金融市场与净现值报告

ChapterOutline3.1TheFinancialMarketEconomy3.2MakingConsumptionChoicesOverTime3.3TheCompetitiveMarket3.4TheBasicPrinciple3.5PracticingthePrinciple3.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision3.7CorporateInvestmentDecision‑Making3.8SummaryandConclusions3.1TheFinancialMarketEconomyIndividualsandinstitutionshavedifferentincomestreamsanddifferentintertemporalconsumptionpreferences.Becauseofthis,amarkethasarisenformoney.Thepriceofmoneyistheinterestrate.TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExampleConsideradentistwhoearns$200,000peryearandchoosestoconsume$80,000peryear.Hehas$120,000insurplusmoneytoinvest.Hecouldloan$30,000toeachof4collegeseniors.Theyeachpromisetopayhimbackwithinterestaftertheygraduateinoneyear.DentistStudent#1Student#2Student#3Student#4$30,000$30,000$30,000$30,000$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExampleRatherthanperformingthecreditanalysis4times,hecouldloanthewhole$120,000toafinancialintermediaryinreturnforapromisetorepaythe$120,000inoneyearwithinterest.Theintermediaryinturnloans$30,000toeachofthe4collegeseniors.Student#1Student#2Student#3Student#4$30,000$30,000$30,000Bank$120,000Dentist$30,000$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$120,000×(1+r)TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExampleFinancialintermediationcantakethreeforms:SizeintermediationIntheexampleabove,thebanktookalargeloanfromthedentistandmadesmallloanstothestudents.TermintermediationCommercialbanksfinancelong-termmortgageswithshort-termdeposits.RiskintermediationFinancialintermediariescantailortheriskcharacteristicsofsecuritiesforborrowersandlenderswithdifferentdegreesofrisktolerance.MarketClearingThejobofbalancingthesupplyofanddemandforloanablefundsistakenbythemoneymarket.Whenthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded,themarketisinequilibriumattheequilibriumprice.Thepriceofmoneyistheinterestrate.3.2MakingConsumptionChoicesoverTimeAnindividualcanalterhisconsumptionacrosstimeperiodsthroughborrowingandlending.Wecanillustratethisbygraphingconsumptiontodayversusconsumptioninthefuture.Thisgraphwillshowintertemporalconsumptionopportunities.IntertemporalConsumptionOpportunitySet$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayApersonwith$95,000whofacesa10%interestratehasthefollowingopportunityset.Onechoiceavailableistoconsume$40,000now;investtheremaining$55,000;consume$60,000nextyear.$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000Consumptionatt+1IntertemporalConsumptionOpportunitySet$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1Anotherchoiceavailableistoconsume$60,000now;investtheremaining$35,000;consume$38,500nextyear.TakingAdvantageofOurOpportunities$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1Aperson’spreferenceswilltendtodecidewhereontheopportunitysettheywillchoosetobe.Ms.PatienceMs.ImpatienceChangingOurOpportunities$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1Ariseininterestrateswillmakesavingmoreattractive………andborrowinglessattractive.Consideraninvestorwhohaschosentoconsume$40,000nowandtoconsume$60,000nextyear.3.3TheCompetitiveMarketInacompetitivemarket:Tradingiscostless.InformationaboutborrowingandlendingisavailableTherearemanytraders;noindividualcanmovemarketprices.Therecanbeonlyoneequilibriuminterestrateinacompetitivemarket—otherwisearbitrageopportunitieswouldarise.3.4TheBasicPrincipleThebasicfinancialprincipleofinvestmentdecisionmakingisthis:Aninvestmentmustbeatleastasdesirableastheopportunitiesavailableinthefinancialmarkets.3.5PracticingthePrinciple:ALendingExampleConsideraninvestmentopportunitythatcosts$50,000thisyearanprovidesacertaincashflowof$54,000nextyear.Isthisagooddeal?Itdependsontheinterestrateavailableinthefinancialmarkets.Theinvestmenthasan8%return,iftheinterestrateavailableelsewhereislessthanthis,investhere.CashinflowsTimeCashoutflows01-$50,000$54,0003.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecisionConsideraninvestorwhohasaninitialendowmentofincomeof$40,000thisyearand$55,000nextyear.Supposethathefacesa10-percentinterestrateandisofferedthefollowinginvestment.CashinflowsTimeCashoutflows01-$25,000$30,0003.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayOurinvestorbeginswiththefollowingopportunityset:endowmentof$40,000today,$55,000nextyearanda10%interestrate.Onechoiceavailableistoconsume$15,000now;investtheremaining$25,000inthefinancialmarketsat10%;consume$82,500nextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$15,000$90,0003.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayAbetteralternativewouldbetoinvestintheprojectinsteadofthefinancialmarkets.Hecouldconsume$15,000now;investtheremaining$25,000intheprojectat20%;consume$85,000nextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$85,000$15,000$90,000Withborrowingorlendinginthefinancialmarkets,hecanachieveanypatternofcashflowshewants—anyofwhichisbetterthanhisoriginalopportunities.3.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayNotethatwearebetteroffinthatwecancommandmoreconsumptiontodayornextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$85,000$15,000$101,500$101,500=$15,000××(1.10)+$85,000$92,273=$15,000+$85,000÷÷(1.10)$90,000$92,273NetPresentValueWecancalculatehowmuchbetteroffintoday’’sdollartheinvestmentmakesusbycalculatingtheNetPresentValue:.CashinflowsTimeCashoutflows01-$25,000$30,0003.7CorporateInvestmentDecision‑MakingShareholderswillbeunitedintheirpreferenceforthefirmtoundertakepositivenetpresentvaluedecisions,regardlessoftheirpersonalintertemporalconsumptionpreferences.CorporateInvestmentDecision‑MakingConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1PositiveNPVprojectsshifttheshareholder’sopportunitysetout,whichisunambiguouslygood.AllshareholdersagreeontheirpreferenceforpositiveNPVprojects,whethertheyareborrowersorlenders.3.7CorporateInvestmentDecision‑MakingInreality,shareholdersdonotvoteoneveryinvestmentdecisionfacedbyafirmandthemanagersoffirmsneeddecisionrulestooperateby.AllshareholdersofafirmwillbemadebetteroffifmanagersfollowtheNPVrule—undertakepositiveNPVprojectsandrejectnegativeNPVprojects.TheSeparationTheoremTheseparationtheoreminfinancialmarketssaysthatallinvestorswillwanttoacceptorrejectthesameinvestmentprojectsbyusingtheNPVrule,regardlessoftheirpersonalpreferences.Logistically,separatinginvestmentdecisionmakingfromtheshareholdersisabasicrequirementofthemoderncorporation.3.8SummaryandConclusionsFinancialmarketsexistbecausepeoplewanttoadjusttheirconsumptionovertime.Theydothisbyborrowingorlending.Aninvestmentshouldberejectedifasuperioralternativeexistsinthefinancialmarkets.Ifnosuperioralternativeexistsinthefinancialmarkets,aninvestmenthasapositivenetpresentvalue.9、静夜四无无邻，荒居居旧业贫。。。12月-2212月-22Saturday,December31,202210、雨中黄黄叶树，，灯下白白头人。。。16:00:3216:00:3216:0012/31/20224:00:32PM11、以我独沈久久，愧君相见见频。。12月-2216:00:3216:00Dec-2231-Dec-2212、故人江海别别，几度隔山山川。。16:00:3216:00:3216:00Saturday,December31,202213、乍乍见见翻翻疑疑梦梦，，相相悲悲各各问问年年。。。。12月月-2212月月-2216:00:3216:00:32December31,202214、他他乡乡生生白白发发，，旧旧国国见见青青山山。。。。31十十二二月月20224:00:32下下午午16:00:3212月月-2215、比不不了得得就不不比，，得不不到的的就不不要。。。。十二月月224:00下下午午12月月-2216:00December31,202216、行动出出成果，，工作出出财富。。。2022/12/3116:00:3216:00:3231December202217、做前，能够够环视四周；；做时，你只只能或者最好好沿着以脚为为起点的射线线向前。。4:00:32下午4:00下下午16:00:3212月-229、没有失败败，只有暂暂时停止成成功！。12月-2212月-22Saturday,December31,202210、很多事情情努力了未未必有结果果，但是不不努力却什什么改变也也没有。。。16:00:3216:00:3216:0012/31/20224:00:32PM11、成功就是日日复一日那一一点点小小努努力的积累。。。12月-2216:00:3216:00Dec-2231-Dec-2212、世间间成事事，不不求其其绝对对圆满满，留留一份份不足足，可可得无无限完完美。。。16:00:3216:00:3216:00Saturday,December31,202213、不知香积积寺，数里里入云峰。。。12月-2212月-2216:00:3216:00:32December31,202214、意志坚强的的人能把世界界放在手中像像泥块一样任任意揉捏。31十二月月20224:00:32下午16:00:3212月-2215、楚塞塞三湘湘接，，荆门门九派派通。。。。十二月月224:00下下午午12月月-2216:00December31,202216、少少年年十十五五二二十十时时，，步步行行夺夺得得胡胡马马骑骑。。。。2022/12/3116:00:3216:00:3231December202217、空空山山新新雨雨后后，，天天气气晚晚来