中国粉末冶金结构件的现状和未来发展趋势CurrentSt课件

1、中国粉末冶金结构件的现状和未来发展趋势Current Status and Development Trend of Structural PM Part Production in China中国粉末冶金结构件的现状和未来发展趋势Current S前 言 Foreword中国的粉末冶金结构件生产领域四十年来在国家产业政策护持下，经历了曲折和磨练，当前已经进入高速发展期。虽然还在起步阶段，但增长速度超过国民经济的增长。特别是我国加入WTO后，使本行业融入国际产业链，给行业内的发展带来了巨大的空间。随之而来的是国外著名厂家的进入以及行业内部竞争的加剧。然而不管行业竞争如何剧烈，新一轮的发展期必将

2、到来，而且业已来临 。Under the support of national industry policy over 40 years, structual PM part production in China experienced ordeal and progress, now, it is replaced by a rapid growth period. Alough it is still at initial stage, the growth rate has already higher than that of Chinas GDP. The industry i

3、s becoming part of world industry chain after the entry of WTO, which attracts prestigious international player and intense domestic competition, however a new round of strong growth is inevitably coming, and already here.前 言 Foreword中国的粉末冶金结构件生产领域一、回 顾I. Review一、回 顾I. Review前五年的高速发展 Rapid Growth of

4、 Past 5 Years指标名称单位2000年2001年2002年2003年2004年年均增长Growth工业产值Output Value万元10,000RMB11074214491117858720306220768717.02%销售收入Sales万元10,000RMB93883.313261416498818953119218919.20%利 润Profit万元10,000RMB7670.8810115522190362311731.76%制品重量Weight吨Tonne366944960561361739008512723.40%主要粉末冶金结构件生产厂家（34）主要经济指标情况（见图

5、）Production of major 34 manufacturers for the past five years前五年的高速发展 Rapid Growth of Past前五年的高速发展Rapid Growth of Past 5 Years主要粉末冶金结构件生产厂家（34）前5年发展情况（见图）Production of major 34 manufacturers for the past five years平均增长19.1%前五年的高速发展Rapid Growth of Past 前五年的新增企业Newcomers of the Past 5 Years单位：家年均增长速度1

6、0%这些厂家的出现使全国粉末冶金制品总量增加10%左右These newcomers makes Chinas PM production grow about 10%.其中：1亿以上： 55000万以上：102000万以上：15Over 100 mil.RMB: 5Over 100 mil.RMB: 10Over 100 mil.RMB: 15前五年的新增企业Newcomers of the Past前五年的销售量增长Sales Growth in the Past 5 Years20%的新增销售额来自原有的企业10%的新增销售额来自新加入的企业新企业的加入使全国粉末冶金销售总量每年增长达3

7、0%以上Over 30% annual growth in sales前五年的销售量增长Sales Growth in the 1. 产品单一 Limited range of products 2. 规模小 Small scale3. 技术薄弱 Unadvanced technology4. 以低廉的中低档产品恶性竞争 Winning the market by vicious price reduction5. 发展快 Rapid growth6. 机动灵活 Flexible中国中小粉末冶金企业特点The Features of Chinas Middle and Small PM Com

8、panies1. 产品单一 Limited range of pro二、机遇与挑战II. Opportunity & Challenge二、机遇与挑战II. Opportunity & Chal本行业的机遇 Opportunity for the industry中国将成为国际产业链中的制造业大国，兼备巨大的市场, 雄厚的制造能力及低廉的成本。 China will become a large manufacturer as part of international industry chain, with huge market, productive capacity and low

9、cost.中国汽车工业（粉末冶金制品最大的客户）的发展将会给本行业带来极大的机遇。 The strong growth of Chinas automotive industry (biggest customer for PM components) is bringing precious opportunity to PM business.3. 国际制造业正在加速向中国转移，粉末冶金制品的出口前景广阔。 World manufacturing industry is accelerating outsourcing business to China, which means a br

10、ight future of export.本行业的机遇 Opportunity for the in汽车工业发展给行业带来春天Automotive Industry Brings Spring to PM Industry2004年全国粉末冶金制品结构 Market Structure 2004中国汽车用粉末冶金零件与国外相差甚远，在轿车上的距离更远。Chinas automotive PM structrual part production is far from international level, especially passenger car. 全世界轿车年产4000万辆，而

11、中国轿车2004年达230万辆，占6%Chinas passenger car output in 2004 is only 2.3 mil, 6% of world output, 40 mil.汽车工业发展给行业带来春天Automotive Indus 中国汽车产业发展政策出台，有利于推动实现自主开发、自主发展，创立自主的品牌，实现国内国外两个市场并举，在扩大内需的同时，开拓国际市场，中国在不久将成为世界汽车大国The initiation of Chinas “Automotive Industry Development Policy” gives strong support to

12、independent product design, development and brand. It also encourages both domestic and oversea markets. China will become large automobile manufacturer in the near future.汽车工业的发展，给粉末冶金行业带来了施展才能的空间（见图）汽车发展给行业带来春天 Automotive Industry Brings Spring to PM Industry 中国汽车产业发展政策出台，有利于推动实现自主开著名整机厂希望粉末冶金结构件本

13、土化OEMs are looking forward to localizing PM parts国内轿车整机厂OEMs国产化比例Localization大众 VW70%飞亚特 Fiat40%现代 Hyundai35%丰田 Toyota20%本田 Honda20%通用 GM10%福特 Ford1%国际著名汽车企业已大部分进入中国，而粉末冶金结构件国产化只有25%30%。Most world major OEMs have entered China, but PM structural part localization is only 25-30%. 著名整机厂希望粉末冶金结构件本土化OEM

14、s are lo出口市场 Export Market不要几年随着中国粉末冶金汽车零件出口批量的加大，有可能引发对国际价格体系的冲击。Within couple of years, along with growing amout of Chinese PM exports, the world pricing system will be shocked.国际汽车零件的采购机构已经瞄准中国，中国汽车用粉末冶金的价格只有国际市场的40-50%。汽车零部件的出口将成为本行业的一个重要市场。The purchasing departments of major OEMs worldwide are

15、aiming at China where PM component price is only 40-50% as high as international price. Oversea customers will become an important market to our industry.出口市场 Export Market不要几年随着中国粉末冶挑战和困难 Chanllenge & Obstacle中低端产品的价格恶性竞争，某些零件平均每克制品甚至低于人民币0.015元。 Cut-throat pricing competition on medium-low end pro

16、duct, some unit price is even lower than RMB0.015/g.2. 原材料的价格的高歌猛进，主机厂的不断压价，利润空间受压，我预计今年行业每吨制品平均利润要下降20%左右。 Roaring price rising of material and cost reduction pressure from OEM are squeezing the profit margin. I estimate that 20% downturn will be seen on profit this year.3. 目前国内对高端汽车零件生产技术尚不成熟，因而这部

17、分市场可能暂时还是可望而不可及。 Chinas manufacturing technology for high end automotive components are not mature enough yet, so far we can only call it potential market.挑战和困难 Chanllenge & Obstacle中低三、趋势III. Trend三、趋势III. Trend世界著名企业逐鹿中国（趋势一）Trend I: International Players纷纷在国内合资或独资建立工厂，将在今后五年内大显身手。 They are formin

18、g JVs or sole companies, great influence will be seen in five years.由于中国汽车的需求量不断攀升，各国列强纷纷登陆中国，现在正在进入的和准备进入的有：They are coming:XXX （Korea）XXX（US）XXXX（US）XXXXX（Canada）XX（Japan）世界著名企业逐鹿中国（趋势一）Trend I: Inter质量求新高、价格创新低（趋势二）Trend II: High Quality & Low Price平均价格2000年5分/克下降到3分/克左右，年均下降10%Average price:￥0.0

19、5/g in 2000 to ￥0.03/gAnnual reduction: 10% 用户在产品配套过程中，不断提出新的要求Voice of customers:行业内竞争力加强Intense competition主机厂不断压价Pricing press from OEMs新企业对老企业的挑战Challenge from newcomers小企业对大企业的挑战Challenge from small companies价格新低Low price汽车类产品为例Automotive质量新高High quality高精度、高密度要求High precision & density外观要求Exce

20、llent appearance配套服务要求Product family质量求新高、价格创新低（趋势二）Trend II: Hig国产优质原材料将逐步替代进口材料（趋势三）Trend III: Quality Chinese Material will Replace Imports盈利空间缩小Less profit利润率 Profit 20%进口原材料的价格一路上扬，成品粉价格不断跟着上升 (04年10月-05年3月)Rocketing price (Oct.04-Mar.05)60%27%100%镍粉Nickel铜粉Copper钼粉Molybdenum铁粉Iron20%同等国内外原材料价格

21、差Price gap between domestic and foreign material 国产优质原材料将逐步替代进口材料（趋势三）Trend II优质国产设备将被普遍采用（趋势四）Trend IV: Quality Chinese Machines will be Universally Accepeted为消除降成本带来的压力从重视引进设备到重视国产优质设备Cutting cost by using domestical machines进口压机和电炉十分昂贵 Expensive imported press and furnace2. 近几年，国产压机和电炉性能不断提高 Qual

22、ity of domestic press and furnace has been continuously improved in recent years.3. 中低档产品用国产压机有成本优势 Domestic press is favored to make middle-low products.4. 中国生产压机的厂家从10家增加到到目前近30家 The number of Chinese press suppliers increased from 10 to 30国产同等性能和吨位的机械压机价格是进口压机的三分之一Similar Chinese press with same

23、property and tonnage only costs 1/3 of imported press price.优质国产设备将被普遍采用（趋势四）Trend IV: Qu高、中、低三类产品自动分工（趋势五）Trend V: Classification of High, Middle and Low Products这种分化将有利于专业化程度的提高、有利于质量的提高、有利于产品成本的下降。This classification will promote specialization, high quality and cost saving.有规模有技术的企业将取得belongs to

24、 the companies with large scale and technology.有一定规模和实力的企业将取得belongs to the companies with certain scale and competitiveness.一般企业或小型企业将取得belongs to ordinary and small companies.高端产品High level product中端产品Middle level product低端产品Low level product高、中、低三类产品自动分工（趋势五）Trend V: Cl行业内企业加速联合、兼并（趋势六）Trend VI:

25、More Merge & Acquisition面对市场严峻的考验，各企业通过联合和兼并，保持自有的一块领地。Given the intense competition, manufacturers are trying to maintain the existing market by M&A.大企业考虑做大做强For big companies: How to become bigger and stronger中型企业考虑定位与合作For meddle companies: How to position itself and cooperate小型、微型企业考虑特色For small companies: Where is its advantage每个企业都在寻找自己的定位和方向，所以说联合、兼并是必然趋势Every company is looking for its own position and direction, so the M&A is inevitable. 行业内企业加速联合、兼