gpbullhound-2022年第二季度软件洞察（英）

sectorupdateQualitativeinsightsintobroaderSoftwaretrendsandpublicandprivatevaluationsacrossthetransactionspectrum,andrImportantdisclosuresappearattheendofthisreportGPBullhoundCorporateFinanceLtdandGPBullhoundAssetManagementLimitedareauthorisedandregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthorityGPBullhoundIncisamemberofFINRAGPBullhoundHongKongLimitedisauthorisedandregulatedbytheSecurities&FuturesCommissionGPBullhoundLuxembourgSàrlisauthorisedasanAIFMinLuxembourgbytheCommissiondeSurveillanceduSecteurFinancierTakeawaysTakeawaysTHEV工EWQ2SoftwarePerspectivesfromGPBullhoundCONTINUOUSDEPLOYMENT-AS-A-SERVICEUSAGE-BASEDPRICINGISTAKINGOVEROFCOMPLIANCEDISCOVERED▪Deploymenthasbecomeacostlybottleneckforsoftwareproviders▪Theneedforcheapandend-to-enddeploymentoutsourcinghaspresenteditselfasaServicesolutionsarefillingthegapinthemarket▪Enterprisesoftwarebudgetsareshrinkingduetothecurrentmarketturbulence▪Usage-basedpricingisreplacingseat-basedandsubscription-basedmodels▪Adoptionofusage-basedmodelsisgrowingrapidlyamongtechgiants▪Rustestablisheditselfasamulti-paradigm,all-purposeprogramminglanguage▪Rusthasrecentlyexperiencedasharpuptickinpopularityduetoitssimplicity▪BigtechcompaniesarerapidlydeployingRustduetoitsbroaduse-cases▪Continuoustechnologyadoptionhascreatedanewwebofcomplianceissuestinuoussoftwaremonitoringlaws▪Continuouscyber-monitoringplatformshaveattractedprivatemarketinvestors▪Thecurrentmarkethasharshlyre-evaluatedunprofitablesoftwarecompanies▪Profitabilitybecameamuchmorerealisticvaluationmetricforpublicmarkets▪IndustryleaderVCsareadvisingsoftwarecompaniestofocusonprofitabilityDBYTheusage-basedpricingmovementistakingDBYTheusage-basedpricingmovementistakingoverSaaS▪Usage-basedpricingmodelshaveonceagainbecomethepreferredoptionforcompaniesgivenrevisedsoftwarespendingbudgetsduetothecurrenteconomicclimate.Shrinkingsoftwarespendingbudgetshavemaderesourceplanningmorecautiousthanusual.CompaniesprefertopayaccordinglywiththeextractedvaluefromaSaaStoolratherthanpayingafixedsubscriptionfee▪Usage-basedpricingisamodelwhereclientspayforaSaaStoolaccordingtotheirmeasuredconsumption.Consumptionmetricsareusuallyalignedwiththevalueextractedbytheclientutilisingthetool.Usage-basedpricinghasprovenitselfintheSaaSecosystemandhasreplacedmoretraditionalfixed-subscriptionandseat-basedmodels▪MajorSaaScompanieslikeAWSandSnowflakeareofferingusage-basedpricingandareshiftingtherelationshipbetweensoftwareprovidersandtheircustomersfromunfairsubscriptionmodelstowardequitablevalueexchanges▪Usage-basedmodelscanallowclientstostartproductutilisationatlowercosts,limitingthestigmaaroundexpensivelaunchcosts.Additionally,usage-basedmodelscanexpandTAMforSaaSprovidersbybreakingceilingcaps,astheproductcanbeutilisedatanyscaleTakeawaysGPBULLHOUND’SSECTORTAKEAWAYSCurrentsoftwareperspectivesfromGPBullhoundSelecttransactionsContinuousDeployment-as-aSelecttransactions▪Large-scaledeploymentshavealwaysbeenasignificantlytaskingmissionontopofsoftwaredevelopment.Multipleplatformintegrationshiddencosts,professionalplanningrequirements,andITinfrastructurechallengesaresomeoftheobstaclesthatcompaniesfacewhenundertakingdeploymentprojects▪Intoday’sSaaSecosystem,deploymenthasalsobecomeapainfultaskatsmallerscalesduetotimeandresourceconstraintsthatarefacedmorecommonlyinthelowertiersofthesectorAsaresponse,companieslikeArmoryarebringingContinuousDeployment-as-a-Servicesolutionstothemarketbyundertakingalllevelsofdeploymentonbehalfoftheirclientsatreasonablecosts.Armorycanactasastandaloneproductforcloud-firstcompanies,enablingend-to-enddeploymentefficiency DBYSources:Infoworld,SDTimes,TechCrunch,WallStreetJournal,VentureBeat(asof30June2022)Takeaways工NVESTMENTBYdVThenewcostofcompliance▪ContinuousadoptionofnewenterprisetechnologyTakeaways工NVESTMENTBYdVThenewcostofcompliance▪Continuousadoptionofnewenterprisetechnologyhasbeenfollowedbyhundredsofnewcybercomplianceregulationscreatingawebofsecuritystandardstocombatnewsecuritythreatsonlocalscalesandglobally▪Asaresponse,regulatorsaretighteninglawsbycreatingcontinuousmonitoringrequirementsasopposedtotraditionalcompliancecycles.Thecomplexityandaccelerationofnewregulationshasmadetheeffectivenessoftacticalauditmute.Followingtheregulatorytrends,theneedfor24/7security-andcompliance-monitoringSaaShasbecomeareality▪CompaniessuchasA-LIGN,SecurityCompass,Coalfire,andothershavecreatedsoftwareplatformsthatallowcontinuousmonitoringofacompanyssecurityandcomplianceprofileallowingcompaniestorelievetheirITbudgetsandfocusonotherprojects▪Theneedforcybersecurityservicesandmonitoringplatformshasalsoattractedprivatemarketinvestors.BothA-LIGN(WarburgPincus)andCoalfire(ApaxPartners)arebackedbylargeprivateequityplatforms.Otherprivateequity-backedplatformsincludeAlertLogic(WCAS),eSentire(WarburgPincus),Optiv(KKR),Presidio(BCPartners),Rackspace(Apollo),SecurityCompass(FTVCapital)工NVESTMENTBYdIV工NVESTMENTBYdIVTakeawaysGPBULLHOUND’SSECTORTAKEAWAYSCurrentsoftwareperspectivesfromGPBullhoundSelecttransactionsSelecttransactions▪Rustisarelativelyyoungprogramminglanguagethatfirstappearedin2010buthasrecentlyexperiencedasharp▪Code-sharingwebsiteGitHubsaysRustwasthesecondfastest-growinglanguageontheplatformsince2019,showing▪Rusthasbroaduse-casesacrossapplicationdevelopmentanddatasciencesimilartoPython,withpremierecompanieslikeAmazon,Discord,Dropbox,Figma,MicrosoftandMozilladeployingthelanguageintotheirplatformsSources:A-LIGN,CapitalIQ,CareerKarma,Gartner,ISC2,Nature,Tiobe,Pitchbook,PRNewswire(asof30June2022)TakeawaysTakeawaysTakeawaysTakeawaysGPBULLHOUND’SSECTORTAKEAWAYSCurrentsoftwareperspectivesfromGPBullhoundSelecttransactionsityreSelecttransactions▪Thecurrentmarketclimatehasbroughtdownhigh-flyinggrowth-focusedsoftwarecompaniesasthedownturnbecameareality.Incontrasttotheoldinvestortestament,profitabilityhasbecomeamuchmorerealisticmetricforpublicandprivatemarketvaluationsD▪InQ12022,Bannouncedthatithadgained11,600netnewcustomers,whichwasitsDIPOandaround3,500morethanthecompany’spriorbestquarter.However,thestockwasnotshieldedbytheturngivenitsweakprofitabilitymetricsandwasdownmorethaninQ▪ThesharepriceperformancebetweenprofitableandunprofitablesoftwarebusinesseshasbecomedrasticallydifferentwithunprofitableonesbeingdownaroundsinceQ1,whileprofitableonesbeingdownaround2%inthesametimeperiod▪Onagrowth-adjustedbasis,lookingathowmanypointsofEV/Revenuemultiplesareawardedbyinvestorsperpercentagepointofgrowth,bothprofitableandunprofitablesoftwarecompanieswerevaluedsimilarlyatthepeaksof2021.However,withthecurrentmarketclimate,thesamegrowth-adjustedanalysisshowsthatinvestorsvaluewthalmostlesswhencomparedtoAlthoughinvestorselectivityhassignificantlyincreaseditisatimeforunprofitablesoftwarecompaniestoprovetheirbusinessmodelsbybecomingprofitable▪Focusonprofitabilityisalsoabigemphasisintheprivatemarkets.SeasonedSaaSinvestor,BatteryVentures,hasreleasedtheirquarterlyreport,"TheCloudQuarterly:AFounder'sAlmanac",mainlyadvisingfounderstofocusontheprofitabilitycomponentofthe“Ruleof40”matrixduringtheseunprecedentedtimes,whenlayoffshavebecomemorecommonthaneverSources:BatteryVentures,BusinessInsider,CNBC,FinancialTimes,HGCapital,TechCrunch,WallStreetJournal(asof30June2022)ACQUIREDBYINVESTMENTBYACQUIREDBYINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYInvestmentBankingACQUIREDBYACQUIREDBYACQUISITIONANDHINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYACQUIREDBYINVESTMENTBYACQUIREDBYINVESTMENTBYACQUIREDBYINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYInvestmentBankingACQUIREDBYACQUIREDBYACQUISITIONANDHINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYACQUIREDBYINVESTMENTBYIVINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYIVINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYInvestmentManagementINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYINVESTMENTBYIVEURONEXTIPOTakeawaysALEADINGTECHNOLOGYADVISORYANDINVESTMENTFIRM,PROVIDINGTRANSACTIONADVICEANDCAPITALGPBullhound’srecentSoftwareactivityMERGERMERGERANDTBYACQUIREDACQUIREDBYINVESTMENTINVESTMENTBYIVINVESTMENTINVESTMENTBYCEOcommentarySelecteCEOcommentarySelecteDatedprivatefinaLeadinvestor(s)ncingsIssuerIssuerdescriptionAmount($m)sProviderofunifiedaccessorchestrationandapplicationsecuritysoftwareroviderofsourcingpayrollandtalentmanagementsoftwarepointofsaleandcustomerengagementsoftwareProviderofacloud-basedpayroll,benefits,andhumanresourcemanagementsoftwaresuiteProviderofaHRmanagementandIToperationssoftwareservicesoftwareforengineeringandDevOpsteamsinteractivevisualisation,andmetricanalyticssoftwareDeveloperandoperatorofanindependentpaymentplatformfordigitalcontentmonetisationrendsNOTABLESOFTWAREM&ADEALS&PRIVATEFINANCINGSNotabletransactionsfromQ22022SelecteDatedM&AtransBuyeractionsTargetTargetdescriptionEV($m)EV/LTMReventalhealth,andlearningmanagementsoftwareProviderofconnectedhealthcaresoftware,systemsforfacilities,energy,safety,andITassetmanagement-sales,andothercommunicationssoftwareapplicationsoftwaretomiddle-marketcompanies-ambulatorycareservices,carehomes,andtherapists-atoryandcompliancesoftwareintheareasofsecurity,cloudastructureandmoreSources:CapitalIQandMergerMarket(asof30June2022),GPBullhoundintelligencerendsrendsGLOBALSOFTWARETRANSACTIONTRENDSGlobaldealmakingexperiencespullbackM&A/buyoutactivitycoolsafterhotstreak$300B$250B$200B$150B$100BB0MM&AVolumeBuyoutVolumeM&AdealsBuyoutdeals000400002000SimilarstoryforprivateplacementsBBB50BBBBB0MCapitalinvested($bn)Volume4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,00000MajorityofM&A/buyoutstookplaceintheU.S.andEurope%Privateplacementsrelativelystableacrossregions%US&CanadaEuropeAsiaOtherUS&CanadaEuropeAsiaOtherSource:Pitchbook(asof30June2022)Note:DataincludesallSaaSM&AandprivateplacementdealsasdefinedbyPitchbookregardlessofgeography;”Other”includesAfrica,Oceania,South/CentralAmerica,andtheMiddleEastAsiaOther00rends00rendsIPOLANDSCAPERecessionconcerns,broadsell-offsuppressIPOactivity▪SoftwarecompaniesoptedtorefrainfromgoingpublicinQ22022,acontinuationofQ12022’ssuppressedactivity▪Ongoinggeopoliticalconflictandrecessionfearsfueledbyheightenedinflationandhawkishcentralbankactivityfrightenedinvestorsandledtoabroadmarketsell-off,withtheNASDAQendingH12022down30%andofficiallyinbearmarketterritory▪High-calibercompanieshavestillbeenabletoraiseprivatefundingdespiteinvestorstighteningpursestrings,promptingthemtowaitouttheturbulenceandgopublicwhenmarketsareconducivetomoreattractivevaluationsSoftwareIPOsbyquarter98855432Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q22CompanyOverviewProviderofanall-in-onecollaborationplatformdesignedtodemocratisesoftwarecreationDeveloperofaweb-scaleplatformdesignedtosimplifythewaycompaniesprotect,manageandextractvaluefromtheirdataDeveloperofanenterprisesoftwareapplicationfordatawarehousinganddatalakesDeveloperofaninstantmessaging/VoIPplatformforfriends,colleagues,andcommunitiesDeveloperofanapplicationforon-demanddeliveryProviderofanapplicationforinteractivedataanalysis,enterprise-classanalytics,datadiscoveryandsalesperformanceanalysisOperatorofasocialnetworkplatformdesignedforpeopletodiveintoanythingthroughexperiencesbuiltaroundtheirinterestsProviderofanemployeemanagementplatformintendedtohelpeliminatetheadministrativeworkinacompanyDeveloperofcloud-basedsoftwaredesignedtoacceleratethehomeandcommercialserviceindustriesSources:CapitalIQ,Pitchbook(asof30June2022)Note:SoftwareIPOdatagraphbasedoffpreviousGPBullhoundreportsFebruary/March2021:ThoughSaaSvaluationsarestillFebruary/March2021:ThoughSaaSvaluationsarestillsignificantlyabovehistoricalwUSpresidentialadministrationinflationconcernsandrisinginterestratescontributedtoamodestpull-backoftheSaaSIndexMarchAfterabriefinitialselloffSaaSstocksenjoyedsignificantappreciationthankstotheforceddigitisationoftheworldcausedbythepandemicDecember2018:TradewarwithChinaSaaSstocksPubliccompanyanalysesREVENUEMULTIPLETRENDS–LASTFIVEYEARSGPBullhoundSaaSindexvaluationsContinuedSaaSsell-off–valuationsdroppedbelowthefive-yearmean,butwithagreaterdisparitybetweenhigh-andlow-growthSaaSvaluationsAsof30June,theMediumGrowthSaaSIndexistradingat6.1xnext12-monthrevenues,whichis29.2%lessthantheHighGrowthNovember2021-19Omicronvariant,geopoliticaltensionUkraine),ongoingglobalsupplychainissuesandhawkishmonetarypolicy,havetriggeredassmarketsandtbroughttechvaluationsbelowthefive-yearaverageMedian:7.2xMedian:5.7xMedian:3.1xJun'14Jun'14Jun'15Jun'16Jun'17Jun'18Jun'19GPBSaaSIndex-EV/NTMRevenuesHighGrowthMediumGrowthLowGrowthSources:CapitalIQandWallStreetJournal(asof30JuneNote:HighGrowth:>40%,MediumGrowth:15-40%,LowGrowth<15%PubliccompanyanalysesPubliccompanyanalysesGPBULLHOUNDSAASINDEXPERFORMANCESell-offcontinuestoimpactsectorperformance70%31/05/202210/06/202220/06/202230/06/2022 S&P500NASDAQCompositeGPBMasterSaaSIndex-IndexValue31/12/202131/01/202228/02/202231/03/202230/04/202231/05/202230/06/2022 S&P500NASDAQCompositeGPBMasterSaaSIndex-IndexValueSources:CapitalIQ(asof30June2022)50%31/03/202230/04/202231/05/202230/06/2022 S&P500NASDAQCompositeGPBMasterSaaSIndex-IndexValue40%30/06/202130/09/202131/12/202131/03/202230/06/2022 S&P500NASDAQCompositeGPBMasterSaaSIndex-IndexValuePubliccompanyanalysesPubliccompanyanalysesBLICSAASMETRICBENCHMARKINGKeymetricsforSaaSinvestorsRevenueYoYgrowth(1)%%37%36%35%33%%%17%Paybackperiod(2)3.8Freecashflowmargin(3)%40%37%115%Sources:CapitalIQ,companySECfilings,andGPBullhoundestimates(asof30Jun2022);Note:1CY22E/CY21A;2(S&MLTMJun.2021/((LTMJun.2022rev.–LTMJun2021rev.)*GM%))/12;3LTMJun.2022operatingcashflow/LTMJun.2022revenue;4Asstatedincompanyfilings&earningsreleasesclassVerygoodExceptionalclassVerygoodExceptionalGoodPubliccompanyanalysesBLICSAASMETRICBENCHMARKINGGPBullhoundSaaSindex–netdollarretention-Median:125%SnowflakeUnityDatadogCloudflareTwilioOktaAsanaDocuSignSources:CompanySECfilingsandGPBullhoundresearch(asof30June2022)GPBullhoundNetDollarRetentionRanges:Goodas100%-110%,Verygoodas110%-120%,Best-in-classas120-130%,andExceptionalas>130%VeevaServiceNowEV/NTMRevenuePublicEV/NTMRevenuePubliccompanyanalysesBLICSAASMETRICBENCHMARKINGRetentionisthemostimportantdeterminantofvaluationWeexaminedtheimpactofretentiononvaluationbycreatinga‘GPBSaaSScore’,definedasrevenuegrowth+FCFmargin+netdollarretention.WeobservethatcompanieswithhigherretentionaretradingatmoreattractivevaluationsinpublicmarketsDDatadogSnowflakeCloudflareVeevaOkta280%GPBullhoundSaaSScoreSources:CapitalIQandcompanySECfilings(asof30June2022)2021unleveredFCFmargin%COUPLVCZMDOCURNGCRMEMIMESMCRTPCORPWSCWDAYDDOGAPPFHCPLEMONBMBLPAYCFROGSUMOWKPDDVSEMRCWANNEWRWIXTWOUAYXPCTYZUOEVBGMDBCDAYEGHTQTWOSPSCECOMFAASHOPGHTYEXTPING2021unleveredFCFmargin%COUPLVCZMDOCURNGCRMEMIMESMCRTPCORPWSCWDAYDDOGAPPFHCPLEMONBMBLPAYCFROGSUMOWKPDDVSEMRCWANNEWRWIXTWOUAYXPCTYZUOEVBGMDBCDAYEGHTQTWOSPSCECOMFAASHOPGHTYEXTPINGSOWAMPLSNOWDOTDSAPBCOVEMIS TIETORuleof40%lineSCWXPubliccompanyanalysesREVENUEGROWTHVS.PROFITABILITYOFGPBULLHOUNDSAASINDEXCONSTITUENTSRuleof40%–PublicSaaSOKTAQLYSBOXAVSTNOW0.0%2022/21revenuegrowth%Sources:CapitalIQ(asof30June2022)2022EV/revenueMarketperformersMarketoutperformersMarketunderperformersPubliccompanyanalyses2022EV/revenueMarketperformersMarketoutperformersMarketunderperformersPubliccompanyanalysesCOMPANIESHIGHERONTHERULEOF40%SCALEAREGENERALLYVALUEDHIGHERBYINVESTORSRuleof40%–PublicSaaS(cont.)U PAYCNOWASAN NEMSHOPNEMSHOPCWANPCTYDTWKWKESMTDSYXMPCORLEMONFIVNLVCCOUPSPSCAPPNTENBBRZESPSCAPPNTENBBRZEDVAPPFAPPFMIMEBLNDSMCRT Ruleof40%lineDOCUFROG Ruleof40%lineDOCUFROGPINGTEMNZENVPINGTEMNZENVUSERCRMAPPMSPSEMRPDQTWORNGAMPLTWLOAPPMSPSEMRPDWKLBIGCWKLBIGCPWSCZMAYXFPIPAIEMISZUONEWREVBGFPIPAIEMISZUOSAPSAPBASEBASEWKMEBMBLLPSNDOTDLPSNDOTDFAASUMOBNFTBNFTINFAUPLDEYEEGHTEYEEGHTSINCHYEXTGHTYEXTGHTRXTBCOVWEAVWEAVECOM20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%Ruleof40%Sources:CapitalIQ(asof30June2022)26411147995694992680204565066196323790326411147995694992680204565066196323790397593441PubliccompanyanalysesALALLOCATIONTechgiants–showmethemoney▪Totaltechgiantspendingwasapproximately26%higherduringtheLTMtoQ22022periodwhencomparedtothesameperiodoneyearago,withslightlyincreasedoperatingcashflowsreducingthedeficitformanyofthesetechtitans▪Broadthemesincludeincreasedsharebuybacks,capex,andacquisitions,whilecompanieshardlypaiddividendsatall▪AmazonsignificantlyincreasedspendinginR&DandcapexwhileSalesforcecontinueditsbuyingspreewiththreeadditionalacquisitionsannouncedinQ22022,likelycapitalisingondiscountedvaluationsLTM(Q22022)%ofoperatingcashflow($m)1711902▪▪Capex▪DebtpaydownLTM-1(Q22021)%ofoperatingcashflow($m)1490%100%200%300%400%500%▪Sharebuybacks▪Dividends▪AcquisitionsSource:CapitalIQ(asof30June2022)Note:Existingcashreservesallowcompaniestospendover100%ofoperatingcash1DollaramountsrepresenttotalcashspendduringtheLTMperiodCEOcommentaryCEOcommentaryLEADINGCOMPANIESANDCEOSTRANSFORMINGTHESECTORTonyAyaz,CEOTONYAYAZCEO,SCUBAANALYTICS“We’relivinginapost-digitaltransformationerawhereprivacyisking.Manyofthetoolsonthemarketcan’tkeepupwiththisparadigmshift.TraditionalBusinessIntelligence(BI)isgoodforstaticdatasetsbutnotsousefulforreal-time,streamingdatasetsthatrequirecomplexextractionproceduresToday,customershavevariousinteractionswithbrandsacrossdifferentsystems,thatallgenerateeventsconstantly.Ifyou'retryingtostayrelevantinapost-digitaltransformationera,there’sdatacominginallthetime–andyouprocessit,thatcanimpactyourbusinesssignificantlyScubaisn’tbuiltliketraditionalBItools.Itwasdesignedforbothstaticandreal-time,unstructureddatawithano-codeUIascalableabilitytoanalysebillionsofdatapointsgenerateddaily,sothatbrandscangetunparalleledaccesstoactionableanalyticsinsights”ScubaAnalyticsScubaAnalyticsisacontinuousintelligenceplatformthatenablesbusinessestoaccesscustomerdataacrossalldepartmentsinoneplacetoallowfordecisionmakingatspeed.Throughtheplatform,usersareprovidedwithactionableinsightsabouttheircustomers:purchasingpatterns,behaviors,productusageandmore,inreal-timeandatscale.Hostedintheclient’scloudofchoice,includingprivatecloud,theplatformensuresdatasecurityandprivacyThousandsofindividualsacrossleadingglobalbusinessessuchasMicrosoft,SalesforceandTwitteruseScubaAnalyticstoanalysetrillionsofdatapoints.CreatedbytheteamwhobuiltMeta’sanalyticsplatform,ScubaAnalyticsisstillusedtodaybymorethanhalfofthetechnologyfirm’semployeesCEOcommentaryCEOcommentaryLEADINGCOMPANIESANDCEOSTRANSFORMINGTHESECTORDavidHahn,FounderandCEODAVIDHAHNCO-FOUNDER&CEO,REMBERG“Industry4.0,withallitsbuzzwordslikeIoT,predictivemainten