全球资产配置+-+美联储面临的关键问题

要要2023年2月1日02美联储面临的关键问题14建议资产配置委员会GarryEvans首席全球资产配置策略师XiaoliTang经理副总裁JuanManuelCorreaOssaFelix-AntoineVezina-PoirierPeterBerezin总裁Listentoashortsummaryofthisreport%9UNEMPLOYMENTGAP**876543210%9876543210USP197019801990200020102020*DIFFERENCEBETWEENCOREPCEINFLATIONANDINFLATIONTARGETOF2%.**DIFFERENCEBETWEENUNEMPLOYMENTRATEANDLATESTNAIRUESTIMATES;SOURCE:BLS,CBO.NOTE:SHADINGAREASDENOTETHEPERIODSWHENTHEFEDISSEDITSINFLATIONTARGETBYMORETHANITSUNEMPLOYMENTTARGET.023年7月开始大幅降息是错ThisMonthionLastMonthionGlobalAssetAllocationCashFixedIncomeNeutralOverweightOverweightNeutralGlobalFixedIncomeDurationtmentGradeHigh-YieldOverweightUnderweightUnderweightNeutralNeutralNeutralCurrenciesNeutralOverweightOverweightNeutralCopyright©2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.JiaruiHanBCAResearch-Internal全球资产配置全球资产配置月度投资组合更新2023年2月1日02关键问题在整个周期内将个人联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)对中性失业%86420%8642USNDSRATEUSNDSRATE%86420%197019801990200020102020*DIFFERENCEBETWEENCOREPCEINFLATIONANDINFLATIONTARGETOF2%.**DIFFERENCEBETWEENUNEMPLOYMENTRATEANDLATESTNAIRUESTIMATES;SOURCE:BLS,CBO.NOTE:SHADINGAREASDENOTETHEPERIODSWHENTHEFEDISSEDITSINFLATIONTARGETBYMORETHANITSUNEMPLOYMENTTARGET.RecommendedAllocationGlobalGlobalAssetAllocationEquitiesFixedIncomeCashPortfolioVolatilityGlobalEquities*EuroAreaJapanCanadaAustraliaKChinaEMExChinaGlobalFixedIncome**GovernmentInvestmentGradeHigh-YieldEMDebtDurationInflation-linkedGlobalSectorsFinancialsInfoTechHealthcareCommunicationsServ.IndustrialsConsumerDisc.ConsumerStaplesEnergyMaterialsRealEstateUtilitiesAlternativesHedgeFundsRealEstatePrivateEquityFarmland/TimberlandStructuredProductsCommoditiesGoldCurrenciesUSDPAUDCADCHFCNYEMCurrenciesPreviousCurrent+++++++–––––––ECopyright©2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.JiaruiHanBCAResearch-Internal%%00%%00MarketbelievesFedwillcutby100BPsfromJuly2023toFebruary2024ERELATIVETONEUTRALRATEUSK全球资产配置月度投资组合更新2023年2月1日03关键问题%%USNDSRATEISEXPECTATIONS20232024年2月期间将降息100个基点(图2)。2020202120202021202220232024DERIVEDFROMOVERNIGHTINDEXSWAPSCURVE.免地在未来12个月内对经济增长构成下行在美国，ISM制造业和非制造业指数中的新订单分项指数上月大幅下挫(图5)。自2022(图6)。过去两个季度GDP增长强劲，但对国内私人购买者的实际最终销售额(一个更(图7)。1总体GDP以净进口计算，这意味着进口的增长会从GDP中扣1*PROXIEDBY5-YEAR/5-YEARFORWARDRATE.Copyright©2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.RefertolastJiaruiHanBCAResearch-Internalpageforanimportantdisclaimer.%%442200Ann%ChgAnn%ChgGGC00606%%442200Ann%ChgAnn%ChgGGC0060605500404030302023全球资产配置月度投资组合更新2023年2月1日04关键问题POLICYRATE:USCANADAAUSTRALIAEUROAREAJAPANUKSDERIVEDFROMOISCURVEUSCANADAAUSTRALIAEUROAREAJAPANUKJANAPRJULOCTJANAPRJULOCT20222023OVERNIGHTINDEXSWAPS.USEONOMICOR22016201820202022*SOURCE:INSTITUTEFOR2016201820202022*SOURCE:INSTITUTEFORSUPPLYMANAGEMENT.SOURCE:THECONFERENCEBOARD.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.Copyright©2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.JiaruiHanBCAResearch-28%20%%28%20%%8%%AVERAGEANNUALIZED1-MONTHREALTOTALS&P500RETURN%%%%USPRIVATEDOMESTICPURCHASERSBOANU442AVERAGEANNUALIZED1-MONTHREALTOTALS&P500RETURN%%%%USPRIVATEDOMESTICPURCHASERSBOANU44220000%%NERA20162018202020222024NOTE:BOTHSERIESARESHOWNASANNUALIZED1-QUARTER8866.5%20.7%6.7%2023REAL*TOTALS&P500RETURN MEANRETURNMEDIANRETURN 14.6%2.0% 6.6%3.3%0.6%LESSTHAN4%-5%5%-6%6%-8%MORE4%THAN8%UNEMPLOYMENTRATE%8444%全球资产配置月度投资组合更新2023年2月1日05关键问题US:LAD/SPPLYGAPUMPLOYMENTTE31960197019801990200020102020*DIFFERENCEBETWEENLABORDEMANDANDSUPPLYASAPERCENTAGEOFTHELABORSUPPLY.SOURCE:BUREAUOFLABORSTATISTICS,CONFERENCEBOARDANDBCACALCULATION.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.168420世纪50年代以来的最低水平，劳动力需求和供给之间的缺口超过2%(图8)。股市通常在失业率偏高时而非偏低时表现最佳 速攀升——Sahm规则指出，一旦失业率的384RCopyright©2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.JiaruiHanBCAResearch-0全球资产配置月度投资组合更新0全球资产配置月度投资组合更新2023年2月1日06关键问题0987654320%%E98