投资策略专题：景气投资方法论与历史复盘

略|投资策略专题2022年08月02日盘联系人余可骋、逸昕请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明1•在本篇文章中，我们梳理了近几年对景气投资的一些研究成果与研究心得，同时也结合市场在不同阶段的表推演、案例分析与应用等方面都进行完善。•报告内容主要包含以下几个方面：一．景气投资的全球规律：景气度高低决定相对收益高低(对全球股市具有普适性)。二．市场偏好什么样的增长曲线：五种增长类型的比较(增速、趋势、形态)。三．什么时候该重视估值与景气度的平衡：三种情形(宏观周期变化、个股景气变化、长周期投资)。四．关于估值空间的判断：兼论PEG估值的误区与应用(哪些适用，哪些不适用)。六．复盘与应用(1)：寻找景气向上但涨幅偏离的板块(偏离度)。七．复盘与应用(2)：科技赛道行情的起承转合(6个案例)。性收紧超预期，海外不确定性风险、模型有效性风险等。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明2•年初至今，市场经历了较大的波动，以景气度为核心的选股思路似乎也遇到了挑战。我们从数据上做一些客观分析。•首先，我们将【2022年1-4月涨幅】分组为10组，再观察各组【2022Q1财务指标】的中位数，可以发现：年初至今，涨得好的标的具有①高景气(Q1扣非增速高)、②低估值(年初PE/PB分位数低)、③小市值(年初市值相对较低)等特征。•可见在今年1-4月市场下跌过程中，景气度高低是涨跌幅高低的核心决定因素，这一条规律在大数概率上并没有失效。图表：2022年【1-4月涨幅】分组与各组【2022Q1财务指标】中位数涨幅分组ROE (%)ROE变化率扣非增速 (%)营收增速 (%)年初PE期末PE(4/30日)年初PB分位期末PB分位(4/30日)年初市值 (亿)第1组(涨幅最高)8.10.97%15.612.920.421.417.6%22.0%55.0第2组7.4-0.42%8.27.223.423.118.9%16.6%62.3第3组6.5-1.88%4.69.830.630.420.6%26.2%60.9第4组6.8-1.51%6.610.330.528.822.7%21.3%55.3第5组-3.47%-5.57.436.432.020.6%25.6%55.5第6组6.0-4.07%-13.19.440.234.130.2%25.3%55.6第7组6.3-4.06%-9.19.439.533.934.4%28.8%64.1第8组7.5-4.99%-13.79.240.831.937.9%28.5%70.0第9组7.0-5.75%-13.510.348.234.543.6%34.9%83.8第10组(涨幅最低)6.6-8.22%-33.656.037.745.9%37.8%89.8•另外，从细分行业来看：2022年1-4月，行业涨跌幅也与2022Q1增速呈现明显的正相关性。但也有部分行业出现偏离(景气度代表高胜率的方向但概率上并非100%)，而在年初的下跌过程中，市场对【景气投资】有效性产生质疑，更多的是因为这些偏离的是近两年最热门的赛道板块——新能源车、光伏、储能、稀有金属等。2022Q1净利润增速半2022Q1净利润增速半导体-制造 (整体法)新能源车-电机新能源车-正极黄金农新能源车-电机新能源车-正极黄金农药新能源车-隔膜体外诊断高低，呈现单调正相关关系储能设备新能源车-负极储能设备稀有金属风电-整机风电-整机化肥航运化肥 石油开采半导体-功率石油开采半导体-功率休闲食品高铁与城轨燃气保险信息安全面动板物保健橡胶及制品券商农产品加工旅酒与餐饮 LED信创2022年初至今涨跌幅LED(中位数)-100%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%涨得好的标的也具有高景气(高扣非增速或营收增速)的特征——说明：财报披露之后，财务指标(高增速)依然具有一定有效性；特征、市值特征的表现则与【1-4月】相反。图表：2022年【5-6月涨幅】分组与各组【2022Q1财务指标】中位数涨幅分组ROE (%)ROE变化率扣非增速 (%)营收增速 (%)年初PE期末PE(6/30日)年初PB分位期末PB分位(6/30日)年初市值 (亿)第1组(涨幅最高)7.8-1.76%7.617.251.038.555.5%45.3%81.3第2组7.3-1.03%6.613.849.139.945.2%34.9%75.1第3组6.1-1.86%-0.511.446.337.135.8%29.5%68.4第4组6.8-2.09%-2.710.542.534.333.7%28.4%66.8第5组6.2-3.30%-11.59.136.030.524.9%25.0%52.3第6组6.3-3.30%-9.86.637.632.417.8%21.2%53.9第7组-4.81%-8.88.834.630.918.0%25.6%53.3第8组6.5-4.93%-14.92.826.925.020.4%19.3%60.5第9组7.5-4.30%-0.721.220.217.2%22.1%82.3第10组(涨幅最低)7.7-1.38%7.118.919.223.4%15.2%67.2各国各行业年化收益率 (1973-2022年)4.00%各国各行业年化收益率 (1973-2022年)4.00%yy=0.3339x+0.0187R²=0.31日:电信德:金融法:基本材料法:工业法:科技法:卫生保健英:工业法:能源英:可选英:工业法:能源英:可选英:能源德:卫生保健美:基本材料法:金融德:卫生保健美:基本材料英:金融德:基本材料德:基本材料英:电信美:金融法:必选英:基本材料:能源德:必选德:公用事业美:电信美:公用事业德:科技美:卫生保健美:科技必选美:工业:可选英:科技德:可选英:必选英:公用事业日:基本材料日:能源德:电信日:公用事业各国各行业ROE平均值 (1973-2022年)法:电信3.0%5.0%7.0%9.0%11.0%13.0%15.0%17.0%19.0%21.0%23.0% (1973-2022年)软件和计算机服务生产技术设备 (1973-2022年)软件和计算机服务生产技术设备房地产y美股各行业年化收益率00.3473x+0.0461R²=0.2889=零售商技术硬件和设备消费者服务技术硬件和设备消费者服务半导体卫生保健提供者医疗设备和服务饮料制药和生物技术饮料制药和生物技术传媒汽车及零传媒汽车及零部件食品生产商建筑和材料气设备保险家庭用品业运输业运输业工程化学品航空和国防化学品航空和国防休闲产品银行个人物品个人护理和非耐用个人物品个人护理和非耐用品工业服务基本资源公用事业电信源美股各行业ROE平均值 (1973-2022年)00%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%22.0%24.0%26.0%Wind8业品料备会务容理械备车筑料机林渔色金属银金融行用地产筑饰售础工媒信保织饰煤炭铁通输20054532281796200637756124892007534482971200812349577200969771853220108924371620112761345592012837261499201396884317201488916427735201594872563201613879426201716547839201839154827201928947162020326154478920211924766358计12345667891011121314151617181920212223232425262728请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明91景气投资的全球规律定相对收益度高低决定相对收益高低•景气度高低决定相对收益高低——对全球股市具有普适性。•首先，对于A股市场，我们回溯了诸多财务指标(如增速、盈利、估值、现金流、股息率等)，从单因子有效性来看，在过去30•其次，我们将这一规律的探讨延伸至海外发达市场，具体做法：将发达国家或地区，全市场标的的年度涨幅分组(10组，第1组到第10组，涨幅由高到低)，取每组年底的EPS_TTM增速(中位数)；其中，EPS增速为滚动12个月数据，与年度涨幅口径对应。取决于业绩增速的高低。不管是A股过去30年，还是美股过去50年，全市场年度的涨幅高低与当速的高低呈现线性正相关的关系。这一规律，除了A股、美股之外，我们进一步回溯了日本、德国、英国、法国、中。A股：景气度高低决定相对收益高低年份1992199319941995199619971998199920002001第1组(增速最高)-106.01.4-8.791.151.437.335.086.1-18.1第2组-101.4-29.2-16.6135.464.213.718.772.7-21.7第3组--20.2-30.1-9.697.840.710.729.171.5-16.9第4组--24.0-27.0-14.551.446.810.920.360.5-23.5第5组--10.2-23.8-10.373.117.30.917.764.1-21.4第6组--6.9-18.6-20.275.128.1-2.78.154.1-24.6第7组-42.1-40.9-19.986.811.3-9.06.744.6-25.2第8组--20.1-40.3-22.154.1-0.9-15.13.452.0-28.6第9组-4.7-41.5-24.534.5-2.4-6.3-0.644.8-28.2第第10组(增速最低)---25.6--43.3--26.178.78.5-4-4.866.5-1-1.25656.2--29.9年份2002200320042005200620072008200920102011第1组(增速最高)-15.2-5.9-10.1-4.3112.1250.1-57.5158.317.4-25.5第2组-21.7-17.2-12.5-6.674.4222.6-58.8155.810.6-26.6第3组-17.1-1.8-9.6-5.076.7186.2-55.5138.16.8-25.2第4组-21.2-12.2-11.3-8.8101.7179.5-57.2149.817.8-33.3第5组-21.6-13.7-13.1-11.195.1159.8-60.0113.19.3-33.3第6组-23.3-15.2-16.5-14.371.6142.8-62.2103.86.6-36.0第7组-25.6-19.3-21.4-23.260.0155.5-64.2116.87.6-37.9第8组-27.4-24.1-23.8-26.954.7134.4-67.7131.6-2.9-41.9第9组-26.6-24.0-27.1-31.744.6145.1-66.7110.1-9.5-37.2第第10组(增速最低)--28.9--31.1--29.7--34.05454.01175.0--63.31118.8-7-7.1--39.6年份2012201320142015201620172018201920202021第1组(增速最高)8.828.446.783.2-8.5-8.8-28.732.921.142.8第2组9.123.144.385.9-9.9-17.5-30.323.617.525.6第3组6.133.041.977.1-10.6-12.9-25.829.116.319.1第4组3.026.640.063.2-13.0-14.5-28.026.715.014.1第5组-1.021.934.962.1-14.4-16.3-30.620.35.69.4第6组-5.622.336.647.2-14.6-18.3-34.115.51.67.4第7组-4.916.334.649.9-15.0-21.0-34.99.0-5.56.2第8组-10.72.930.649.7-19.9-27.5-40.87.8-7.5-2.7第9组-14.72.829.141.8-18.9-30.6-40.45.0-11.4-1.5第10组(增速最低)-12.41.437.039.4-17.7-30.6-44.43.7-11.9-1.1景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组(10组)与每组EPS_TTM增速(图中数值为每组增速的中位数)国1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)71.4%109.4%76.5%59.2%50.0%38.1%39.6%42.9%64.3%37.5%第2组21.6%37.8%33.9%25.2%33.8%25.8%26.3%25.0%25.8%23.8%第3组13.9%24.0%34.3%18.5%20.0%18.4%26.4%22.2%17.2%19.1%第4组5.9%21.7%20.5%17.5%19.8%14.4%20.0%15.7%13.0%15.6%第5组5.9%16.7%13.7%12.3%13.5%10.0%15.1%11.1%10.6%10.3%第6组2.5%10.1%13.8%8.4%12.2%8.0%16.0%10.8%11.4%7.3%第7组-8.4%5.3%11.4%7.3%7.3%6.3%11.1%11.8%7.4%9.8%第8组-10.5%4.6%5.2%3.0%5.3%-6.8%12.8%2.4%7.5%7.4%第9组-15.8%-21.6%-1.1%-3.3%1.1%-11.8%-2.7%-4.8%2.6%-15.2%第10组(涨幅最低)-28.9%-25.0%-10.8%-12.7%-38.8%-27.0%-24.4%-22.0%-12.3%-46.7%国2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)28.9%46.3%142.9%93.7%59.0%81.5%46.7%16.4%22.6%59.4%第2组10.9%22.5%51.0%40.1%35.0%37.7%28.2%6.8%1.2%37.6%第3组8.0%15.2%46.3%29.7%30.0%20.1%16.9%6.2%-11.0%21.2%第4组7.0%12.8%22.6%20.9%21.1%15.7%10.2%7.7%-12.1%24.2%第5组2.1%5.1%20.2%12.7%14.9%12.5%9.0%9.0%-7.4%17.8%第6组-2.1%1.4%14.8%9.4%10.0%12.8%5.1%-3.7%-9.8%15.5%第7组-2.6%0.8%9.9%5.7%5.2%7.6%1.9%9.0%-4.7%11.4%第8组-9.2%-5.9%5.4%5.1%5.0%3.4%-4.1%-12.2%-17.6%5.0%第9组-16.7%-10.2%3.8%-4.2%-9.2%2.2%-6.8%-17.9%-22.2%5.4%第10组(涨幅最低)-32.3%-31.9%-8.0%-12.4%-20.2%-14.3%-31.2%-22.0%-43.0%-10.0%国2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)42.9%60.0%37.3%33.2%40.8%29.9%73.4%46.5%21.0%48.8%第2组33.0%26.8%23.9%13.5%18.9%11.9%24.4%27.5%13.8%30.7%第3组20.4%21.3%13.5%12.1%13.9%9.9%20.9%28.6%12.0%10.9%第4组16.3%14.3%11.0%11.4%7.6%6.4%13.7%28.0%7.8%5.1%第5组17.8%9.9%10.9%7.5%6.4%6.1%11.2%20.3%10.6%-4.8%第6组17.8%8.8%7.1%9.3%2.3%7.7%5.4%21.1%2.3%-1.3%第7组9.1%5.1%0.8%4.4%1.3%6.0%5.4%18.1%2.4%-8.2%第8组9.0%-1.1%0.8%-3.0%-10.9%-0.6%1.1%18.5%-8.7%-11.5%第9组4.1%-12.0%-6.9%-6.7%-8.5%-12.3%-20.0%11.1%-18.7%-22.2%第10组(涨幅最低)-18.0%-25.8%-21.3%-21.2%-35.1%-34.1%-16.7%-19.6%-44.5%-51.6%高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组(10组)与每组EPS_TTM增速(图中数值为每组增速的中位数)国1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)15.9%21.8%48.9%43.9%31.4%29.1%33.7%28.5%27.7%24.4%第2组-2.4%15.3%35.1%26.8%22.9%22.5%22.4%19.1%23.0%15.3%第3组-7.1%9.9%19.7%20.3%17.2%22.5%17.0%16.0%9.0%11.8%第4组-10.4%5.1%12.6%19.0%13.9%13.7%17.6%16.2%6.6%6.2%第5组-17.3%-3.7%6.1%15.1%14.9%13.2%14.5%13.5%5.5%10.3%第6组-21.2%-2.7%3.6%14.4%11.0%5.1%14.4%10.9%4.2%9.7%第7组-31.4%-19.5%-0.7%12.5%8.0%8.4%7.9%10.6%3.8%9.1%第8组-28.8%-21.5%-3.8%6.3%2.8%-0.4%3.5%3.6%-2.8%0.7%第9组-37.1%-38.4%-11.2%13.0%-9.0%-5.3%0.6%-7.3%-12.6%-34.7%第10组(涨幅最低)-49.0%-49.0%-22.9%-10.7%-29.1%-29.1%-8.7%-8.1%-15.2%-19.7%国2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)22.5%40.0%39.3%39.6%51.6%50.3%38.7%22.9%7.3%69.0%第2组10.2%12.3%29.7%23.0%23.2%23.9%27.6%17.8%-2.1%31.3%第3组10.2%13.7%20.3%18.2%13.3%19.0%15.7%15.8%-2.5%11.7%第4组4.6%5.7%6.6%16.9%19.8%18.1%17.6%10.2%-5.8%5.9%第5组1.7%8.2%6.4%17.2%11.8%10.2%17.4%8.9%-0.8%7.7%第6组-15.8%3.7%6.4%19.2%12.2%16.6%13.0%7.6%-3.1%1.3%第7组-13.2%-9.4%3.4%9.3%6.4%11.4%13.6%7.3%-11.9%1.4%第8组-5.7%-14.2%2.0%9.7%-1.0%3.5%12.8%-9.6%-10.1%-10.5%第9组-29.0%-21.5%-3.2%9.5%-9.4%-3.9%6.6%-16.1%-14.9%-7.5%第10组(涨幅最低)-46.2%-33.9%-24.2%-33.3%-14.3%-26.8%-12.2%-12.8%-41.0%-19.5%国2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)42.3%18.6%30.0%39.5%40.7%36.4%35.5%27.0%27.7%41.1%第2组18.6%17.7%22.2%21.9%21.1%14.8%12.2%21.7%13.0%22.6%第3组14.3%9.4%10.4%10.9%11.0%10.7%20.1%8.7%8.5%12.5%第4组9.6%10.6%6.9%10.0%7.1%12.0%10.7%11.1%6.1%-2.2%第5组8.8%1.4%2.0%10.3%5.6%7.1%7.9%1.7%8.3%1.6%第6组13.3%0.6%-2.4%3.0%1.0%8.2%9.2%7.6%-2.8%-20.9%第7组3.4%-7.8%-0.3%-1.3%-1.3%8.5%1.9%5.4%-1.7%-22.0%第8组17.8%-3.7%-19.3%-6.0%-12.2%9.1%-2.2%4.5%-6.5%-30.9%第9组-7.1%-22.2%-16.1%-7.9%-22.1%6.9%3.3%-5.0%-12.8%-31.0%第10组(涨幅最低)-12.8%-39.3%-36.7%-29.2%-31.9%-13.0%-11.1%14.3%-28.9%-60.3%景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组(10组)与每组EPS_TTM增速(图中数值为每组增速的中位数)国1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)20.8%19.8%14.3%24.5%28.7%24.4%32.1%12.3%34.4%23.2%第2组5.7%1.1%24.4%32.9%14.8%6.8%19.4%43.6%13.2%17.3%第3组-0.1%23.1%-4.2%25.4%42.6%22.0%18.9%34.2%19.4%43.5%第4组10.5%1.0%10.5%-13.3%22.1%17.9%14.8%28.0%15.0%8.8%第5组-4.8%-4.5%-2.3%13.1%17.6%12.9%5.8%21.4%22.0%4.6%第6组3.3%-1.6%10.3%5.9%4.9%23.4%22.8%16.2%4.1%13.8%第7组7.4%-1.4%-3.4%3.7%5.6%-9.4%10.6%27.5%5.1%3.8%第8组-1.7%-10.4%-48.5%1.7%8.1%-6.0%3.0%25.6%1.4%11.1%第9组6.6%-22.1%-33.7%5.0%10.4%-15.0%-4.3%9.7%9.6%17.8%第10组(涨幅最低)-19.0%-17.1%-76.4%12.2%-3.1%-51.5%-11.4%4.2%7.7%7.7%国2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)35.2%23.8%62.5%63.9%103.6%66.7%68.8%15.8%11.1%115.6%第2组20.7%15.9%50.0%46.7%45.5%50.0%36.4%34.1%-7.8%44.1%第3组14.2%3.5%26.9%23.1%27.7%30.8%43.1%25.0%-26.7%57.3%第4组9.6%20.0%7.7%21.0%19.9%30.9%15.9%2.8%-38.8%21.4%第5组4.1%-17.7%3.2%12.4%22.5%16.7%11.0%10.4%-17.2%21.5%第6组1.2%-11.3%-5.0%12.6%10.2%7.0%24.3%2.7%-32.2%13.0%第7组-5.5%-17.0%-8.6%26.1%6.7%18.4%21.7%-12.4%-44.0%-21.1%第8组22.2%-24.4%-18.8%-10.6%10.6%6.3%12.2%-19.5%-40.3%-12.9%第9组150.0%10.3%-18.3%5.4%-7.7%50.0%9.2%-30.0%-3.6%-10.2%第10组(涨幅最低)-10.5%-32.4%-32.4%-30.7%-18.4%6.0%6.0%-60.6%-47.6%-27.9%国2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)76.9%32.6%28.1%65.9%55.8%34.1%73.7%34.3%28.6%41.6%第2组27.2%10.8%10.5%25.1%27.5%28.1%50.0%10.5%20.0%22.8%第3组30.8%12.0%13.2%23.4%18.6%13.4%23.7%15.4%6.9%15.6%第4组27.1%-2.5%-11.1%5.4%16.8%15.5%14.3%8.8%2.4%-4.1%第5组13.8%-1.9%-2.2%5.4%-2.6%12.5%12.6%5.5%-1.2%-16.5%第6组5.6%0.9%-2.5%6.8%-3.3%4.5%8.4%-4.6%-21.0%1.1%第7组-18.8%-2.0%-18.5%-1.7%0.6%-4.0%0.5%1.1%-6.9%-17.8%第8组3.9%-15.3%-31.2%-24.7%1.4%6.8%-2.0%-9.6%-14.5%-20.0%第9组-25.4%-40.4%-8.7%-31.8%-19.2%-7.5%5.5%-2.8%-21.5%-18.5%第10组(涨幅最低)-42.1%-35.7%-30.8%-7.5%-22.9%4.2%-9.9%-30.4%11.5%-32.9%景气度高低决定相对收益高低图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组(10组)与每组EPS_TTM增速(图中数值为每组增速的中位数)法国1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)20.8%12.3%46.2%31.6%24.7%29.2%28.6%22.0%44.2%25.9%第2组7.8%8.7%13.8%18.1%15.4%22.9%19.5%22.1%28.5%24.8%第3组2.2%-0.9%23.7%11.1%16.7%20.9%16.1%19.0%24.0%11.9%第4组8.6%-14.4%9.0%14.1%5.7%7.7%15.8%14.6%18.3%10.1%第5组-7.6%-15.1%21.7%-0.2%3.2%5.2%13.1%8.7%31.3%18.3%第6组-7.3%-6.8%9.0%3.7%2.0%10.0%10.7%15.1%13.0%15.7%第7组-5.9%-23.1%22.8%8.2%-15.9%3.7%8.4%9.9%15.5%1.7%第8组-10.7%-20.7%14.6%4.9%-5.9%-4.4%7.6%8.9%12.8%12.6%第9组-19.0%-17.4%-2.5%-6.7%-18.3%-11.2%12.8%5.9%11.4%4.4%第10组(涨幅最低)-12.3%-55.4%-14.5%-30.8%-24.8%3.7%2.1%-13.4%3.7%-16.8%法国2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)41.6%45.3%44.3%80.9%73.9%42.3%8.3%-8.2%41.4%32.9%第2组14.7%26.0%30.4%44.5%36.9%22.6%10.8%-19.3%12.5%25.9%第3组18.6%16.3%21.9%52.9%30.1%17.5%13.7%-21.8%22.5%20.4%第4组4.9%10.1%14.1%23.7%20.5%19.2%7.8%-13.1%-0.2%12.8%第5组6.3%4.0%15.7%22.5%18.1%22.0%10.0%-9.0%9.8%24.0%第6组5.6%-0.5%11.8%13.9%20.7%13.1%2.6%-15.7%4.8%14.7%第7组-7.6%-9.1%10.9%8.8%18.5%9.2%5.2%-21.7%15.5%2.1%第8组-22.2%1.4%12.0%2.3%10.3%5.1%-3.0%-13.6%3.3%8.8%第9组-31.3%-20.5%10.6%-29.4%-11.9%-4.9%-3.1%-13.3%19.7%-6.6%第10组(涨幅最低)-44.3%-53.2%-20.7%-23.5%-11.8%-24.1%-48.5%-48.5%-29.5%17.8%法国2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)26.8%29.1%28.6%50.0%27.1%51.1%17.0%48.9%69.0%134.7%第2组9.8%11.2%21.0%20.3%38.7%16.4%14.4%10.9%3.0%51.4%第3组8.5%1.6%18.3%7.0%12.6%11.4%17.5%3.4%-4.8%47.1%第4组3.0%6.4%1.2%14.2%20.4%12.1%10.8%3.1%-12.7%44.8%第5组-10.7%2.6%-2.7%17.5%8.1%7.5%8.0%-1.2%-14.0%28.2%第6组-1.1%-7.7%14.3%-2.4%7.5%7.5%11.3%-3.6%-16.4%32.3%第7组-14.0%-15.3%-0.9%-3.4%1.8%4.4%9.5%-14.8%-24.2%50.0%第8组-11.2%-19.2%-13.9%-13.4%-8.0%2.2%-4.6%-29.0%-30.0%8.9%第9组-28.3%-25.7%-27.3%-48.1%-16.2%-18.2%-10.1%-31.1%-38.0%20.4%第10组(涨幅最低)-42.5%1.0%-16.0%-22.1%47.4%34.3%-64.3%-76.7%-6.7%-83.6%图：海外发达市场：年度涨幅分组(10组)与每组EPS_TTM增速(图中数值为每组增速的中位数)1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)14.7%6.6%6.0%18.4%28.5%23.2%14.5%7.7%15.6%47.2%第2组11.4%-4.0%0.6%2.4%20.7%16.1%10.1%-9.0%0.5%30.7%第3组10.0%-8.0%-10.2%0.4%15.2%13.1%5.6%-6.2%-3.2%24.3%第4组7.1%-7.3%-11.1%-3.8%7.2%7.5%8.3%-8.7%-12.4%12.0%第5组2.3%-14.6%-21.7%-8.8%9.2%4.0%7.7%-15.7%-5.5%22.8%第6组-1.0%-16.4%-21.6%-11.9%3.9%3.3%6.0%-15.1%-18.2%13.9%第7组-4.0%-17.7%-23.0%-15.3%2.8%-1.1%-5.0%-22.0%-14.1%13.2%第8组-6.0%-24.6%-33.6%-8.6%-0.8%-3.4%-5.0%-26.0%-20.7%9.9%第9组-8.4%-24.3%-38.9%-24.1%-4.7%1.6%-11.1%-25.6%-26.4%2.6%第10组(涨幅最低)-14.6%-30.3%-30.5%-33.2%-13.8%-5.6%-17.8%-30.2%-28.9%-8.5%2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)30.3%20.4%17.6%38.2%34.0%31.9%14.6%3.4%-5.0%68.5%第2组23.6%5.9%11.0%35.3%21.2%24.2%8.6%-6.6%-15.2%29.6%第3组20.4%-3.5%9.9%34.1%21.0%19.1%4.6%-10.0%-16.8%13.0%第4组6.9%-3.6%1.0%31.0%16.4%16.7%2.7%-8.3%-18.1%31.3%第5组-3.2%-13.7%-1.0%28.0%10.2%15.7%2.6%-10.2%-21.3%16.6%第6组8.1%-15.9%-2.1%28.8%13.0%17.8%1.4%-13.9%-25.3%8.6%第7组-3.0%-20.8%2.1%25.6%9.4%12.2%-0.7%-12.9%-38.1%17.0%第8组6.6%-26.1%1.4%13.6%10.3%6.7%1.8%-16.7%-40.4%19.5%第9组-3.5%-37.0%-5.7%23.5%3.5%9.7%-14.7%-21.2%-46.0%12.1%第10组(涨幅最低)-15.1%-36.8%-13.5%15.9%-12.1%4.4%-11.1%-35.7%-39.4%14.7%2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)7.5%16.7%23.8%15.6%17.8%11.9%22.1%9.2%12.2%-0.3%第2组0.0%8.1%21.8%15.0%12.7%7.3%17.6%4.1%7.1%-5.1%第3组4.6%1.2%22.0%13.7%11.9%5.7%13.5%5.1%2.9%-8.1%第4组1.5%4.2%19.2%10.3%10.6%9.6%15.9%1.6%1.9%-9.2%第5组10.4%8.4%17.9%6.7%13.2%0.3%13.7%2.3%2.1%-14.8%第6组5.3%8.5%21.6%8.9%13.1%7.0%15.8%-0.3%4.7%-11.1%第7组-2.7%2.2%18.9%8.7%7.6%0.9%17.6%2.6%-3.2%-14.7%第8组3.4%0.5%26.0%4.5%8.0%2.6%14.9%0.2%-3.1%-7.6%第9组-2.5%-1.9%23.9%6.0%9.2%-0.2%15.6%-0.2%-13.9%-15.3%第10组(涨幅最低)0.3%-6.0%2.1%13.8%5.5%-8.5%11.3%0.2%-8.7%-8.7%图：中国台湾市场：年度涨幅分组(10组)与每组EPS_TTM增速(图中数值为每组增速的中位数)TW1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)15.6%54.9%68.2%125.1%31.3%46.1%100.3%59.8%2.5%56.7%第2组45.0%16.3%19.7%119.2%18.5%8.8%44.4%47.6%-7.3%27.5%第3组-28.6%9.4%-7.8%30.1%-2.3%29.5%53.5%13.1%-5.0%10.3%第4组-7.1%25.7%-7.1%17.7%3.8%10.7%43.1%3.6%-35.4%27.3%第5组-45.5%4.8%5.8%17.7%14.8%27.4%16.3%4.4%-14.5%36.9%第6组-29.2%-9.8%-19.4%40.0%-20.4%4.3%15.4%-12.1%-30.4%10.6%第7组-7.5%13.6%-9.7%7.7%11.0%-10.7%22.6%5.3%-22.0%-7.5%第8组7.2%-8.6%-16.0%10.0%-24.6%-21.0%17.5%-17.2%-34.0%-3.1%第9组-29.2%-47.9%-56.3%-28.3%15.0%-20.6%8.1%-30.2%-29.2%-0.5%第10组(涨幅最低)4.2%-63.1%-2.7%-40.9%-26.2%-36.7%-8.4%-20.2%-27.9%-2.4%TW2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)33.0%93.7%100.5%149.4%16.9%76.3%70.8%23.6%69.9%164.4%第2组3.6%65.4%60.3%59.8%-0.7%68.3%38.6%2.6%9.4%77.8%第3组-30.1%37.6%44.4%34.7%4.5%58.0%24.3%-2.5%6.4%84.1%第4组-9.1%6.6%44.2%47.9%-3.2%36.7%16.4%-7.6%-10.3%51.4%第5组-20.4%8.0%18.4%39.1%-10.5%14.5%11.1%-21.2%-13.2%59.2%第6组-28.2%0.7%11.1%31.8%-9.8%27.3%9.1%-20.2%-27.9%34.9%第7组-32.6%4.9%-0.5%14.8%-26.1%2.4%-8.4%-37.8%-28.7%42.2%第8组-45.2%-2.9%-17.6%4.7%-38.0%-3.1%-9.2%-44.1%-23.7%34.3%第9组-50.5%-27.7%-30.7%-9.6%-36.5%-14.7%-18.4%-46.0%-19.4%14.1%第10组(涨幅最低)-50.5%-47.7%-33.5%-48.8%-61.0%-21.8%-33.4%-44.0%-30.9%-5.8%TW2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)41.9%62.8%43.3%72.5%48.4%58.2%52.0%61.5%40.1%80.0%第2组18.1%18.5%32.8%40.9%24.3%20.7%39.9%30.4%18.6%47.8%第3组1.4%9.2%20.4%34.8%19.2%10.6%29.8%19.4%15.2%21.4%第4组-8.3%6.0%22.0%23.4%2.6%-2.1%17.1%7.0%4.7%15.5%第5组-15.7%-4.3%13.8%19.9%0.8%-4.1%5.8%2.8%-0.6%11.3%第6组-20.5%-13.1%-1.3%8.1%1.5%-11.5%-3.3%-5.1%-6.6%1.9%第7组-28.0%-26.4%-8.1%1.7%-10.4%-15.0%-6.2%-6.9%-13.8%-6.8%第8组-40.5%-42.2%-8.1%-6.7%-18.8%-25.5%-17.3%-10.5%-29.4%-23.7%第9组-47.8%-50.7%-27.8%-23.0%-27.6%-31.3%-18.0%-13.3%-45.9%-42.2%第10组(涨幅最低)-51.2%-46.1%-44.5%-34.9%-49.7%-34.3%-38.3%-29.5%-34.5%-41.1%图：中国香港市场：年度涨幅分组(10组)与每组EPS_TTM增速(图中数值为每组增速的中位数)HK1991-19951996-2000第1组(涨幅最高)6.3%25.6%33.3%55.6%30.8%33.3%74.6%-8.7%-5.0%53.6%第2组17.6%42.9%28.1%24.2%25.0%16.1%45.0%-11.5%20.0%58.0%第3组12.3%35.7%23.3%23.6%6.3%20.2%36.5%-26.1%-9.0%30.9%第4组-10.7%23.7%13.9%19.6%6.1%16.5%34.5%-20.0%-4.9%2.0%第5组-9.4%16.1%18.0%13.9%-20.8%13.7%20.0%-37.5%4.2%14.1%第6组-18.3%20.4%6.3%12.5%-20.0%3.4%23.5%-53.8%-28.3%3.6%第7组1.1%12.5%2.3%-10.7%-5.4%-13.3%9.1%-38.1%8.0%3.6%第8组-38.8%18.0%11.1%1.1%-48.9%-13.5%19.7%-53.6%-28.2%-36.4%第9组-24.5%-18.8%-13.3%4.7%-16.7%-18.1%-2.0%-70.0%-14.3%4.3%第10组(涨幅最低)-46.4%-26.2%-32.4%-48.3%-44.2%-48.3%3.2%-73.9%-23.1%-27.9%HK2001-20052006-2010第1组(涨幅最高)13.0%40.0%60.8%113.3%75.0%58.1%53.8%33.3%-0.7%105.6%第2组18.4%4.5%25.0%110.0%31.4%27.6%94.2%26.3%-10.9%82.9%第3组9.4%-6.7%10.6%43.5%30.8%23.4%50.7%15.2%-18.5%57.1%第4组-7.7%-17.0%-5.0%77.8%16.9%17.5%42.9%12.5%-16.4%68.3%第5组-5.4%-22.7%-8.3%24.0%17.8%18.8%48.1%24.3%-46.3%50.0%第6组-22.9%-19.7%-13.0%22.7%10.4%7.0%20.0%8.0%-34.1%31.6%第7组-30.0%6.8%-25.0%33.3%5.0%2.6%12.6%2.6%-30.4%27.7%第8组-27.2%-36.4%-33.3%16.2%-12.2%-10.7%4.4%-9.8%-34.7%9.2%第9组-70.4%-52.6%-50.0%-13.1%-40.0%-26.7%7.1%7.7%-48.0%-5.7%第10组(涨幅最低)-41.7%-41.7%-74.3%-20.0%-62.5%-29.2%-22.4%-9.1%-20.1%-8.4%HK2011-20152016-2020第1组(涨幅最高)31.4%18.6%31.8%5.7%22.2%-14.3%41.7%40.0%23.8%12.8%第2组37.5%12.5%26.0%18.0%24.5%5.3%33.3%23.8%11.8%10.2%第3组33.3%-2.5%19.3%14.3%18.2%-11.3%30.6%33.3%3.7%-2.3%第4组32.3%-8.8%16.6%7.1%14.3%-5.7%16.7%20.5%-1.2%-7.1%第5组23.3%-5.2%16.2%12.5%11.4%-1.6%12.3%13.0%-17.8%-12.1%第6组2.9%-16.7%6.5%1.4%-4.2%-13.5%-4.8%15.3%-17.2%-10.3%第7组16.7%-24.9%7.3%-5.6%2.2%-18.4%6.9%8.2%-15.0%-22.8%第8组14.3%-32.7%2.8%-11.4%-1.8%-15.5%-27.4%7.1%-28.8%-25.0%第9组-6.1%-32.6%-15.8%-11.6%-21.1%-15.4%-25.9%-4.0%-25.9%-34.2%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明192市场偏好什么样的增长曲线增速、趋势、形态•从一维角度，高增速、高景气是中短期选股的最佳参考指标。高增速至少代表的是高胜率的方向。•从二维角度，不同的增长曲线，对于选股的结果也会有很大的差异。这所指的是高增速但增速趋势不同所反应出的后续景气趋势的不同(向上/向下/走平)。•对此，我们将增长的类型初步分为五大类来讨论“市场偏好什么样的增长”：–第五类：困境反转。恢复程度区分大幅反转、一般反转、小幅反转。增速、趋势、形态–①【加速增长】类型：不管是由低速加速还是由高速加速，与【持续高增长】类型的区分度不大(增速>30%)。–②【减速增长】类型：若增速降幅不大(当年绝对增速>30%且增速降幅不大于50%)，其涨幅与前两类区分度也不大。若增速降幅过大(超过50%)，则表现一般。–③【困境反转】类型：是否有超额收益取决于困境反转的程度。利润恢复程度>120%，才能获得相对不错的收益；底线要恢复程度不能低于70%，否则收益率将明显下滑。–④【低速稳定】类型：在这几类资产中的表现垫底，[20%~30%]增速类型在市场整体盈利较弱的环境中，表现会相对突出，⑤【加速增长】VS【减速增长】：加速增长时抬估值，降速增长时杀估值，至少对于相对估值的变化是成立的。–历史规律显示：在选择高增长、但增速从高位回落的标的时，可参考指标：当年绝对增速>30%且增速降幅不大于50%。–①当年涨幅与利润恢复程度正相关；–②利润恢复程度>120%，才能获得相对不错的收益；–③底线要求利润恢复程度不能低于70%，否则收益率将明显下滑。Wind22。图：五种增长类型的年度表现(表中数值为各年度符合增速与增速变化要求的标的，当年涨幅中位数，%)分组上一年增速(%)本年增速(%)增速变化20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021中值均值第1类加速增长>100>100加速6.491.3235.9-55.3194.327.3-19.34.044.650.4101.1-10.0-5.7-29.240.327.223.927.242.8[50,100]0加速12.3253.6133.8-54.0156.26.8-29.024.136.937.492.8-12.6-8.5-31.644.143.636.936.943.7[30,50]0加速51.9187.9174.6-50.71183.48.8.2--20.01414.65454.137.937.9669.6--16.2--16.9--14.5447.218.929.129.144.7第2类持续高增长>100>100无要求6.4136.4235.5-55.31164.2220.5高景气增长类型-高景气增长类型5.733.855.6106.4-10.4-3.5-29.233.933.926.224.724.742.8[50,100][50,100]无要求13.6188.1158.0-55.91123.91616.8-28.724.131.639.992.8-11.4-9.0-29.2444.133.733.331.639.2[30,50][30,50]无要求43.8180.2195.2-55.4119.416.8-20.715.652.928.266.9-13.3-4.0-15.648.419.628.528.241.6第3类减速增长降0~1/300减速-0.4143.3206.4-57.3133.921.5-27.922.623.545.787.6-10.7-3.7-27.837.928.526.623.538.2降1/3~1/200减速3.6135.8179.4-59.0126.432.2-24.916.539.762.8108.9-19.9-9.6-28.243.529.918.129.938.6降1/2~2/300减速-2.789.2163.0-54.0122.35.4-24.86.733.556.574.9-13.0-5.4-32.642.314.121.914.129.3降2/3~10减速-12.194.9182.1-60.3126.59.3-33.74.616.147.478.8-14.9-14.5-32.327.814.215.214.226.4第4类低速稳定[20,30][20,30]无要求8.6110.6103.6-61.889.115.8-30.91.664.627.675.0-10.4-8.7-22.336.723.728.923.726.6[10,20][10,20]无要求4.279.6159.9-63.485.115.0-29.36.424.235.255.1-12.3-8.4-28.527.410.912.112.121.9[0,10][0,10]无要求-14.054.3136.9-54.5123.4-2.7-35.51.131.035.334.0-11.1-17.6-28.414.80.74.41.116.0第5类困境反转<-100>200加速-3.485.3227.3-66.1132.023.9-26.10.315.246.970.7-3.4-13.7-28.454.45.433.415.232.6<-100>100加速-13.071.9203.9-61.0150.97.4-30.20.015.937.370.8-9.0-21.1-29.623.812.925.712.926.9<-1000加速-17.163.4187.5-61.0136.81.1-30.50.012.040.970.7-9.9-23.4-32.315.97.620.77.622.5Wind23。图：五种增长类型的年度表现(表中数值为各年度符合增速与增速变化要求的标的，当年涨幅位于市场前30%的概率)分组上一年增速(%)本年增速(%)增速变化20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021中值均值第1类加速增长>100>100加速60%47%52%48%57%50%58%33%55%42%52%44%52%46%53%51%47%51%50%[50,100]0加速100%100%21%50%50%31%45%62%50%29%48%24%41%32%61%58%63%50%51%[30,50]0加速75%91%14%50%63%4545%668%56%56%74%74%4747%31%31%2020%36%36%70%70%57%57%43%41%50%52%第2类持续高增长>100>100无要求70%60%52%47%49%4343%高景气增长类型高景气增长类型39%48%47%53%42%54%42%4949%52%46%49%50%[50,100][50,100]无要求84%88%24%45%33%4040%45%63%44%36%49%28%45%45%57%57%57%53%45%49%[30,50][30,50]无要求80%86%35%45%30%45%60%60%68%32%30%33%51%68%59%47%41%47%51%第3类减速增长降0~1/300减速58%75%39%40%39%45%45%61%42%37%46%41%62%42%55%55%47%45%49%降1/3~1/200减速56%67%15%27%25%55%46%53%50%59%64%20%47%46%62%53%42%50%46%降1/2~2/300减速54%44%28%48%5%40%45%46%44%46%41%27%54%30%53%39%41%44%40%降2/3~10减速36%44%26%34%26%34%35%40%30%37%40%32%39%32%42%40%32%35%35%第4类低速稳定[20,30][20,30]无要求67%56%0%43%22%29%29%35%66%24%46%37%50%59%52%53%39%43%41%[10,20][10,20]无要求64%21%33%25%0%38%35%36%37%32%19%30%49%38%38%29%30%33%33%[0,10][0,10]无要求17%25%14%45%0%36%24%26%38%26%20%36%42%39%16%28%24%26%27%第5类困境反转<-100>200加速56%33%45%18%38%50%47%40%37%37%36%51%29%36%55%38%51%38%41%<-100>100加速32%25%38%18%44%37%45%36%34%34%37%40%25%34%38%42%45%37%36%<-1000加速25%20%33%17%38%33%40%34%31%34%37%37%22%28%31%35%38%33%31%Wind24•将年度扣非增速分10组，再将每组的增速变化率分为十档；统计2005年-2021年每组成份股涨幅的中位数，再取中位数。①增速水平足够高(第1-3组)，不管增速如何变化，上升或下降，其收益率基本都能稳定在较高水平。说明对于高增速的公率的边际变化容忍度较高，比如增速从100%下降至80%，变化率-20%，但其市场表现依然可以较好。②增速处于中下水平的分组(第7-10组)，即使其增速边际变化较高，也可能较难获利很高收益。③增速处于中游水平的公司(第5-6组)，表现不确定，增速上升幅度过大(可能有基数作用)或下降幅度过大(可能景气见顶)，一般表现不佳。图：【扣非增速；增速变化率】交叉分组与各组当年涨幅中位数的历史中值(表中数值为年度涨幅的历史均值，%)各组涨幅中位数(2005-2021年，中位数)【扣非增速】分10组，第1组到第10组，增速由高到低第1组第2组第3组第4组第5组第6组第7组第8组第9组第10组 (变化率=当期/上期-1)>100%19.112.713.412.013.10.9-6.0--50%~100%23.121.233.813.64.16.36.0-4.40.230%~50%17.930.039.620.021.217.8-0.6-2.8-16.22.620%~30%25.128.129.926.513.28.04.1-10.5-15.1-3.110%~20%41.625.217.624.924.7-6.94.60.77.4-1.80%~10%16.531.013.816.511.211.2-5.0-1.2-24.2-1.5-10%~0%20.527.747.028.725.810.8-7.78.86.7-20%~-10%41.736.825.122.012.416.97.4-7.7-13.1-10.4-50%~-20%41.918.118.525.316.59.810.111.5-12.0-12.8<-50%18.621.011.021.98.86.1-2.5-8.6-6.3Wind25幅降低幅降低•进一步讨论：哪类降速增长表现依然突出。首先，对T-1年增速>50%标的，按T年的增速降幅(降幅=本年/上年-1)分10档，降-100%。•可以发现规律：(1)增速边际回落，但维持较高增速的标的，仍有超额收益(第1组~第4组)；(2)第4组是临界线(增速图：高增速标的在不同增速降幅时的年度表现(表中数据为各组的年度涨幅中位数，%)组增速(%)年增速(%)20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021中值均值参照组[50,100][50,100]12.3253.6133.8-54.0156.26.8-29.024.136.937.492.8-12.6-8.5-31.644.143.636.936.943.7第1组(降幅最低).6.436.342.8第2组23.533.4第3组.320.344.6第4组.023.040.6第5组>25.1.323.635.1第6组>20617.027.4第7组>15.1.427.427.2第8组>1040.5，16.629.1第9组>55.216.026.8第10组(降幅最高)>08.722.1Wind26•另外，对T-1年增速>80%标的，同样按T年的增速降幅(降幅=本年/上年-1)分10档，降幅分别从-10%到-100%。•可以发现：(1)增速边际回落，但维持较高增速的标的，仍有超额收益(第1组~第5组)；(2)第5组是临界线(增速降幅小于50%)，当增速降幅超过50%时，表现显著变差；(3)高增长但降幅过大的标的，表现出了高增速的陷阱。一方面可能反应的图：高增速标的在不同增速降幅时的年度表现(表中数据为各组的年度涨幅中位数，%)组增速(%)本年度增速降幅20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021中值均值参照组[50,100]降12.3253.6133.8-54.0156.26.8-29.024.136.937.492.8-12.6-8.5-31.644.143.636.936.943.7第1组(降幅最低)-10%~0%.421.141.4第2组-20%~-10%.7.723.444.7第3组-30%~-20%.523.854.2第4组-40%~-30%.033.843.0第5组-50%~-40%.239.747.8第6组>80-60%~-50%23.332.0第7组>80-70%~-60%.117.933.6第8组>80-80%~-70%增回落幅度增回落幅度过0超 超收率大收率大降低，20.133.0第9组>80-90%~-80%6.213.526.4第10组(降幅最高)>80-100%~-90%9.922.2应用案例：关注第1象限的高景气行业22增速(E)右上角的行业还有：生产线设备、逆变器、储能设备、军工组件、风电-零部件、医美、新能源运营商增速高+降幅大增速高+降幅小22增速(E)右上角的行业还有：生产线设备、逆变器、储能设备、军工组件、风电-零部件、医美、新能源运营商新能源车-正极新能新能源车-电池半导体-材料新半导体-材料CXO光伏-辅材军光伏-辅材光伏-设备光伏-硅片新能源光伏-硅片半导体-设备半导体-设计0%半导体-设计0%输变电设备新能源车-负极30%工业互联网整车30%生命科学上游半导体-功率电风电半导体-制造半半导体-制造增速低+降幅大增速低+降幅小速变化率(22E相比21增速低+降幅大增速低+降幅小-50%-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-50%Wind28100%70%困境反转的爬坑模式：至少恢复【70%】100%70%•困境反转的赔率较高但胜率相对较低，因为底部反转的板块通常能获得盈利估值的双击，但节奏上和时间点相对不好把握。对于困境反转程度，我们用困境之后的利润恢复程度(爬坑幅度)来衡量。•【利润恢复程度】=(第3年)/(第1年)•其中，第1年为正常盈利年，第2年为盈利挖坑年，第3年为盈利恢复年。且净利润满足下列条件：①第2年<第1年、第3年>第2年；第3年>0；③第2年增速<-30%。第3年120%第1年盈利挖坑盈利盈利爬坑第2年Wind29困境反转的爬坑模式：至少恢复【70%】•针对2005-2020年各年度数据，按【利润恢复程度】分12组，统计每组当年的涨幅中位数。•有如下规律：(1)当年涨幅与利润恢复程度正相关；(2)利润恢复程度>120%，才能获得相对不错的收益(与上文高增长类型利润恢复程度不能低于70%，否则收益率将明显下滑。图：【困境反转】标的在不同利润恢复程度时的年度表现(表中数据为各组的年度涨幅，%)组利润恢复程度20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021值第1组>500%.9第2组20