房地产评估与房地产经济学

房地产评估与房地产经济学ChengriDingAssociateProfessorNationalCenterforSmartGrowthUniversityofMarylandSpecialAssistantToPresidentofLincolnInstituteofLandPolicy’sChinaProgram丁成日博士马里兰大学城市规划系终身教授马里兰大学城市理性增长国家中心林肯土地政策研究院总裁特别助理兼中国部主任WhatisRealEstateEconomics

什么是房地产经济学Isaboutpeopleandhowtheiractionsaffectrealestatevalues 房地产经济研究人以及人的行为影响房地产价值Realestateeconomicsisastudythatuseseconomicprinciples,bothmacroandmicro,toanalyzetheimpactthatnational,regional,community,andneighborhoodtrendshaveonrealestatevalues. 房地产经济学使用微观和宏观经济学原则分析国家、区域、社区和邻里对房地产价值的影响Ithelpspeopletounderstandwhatcausesfluctuationsinrealestateactivityandhowthesechangescanaffectlocalrealestatemarkets. 房地产经济学帮助人们理解影响房地产市场涨跌以及这些变化又如何影响地方房地产市场WhatareFactorsthatAffecttheValueofaProperty

影响房地产价值的因素Capitalmarkets—supplyside 资本市场——供给方面Labormarkets—demandside 劳动力市场——需求方面Populationgrowth—demandside 人口增长——需求方面Marketsegmentation—localityofsupplyanddemand,typesoruses,characteristicsofpropertyetc. 市场分割——供需的地方性，类型或使用，房地产特性等WhatareFactorsthatAffecttheValueofaProperty

影响房地产价值的因素Interrelationshipbetweensub-marketsofproperties 房地产子市场的相关性Regulationsandlaws(taxation,landuseregulation) 规定与法律（税收、土地利用规定）Urbaninfrastructureandneighborhoodamenity 城市基础设施和社区舒适度Political,social,andeconomicforces 政治、社会和经济力量CapitalMarketandPropertyMarket

资本市场和房地产市场Supplyofstructure 对结构（建筑面积）的需求Marketpricesandnetoperatingincomeofaproperty(rent) 市场价格和房地产净运营收入（租金）Interrelationshipbetweencapitalmarketandrealestatemarket(shortrunandlongrun) 资本市场和房地产市场的相关性（短期和长期）RealEstateMarketandMarketEquilibrium房地产市场和市场平衡Capitalmarketinducedincreasesinsupply,decreaseinrents资本市场导致的供给增加，租金降低TheimpactofdecreaseinthemarketcapitalizationrateonrealestatemarketLocationandValueofaProperty房地产区位和和价值SupplyoflandUrbanlandrentgradientandlandpriceRelationbetweenurbanlandpriceandcapitaldensityLandpriceandurbanlanduse(spatialstructure)土地供给城市土地租金金梯度和土地地价格的关系系城市土地价格格和资本密度度的关系土地价格和城城市土地利用用（空间结构构）UrbanLandMarket城市土地市场场Supplyoflandisinelastic,demandiselastic土地供给是非非弹性的，需需求是弹性的的PQSDTranslatingrentstolandprices将租金转化为为土地价值Rentsareafunctionof:AgriculturallandvalueValueofthestructuresLocationvalueExpectedgrowthinlocationvalue租金是包括如如下因子的函函数：农用土地价格格建筑结构价格格区位价格预计区位价格格的增长Translatingrentstolandprices将租金转化为为土地价值Pricesareafunctionof:InterestratesExpectedrentgrowthRiskofrentalpaymentTaxregime价格是一个如如下因素决定定的函数：利率预计租金增长长租金支付风险险税收体制Landuseefficiencyindicatedbyhigh-degreeofland-capitalinputsubstitution土地和资本投投入的相互互替代程度,关系到城市土土地使用效率率的高低DensityProfilewithLandMarkets土地市场下的的城市密度空空间变化化ParisLandPrice(rentgradient)andSpatialStructure级差地租与空空间结构CommercialIndustrialResidentialAgriculturalLanduseisdeterminedbythehighestbidder.Showseconomicdeterminantsoflandusesegregation.Landvaluesinmulti-nuclearcitiesCitySpatialFormandGrowthCitySpatialFormandGrowthHousingEconomics住房经济学CharacteristicsofhousingcommodityandhousingmarketsHeterogeneity(style,rooms,location,amenity,urbanservicesetc.)ImmobilityAchangeinhousingconsumptionmeansachangeinresidentiallocationHightransactioncostsMarketsegmentations房屋及其房屋屋市场的特性性异质性（风风格，房间间数，位置置，城市服服务等）不可移动性住房消费的变变化意味着驻驻地的变化高的交易成本本分割的市场HousingEconomics住房经济学Whatisconsumed?ItisattributesofhousingthatincludesstructuralfactorsandlocationalamenityWiderangeofvariationinpricechangeacrosscitiesaswellasacrosslocalitywithinacityBuyingahouse=investment?Maybe.住房消费？消消费的是房屋屋的属性（（结构，大小小，区位属性性等)城市间，一一个城市内部部不同地理位位置房屋价格格基期价格的的变化相当不不同买房不等于投投资HousingEconomics住房经济学房屋价格函数数P=Housingprice;房屋价格S=Vectorofstructurevariables;结构矢量L =Vectoroflocational(access)variables区位矢量N=Vectorofneighborhoodvariables;邻里矢量HousingEconomics住房经济学房屋价格函数数Whatisthemeaningofthispartialderivatives?Marginalprices偏导的意义？？边际价格格Spatialdriftofcoefficients(marginalprices),implyingthatthecostofoneadditionalroomvariesacrosslocality.边际价格的空空间“漂移”,如，加一个房房间的价格在在不同地方是是不一样的HousingEconomics住房经济学房屋市场均衡衡(Rosen,1974)决定房屋的价价格影响房地产价价格的外在因因素ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和和经济力量的的影响ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets房地产市场的的外在因素2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域与社区分分析3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元价值值分析4.LandUsePlanning土地利用规划划PoliticalForcesinfluencingValue政治因素影响响价值Propertyrightsandownership财产权和所有有权ThefifthandFourteenthAmendmentsinUS美国第五和第第十四修正案案Federalfinancingaidsandfiscalpolicycontrols联邦财政补助助和财政控制制Rateofinterests利率ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和和经济力量的的影响SocialForcesinfluencingValue社会因素影响响价值Populationgrowthrate(timelyandspatially)人口增长率（（时间与空间间）Demographiccomposition(age,race,gender,income)人口构成（年年龄、种族、、性别和收入入）Housingpreference(Housing/per1000people)住房偏好（住住房/千人）ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和和经济力量的的影响GeneralEconomicforcesInfluencingValue影响价值的经经济因素Grossnationalproduct国民生产总值值Percapitaincomeandrealwagelevels人均收入和实实际收入水平平Unemploymentasameasureoffullemployment.Correlationbetweenunemployment,propertyforeclosures,andpropertytaxdelinquencies失业率衡量就就业水平。失失业率，丧失失赎回权和拖拖欠财产税的的相关性Personalsavingandinvestments个人存款和投投资Generalbusinessandrealestateactivity主要商业和地地产活动StateandRegionalForcesInfluencingValue国家和区域因因素影响价值值Differentialsofpolicyandlaw政策和法律差差异Differentialsofeconomicprospective经济远景差异异etc.等等GovernmentToolsintheRealEstateMarket房地产市场场中的政府府手段Analyzehowgovernmentactionsaffectpropertyvalueandmakeappropriatechanges分析政府行行为如何影影响房地产产价值并促促其变化Monitormarketactivitytoqueueproposals,lesseningtheboom/bustcycle监控市场行行为以排序序发展次序序，减缓涨涨跌循环Useeconomicdevelopmentpoliciestoattractusesthatfitwiththeregion’smasterplan使用经济发发展政策来来引导土地地使用，其其方式与与强度与区区域总体规规划相一至至LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue地方政府和和房地产价价值Abilitytoprovideserviceaffectsvalue服务能力影影响价值Crimerate犯罪率Fireprotection火警预防Easeofdoingbusinessaffectsvalue从事商务活活动的方便便性影响价价值Propertytaxrate房地产税率率Regulatoryenvironment政策规范环环境Liquorlicense酒精饮料销销售许可Zoningrequirements分区要求LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue地方政府和和房地产价价值Externalitiesfromnearbyusesaffectvalue周围环境等等外在因素素影响环境境Noisefromairports机场噪声Pollutionfromfactories工厂污染MonitoringLandMarketActivity监控土地市市场活动Goalistopreventoverbuildingthatleadstovacancies,disinvestment,andblight目标在于防防止建设过过度而导致致空置、蚀蚀本和经济济衰落Stillneedtoencouragecommercialdevelopmenttoincreasepropertytaxbaseandpromoteeconomicdevelopment仍需要鼓励励商业开发发以增加房房地产税基基数和促进进经济发展展MonitoringLandMarketActivity监控土地市市场活动PolicyTool:DevelopmentQueuing政策工具：：开发次序序Plannersacceptproposalsandgrantpermissiontobuildonlyifmarketconditionsindicatethatdemandcanabsorbthenewspace规划师审查查规划方案案，仅审批批那些市场场可以消化化的建设Plannersestimatemarketconditionsthroughtraditionalmeans–gatheringdataaboutrents,vacancyrates,currentconstruction,jobgrowth,andspendingpatterns规划师采用用传统方式式——收集租金数数据，空置置率，建设设现状，就就业率增长长和消费模模式——来估计市场场形势TheRealEstateMarket房地产市场场Immobility固定性Indestructibility不可破坏性性Non-homogeneity异质性Propertydissimilarityimposesspecialmarketconditions房地产的差差异性形成成了特殊的的市场条件件2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社区区分析TheRealEstateMarket房地产市场场Durabilityofrealestatecausesmal-adjustmentsinbothsupplyanddemandonalocalmarketlevel房地产的持持续性导致致对地方市市场供求的的不当调整整Studyingtheunderlyingforcescreatingsupplyanddemandforrealproperty研究形成房房地产供求求的潜在力力量2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社区区分析CauseofUrbanization城市化的结结果CitySpatialFormandGrowth城市空间形形态和增长长RegionalAnalysis区域分析Regionalanalysistechniques:economicbaseanalysis,regionalinput-outputanalysis区域分析方方法：经济济基础分析析，区域投投入产出分分析RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社区区分析PopulationTrendsandCharacteristics人口趋势和和特征EconomicMeasuresofCommunityGrowth社区增长的的经济量化化LandUsePattern土地利用模模式RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社区区分析NeighborhoodDefined邻里的定义义TheNeighborhoodAgeCycle邻里单元的的周期3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元价价值分析临街土地价价值时间成熟期成长期衰退期向次级经济济活动转变变老化期NeighborhoodCharacteristics邻里单元的的特征Physicalfeatures物质特征Demographiccharacteristics人口特征Economicinfluences经济影响3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元价价值分析HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高与最好好使用原则则HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高与最好好使用原则则ConceptsPresentvalueAmortizationValue,capitalrate,andrent(Netoperatingincome—rent)Futurevalue(=0)Highestandbestuseanalysis概念现在价值分期偿还价值，资金金率和租金金（净收益益——租金）未来价值最高与最佳佳使用分析析HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高与最好好分析Thehighestandbestuseofvacantland闲置土地的的最高与最最佳使用Thehighestandbestuseoftheimprovedsite已开发土地地的最高与与最佳原则则HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高与最好好分析Fourcriteria:Physicalpossible:size,shape,terrain,capacity,availabilityofutilitiesetc.Legallypermissible:restriction,zoning,buildingcodes,environmentalregulationsandotherslaws.Financialfeasible:iftheprojectproduceanincomeorreturnequaltoorgreaterthantheamountneededtocovercosts.Maximallyproductive.四项条件：：物质上可行行：尺寸，，形态，地地形，容量量，服务设设施等法律上允许许：限制，，分区，建建筑规范，，环境规则则和其他法法律经济上可行行：如果项项目产出等等于或大于于投入最大生产率率Apartment OfficeRetail公寓办办公零零售Costofconstruction$1,021,600$928,000 $817,300建设投资Effectivegrossincome有效毛收入入$265,000$200,000 $180,000Operatingexpenses-$135,000-$80,000-$69,000运营费用--------------------------------------------$130,000 $120,000$111,000Assuminga20year-yearlifeforthebuilding,thenPV=thecostofconstruction,FV=0,i=1,n=20.HighestandBestUseforaVacantLot闲置土地的的最高与最最佳使用ForApartment:NOItoland=NOIoftotal-buildingamortizationcost$10,000=$130,000 -$120,000SiteValue:V=R/I=10,000/0.10=$100,000Apartment OfficeRetailIncometobuilding@10%$120,000 $109,000 $96,000Incometosite$10,000 $11,000$15,000Indicatedsitevalue@10%$100,000$110,000$150,000SoRetailhasthehighestvalueforthesiteHighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地产产更新新的最最高与与最佳佳原则则Thealternativesare:Renovatetheexistingstores,spending$20,000Converttheexistingspacetooffices,spending$40,000Demolishandconstructanewbuilding不同方方案:更新现现存商商店，，花2万美元元改成办办公，，花4万拆除，，建设设新办办公楼楼HighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地产产更新新的最最高与与最佳佳原则则ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgAcquisitionprice$200,000$200,000$200,000Renovationcost$20,000$40,0000Constructioncost00$700,000Demolishcost00$30,000Totalcosts$220,000$240,000$930,000Theacquisitionpricewillbeallocated80percenttoimprovementand20percenttoland.PV=buildingcosts,FV=0,i=10,n=estimatedeconomiclife.ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgBuildingcost(80%)$160,000$160,000$0Newconstruction20,00040,000700,000TotalAllocatedto$180,000$200,000$700,000BuildingEconomiclife15yr15yr20yrReturntoBuilding$23,665$26,295$77,118@10%HighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地产产更新新的最最高与与最佳佳原则则ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgEffectivegrossincome$41,000$47,000$123,000Operatingexpenses-12,000-16,000-20,000--------------------------------Netoperatingincome$29,000$31,000$103,000Returntobuilding@10%-23,665-26,295-77,118------------------------