金融分析组第二届光华管理学院案例大赛

双汇国/r/n际收/r/n购/r/n菲尔德/r/n食品公/r/n司案例/r/n介/r/n一/r/n、/r/n选/r/n题/r/n原/r/n束手无策。/r/n如何进/r/n行/r/n并购，/r/n以合理价格和收购方案取得海外优质资产成/r/n为/r/n并购/r/n的/r/n问/r/n题/r/n。/r/n本/r/n案/r/n例/r/n针/r/n对/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n国/r/n际/r/n/r/n2013/r/n/r/n年/r/n/r/n5/r/n/r/n月/r/n收/r/n购/r/n全/r/n球/r/n最/r/n大/r/n生/r/n产/r/n企/r/n业/r/n菲/r/n尔/r/n企业进/r/n行/r/n并购积累经验。/r/n二/r/n、/r/n案/r/n例/r/n本/r/n案/r/n例/r/n报/r/n告/r/n对/r/n中/r/n资/r/n企/r/n业/r/n在/r/n最/r/n大/r/n规/r/n模/r/n的/r/n并/r/n购/r/n案——双汇收/r/n购/r/n菲/r/n尔/r/n德/r/n进/r/n行/r/n业绩增长有正影响。案例体现的估值和并购方案对于中资企/r/n业/r/n并购具有重要影响。/r/n：/r/n并购；估值；绩效；经验启示/r/n三/r/n、/r/n研/r/n究/r/n思/r/n路/r/n和/r/n分/r/n析/r/n方/r/n对/r/n目/r/n标/r/n公/r/n司/r/n资/r/n产/r/n估/r/n值/r/n，/r/n评/r/n判/r/n并/r/n购/r/n定/r/n价/r/n水/r/n平/r/n；/r/n并/r/n结/r/n合/r/n财/r/n务/r/n分/r/n析/r/n、/r/n事/r/n件/r/n分/r/n析/r/n法/r/n和/r/n/r/nVAR/r/n/r/n模/r/n型/r/n分/r/n1/r/n2/r/n3/r/n案/r/n例/r/n介/r/n绍/r/n图/r/n /r/n并/r/n购/r/n案/r/n例/r/n分/r/n析/r/n思/r/n路/r/n目/r/n/r/n/r/n第一章/r/n并购/r/n案例背/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n第二章/r/n并购/r/n动/r/n /r/n/r/n外在动/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n金/r/n融/r/n的影响/r/n与/r/n菲尔德的困/r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n内在动/r/n /r/n双/r/n汇/r/n进一步发展的内在需/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n第三章/r/n收购/r/n过/r/n /r/n/r/n第四章/r/n/r/n菲尔德公司的估/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n风/r/n险/r/n估值——/r/nBS/r/n/r/n公/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n第五章/r/n并购/r/n绩效分/r/n /r/n/r/n股价水平的/r/nVAR/r/n模/r/n /r/n/r/nCAR/r/n/r/n分/r/n /r/n/r/n财务分/r/n /r/n/r/n第六章/r/n并购/r/n案经验与启/r/n /r/n/r/n附/r/n /r/n并/r/n购/r/n参/r/n与/r/n者/r/n介/r/n在我国/r/n，/r/n生产加工行业受到农业整体滞后的影响，/r/n目/r/n前仍以较为陈旧的方式/r/n发/r/n。/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n是/r/n以肉类加工为主的大型食/r/n品/r/n，是国内最/r/n大/r/n类加工企业，/r/n生产加工业务/r/n为/r/n创造了超过/r/n90%/r/n的营业收入/r/n/r/n总资产约/r/n200/r/n亿元，/r/n并在深交所上/r/n大型的生猪饲/r/n养/r/n，/r/n饲养加工技术相/r/n对/r/n，/r/n对供应源控制不足，/r/n缺乏优质生产生态/r/n取得环境良好的育种和饲/r/n养/r/n，优化产品格局。/r/n。/r/n菲尔德食品公司是世界最大/r/n的/r/n生产商，/r/n其/r/n产品供/r/n销/r/n、中国、/r/n日本和墨西哥，/r/n2012/r/n年销售额为/r/n131/r/n亿/r/n，净收入为/r/n3.6/r/n亿/r/n。公司总资产约/r/n60/r/n亿/r/n，与纽/r/n约/r/n交易所上市/r/n。/r/n菲尔德食品公司共有/r/n4/r/n个生猪场、/r/n85/r/n万头种猪、/r/n40/r/n/r/n家/r/n、/r/n1580/r/n/r/n万头猪的产量，其生猪年产量与双/r/n汇/r/n大致相当，但销售额水平远超双/r/n汇/r/n。下文使用/r/n其/r/n交易代码/r/nSFD/r/n做简称。/r/n表/r/n /r/n双汇/r/n并购/r/nSFD/r/n公司/r/nSWOT/r/n分/r/n长/r/n期/r/n生产加工经/r/n国内终/r/n端/r/n建设比较优/r/n增/r/n扭/r/n建立现/r/n代/r/n生产/r/n，提/r/n并购海/r/n外/r/n加工企业，降/r/n/r/nThreats/r/n多/r/n元/r/n防/r/n国/r/n内/r/n价格/r/n受/r/n影响/r/n扩大自身规模/r/n和/r/n，完善自身的原材料及销售/r/n对于企业自身的政治/r/n通过远期/r/n、/r/n等金融工具/r/n加/r/n外/r/n在/r/n动/r/n近年来，我/r/n国/r/n生产加工行业发展迅速，/r/n但行业集中度十分低下。根/r/n据/r/n发/r/n2012/r/n10%/r/n，同/r/n期/r/n生猪屠宰加工企业前三家的市场份额则达到了/r/n50%/r/n。/r/n就双汇而言，/r/n其/r/n的养殖环节仍处于散养收购的阶段；/r/n在肉制品的市场中，/r/n双汇仍以/r/n中/r/n市场为主。/r/n由于长久存在的分散经营，/r/n生猪屠宰加工行业一方面出现了小企业迅速发展导/r/n致/r/n产能过剩的问题；/r/n另一方面在上游生猪饲养等环节由于缺/r/n乏/r/n经营管理，/r/n对于生猪质量缺乏/r/n一/r/n近年来/r/n国家出台政策大力推广农/r/n业/r/n经营/r/n加速农业生产技术更新换代。针/r/n对/r/n生产加工行业集中度低的情况，从/r/n2011/r/n年/r/n12/r/n月起，/r/n国家通过对企业进行资格/r/n二、/r/n国家对食品安全的重视日益提升。/r/n我国作为世界上最大/r/n的/r/n消费国，/r/n随着人口持续增长，/r/n人民生活的提升，对/r/n于/r/n的需求也将呈持续上涨趋势。/r/n同时，/r/n我国屠宰/r/n大肉类质量安全的/r/n。进一步拓/r/n宽/r/n供/r/n应/r/n，进行有效的产业整合与集中，有利于加/r/n强/r/n，保障人民肉类食品安全。/r/n、/r/n，/r/n三/r/n/r/n/r/n升值压力与日俱增/r/n自/r/n2005/r/n年汇改以来/r/n/r/n/r/n兑/r/n汇率已经由/r/n8.27/r/n2013/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n6.22/r/n。在此背景下，多元化外汇储备，以及将部分外汇储备进/r/n获取/r/n海/r/n源储备的目标。/r/n、/r/n，/r/n国内环境状况/r/n的环境保护措施和清洁的水源，其销售/r/n的/r/n/r/n85%/r/n都来自规模超过/r/n2000/r/n头的大型养猪场。这些养猪场采用气候控制技术，相互独立，极大地降低了疾/r/n病/r/n的风险。/r/n金/r/n融/r/n的影响/r/n与/r/n菲尔德的困/r/n菲尔德公司自/r/n2008/r/n/r/n年以来深受金/r/n融/r/n的影响，经营陷入了一定的困境。/r/nSFD/r/n数据显示，其在/r/n2009/r/n至/r/n2012/r/n年连续处于亏损状态。而其在/r/n2002/r/n年就和比利时/r/nARTAL/r/n/r/n合资成立的专门生产经营肉制品的万威客业务也由于亏损，在/r/n2009/r/n尽/r/n管/r/n菲尔德公司/r/n在/r/n占据第一大市场份额，/r/n但由于我/r/n国/r/n生产加工行业的特殊性/r/n，/r/n第一的双汇占据的市场份额不到/r/n5%/r/n，因/r/n此，此次并购并不会因为强强/r/n也减少了可能被以/r/n“/r/n国家安全/r/n”/r/n为由/r/n被/r/n否决的政治风险。/r/n内/r/n在/r/n动/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n进一步发展的内在需/r/n易为主的模式转换为上下/r/n游/r/n的模式。此外，借助/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司在环保处理、肉类加/r/n超/r/n20/r/n/r/n亿/r/n。通过此次收购，可以提升双汇品牌在国内和国际上/r/n的/r/n，有助于/r/n世界最大/r/n的/r/n市场，/r/n年/r/n消费量约/r/n5000/r/n/r/n万/r/n吨，占全球消费量/r/n50%/r/n。随着城镇化步伐加快，/r/n消费市场增长空间依然可观，/r/n据/r/n统计，/r/n2012/r/n年，/r/n我国鲜冻猪产品进口高达/r/n135/r/n万吨，增长/r/n48.6%/r/n。过去/r/n10/r/n/r/n，国/r/n内/r/n产量年均增长/r/n1.5%/r/n，/r/n国/r/n内/r/n消费需求，我国也自/r/n2008/r/n/r/n年成/r/n为/r/n净进口国。因此，能否在短时间内提/r/n升/r/n产量/r/n满/r/n内/r/n消费需求/r/n成/r/n为/r/n制品公司成功发展的关键/r/n目前，双汇的产品集中在/r/n中/r/n市场，/r/n根据双汇每年的生猪屠宰量/r/n与/r/n每年的生猪出栏量推算，双汇冷鲜肉占国内鲜/r/n冻/r/n销量的比例约为/r/n3%/r/n至/r/n4%/r/n，仍然有着巨大的市场空间。/r/n作/r/n为/r/n最大/r/n的/r/n生产企业，在全球/r/n12/r/n/r/n个国家开展业务，占据美/r/n国/r/n市/r/n场/r/n/r/n30%/r/n的/r/n份/r/n额/r/n。/r/n目/r/n前/r/n市/r/n场/r/n接/r/n近/r/n饱/r/n和/r/n，/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n出/r/n现/r/n增/r/n长/r/n停/r/n滞/r/n，/r/n利/r/n润/r/n大/r/n幅/r/n缩/r/n水（见图/r/n1/r/n、图/r/n2/r/n，/r/n能否/r/n肉市场成为其增长关键。/r/n图/r/n /r/n菲/r/n尔/r/n德/r/n/r/n2009-2013/r/n/r/n年营业/r/n收/r/n入/r/n及/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增/r/n图/r/n /r/n菲/r/n尔/r/n德/r/n/r/n2009-2013/r/n/r/n年净利/r/n润/r/n及/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增/r/n因此，若双汇成功收/r/n购/r/n菲尔德，不仅有助于双汇开拓高端市场和欧美市场/r/n其在国内强大的分/r/n销/r/n也会给/r/nSFD/r/n公司带来新的机会。根/r/n据/r/n消息，/r/nSFD/r/n公司约/r/n50%/r/n的生产农场已完成去/r/n“/r/n瘦肉精/r/n”/r/n工作，/r/n正建立和运营双重饲养/r/n、运送/r/n的/r/n生产与营销模式，筹划一个相对独立的出口市场，针对不同客户的需求，销售成分不同/r/n的/r/n90%/r/n左右，生猪规模养殖比重偏小/r/n供给水平是左/r/n右/r/n价格波动的重要/r/n因/r/n一/r/n受到肉价波动/r/n养殖成本走高、/r/n2011/r/n年瘦肉精事件等因素的影响，/r/n2009/r/n2013/r/n（/r/n3/r/n图/r/n /r/n双汇/r/n2009-2013/r/n年/r/n净/r/n利/r/n润/r/n及/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增/r/n、/r/n只有实现养殖规模化/r/n才能保障供/r/n给/r/n稳定成本价格/r/n保障食品安全，/r/n使得公司未来利润及现金流更稳定。尽管双汇很早构想布局/r/n”/r/n从农田到餐桌/r/n“/r/n的/r/n条/r/n从/r/n2004/r/n年开始着力建设种猪繁/r/n育/r/n但截止/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n双汇年生猪屠宰量仅占行/r/n3%/r/n、/r/n作/r/n为/r/n最大/r/n的/r/n生产商，/r/nSFD/r/n拥有从饲养、/r/n宰杀、分/r/n装和制/r/n作/r/n产品的整套/r/n生/r/n产/r/n链/r/n，/r/n每/r/n年/r/n饲/r/n养/r/n生/r/n猪/r/n占/r/n市/r/n场/r/n总/r/n量/r/n的/r/n/r/n15%/r/n，/r/n生/r/n猪/r/n宰/r/n杀/r/n处/r/n理/r/n占/r/n市/r/n场/r/n总/r/n量/r/n的/r/n/r/n26%/r/n。/r/n但/r/n是/r/n，过/r/n高生猪的年产量占用了太多的资产，以/r/n至/r/n司的/r/nROA/r/n表现不高（见图/r/n4/r/n图/r/n4/r/n/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n与/r/n菲/r/n尔/r/n德/r/nROA/r/n对/r/n比/r/n场需求/r/n和/r/n菲尔德的管理和品牌优势，/r/n提供终端安全有保/r/n障/r/n品；/r/n这次并购也可以有效缓/r/n解/r/n菲尔德由于庞大养猪业造成的低资产周转率。/r/n图/r/n5/r/n/r/n并/r/n购/r/n后/r/n结/r/n构/r/n双汇能成为肉制品商巨头的基础，是/r/n其/r/n肉类产量第一，/r/n且国内生产成本相对/r/n植、/r/n生猪养殖环节的成本优势则难以维持。/r/nSFD/r/n等/r/n企业具有在利用土地密集型农产/r/n了中国在饲料和养殖环节的生产效率早已大/r/n大/r/n于/r/n。由/r/n于/r/n力成本上升速度大大快/r/n于/r/n、/r/n升值等因素，/r/n生产企业已经取得相对于中国企业的成本/r/n6/r/n /r/n优势，将有助于长时期内稳定原料成本/r/n和/r/n原料来源/r/n图/r/n /r/n双/r/n汇/r/n与/r/n菲/r/n尔/r/n德/r/nROA/r/n/r/n对/r/n比/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n二是对/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n进/r/n行/r/n重组，以减轻/r/n其/r/n负担，扣除金融资产后净负债，即金融负债约/r/n24/r/n亿/r/n。收购过程分四步进行，并购流程见并购流程图。/r/nSun/r/nMerger/r/n双汇国际在英属维尔京群岛（/r/nBVI/r/n）/r/n设立一家全资子公司/r/nSun/r/nMerger/r/n/r/nSub/r/n，/r/n作/r/n/r/n第二步，/r/nSun/r/nMerger/r/nSub/r/nSun/r/nMerger/r/n/r/nSub/r/nSFD/r/n达成的并购重组协议，对/r/nSFD/r/n已上/r/n市/r/n的普通股按/r/n34/r/n//r/n股的价格发起全面要约收购。/r/n收购完成后，/r/nSFD/r/n退/r/n通股总计约/r/n1.39/r/n亿股，按/r/n34/r/n/r/n//r/n股计，/r/nSun/r/n/r/nMerger/r/n/r/nSub/r/n大约需支付/r/n47.26/r/n亿/r/n收/r/n，但这并不/r/n是/r/n收购金额的全部/r/nSFD/r/n公司历史悠久，上市时间长，其股权结构中除普通股之外，还包括了多种原因形成/r/n的/r/n最主要的是实施股权激励计划形成的/r/n3/r/n类/r/n包括/r/n绩/r/n效/r/n、递/r/n延/r/n。而对于这/r/n些/r/n，双汇国际（/r/nSunMergerSub/r/n）也需承担相应的收购成本。/r/n表/r/n /r/n双/r/n汇/r/n国/r/n际/r/n三/r/n类/r/n及/r/n收/r/n购/r/n条/r/n件/r/n /r/n种/r/n /r/n （万股/r/n

/r/n收购条/r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n284.82 /r/n收购价格等于行权余额对/r/n应/r/n数乘以/r/n34/r/n/r/n收购/r/n与行权价（平均/r/n22.36/r/n/r/n//r/n股）之/r/n

/r/n绩/r/n效/r/n/r/n /r/n收购价格等于行权余额对/r/n应/r/n数乘以/r/n34/r/n/r/n/r/n递/r/n延/r/n/r/n /r/n收购价格等于行权余额对/r/n应/r/n数乘以/r/n34/r/n/r/n/r/n合/r/n /r/n /r/n图/r/n /r/n双/r/n汇/r/n收/r/n购/r/n成/r/n本/r/n构/r/n成/r/n第三步，/r/nSFD/r/nSun/r/nMerger/r/nSun/r/nMerger/r/nSub/r/nSFD/r/nSFD/r/nSun/r/nMerger/r/nSub/r/n（子公司吸收合并母公司，反向三角并购/r/n，/r/nSF/r/nD/r/n成为双汇国际的全资子公司，/r/nSunMergerSub/r/nSFD/r/n为主的双轮驱动模式；在财务状况影响上，/r/nSFD/r/n的资产负债表没有发生重大变化，/r/n尤其是/r/n其/r/n不会发生重大变/r/n（中国银行/r/n40/r/n亿/r/n全部由双汇国际承担/r/n与/r/nSFD/r/n第四步，对/r/nSFD/r/n进/r/n行/r/n重/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n国/r/n际/r/n的/r/n40/r/n亿/r/n收/r/n购/r/n与/r/nSFD/r/n没/r/n有/r/n直/r/n接/r/n关/r/n系/r/n，/r/n不/r/n反/r/n映/r/n在/r/nSFD/r/n的/r/n资/r/n产/r/n负/r/n债表上，不增加/r/nSFD/r/n负担，但双汇国际仍决定对/r/nSFD/r/n进/r/n行/r/n重组。/r/n根/r/n据/r/nSFD/r/n年/r/n报/r/n，/r/n截/r/n至/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n4/r/n月/r/n29/r/n日/r/n，SFD/r/n总/r/n额/r/n为/r/n46.18/r/n亿/r/n，/r/n主/r/n要/r/n由/r/n经/r/n款/r/n的/r/n额/r/n度/r/n及/r/n融/r/n资/r/n方/r/n进/r/n行/r/n调/r/n整/r/n和/r/n针/r/n对/r/n债/r/n券/r/n的/r/n赎/r/n回/r/n，/r/n涉/r/n及/r/n已/r/n发/r/n生/r/n的/r/n金/r/n额/r/n在/r/n/r/n24.65/r/n/r/n亿/r/nSFD/r/n的相关资产进行担保或抵押。由于无法得知具体融资细节，很难/r/n对/r/n重组收益进/r/n行详尽分析。通过这样的方式，/r/nSFD/r/n将获得更/r/n加/r/n的/r/n。/r/n表/r/n SFD/r/n重/r/n组/r/n方/r/n案/r/n序/r/n 现/r/n 调整方/r/n 循环/r/n额度/r/n14.43/r/n亿/r/n1.65/r/n12.78/r/n

/r/n额度调整为/r/n7.5/r/n亿/r/n，/r/n主要采取/r/nABL/r/n1./r/n/r/n/r/n银行/r/n2/r/n2./r/n/r/nRabo/r/n银行/r/n2/r/n亿/r/n3.4/r/n亿/r/n可/r/n转/r/n1.2022/r/n年到期/r/n的/r/n9.95/r/n亿/r/n债/r/n2.2017/r/n年到/r/n期的/r/n5/r/n亿/r/n债券/r/n

/r/n与循环/r/n配合，定期/r/n额度为/r/n16.5/r/n亿/r/n，并/r/n对/r/n现有/r/n获得/r/n15/r/n亿/r/n过桥/r/n对现有债券进行置/r/n8/r/n一定条件下进一步转化为优先级票据（夹层融资/r/n经/r/n过/r/n上/r/n述/r/n的/r/n四/r/n个/r/n步/r/n骤/r/n，/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n国/r/n际/r/n得/r/n以/r/n将/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n纳/r/n入/r/n囊/r/n中/r/n，/r/n一/r/n举/r/n奠/r/n定/r/n其/r/n在/r/n国/r/n际/r/n肉/r/n类/r/n加/r/n工/r/n另外/r/n双汇国际的收购方式/r/n并/r/n型的杠杆收购/r/n虽然此次收购的杠杆比例较/r/n（/r/n若/r/n双汇国际投入自/r/n有/r/n8.14/r/n亿/r/n，则此次收购的杠杆比率在/r/n5/r/n倍左右），但/r/n资/r/n不/r/n关/r/n闭/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n任/r/n何/r/n原/r/n有/r/n工/r/n厂/r/n、/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n的/r/n管/r/n理/r/n团/r/n队/r/n和/r/n职/r/n工/r/n队/r/n伍/r/n将/r/n继/r/n续/r/n保/r/n留/r/n原/r/n位/r/n等/r/n，/r/n都/r/n与/r/n典/r/n型/r/n的/r/n图/r/n /r/n双/r/n汇/r/n收/r/n购/r/n菲/r/n尔/r/n德/r/n过/r/n程/r/n第四章/r/n菲尔德/r/n公司的/r/n估/r/n股/r/n息/r/n贴/r/n现/r/nT/r/n1/r/n/r/n

/r/n)(1/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/n

/r/n /r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/nP/r/ne/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n/r/ni/r/nt/r/n

/r/n[1/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/n

/r/n

/r/n[1/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/nn/r/n/r/n /r/nE/r/n(/r/nR/r/ni/r/n)/r/n/r/n/r/ng/r/nn/r/n /r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/nE/r/n(/r/nR/r/ni/r/n其/r/n中/r/n，/r/nP/r/ne/r/n为/r/n预/r/n期/r/n 价格，/r/n

/r/n)/r/nt=1/r/n/r/n期/r/n的/r/n预/r/n期/r/n股/r/n息/r/n红/r/n利/r/n支/r/n付/r/ng/r/ni/r/n/r/n表/r/n示/r/n阶/r/n段/r/ng/r/nn/r/nR/r/ni/r/n贴现率/r/ni/r/n为阶段/r/ni/r/n/r/n的长度。贴现/r/n率/r/nR/r/ni/r/n为根据/r/nCAPM/r/n/r/n公式和/r/n菲尔德公司/r/nβ/r/n计算出的预期公司股权收益率。/r/n。/r/n由于/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司此前从未/r/n过股息红利，因此对于初次/r/n股息的水平只能根/r/n据/r/n行业平均水平估计/r/n/r/n选择在纽约/r/n交易所和纳斯达克上市的从事肉类加工的/r/n6/r/n家/r/n/r/n/r/n。/r/n1.08/r/n1/r/n2/r/n考虑到/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司长期未/r/n股利，因此在未来可能会在一段时间内集中/r/n较高/r/n水平的股利，或者初始阶段股利增长速度较快，因此第一阶段增长率/r/ng/r/n最高；一定时期/r/n后，会逐渐向正常水平收敛，考虑到市场惯性第二阶段的收益率水平设定为/r/ng/r/n/r/n1/r/n2/r/n最/r/n终/r/n，/r/n增/r/n长/r/n率/r/n水/r/n平/r/n将/r/n收/r/n敛/r/n到/r/n正/r/n常/r/n水/r/n平/r/n，即/r/ng/r/nn/r/n/r/n，且/r/n4/r/n5/r/ng/r/n1/r/n=8%/r/ng/r/n2/r/n=5%/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/ng/r/n2/r/n/r/n。/r/n假/r/n设/r/n第/r/n一/r/n、/r/n第/r/n二/r/n阶/r/n段/r/n市/r/n场/r/n9/r/n/r/n三/r/n阶/r/n段/r/n鼓/r/n励/r/n增/r/n长/r/n模/r/n维图。在理性区间内，/r/nSFD/r/n公司的估值范/r/n围/r/n：/r/n图/r/n /r/n贴现率为/r/n/r/n7.4%/r/n时/r/n估/r/n值/r/n三/r/n维/r/n图/r/n /r/n初始/r/n股/r/n利/r/n为/r/n0.85/r/n/r/n时/r/n估/r/n值/r/n三/r/n维/r/n图/r/n /r/n稳定/r/n期/r/n股/r/n利/r/n增/r/n长/r/n率为/r/n/r/n3%/r/n时估/r/n值/r/n三/r/n维/r/n根据股利贴现模型/r/n对/r/n进行估值，/r/n初始股利水平、/r/n股息贴现率水平和固定器股利增长率的变动情况将直接影/r/n响/r/n估值水平，/r/n初始股利越高，/r/n股息贴现率越高，/r/n稳定期/r/n股利增长率越高，则价值越高。根据初始股息水平/r/nE/r/n(/r/nD/r/ni/r/n1/r/n)/r/n和第三阶段增长水平/r/ng/r/nn/r/n/r/n在/r/n给/r/n定/r/n范/r/n围/r/n当/r/n中/r/n的/r/n波/r/n动/r/n情/r/n况/r/n将/r/n得/r/n到/r/n每/r/n股/r/n估/r/n值/r/n水/r/n平/r/n的/r/n波/r/n动/r/n范/r/n围/r/nE/r/n(/r/nD/r/ni/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/ng/r/n/r/n/r/n[0,5%]/r/n，得到/r/nP/r/ne/r/n的波动区间为/r/n[10.14,543.35]/r/n，且当/r/nE/r/n(/r/nD/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/ng/r/n/r/n

/r/n3/r/n时/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n估值为/r/n /r/n，/r/n当/r/nE/r/n(/r/nD/r/ni/r/n1/r/n)/r/n

/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n3%/r/n时/r/n，/r/n估/r/n值/r/n为/r/n /r/n总体而言，对/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n价值估计的合理区间具有一定的波动性，并且随着/r/n市/r/n市/r/n盈/r/n率/r/n定/r/n价/r/np/r/nt/r/n/r/n

/r/n

/r/n/r/np/r/nt/r/nSFD/r/nt/r/nEPS/r/nt/r/nt/r/n期的正常每股收益。取行/r/n20.9/r/nSFD/r/n2010/r/n2013/r/n0.65/r/n3.12/r/n2.21/r/n1.33/r/n1.83/r/nSFD/r/nSFD/r/n38.19/r/n风/r/n险/r/n估值——/r/nBS/r/n/r/n公/r/nMerton/r/n提/r/n出风/r/n险/r/n估值理论/r/n该理论认为银行债权人贷出一笔款项所得到/r/n的/r/n与向投资者卖出一份借款企业的看/r/n跌/r/n是同构的。/r/n假设：在/r/n到期时，/r/n借款公司在利息贴现/r/n基/r/n础上须向/r/n银/r/n行偿还数/r/n额/r/n为/r/n的风/r/n险/r/n，此时/r/n借/r/n款公司的/r/n资/r/n产的市场/r/n价/r/n值为/r/n。/r/n在/r/n风/r/n险/r/n到/r/n期/r/n日/r/n，/r/n如/r/n果/r/n，/r/n则/r/n借/r/n款/r/n公/r/n司/r/n有/r/n动/r/n力/r/n偿/r/n还/r/n/r/n，/r/n投/r/n资/r/n者/r/n选/r/n择/r/n不/r/n执/r/n行/r/n。/r/n此时，/r/n银行的利息和本金都能够得到全部偿还；/r/n如果/r/n，/r/n借款公司由于丧失偿/r/n还/r/n的能力，/r/n迫/r/n于无奈会/r/n选/r/n择违约，/r/n投/r/n资者执行/r/n该/r/n看/r/n跌/r/n，/r/n行权价为。/r/n根据/r/n这一理论可以计算公司的市场价值/r/nV/r/nA/r/n及其波动率/r/n/r/n/r/nA/r/n。在收购当中，对于被收购公司的/r/n股东才会选择出售公司，不论公司资产的市场价值/r/n与/r/n价值的关系。/r/n采用/r/nBS/r/n/r/n定价公式对/r/nSFD/r/n公司的资产价值进行估值/r/n /r/nE/r/n/r/nV/r/n/r/nN/r/n/r/nd/r/n/r/n/r/n-/r/ne/r/n-rt/r/n/r/nD/r/n/r/nN/r/n/r/nd/r/n /r/n1/r/nln/r/n/r/nV/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nr/r/n /r/nσ/r/n/r/n2/r/n/r/nt/r/n1/r/n/r/nD/r/n /r/n /r/n2/r/n/r/nA/r/n/r/nd/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/nd/r/n/r/nt/r/n1/r/nt/r/nt/r/nd/r/n2/r/n/r/n/r/nd/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nt/r/nV/r/n/r/nE/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nV/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/nN/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/nA/r/n式/r/n中/r/nE/r/n/r/n:/r/n股/r/n权/r/n的/r/n市/r/n场/r/n价/r/n值/r/nD/r/n/r/n:/r/n负/r/n债/r/n价/r/n值/r/n；/r/nV/r/n/r/n:/r/n公/r/n司/r/n资/r/n产/r/n的/r/n市/r/n场/r/n价/r/n值/r/nσ/r/nE/r/n/r/n：/r/n公/r/n司/r/n股/r/n权/r/n市/r/n场/r/n价/r/n值/r/n波/r/n动/r/n率/r/n；/r/nt:/r/n信/r/n用/r/n期/r/n限/r/n（/r/n负/r/n债/r/n的/r/n久/r/n期/r/n；/r/n/r/nr/r/n/r/n:/r/n无/r/n风/r/n险/r/n利/r/n率/r/n；/r/n/r/nN/r/n/r/n:/r/n正/r/n态/r/n分/r/n布/r/n累/r/n积/r/n概/r/n率/r/n1/r/nA/r/n联立方程，共有两个求知数/r/n,/r/n可求出/r/nV/r/nA/r/n/r/n和/r/n/r/n/r/nA/r/n/r/n公司股权/r/n市/r/n场价值＝/r/n日/r/n平均收盘/r/n价/r/n格/r/n×/r/n公司/r/n已/r/n普通/r/n股/r/n股数。日/r/n平/r/n均收盘价/r/n采用并购前/r/n15/r/n个交易日的平均收盘价，计算为/r/n25.96/r/n//r/n股。/r/nSFD/r/n公司/r/n已/r/n的普通股股数为/r/n138919056/r/n股。计算得股权市场价值为/r/n3606338692.76/r/n/r/n。/r/n二、股权市场价值波动率/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n2009/r/n1/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n日/r/n至/r/n2012/r/n/r/n12/r/n/r/n31/r/n/r/n日/r/n的/r/n股/r/n价/r/n数/r/n据/r/n估/r/n计/r/nσ/r/nE/r/n/r/n以/r/n满/r/n足/r/nGARCH/r/n/r/n模/r/n型/r/n要/r/n如表/r/n4/r/n/r/n所示，单位根检验显示股价序列/r/n{Price}/r/n不平稳，对股价序列序列/r/n{Price}/r/n做/r/nHP/r/n滤波，得到不包含趋势性影响因素的平稳序列/r/n{Price*}/r/n。对/r/n{Price*}/r/n序列进行单位根/r/n4/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n股/r/n价/r/n序/r/n列/r/n单/r/n位/r/n根/r/n检/r/n验/r/n结/r/n果/r/nP/r/n

/r/n/r/n

/r/n

/r/n /r/nε/r/n2/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nv/r/n

/r/nh/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n t/r/n/r/n

/r/n /r/nt/r/n

/r/nt/r/n /r/n /r/n其中，/r/nv/r/nt/r/n为白噪声过程，/r/nAIC=0.67 /r/n三/r/n、/r/n价值/r/n长/r/n期/r/n负/r/n债/r/n，/r/nDPT/r/n/r/n为/r/n违/r/n约/r/n点/r/n。根据/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n的/r/n财/r/n务/r/n报/r/n表/r/n数据，/r/nSTD=17.462/r/n/r/n亿/r/n，/r/n=28.725/r/n亿/r/n

/r/n

/r/n=31.825/r/n/r/n亿/r/n元/r/n，/r/nDPT/r/n2/r/n=/r/n/r/n39.006/r/n/r/n /r/n以美联/r/n储/r/n的/r/n基金利率作为市场无风险利率，无风险利率为/r/n0.55%/r/n五、期限/r/n根/r/n据/r/n定价原理/r/n，/r/n的时间期限是指持/r/n有/r/n到/r/n行权日之间的时间长度，行权日期为企/r/n业/r/n到期时间，/r/n由于企业通常具有多笔负债，/r/n且负债期限不同，/r/n本案例通过计/r/n算/r/n久期，/r/n将债券久期作为行权时间的长度。/r/n到期日是/r/n/r/n持有者比较标的物/r/n0.5/r/n/r/n年、/r/n3/r/n5/r/n1/r/nSFD/r/n公司的资产市场价值和市场价值波动率标准差分别为：/r/n表/r/n /r/n基/r/n于/r/n风/r/n险/r/n估/r/n值/r/n理/r/n论/r/n计/r/n算的/r/nSFD/r/n公/r/n司/r/n资/r/n产/r/n市/r/n场/r/n价/r/n值/r/n及/r/n其/r/n波/r/n动率/r/n/r/n单/r/n位/r/n根据风/r/n险/r/n估值理论和/r/nBS/r/n公式计算出的/r/nSFD/r/n公司资产市场价值显示/r/n在不同的/r/n价值/r/n和/r/n期限设定情况下，并购案的实际成交金额包含于/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司的资产价值区间当中，/r/n在部分情况中，/r/nSFD/r/n公司资产价值被低估，在 /r/n且设定短期负债平均期限为/r/n0.5/r/n年，长期负债平均期限为/r/n2/r/n年时，公司的资产市场价值/r/n /r/n.03/r/n/r/n，每股价值波动标准差为/r/n139.81%/r/n。总体而言，并购案中对/r/nSFD/r/n博/r/n弈/r/n定/r/n价/r/n分/r/n以协议的形式进行兼并收购通常需要经过收购双方之间的谈判和讨价还价过程/r/n./r/n在/r/n善/r/n意/r/n并购/r/n中/r/n,/r/n企业并购双/r/n方/r/n的管理层/r/n作/r/n为本企业/r/n股/r/n东/r/n的/r/n,/r/n就并购交/r/n易/r/n进行谈判/r/n和/r/n议价以确定最终的交易价格。/r/n下面建立并购方（双/r/n汇/r/n）/r/n与被并购方（/r/nSFD/r/n）/r/n二元博弈/r/n一、存在单一买方（双/r/n汇/r/n）和单一卖方（指/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n五、买方的保留价值（/r/nreservation/r/n/r/nvalue/r/n）严格大于卖方的保留价值，以保证交易/r/n六、/r/n的价格调整因子由其议价阶段的耐心决定/r/n七、并购双方的保留价值为博弈各方的共同知识（/r/ncommon/r/nknowledg/r/ne/r/n，/r/n在/r/n定/r/n价/r/n过/r/n程/r/n中/r/n，/r/n若/r/n是/r/n出/r/n现/r/nv/r/n1/r/n/r/np/r/n2/r/n/r/np/r/n1/r/n/r/nv/r/n2/r/n的/r/n情/r/n况/r/n，/r/n因/r/n为/r/n被/r/n并/r/n购/r/n方（/r/nSFD/r/n）/r/n的/r/n要/r/n价/r/np/r/n1/r/n要低于买者的预/r/n期/r/nv/r/n2/r/n/r/n，而并购方（双汇）的出价/r/np/r/n2/r/n/r/n高于卖者的预期/r/nv/r/n1/r/n/r/n，/r/n仍/r/n然/r/n还是存在着谈判的余地，/r/n在允许讨价还价的前提下/r/n/r/n经济/r/n“/r/n蛋糕/r/n”/r/n的分配状况：用/r/nx/r/ni/r/n，/r/n表/r/n示/r/n参/r/n与/r/n人/r/ni/r/n/r/n的/r/n占/r/n有/r/n份/r/n额/r/n，/r/n则/r/n另/r/n外/r/n一/r/n个/r/n人/r/n的/r/n份/r/n额/r/n为/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/nx/r/ni/r/n，其中/r/n0/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/n，/r/n显/r/n然/r/n经/r/n济/r/n蛋/r/nv/r/nv/r/n2/r/n

/r/n/r/nv/r/n1/r/n（/r/n1/r/n表示/r/n1/r/n1/r/n（/r/n2/r/n表示/r/n11/r/nx/r/n2/r/n1/r/nx/r/n2/r/n1/r/n交割，若/r/n1/r/n2/r/n/r/np/r/np/r/n2/r/n/r/np/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/n1/r/np/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/ni/r/nj/r/n1/r/n/r/n开/r/n始/r/n取/r/n整/r/n数/r/n值/r/n /r/n

/r/n 2/r/n现在假设卖方（/r/nSFD/r/n）/r/n的贴现系数是/r/n/r/n1/r/n，而买方（双汇发展）/r/n的贴现系数是/r/n/r/n2/r/n。我/r/n们可以证明，在无限期轮流出价的博弈中，谈判结果的唯一的子博弈纳什均衡是/r/nx/r/n*/r/n/r/n

/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n

/r/n

/r/n/r/nv/r/n1/r/n)/r/n1/r/nt/r/nm/r/n（/r/nm/r/n是百分比/r/nt/r/nm/r/n等价于/r/nt-1/r/n期的/r/n/r/n1/r/nm/r/n2/r/n/r/nt-1/r/n/r/n期最多得到/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/nm/r/nt-1/r/n/r/n期的/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/nm/r/nt-2/r/n/r/n期/r/n的/r/n/r/n2/r/n(1/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/nm/r/n)/r/n1/r/n/r/nt-2/r/n/r/nx/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n2/r/n(1/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/nm/r/n)/r/n1/r/n（即买/r/nSFD/r/n）/r/nt/r/nt-2/r/n期得到的必须一样，这才是一个有效的多回合博弈。/r/nSFD/r/nt-2/r/nt/r/n期得到的，则博弈达到均衡。/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n

/r/n

/r/n第/r/nt-2/r/n 第/r/nt-1/r/n 第/r/nt/r/n/r/n图/r/n /r/n双/r/n汇/r/n与/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司/r/n收/r/n购/r/n定/r/n价/r/n博/r/n弈/r/n过/r/n程/r/n因/r/n此/r/n，/r/n推/r/n出/r/nm/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n

/r/n2/r/n(1/r/n/r/n/r/n1/r/nm/r/n)/r/n，/r/n推/r/n出/r/nm/r/n/r/n

/r/n1/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n从/r/n参/r/n与/r/n人/r/n/r/n1/r/n（/r/n被/r/n并/r/n购/r/n方/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n）/r/n出/r/n价/r/n的/r/n任/r/n何/r/n一/r/n个/r/n阶/r/n段/r/n开/r/n始/r/n的/r/n子/r/n博/r/n弈/r/n等/r/n价/r/n于/r/n从/r/n/r/nt=1/r/n/r/n开始/r/n股价/r/n水/r/n平/r/n的/r/nVAR/r/n/r/n模/r/nVAR/r/n模型。/r/n对/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n/r/n日至/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n9/r/n月/r/n30/r/n日的/r/nSFD/r/n公司股价和双汇发展股价的单位/r/n表/r/n /r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n与/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n发/r/n展/r/n股/r/n价/r/n序/r/n列/r/n单/r/n位/r/n根/r/n检/r/n验/r/nt/r/n0/r/n0/r/n表/r/n /r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n与/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n发展/r/n收/r/n益/r/n率/r/n序/r/n列/r/n单/r/n位/r/n根/r/n检/r/n验/r/nt/r/n0/r/n0/r/n-/r/nJohansen/r/n表/r/n /r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n与/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n发/r/n展/r/n收/r/n益/r/n率/r/n序/r/n列/r/n协/r/n整/r/n检/r/n验/r/n附注/r/n2/r/n：/r/n*/r/n表/r/n示在/r/n10%/r/n的/r/n显著性水平/r/n下/r/n原假设，/r/n**/r/n表示在/r/n5%/r/n的显著/r/n性水平/r/n下/r/n原假设/r/n***/r/n表示在/r/n1%/r/n显著性水平/r/n下/r/n原假设/r/n设/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n权/r/n益/r/n收/r/n益/r/n率/r/n为/r/nr/r/nsfd/r/n/r/n，/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n公/r/n司/r/n收/r/n益/r/n率/r/n为/r/nr/r/nsh/r/n/r/n。/r/n模/r/n型/r/n设/r/n定/r/n /r/np/r/nx/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nA/r/nL/r/ni/r/nx/r/n/r/n/r/np/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n /r/nx/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n

/r/nr/r/nsh/r/n/r/n

/r/n，/r/ne/r/nt/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nt/r/n/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/nt/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nt/r/n/r/n/r/n。/r/nL/r/n

/r/ni/r/ni/r/n/r/ni/r/n系数矩阵，/r/n/r/nt/r/n/r/n表示影响/r/nSFD/r/n公司/r/n 价格的随机干扰项，/r/n/r/nt/r/n/r/n表示影响双汇公/r/n /r/n/r/nr/r/nsfd/r/n/r/n

/r/n/r/n /r/n0.164/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nr/r/nsfd/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n/r/n/r/nt/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n /r/n

/r/n/r/n

/r/n

/r/n

/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n/r/nt/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n四期以后逐渐收敛于/r/n0/r/nSFD/r/n公司/r/n的随机冲击对双汇发展/r/n的/r/n收益率具有一定的影响/r/n，/r/n且很快收敛于/r/n0/r/n。/r/n双汇发展的随机冲击对/r/nSFD/r/n的/r/n收益率的影响不显著。/r/n根据双方达/r/n而双汇在并购中采用了杠杆融资，/r/n可能受到被并购方的随机冲击的影响，/r/n导致/r/n其/r/n收/r/nSFD/r/n的随机因素的影响。/r/nImpulse/r/nImpulse/r/n /r/nResponse/r/n/r/nof/r/nSFD/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/nResponse/r/n/r/nofSFD/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/nResponse/r/n/r/nofSH/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/nResponse/r/n/r/nofSH/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n图/r/n /r/n并购/r/n后/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n与/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司/r/n收/r/n益/r/n率/r/n脉/r/n冲/r/n响/r/n应/r/n /r/nResponse/r/n/r/nof/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/nResponse/r/n/r/nof/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/nResponse/r/n/r/nof/r/n/r/nRSH/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/nResponse/r/n/r/n /r/nResponse/r/n/r/nof/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/nResponse/r/n/r/nof/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/nResponse/r/n/r/nof/r/n/r/nRSH/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/nResponse/r/n/r/nof/r/n/r/nSH/r/n/r/nto/r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n图/r/n /r/n并购/r/n前/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n与/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司/r/n收/r/n益/r/n率/r/n脉/r/n冲/r/n响/r/n应/r/nCAR/r/n分/r/n事/r/n件/r/n研/r/n究/r/n法/r/n指/r/n运/r/n用/r/n的/r/n各/r/n项/r/n数/r/n据/r/n资/r/n料/r/n来/r/n测/r/n定/r/n上/r/n市/r/n公/r/n司/r/n价/r/n值/r/n对/r/n于/r/n某/r/n特/r/n定/r/n的/r/n经/r/nCAR/r/n分别研究并购方（双汇发展）和被并购方/r/n一、界定事件。双汇并购/r/nSFD/r/n公告日期是/r/n2013/r/n/r/n年/r/n5/r/n/r/n月/r/n30/r/n/r/n日，所/r/n以/r/n界定该日为并/r/n购/r/n日，即时间发生/r/n该期/r/nt=0/r/n。/r/n2012/r/n10/r/n1/r/n2013/r/n4/r/n30/r/n30/r/n1/r/n（/r/n0/r/n，/r/n6/r/n双汇发展的估计方程为/r/n利用估计的/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/nCAR/r/n图/r/n /r/n双汇/r/n发/r/n展/r/n与/r/nSFD/r/n公/r/n司/r/nCAR/r/n值/r/nSFD/r/n和双汇都是好的。/r/nCAR/r/n在接近并购日之际，随着并购/r/nSFD/r/n27%/r/n的超额收益，为双汇带来了最高/r/n30%/r/n的超额收益，体现了投资者对该并购案前景的乐观。在并购公告后，/r/nCAR/r/n保/r/n财/r/n务/r/n分/r/n双汇在/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n5/r/n月/r/n30/r/n日成功并/r/n购/r/n菲尔德后，各/r/n项/r/n指标都有显著提升/r/n2013/r/n年营业收入为/r/n449.51/r/n13.21%/r/n2011/r/n年/r/n2012/r/n年增长幅度仅为/r/n5.55%/r/n；/r/n2013/r/n40.69/r/n32.59%/r/n而/r/n反/r/n映/r/n资/r/n产/r/n能/r/n力/r/n的/r/n指/r/n标/r/nROA/r/n/r/n和/r/nROE/r/n/r/n稳/r/n步/r/n上/r/n升/r/n趋/r/n（/r/n见/r/n图/r/n17/r/nROA/r/n/r/n从/r/n年/r/n初/r/n的/r/n/r/n4.51%/r/n大/r/n幅/r/n上/r/n升/r/n到/r/n20.61%/r/n即/r/n使/r/n考/r/n虑/r/n销/r/n量/r/n的/r/n季/r/n节/r/n波/r/n动/r/nRO/r/nA/r/n/r/n表/r/n现/r/n依/r/n然/r/n十/r/n分/r/n突/r/n出/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n各/r/n季/r/n度/r/n/r/nROA/r/n/r/n同/r/n期/r/n增/r/n长/r/n率/r/n分/r/n别/r/n为/r/n/r/n42.75%/r/n、/r/n49.65%/r/n、/r/n14.93%/r/n及/r/n12.10%/r/n。/r/n同/r/n理/r/n，/r/n2013/r/n/r/n年/r/nROE/r/n23.55%/r/n、/r/n30.94%/r/n、/r/n8.02%/r/n、/r/n10.94%/r/n。/r/n17/r/n/r/n并购/r/n后/r/n双/r/nROA/r/n、/r/nROE/r/n变化/r/n趋/r/n势/r/n长和三项费/r/n用/r/n的逐步下降（见图/r/n18/r/n）可以直接反映出双汇成功并购/r/nSFD/r/n后，其在/r/n18/r/n/r/n并购/r/n前/r/n后/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n成/r/n本/r/n费/r/n用/r/n控/r/n制/r/n变/r/n化/r/n特别值得强调的是，单/r/n独/r/n2013/r/n年各季度（非累计）的营业收入、营业成本/r/n用、/r/n净/r/n利/r/n润/r/n比/r/n对/r/n/r/n2012/r/n/r/n年/r/n各/r/n季/r/n度/r/n的/r/n变/r/n动/r/n，/r/n发/r/n现/r/n，从/r/n2013/r/n/r/n年/r/n第/r/n三/r/n季/r/n度/r/n开/r/n始（/r/n并/r/n购后/r/n，营业收入以较大幅度增长，同/r/n时/r/n用反而大幅下降。这反映出并购后，由于纵/r/n /r/n9/r/n/r/n2013/r/n年度部分/r/n业/r/n绩/r/n指/r/n标/r/n变/r/n化/r/n情/r/n况/r/n用/r/n表/r/n/r/n10/r/n/r/n合/r/n并/r/n后/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n国/r/n际/r/n模/r/n拟/r/n财/r/n务/r/n报/r/n表/r/n的/r/n主/r/n要/r/n数/r/n2012/r/n/r/n（/r/n）/r/n（/r/n71/r/n）/r/n资产（亿元/r/n负债（亿元/r/n附注/r/n3/r/n：/r/n菲尔德报表财年为/r/n5/r/n月/r/n1/r/n/r/n日至次年/r/n4/r/n/r/n月/r/n30/r/n/r/n日，财务数据已折算/r/n为/r/n通过表/r/n10/r/n/r/n可以看出，双汇发展以/r/n及/r/n菲尔德在核算期间存在差异，在忽略上述因素的情况下，/r/n通过简单/r/n加/r/n此基础上，/r/n再考虑全部通/r/n过/r/n融资解决的收购资金/r/n71/r/n亿/r/n（约/r/n合/r/n/r/n437/r/n亿元）纳/r/n入/r/n核算，静态估算后双汇国际的资产总额/r/n1077.93/r/n70.63%/r/n，仍处于相对可控水平。/r/n偿还方面/r/n由/r/n开资料有限/r/n未能获/r/n取/r/n偿还方式及期限/r/n双汇发展于/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n9/r/n月/r/n17/r/n日发布公告称，接到大股东罗斯克/r/n斯/r/n通知，双汇发展每年的归属母公司净利润在计提盈余公积后/r/n将不低于/r/n70%/r/n的利润用于分红以及偿还/r/n按照/r/n2013/r/n年双汇发/r/n展/r/n水平可提/r/n供/r/n25.64/r/n亿元用于偿还/r/n相较于高/r/n达/r/n71/r/n亿/r/n的有息/r/n，双汇发展提/r/n供/r/n仅能满足利息支出需求；/r/n在此基础上，/r/n即使考虑/r/n到/r/n菲尔德的盈利情况/r/n（/r/n菲尔德/r/n2013/r/n新财年一季度利润仅为/r/n3950/r/n万/r/n，/r/n同比下滑/r/n36%/r/n，且连/r/n部借款维/r/n持/r/n周转，短期内双汇国际资产负债率等财务指标难以好转。/r/n总体来看，/r/n此次收购完成后，/r/n双汇海外业务将仍/r/n以/r/n菲尔德为主导，/r/n短期内对双汇本土品牌国际市/r/n场/r/n提升有限，/r/n长期看有利于/r/n其/r/n的完善。/r/n此外，/r/n海外并购涉/r/n及/r/n企业不同的文化/r/n管/r/n理/r/n问题/r/n如/r/n果/r/n并购的企业不能很好地适应文化、/r/n双汇并购/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n案/r/n企业收购美企的最大规模交易，经过上述分析/r/n，/r/n认为并购总体成功，其经验可以归纳/r/n为/r/n和外部因素两个方面。/r/n一、/r/n/r/n因/r/n1/r/n、交/r/n易/r/n充分，实力雄/r/n通过并购，/r/n双汇可获得先/r/n进/r/n猪生产管理技术，/r/n优化自身产品结构，/r/n拓展利润空间，/r/n同时可学习/r/nSFD/r/n物流和质量管控经验，/r/n促进双汇成为/r/n全/r/n肉制品企业。/r/n此外，/r/nSFD/r/n公司通过并购，可/r/n中国广阔的/r/n产品市场，/r/n实现业绩和/r/n增长，/r/n提升/r/n2/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司未来现金流预期、资产价值、负债价值等重要的财务信息。这与美/r/n国/r/n市/r/n场/r/n出/r/n现/r/n的/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n低/r/n估/r/n的/r/n观/r/n点/r/n一/r/n致/r/n，也/r/n符/r/n合/r/n/r/nCAR/r/n/r/n分/r/n析/r/n结/r/n果/r/n。/r/n尽/r/n管/r/n国/r/n分/r/n观/r/n点/r/n认/r/n/r/n也属于正常范围。此次并购总体定价合理，对双/r/n汇/r/n为中性偏向利好。/r/n3/r/n方式完成收购，以节约企业现金资源。相较于外国企业，中国企业缺乏通/r/n过/r/n债券、优先股的融资方式，/r/n夹层基金/r/n和/r/n提供的夹层融资也很有限，/r/n仅依赖银/r/n行/r/n获/r/n取/r/n的融资模式限制了并购的进行。/r/n本次收购过程中，双汇国际通过中国银行纽约分行和摩根斯坦利银行进行并购融资。中国银行纽约分行提供/r/n40/r/n亿/r/n银/r/n团/r/n，以承担收购股/r/n东/r/n支出，通过双/r/n国际资产和/r/nD/r/n公司全/r/n部/r/n作为质押/r/n摩根斯坦利提供/r/n30/r/n亿/r/n具体包括循/r/n4/r/n并/r/n购/r/n协/r/n议/r/n体/r/n现/r/n了/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n对/r/n于/r/n菲/r/n尔/r/n德/r/n垂/r/n直/r/n型/r/n的/r/n认/r/n可/r/n和/r/n对/r/n其/r/n企/r/n业/r/n文/r/n化/r/n的/r/n尊/r/n1/r/n/r/n但中国银行纽约分行一家就提供了超过/r/n50%/r/n的并/r/n购/r/n在没/r/n有/r/n支持的情/r/n下/r/n国内银行不可能对一家企业提供如/r/n此/r/n规模的并购融资/r/n国/r/n家/r/n支持是双汇/r/n功收购的重要因素。/r/n2/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n和/r/n/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n自/r/n/r/n2002/r/n/r/n年/r/n起/r/n就/r/n存/r/n在/r/n长/r/n期/r/n往/r/n来/r/n。/r/n据/r/n公/r/n开/r/n资/r/n料/r/n显/r/n示/r/n，/r/n万/r/n隆/r/n每/r/n年/r/n出/r/n访/r/n美/r/n国，都会前往/r/nSFD/r/n公/r/n司/r/n学习，与/r/nSFD/r/n董事长卢特尔三世关系密切。此次收购，是/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n在长期互动，互相观察，彼此了解到达一定程度上的融合，减轻了并购的/r/n3/r/n、合理规避国/r/n内/r/n限/r/n开/r/n发以来/r/n，/r/n针/r/n对国内/r/n企/r/n业/r/n进行国/r/n际/r/n并/r/n购/r/n的/r/n和/r/n审核已/r/n经/r/n采/r/n取了一/r/n系/r/n列“/r/n简/r/n过程当中/r/n不/r/n乏“掣肘/r/n。通常情/r/n况/r/n下，并购/r/n都/r/n需要事先/r/n获/r/n得/r/n部/r/n门/r/n的支持，/r/n无/r/n形/r/n的双汇发展公司几乎没有法律上的联系，可以由此减少在国内的相/r/n关/r/n手续。/r/n4/r/nSFD/r/n/r/n公司的股东。这些公司自身具有/r/n过程当中，通过自/r/n身/r/n和/r/n能力，极大的便利了双汇国际的收购过程/r/n5/r/n、淡/r/n化/r/n，减轻海外并购政治风险/r/n。/r/n此/r/n次/r/n并/r/n购/r/n案/r/n中/r/n，/r/n向/r/n双/r/n汇/r/n提/r/n供/r/n融/r/n资/r/n的/r/n/r/n8/r/n/r/n家/r/n银/r/n行/r/n中/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n家/r/n是/r/n银/r/n行/r/n，中/r/n银/r/n有/r/n限/r/n公/r/n/r/n一、图表/r/n（一）/r/n图/r/n图/r/n /r/n菲尔德/r/n2009-2013/r/n年营业/r/n收入及同比增/r/n图/r/n /r/n菲尔德/r/n2009-2013/r/n年净利/r/n润及同比增/r/n图/r/n3 /r/n双/r/n汇/r/n2009-2013/r/n年净利润及同比增长图/r/n4 /r/n双汇/r/n与/r/n菲尔德/r/nROA/r/n对比图/r/n图/r/n /r/n图/r/n6 /r/n双汇/r/n与/r/n菲尔德/r/nROA/r/n对比/r/n图图/r/n7 /r/n图/r/n8 /r/n双汇收/r/n购/r/n菲尔德过程/r/n图图/r/n9 /r/n图/r/n /r/n图/r/n11 /r/n初始/r/n股利为/r/n0.85/r/n/r/n时估值三维图/r/n图/r/n12 /r/n图/r/n13 /r/n双汇与/r/nSFD/r/n公司收购定价博弈过程图/r/n图/r/n14/r/n/r/n并购/r/n后双汇与/r/nSFD/r/n公/r/n司/r/n收益率脉冲响应/r/n图图/r/n15/r/n/r/n并购/r/n前双汇与/r/nSFD/r/n公/r/n司/r/n收益率脉冲响应图图/r/n16/r/n/r/n双汇/r/n发展与/r/nSFD/r/n公/r/n司/r/nCAR/r/n值图/r/n图/r/n17 /r/n并购/r/n后双汇/r/nROA/r/n、/r/nROE/r/n变化趋势/r/n图图/r/n18 /r/n（二）/r/n表/r/n表/r/n1 /r/n双/r/n汇/r/n并购/r/nSFD/r/n公司/r/nSWOT/r/n分析表/r/n2 /r/n双汇国/r/n际三/r/n类/r/n及收