酒花市场快讯课件

1、酒花市场快讯课件酒花市场快讯课件World Crop and Acreage 世界酒花产量及种植面积Crop in mt产量（吨）Area in ha面积（公顷）World Crop and Acreage 世界酒花产量World Alpha Acid Balance世界Alpha 酸收支平衡表 2007 is estimatedAlpha 酸总量（吨）-2,000-1,500-10001,5002,00019941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007crop yearalpha acids in m

2、tSurplus / Deficit 种植年度盈余/欠缺World Alpha Acid Balance世界Alp2005 and 2007 World Market Shares2005&2007年度世界酒花市场份额2005 - Area in ha2005 - Alpha in mt2007 - Area in ha2007 - Alpha in mt2007 is estimated2005年度面积（公顷）2005年度甲酸产量（吨）2007年度酒花面积（公顷）2007年度甲酸产量（吨）德国 美国 捷克 英国 中国 其他2005 and 2007 World Market Sha Area

3、 and Crop Result 种植面积及产量10 Review of Growing Conditions in 2007 2007年种植环境条件回顾 8 Forward Contract Volume 预售酒花量15 Development of Varieties 品种开发13Germany 德国 Alpha Acids 甲酸12 Area and Crop Result 种植面积及产Germany - Temperature (average)德国平均气温表2 3 4 5 6 7 8Germany - Temperature (averageGermany - Precipitati

4、on (mm/m2)德国降雨量（毫米/)2 3 4 5 6 7 8Germany - Precipitation (mm/m2Germany - Area and Crop Results德国-酒花种植面积及产量Crop in mtArea in ha2007 is estimated面积（公顷）产量（吨）Germany - Area and Crop ResultGermany - Area and Crop Results德国面积及产量2007 is estimated 2007预计值Germany - Area and Crop ResultGermany - Alpha Acids i

5、n %德国-甲酸含量百分比(EBC Toluol 7.4, at harvest)EBC7.4法检测Source: AHA (Working Group on Hop Analysis)数据来自酒花分析工作组Germany - Alpha Acids in %德国-Hallertau Acreage哈拉道地区种植面积 Area in ha2007 is estimated07年预计值（公顷）赫尔斯布鲁克 珍珠 斯巴克精选 传统 北方酿造 马格努门 托拉斯 赫尔库勒丝Hallertau Acreage哈拉道地区种植面Germany - Forward Contract Volume Spring

6、 2006德国2006年春季预售合同量Germany - Forward Contract VolGermany - Forward Contract Volume Spring 2007德国2007年春季预售合同量Germany - Forward Contract VolGermany - Forward Contract Volume Spring 2008德国2008年春季预售合同量Germany - Forward Contract VolHigh Alpha Sector高甲酸酒花Total acreage increased by 526 ha (= 8 %) in 2007.

7、While the acreage of Galena (- 18 %), Millenium (- 13 %) and Warrior (- 22 %) was reduced, CTZ increased by 21 %.2007年，美国高甲酸酒花总种植面积增加了526公顷（增长率为8%）。格林纳种植面积下降18%， Millenium下降13%， Warrior下降22%。与此相反， CTZ的种植面积增加了21%。Despite a volume increase of 1.264 mt (= 6 %) the total alpha decreased by 93 mt (= 11 %

8、). The poor alpha yield resulted in significant short deliveries.美国高甲酸酒花总产量增加了1.264吨（增幅为6%），但甲酸的总产量下降了93吨（降幅为11%）。酒花甲酸含量偏低导致了严重的供货短缺。Just like in Europe the spot market was very small and prices reached all time highs. 和欧洲市场上演的情形相似，现货市场可供应的酒花非常有限，酒花价格持续走高。Crop 2008 is sold out, both by growers and d

9、ealers. 2008年度酒花均被种植者和商贩售出。We estimate the total acreage in the US will grow by approx. 2.800 to 2.900 ha for crop 2008. 预计2008年，美国酒花种植总面积将会增长28002900公顷。United States Hop Market美国酒花市场High Alpha SectorUnited StatesUSA - Area and Crop Result美国种面积及产量Area in ha面积（公顷）Production in mt产量（吨）2007 is estimate

10、d产量 面积USA - Area and Crop Result美国Area in ha面积（公顷）USA Varieties美国-品种 2007 is estimated高甲酸 苦花 香花Area in haUSA Varieties美国-USA - Alpha Acids in %美国-甲酸含量百分比USA - Alpha Acids in %Czech Republic - Area and Production捷克共和国-面积及产量Area in ha2007 is estimatedProduction in mt产量（吨）面积（公顷）萨兹 Czech Republic - Area

11、 and Prod The Saaz hop acreage has been reduced for 7 consecutive years (from 5.913 down to 4.843 ha). A further decline can be expected.捷克酒花面积已持续削减了7年，总面积从5913公顷下降到了4843公顷。预计这种下降情况仍将持续。 Low revenues due to low priced forward contracts and cost increases did not allow growers to renew their trellies

12、 and root stock.预售合同价格低迷导致了酒花种植者的低收入，而成本的增加又使得种植者无力更新他们的棚架和酒花苗。 40 % of the Saaz Saazer root stock is more than 20 years old. Consequently the plants are susceptible to pests and diseases and increasingly weak in yield and alpha content.40%的萨兹酒花苗已经生长了20年。因此，这些酒花的抗病虫害能力、产量以及甲酸含量都已经减弱。 The cost of pro

13、duction inputs (fertilizer, pesticides, energy, labor, etc.) increased rapidly and has essentially reached the level of Western European farms.种植投入成本（化肥、农药、能源、劳力）迅速增长，以达到西欧农场的水平。Since 1999 the Czech Crown continues to appreciate against the Euro. The exchange rate went down from 35 CZK/EUR in 2001 t

14、o 25 CZK/EUR at present.从1999年起，捷克货币克朗对欧元的汇率持续走高。汇率已经从2001年的35克朗/欧元升高现在的25克朗/欧元。 Production costs in 2000 (150.000 CZK) were at around EUR 4,30/kg at the then prevalent exchange rate of 35. Todays production costs are calculated by the Saaz Hop Institute to be around 208.000 CZK, which is equivalent

15、 to EUR 8,30/kg based on the current exchange rate of 25.2000年，基于35 克朗/欧元的汇率，酒花的生产成本（15000克朗）大约在4.3欧元/公斤。而基于目前的汇率25克朗/欧元，据萨兹酒花学院计算，目前的酒花生产成本大概在208，000克朗，折算后为8.30欧元/公斤。Czech Republic - Situation and Outlook捷克共和国市场信息及展望 The Saaz hop acreage has been In contrast to their colleagues in Germany or the US

16、 the Czech hop growers did not benefit from the high spot market prices in 2006 and 2007 due to low yields and short deliveries of their existing forward contract quantities. 受较低产量以及现有预售合同量短缺的影响，与德美同行相比，捷克的酒花种植者并没有在2006及2007年的高价现货市场上获利。 Nevertheless, the Saaz growers demanded price increases before

17、delivering crops 2006 and 2007. In order to secure delivery these increases were borne by the trade and not passed on to our customers.但是，捷克的酒花生产者在2006及2007年交货销售开始之前已经要求过酒花涨价。但为了挽救市场，酒花行业内部承载了涨价行为，涨价并没有影响到我们的客户。 The huge farm plots of the Czech Republic are very suitable for efficiently growing cere

18、al or energy plants. The production of these crops does not entail high fixed costs and is less risky as the crop can be changed each year depending on the market conditions. Cereal prices have doubled over the last two years.捷克共和国广袤的农场非常适合面积正在快速增加的燕麦以及能量型作物的生长，这类作物的产量并不依附于高成本的投入。除此之外，种植这类作物的风险较小，应为

19、种植者可以根据不同的市场情况调整种植结构。在过去的2年，燕麦的价格已经翻了2番。 Hop production of the Saaz variety can only be sustained if growers are prevented from switching to other production alternatives. This requires price incentives that ensure high enough returns to allow for investments and renovation of facilities.如果种植者不被允许改种

20、其他替代品种的话，萨兹的产量仅能维持现在的水平。这种局面要求酒花价格较高，以保证取得收益后在投资或改进设备。Czech Republic - Situation and Outlook捷克共和国市场信息及展望 In contrast to their colleaguOther European Countries Crop Results and Area其他欧洲国家和地区种植面积及产量Production in mtArea in ha2007 is estimated产量 面积产量（吨）面积（公顷）Other European Countries CropOther Hop Produc

21、ing Countries Crop Results and Area其他欧洲国家种植面积及产量Production in mtArea in ha2007 is estimatedOthers: South Africa, Japan, Argentina, India产量（吨）面积（公顷）澳大利亚新西兰其他总面积Other Hop Producing Countries China - Area and Production 中国面积及产量Production in mtArea in ha2007 is estimated产量（吨）面积（公顷）China - Area and Produ

22、ction 中Chinese Beer and Hop Market 中国啤酒及酒花市场 Overview China Beer Market 2007: 2007啤酒市场综述2007 estimated output 390 M Hl, + 11% over 2006预计产量为3.9亿 Growth not yet affected by cost and price increases 成本及价格增长尚未影响啤酒产量的增长 Growth rate in 2008 may slow down to 7-8% 2008年啤酒产量增长率将下降到7-8/% Strong downward tren

23、d in wort content and bitterness啤酒中麦芽汁含量及苦味值下降势头强劲 Estimated alpha demand of 1.000 mt 甲酸需求量预计为1000吨Overview China Hop Market 2007:2007酒花市场综述 Total production of 9.500 mt总产量为9500吨 Average alpha 5.0% or less, est. alpha supply of 520 mt平均酸含量为5.0%，预计可供应520吨甲酸 Farm yields, alpha, and quality worst ever

24、observed by JBS据巴特哈斯调查，农场的产量、甲酸、质量都将达到最糟糕的状态 Price peaked above RMB 100,000.- /mt 最高价格可达人民币10万元/吨以上 Inventories are completely depleted, no alternatives available库存已被完全消耗，没有第二个选择Chinese Beer and Hop Market 中For Further Information - Please Visit our Website更多详尽信息，请访问我们的网站。With infos about the follow

25、ing members of the Barth-Haas Group:巴特哈斯集团成员的更多信息：For Further Information - PleaEmail: reinhold.kugeljohbarth.dewww.BarthHaasG Thanks for your kind attention!谢谢大家！Email: reinhold.kugeljohbarth殜怿赋媥绣猵睚馳膽窋鞾麭魕毤潝鄂荍隗寢軴幬吪毴崿椨体蹬熰擱桘葈蔋恹貧詛瓕齸屁缤陃偂篌掩蕎笭磵鼑镨叒雴泏矂儿缉蒔茨釱銒檱茙骿犬鶗蔯烊笠悱瑕脾狘摙殱囮豍柢窳铄遾爤綅趚擞蘶宐松吏沖婥璖瘓薦逥仅纉甏橒铥鑇溳蒃霅卺岍渱踙煠很墙

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