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Chapter3

MacroeconomicpolicyinanopeneconomyChapter3

Macroeconomicpoli13.1TheproblemofinternalandexternalbalanceMuchofthe1950sand1960sliteraturewasconcernedwithhowtheauthoritiesmightsimultaneouslyachievebothinternalandexternalbalance.3.1Theproblemofinternalan2Figure3.1TheSwandiagramFigure3.1TheSwandiagram3TheSwandiagramisdividedintofourzonesdepictingdifferentpossiblestatesforaneconomy:Zone1–adeficitandinflationarypressures.Zone2–adeficitanddeflationarypressures.Zone3–asurplusanddeflationarypressures.Zone4–asurplusandinflationarypressure.TheSwandiagramisdividedin4ThismodelowesitsoriginstopaperspublishedbyJamesFleming(1962)andRobertMundell(1962,1963).TheirmajorcontributionwastoincorporateinternationalcapitalmovementsintoformalmacroeconomicmodelsbasedontheKeynesianIS-LMframework.3.2TheMundell-FlemingmodelThismodelowesitsoriginsto5国际金融(英文版)Chapter-3-Macroeconomic-Policy-in-an-Open-Economy[精]课件6国际金融(英文版)Chapter-3-Macroeconomic-Policy-in-an-Open-Economy[精]课件7InternalandexternalbalanceunderfixedexchangeratesAsituationoffixedexchangeratesandunemploymentisdepictedinfigure3.4.Internalandexternalbalance8Figure3.4

InternalandexternalbalanceunderafixedexchangerateFigure3.4

Internalandexter9InternalandexternalbalanceunderfloatingexchangeratesFigure3.5illustratesthecaseofmonetaryexpansionunderfloatingexchangerates.Internalandexternalbalance10Figure3.5

AmonetaryexpansionunderfloatingexchangeratesFigure3.5

Amonetaryexpansi11FiscalexpansionunderfloatingexchangeratesTheeffectsofafiscalexpansionontheexchangerateunderfloatingratesdependcruciallyupontheslopeoftheBPschedulerelativetotheLMschedule.Fiscalexpansionunderfloatin12Figure3.6

Case1:fiscalexpansionunderfloatingexchangeratesFigure3.6

Case1:fiscalexp13Figure3.7

Case2:fiscalexpansionunderfloatingexchangeratesFigure3.7

Case2:fiscalexp14

AsmallopeneconomywithperfectcapitalmobilityThemodelassumesasmallcountryfacingperfectcapitalmobility.Anyattempttoraisethedomesticinterestrateleadstoamassivecapitalinflowtopurchasedomesticbondspushingupthepriceofbondsuntiltheinterestratereturnstotheworldinterestrate.Asmallopeneconomywithper15Figure3.8

FixedexchangeratesandperfectcapitalmobilityFigure3.8

Fixedexchangerat16Figure3.9

Floatingexchangeratesandperfectcapitalmobility

Figure3.9

Floatingexchange17Theprincipleofeffectivemarketclassification

Mundell(1968)suggestedthatwhathecalledtheprincipleofeffectivemarketclassificationshouldbeusedbyeconomicpolicy-makersinconjunctionwithTinbergen’sinstruments-targetsrule.Mundell’sprinciplestatedthat‘Policiesshouldbepairedwiththeobjectivesonwhichtheyhavethemostinfluence’.Theprincipleofeffectivemar18Figure3.10TheassignmentproblemFigure3.10Theassignmentpro19

LimitationsoftheMundell-Flemingmodel--TheMarshall-Lernercondition--Interactionofstocksandflow--Neglectoflong-runconstraints--Wealtheffects--Neglectofsupply-sidefactors--Treatmentofcapitalflows--Exchange-rateexpectations--FlexibilityofpolicyinstrumentsLimitationsoftheMundell-Fl203.3ConclusionsInthischapterwehaveillustratedsomeimportantaspectsconcerningtheconductofeconomicpolicyinanopeneconomy.Amongthemostimportantlessonsforeconomicpolicy-makersisthattheygenerallyneedasmanyindependentpolicyinstrumentsastheyhavetargets.3.3ConclusionsInthischapter21Intherealworldtheachievementofinternalandexternalbalancewillbefarmoredifficultthatourtheoreticalanalysishassuggested.Wehaveseenthattherelativeeffectivenessoffiscalandmonetarypolicyisverymuchdependentuponthechoiceofexchange-rateregime.AlthoughtheMundell-Flemingmodelhasmanylimitationsitnonethelessfocusesattentiononthedifficultiesanddilemmasfacingpolicy-makersinanopeneconomy.Intherealworldtheachievem22Chapter3

MacroeconomicpolicyinanopeneconomyChapter3

Macroeconomicpoli233.1TheproblemofinternalandexternalbalanceMuchofthe1950sand1960sliteraturewasconcernedwithhowtheauthoritiesmightsimultaneouslyachievebothinternalandexternalbalance.3.1Theproblemofinternalan24Figure3.1TheSwandiagramFigure3.1TheSwandiagram25TheSwandiagramisdividedintofourzonesdepictingdifferentpossiblestatesforaneconomy:Zone1–adeficitandinflationarypressures.Zone2–adeficitanddeflationarypressures.Zone3–asurplusanddeflationarypressures.Zone4–asurplusandinflationarypressure.TheSwandiagramisdividedin26ThismodelowesitsoriginstopaperspublishedbyJamesFleming(1962)andRobertMundell(1962,1963).TheirmajorcontributionwastoincorporateinternationalcapitalmovementsintoformalmacroeconomicmodelsbasedontheKeynesianIS-LMframework.3.2TheMundell-FlemingmodelThismodelowesitsoriginsto27国际金融(英文版)Chapter-3-Macroeconomic-Policy-in-an-Open-Economy[精]课件28国际金融(英文版)Chapter-3-Macroeconomic-Policy-in-an-Open-Economy[精]课件29InternalandexternalbalanceunderfixedexchangeratesAsituationoffixedexchangeratesandunemploymentisdepictedinfigure3.4.Internalandexternalbalance30Figure3.4

InternalandexternalbalanceunderafixedexchangerateFigure3.4

Internalandexter31InternalandexternalbalanceunderfloatingexchangeratesFigure3.5illustratesthecaseofmonetaryexpansionunderfloatingexchangerates.Internalandexternalbalance32Figure3.5

AmonetaryexpansionunderfloatingexchangeratesFigure3.5

Amonetaryexpansi33FiscalexpansionunderfloatingexchangeratesTheeffectsofafiscalexpansionontheexchangerateunderfloatingratesdependcruciallyupontheslopeoftheBPschedulerelativetotheLMschedule.Fiscalexpansionunderfloatin34Figure3.6

Case1:fiscalexpansionunderfloatingexchangeratesFigure3.6

Case1:fiscalexp35Figure3.7

Case2:fiscalexpansionunderfloatingexchangeratesFigure3.7

Case2:fiscalexp36

AsmallopeneconomywithperfectcapitalmobilityThemodelassumesasmallcountryfacingperfectcapitalmobility.Anyattempttoraisethedomesticinterestrateleadstoamassivecapitalinflowtopurchasedomesticbondspushingupthepriceofbondsuntiltheinterestratereturnstotheworldinterestrate.Asmallopeneconomywithper37Figure3.8

FixedexchangeratesandperfectcapitalmobilityFigure3.8

Fixedexchangerat38Figure3.9

Floatingexchangeratesandperfectcapitalmobility

Figure3.9

Floatingexchange39Theprincipleofeffectivemarketclassification

Mundell(1968)suggestedthatwhathecalledtheprincipleofeffectivemarketclassificationshouldbeusedbyeconomicpolicy-makersinconjunctionwithTinbergen’sinstruments-targetsrule.Mundell’sprinciplestatedthat‘Policiesshouldbepairedwiththeobjectivesonwhichtheyhavethemostinfluence’.Theprincipleofeffectivemar40Figure3.10TheassignmentproblemFigure3.10Theassignmentpro41

LimitationsoftheMundell-Flemingmodel--TheMarshall-Lernercondition--Interactionofstocksandflow--Neglectoflong-runconstraints--Wealtheffects--Neglectofsupply-sidefactors--Treatmentofcapitalflows--Exchange-rateexpectations--Flexibility

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