汶川地震经验教训

LessonsfromWenchuanEarthquakeDisasterinChina

PeijunSHIStateKeyLaboratoryofEarthSurfaceProcessesandResourceEcology(ESPRE)KeyLaboratoryofEnvironmentalChangeandNatureDisaster,MinistryofEducation(ECND)AcademyofDisasterReductionandEmergencyManagement,MOCandMOE(ADREM)BeijingNormalUniversityWORKINGSESSIONLessonsfromMegaDisasters,10.00to11.30,Sunday,15thMarch,2015,Sendai,Japan

WenchuanEarthquakeEarth-sufaceRuptureMapTheM>=4aftershockdistributionmap(uptoAugust9of2008)ThedestructivezoneoftheearthquakefaultthroughtheoldcityofBeichuanCounty

SecondaryDisastersInducedbyWenchuanEarthquake

Theinducedgeologicaldisasters:inducedbytheearthquakeandrainstorms,reaches9556,including5117landslides,3575rockfalls,358debrisflowsThesecondarydisasterssuchasbarrierlakes,damagedreservoirsanddamageddams:34barrierlakeswithdifferentlevelsofdanger,andtheTangjiashanBarrierLakenearthecountyseatofBeichuanCountywasofextremelyseveredanger;Over1800damagedreservoirsinSichuanprovince;DamsinSichuan,Chongqing,Shaanxi,GansuandYunnanwithalengthof1054kmweredamaged

LandslideandrockfallInducedbyWenchuanEarthquake

FieldInvestigationPointsHeavyRainRockCollapseLandslidesEarthquakeBarrierlakesDebrisFlowWenchuanEarthquakeDisasterChainsIntegratedemergencydisasterassessmentmapofWenchuanEarthquakeCasualties12:00ofJuly11,2008,theWenchuanEarthquakeinSichuanprovincehadcaused:69197deathtoll18341peoplemissing374176injured15.106billiontransferredandrelocated96445hospitalizedinjuredpeople,ofwhich88391peoplehavelefthospitalalready,and5405peopleremaininhospital3334peoplewhohadbeentransferredtootherprovincesfromSichuanprovinceTreatmentsofthesickandwoundedsummedupto2827552person-timesLosses(billionRMB)：853.0ResponsetotheWenchuanearthquakeTheStateCouncilissuedtheRegulationonPost-WenchuanEarthquakeRehabilitationandReconstruction.Itclarifiedthedetailedresponsibilitiesofgovernmentatalllevelsintherehabilitationandreconstructionaftertheearthquake.Inaccordwiththisregulation,anexpertearthquakerescuegroupwasestablishedtoinvestigateandevaluatetheearthquaketoprovidesupportfortheformulationofplansforpost-earthquakerehabilitationandreconstruction.Regulationonpost-Wenchuanearthquakerehabilitationandreconstruction(a)andWenchuanearthquakeimpactassessmentmap(b)Rebuilttown,ShuimoinWenchuan,SichuanProvinceResponsetotheWenchuanearthquakeTheregulationstatedthatthefinancialassistancegivenbytheprovincesormunicipalitiesshouldbenolessthan1%ofitslocalfiscalrevenueofthepreviousyear.Toexpressthecountry’scondolencestothevictimsoftheWenchuanearthquake,theStateCouncildeclaredMay19–212008tobeNationalGriefDay.TheresponsetotheWenchuanearthquakewasthefastestandlargestmobilizationofhelpinChinesehistory.Theguaranteesstatedinvariouspoliciesresultedinaverysuccessfulandeffectiverehabilitationandreconstructionprocess.Asaresult,within3years,thedisaster-hitarearecoveredandevensurpasseditspre-earthquakeeconomicandsocialdevelopmentstatus.Whatcommitmentsareexpectedtobeachieved?China’smainachievementsLessonsRecommendations

Establishedadisasterpreventionandreductionregime,mechanismsandlegalsystem

Improvedmonitoring,earlywarning,andriskassessmentEstablishedthedisasterinformationsharingserviceandapubliccampaignondisasterpreventionandreduction

StrengthenedtheclimatechangeresponseanddisasterriskgovernanceStrengthenedthedisasterpreparedness

China’smainachievementsAnatlasseriesonnaturaldisasterstosupportnationalandlocaldisasterpreventionandreduction

TheAtlasofNaturalDisastersinChina(1992)supportedthedevelopmentofthe2000–2005plan。TheAtlasofNaturalDisasterSystemofChina（2003）servedthedevelopmentoftheplanfor2005–2010.TheAtlasofNaturalDisasterRiskofChina

（2011）wasusedinthedevelopmentoftheplanfor2011–2015。

AtlasseriesofnaturaldisastersinChinaandWorld/atlas(13—19,March,2015)TheChineseexperienceinthepast25yearsillustratestheimportanceofthreesharedpoints:IdentificationoftheconceptofcomprehensivedisasterpreventionandreductioninstrategiesInclusionofgoalsforcomprehensivedisasterpreventionandreductioninnationalplansActionstostrengthenthetechnologicalsupportofcomprehensivedisasterpreventionandreduction.ThesynergybetweencentralandlocalgovernmentsrequiresfurtherimprovementThesynergybetweenurbanandruralareasshouldbefurtherstrengthenedThesynergybetweenthegovernmentandpublicstilllacksaninstitutionalguaranteeThesectoralmanagementanddisasterriskgovernancestillneedstobeintegratedLessons

2.2LessonslearnedAlthoughChinahasmadeclearprogressandgainedmanyachievementsincomprehensivedisasterpreventionandreduction,Chinaalsolearnedvaluablelessonsviathechallengesofvariousnaturaldisastersoverthepast25years.Therearesomeareasthatrequirestrengtheningandimprovementtofurtherreducetheriskofdisasters.ThesynergybetweencentralandlocalgovernmentsrequiresfurtherimprovementThedisasteremergencymanagementsystemcharacterizedby“unifiedleadership,comprehensivecoordination,categorizedmanagement,tieredresponsibility,andjurisdictionmanagement”shouldbefurtherimplemented.Thereexistuncoordinatedgoalsbetweensectoraldisastermanagementandintegratedriskgovernance.Acleardefinitionanddivisionofresponsibilitiesbetweencentralandlocalgovernmentsisyettoestablish.Thesynergytobefurtherstrengthenedtoovercomethedisadvantagesofdisperseddisastermanagementfunctionsinvarioussectorsisneeded.Thecopingcapacityforlarge-scaledisastersandemergingrisksstillremainsinadequate.ThesynergybetweenurbanandruralareasshouldbefurtherstrengthenedThereareobviousdifferencesbetweenruralandurbanareasintermsofdisastermonitoringandearlywarningsystems,communitypreparedness,emergencyresponseandpost-disasterrecovery,andreconstruction.Thisdualstructurelargelystemsfromlowlevelsofdisasterprotectioninruralareas(however,urbanareasenjoylittlemore),andrapidurbanization.Thus,thegapbetweenruralandurbanareasintermsofdisasterprevention,reduction,andreliefcapabilitiesfurtherincreases,whichreducestheefficiencyofdisasterpreventionandreductionefforts.Furthermore,ithinderstheprocessoftheurban-ruralintegrationandleadstothelowlevelofdisasterresponsecapabilitiesinurbanandruralareas.Thus,theurbanandruralcoordinationandcooperationmechanismofthecomprehensivedisasterprevention,reductionandreliefurgentlyneedstobestrengthened.ThesynergybetweenthegovernmentandpublicstilllacksaninstitutionalguaranteeAlthoughsocietyasawholesharesagrowingconcernaboutdisasterprevention,reduction,andrelief,thegovernmenthasnotofferedsystematicguidancenorstandardizedmanagement.Furthermore,existingpolicieslackoverallconsideration,andasaresultsocialforceshardlyplayaneffectiveroleincommunitydisasterreduction,emergencyrescue,andpost-disasterreliefandrecovery.Therefore,thesystemdesignintermsofthecoordinatedresponseofgovernmentandsocietyrequiresurgentattention,especiallyintheareasofdisasterreliefdonations,volunteerservices,andemergencyrequisitions.DisasterassessmentandinformationreleaserequriesfruhtercoordinationTherehasbeensignifcantimporvementindisastermonitoringandrapidassesementcapcity,butdisasdterinformaitonrelaserequiresfurhterenhancement.Aschemeistoestablishtoensurerapidreportingandrapidreleaseofdisasterinforamtion.Thegoalistohaveearly-monitoring,earlyacknowlegement,earlyreportingandearlyrelase.Thestrategyistofurhterimprovethecosiliencebetweenscieitificassessment,governmentcoordinationandpublicacitivtiyindisasterprevention,mitigationandrelief.ChallengesClimatechangeuncertaintiesleadtogreaterenvironmentalrisks

Globalwarming

IncreaseofextremeeventsEnvironmentalriskswillincreaseExposureandvulnerabilityarelikelytoincreaseUncertaintiesregardingclimatechangeanditsimpactSustainabledevelopmentisfacingchallengesfromemergingrisks

EnergyandwatersecurityareimportantcomponentsofresourcesafetyFoodsecurityisfoundationofeconomicandsocialsafetyTerrestorialecosystemstabilityisthekeystoneofdisasterpreventionandreduction.ProtectionofcoastalzoneishighlylinkedtoresourceandecologicalsafetyChallengesfromgloballynetworkeddisastersDistributionofFutureHigh-temperature,DroughtandFloodRiskLevelsinChinaunderEmissionScenarioRCP8.5[19](Redcolordenoteshighestrisklevel,andlightbluecolordenoteslowestrisklevel)TheglobalizationoftheinfluenceofdisastersIncorporateeconomicdevelopment,lifestyle,andecosystemservicestobetteradapttothechangingenvironmentPromoteagreeneconomystrategybybalancingeffortstomitigatedisasterlossandenhancebenefits

Comprehensivedisasterriskpreventionparadigmunderthestrategyof“commonworld,commonexistence,commondevelopment”RecommendationsPromotingtheintegrationofcopingwithclimatechangeanddisasterpreventionandreductionAcceleratethetransitionofeconomicgrowthpatternswithafocusonstructureadjustmentsupportedbyinnovationanddevelopmentinscienceandtechnology.Establishadiversifiedenergysecurityandsupplychainsystem

toefficientlyreducethenegativeimpactsoflarge-scaledisasterrisks.Comprehensivelyimprovenationalandlocaldisasterrisksharingcapabilitiesbyestablishinga“globallarge-scaledisasterriskfinancialmanagementsystem”torealizetheriskdiversificationandsharingintheglobalcontext.RecommendationsPromotingtheintegrationofcopingwithclimatechangeanddisasterpreventionandHolisticallyimprovenationalandregionalriskgovernancecapacityforlarge-scaledisastersGreenEconomyClimateChangeCatastropheRiskVegetationEconomyExtremeClimateEventsIncreasePreventMitigateCarbonSinkInterrelationsbetweenclimatechange,greeneconomy,anddisasterriskAcceleratethetransitionofeconomicgrowthpatternswithafocusonstructureadjustmentsupportedbyinnovationanddevelopmentinscienceandtechnology.Establishadiversifiedenergysecurityandsupplychainsystem

toefficientlyreducethenegativeimpactsoflarge-sca