互联网与住宿行业：可替代的住宿前景分享

1、Global Research25 January 2019Internet & LodgingUBS Evidence Lab inside: Sharing The Alternative Accommodation LandscapeThree Pivotal Questions & Our TakeAs a follow up to our Oct. 18 deep dive ( HYPERLINK /shared/d2rezq2RtZ0 Link), in this report we tackle three pivotal questions on the Alt Accom.

2、space: 1) How are consumers adopting Alt. Accom.? LTM adoption was roughly flat vs. 2016 with a counter that meaningful uptick in respondents likelihood of using Alt. Accom. over NTM & awareness of global brands is a positive; 2) What is the current competitive landscape? We believe the market is la

3、rgely comprised of 3-4 main players (Airbnb, EXPE/HomeAway, BKNG & TRIP) with a long tail of other booking platforms; & 3) What impact will Alt. Accom. have on OTAs & hotels over next 3-5 years? We expect online Alt. Accom. bookings (US, Europe & China) to be +19% 17-22 CAGR, with the fastest growth

4、 coming from China (60% CAGR). Our preferred pick in the OTA sector is EXPE (solid room night growth aided by exposure to Alt. Accom. via AWAY & the prospect of lapping key investments that can drive operating leverage in 19/20).UBS Evidence Lab Survey & US Spend Tracker InsightsAnalyzing data from

5、UBS Evidence Lab, we provide results from our Alt. Accom. Survey & US Spend Tracker data. Key takeaways include: a) the cohort of travelers using Alt. Accom. appears more valuable vs. non-users (higher earning, longer trips, spend more per trip, etc.) & looks similar to Amazon Prime member demograph

6、ics; b) Airbnb leads in brand awareness, incidence rates & repeat customer rates; c) HomeAway leads in ticket size (both nights stayed & spend per night) & is viewed as the safer platform; &Airbnb growth in the US appears to primarily come from new customer growth & purchase frequency (as opposed to

7、 increasing ticket size).Mildly positive for Lodging stocks, which are most reliant on business travel Business travelers that use traditional lodging plan to take more trips, while those that use alternative accommodations are planning fewer trips. And the % of people staying in alternative accommo

8、dation for purely business is down in the US vs two years ago. And since Airbnb spend per trip is decreasing while rev grows, it suggests Airbnb growth may be from lower-spending new customers in the travel ecosystem. US hotels have had record occupancy for last 5 consecutive years, despite the grow

9、th of alternative accommodation, even as US hotel supply has hit record levels.Internet ServicesAmericasEquitiesEric J. SheridanAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:eric.sheridan eric.sheridan+1-212-713 9310Robin M. FarleyAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:robin.farley robin.farley+1-212-713 2060Jarrod Castle, CFAAnalyst

10、 HYPERLINK mailto:jarrod.castle jarrod.castle+44-20-756 88883Benjamin MillerAssociate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:ler ler+1-212-713 3629Arpine KocharyanAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:arpine.kocharyan arpine.kocharyan+1-212-713 2086Jacob Westphal Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:jacob.westphal j HYPERLINK m

11、ailto:acob.westphal acob.westphal+1-212-713 1483Louise WiseurAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:louise.wiseur louise.wiseur+44-20-756 81234 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 54. UBS

12、 does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investme

13、nt decision.Executive SummaryInternet & Lodging 25 January 2019 2Alternative Accommodations Pivotal QuestionsGiven our view that incremental growth of core lodging bookings in developed economies could be harder to come by and alternative accommodations will increasingly be a key driver for the OTAs

14、 (EXPE & BKNG) we analyzed UBS Evidence Lab survey data of 4,500 consumers in the US, UK & France, as well as UBS Evidence Lab Spend Tracker data in the US to help addresspivotal questions.Pivotal Question 1: How do consumers view alternative accommodations as it relates to current adoption and futu

15、re intentions?Pivotal Question 2: What does the current alternative accommodations competitive landscape look like?Pivotal Question 3: What impact will alternative accommodations have on OTAs & hotels over next 3-5 years?Conclusion: The percent of respondents who have stayed in an alternative accomm

16、odation over the LTM was roughly flat vs. 2016. That said, we saw meaningful uptick in awareness for Airbnb and HomeAway globally, as well as VRBO and Abritel in their key markets. Further, the percent of respondents citing they were most likely to using an alternative accommodation over NTM increas

17、ed for all cohorts. We also found the cohort of traveler who uses alternative accommodation appears more valuable than non-users (higher earning, longer trips, spends more per trip, etc.)Conclusion: UBS Evidence Lab data indicates Airbnb has the leading brand recognition, conversion, purchase freque

18、ncy and loyal customer base among standalone alternative accommodation platforms. That said, HomeAway (and their individual owned brands) skews toward longer stays & higher average ticket size relative to Airbnb, to go along with healthy levels of brand awareness, traffic and conversion. While Booki

19、ng Holdings gives limited disclosure on their alternative accommodations business, we believe they remain among the top players in the space with a globally scaled inventory base integrated on their core website.Conclusion: We expect online alternative accommodation bookings (US, Europe & China) to

20、grow at a 19% 17-22 CAGR, with the fastest growth coming from China (60% CAGR). We believe that, at a minimum, OTAs should be able to maintain share of alternative accommodation bookings. In addition, most OTAs stand to benefit from incremental bookings in this space given their exposure. While comp

21、etition has heated up with Airbnb continuing to gain traction (albeit at a decelerating pace of gross bookings growth), EXPE and BKNG continue to invest in this space by growing listings for alternative lodging on their flagship sites & other owned brands (HomeAway for EXPE, etc.).Internet & Lodging

22、 25 January 2019 3Alternative Accommodations Summary in PicturesWhile the % of respondents that cite having stayed in an alternative accommodation is flat vs. our prior survey,36%36%23%40%respondents likelihood of using alternative accommodations over NTM increased for both cohorts (those that have/

23、have not used Alt. Accom. in the past)60%50%40%30%20%10%0%201420162018201420162018Users- Alternative AccommodationNon-Users- Alternative Accommodation Longer stays (More than 7 nights)Shorter stays (Fewer than 7 nights)Source: UBS Evidence Lab30%20%10%0%201420162018Source: UBS Evidence LabFurther, p

24、eople who use alternative accommodations are a valuable cohort relative to non-users given they stay more nights per trip (and travel more frequently)2.8 2.82.7 LeisureBusinessLeisureBusinessLeisureBusiness20142016201854321and look fairly similar to Amazon Prime Members.Ac

25、commodation Accommodation MembersAmazon PrimeNon-Users - AlternativeUsers - AlternativeCollege Degree (%)37%32%39%Post-graduate Degree (%)21%15%19%Employed Full-time (%)56%45%56%Age465242Household Income (US)$91,205$74,404$86,000No Children (%)47%62%60%0Users - Alternative Accommodation Non-Users -

26、Alternative AccommodationSource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabInternet & Lodging 25 January 2019 4Alternative Accommodations Summary in Pictures100%80%60%40%20%0%Airbnb has the leading brand awareness among alternative accommodation platformswith indexed total monthly spend in the US 1.5-

27、2.0 x HomeAway.Alternative Accommodation PlatformsOTA/Metasearch7060504030T VRBO.com HouseTrip FlipKWimdu 9 TripAdvisor Trivago Expedia B HKayak LTravelocity Priceline Orbitz Hotwire eDreams Skyscanner Cheap TicketsT20AirBnBHomeAwayBedandBVacationRentals10Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Ma

28、y-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-180Source: UBS Evidence LabAirbnbHomeAwaySource: UBS Evidence Lab$350$300$250$200$150$100$50$0T

29、hat said, average spend per night at HomeAway is larger than Airbnb$289$283$239$228$207$216 $213$168$103$119$89$68ExpediaTripAdvisor600500400300HouseTripFlipK200with higher indexed annualized spend per customer as well.AirBnBHOwnersDirect.co.ukHomeAwayVRBO.comVacationRentalsAbritel.frBedandBVacation

30、 Home RentalsNiumba1000Source: UBS Evidence LabAirbnbHomeAway31OCT201631OCT201731OCT2018Source: UBS Evidence LabInternet & Lodging 25 January 2019 5Alternative Accommodations Summary in PicturesWe expect online alternative accommodation bookings (US, Europe & China) to grow at a 19% 17-22 CAGR, with

31、 the fastest growth coming from China (60% CAGR).$120,000 $100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,00050%40%30%20%10%By 2022E, we believe online alternative accommodation bookings will represent 40% of total online bookings.50%$02012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022EUS Europe Chin

32、aSource: Phocuswright, UBS estimatesHomeAway room night growth is expected to be 1,000- 2,000bps higher than core lodging at EXPE over the next few years0%100%41%39%36%33%30%26%20%22%23%15% 15%15%16%2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022ESource: Phocuswright, UB

33、S Evidence Labas they continue the transition to more transaction listings/bookings (and less subscriptions).40%30%20%80%42%36%36%33%30%28%26%25%24%23%23%19%12%11%14% 14%14%13%14%10%11%12%11% 12%85%64%39%28%21%16%11%9%60%40%10%20%0%Q1 17Q3 17Q1 18Q3 18Q1 19EQ3 19EHomeAway Room Nights GrowthCore Lodg

34、ing Room Nights Growth0%2016E2017E2018E2019E2020E2021E2022E2023ESubcription ListingsTransaction ListingsSubscription BookingsSource: Company reports, UBS estimatesSource: Company reports, UBS estimatesInternet & Lodging 25 January 2019 6Internet & Lodging 25 January 2019 7Alternative Accommodations

35、Summary Competitive PositioningAirbnbBooking HoldingsExpedia (HomeAway)TripAdvisor (Flipkey, etc.)StrengthsStrong brand recognition and affinity with an engaged host community and customer baseGlobal platform across 81k cities and 191+ countriesLeading conversion among standalone alternative accommo

36、dation platforms analyzedHigh purchase frequency among customer baseLoyal customer base with high repeat booking ratesPerceived as having attractive supply base given location of accommodation was top reason cited for using the platform (47% of respondents)Globally scaled inventory at 5.7m+ listings

37、 of Homes, Apartments & Unique Places to Stay (as of 3Q18)Does not charge a consumer fee, which likely helps with conversion100% of alternative accommodations inventory is instantly bookableCore competency in second homes in pure vacation destinations (primarily skewed to US geographically)Individua

38、l owned brands are among the leading players in brand awareness, traffic & conversionSkews toward longer stays & higher average ticket size relative to Airbnb (i.e. higher spend per customers)Repeat purchase rates have been stable over past few yearsPerceived as being a safe platform (both payment a

39、nd personal)UBS Evidence Lab Survey data indicates diverse inventory of entire home/apartment, private room and shared room type stays across their owned websitesSkews more toward longer stays & higher average ticket size relative to AirbnbOpen Issues / Areas of InvestmentGeographic/supply investmen

40、tsExperiencesInventory types (including Airbnb Plus & expansion of hotel inventory)Superhost / Superguest / Loyalty ProgramAirbnb for WorkFlights, Travel Content, etc.Limited disclosure has likely caused investors to give BKNG less credit for its alternative accommodation businessAs with its core lo

41、dging business, investments in supply for the Homes, Apartments & Unique Places to Stay segment are likely to continue as a means to increase traffic and conversion on the broader B platformGeographic expansion outside the USExpand supply of inventory in urban marketsContinued shift to pay-per-book

42、(from subscriptions)Higher percent of HomeAway customer base also uses Airbnb (relative to Airbnb customers also using HomeAway)Individual owned brands generally remain less competitive in brand awareness, traffic & conversionManagement has indicated that they are not investing incremental capital i

43、n the Rentals business. Instead, they are focused on growing the Experiences and Restaurants businesses within the Non-Hotel segmentSource: Company reports, UBSInternet & Lodging 25 January 2019 8Pivotal Question 1: How do consumers view alternative accommodations as it relates to current adoption a

44、nd future intentions?Has Alternative Accommodation Penetration Plateaued?The percent of respondents who said they have stayed in alternative accommodation lodging over the past 12 months was roughly flat compared to 2016. That said, we saw meaningful uptick in awareness for Airbnb and HomeAway globa

45、lly, as well as other websites in their key markets (i.e. VRBO and Abritel). Further, the percent of respondents citing they were most likely to using an alternative accommodation over NTM increased for all cohorts.2018 Alternative Accommodation Penetration Flat vs. 2016 Survey: 36% of total respond

46、ents cited having stayed at an alternative/shared accommodation in the last 12 months (flat vs. when we last conducted this survey in 2016, but up from 23% in 2014).Within this, 33% of leisure travelers said they have stayed in an alternative accommodation in the LTM (vs. 34% in 2016 and 19% in 2014

47、). Further, 26% of business travelers said they have stayed in an alternative accommodation lodging in the last 12 months (vs. 28% in 2016 and 14% in 2014)Awareness of Key Brands Continues to Increase Broadly: We% Respondents Stayed in Alternative Accommodation Lodging (LTM)36%36%23%40%30%20%10%0%20

48、1420162018Source: UBS Evidence Lab27%Alternative Accommodations Website Awarenessview the increase in awareness of key brands as a sign that thealternative accommodations market can still grow the pie ofconsumers using these lodging types, though we will continue to monitor penetration levels in fut

49、ure surveys.100%80%67%83%Airbnb awareness increased to 83% of total respondents60%(from 67% in 2016 and 26% in 2014)HomeAway awareness increased to 27% of total40%respondents (from 21% in 2016 and 22% in 2014)VRBO (owned by Expedia) awareness increased to 32% of US20%respondents (from 27% in 2016)26

50、%22%21%Abritel.fr (owned by Expedia) awareness increased to 61% of0%French respondents (from 52% in 2016 and 49% in 2014)201420162018Airbnb HomeAwayInternet & Lodging 25 January 2019 9Source: UBS Evidence LabNote: Total respondents; All RegionsAlternative Accommodation Preference ImprovingWed note p

51、reviously published results from the UBS Evidence Lab Travel Intentions Survey in October showed a slight pick-up in preference for shared accommodation lodging YoY. That said, the survey of 7k respondents across the US & Europe indicated Shared Accommodation remained behind Hotel, Motel or B&B and

52、Friends/relatives/colleagues in absolute terms.Hotel, Motel and B&B still Preferred Accommodation for Leisure Travel: On average, Leisure travelers cited staying at a Hotel, Motel or Bed & Breakfast the most (87% of respondents in 2018 vs. 85% in 2017). This was followed by Friends/relatives/colleag

53、ues (38% vs. 39% in 2017) and alternative/shared accommodation (23% vs. 20% in 2017). While the outlook for each type of accommodation over the next 12 months is lower than the past 12 months, wed note 2018 actuals exceeded 2017 respondent expectations by a couple hundred basis points each.Business

54、Travel Outlook for Alternative/Shared Accommodation Slightly Improved: While Hotel, Motel or B&B remains the most cited type of accommodation by respondents, wed note Shared Accommodation was cited by 15% in 2018 vs. 12% in 2017. Additionally, the percent of business traveler respondents expecting t

55、o stay in an alternative/shared accommodation increased to 17% from 14% in 2017.Leisure Travelers Preferred Accommodation Type (N12M vs P12M)83%Hotel or Motel or B&B87%81%85%37%Friends/relatives/colleagues38%37%39%21%Shared Accommodation23%20%20%15%Other16%16%16%1%None1%2%1%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 Ne

56、xt 12 mo.2018 Past 12 mo.2017 Next 12 mo.2017 Past 12 mo.Source: UBS Evidence LabBusiness Travelers Preferred Accommodation Type (N12M vs P12M)Internet & Lodging 25 January 2019 10Hotel or Motel or B&B77%5%79%78%Friends/relatives/colleagues17%15%20%5%Other11%12%11%10%None4%8%4%9%17%15%14%12%Shared A

57、ccommodation170%20%40%60%80%100%2018 Next 12 mo.2018 Past 12 mo.2017 Next 12 mo.2017 Past 12 mo.Source: UBS Evidence LabInternet & Lodging 25 January 2019 11Who is the Alternative Accommodation Traveler?Took 3 leisure trips in the past 12 monthsStayed a total of 14 nights during leisure travel over

58、past 12 monthsPlans to take 3 leisure trips in the next 12 months53% said they are most likely to book an alternative accommodation in NTM if taking a trip 7 nights47% do not have children46% have either one or two children37% have graduated from college and21% have a post-graduate degree56% are emp

59、loyed full-timeIs 46 years old (on average)Cleanliness / Quality & Price matter less than it does to non- users of alternative accommodationsReviews / Ratings & Uniqueness matter more than it does to non-users of alternative accommodationsHas a household income of $91k in US(on average)81% used alte

60、rnative accommodation for purposes of leisure travel only over LTMSource: UBS Evidence LabAlternative Accommodation Users Look Very Similar to Amazon Prime MembersOn a demographic basis, the cohort of users who have stayed in an alternative accommodation over the past 12 months looks fairly similar