclusivegoalthatisnotdirectlymeasurableandchangesovertimeowinglargelytononmonetaryfactorsthataffectthestructureanddynamicsofthelabormarket.Consequently,itwouldnotbeappropriatetospecifyafixedgoalforemployment;rather,theCommittee’spolicydecisionsmustbeinformedbyassessmentsoftheshortfallsofemploymentfromitsmaximumlevel,recognizingthatsuchassessmentsarenecessarilyuncertainandsubjecttorevision.TheCommitteeconsidersawiderangeofindicatorsinmakingtheseassessments.

Theinflationrateoverthelongerrunisprimarilydeterminedbymonetarypolicy,andhencetheCommitteehastheabilitytospecifyalonger-rungoalforinflation.TheCommitteereaffirmsitsjudgmentthatinflationattherateof2percent,asmeasuredbytheannualchangeinthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures,ismostconsistentoverthelongerrunwiththeFederalReserve’sstatutorymandate.TheCommitteejudgesthatlonger-terminflationexpectationsthatarewellanchoredat2percentfosterpricestabilityandmoderatelong-terminterestratesandenhancetheCommittee’sabilitytopromotemaximumemploymentinthefaceofsignificanteconomicdisturbances.Inordertoanchorlonger-terminflationexpectationsatthislevel,theCommitteeseekstoachieveinflationthataverages2percentovertime,andthereforejudgesthat,followingperiodswheninflationhasbeenrunningpersistentlybelow2percent,appropriatemonetarypolicywilllikelyaimtoachieveinflationmoderatelyabove2percentforsometime.

Monetarypolicyactionstendtoinfluenceeconomicactivity,employment,andpriceswithalag.Insettingmonetarypolicy,theCommitteeseeksovertimetomitigateshortfallsofemploymentfromtheCommittee’sassessmentofitsmaximumlevelanddeviationsofinflationfromitslonger-rungoal.Moreover,sustainablyachievingmaximumemploymentandpricestabilitydependsonastablefinancialsystem.Therefore,theCommittee’spolicydecisionsreflectitslonger-rungoals,itsmedium-termoutlook,anditsassessmentsofthebalanceofrisks,includingriskstothefinancialsystemthatcouldimpedetheattainmentoftheCommittee’sgoals.

TheCommittee’semploymentandinflationobjectivesaregenerallycomplementary.However,undercircumstancesinwhichtheCommitteejudgesthattheobjectivesarenotcomplementary,ittakesintoaccounttheemploymentshortfallsandinflationdeviationsandthepotentiallydifferenttimehorizonsoverwhichemploymentandinflationareprojectedtoreturntolevelsjudgedconsistentwithitsmandate.

TheCommitteeintendstoreviewtheseprinciplesandtomakeadjustmentsasappropriateatitsannualorganizationalmeetingeachJanuary,andtoundertakeroughlyevery5yearsathoroughpublicreviewofitsmonetarypolicystrategy,tools,andcommunicationpractices.

Contents

Summary 1

RecentEconomicandFinancialDevelopments 1

MonetaryPolicy 3

SpecialTopics 3

Part1:RecentEconomicandFinancialDevelopments 5

DomesticDevelopments 5

FinancialDevelopments 27

InternationalDevelopments 35

Part2:MonetaryPolicy 43

Part3:SummaryofEconomicProjections 51

Abbreviations 69

ListofBoxes

DevelopmentsinGlobalSupplyChains 8

DevelopmentsinEmploymentandEarningsacrossGroups 14

DevelopmentsRelatedtoFinancialStability 31

GlobalInflation 37

MonetaryPolicyinForeignEconomies 39

MonetaryPolicyRulesintheCurrentEnvironment 46

DevelopmentsintheFederalReserve’sBalanceSheetandMoneyMarkets 49

ForecastUncertainty 66

note:Thisreportreflectsinformationthatwaspubliclyavailableasof4p.m.EDTonJune15,2022.

Unlessotherwisestated,thetimeseriesinthefiguresextendthrough,fordailydata,June14,2022;formonthlydata,May2022;and,forquarterlydata,2022:Q1.Inbarcharts,exceptasnoted,thechangeforagivenperiodismeasuredtoitsfinalquarterfromthefinalquarteroftheprecedingperiod.

Forfigures23,36,and42,notethattheS&P/Case-ShillerU.S.NationalHomePriceIndex,theS&P500Index,andtheDowJonesBankIndexareproductsofS&PDowJonesIndicesLLCand/oritsaffiliatesandhavebeenlicensedforusebytheBoard.Copyright©2022S&PDowJonesIndicesLLC,adivisionofS&PGlobal,and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.Redistribution,reproduction,and/orphotocopyinginwholeorinpartareprohibitedwithoutwrittenpermissionofS&PDowJonesIndicesLLC.FormoreinformationonanyofS&PDowJonesIndicesLLC’sindices,pleasevisit

.

S&P®isaregisteredtrademarkofStandard&Poor’sFinancialServicesLLC,andDowJones®isaregisteredtrademarkofDowJonesTrademarkHoldingsLLC.NeitherS&PDowJonesIndicesLLC,DowJonesTrademarkHoldingsLLC,theiraffiliates,northeirthird-partylicensorsmakeanyrepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,astotheabilityofanyindextoaccuratelyrepresenttheassetclassormarketsectorthatitpurportstorepresent,andneitherS&PDowJonesIndicesLLC,DowJonesTrademarkHoldingsLLC,theiraffiliates,northeirthird-partylicensorsshallhaveanyliabilityforanyerrors,omissions,orinterruptionsofanyindexorthedataincludedtherein.

1

summary

Inthefirstpartoftheyear,inflationremainedwellabovetheFederalOpenMarketCommittee’s(FOMC)longer-runobjectiveof2percent,withsomeinflationmeasuresrisingtotheirhighestlevelsinmorethan

40years.Thesepricepressuresreflectsupplyanddemandimbalances,higherenergyandfoodprices,andbroaderpricepressures,includingthoseresultingfromanextremelytightlabormarket.Inthelabormarket,demandhasremainedstrong,andsupplyhasincreasedonlymodestly.Asaresult,theunemploymentratefellnoticeablybelowthemedianofFOMCparticipants’estimatesofitslonger-runnormallevel,andnominalwagescontinuedtoriserapidly.Althoughoveralleconomicactivityedgeddowninthefirstquarter,householdspendingandbusinessfixedinvestmentremainedstrong.Themostrecentindicatorssuggestthatprivatefixedinvestmentmaybemoderating,butconsumerspendingremainsstrong.

Inresponsetosustainedinflationarypressuresandastronglabormarket,theFOMChasbeenadjustingitspoliciesandcommunicationssincelastfall.AtitsMarchmeeting,theFOMCraisedthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateofftheeffectivelowerboundto¼to½percent.TheCommitteecontinuedtoraisethetargetrangeinMayandJune,bringingitto1½to1¾percentfollowingtheJunemeeting,andindicatedthatongoingincreasesarelikelytobeappropriate.TheCommitteeceasednetassetpurchasesinearlyMarchandbeganreducingitssecuritiesholdingsinJune.

TheCommitteeisacutelyawarethathighinflationimposessignificanthardship,especiallyonthoseleastabletomeetthehighercostsofessentials.TheCommittee’scommitmenttorestoringpricestability—whichisnecessaryforsustainingastronglabormarket—isunconditional.

RecentEconomicandFinancialDevelopments

Inflation.Consumerpriceinflation,asmeasuredbythe12-monthchangeinthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures(PCE),rosefrom5.8percentinDecember2021to6.3percentinApril,itshighestlevelsincetheearly1980sandwellabovetheFOMC’sobjectiveof2percent.Thisincreasewasdrivenbyanaccelerationofretailfoodandenergyprices,reflectingfurtherincreasesincommoditypricesduetoRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.The12-monthmeasureofinflationthatexcludesthevolatilefoodandenergycategories(so-calledcoreinflation)roseinitiallyandthenfellbackto4.9percentinApril,unchangedfromlastDecember.Three-monthmeasuresofcoreinflationhavesoftenedsinceDecemberbutremainfarabovelevelsconsistentwithpricestability.Measuresofnear-terminflationexpectationscontinuedtorisemarkedly,whilelonger-termexpectationsmovedupbyless.

Thelabormarket.Demandforlaborcontinuedtooutstripavailablesupplyacrossmanypartsoftheeconomy,andnominalwagescontinuedtoincreaseatarobustpace.Whilelabordemandremainedverystrong,laborsupplyincreasedonlymodestly.Asaresult,thelabormarkettightenedfurtherbetweenDecemberandMay,withjobgainsaveraging488,000permonthandtheunemploymentratefallingfrom3.9percentto3.6percent—justabovethebottomofitsrangeoverthepast50years.

Economicactivity.Realgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isreportedtohavesurgedata6.9percentannualrateinthefourthquarterof2021andthentohavedeclinedata1.5percentannualrateinthefirstquarter.Thelargeswingsingrowthratesreflectedfluctuationsinthevolatileexpenditurecategoriesofnet

2SUMMARy

exportsandinventoryinvestment.Abstractingfromthesevolatilecomponents,growthinprivatedomesticfinaldemand(consumerspendingplusresidentialandbusinessfixedinvestment—ameasurethattendstobemorestableandbetterreflectsthestrengthofoveralleconomicactivity)wasstronginthefirstquarter,supportedbysomeunwindingofsupplybottlenecksandafurtherreopeningoftheeconomy.Themostrecentindicatorssuggestthatprivatefixedinvestmentmaybemoderating,butconsumerspendingremainsstrong.Asaresult,realGDPappearsontracktorisemoderatelyinthesecondquarter.

Financialconditions.Financialconditionshavetightenedsignificantlythisyear.Theexpectedpathofthefederalfundsrateoverthenextfewyearsshiftedupsubstantially,andyieldsonnominalTreasurysecuritiesacrossmaturitieshaverisenconsiderablysincelateFebruaryamidsustainedinflationarypressuresandassociatedexpectationsforfurthermonetarypolicytightening.Equitypriceswerevolatileanddeclinedsharply,onnet,whilecorporatebondyieldsincreasedsubstantiallyandspreadsincreasednotably,partlyreflectingsomeconcernsaboutthefuturecorporatecreditoutlook.Mortgageratesalsorosesharply.Inturn,tighterfinancialconditionsmayhavebeguntoweighonsomefinancingactivity.Onthebusinessside,nonfinancialcorporatebondissuancewassolidinthefirstquarterbutslowedsomewhatinAprilandMay,withspeculative-gradebondissuancebeingparticularly

weak.Thatsaid,thegrowthofbankloanstobusinessespickedup,andbusinesscreditqualityhasremainedstrongthusfar.Forhouseholds,mortgageoriginationsdeclinedmaterially.Nevertheless,mortgagecreditremainedbroadlyavailableforawiderangeofpotentialborrowers.Forotherconsumerloans(suchasautoloansandcreditcards),creditstandardseasedsomewhatfurtherorchangedlittle,andcreditoutstandinggrewbriskly.

Financialstability.Despiteexperiencing

aseriesofadverseshocks—higher-than-

expectedinflation,theongoingsupplydisruptionsrelatedtoCOVID-19,andRussia’sinvasionofUkraine—thefinancialsystemhasbeenresilient,thoughportionsofthecommoditiesmarketstemporarilyexperiencedelevatedlevelsofstress.Thedropinequitypricesandrisingbondspreadssuggestthatvaluationpressuresincorporatesecuritiesmarketshaveeasedsomefromtheirpreviouslyelevatedlevels,butrealestatepriceshaverisenfurtherthisyear.Whilebusinessandhouseholddebthasbeengrowingsolidly,theratioofcredittoGDPhasdecreasedtonearpre-pandemiclevelsandmostindicatorsofcreditqualityremainedrobust,suggestingthatvulnerabilitiesfromnonfinancialleveragearemoderate.Largebankcapitalratiosdippedinthefirstquarter,butoverallleverageinthefinancialsectorappearsmoderateandlittlechangedthisyear.Recentstrainsexperiencedinmarketsforstablecoins—digitalassetsthataimtomaintainastablevaluerelativetoanationalcurrencyorotherreferenceassets—andotherdigitalassetshavehighlightedthestructuralfragilitiesinthatrapidlygrowingsector.Afewsignsoffundingpressuresemergedamidthegeopoliticaltensions,particularlyincommoditiesmarkets.However,broadfundingmarketsprovedresilient,andwithdirectexposuresofU.S.financialinstitutionstoRussiaandUkrainebeingsmall,financialspillovershavebeenlimitedtodate.

Internationaldevelopments.Economicactivityhascontinuedtorecoverinmanyforeigneconomies,albeitwithnewsignificantheadwindsfromRussia’sinvasionofUkraineandCOVIDlockdownsinChina.Theseheadwindshave,onnet,pushedcommoditypriceshigher,worsenedsupplydisruptions,andloweredhouseholdandbusinessconfidence,thusdampingthereboundinforeigneconomicactivity.AsintheUnitedStates,consumerpriceinflationabroadishighandhascontinuedtoriseinmanyeconomies,boostedbyhigherenergy,food,andothercommoditypricesaswellbysupplychainconstraints.Inresponse,manyforeigncentralbankshave

MONETARyPOLICyREPORT:JUNE20223

raisedpolicyrates,andsomehavestartedtoreducethesizeoftheirbalancesheets.

Foreignfinancialconditionshavetightenednotablysincethebeginningoftheyear,inpartreflectingthetighteninginforeignmonetarypolicyandconcernsaboutpersistentlyhighinflation.Sovereignbondyieldsinmanyadvancedforeigneconomiesrose.Foreignriskyassetpricesdeclined,alsodrivenbydownsideriskstothegrowthoutlookamidthelockdownsinChinaandRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.Thetrade-weightedvalueofthedollarappreciatednotably.

MonetaryPolicy

Inresponsetosignificantongoinginflationpressuresandthetighteninglabormarket,theCommitteehasbeenadjustingitspoliciesandcommunicationssincelastfall.TheCommitteewounddownnetpurchasesofsecuritiesandbeganreducingthosesecuritiesholdingsmorerapidlythanexpected,andalsoinitiatedaswiftincreaseininterestrates.AdjustmentstobothinterestratesandthebalancesheetareplayingaroleinfirmingthestanceofmonetarypolicyinsupportoftheCommittee’smaximum-employmentandprice-stabilitygoals.

Interestratepolicy.InMarch,afterholdingthefederalfundsratenearzerosincetheonsetofthepandemic,theFOMCraisedthetargetrangeforthatrateto¼to½percent.TheCommitteeraisedthetargetrangeagaininMayandJune,bringingittothecurrentrangeof1½to1¾percent,andconveyeditsanticipationthatongoingincreasesinthetargetrangewillbeappropriate.

Balancesheetpolicy.TheFederalReservebeganreducingitsmonthlynetassetpurchaseslastNovemberandacceleratedthereductionsinDecember,bringingnetpurchasestoanendinearlyMarch.InJanuary,theFOMCissuedasetofprinciplesregardingitsplannedapproachforsignificantlyreducingthesizeoftheFederalReserve’sbalancesheet.Consistent

withthoseprinciples,theCommitteeannouncedinMayitsspecificplansforsignificantlyreducingitssecuritiesholdingsandthatthesereductionswouldbeginon

June1.1

TheCommitteeacutelyrecognizesthesignificanthardshipcausedbyelevatedinflation,especiallyonthoseleastabletomeetthehighercostsofessentials.TheCommitteeisstronglycommittedtorestoringpricestability,whichisnecessaryforsustainingastronglabormarket.

SpecialTopics

Labormarketdisparities.Thelabormarketrecoveryoverthepastyearandahalfhasbeenrobustandwidespreadasthelabormarketeffectsofthepandemichaveeased,withparticularlystrongimprovementamonggroupsthathadsufferedthemost.Asaresult,employmentandearningsofnearlyallmajordemographicgroupsarenearorabovetheirlevelsbeforethepandemic,andemploymentratesareagainnearmultidecadehighs.However,thereremainnotabledifferencesinemploymentandearningsacrossgroupsthatpredatethepandemic.

Developmentsinglobalsupplychains.Supplychainbottlenecksremainamajorimpedimentfordomesticandforeignfirms.WhileU.S.manufacturershavebeenrecordingsolidoutputgrowthformorethanayear,orderbacklogsanddeliverytimesremainhigh,andproducerpriceshaverisenrapidly.Furtherriskstoglobalsupplychainsabound.InChina,COVID-19lockdownsdrovethelargestmonthlydeclinesinindustrialproductiontheresinceearly2020whilealsodisruptinginternalandinternationalfreighttransportation.Inaddition,thewarinUkrainecontinuestoput

1.SeetheMay4,2022,pressreleaseregardingthePlansforReducingtheSizeoftheFederalReserve’sBalanceSheet,availableat

https://www.federalreserve.

gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220504b

.htm.

4SUMMARy

upwardpressureonenergyandfoodpricesandhasraisedtheriskofdisruptioninthesupplyofinputstosomemanufacturingindustries.

Monetarypolicyrules.Simplemonetarypolicyrules,whichrelateapolicyinterestratetoasmallnumberofothereconomicvariables,canprovideusefulguidancetopolicymakers.Manysimplepolicyrulesprescribedstronglynegativevaluesforthefederalfundsrateduringthepandemic-drivenrecession.

WithinflationrunningwellinexcessoftheCommittee’s2percentlonger-runobjective,astrongU.S.economy,andtightlabormarketconditions,thesimplemonetarypolicyrulesconsideredherecallforraisingthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsratesignificantly.

Globalinflation.Inflationabroadroserapidlyoverthepastyear,reflectingsoaringfoodandcommodityprices,pandemic-relatedsupplydisruptions,anddemandimbalancesbetweengoodsandservices.ThepricepressureshavebeenamplifiedbythewarinUkraineandCOVID-19lockdownsinChina.Althoughtherecentinflationsurgewasconcentratedinvolatilecomponents,suchasfoodandenergy,priceincreaseshavebroadenedtocoregoodsandservices.

Globalmonetarypolicy.Withinflationrisingsharplyacrosstheglobe,manycentral

bankshavetightenedmonetarypolicy.Policytighteningstartedlastyearassomeemergingmarketcentralbanks,particularlythoseinLatinAmerica,wereconcernedthatsharpincreasesininflationcouldbecomeentrenchedininflationexpectations.Sincefall2021,manycentralbanksintheadvancedforeigneconomieshavealsostartedtighteningmonetarypolicyorareexpectedtodososoon,andseveralcentralbanksthathadexpandedtheirbalancesheetsoverthepasttwoyearsarenowallowingthemtoshrink.

DevelopmentsintheFederalReserve’sbalancesheet.Followingtheconclusionofnetassetpurchases,thebalancesheetremainedstableataround$9trillion.Alongsidetheremovalofpolicyaccommodation—throughactualandexpectedincreasesinthepolicyrate—plansforshrinkingthesizeofthebalancesheetwereannouncedinMayandwereinitiatedinJune.Despitethesizeofthebalancesheetremainingsteady,reservebalancesfell,inlargepartbecauseofincreasinglyelevatedtake-upattheovernightreverserepurchaseagreement(ONRRP)facility,whichreachedarecordhighof$2.2trillion.Inanenvironmentofampleliquidity,limitedTreasurybillsupply,andlowrepurchaseagreementrates,theONRRPfacilitycontinuedtoserveitsintendedpurposeofhelpingtoprovideafloorundershort-terminterestratesandtosupporteffectiveimplementationofmonetarypolicy.

5

Part1

reCenteConomiCandfinanCiaLdeveLoPments

DomesticDevelopments

Inflationcontinuedtorunhigh...

Aftersurging5.8percentover2021—thelargestincreasesince1981—thepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures(PCE)continuedtopostnotableincreasessofarthisyear,andthechangeoverthe12monthsendinginAprilstoodat6.3percent(figure1).ThispaceiswellabovetheFOMC’slonger-runobjectiveof2percent.

...reflectingfurtherlargeincreasesinfoodandenergyprices...

Grocerypricesincreasedataveryrapidpaceof10percentoverthe12monthsendinginApril,morethan4percentagepointsfasterthanoverthe12monthsendinginDecemberandthehighestreadingsince1981(figure2).Foodcommodityprices(suchaswheatandcorn),whichhadalreadyincreasedlastyear,haverisenfurthersinceRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.Atthesametime,highfuelcosts,supplychainbottlenecks,andhighwagegrowthhavealsopushedupprocessing,packaging,andtransportationcostsforfood.

ThePCEpriceindexforenergyincreased

30percentoverthe12monthsendinginApril,

2.Personalconsumptionexpenditurespriceindexes

1.Changeinthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures

Percentchangefrom

Monthly

yearearlier

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

Trimmedmean

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

ExcludingfoodTotalandenergy

1.0.50

201420152016201720182019202020212022

NOTE:ThedataextendthroughApril2022.

SOURCE:Fortrimmedmean,FederalReserveBankofDallas;forallelse,BureauofEconomicAnalysis;allviaHaverAnalytics.

Percentchangefrom

yearearlier

Percentchangefrom

yearearlier

60

50

40

30

20

10

+

0

_

10

20

Foodand

beverages

Energy

20182019202020212022

12

10

8

6

4

2

+

0

_

2

4

Monthly

yearearlier

Percentchangefrom

8

6

Housing

services

4

Services

2

exenergy

andhousing

+

0

_

Goodsexfood,

energy

beverages,and2

2018

2019

2020

2022

2021

NOTE:ThedataaremonthlyandextendthroughApril2022.

SOURCE:BureauofEconomicAnalysisviaHaverAnalytics.

NOTE:ThedataextendthroughApril2022.

SOURCE:BureauofEconomicAnalysisviaHaverAnalytics.

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

24-month-ahead

futurescontracts

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

Brentspotprice

6PART1:RECENTECONOMICANDFINANCIALDEvELOPMENTS

3.Spotandfuturespricesforcrudeoil

per

barrel

Dollars

Weekly

160

200720102013201620192022

NOTE:ThedataareweeklyaveragesofdailydataandextendthroughJune10,2022.

SOURCE:ICEBrentFuturesviaBloomberg.

4.Spotpricesforcommodities

Weekly

WeekendingJanuary3,2014=100

Industrialmetals

Agriculture

andlivestock

201420152016201720182019202020212022

NOTE:ThedataareweeklyaveragesofdailydataandextendthroughJune10,2022.

SOURCE:Forindustrialmetals,S&PGSCIIndustrialMetalsIndexSpot;foragricultureandlivestock,S&PGSCIAg