外文翻译CHINASNEWROLEINAFRICA-课件

CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICAIanTaylorSchoolofInternationalRelations,UniversityofStAndrews

CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICA1FromChina’sNewRoleinAfrica,publishedbyLynneRiennerPublishersthisyear

MaterialandideasbasedonfieldworkandinterviewsIconductedin:

Botswana,CapeVerde,Eritrea,Ethiopia TheGambia,Mauritius,Namibia Nigeria,Senegal,SierraLeone SouthAfrica,Uganda,Zambia,Zimbabwe

China(BeijingandHongKong)

LondonandWashington,DC.

FromChina’sNewRoleinAfric2CONTENTSOFBOOK1. CHINA’SAFRICAPOLICYINCONTEXT2. OILDIPLOMACY3. THEIMPACTOFCHEAPCHINESEGOODS4. THEISSUEOFHUMANRIGHTS5. ARMSSALES6. PEACEKEEPINGINAFRICA7. WHATDOESITALLMEAN?CONTENTSOFBOOK3OILOIL4OildominatestheprofileofAfrica’sexportstoChina(around70%)China’sdependenceonimportedoilroseto47%ofannualdemand,anincreaseof4.1percentsince2019-expectedtorisetoaround60%by2020OildominatestheprofileofA5FIVEKEYWAYSBEIJINGSEEKSTOLESSENPRESSUREIncreasedenergyconservation(thiswillonlymoderategrowthinconsumption)Fuelswitching—reducingthedependenceonimportedfuelsbyswitchingtorenewableenergyandcoal,ofwhichChinahaslargedomesticreserves(buttheenvironment…)Increaseindomesticoilproductionbyseekingoutnewresourcesandexploitingexistingonesmoreefficiently(therehavebeennewdiscoverieswithinChinabutnotenoughtosatisfydemand).FIVEKEYWAYSBEIJINGSEEKSTO6Beijingencouragesnationaloilcompanies(NOCs)toincreasepurchasesininternationaloilmarketsBeijingfacilitatesacquisitionofoilreservesabroadthrough“sweetenerdeals”withforeigngovernmentsHowever,liberalizationhasresultedinashiftofpowerawayfromBeijingtowardNOCsTheabilitybyBeijingtotelltheNOCswhattodoislimitedBeijingencouragesnationaloi7Question:AreparticularventuresaresultofBeijingdirectinganNOCortheNOCseekingdiplomaticassistanceonceithasidentifiedatargetoilfield?ChinalacksacentralministerialagencyoverseeingtheoilindustryQuestion:Areparticularventu8PROBLEM:BeijinghasasyetbeenincapableofenforcingageographicaldivisionoflabouronthemainNOCsResult:competitionandoverlapbetween:ChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation(CNPC)ChinaPetroleum&ChemicalCorporation(Sinopec)ChinaNationalOffshoreOilCompany(CNOOC)PROBLEM:9ExampleCNPCandChinaPetroleumandChemicalCorporation(Sinopec)competedagainsteachotherforapipelineprojectinSudan.ExampleCNPCandChinaPetroleu10TheNOCsinfactviewoneanotherasrivals,competingnotonlyforoilandgasassets,butalsoforpoliticaladvantage.Themorehigh-qualityassetsacompanyacquires,themorelikelyitistoobtaindiplomaticandfinancialsupportfromBeijingforitssubsequentinvestments.especiallytrueforCNOOC,whichdoesnothaveasmuchpoliticalinfluenceasCNPCandSinopecTheNOCsinfactviewoneanot11Thisinter-firmcompetitionisnormalinthecapitalistWest,obviously,butputsadifferenttakeon“ChinaInc.”andits“oilstrategy”inAfrica.Thisinter-firmcompetitionis12Problem:theNOCshavethereputationtolettheChinesegovernmenttakethedangerousconsequencesengenderedbytheirforeign-oilandgasquestThuscommercialinterestsofChineseNOCscanriskdamagingChinesegovernment’sdiplomacyandinternationalreputationoverseasSameassomeWesternoilcompaniesbehaveButgovernmentcontrolovertheactionsofChineseNOCsinAfricanotbeaseasyasmanyseemtothinkintheWestProblem:theNOCshavetherep13IMPACTOFCHINESEIMPORTSIMPACTOFCHINESEIMPORTS14OneofthemorecontentiousissuesinSino-Africanrelations

CheapmanufacturedgoodsblamedfordeclineinAfricanexports—particularlyofclothingandtextiles

AfricanimportsfromChina–712%jumpfrom$895min2019to$7.3bnin2019

ManyAfricanobserversseethisasthecauseofdeclineofAfrica’smanufacturingsector

“AfricaisbecomingadumpinggroundwhileAfricancompaniesaredying”-quotefromanAfricannewspaper外文翻译CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICA-课件15

INTERNATIONALDYNAMICSAfricanGrowthandOpportunityAct(AGOA)(May2000)offeredincentivesforAfricancountriestoopentheireconomiesandbuild“freemarkets”ModificationsmadepermittingleastdevelopedAfricancountriestoemploymaterialsfromthecheapestcontractorsworldwide

EffectwasthatglobalapparelindustrytookadvantageofAfrica’sunexploitedquotaaccesstoEUandUSvia“quotahopping”

INTERNATIONALDYNAMICS16“Quotahopping”variousforeigncompanies,mostlyAsian,setthemselvesupinAfricaasameanstoevadetheobstaclesplacedonthembytheMulti-FibreAgreementTheMFAallocatedexportquotastolow-costdevelopingcountriesandlimitedamountofimportsforstateswhosedomestictextileindustrieswerenegativelyaffectedtargetedatimportsfromAsiaandparticularlyChinaTriangularproductionnetworksthusdevelopedwherebyAsianfirmsmadeproductsinAfricaforexporttoWesternmarkets

“Quotahopping”variousforeign17Result:AfricanexportsoftextilesandclothingtoUSboomedIn2000,apparelexportstoUS=$776m;by2019=$1,782m-increaseof130%

HOWEVER,thiswasartificial-vastmajorityof“African”clothingbeingexportedtoUSwasmadeusingforeignfabrics:

Lesotho=98% Madagascar=92% Kenya=98% Mauritius=64% Swaziland=98% SouthAfrica=68% Namibia=96% Malawi=95% Botswana=99%Result:Africanexportsoftex18SinceChinaisnowbeingheld“responsible”forpost-MFAcollapseofAfrica’sclothingindustry,weshouldnotethatasizeableproportionofthefabricinquestionwasactuallyChineseSinceChinaisnowbeingheld19CLOTHING’S“BIGBANG”MFAexpiredJanuary1,2019,affecting87%ofUSquotasand73%ofEU’sMarketshareenjoyedbyAfricanexportersnowtakenoverbyChinesemanufacturers-also,manyChinesecompaniesthathadrelocatedtoAfricaduringtheMFAmovedbacktoChinaAfricantextileandclothingmanufacturersexportstoUSfellby16%from2019-05USimportsfromChinawentupby44%EUimportsfromChinawentupby78%CLOTHING’S“BIGBANG”MFAexpir20ISAFRICACOMPETITIVE?VerydifficulttoassesswhetherAfricantextilescouldcompetewithChineseimportsbecausetheplayingfieldisnotlevel

Africanmanufacturershavetocontendwithchronicenergyandtransportissues

Example:Nigeriahasworld’s10thlargestreserveofgasbutgeneratesonly3,000mwofelectricity,eventhoughdomesticdemandis6,000mw

Costofdoingbusinesshighandproductsexpensive

ISAFRICACOMPETITIVE?21WorldBank:ifZambianandKenyanpowersystemswereofsamequalityastheChinesethecostsavingsforZambianandKenyanfirmswouldbeequivalenttotheirentirewagebills

SouthAfricahasbeenlosingclothingjobssinceaccedingtotheWTO-theindustrywashighlyprotectedduringapartheidbutisbasicallyuncompetitivetodayWorldBank:ifZambianandKen22ThepopularimageThepopularimage23THEREALITYAfrica’sindustrieshavebeenindeclineforalongtime

Between1975-2000,Ghana’stextileoutputfeelby50%andemploymentinthesectorby80%

InZambia,employmentintheclothingandtextilesectorfellfrom25,000in1980stobelow10,000in2019

InKenya,numberoflarge-scalegarmentmanufacturersdroppedfrom110in1980sto55in2000s

THEREALITY24Africa’stextileexportingsuccessinmid-2000swasanartificialboomforanindustrythatlostitscompetitiveedgelongagoOnlyfactorsupportingthegrowthofmuchofAfrica’sexport-orientedclothingsector=preferentialaccesstooverseasmarketsWhentheseprivilegeswereabolished,Africa’ssuccessintheclothingandtextilesectorsevaporated

Africa’stextileexportingsuc25Poororganizationalprocedures,lowlevelsofskill,andinadequatemanagementGhanaianmanufacturersoftextileshavetofacetheimpositionofanillegal20%dutybyCôted’Ivoire,a“transittax”collectedatBeninandextortionbyNigerianauthoritiesPoorpackaging,poorfinishingofproducts(quality/conformitytostandards),inabilityofsomemanufacturerstomeetexportordersonschedulealsocomeintoplayPoororganizationalprocedures26WorldBankestimatesthatthecostofdoingbusinessinAfricais20–40%abovethatforotherdevelopingregionsdueto:UnpredictablepropertyrightsIneffective/corruptjudiciarysystemspolicyuncertaintyunfaircompetitionfrompoliticallyconnectedcompanies,whichresultsinafewlargefirmsholdingverydominantmarketsharesWorldBankestimatesthatthe27FinishedgoodsfromChinaarearrivingintoAfricanmarketswithfewdomesticcompetitors,wipedoutnotonlybylowpricesofChineseimportsbutbyAfricanconditionsBUT“theChinese”arebeingblamedforAfricangovernments’failings外文翻译CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICA-课件28PolicymakersinBeijingwillhavetoaddressnegativeimpressions

Bigchallenge=increasingSinophobicresentmentvs.ChinesetraderswhoseproductsdominatelocalAfricanmarketsPolicymakersinBeijingwillh29KEYPOINTSTwomainpointsstandout:1.

DegreeofirrationalhostilitytoChinainAfrica.

2.ItisuptoAfricanleaderstomanagetheirrelationswithChinatobenefittheirowneconomiesandcitizensKEYPOINTSTwomainpointsstan30IRRATIONALHOSTILITYChinesetradewithAfricahasbecome,inmanyways,normalized,whichistosaydiverse,andinvolvingmultipleactors,ratherthanstatedirectedandcontrolledYetpeoplestilltalkof“China”inAfrica,asifallactionsbyChineseactorsrepresentsofficialChineseforeignpolicyIRRATIONALHOSTILITY31MuchofAfrica’smanufacturingindustrycollapsedlongago,wellbeforeChineseimportsappearedonthesceneBesides,itisnotonlyAfricanproducerswhohavehadtoadjusttocompetition—between2019and2019,morethan15millionfactoryjobs,representing15%ofthetotalmanufacturingworkforce,werelostinChinaMuchofAfrica’smanufacturing32ItispossiblethatsomeChineseexportsmayblockavenuesforAfrica’sdiversification

awayfromitstraditionalexportsIfAfricaistoescapeitsdependentrelationshipontheglobaleconomyandmoveonfrombeingsimplyanexporterofprimarycommodities,itneedstostartmanufacturingButdomesticproblemsfiguremoresignificantlyinAfricanmanufacturers’plightItispossiblethatsomeChine33Plus,AfricansthemselvesimportahugeamountofChinese-madeproducts-gotoYiwu!ThosethatareshoddyorcounterfeitshouldberegulatedandcontrolledbyAfricangovernmentsButthesecorruptgovernmentsinsteadprefertoblame“China.”Plus,Africansthemselvesimpo34Beijing’sengagementwithAfricaisgroundedinpragmatismàitisuptoeachAfricanstatetodecidehowandwhereittakesshapeChina’sabandonmentofideologyforeconomicgrowthgivesAfricagreaterroomtomanoeuvre—butAfrica’selitesmustdosowisely,withaneyetowardmutualbenefitInsomecountries,theywillInothers,however,predatoryelitesattheapexofneopatrimonialregimes,unconcernedwithpromotingdevelopment,willforfeitthechancetomakethemostofrenewedChineseinterestinAfrica外文翻译CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICA-课件35THEENDTHEEND36

CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICAIanTaylorSchoolofInternationalRelations,UniversityofStAndrews

CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICA37FromChina’sNewRoleinAfrica,publishedbyLynneRiennerPublishersthisyear

MaterialandideasbasedonfieldworkandinterviewsIconductedin:

Botswana,CapeVerde,Eritrea,Ethiopia TheGambia,Mauritius,Namibia Nigeria,Senegal,SierraLeone SouthAfrica,Uganda,Zambia,Zimbabwe

China(BeijingandHongKong)

LondonandWashington,DC.

FromChina’sNewRoleinAfric38CONTENTSOFBOOK1. CHINA’SAFRICAPOLICYINCONTEXT2. OILDIPLOMACY3. THEIMPACTOFCHEAPCHINESEGOODS4. THEISSUEOFHUMANRIGHTS5. ARMSSALES6. PEACEKEEPINGINAFRICA7. WHATDOESITALLMEAN?CONTENTSOFBOOK39OILOIL40OildominatestheprofileofAfrica’sexportstoChina(around70%)China’sdependenceonimportedoilroseto47%ofannualdemand,anincreaseof4.1percentsince2019-expectedtorisetoaround60%by2020OildominatestheprofileofA41FIVEKEYWAYSBEIJINGSEEKSTOLESSENPRESSUREIncreasedenergyconservation(thiswillonlymoderategrowthinconsumption)Fuelswitching—reducingthedependenceonimportedfuelsbyswitchingtorenewableenergyandcoal,ofwhichChinahaslargedomesticreserves(buttheenvironment…)Increaseindomesticoilproductionbyseekingoutnewresourcesandexploitingexistingonesmoreefficiently(therehavebeennewdiscoverieswithinChinabutnotenoughtosatisfydemand).FIVEKEYWAYSBEIJINGSEEKSTO42Beijingencouragesnationaloilcompanies(NOCs)toincreasepurchasesininternationaloilmarketsBeijingfacilitatesacquisitionofoilreservesabroadthrough“sweetenerdeals”withforeigngovernmentsHowever,liberalizationhasresultedinashiftofpowerawayfromBeijingtowardNOCsTheabilitybyBeijingtotelltheNOCswhattodoislimitedBeijingencouragesnationaloi43Question:AreparticularventuresaresultofBeijingdirectinganNOCortheNOCseekingdiplomaticassistanceonceithasidentifiedatargetoilfield?ChinalacksacentralministerialagencyoverseeingtheoilindustryQuestion:Areparticularventu44PROBLEM:BeijinghasasyetbeenincapableofenforcingageographicaldivisionoflabouronthemainNOCsResult:competitionandoverlapbetween:ChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation(CNPC)ChinaPetroleum&ChemicalCorporation(Sinopec)ChinaNationalOffshoreOilCompany(CNOOC)PROBLEM:45ExampleCNPCandChinaPetroleumandChemicalCorporation(Sinopec)competedagainsteachotherforapipelineprojectinSudan.ExampleCNPCandChinaPetroleu46TheNOCsinfactviewoneanotherasrivals,competingnotonlyforoilandgasassets,butalsoforpoliticaladvantage.Themorehigh-qualityassetsacompanyacquires,themorelikelyitistoobtaindiplomaticandfinancialsupportfromBeijingforitssubsequentinvestments.especiallytrueforCNOOC,whichdoesnothaveasmuchpoliticalinfluenceasCNPCandSinopecTheNOCsinfactviewoneanot47Thisinter-firmcompetitionisnormalinthecapitalistWest,obviously,butputsadifferenttakeon“ChinaInc.”andits“oilstrategy”inAfrica.Thisinter-firmcompetitionis48Problem:theNOCshavethereputationtolettheChinesegovernmenttakethedangerousconsequencesengenderedbytheirforeign-oilandgasquestThuscommercialinterestsofChineseNOCscanriskdamagingChinesegovernment’sdiplomacyandinternationalreputationoverseasSameassomeWesternoilcompaniesbehaveButgovernmentcontrolovertheactionsofChineseNOCsinAfricanotbeaseasyasmanyseemtothinkintheWestProblem:theNOCshavetherep49IMPACTOFCHINESEIMPORTSIMPACTOFCHINESEIMPORTS50OneofthemorecontentiousissuesinSino-Africanrelations

CheapmanufacturedgoodsblamedfordeclineinAfricanexports—particularlyofclothingandtextiles

AfricanimportsfromChina–712%jumpfrom$895min2019to$7.3bnin2019

ManyAfricanobserversseethisasthecauseofdeclineofAfrica’smanufacturingsector

“AfricaisbecomingadumpinggroundwhileAfricancompaniesaredying”-quotefromanAfricannewspaper外文翻译CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICA-课件51

INTERNATIONALDYNAMICSAfricanGrowthandOpportunityAct(AGOA)(May2000)offeredincentivesforAfricancountriestoopentheireconomiesandbuild“freemarkets”ModificationsmadepermittingleastdevelopedAfricancountriestoemploymaterialsfromthecheapestcontractorsworldwide

EffectwasthatglobalapparelindustrytookadvantageofAfrica’sunexploitedquotaaccesstoEUandUSvia“quotahopping”

INTERNATIONALDYNAMICS52“Quotahopping”variousforeigncompanies,mostlyAsian,setthemselvesupinAfricaasameanstoevadetheobstaclesplacedonthembytheMulti-FibreAgreementTheMFAallocatedexportquotastolow-costdevelopingcountriesandlimitedamountofimportsforstateswhosedomestictextileindustrieswerenegativelyaffectedtargetedatimportsfromAsiaandparticularlyChinaTriangularproductionnetworksthusdevelopedwherebyAsianfirmsmadeproductsinAfricaforexporttoWesternmarkets

“Quotahopping”variousforeign53Result:AfricanexportsoftextilesandclothingtoUSboomedIn2000,apparelexportstoUS=$776m;by2019=$1,782m-increaseof130%

HOWEVER,thiswasartificial-vastmajorityof“African”clothingbeingexportedtoUSwasmadeusingforeignfabrics:

Lesotho=98% Madagascar=92% Kenya=98% Mauritius=64% Swaziland=98% SouthAfrica=68% Namibia=96% Malawi=95% Botswana=99%Result:Africanexportsoftex54SinceChinaisnowbeingheld“responsible”forpost-MFAcollapseofAfrica’sclothingindustry,weshouldnotethatasizeableproportionofthefabricinquestionwasactuallyChineseSinceChinaisnowbeingheld55CLOTHING’S“BIGBANG”MFAexpiredJanuary1,2019,affecting87%ofUSquotasand73%ofEU’sMarketshareenjoyedbyAfricanexportersnowtakenoverbyChinesemanufacturers-also,manyChinesecompaniesthathadrelocatedtoAfricaduringtheMFAmovedbacktoChinaAfricantextileandclothingmanufacturersexportstoUSfellby16%from2019-05USimportsfromChinawentupby44%EUimportsfromChinawentupby78%CLOTHING’S“BIGBANG”MFAexpir56ISAFRICACOMPETITIVE?VerydifficulttoassesswhetherAfricantextilescouldcompetewithChineseimportsbecausetheplayingfieldisnotlevel

Africanmanufacturershavetocontendwithchronicenergyandtransportissues

Example:Nigeriahasworld’s10thlargestreserveofgasbutgeneratesonly3,000mwofelectricity,eventhoughdomesticdemandis6,000mw

Costofdoingbusinesshighandproductsexpensive

ISAFRICACOMPETITIVE?57WorldBank:ifZambianandKenyanpowersystemswereofsamequalityastheChinesethecostsavingsforZambianandKenyanfirmswouldbeequivalenttotheirentirewagebills

SouthAfricahasbeenlosingclothingjobssinceaccedingtotheWTO-theindustrywashighlyprotectedduringapartheidbutisbasicallyuncompetitivetodayWorldBank:ifZambianandKen58ThepopularimageThepopularimage59THEREALITYAfrica’sindustrieshavebeenindeclineforalongtime

Between1975-2000,Ghana’stextileoutputfeelby50%andemploymentinthesectorby80%

InZambia,employmentintheclothingandtextilesectorfellfrom25,000in1980stobelow10,000in2019

InKenya,numberoflarge-scalegarmentmanufacturersdroppedfrom110in1980sto55in2000s

THEREALITY60Africa’stextileexportingsuccessinmid-2000swasanartificialboomforanindustrythatlostitscompetitiveedgelongagoOnlyfactorsupportingthegrowthofmuchofAfrica’sexport-orientedclothingsector=preferentialaccesstooverseasmarketsWhentheseprivilegeswereabolished,Africa’ssuccessintheclothingandtextilesectorsevaporated

Africa’stextileexportingsuc61Poororganizationalprocedures,lowlevelsofskill,andinadequatemanagementGhanaianmanufacturersoftextileshavetofacetheimpositionofanillegal20%dutybyCôted’Ivoire,a“transittax”collectedatBeninandextortionbyNigerianauthoritiesPoorpackaging,poorfinishingofproducts(quality/conformitytostandards),inabilityofsomemanufacturerstomeetexportordersonschedulealsocomeintoplayPoororganizationalprocedures62WorldBankestimatesthatthecostofdoingbusinessinAfricais20–40%abovethatforotherdevelopingregionsdueto:UnpredictablepropertyrightsIneffective/corruptjudiciarysystemspolicyuncertaintyunfaircompetitionfrompoliticallyconnectedcompanies,whichresultsinafewlargefirmsholdingverydominantmarketsharesWorldBankestimatesthatthe63FinishedgoodsfromChinaarearrivingintoAfricanmarketswithfewdomesticcompetitors,wipedoutnotonlybylowpricesofChineseimportsbutbyAfricanconditionsBUT“theChinese”arebeingblamedforAfricangovernments’failings外文翻译CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICA-课件64PolicymakersinBeijingwillhavetoaddressnegativeimpressions

Bigchallenge=increasingSinophobicresent