4方案优选分析

4城西干道改造方案优选分析在城西十道改造方案的决策中，南京市政府最终选择了“桥改隧”方案，即拆除现有高架桥、新建双向六车道隧道。这一决策遭到部分南京市民的质疑。政府“桥改隧”的“毁桥”方案与市民的利用现有高架桥的“留桥”建议产生了鲜明对立。本文采用专家打分法模拟政府决策过程，试图对政府选择“桥改隧”方案进行探讨和分析；同时进行网络调查，分发调研卷，对持反对意见市民的观点进行归纳总结，从而探求该部分市民对城西十道改造方案的视角。以下详细计算过程以模拟政府决策为例，市民观点的影响因素权重计算与之类似，在此不再赘述。4.1构造层次结构模型所建城西十道改造工程方案优选的层次结构模型如图1。4.2构造并计算各判断矩阵计算各判断矩阵，结果见表2-表15。表2判断矩阵A-B及单排序权值ABlB2B3Wi一致性检验Bl132.250.5609Amax=3.0015B20.333310.66670.1798CI=0.0008B30.44441.510.2593RI=0.58CR=0.0015表3判断矩阵B1-C及单排序权值BlClC2Wi一致性检验Cl11.28570.5625、ax=2.0000C20.777810.4375CI=0.0000RI=0CR=0.0000表4判断矩阵B2-C及单排序权值B2C3C4C5C6Wi一致性检验C3134.590.6046Amax=4.0163C40.333311.82.250.1963CI=0.0054C50.22220.555611.80.125RI=0.90C60.11110.44440.555610.0741CR=0.0061表5判断矩阵B3-C及单排序权值B3C7C8C9ClOWi一致性检验C712.25990.5927Amax=4.0035C80.444414.54.50.2794CI=0.0012C90.11110.222211.1250.0659RI=0.90CIO0.11110.22220.888910.0621CR=0.0013表6判断矩阵C1-S及单排序权值

ClSlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验SI1310.777834.530.2178、ax=7.0372S20.333310.33330.222211.285710.0695CI=0.0062S31310.777834.530.2178RI=1.32S41.28574.51.28571394.50.3007CR=0.0046S50.333310.33330.333311.810.0772S60.22220.77780.22220.11110.555610.55560.0441S70.333310.33330.222211.810.0729表7判断矩阵C2-S及单排序权值C2SlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验Sl194.54.532.251.28570.3247、ax=7.0693S20.111110.44440.55560.33330.33330.22220.04CI=0.0116S30.22222.2510.88890.66670.44440.33330.0725RI=1.32S40.22221.81.12510.55560.66670.22220.0708CR=0.0085S50.333331.51.810.77780.33330.1077S60.444432.251.51.285710.55560.134S70.77784.534.531.810.2502表8判断矩阵C3-S及单排序权值C3SlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验Sl10.44440.44440.222211.1251.28570.3247、ax=7.0851S22.2511.1250.66672.252.251.80.04CI=0.0142S32.250.888910.55562.251.84.50.0725RI=1.32S44.51.51.814.54.54.50.0708CR=0.0104S510.44440.44440.222211.1251.28570.1077S60.88890.44440.55560.22220.888911.1250.134S70.77780.55560.22220.22220.77780.888910.2502表9判断矩阵C4-S及单排序权值C4SlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验Sl10.66670.77780.55560.44440.33330.88890.0833、ax=7.0235S21.511.1250.66670.55560.44441.50.1173CI=0.0039S31.28570.888910.77780.77780.55561.50.1229RI=1.32S41.81.51.285710.88890.55561.80.1562CR=0.0029S52.251.81.28571.12510.77782.250.1854S632.251.81.81.2857130.2506S71.1250.66670.66670.55560.44440.333310.0843表10判断矩阵C5-S及单排序权值C5SlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验Sl10.22220.88890.88890.66671.28571.1250.0889、ax=7.0672S24.514.54.534.590.4335CI=0.0112S31.1250.222211.1250.66671.12510.0918RI=1.32S41.1250.22220.888910.66671.12510.0887CR=0.0082S51.50.33331.51.512.252.250.147

S6S70.77780.88890.22220.11110.888910.888910.44440.444411.1250.888910.07550.0746表11判断矩阵C6-S及单排序权值C6SIS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验SI10.55560.777810.66670.777810.1141、ax=7.〔828S21.810.66670.44440.77780.77780.55560.1106CI=0.0305S31.28571.510.77781.1251.1250.88890.1523RI=1.32S412.251.285710.66670.777810.1498CR=0.0224S51.51.28570.88891.510.88891.28570.1649S61.28571.28570.88891.28571.12511.1250.1601S711.81.12510.77780.888910.1483表12判断矩阵C7-S及单排序权值C7S1S2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验SI10.66670.77780.88890.777811.1250.1237、ax=7.0267S21.511.1251.28571.1251.81.28570.1804CI=0.0045S31.28570.888911.1250.88891.51.28570.1577RI=1.32S41.1250.77780.888910.88891.1251.50.144CR=0.0033S51.28570.88891.1251.12511.28571.50.1631S610.55560.66670.88890.777811.28570.1202S70.88890.77780.77780.66670.66670.777810.1108表13判断矩阵C8-S及单排序权值C8S1S2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验SI11.511.12531.52.250.2012、ax=7.0287S20.666710.77780.66672.251.1251.80.1431CI=0.0048S311.285711.1252.251.51.80.183RI=1.32S40.88891.50.888912.251.52.250.1836CR=0.0035S50.33330.44440.44440.444410.44440.88890.0709S60.66670.88890.66670.66672.2511.50.1319S70.44440.55560.55560.44441.1250.666710.0863表14判断矩阵C9-S及单排序权值C9S1S2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验SI11.51.81.80.77781.12510.1667、ax=7.0206S20.666711.285710.55560.77780.66670.111CI=0.0034S30.55560.7778110.33330.66670.55560.0892RI=1.32S40.55561110.33330.66670.55560.0924CR=0.0025S51.28571.83311.51.28570.2297S60.88891.28571.51.50.666710.77780.1412S711.51.81.80.77781.285710.1699表15判断矩阵C10-S及单排序权值C10S1S2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性检验SI10.77780.55560.66671.1250.88891.28570.1193、ax=7.0682S21.285710.66670.88891.51.1252.250.16CI=0.0113S31.81.510.77782.252.251.80.2096RI=1.32S41.51.1251.285711.51.28571.80.1835CR=0.0084S50.88890.66670.44440.666710.77781.1250.1052S61.1250.88890.44440.77781.285711.50.1297S70.77780.44440.55560.55560.88890.666710.09274.3计算计算各影响因素及各方案相对于城西十道改造工程方案优选目标的综合权重，并按第2部分（层次分析法基本原理）中提及的层次总排序一致性检验公式进行检验，见表16和表17。表16准则层综合排序权值B1(0.5609)B2(0.1798)B3(0.2593)Wi一致性检验C10.5625000.3155C20.4375000.2454C300.604600.1087C400.196300.0353C500.12500.0225CR=0.0015C600.074100.0133C7000.59270.1537C8000.27940.0724C9000.06590.0171C10000.06210.0161表17方案层综合排序权值C1(0.3155)C2(0.2454)C3(0.1087)C4(0.0353)C5(0.0225)C6(0.0133)C7(0.1537)C8(0.0724)C9(0.0171)C10(0.0161)WiS10.21780.32470.08140.08330.08890.11410.12370.20120.16670.11930.2021S20.06950.04000.17840.11730.43350.11060.18040.14310.11100.16000.1090S30.21780.07250.18560.12290.09180.15230.15770.18300.08920.20960.1575S40.30070.07080.32860.15620.08870.14980.14400.18360.09240.18350.1974S50.07720.10770.08140.18540.14700.16490.16310.07090.22970.10520.1075S60.04410.13400.07840.25060.07550.16010.12020.13190.14120.12970.1005S70.07290.25020.06610.08430.07460.14830.11080.08630.16990.09270.1259一致性检验CR=0.0064表18持反对意见市民的准则层综合排序权值B1(0.3043)B2(0.3043)B3(0.3913)WiC10.6923000.2107C20.3077000.0936C300.277500.0844C400.582600.1773C500.071400.0217C600.068500.0208C7000.49500.1937C8000.22660.0887C9000.05190.0203C10000.22660.08874.4结果分析通过以上计算，得到了政府决策中各影响因素（见表16）、各方案的综合权重（见表17）以及市民视角下的各影响因素权重（见表18）。根据各影响因素的权重值大小，可看出在政府方面，交通功能、城市景观和工程投资三项为首要关注因素，其在很大程度上决定了最后的“桥改隧”方案；持反对意见的市民则更关注交通功能、施工期间交通组织以及工程投资这几个因素，经过分析，该部分市民更加支持“在贯通原有四车道高架桥的同时新建四车道隧道”和“保留现有四车道高架不变，新建四车道隧道”这两个方案。从这一结果不难看出，政府决策与市民观点的出发点相去甚远，政府站在城市规划发展的宏观高度，综合考虑了提高快速路服务水平和美化城市景形