亚洲服务业发展

PARKJAE-SANGhasshownthewayforward.TheSouthKoreanrapper,knownasPSY,thisweektoppedthepopchartsinBritainandlaysecondinAmerica.Hisgloriouslyinanevideo,“GangnamStyle”(withsome350monlineviewingssofar),hasprovedthatAsia’seconomicpowerhousescanleadtheworldinexportingintangiblegoodiesaswellasthingsyoucandroponyourfoot.Facinganalarmingeconomicslowdown,muchofAsianeedstolearnthelesson:serviceindustriesarethefuture.朴载相向我们展示了发展的道路。韩国说唱歌手PSY，在本周登上英国流行音乐榜首，美国音乐榜第二。他华丽得无厘头的MV江南style(目前大约3.5亿观看量)，证明了亚洲经济马力能够引领世界无形商品和有形商品的出口。面对着令人担忧的经济下滑，许多亚洲国家必须学习一个门课程：服务业才是未来。Thatisacrudesummaryofthelatest“Outlook”fortheregionpublishedthisweekbytheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB).Foralmosttheentireregion,itisfargloomierthantheADB’spreviousforecastinApril—ifstillstartlinglyperkybyWesternbenchmarks.InAsiaasawhole,excludingJapan,economicgrowththisyearisexpectedtoslowto6.1%,from7.2%in2011.这是本周亚洲发展银行出版的关于该区域的最新“展望”的简略总结。比起亚洲发展银行之前在四月的预测，该区域的大多国家都表现出更加暗淡的前景----如果比起西方国家衡量基准或许有活力得多。从全亚洲看，除去日本，本年度的经济增长预测会从2011年的7.2%下降到今年的6.1%。Muchofthiscanbeblamedonthefeeblestateoftherich-worldeconomy.SinceApril,fearsthattheeurozoneisonthebrinkofacataclysmicmeltdownhaveeasedsomewhat.Yettheyarenotabouttogoawayaltogether,andoptimismovertheprospectsforthebiggestmarketformuchofAsia’sexportsisstillremote.Addinananaemicrecovery,atbest,inAmerica,andtheworrythatitseconomymighttumbleoffafiscalcliffinDecember,andtheoutlookforexternaldemandisbleak.InChinaexportstoEuropefellbyabout5%inthefirsteightmonthsofthisyear,comparedwithayearearlier.着大多要归咎于富裕经济体虚弱的现状。从四月起，欧元区在灾难性崩溃边缘的担忧已经有所缓和。但是这些担忧并没有完全消散，大多数亚洲出口国的最大市场的乐观前景仍然渺茫。加上美国无力的经济复苏还有其经济可能在12月坠入财政悬崖的担忧，外部需求的前景显得暗淡无光。今年前八个月中国对欧洲出口同比下降了大约5%。Indeed,itisChinathataccountsformuchoftheregionalslowdown,withtheADB’sforecastforGDPgrowthin2012cutto7.7%,from8.5%justinApril.Year-on-yeargrowthinthethirdquarterisexpectedtohavebeennotmuchmorethan7%,theseventhsuccessivequarterlyslowdown.InvestmentinbothChineseinfrastructureandmanufacturinghasgrownlessfrenetically.Economicuncertaintyhasactedasadragonconsumption.Yet,bytheADB’sreckoning,“externalfactors”accountforabouttwo-thirdsofChina’sslowdown.事实上，中国的经济下滑占据了该区域经济减速的大部分数值，亚洲发展银行在4月对中国GDP增长预测为8.5%，而现在削减为7.7%。第三季度同比增长预计将不高于7%，这已是连续第七个季度的下滑。中国基础设施和制造业的投资增长已不再疯狂。经济不确定性成了消费的羁绊。然而，亚洲发展银行估计外部因素占到了中国经济下滑的三分之二。“Internalfactorsaredominant”，however,inIndia,whichhasnotfollowedtheEastAsianpatternoflabour-intensivemanufacturingandexport-ledgrowth.TheretheADBhasmadeanevensharpercutinitsforecastfor2012growth,from7%to5.6%,Alatemonsoon,continuedinflationarypressuresandagovernmentthathasonlyjuststartedtryingtoescapefrompolicyparalysishavealldentedinvestorandconsumerconfidence.而在印度“内部因素是主导”，印度没有遵循劳动力密集型制造业和出口导向型的东亚模式。亚洲发展银行对印度2012年经济增长预期做了更大的削减，由7%到5.6%。在这个迟来的雨季里通胀压力仍在继续，同时一个正在开始尝试脱离政治瘫痪的政府也削弱了投资者和消费者的信心。SlowergrowthinChinaandIndiahasaknock-oneffectintherestofAsia,forwhichChinainparticularisanevermoreimportantmarket.YetSouth-EastAsiaisprovingratherresilient,evenifthenewkidontheregionalblock,reformingMyanmar,hastoosmallaneconomyyettohavemuchofanimpact.InIndonesiagrowthisdrivenlargelybydomesticdemandandisstilloncoursetoreacharound6%thisyear.ThePhilippines,anewfavouriteamongsomeforeigninvestors,mayfallnotfarshortofthat.Thailand,meanwhile,hasrecoveredrapidlyfromcalamitousfloodingin2011.中国和印度的缓慢增长在亚洲产生了冲击效应，尤其是中国，在亚洲已它已是个日趋重要的市场。但南亚更为具恢复力，即使是该区域集团的新势力，正在改革的缅甸经济实力还太小不能有太大影响。印尼的增长大部分由国内需求驱动并且在今年会达到大约6%的增长。菲律宾作为一些外国投资者的新宠，可能同时泰国已经从2011年的洪灾中迅速地恢复。However,developingAsiafacesachallengemorefundamentalthanridingoutanothercyclicaldownturnintheWest.TheADBhaswarnedbeforeofthedangersofgrowthfuelledbynaturalbountyandcheaplabour.Aswagesrise,manufacturersfindthemselvesunabletocompeteeitherwithlower-costproducerselsewhereor,inhigher-value-addedproducts,withmoreadvancedeconomies.Theygetstuckina“middle-incometrap”.但是，发展中的亚洲比起经受着有一个周期性低迷的西方国家来说面临着的是更为根本性的挑战。亚洲增长主要由自然资源和廉价劳动了刺激，亚洲发展银行已经在此前对这种增长发出警告。随着工资上涨，制造商发觉无论是与其他地方的低成本的制造商还是与发达经济体的高附加值产品，他们都已没有能力与之竞争。他们可能陷入“中等收入陷阱”。NowtheADBisarguingthat,withdemandfromtheadvancedeconomiesforitsmanufacturesunlikelytopickupstronglysoon,Asianeedstoshifttoamodelbasedmoreonrisingdomesticdemandandrelyingmoreonitsserviceindustries.Asfarmers’childrenacrossAsiahaveleftthelandtoworkinfactories,farming’sshareofoutputhasdropped,soindustry’sshareisnowfarhigherthanintheOECDcountries.ButbeforedevelopingAsia’sindustrialisationhasrunitscourse,theregionneedstoreplicatethesuccessinservices,whichnowaccountforjust48.5%ofitsGDP,comparedwith75%inadvancedeconomies.亚洲发展银行称，现在发达经济体对亚洲制造商需求不太可能快速强劲恢复，所以亚洲需要转变成更加依赖国内需求和服务业的模式。随着亚洲农民子女离开土地到工厂工作，农业比重开始下降，所以工业比重比起世界经合组织国家来说要高得多。但是在亚洲工业化按部就班地发展之前，该区域必须复制在服务业方面的成功，服务业目前仅占GDP的48.5%，不及发达国家的75%。Asiahassomeextraordinarysuccessstoriesinhigh-endservices:notjustthe“Koreanwave”washingthroughtheworld’spopcultures,ortheBollywoodmovieswatchedfromKandahartoKansas,butsomeoftheworld’sbestairports,airlinesandhotels.ThenthereisIndia’sworld-beatinginformation-technologyservicesandoutsourcingindustry.Lastyearthisproduced$76.4billioninrevenuesandemployed2.5mpeople.亚洲在高端服务业也有一些非凡的成绩，不只是席卷全球的顶级流行文化“韩流”，或从坎大哈到堪萨斯都被观看过的宝莱坞电影，其实还有世界上最好的机场，航空公司和酒店。其次是印度一流的信息技术服务还有外包产业。去年在这些方面产生的收入达到764亿美元，为250万人提供就业岗位。Thatisadropintheocean,however,inIndia’shalf-a-billion-stronglabourforce,evencountingthefouradditionaljobselsewherethateachITjobisclaimedtocreate.MostofthoseworkinginwhatcountasservicejobsacrossAsialeadlessmodernandproductivelives:shopkeepers,rickshaw-pullers,foot-masseuses,securityguards,barbers,road-sweepers,dhobi-wallahsliftattendants,rubbish-pickersandsoon.Whatisneeded,theADBargues,isaboostfor“high-valuemodernservices”,suchasITandfinance.Thiswouldcreatejobs(especiallyforwomen),meetthegrowingneedofanurbanisingpopulationformoresophisticatedservices,andopenupnewexportmarkets.这只是沧海一粟，对亚洲大多数工作于称得上是服务业人的来说，他们的工作并没那么现代化和高效：诸如店主，车夫，足底按摩师，保安，理发师，清洁工人，电梯乘务员，拾荒者等等。亚洲发展银行表示，高价值现代服务业需要推进，比如IT和金融业。这将会增加工作岗位(尤其对女性)，满足城市人口不断增长的对于高端服务的需求，而且也将开启新的出口市场。BlockedserviceroadsTheobstaclestothisarehuge,includingtheshortcomingsofeducationsystems,telecommunicationsandotherinfrastructureand,intheADB’swords,“aboveall,burdensomeregulationswhichprotectincu