资源评价方法33 证据权法应用实例课件

ApplicationofWOEinNevadaandtheGreatBasinSedimentaryRock-HostedGoldDeposits

ApplicationofWOEinNevadaa1Basin-RangeTopographyViewedFromSpaceNevadaandtheGreatBasinBasin-RangeTopographyNevadaa2SpecificationofModelTrainingThemesEvidenceThemesEstimationor“Fitting”ofModelOptimizeEvidenceThemesResponseThemeValidationofModelEstimationofUncertaintyPredictabilityofTrainingSitesComparisontoExpert-DefinedFavorableAreasBlindTestMineralExplorationTargetsMineralAssessmentModelSpecification,Estimation,ValidationSpecificationofModelSpecificationofModelMineral3MineralTrends

BattleMountain-EurekaCarlinGetchellIndependenceSedimentaryRock-HostedGoldTrainingTheme(98sites)MineralTrendsBattleCarlinGet4TrainingTheme

DepositModel Number(Bliss,1992;CoxandSinger,1986)Sediment-hosted(26a) 89Distaldisseminated(19c) 9Total:98USGSMineralResourceDataSystem,1993&1995SedimentaryRock-HostedGoldOccurrences&DepositsTrainingThemeDepositModel 5TrainingThemeSub-microscopicparticlesofgoldon(orin)disseminatedsulfideminerals(typicallypyrite)instratiform/strataboundorebodiesHostrocksrangefromsilty-carbonatetolimey-clastics~42-30MainageFormedatmediumdepths(3-5km)fromlowtemperature,evolvedmeteoricwaters,withelevatedCO2andlowsalinityTypicallylow-grade,high-tonnage,open-pitoperationsCarlin-TypeSedimentaryRock-HostedGoldTrainingThemeSub-microscopic6EvidenceThemesLithologicLithologicunitsDiversityoflithologicunitsCenozoicigneousrockunitdistancebuffersCenozoicigneousrocktime-slicesCenozoicigneousrockcomposition-slicesMesozoicplutondistancebuffersMesozoicplutondensityClasticandcarbonaterockunitsClasticandcarbonaterockunitdistancebuffersGeochemical(andrelated)K/Na,Ba/Na,U/Th,Fe/Al,La/K,Sc/Fe,Sc/V,K,Al,As(NUREdata)Igneousrockmajorelementanalyses(PETROS)Igneousrockradiometricagedates(RADBdata)Mineralization(metallicdeposits)radiometricagedatesGeographicTopographicelevationShadedreliefoftopographyDegreeoftopographicslopeStructural/tectonicCenozoicfaultdistancebuffersCenozoicfaultdensityThrust-frontdistancebuffersStrike-slipfaultdistancebuffersLANDSATlinear-featuresdistancebuffersLANDSATlinear-featuresdensityHighlyextendeduppercrustalterrainDeep-seatedbasementfracturesystembuffersLithotectonicterraneCrustalthicknessTertiaryrockdipangleanddirectionLate-Paleozoic–earlyMesozoicpaleothermalanomalyGeophysicalBouguergravityanomalyIsostaticresidualgravityanomalyTotalresidualfieldgeomagneticanomalyGeothermalconductivity(gradient)CrustalheatflowGeothermalwellsandspringstemperatureExaminedforModelingEvidenceThemesLithologicStruc7

Estimationor“Fitting”oftheModel…EvidenceThemesSelectedforModelingBa/NaGeochemicalAnomaly地化异常比值Lithology岩性DiversityofLithology岩性多样度LithotectonicTerrane构造岩MesozoicPlutonDistanceBuffers中生代深成岩体BUFFERCenozoicFaultDistanceBuffers新生代断层BUFFERIsostaticResidualGravityAnomaly均衡重力异常TotalResidualFieldGeomagneticAnomaly磁力异常K/NaGeochemicalAnomaly地化异常比值Estimationor“Fitting”ofth8EvidenceTheme-LithologyStewart&Carlson(1978)-101LithologicUnits1:500,000scaleEvidenceTheme-LithologyStew9EvidenceTheme-LithologyAllUnitsHavingaPositiveContrast-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0PzspStOsCtJgbChMDsOsvPMhTgrPMcDcCcJTrsOcTrcCZqTa1PscC(W+-W-)W+W-WeightsofSpatialAssociationEvidenceTheme-LithologyAll10EvidenceTheme-LithologyPredictorThemeUnitsHavingaHighSpatialAssociationwiththeTrainingSitesW+PredictivePatternW

-EvidenceTheme-LithologyPre11OptimizedEvidenceThemesNinePredictorThemesLithologyPlutonBuffersLithotectonicTerraneFaultBuffersLithologicDiversityAeromagnetismIsostaticGravityBa/NaK/NaMissingDataOptimizedEvidenceThemesNine12PredictorThemesRelativeInfluenceinModel-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0-7.5-5.0-2.50.02.55.07.510.012.515.017.520.0(C/Std(C))C(W+-W-)W+W-C/Stdev(C)K/NaLithologyBa/NaLitho-tectonicTerraneIsostaticGravityLithologicDiversityAero-magnetismFaultBuffersPlutonBuffersWeightsofSpatialAssociationPredictorThemesRelativeInflu13SedimentaryRock-HostedPosteriorProbabilityResponseThemeMineralTrends

BattleMountain-EurekaCarlinGetchellIndependence“FavorabilityRanks”(ConditionallyDependentModel)favorablenon-favorableSedimentaryRock-HostedPoster14SpecificationofModelTrainingThemeEvidenceThemesEstimationor“Fitting”ofModelOptimizeEvidenceThemesResponseThemeValidationofModelEstimationofUncertaintyPredictabilityofTrainingSitesComparisontoExpert-DefinedFavorableAreasBlindTestMineralExplorationTargetsMineralAssessmentModelSpecification,Estimation,ValidationSpecificationofModelMineral15RelativeCertaintyofPosteriorProbabilityEstimates~70%~90%~99.5%RelativeConfidenceLevel“RuleofThumb”Pposterior/s(Pposterior)RelativeCertaintyofPosterio16SpatialCoincidence-FavorabilityPattern&RelativeCertaintyPosteriorProbabilityResponsePatternRelativeCertaintyofPosteriorProbabilitiesSpatialCoincidence-Favorabi17~83%ofthetrainingsiteshaveposteriorprobabilitiesgreaterthanthepriorPredictabilityofTrainingSitesTrainingSitesSymbolizedonPosteriorProbabilityTopFourFavorabilityUnits?AlligatorGroupHasLowProbability~83%ofthetrainingsitesha18Cross-TabulatedAreaAgreement=92.8%Weights-of-EvidenceModelComparisontoExpert-DefinedFavorableAreasExpert-DelineatedMineralTractsFavorablePermissiveNon-PermissivePermissiveNon-Permissive(includesarea<0.0003,thepriorprobability)NevadaBureauofMines&GeologyOFR96-2Cross-TabulatedAreaAgreement1912

depositsdiscoveredaftermodeling.10of12depositspredictedbymodel.Wright-Window(0.0008)WintersCreek(0.0046)Trenton-Valmy(0.0174)Reona(0.2124)Pipeline&S.Pipeline(0.4921)Saddle(0.0018)GoldCanyon(0.0593)TreasureHill(0.0097)GoldenButte(0.0023)Pan(0.0003)PinonRange-CordRanch(<0.0003)BlindTest12depositsdiscoveredafterm20SedimentaryVolcanicOtherSedimentaryRock-HostedRegional-ScaleMineralExplorationTargetsMaskof10kmBuffersAroundKnownOccurrencesandDeposits:SedimentarySedimentaryRock-Ho21Weights-of-EvidenceNeuralNetworkLogisticRegressionFuzzyLogic(fromWright,1996)Supporters:USGSGSCBarrickGoldComincoAmericaIncoIndependenceMiningNorandaPlacerDomeWMCAlaskaGeologicalSurvey“Arc-SDM”-ArcViewGISExtensionWeights-of-EvidenceNeuralNetw22SoftwareToolsandInformationSpatialDataModelingSoftwareArc-SDMArcViewGISExtensionAvailableJanuary,2001Weights-of-EvidenceModelingSoftwareArc-WofEArcViewGISExtensionhttp://ntserv.gis.nrcan.gc.ca/wofe/http://gis.nrcan.gc.ca/gisdev/GeologicalMapDataModelDataStandardization/OrganizationTool/dmSoftwareToolsandInformation23ApplicationofWOEinNevadaandtheGreatBasinSedimentaryRock-HostedGoldDeposits

ApplicationofWOEinNevadaa24Basin-RangeTopographyViewedFromSpaceNevadaandtheGreatBasinBasin-RangeTopographyNevadaa25SpecificationofModelTrainingThemesEvidenceThemesEstimationor“Fitting”ofModelOptimizeEvidenceThemesResponseThemeValidationofModelEstimationofUncertaintyPredictabilityofTrainingSitesComparisontoExpert-DefinedFavorableAreasBlindTestMineralExplorationTargetsMineralAssessmentModelSpecification,Estimation,ValidationSpecificationofModelSpecificationofModelMineral26MineralTrends

BattleMountain-EurekaCarlinGetchellIndependenceSedimentaryRock-HostedGoldTrainingTheme(98sites)MineralTrendsBattleCarlinGet27TrainingTheme

DepositModel Number(Bliss,1992;CoxandSinger,1986)Sediment-hosted(26a) 89Distaldisseminated(19c) 9Total:98USGSMineralResourceDataSystem,1993&1995SedimentaryRock-HostedGoldOccurrences&DepositsTrainingThemeDepositModel 28TrainingThemeSub-microscopicparticlesofgoldon(orin)disseminatedsulfideminerals(typicallypyrite)instratiform/strataboundorebodiesHostrocksrangefromsilty-carbonatetolimey-clastics~42-30MainageFormedatmediumdepths(3-5km)fromlowtemperature,evolvedmeteoricwaters,withelevatedCO2andlowsalinityTypicallylow-grade,high-tonnage,open-pitoperationsCarlin-TypeSedimentaryRock-HostedGoldTrainingThemeSub-microscopic29EvidenceThemesLithologicLithologicunitsDiversityoflithologicunitsCenozoicigneousrockunitdistancebuffersCenozoicigneousrocktime-slicesCenozoicigneousrockcomposition-slicesMesozoicplutondistancebuffersMesozoicplutondensityClasticandcarbonaterockunitsClasticandcarbonaterockunitdistancebuffersGeochemical(andrelated)K/Na,Ba/Na,U/Th,Fe/Al,La/K,Sc/Fe,Sc/V,K,Al,As(NUREdata)Igneousrockmajorelementanalyses(PETROS)Igneousrockradiometricagedates(RADBdata)Mineralization(metallicdeposits)radiometricagedatesGeographicTopographicelevationShadedreliefoftopographyDegreeoftopographicslopeStructural/tectonicCenozoicfaultdistancebuffersCenozoicfaultdensityThrust-frontdistancebuffersStrike-slipfaultdistancebuffersLANDSATlinear-featuresdistancebuffersLANDSATlinear-featuresdensityHighlyextendeduppercrustalterrainDeep-seatedbasementfracturesystembuffersLithotectonicterraneCrustalthicknessTertiaryrockdipangleanddirectionLate-Paleozoic–earlyMesozoicpaleothermalanomalyGeophysicalBouguergravityanomalyIsostaticresidualgravityanomalyTotalresidualfieldgeomagneticanomalyGeothermalconductivity(gradient)CrustalheatflowGeothermalwellsandspringstemperatureExaminedforModelingEvidenceThemesLithologicStruc30

Estimationor“Fitting”oftheModel…EvidenceThemesSelectedforModelingBa/NaGeochemicalAnomaly地化异常比值Lithology岩性DiversityofLithology岩性多样度LithotectonicTerrane构造岩MesozoicPlutonDistanceBuffers中生代深成岩体BUFFERCenozoicFaultDistanceBuffers新生代断层BUFFERIsostaticResidualGravityAnomaly均衡重力异常TotalResidualFieldGeomagneticAnomaly磁力异常K/NaGeochemicalAnomaly地化异常比值Estimationor“Fitting”ofth31EvidenceTheme-LithologyStewart&Carlson(1978)-101LithologicUnits1:500,000scaleEvidenceTheme-LithologyStew32EvidenceTheme-LithologyAllUnitsHavingaPositiveContrast-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0PzspStOsCtJgbChMDsOsvPMhTgrPMcDcCcJTrsOcTrcCZqTa1PscC(W+-W-)W+W-WeightsofSpatialAssociationEvidenceTheme-LithologyAll33EvidenceTheme-LithologyPredictorThemeUnitsHavingaHighSpatialAssociationwiththeTrainingSitesW+PredictivePatternW

-EvidenceTheme-LithologyPre34OptimizedEvidenceThemesNinePredictorThemesLithologyPlutonBuffersLithotectonicTerraneFaultBuffersLithologicDiversityAeromagnetismIsostaticGravityBa/NaK/NaMissingDataOptimizedEvidenceThemesNine35PredictorThemesRelativeInfluenceinModel-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0-7.5-5.0-2.50.02.55.07.510.012.515.017.520.0(C/Std(C))C(W+-W-)W+W-C/Stdev(C)K/NaLithologyBa/NaLitho-tectonicTerraneIsostaticGravityLithologicDiversityAero-magnetismFaultBuffersPlutonBuffersWeightsofSpatialAssociationPredictorThemesRelativeInflu36SedimentaryRock-HostedPosteriorProbabilityResponseThemeMineralTrends

BattleMountain-EurekaCarlinGetchellIndependence“FavorabilityRanks”(ConditionallyDependentModel)favorablenon-favorableSedimentaryRock-HostedPoster37SpecificationofModelTrainingThemeEvidenceThemesEstimationor“Fitting”ofModelOptimizeEvidenceThemesResponseThemeValidationofModelEstimationofUncertaintyPredictabilityofTrainingSitesComparisontoExpert-DefinedFavorableAreasBlindTestMineralExplorationTargetsMineralAssessmentModelSpecification,Estimation,ValidationSpecificationofModelMineral38RelativeCertaintyofPosteriorProbabilityEstimates~70%~90%~99.5%RelativeConfidenceLevel“RuleofThumb”Pposterior/s(Pposterior)RelativeCertaintyofPosterio39SpatialCoincidence-FavorabilityPattern&RelativeCertaintyPosteriorProbabilityResponsePatternRelativeCertaintyofPosteriorProbabilitiesSpatialCoincidence-Favorabi40~83%ofthetrainingsiteshaveposteriorprobabilitiesgreaterthanthepriorPredictabilityofTrainingSitesTrainingSitesSymbolizedonPosteriorProbabilityTopFourFavorabilityUnits?AlligatorGroupHasLowProbability~83%ofthetrainingsitesha41Cross-TabulatedAreaAgreement=92.8%Weights-o