十一diffusionofinnovations创新的扩散

十一diffusionofinnovations创新的扩散11.创新的扩散

Diffusionofinnovations11.1创新的扩散研究11.2创新的特征11.3创新者的特征11.4环境思考：是什么因素促使你使用互联网？请列举。思考：你是否通过网上购物？如果是，请列举促使你使用网络购物的原因如果不是，请列举不通过网上购物的原因11.1创新的扩散研究创新扩散模型是对创新采用的各类人群进行研究归类的一种模型理论思想：在创新面前，部分人会比另一部分人思想更开放，更愿意采纳创新这个模型也被称之为创新扩散理论（DiffusionofInnovationsTheory），或多步创新流动理论（Multi-StepFlowTheory）创新采用曲线（InnovationAdoptionCurve）创新的扩散“创新扩散理论”是美国学者埃弗雷特•罗杰斯（E.M.Rogers）提出的埃弗雷特·罗杰斯认为创新是：“一种被个人或其他采纳单位视为新颖的观念、时间或事物。”思考：哪些东西可称作创新？创新的扩散一项创新应具备相对的便利性兼容性复杂性可靠性可感知性另一美国学者罗杰•菲德勒则认为创新还应当包括“熟悉”这一要素创新的扩散罗杰斯把创新的采用者分为革新者早期采用者早期追随者晚期追随者落后者创新扩散包括五个阶段了解阶段：接触新技术新事物，但知之甚少。兴趣阶段：发生兴趣，并寻求更多的信息。评估阶段：联系自身需求，考虑是否采纳。试验阶段：观察是否适合自己的情况。采纳阶段：决定在大范围内实施。创新扩散创新扩散被定义为以一定的方式随时间在社会系统的各种成员间进行传播的过程扩散过程就由创新传播渠道时间社会系统四个要素组成由此可见，传播渠道成为其中一个重要的环节。创新扩散创新扩散的传播过程可以用一条“S”形曲线来描述在扩散的早期，采用者很少，进展速度也很慢当采用者人数扩大到居民的10%~25%时，进展突然加快，曲线迅速上升并保持这一趋势，即所谓的“起飞期“在接近饱和点时，进展又会减缓。整个过程类似于一条“S”形的曲线创新扩散在创新扩散过程中，早期采用者为后来的起飞作了必要的准备。这个看似“势单力薄”的群体能够在人际传播中发挥很大的作用，劝说他人接受创新（马云的例子）创新扩散在罗杰斯看来，早期采用者就是愿意率先接受和使用创新事物并甘愿为之冒风险那部分人这些人不仅对创新初期的种种不足有着较强的忍耐力，还能够对自身所处各群体的意见领袖展开“游说“，使之接受以至采用创新产品之后，创新又通过意见领袖们迅速向外扩散。这样，创新距其“起飞期“的来临已然不远创新扩散罗杰斯指出，创新事物在一个社会系统中要能继续扩散下去，首先必须有一定数量的人采纳这种创新物通常，这个数量是人口的10％-20%创新扩散比例一旦达到临界数量，扩散过程就起飞，进入快速扩散阶段饱和点（saturatedpoint）的概念是指创新在社会系统中一般不总能100％扩散创新扩散事实上，很多创新在社会系统中最终只能扩散到某个百分比。当系统中的创新采纳者再也没有增加时，系统中的创新采纳者数量（绝对数量表示）或创新采纳者比例（相对数量表示），就是该创新扩散的饱和点。创新扩散罗杰斯认为，创新扩散总是借助一定的社会网络进行的，在创新向社会推广和扩散的过程中，信息技术能够有效地提供相关的知识和信息，但在说服人们接受和使用创新方面，人际交流则显得更为直接、有效创新扩散因此，创新推广的最佳途径是将信息技术和人际传播结合起来加以应用思考：如果面试时你要帮一家公司，例如佛山移动公司设计动感地带推广方案，你如何设计？（理论的功能）创新扩散创新扩散理论是多级传播模式在创新领域的具体运用在创新向社会推广和扩散的过程中，大众传播能够有效地提供相关的知识和信息，而在说服人们接受和使用创新方面，人际传播则显得更为直接、有效因此，罗杰斯认为，推广创新的最佳途径是“双管齐下“将大众传播和人际传播结合起来加以应用创新扩散“S”形曲线理论在市场营销、广告推广、产品代谢以及媒介生命周期的研究方面都得到了承认，有着广阔的应用前景。Rogers创新采用曲线创新扩散研究的五个焦点对创新成果采用与否有重要影响的创新活动自身的特征人们在考虑一个新主意、一件新产品或一项新项目时所采取的决策过程采用创新人群的一些个人特征个人或社会采用创新的后果和影响采用创新过程中的沟通渠道创新采用曲线类别创新者（Innovators）他们是勇敢的先行者，自觉推动创新。创新者在创新交流过程中，发挥着非常重要的作用。早期采用者（EarlyAdopters）他们是受人尊敬的社会人士，是公众意见领袖，他们乐意引领时尚、尝试新鲜事物，但行为谨慎。早期采用人群（EarlyMajority）他们是有思想的一群人，也比较谨慎，但他们较之普通人群更愿意、更早地接受变革。创新采用曲线类别后期采用人群（LateMajority）他们是持怀疑态度的一群人，只有当社会大众普遍接受了新鲜事物的时候，他们才会采用。迟缓者（Laggards）他们是保守传统的一群人，习惯于因循守旧，对新鲜事物吹毛求疵，只有当新的发展成为主流、成为传统时，他们才会被动接受创新采用曲线的运用Rogers的创新采用曲线说明，试图快速印证、广泛采用全新的、争议中的创新主意，是不现实的促进创新采用的最好的方法是，首先说服创新者与早期采用者在沟通过程中，还可以结合创新类别与采用百分比，更为准确地估计目标群体11.1创新的扩散研究BarbaraWejnert(2002):Integratingmodelsofdiffusionofinnovations:AConceptualFramework,AnnualReviewofSociology,28:297–326扩散的定义Whatisadiffusion? “Diffusionistheprocessbywhichaninnovationiscommunicatedthroughcertainchannelsovertime

amongthemembersofasocialsystem.”--EverettRogers(1995)DiffusionofInnovation,4thed.创新的扩散Diffusionofinnovationsreferstothespreadofabstractideasandconcepts（例如民主的扩散、西学东渐、马克思主义引入中国）technicalinformation（互联网、短信）actualpractices（买“码”）Thespreaddenotestheflowormovementfromasourcetoanadopter,typicallyviacommunicationandinfluence(Rogers1995)创新的采纳者Communicationandinfluencealteranadopter’sprobabilityofadoptinganinnovationAnactormaybeanysocietalentity,includingIndividualsGroupsOrganizationsNationalpolities创新的扩散：研究的意义StudiesofdiffusionAnempiricalandquantitativebasisfordevelopingmorerigorousapproachestotheoriesofsocialchange(e.g.,newconceptualandmathematicalexplanationsofsocialchange)(DeFleur1966)Oftenusedinassessmentsofworldeconomicandpoliticaldevelopments创新的扩散研究特征跨学科的特征SociologyEconomicsPoliticalscienceCommunication过往关于创新扩散的研究Iowa农民使用杂交玉米（hybrid-cornuseamongIowafarmers）（Ryan&Gross，1943），之后4000多篇论文发表农业实践（agriculturalpractices）(Fliegel1993,Griliches1957)技术(technologies)(Burt1987,Colemanetal.1966,Palmeretal.1993)过往关于创新扩散的研究节育方式(fertility-controlmethods)(Rogers&cKincaid1981,Rosero-Bixby&Casterline1994)政策创新(policyinnovations)(Berry&cBerry1992,Boli-Bennett&Ramirez1987,Valente1995)政治改革(politicalreforms)(Meyer1987,Starr1991)影响扩散的变量CharacteristicsofinnovationsCharacteristicsofinnovatorsEnvironmentalcontext11.2创新的特征characteristicsoftheinnovationCharacteristicsofinnovationspublicversusprivateconsequencesbenefitsversuscosts创新的特征之一：公众后果vs.私人后果Privatevs.publicconsequencesrefertotheimpactofaninnovation’sadoptiononentitiesotherthantheactor(publicconsequences）versusthattheactoritself(privateconsequences)公众后果Innovationsthatresultinpublicconsequencesinvolvecollectiveactors—countries,stateswithincountries,andorganizationsandsocialmovements—mostlyconcernedwithissuesofsocietalwell-beingAmongsuchinnovationsarePoliticalmodelsofdemocracy(Uhlin1995,Wejnert2001)Welfareandeducationpolicies(Thomas&Lauderdale1987,Boli-Bennett&Meyer1978)Statelaws(Berry&Berry1990,1992)私人后果Innovationswithprivateconsequencesaffectthewell-beingofadoptersthatareeitherIndividualssmallcollectiveentitiessuchasorganizations,peergroups,andruralcommunities.Theseinnovationsareintendedtoimprovethequalityofindividuallivesortoreformorganizationalandsocialstructures创新过程的决定因素创新来源（thesourceofaninnovation）与采纳者（adopter）之间的互动机制（mechanismsofinteraction）决定创新过程Innovationswithpublicconsequences：采纳的因素ITheinformationandimitativemodelsareuniformlydistributedaroundtheworldThenorms,values,orexpectationsaboutcertainformsorpracticesbecomedeeplyingrainedinsociety—institutionalized—andreflectwidespreadandsharedunderstandingsofsocialreality(Meyer&Rowan1977:343)例如：rapidspreadofmasseducationsocialsecuritysystemsmodelsofnation-statesamongtheworld’spoliticalstatesInnovationswithpublicconsequences：采纳的因素IIMediabecomesachannelofinfluenceonadoptionprimarilywhentheinnovationsarepopular,well-definedsocietalissues民主模式的扩散AdoptionofdemocracymodelTheinstitutionalizationofdemocracyMediaCountryto-countryinteraction带来私人后果的创新的扩散Thespatialandtemporalcontiguity（接近）betweenasourceofanewpracticeandapotentialadopter带来私人后果的创新的扩散AdoptionofaninnovationwithprivateconsequencesThepressureofsocialnetworksSpatialeffectsgeographicproximityinterpersonalcommunicationinstitutionalorindividualcoercion创新的特征之二：Benefitsvs.costsCost：monetaryandnonmonetarydirectandindirectcosts,orrisksassociatedwiththeadoptionofaninnovationDirectcosts,orfinancialuncertainty：patentsofindustrialinnovation,newagriculturalseeds,fertilizersorequipment,computer-operatedmachines,satelliteantennas,orreformofsocialpoliciesIndirectcosts,ortechnicaluncertainty：timespentonretrainingalaborforcetouseaninnovation;socialcostsuchasinnovation-inducedsocialconflict（例如计划生育在农村社会的冲突）11.3CharacteristicsofInnovatorsCharacteristicsofinnovatorssocietalentityfamiliaritywiththeinnovationstatuscharacteristicssocioeconomiccharacteristicspositioninsocialnetworkspersonalcharacteristics创新者特征之一：Societalentityofinnovators创新者的划分LargecollectiveactorsSmallcollectiveactorsIndividualactors创新者的影响变量thetypeofinnovationselectedforadoptionthenatureofinteractionsbetweenthesourceofaninnovationandanadoptertheimportanceofstrongvs.weaksocialtiesinadoptionthemacrovs.microcharacterofadoptionoutcomesAdoptionsbylargecollectiveactors创新的类型：大规模的历史变革educationalmodelswelfarepolicieslandreformmodelsdemocracymodelspatentlawsstatepolicySmallcollectiveactorsSmallcollectiveactors包括：firmnetworksOrganizationsgroupsoffriends采纳的创新multinationalenterprise(MNE)strategybymaturemotorvehicleindustriesthestyleofmanagementofnewlymergedindustrialunitsstrategiesofviolenceadoptedbyyouthgangmembersIndividualactors成员是否采纳创新很大程度上取决于interactionsthroughstrongties,suchasthecommunitytiesandface-to-faceinteractionsthenetworkconnectednessthatfacilitatesinterpersonalinteractionscompatibilitybetweenthecharacteristicsofaninnovationandtheneedsofanactor创新者特征之二：Familiaritywiththeinnovationtherateofadoptionofaninnovation—allotherfactorsbeingequal—increasesasitsnoveltydecreases(Greve1998)提高创新熟悉度的方法mediainformationtheopinionofexpertsobservingtheoutcomesofotheractorsinformationobtainedfromclosepeerslocatedinsocialandorganizationalnetworks创新者特征之三：StatuscharacteristicsCollectiveactorswithhighstatususuallyadoptaninnovationfirstandthenimposeadoptionoftheinnovationonlowerstatusactorsLoweconomicstatusofthirdworldcountriesdramaticallyslowedtheworldwidediffusionofmodernagriculturalpracticesHigh-statuscollectiveactorscanalsoaffectindividualadoptions:例如发展中国家，政府对那些采用新的农业技术的农民提供补贴创新者特征之三：StatuscharacteristicsThepredictivepowerofanindividualactor’sstatusonadoptionofaninnovationvariespositivelywiththeprominenceoftheactor’spositioninanetworkWeimann&Brosius(1994)arguedthatanactor’sstatuscharacteristicsinteractwithmediaeffectsbecausemediamainlyaffecthigh-statusmemberswhoidentifyinnovationsandthenspreadthemwithinagroupoflower-statusmembers创新者特征之四：socioeconomiccharacteristicsTwocategoriesofsocioeconomicvariablesEconomicSociodemographicIndividualactorvariablesEducationlevelEconomicwell-beingCosmopolitanism创新者特征之四：socioeconomiccharacteristicsVariablesofcollectiveactorsDegreeoftechnologicaladvancementGNPLevelofdevelopment(developedvs.developingcountries)FinancialresourcesCentrallyplannedversusmarketeconomiesPoliticalsystemLabormarketpractice创新者特征之五：positioninsocialnetworks(a)interpersonalnetworksforindividualactors(b)organizationalnetworksforcollectiveactors(c)structuralequivalenceofindividualandcollectiveactors(d)socialdensity(a)InterpersonalnetworksforindividualactorsDirectinteractionsbetweenindividualssignificantlyaccountedforadoptionofavarietyofinnovationsAdoptionbysomeactorshasacumulativeeffectontheadoptiondecisionsofotheractorsinthesocialnetworkAdoptionisbetteraccountedforasanetworkbaseddecision,whereexposuretoaninnovationthroughanetworkofpeershasacumulativelyincreasinginfluenceonadoptionaspressuretowardconformitybuildsandasrisksperceivedbypotentialadoptersdecrease(b)OrganizationalnetworksforcollectiveactorsSwan&Newell(1995)arguedthatthenetworkofprofessionalorganizationswasthesinglemostinfluentialvariableindeterminingtheadoptionofnewtechnologybyfirmsChaves(1996)indicatedthattheexistenceofreligiousnetworksalmostdoubledtheprobabilityofadoptionofthepracticeofordinationofwomen组织网络如何影响采纳Informative，bywhichmemberslearnofthenewestindustrialdevelopmentsConducive,facilitatingcontactwithformeradoptersEducational,providingprofessionaladvisingonnewdevelopmentsCoercive,usingexplicitorimplicitrewardsornegativecontingenciestoproduceconformityandcompliancewithrespecttoadoptivebehaviorModeling,providingstandard,uniformmodelsofcorrectdecisions(c)StructuralequivalenceofindividualandcollectiveactorsStructuralequivalenceofmembersinanetwork是指anactor’sperceptionofconcordancewithothermembersinasocialand/ororganizationalnetwork,particularlyofcomparableeconomicandsocialstatus这一因素modulatesadoptionofinnovationsbecauseitaffectshomogeneityofadopters’behaviors个人的结构对等决定因素Forindividuals,structuralequivalenceisdeterminedby(a)demographicfactorssuchassex,age,race,ethnicity,maritalstatus,andeducation(b)socialindicatorslikeeducationandoccupation(c)culture,suchassimilarityoflanguage,culturaltradition,religion,self-identity,values,andnorms集体的结构对等决定因素(a)economicfactors—levelofwealthoreconomicsystem(b)culturalfactorssuchashistoricalbackground(c)behavioralfactors,e.g.,similaritiesofactionorstrategy结构对等在创新采纳上的解释力Abbott&DeViney(1992)demonstratedthatthestructuralequivalencebetweenstatescontributedmorethantwiceasmuchasallotherselectedvariablestothepredictabilityofadoptionofwelfarepolicyStructuralequivalencemayfacilitateadoptionbyactivatingactorcompetition(d)Socialdensity（社会浓度/密度）Socialdensityreferstothedensityofexistingadoptionswithinanorganization,wherethegreaterthedensityofadopters,thelesstheperceivedriskofadoptingbynon-adoptersHowever,asHannan&Freeman(1987)argued,thecumulativenumberofadoptionswithinanorganization,orwithinaunitofanorganization,promotesnewadoptionsuptoacriticalpointofexhaustionofresources,afterwhichtheadoptionratedecreases(Hannan&Freeman1987)创新者特征之六：personalcharacteristics心理强势：psychologicalstrengthPsychologicallystrongactorsselectthemostimportantinnovationsfromtheabundanceofinformationcoveredbythemedia,rapidlyadoptthoseinnovations,andusingtheirownsocialnetworks,createapublicagendathatsignificantlypromotesadoption个人特征的影响因素：社会文化/例如美国文化与日本文化的差异11.4环境情境Environmentalcontext(a)geographicsettings(b)societalculture(c)politicalconditions(d)globalizationanduniformity(a)geographicsettings地理因素GeographicalsettingsaffectadoptionbyinfluencingtheapplicabilityoftheinnovationtotheecologicalinfrastructuresofthepotentialadopterClimateWeathersoilconditionsandbyexertingspatialeffectsofgeographicalproximity：anautomaticspreadofinnovationsbetweenindividualactorswhoareinclosegeographicalcontiguity,suchaswithinruralorurbancommunitiesorcountieslocatedwithinthesamegeographicalregionb)societalculture社会文化信仰体系Beliefsystems(values,norms,language,religion,ideologies)(innovationsconflictingwithculturalnormsareadoptedonlybyarelativelysmallpercentageofindividualactorswhoarepotentialadopters)文化传统主义culturaltraditionalism(socialinertiainadoptingnewpracticesandideas,adverselyaffectingacountry’sadoptionoftechnologicaldevelopmentsandextendingthetimebet