凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》

StructuredProblemSolving&HypothesisGeneration凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第1页!GoalsofthismoduleLayoutasystematicapproachtosolvingbusinessproblems–“StructuredProblemSolving”Establishamon“modusoperandus”forConsultingteamsPracticethesuggestedprocessonareal-lifeexample©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第2页!Strategyisaboutthrivinginachangingworld…“Thepicture’sprettybleak,gentlemen...Theworld’sclimatesarechanging,themammalsaretakingover,andweallhaveabrainaboutthesizeofawalnut.”©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第3页!Therearetwobasicapproachestoproblemsolving;butbothcanworkThe“there'saponyinheresomewhere”approachThestructuredanalyticapproachPotentialforrichpowerfulsolutionsScurryaroundanalyzingtonsofdatatoseeifyoucanfindsomethingusefulGetthedataPotentialforgood(andmixed)solutionsDefineproblemandhypotheses©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第4页!Hypothesisformationensuresthatouranalysisisfocusedonourclient’sproblemFormHypothesesDefinetheIssuesGatherDataAnalyseDataFindInsightsDevelopConclusionsandMakeRemendationstoImplementSowhat?—aha,newthoughtWhatyoushoulddo…andhowWhatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight?FactualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypothesesAnalysewhatthedatatellsusStatementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysis©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第5页!AhypothesisshouldidentifynotonlytheissuebutalsothecauseandtheimpactThinkthroughthesethreestagesasyoucreateahypothesistohelpyouplanouthowyouwilltestit:Whatistheissue?Whatistheunderlyingopportunity?Whereistheadvantage?Whatdoyouthinkcausestheissue?Whatarethekeydriversoftheprocess?Whatistheimpactoftheissue?Howcanwetellthereisanopportunity?Whydowecare?“xisanopportunity...”“…dueto...”“…resultingin...”凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第6页!TheBasics-ProblemSolvingApproach©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第7页!Source:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.Alwaysask:“AretheyMutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustive(MECE)?”Logicalpyramidsarebasictoolsforthisapproach,helpingyoutodefine,structureandsolvetheclient’sproblem1. Ideasatanylevelinthepyramidmustalwaysbesummariesoftheideasgroupedbelowthem2. Ideasineachgroupingmustalwaysbethesamekindofidea,andtheymustanswerthesamequestionimpliedbytheirsummary3. Ideasineachgroupingmustalwaysbeinalogicalorder:MainAssertionKeyLineDeductivelyorinductivelyTracecourseortimeorderDivideorstructuralorder(e.g.,Sales,Marketing,Manufacturing,etc.)Classifyordegreeorder(e.g.,mostimportant,2ndmostimportant,etc.)©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第8页!DefineandStructuretheProblem©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第9页!Instructuringaproblem,breakitintosmaller,easier-to-handleponentsANDstartwiththerightdefinitionsUSCarMarketLightTrucksPassengerCarsBig3MiniVansSport

UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerButbecareful—whydoesthisnotwork?©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第10页!DivideClarifyDiagnostic

FrameworkCauseEffect

FrameworkStructural

FrameworkProblemStructureTohelpyousolveaproblem,yourstructuremust:DisaggregatetheproblemintosmallerandeasiertosolveponentsBea“MECE”descriptionoftheproblemanditspossiblesolutionsTraceCauseTherearethreewaystostructureabusinessproblemSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第11页!StoreiswithinshoppingradiusdonotknowaboutthestoreknowaboutthestorenevervisitthestoreenterthestoredonotbuymakeapurchasedonotebackmakerepeatpurchasesLocationAdvertisingSignage,CIConversionCustomerValueRootCauseExample2(tracecause)—disaggregatetheproblemintoacause-effectframeworkHowcanTESCOimproveitssalesproductivity(sales/sq.ft.)?©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第12页!Exercise1—Kmartvs.Wal*Mart:defineandstructureKmart’sbusinessproblemSituationKmartandWal*MartoperatesimilarchainsofFulllineDiscountstoresDifferentpricingstrategies:Kmartfollowsapromotionalpricingstrategyofweeklysales,offeringdiscountsonselecteditems,Wal*MartfollowsanEDLPstrategy(EDLP=EveryDayLowPrices);Kmart'sregularpricesarehigherthanWal*Mart’s,itssalespricesarelowerWal*MarthasabetterpriceperceptionthanKmartKmarthasahigherGMthanWal*Mart(23%vs.21%)KmarthassignificantlyhigherSG&Aaspercentofsales,whicheliminateKmart'sGrossMarginadvantageoverWal*MartWal*Mart’sscaleadvantageisnotdrivenbythenumberofstores,butbyitssalesperstore(bettersalespersquarefoot)KmarthassignificantlylowersalespersquarefootsalesthanWal*Mart($170vs$250).WithWal*Mart’ssalesproductivity,KmartwouldbeaboutasprofitableasWal*MartComplicationKmartisoperatingatbreak-even,andWal*Mart’saggressiveexpansionputsmoreandmoreofKmart'sstoresintodirectpetitionwithWal*Mart,decreasingtheirstorecontributionandKmart'soverallprofitabilityQuestion?????StructureKmart'sproblemtohelpitsmanagementdeviseasolution,includingidentifyingthekeyquestionthatourstudymustanswer©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第13页!Exercise1—

defineandstructureKmart’sproblem:secondstepistoiteratetodriveinsightcreationAlthoughKmart’sHi/LopricingstrategyleadstohighGM,highSG&AhasledtoerodingsalesproductivityHigherGMthanWalMart(+)HigherSG&AexpensesthanWalMart(-)AgingstoresHi/LopricingstrategyLowernetinethanWalMartErodingsame-storesalesvs.WalMartSales/sq.ft.higherthanKmartAggressiveexpansionintoKmartterritoriesEDLPpricingstrategyCustomersperceiveWalMartpricesbetterthanKmartWalMartisaggressivelyexpanding,withhighlyproductivestoresandadifferentpricingstrategythanKMartCustomersperceiveWalMartdelivershighervalueinsomeareasHowcanKmartimproveitssalesproductivity(sales/sq.ft.)?©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第14页!Exercise5—

usinga“quickanddirty”approachcanproducesurprisinglyaccurateresults30million?300million?3billion?30billion?300billion?HowMany(Retail)LitresofPetrolAreSoldinFrancePerYear?Data:FrenchPopulation~60million.1Gallon=3.8Litres©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第15页!ExplicitlytiesyouranalysistoyourproblemdefinitionWhyhypothesesmatterTheykeepyoureffortHelpsdefinethelevelofaccuracythatmattersEnsuresyouanalyzenomorethanisneededtodisprovehypotheseswithinareasonabledoubtAllowsquickcheckbeforemassivedatacollectionandcrunching:“Ifweconfirmourbeliefinthehypothesis,willwebeabletoactonit?”KeepsyouefficientOntargetAccurateMinimalActionableOnTime©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第16页!DEVELOPAHYPOTHESIS

Whatdifferentiatesagoodhypothesisfromabadone?Ontarget:Answersthecorequestionontheclients’mindAccurate:EmbracestheentirerangeofpetitiveorprofitdriversMinimal:

“Occam’srazor”Actionable:CanbequantifiedandtestedOntimeGoodHypothesesAreCannotberefutedCannotpossiblybequantifiedRequireyouto“BoiltheOcean”AresoobviousthatnobodycanintelligentlydisagreewithitOrlooklikeanabstractmodelofaprocessconsistingofboxes,arrowsandcloudsBadHypotheses©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第17页!DEVELOPAHYPOTHESIS

Whatifyourhypothesisisprovenwrong?YouWin!Hypothesis-driventhinkingrequiresfrequentreviewsoftheprevailingandcurrenthypotheses:Dowestillthinktheyareright?Arewemakingprogresstowardsdisprovingthem?Aretheyattherightlevelofgenerality/predictiveness?Havingprovenahypothesiswrongmeansyouhavemadeabigsteptowardsansweringyourquestion!“Awisemansometimeschangeshismind,butafoolnever.”-ArabicProverb©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第18页!…whichisallabout“decisionmaking”“Strategyisaboutmakingdecisions”Thebeststrategy“makers”areabletoblendanalytictechniqueswithanunderstandingofthefutureuncertaintiesandsimplegoodluckBasedonoftenimperfectinformationtheymakedecisionsandthendriveimplementation©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第19页!DefiningtheissueisthefirststepinthejourneytofinalremendationsDevelopConclusionsandMakeRemendationstoImplementFindInsightsAnalyseDataGatherDataFormHypothesesSowhat?—aha,newthoughtWhatyoushoulddo…andhowDefinetheIssuesWhatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight?FactualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypothesesAnalysewhatthedatatellsusStatementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysis©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第20页!HypothesesaredevelopedinthreestepsWhataretherealstrategicissues?Whatistheimpactontheorganisation?Whatarethepriorities?Wethink...Itlookslike...Therightanswermaybe...Theoptionscouldbe...Webelievethistobetrue...Aseriesofstatements,notyetbackedbydataBasedoninitialdatasearchorexpertopinionsAnumberofassertionsneedtobetrueforahypothesistobevalid.Isthereamarketforwhitelabelinsuranceproducts?DirectchannelsaregrowingRetailershaveastrongchannelandbrandThereareexistingproductsChubbInsurancecanaccessnewbusinessbyusingthebrandstrengthofTescoresultingIslowcostofacquisitionandprofitablebusinessDefinethequestionReviewandDescribeMultipleAssertionsFormthehypothesis123凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第21页!TheStructuredProblemSolvingProcesscoversthelifecycleofaconsultingengagementDefinetheProblemStructuretheProblemDevelopaHypothesisExecutetheAnalysisDevelopaRemendationCreatetheCommunicationDeliverCommunicationFollowUpwithClientCoveredincurrentmoduleCoveredlaterintheweek©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第22页!DEFINETHEPROBLEMSTRUCTURETHEANALYSISFINDTHESOLUTIONOurproblemsolvingapproachproducesresultsthroughansweringasimpleseriesofquestionsIsthereaproblemoropportunity?Ifsowheredoesitlie?Whydoesitexist?Whatcouldwedoaboutit?Whatshouldwedoaboutit?Fine,butIWIKH2dothis...©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第23页!Logicalpyramidsincreasetheeffectivenessofproblemsolving,resultsdeliveryandmunication…VerticalstructureHorizontalstructureKeyline/narrative…buthelpensurethoroughanalysis……whiledecreasingplexity……andincreasingthepowerofpresentationsLogicalpyramidshavesimplerules…TheeffectivenessofourworkdependsheavilyonhowpellinglywecanarguethatthesolutionweputforwardservestheclientbestThereasoningwehavetoapplytoetooursolutionisplexanddifficulttosummarizeforbriefclientinteractionsTobuildsuccinctandpellingpresentationsofourwork,weuselogicalpyramidsasthepreferredmunicationstyle:PyramidsmakeinformationmorememorableandmeaningfulTheyleadtoaclearerdefinitionoftheproblemswesolveTheystructureoursolutionstotheseproblemsandmakethemmorepellingSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.…whichwillmakeyourwork/lifemucheasiertohandle©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第24页!“Ifyoudon’tknowwhereyouaregoing,anyroadwilltakeyouthere.”

-AnonymousWhyproblemdefinitionmatters©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第25页!"MutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustive"Themostimportantruleforanystructureyouimpose©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第26页!HeadHurtsPhysicalMentalExternalInternalStress,TensionHypochondriaBumped,BruisedHeadAllergiesBadWeather,SinusHeadache,

Flu,ColdBrainTumorWaterontheBrainExample1—disaggregatetheproblemintoadiagnosticsolutiontreeSCooPSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第27页!AccounttypePacksizeREPURCHASETargetmarketpersuadedtorepurchase?DISTRIBUTIONBrandmadeavailable?TRIALTargetmarket

inducedtotry?AWARENESSTargetmarketaware?ProductrejectionPrice/valuerejectionFrequencyofuseOccasionofuseConsumerprofilePackDisplayPromotiontypePromotiontuningSell-ineffectivenessFeedbackIfalllinesofinquiryfailtorevealaproblemsource,gobacktoconsiderwhethertargetmarketandconsumerbenefithavebeenaccuratelydefined.AttributeawarenessAdvertisingrecallAdvertisingspendingrateMediamixRegionalweightAdvertisingmunicationTargetmarketConsumerbenefitRegionSalesforcecoverageSalesforcedirectionTradetermsExample3—disaggregatetheproblemintoanintrinsicstructureWhydoesWimpy’snotshowtheanticipatedfinancialperformance?ChannelSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.Productspec.SellingpriceBrandnamePackagingPOSITIONINGBrandproperly

positionedforthe

market?©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第28页!Exercise1—

defineandstructureKmart’sproblem:firststepistologicallyorganizethefactsCompanyCompetitorCustomerHigherGMthanWalMart(+)HigherSG&AexpensesthanWalMart(-)AgingstoresHi/LopricingstrategyLowernetinethanWalMartErodingsame-storesalesvs.WalMartSales/sq.ft.higherthanKmartAggressiveexpansionintoKmartterritoriesEDLPpricingstrategyCustomersperceiveWalMartpricesbetterthanKmart©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》共34页，您现在浏览的是第29页!Exercise4—summaryperformancedataforacreditcardissuer…what’stheproblem?Note:Allfiguresin1000s.AssumenopriceinflationandthatinterestrateshaveremainedconstantThe80/20Rule…80%oftheanswerisin20%ofthedataOftenwemissthegoldminebecausewearebusytryingtovaluetheshackbuiltontopofitThisdata,takenfromarealclient(butrebased,)tell